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11. Cropland Reflux: Trends In and Locations of Land Use Change in the Dakotas, 2007 to 2012 and 2012 to 2017

Author

Wang, Tong, Ayesh, Abubakr, Hennessy, David, and Feng, Hongli

Subjects
commodity prices, North Dakota, South Dakota, land use conversion, cropland data layer (CDL), Land Economics/Use
Abstract

This article analyzed land use trends in South and North Dakota over the 2007-2012 and 2012-2017 periods using USDA NASS cropland data layer (CDL) data. Most grassland to cropland conversions occurred during the 2007-2012 period. In South Dakota, nearly 20% of grassland in 2007 was converted to cropland in 2012. During the 2012 to 2017 period, substantial reversion to grass occurred. Land use change trends in North Dakota were similar to those in South Dakota over the 2007-2012 time frame, with a high grassland to cropland conversion rate during 2007-2012 (19.90%) and a greatly curtailed conversion rate during 2012-2017 period (7.81%). To a large degree, changes in land conversion trends in the Dakotas between 2007-2012 and 2012-2017 can be attributed to changing crop prices. Yet due to the "hysteresis" phenomena, even though crop prices have been overall declining since 2012, grassland acres in the future are not likely to revert to the same level as 2007.

Published
2018
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