26 results on '"Aylen J."'
Search Results
2. Climate change and the future occurrence of moorland wildfires in the Peak District of the UK
- Author
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Albertson, K., Aylen, J., Cavan, G, and McMorrow, J., Albertson, Kevin, Aylen, Jonathan, and Cavan, Gina
- Subjects
Climate change ,Ecosystem services ,Forecast ,Weather simulations· ,Wildfires - Abstract
We investigated the impact of climate change on the number of wildfires in the PeakDistrict uplands of northern England. Wildfires in peat can result in severe carbon loss and damage to water supplies, and fighting such fires is difficult and costly in such a remote location. The Peak District is expected to experience warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers. Local weather simulations from a weather generator were used to predict the future incidence and timing of fires. Wildfire predictions were based on past fire occurrence and weather over 27.5 yr. A Probit model of wildfire incidence was applied to simulated weather data, which were generated by a Markov process and validated against actual baseline weather data using statistical criteria and success in replicating past fire patterns. The impact of climate change on the phenology and ecology of moorland and on visitor numbers was considered. Simulations suggest an overall increase in occurrence of summer wildfires. The likelihood of spring wildfires is not reduced by wetter winter conditions; however, the chance of wildfires rises as rainfall decreases. Temperature rise has a non-linear impact, with the risk of wildfire occurrence rising disproportionately with temperature. Recreation use is a major source of ignition. Little change in wildfire incidence is projected in the near future, but as climate change intensifies, the danger of summer wildfires is projected to increase from 2070; therefore, ire risk management will be necessary in future. In addition, moorlands may have to be managed t reduce the chance of summer wildfires becoming catastrophic, with consequent damage to ecosystem services such as water supplies and peat carbon storage. Management measures may include controlled burning, grazing or mowing to remove fuel. Open asccess http://www.int-res.com/journals/cr/cr-specials/cr-special-24/
- Published
- 2010
3. Fire Interdisciplinary Research on Ecosystem Services (FIRES) Policy Brief
- Author
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McMorrow, J., Cavan, G., Walker, J., Aylen, J., Legg, C., Quinn, C., Hubacek, K., Thorp, S., Thomson. M. and Jones, M.
- Subjects
peatland ,heathland ,ecosystem services ,wildfire ,moorland - Published
- 2010
4. The impact of weather and climate on tourist demand: the case of Chester Zoo
- Author
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Aylen, J, Albertson, K, Cavan, G, Aylen, J, Albertson, K, and Cavan, G
- Abstract
Warmer, drier summer weather brought by global climate change should encourage use of outdoor leisure facilities. Yet few studies assess the effect of current weather and climate conditions upon visits to leisure attractions. Statistical time series models are used to analyse the short-run impact of weather and the long-run impact of climate upon visits to Chester Zoo, England. Temperature has a non-linear effect on visit levels. Daily visits rise with temperature up to a threshold around 21 °C. Thereafter visitor numbers drop on hot days. Visits are redistributed over time in accordance with the weather. Visitors discouraged by rainy weather one day turn up later when the weather improves. Otherwise, visitor behaviour is mainly influenced by the annual rhythm of the year and the pattern of public and school holidays. Out-of-sample tests suggest almost 70 % of the variation in visit levels can be explained by the combination of weather and time of year. Climate change is likely to redistribute visitors across the year. But it does not follow that “summer” visitor behaviour will transfer to spring and autumn. Day length, existing patterns of human activity and availability of leisure time constrain visit levels regardless of better weather. The main implication of potential climate change is the need for physical adaptation of the tourist environment as temperatures rise and rainfall diminishes in summer.
- Published
- 2014
5. Moorland Wild Fires in the Peak District National Park, Technical Report 3
- Author
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McMorrow, J., Aylen, J., Albertson, K., Cavan, G., Lindley, S.,Handley, J. and Karooni, R
- Subjects
Peak District National Park ,climate change ,wildfire ,moorland - Abstract
Warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the risk of frequent wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District National Park (PDNP) of northern England. Fires are costly to fight, damage the ecosystem, harm water catchments, cause erosion scars and disrupt transport. Fires release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Accurate forecasts of the timing of fires and high fire risk locations will aid the deployment of fire fighting resources.Both spatial modelling (identifying where risk of fire is highest, based on past fires) and temporal analysis (predicting when that risk is likely to be highest, based on preceding weather) were applied in this analysis. Firstly, multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) was used to spatially model the risk of reported wildfires in the Dark Peak area (northern part of the PDNP)), based on a 28-year record of fires from the PDNP rangers’ fire log. Fire risk was investigated using habitat and aspect maps to represent vulnerability to ignition, and distance from access features as a proxy for the likelihood of ignition sources. This showed that bare peat, eroding moorland and bilberry bog were the habitats with the most reported fires. Moorland restoration measures to revegetate bare peat and raise water tables should, therefore, also serve to reduce fire risk. Heather communities had the fewest reported fires, which suggests that management of heather, including rotational burning, is successful in reducing vulnerability to wildfire. Risk of a fire occurring and being reported is increased around access routes, with most fires occurring within 300m of roads and eroded paths, 750m of trampled paths, and within 2km of the Pennine Way. Additionally, there were significantly more reported fires on Access Land, with implications for increased fire risk since the extension of access land under CroW, but also for increased reporting. Topographic aspect has a considerable influence on the fire risk, with fires fewest on east-facing slopes.Secondly, a non-linear probit model is used to assess the chance of fires at different times of the year, days of the week and under various weather conditions. Analysis concludes that current and past rainfall damps fire risk, and the danger of fire increases with maximum daily temperature. Dry spells or recent fire activity also signal extra fire hazard. Certain days are fire prone, especially spring bank holidays, due to increased visitor numbers. Some months of the year are more risky, notably the April-May and July-August periods, reflecting the interplay between visitor numbers and the changing flammability of moorland vegetation. Flammability varies as seasonal plant phenology (the spring green wave) is superimposed upon summer soil moisture deficit. The model back-predicts earlier fires accurately. The number of fires is then forecast using future climate projections. Changes in climate variability and weather extremes generate most extra fire risk. Finally, a gradual rise in mean temperature was found to have only slight effect.The combination of climate modelling, temporal and spatial analysis is a powerful tool for predicting and managing future fire risk. There is much potential to produce a decision-making tool able to identify areas and times of highest risk, and to model the potential impact of fire risk management strategies under climate change scenarios.
- Published
- 2006
6. Climate change and the future occurrence of moorland wildfires in the Peak District of the UK
- Author
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Albertson, K, primary, Aylen, J, additional, Cavan, G, additional, and McMorrow, J, additional
- Published
- 2010
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7. The power of the durbin watson test when the errors are par(1)
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Albertson, K., primary, Aylen*, J., additional, and Lim†, K. B., additional
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- 2002
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8. Plant Size and Efficiency in the Steel Industry: An International Comparison
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Aylen, J.
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Steel industry ,Banking, finance and accounting industries ,Business - Published
- 1982
9. Any old iron?: the economics of scrap recycling.
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Aylen J., Albertson K., Aylen J., and Albertson K.
10. The Steel Industry in the New Millennium
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Gibellieri, E., Aylen, J., Ranieri, R., Istituto per la Cultura e la Storia d'Impresa, 'Franco Momigliano', Gibellieri, E., Aylen, J., Ranieri, R., and Istituto per la Cultura e la Storia d'Impresa, 'Franco Momigliano'
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- Steel industry and trade--European Union countries--Congresses, Steel industry and trade--Congresses
- Abstract
'This volume is divided into three sections, which correspond to the Conference's Working Group I on''Privatisation and New Business Strategies'', Working Group IV on the''The Social Dimension''and Working Group V on the''Steel Industry in the European Union''. This volume brings together papers by a world-wide selection of academics, leading steel executives, trade unionists and directors of international organisations. It focuses on the institutional changes that have affected the industry, comparing patterns of privatisation in different countries and analysing steel companies'global business strategies, the effects of restructuring on industrial relations, the changing impact of the EU and the evolution in the global regulatory environment of the steel industry'
- Published
- 1998
11. Performance and efficiency measurement in local authority building organisations
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Ruddock, L and Aylen, J
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other - Abstract
This work constitutes a study of the operations of local\ud authority building direct labour organisations (DLOs)\ud during the 1980s,\ud An overt aim of Part III of the 1980 Local Government,\ud Planning and Land Act was to improve efficiency in the\ud operations of local authority building direct labour\ud organisations (DLOs). Whilst the Act did not specify\ud how DLOs should be organised, the legislation on\ud accounting and accountability clearly had Important\ud organisational implications.\ud Even prior to 1981, some DLOs already obtained the\ud majority of work via competitive tender, had control\ud over their functions and had systems for demonstrating\ud their efficiency. Others were not operated in such ways\ud and fundamental changes were needed to successfully meet\ud the challenge of the new legislation.\ud By 1988, the Audit Commission admitted that DLO5 had\ud very largely been successful in meeting the competitive\ud requirements of the 1980 Act, but expressed concern over\ud the varying levels of effectiveness and efficiency of\ud operation that existed amongst organisations. An objective of the study is to look at the problems\ud associated with efficiency and productivity measurement\ud in the context of DLO performance. The Conservative\ud government of this period had a strong conniitment to the\ud improvement of efficiency of the public sector. In\ud other areas of public services, various forms of\ud performance Indicator were being employed to monitor\ud performance, but for a DLO the sole measure of\ud efficiency was the ability to meet the 5a target rate of\ud return. The concern with efficiency produced new\ud interest in the application of quantitative techniques\ud to provide methods of efficiency measurement.\ud This work undertakes a study of the problems associated\ud with efficiency and performance measurement In this\ud sector of the U.K. construction Industry.\ud The availability of appropriate data at the Individual\ud organisation level from 1981 onwards, enabled, for the\ud first time, viable lnter-DLO comparisons to be\ud undertaken at the micro-level and sectoral comparisons\ud to be made at the macro-level.\ud The data used In the study were obtained over a five\ud year period from a variety of sources of published and\ud unpublished sources. A unique database of expenditure\ud and revenue Information from over 150 DLOs has been\ud developed, which in many ways is even more comprehensive than the 'official' statistics collected by the\ud Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy.\ud Methods used for efficiency measurement\ud With the great emphasis placed on ensuring that the\ud public sector of the construction industry acts in an\ud efficient manner, the data are employed In various\ud methods for the measurement of efficiency.\ud 1. At the sector level, total factor productivity\ud neasurement is used to gauge the rate of growth of the\ud DLO sector of the industry.\ud 2. At the organisation level, 'Farrell' measures of\ud efficiency are used.\ud A model for measuring the efficiency of Individual\ud organisations is presented.\ud Data Envelopment Analysis I used to consider\ud inefficiency that raises Costs above their feasible\ud minimum.
12. A model of the construction project selection and bidding decision
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Skitmore, RM and Aylen, J
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T055.4 ,TA ,HD00280070 ,other ,built_and_human_env - Abstract
The thesis considers one of the central problems of corporate planning for a construction company, the project selection and bidding decision, and a model is developed for the entire decision environment. \ud \ud The nature of decision systems is examined and considered to consist of the identification, evaluation and selection from a range of options. Corporate decisions are discussed leading to the conclusion that a suitable model is needed.\ud \ud A basic model is proposed in which three outcome criteria consisting of people, money and property are required to be assessed, the values of the outcome criteria being determined by four project characteristics. Some approaches to the solution of multiple criteria problems are examined.\ud \ud The implications of time are next considered and the use of Gottinger's sequential machines examined as a means of modelling the complexities involved. Non-deterministic aspects of the problem are introduced which, together with dynamical considerations, suggest a model of intermediate complexity to be appropriate.\ud \ud The final chapters of the thesis concentrate on some ways in which the computational burden associated with the model can be reduced. The role of decision strategies is examined as a means of identifying the most suitable options. The suitability of probabilistic approaches to modelling non-deterministic aspects is investigated and an empirical analysis of three sets of bidding data is made to examine some possible simplifying assumptions.
13. Canada's Evolving Medicare: End-of-Life Care.
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MacPherson N, Montague T, Aylen J, Martin L, Gogovor A, Baxter S, and Nemis-White J
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- Aged, Canada, Hospice Care, Humans, National Health Programs, Suicide, Assisted, Terminal Care
- Abstract
A challenging issue in contemporary Canadian Medicare is the evolution of end-of-life care. Utilizing data from the 2016 and 2018 Health Care in Canada (HCIC) surveys, this paper compares the support and priorities of the adult public (n = 1500), health professionals (n = 400), and administrators (n = 100) regarding key components for end-of-life care just prior to and post legalization of medical assistance in dying (MAiD) in Canada. In 2016 and 2018, the public, health professionals and administrators strongly supported enhanced availability of all proposed end-of-life care options: pain management, hospice and palliative care, home care supports, and medically assisted death. In 2018, when asked which option should be top priority, the public rated enhanced medically assisted death first (32%), followed by enhanced hospice and palliative care (22%) and home care (21%). Enhanced hospice and palliative care was the top priority for health professionals (33%), while administrators rated enhanced medically assisted death first (26%). Despite legalization and increasing support for MAiD over time, health professionals have increasing fear of legal or regulatory reprisal for personal involvement in medically assisted death, ranging from 38% to 84% in 2018, versus 23% to 42% in 2016. While administrators fear doubled since 2016 (40%-84%), they felt the necessary system supports were in place to easily implement medically assisted death. Optimal management of end-of-life care is strongly supported by all stakeholders, although priorities for specific approaches vary. Over time, professionals increasingly supported MAiD but with a rising fear of legal/regulatory reprisal despite legalization. To enhance future end-of-life care patterns, continued measurement and reporting of implemented treatment options and their system supports, particularly around medically assisted death, are needed.
- Published
- 2021
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14. Access and quality of health care in Canada: Insights from 1998 to the present.
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Samuelson-Kiraly C, Montague T, Nemis-White J, MacPherson N, Martin L, Aylen J, Gogovor A, and Mitchell JI
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- Aged, Alberta, Canada, Health Facilities, Humans, Quality of Health Care, Delivery of Health Care, National Health Programs
- Abstract
This article reviews perceptions of Canada's public and health professionals regarding access and quality of healthcare. Principal data sources were 13 sequential Health Care in Canada (HCIC) surveys, from 1998 to 2018. Over time, the data series reveals that an increasing majority of the public report receiving quality care, rising from a national average of 53% in 2002 to 61% in 2018. Regionally, the variation in quality care has been relatively narrow, ranging from 52% in the Atlantic and Prairie provinces to 65% in Ontario in 2018. Professionals' ratings for delivery of quality care in 2018 were slightly higher than the public, averaging 65% and ranging from 58% among nurses to 72% and 74% among physicians and administrators. Despite the favourable ratings received for quality of healthcare, a persistent and growing issue in all regions of the country is concern around timely access to care. In 1998, 4% of the public rated prolonged wait times as a concern; in 2018, 43% rated it as their greatest concern. Regionally, the variation in 2018 ranged from 34% in the Atlantic provinces to 49% in Alberta. This concern about timely access involves all major components of healthcare delivery and is anticipated to worsen. Proposals to improve timely access have been suggested, with interdisciplinary, team-based care being the most strongly supported proposal. The Canadian Medicare system is currently recognized as a valued component of our national identity. However, sub-optimal access continues to undermine quality of care. In the absence of improved access, healthcare quality and outcomes will also remain sub-optimal.
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- 2020
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15. Canada's Evolving Medicare: Patient-Centred Care.
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Montague T, Nemis-White J, Aylen J, Torr E, Martin L, and Gogovor A
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- Canada, Health Personnel psychology, Humans, Public Opinion, Surveys and Questionnaires, Health Services Accessibility, National Health Programs statistics & numerical data, Patient-Centered Care trends
- Abstract
Canada's universal healthcare program, medicare, continues to evolve. An area of care that has gained increasing attention over the past several years is the general concept and specific components of patient centricity in healthcare delivery. This paper compares key measures of patient-centred care practices recorded in the 2013 and 2016 Health Care in Canada (HCIC) surveys, with the most recent preferences of the public and health professionals obtained in the 2018 HCIC survey, including priorities for improved future care. Timely access and caring care were the public's top-supported components of patient-centred care in the 2013 and 2016 HCIC surveys. In the 2018 HCIC survey, the Canadian public's overwhelming choice as the top-priority component of patient-centred care continued to be care readily and timely accessed, provided in a caring and respectful environment and based on need versus the ability to pay. In contrast, the public's lesser-supported option in all surveys was measurement and stakeholder feedback of actual care and outcomes. Among professionals in 2018, timely access and caring care were also rated as the top characteristics of patient-centred care, followed by care supported by research and expert opinion. Also similar to the public, Canadian healthcare professionals in 2018 rated measurement and feedback of delivered care and outcomes at the bottom of their support list. When the public and professionals were asked in the 2018 survey to prioritize their implementation choices for enhanced patient-centred care going forward, both stakeholder groups chose timely access as their first priority. Measurements and feedback of care and outcomes were rated at the lower end of choices in both groups in 2018. In summary, among key stakeholders, healthcare that is not readily and timely accessed remains the perceived greatest impediment to achievement of patient-centred care in contemporary Canadian medicare. The continued reality of undue delay in accessing healthcare in Canada is disturbing. A companion risk going forward is that all other components of patient-centred care will retreat to a level of irrelevance. Measurement and feedback of care, particularly its timeliness of access and outcomes, are necessary to monitor progress, stimulate innovation and ensure the success of Canadian medicare. Things can be better., (Copyright © 2019 Longwoods Publishing.)
- Published
- 2019
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16. Non-Adherence to Prescribed Therapies: Pharmacare's Existential Challenge.
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Gogovor A, Nemis-White J, Torr E, MacPherson N, Martin L, Aylen J, Manness LJ, and Montague T
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- Adult, Canada, Chronic Disease drug therapy, Humans, Medication Adherence psychology, National Health Programs organization & administration, Patient-Centered Care, Insurance, Pharmaceutical Services, Medication Adherence statistics & numerical data
- Abstract
Pharmacare, a recently proposed addition to Canada's universal medicare program, has become a prominent topic in the public discourse, but funding and leadership have not been established. Repeated Health Care in Canada (HCIC) surveys of the adult public and a broad spectrum of health professionals reveal very strong support for a national system that is easy to access and covers all prescribed pharmaceuticals. Although the practical details of universal pharmacare remain to be established, there is strong support among the public and professionals as well as increasing federal government interest in moving forward and ultimately implementing pharmacare. At the same time, HCIC surveys indicate that a high percentage of patients do not take their medications as directed, both for acute and chronic illnesses. The data suggest that pharmacare's success will be severely challenged by this. Of the four major challenges preventing usual care from being the best care - suboptimal access, non-diagnosis, non-prescription and non-adherence - risk from some form of non-adherence is often ranked first by care professionals. The most commonly reported reasons for non-adherence in clinical settings are patients' forgetfulness and how they feel in the moment on any given day. Costs of therapy, lack of understanding or poor knowledge transfer between prescribers and patients regarding therapeutic risks and benefits are rarely cited causes for poor adherence. These findings from the 2018 HCIC survey are not new. They are very consistent with measurements in the 2016 and other previous HCIC surveys. They do, however, raise practical challenges for the creation and ongoing management of universal pharmacare. Specifically, a patient-centred care component designed to improve non-adherence to prescribed therapies is needed. Ideally, it should include a measurement and feedback component on adherence that shares data with and between patients, health professionals and payers. Things can be better., (Copyright © 2019 Longwoods Publishing.)
- Published
- 2019
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17. Medicare's Evolution: National Pharmacare and Shared Leadership.
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Nemis-White J, Torr E, Aylen J, Gogovor A, Martin L, Mitchell J, MacPherson N, and Montague T
- Subjects
- Canada, Health Personnel psychology, Humans, Leadership, Insurance, Pharmaceutical Services, National Health Programs organization & administration, Public Opinion
- Abstract
Repeated Health Care in Canada (HCIC) surveys over the past two decades have consistently reported that the adult public and clinical and administrative health professionals consider medicare to be successful in terms of quality of care, despite a growing concern that timely access to care remains challenging. These key stakeholders have also recently signalled that major change strategies are likely necessary for continuing success. In the 2018 survey, both the public and professionals ranked highest the creation of a national comprehensive pharmacare plan, entirely funded by the federal government, or with federal funding for those not currently covered by existing pharmaceutical plans. The majority of the public and health professionals in 2018 were also remarkably concordant regarding preferred leadership for designing, instituting and managing a national pharmacare program. The public's priority, supported by 50% of the adult population, was shared leadership involving governments, medical academia and the pharmaceutical/biotech industries, followed by government leadership at 33%. Among professionals, preference for shared leadership averaged 60% and governmental leadership averaged 33%. Based on these data, restriction of pharmacare's leadership exclusively to any single stakeholder raises concern of a critical lack of support for success. A coalition of governments, research hospitals/health authorities and the pharmaceutical/biotech industry - the highest-ranked candidates as potential leaders - would likely provide the best chance to garner the majority of public support and enhance the chances of success in the short and long terms. In summary, the addition of universal pharmacare to medicare's existing healthcare portfolios is an attractive strategy to advance Canadian healthcare and outcomes. The federal government has taken the initial step. Recruitment of additional leaders sharing aspiration, inspiration and experience to optimize pharmacare's development and measure its outcomes is needed. Things can be better., (Copyright © 2019 Longwoods Publishing.)
- Published
- 2019
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18. Healthcare in Canada: Choices Going Forward.
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Montague T, Cochrane B, Gogovor A, Aylen J, Martin L, and Nemis-White J
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- Adult, Canada, Delivery of Health Care, Humans, National Health Programs organization & administration, Quality of Health Care, Health Care Surveys, Health Priorities, Prescription Drugs economics
- Abstract
The overarching purpose of serial Health Care in Canada (HCIC) surveys of the adult Canadian public and a broad spectrum of healthcare professionals over the past two decades has been the development of an evidence-based map to inform strategic and clinical decisions to improve care and outcomes for Canadians. Recent surveys reveal a growing concern that medicare may require complete rebuilding or major strategic repairs. On the other hand, a majority of stakeholders perceive continuing underlying quality in our clinical care and look forward to both system- and patient-centred initiatives to improve future care. Currently, the most strongly supported strategic improvement target among the public and professional caregivers is enhanced availability of less expensive prescription medications. With regard to practical implementation of this strategy, the public's (39%) and healthcare professionals' (39-54%) preference was institution of a nation-wide pharmacare plan, funded by a federal tax. There was also pan-stakeholder concordance around the two least favoured potential strategies: increasing taxes and shifting money from other funded services. In terms of improving clinical care, the public and all professional groups were also concordant in most strongly supporting increases in home and community care services, disease prevention/wellness education and use of non-physician care providers and electronic health records. There was also remarkable concordance regarding who is most responsible for implementing these preferred innovations: research hospitals/health authorities, government funding agencies and pharmaceutical/biotech industries. In summary, contemporary Canadian public and health professionals agree on key strategic and practical priorities to improve future care and outcomes. Moreover, they concur on who should lead their implementation. This public/professional concordance supporting evidence-driven choices and leadership for improving care is not common. It is, however, an opportunity, providing a call to arms for other stakeholders, particularly governments and industry, to recognize the opportunity and their leadership expectations and to act upon them. Things can be better., (© 2018 Longwoods Publishing.)
- Published
- 2018
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19. Patient-Centred Care in Canada: Key Components and the Path Forward.
- Author
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Montague T, Gogovor A, Aylen J, Ashley L, Ahmed S, Martin L, Cochrane B, Adams O, and Nemis-White J
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- Canada, Delivery of Health Care methods, Evidence-Based Practice, Health Care Surveys, Health Services Accessibility, Humans, Health Personnel, Patient-Centered Care, Public Opinion
- Abstract
Canadians' health and its care continue to evolve. Chronic diseases affect more than 50% of our aging population, but the majority of public and professional stakeholders retain a sense of care quality. An emergent issue, however, is generating an increasingly wide debate. It is the concept of patient-centred care, including its definition of key components, and efficacy. To advance the evidence base, the 2013-2014 and 2016 Health Care in Canada (HCIC) surveys measured pan-stakeholder levels of support and implementation priorities for frequently proposed components of patient centricity in healthcare. The public's highest rated component was timely access to care, followed by perceived respect and caring in its delivery, with decisions made in partnership among patients and professional providers, and within a basic belief that care should be based on patients' needs versus their ability to pay. Health professionals' levels of support for key components largely overlapped the public's levels of support for key components, with an additional accent on care influenced by an evidence base and expert opinion. In terms of priority to actually implement enhanced patient-centred care options, timely access was universally dominant among all stakeholders. Caring, respectful care, also retained high implementation priority among both the public and professionals, as did care decisions made in partnership, and, among professionals, care driven by research and expert opinion. Low priorities, for both the public and professionals, were the actual measurements of patient-centred care delivery and its impact on outcomes. In summary, there is remarkable concordance among all stakeholders in terms of favoured interventions to enhance patient-centred care, namely, timely access, caring, partnering and communicative delivery of evidence-based care. Unfortunately, the lack of contemporary imperative around the value of measuring and reporting actual use and outcomes of favoured interventions means uncertainty of their efficacy will persist for the foreseeable future. Things can be better.
- Published
- 2017
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20. Public and Professional Insights on End-of-Life Care: Results of the 2016 Health Care in Canada Survey.
- Author
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Montague T, Nemis-White J, Aylen J, Ahmed S, Baxter S, Martin L, Adams O, and Gogovor A
- Subjects
- Adult, Canada, Health Personnel psychology, Home Care Services, Hospices, Humans, Pain Management, Palliative Care, Suicide, Assisted, Surveys and Questionnaires, Attitude of Health Personnel, Public Opinion, Terminal Care
- Abstract
A new dimension has been added to Canadian Medicare ߝ exemption from prosecution for physicians, nurse practitioners and assistants providing medical assistance in dying for competent and informed adult patients with a grievous and irremediable medical condition causing intolerable physical or psychological suffering, irreversible decline in capabilities and reasonably foreseeable natural death. To define stakeholders' perceptions on all contemporary end-of-life care options, we analyzed data from the 2016 Health Care in Canada Survey comprising representative samples of the adult public (n = 1,500), physicians (n = 102), nurses (n = 102), pharmacists (n = 100), administrators (n = 100) and allied health professionals (n = 100). Among the public, enhanced pain management, hospice/palliative care and home/family care were all supported at, or above, the 80th percentile; medically assisted death was supported by 70%. Among all professionals, hospice/palliative care, pain management and home care garnered >90% support; support for medically assisted death ranged from 58% (physicians) to 79% (allied professionals). In terms of priority to implement available options, medically assisted death was rated first by 46% of the public, overall, and by 69% of the sub-group who strongly supported it, followed by enhanced pain management (45%) and home care (42%). Among professionals, top implementation priorities (range: 57ߝ61%) were: enhanced pain management, hospice/palliative care and home care support. Priority for medically assisted death ranged between 25% and 41%, although among professionals who strongly supported it, it was their top priority (52%). When asked to balance patients' right to access assisted death, versus some professionals' reluctance to provide it, 42% of the public and the majority of professionals thought providers should be allowed to opt out if they referred patients to another willing provider. And many professionals perceive some risk of either legal or regulatory reprisal if they assist in patients' deaths. In summary, there is substantial contemporary support for all components of end-of-life care among all stakeholders. However, non-lethal care modalities remain generally preferred, perhaps, at least in part, because medical professionals have a pervasive concern of going in harm's way by participating in assisted death, or by refusing. Things can be better.
- Published
- 2017
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21. Living on a flammable planet: interdisciplinary, cross-scalar and varied cultural lessons, prospects and challenges.
- Author
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Roos CI, Scott AC, Belcher CM, Chaloner WG, Aylen J, Bird RB, Coughlan MR, Johnson BR, Johnston FH, McMorrow J, and Steelman T
- Subjects
- Environmental Health, Humans, Population Growth, Attitude, Climate Change, Conservation of Natural Resources, Fires
- Abstract
Living with fire is a challenge for human communities because they are influenced by socio-economic, political, ecological and climatic processes at various spatial and temporal scales. Over the course of 2 days, the authors discussed how communities could live with fire challenges at local, national and transnational scales. Exploiting our diverse, international and interdisciplinary expertise, we outline generalizable properties of fire-adaptive communities in varied settings where cultural knowledge of fire is rich and diverse. At the national scale, we discussed policy and management challenges for countries that have diminishing fire knowledge, but for whom global climate change will bring new fire problems. Finally, we assessed major fire challenges that transcend national political boundaries, including the health burden of smoke plumes and the climate consequences of wildfires. It is clear that to best address the broad range of fire problems, a holistic wildfire scholarship must develop common agreement in working terms and build across disciplines. We must also communicate our understanding of fire and its importance to the media, politicians and the general public.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'., (© 2016 The Author(s).)
- Published
- 2016
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22. Wildfire policy and management in England: an evolving response from Fire and Rescue Services, forestry and cross-sector groups.
- Author
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Gazzard R, McMorrow J, and Aylen J
- Subjects
- England, Forestry, Conservation of Natural Resources legislation & jurisprudence, Environmental Policy legislation & jurisprudence, Fires, Forests
- Abstract
Severe wildfires are an intermittent problem in England. The paper presents the first analysis of wildfire policy, showing its halting evolution over two decades. First efforts to coordinate wildfire management came from local fire operation groups, where stakeholders such as fire services, land owners and amenity groups shared knowledge and equipment to tackle the problem. A variety of structures and informal management solutions emerged in response to local needs. Knowledge of wildfire accumulated within regional and national wildfire forums and academic networks. Only later did the need for central emergency planning and the response to climate change produce a national policy response. Fire statistics have allowed wildfires to be spatially evidenced on a national scale only since 2009. National awareness of wildfire was spurred by the 2011 fire season, and the high-impact Swinley Forest fire, which threatened critical infrastructure and communities within 50 miles of London. Severe wildfire was included in the National Risk Register for the first time in 2013. Cross-sector approaches to wildfire proved difficult as government responsibility is fragmented along the hazard chain. Stakeholders such as the Forestry Commission pioneered good practice in adaptive land management to build fire resilience into UK forests. The grass-roots evolution of participatory solutions has also been a key enabling process. A coordinated policy is now needed to identify best practice and to promote understanding of the role of fire in the ecosystem.This article is part of a themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'., (© 2016 The Author(s).)
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
23. Searching for Best Direction in Healthcare: Distilling Opportunities, Priorities and Responsibilities.
- Author
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Montague T, Gogovor A, Marshall L, Cochrane B, Ahmed S, Torr E, Aylen J, and Nemis-White J
- Subjects
- Canada, Health Status, Humans, Leadership, Patient-Centered Care, Surveys and Questionnaires, Health Services Accessibility, Primary Health Care organization & administration
- Abstract
Canada's health and its care are evolving. Evidence from serial Health Care in Canada surveys of the public and health professionals over the last two decades reveal a persistent sense of care quality, despite an aging population, decreasing levels of good and excellent health, increasing prevalence of chronic illnesses; and sub-optimal access to timely and patient-centred care. Stakeholders are, however, somewhat pessimistic and many sense complete rebuilding, or major changes, may be necessary. To improve access, the primary health concern of all Canadians - increasing medical and nursing school enrolment, and requiring professionals to work in teams - have attracted increasingly high support from both the public and professionals. However, physicians' support lags behind that of nursing, pharmacy and administrative colleagues; and, currently, only a minority of patients and professionals are actively involved in team care programs. Another example in which high levels of support may not necessarily translate into priority implementation of promising interventions is the realm of patient-centred care. The public and all professionals report a very high level of general support for care provided in a caring and respectful manner. However, while the public rank it second in implementation priority, following timely access, the majority of professionals rank it only fourth. By contrast, there is remarkable pan-stakeholder concordance around interventions to improve the overall health system, with the majority of public and professional stakeholders rating the creation of national supply systems as their top priority to expedite the clinical and cost efficiency of new treatments. There is a similar pan-stakeholder concordance around priority of responsibility to drive innovations, the top three being: federal/provincial governments; research hospitals/regional health authorities; and the pharmaceutical industry. In summary, Canadians are at a healthcare crossroads. Population health is decreasing, chronic diseases are increasing and desire for timely access to patient-centred, team-delivered and technology-supported care remain top concerns. Despite some disconnects between theoretical support for, and priority to implement, promising innovations, there is universal support to optimize resources to make things better. And there is concordance around the leadership best suited to lead innovation. Things can be better.
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
24. Contributions and Challenges of Non-Professional Patient Care: A Key Component of Contemporary Canadian Healthcare.
- Author
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Montague T, Gogovor A, Ahmed S, Torr E, Aylen J, Marshall L, Henningsen N, and Nemis-White J
- Subjects
- Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Canada, Caregivers statistics & numerical data, Chronic Disease therapy, Delivery of Health Care organization & administration, Female, Health Care Surveys, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Young Adult, Caregivers organization & administration
- Abstract
The Canadian public is aging. Population levels of excellent, or very good, health are decreasing, and the prevalence of chronic diseases is increasing. Timely access to caring and respectful care from health professionals, with supporting information transfer, are key qualities in patients' sense of centricity and hope for best outcomes. Data from the 2013-2014 Health Care in Canada (HCIC) survey reveal, however, that 38% of such patients do not always, or often, access this support. The lack of timely access may be one underlying driver for non-professional caregivers to contribute to the care, as well as the personal and financial management, of family members or friends with chronic disease. Previous HCIC surveys, in 2005, 2006 and 2007, reported non-professional caregivers' prevalence in the adult public at 21, 23 and 26%, respectively, compared with 19% in the 2013-2014 survey. In all the surveys, a notable feature of non-professional care providers has been their universality of contribution, across age, sex, geography and time. Caregivers pay, however, a price. They have a lower level of self-related health, a higher incidence of chronic illness and net-negative impacts on relationships, career and finances, including use of personal savings (53%) and necessity of quitting their job (12%). Conversely, they infrequently claim available tax (12%) or compassionate care (11%) benefits. Interestingly, non-professional caregivers work in team-care settings with health professionals more frequently (29%) than patients in the general population with chronic illnesses (18%). Nonetheless, their current levels of always, or often, receiving assisting support (46%) and information (53%) from health professionals are lower than the respective results reported by the general public (65% and 68%). In conclusion, non-professional patient care in Canada is a common, longstanding and not-for-profit enterprise. It is more likely driven by altruistic caring or sense of duty that balance, or overwhelm, its associated personal, medical and financial burdens. In the short term, practical opportunities for enhancement include broader recognition of caregivers' contributions, their improved access to professional support and communication and wider use of available governmental financial support. All are likely to enhance both patient-centred care and lessen the practical burdens of caregivers. Things can be better.
- Published
- 2015
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25. Stakeholder surveys of Canadian healthcare performance: what are they telling us? Who should be listening? Who should be acting, and how?
- Author
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Nemis-White J, Torr E, Gogovor A, Marshall L, Ahmed S, Aylen J, and Montague T
- Subjects
- Canada, Delivery of Health Care organization & administration, Health Care Surveys, Health Services Accessibility, Humans, Quality Improvement, Quality of Health Care, Delivery of Health Care standards
- Abstract
Eleven Health Care in Canada (HCIC) surveys, spanning 1998-2014, offer a comprehensive overview of the changing perceptions of physician, nurse, pharmacist, administrator and public stakeholders of the nation's health status, its burden of illness and its quality and cost of care. Overall, there persists a universal sense of quality in our health system--despite evidence that national health status is declining, chronic illnesses are increasing, patients' timely access to care and ability to afford care are diminishing and all these indicators are predicted to worsen over time. Among the public and health professionals, key priorities for improving future patient care are increasing professional schools' output and team-based care, along with enhanced use of national supply systems to reduce costs of care. Among HCIC survey partners, the overarching goal has been, and remains, the utilization of knowledge gained from the surveys to facilitate evidence-driven health policy and improved patient care and outcomes. Practical foci are the development of knowledge translation (KT) activities and assessment of their impact. This paper outlines current initiatives to track reach of member and non-member audiences for HCIC information; to ascertain how they perceive and value the various KT messages, vehicles and metrics; and to potentially identify a hierarchy of efficacy for impact factors. The primary objective is to inform future HCIC survey design and reporting, especially identification of KT vehicles and venues that are most effective in terms of reach and impact in facilitating understanding of, and subsequent action around, the knowledge generated.
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
26. Forecasting the outbreak of moorland wildfires in the English Peak District.
- Author
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Albertson K, Aylen J, Cavan G, and McMorrow J
- Subjects
- England, Seasons, Climate, Disasters, Environmental Monitoring methods, Fires, Risk Assessment methods
- Abstract
Warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the potential risk of wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District of northern England. Fires are costly to fight, damage the ecosystem, harm water catchments, cause erosion scars and disrupt transport. Fires release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Accurate forecasts of the timing of fires help deployment of fire fighting resources. A probit model is used to assess the chance of fires at different times of the year, days of the week and under various weather conditions. Current and past rainfall damp fire risk. The likelihood of fire increases with maximum temperature. Dry spells or recent fire activity also signal extra fire hazard. Certain days are fire prone due to visitors and some months of the year are more risky reflecting the changing flammability of moorland vegetation. The model back-predicts earlier fires during a hot dry summer. The impact of climate change on fire incidence is not straightforward. Risks may be reduced if wetter winters and earlier onset of spring add to plant moisture content. Yet a warm spring increases biomass and potential fuel load in summer. Climate change may cause the timing of moorland wildfires to shift from a damper and more verdant spring to drought-stressed summer.
- Published
- 2009
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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