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Introduction High comorbidity among pediatric disorders characterized by behavioral and emotional dysregulation poses problems for diagnosis and treatment, and suggests that these disorders may be better conceptualized as dimensions of abnormal behaviors. Furthermore, identifying neuroimaging biomarkers related to dimensional measures of behavior may provide targets to guide individualized treatment. We aimed to use functional neuroimaging and pattern regression techniques to determine whether patterns of brain activity could accurately decode individual-level severity on a dimensional scale measuring behavioural and emotional dysregulation at two different time points. Methods A sample of fifty-seven youth (mean age: 14.5 years; 32 males) was selected from a multisite study of youth with parent-reported behavioral and emotional dysregulation. Participants performed a block-design reward paradigm during functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI). Pattern regression analyses consisted of Relevance Vector Regression (RVR) and two cross-validation strategies implemented in the Pattern Recognition for Neuroimaging toolbox (PRoNTo). Medication was treated as a binary confounding variable. Decoded and actual clinical scores were compared using Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) and mean squared error (MSE) to evaluate the models. Permutation test was applied to estimate significance levels. Results Relevance Vector Regression identified patterns of neural activity associated with symptoms of behavioral and emotional dysregulation at the initial study screen and close to the fMRI scanning session. The correlation and the mean squared error between actual and decoded symptoms were significant at the initial study screen and close to the fMRI scanning session. However, after controlling for potential medication effects, results remained significant only for decoding symptoms at the initial study screen. Neural regions with the highest contribution to the pattern regress

Introduction: There are no known biological measures that accurately predict future development of psychiatric disorders in individual at-risk adolescents. We investigated whether machine learning and fMRI could help to: 1. differentiate healthy adolescents genetically at-risk for bipolar disorder and other Axis I psychiatric disorders from healthy adolescents at low risk of developing these disorders; 2. identify those healthy genetically at-risk adolescents who were most likely to develop future Axis I disorders. Methods: 16 healthy offspring genetically at risk for bipolar disorder and other Axis I disorders by virtue of having a parent with bipolar disorder and 16 healthy, age- and gender-matched low-risk offspring of healthy parents with no history of psychiatric disorders (12-17 year-olds) performed two emotional face gender-labeling tasks (happy/neutral; fearful/neutral) during fMRI. We used Gaussian Process Classifiers (GPC), a machine learning approach that assigns a predictive probability of group membership to an individual person, to differentiate groups and to identify those at-risk adolescents most likely to develop future Axis I disorders. Results: Using GPC, activity to neutral faces presented during the happy experiment accurately and significantly differentiated groups, achieving 75% accuracy (sensitivity = 75%, specificity = 75%). Furthermore, predictive probabilities were significantly higher for those at-risk adolescents who subsequently developed an Axis I disorder than for those at-risk adolescents remaining healthy at follow-up. Conclusions: We show that a combination of two promising techniques, machine learning and neuroimaging, not only discriminates healthy low-risk from healthy adolescents genetically at-risk for Axis I disorders, but may ultimately help to predict which at-risk adolescents subsequently develop these disorders. © 2012 Mourão-Miranda et al.