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The article analyses the role of global financial conditions for credit supply and growth performance in individual member states of the European Monetary Union (EMU). In line with the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, we find that in the short run, the Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate policy compensate for changes in global risk assessment thereby supporting net private credit flows to the European periphery. However, in later periods, a worsened risk sentiment weighs on credit flows to these countries. In contrast, EMU core countries are generally less affected by global financial shocks. This asymmetric influence of global conditions on EMU member states are smoothed by the uniform access of commercial banks to the Eurosystem’s open market operations in conjunction with the redistribution of liquidity via the TARGET mechanism.

Summary International financial integration has become an important factor for economic performance in the globalisation process. Access to international capital markets is crucial for a country’s ability to meet its financial needs and to keep up with the challenges of a changing global landscape. In this paper, “financial competitiveness” is interpreted as the attractiveness of a country as perceived by foreign investors, which is reflected in refinancing costs in international capital markets. The study concentrates on foreign direct investment (FDI), which is an essential feature of the globalisation process and has immediate implications for the real economy. An index of international financial competitiveness is calculated which is given by the ratio of the market value to the book value of inward FDI stocks. For a panel of five advanced economies from 1980 to 2006 it is shown that price competitiveness, stable inflation rates and registered patents have a positive impact on the index. Institutional factors like EMU membership or Anglo-American legislation also play a role. Financial competitiveness in turn encourages FDI inflows whereas it benefits fixed investment relative to M&A. There is also some evidence that an innovative environment accelerates investment decisions by promoting competition among investors.

Die politische und wirtschaftliche Integration Europas, besonders auch die gemeinsame Währung, haben die Verflechtung der Finanzmärkte wesentlich vorangetrieben. Mit der zunehmenden Diversifizierung von Beteiligungskapital wurde die internationale Konsumglättung gefördert. Dies lässt sich aus dem Einfluss des Home-Bias auf die Transmission von nationalen Schocks des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) auf den Inlandskonsum ablesen. Insbesondere die aus Aktienbesitz erzielbaren Renditen lassen sich durch eine internationale Ausrichtung des Portfolios glätten, während dieser Aspekt bei Schuldverschreibungen weniger ins Gewicht fällt. Auch in der aktuellen Finanzkrise wurden divergierende Entwicklungen der nationalen Wertschöpfung durch internationale Risikoteilung teilweise ausgeglichen. Zugleich wurde jedoch die wechselseitige Abhängigkeit der EU-Länder offenkundig und mit ihr die Notwendigkeit einer effektiven europäischen Finanzaufsicht. Europe's political and economic integration and especially the single European currency have significantly advanced the interconnectedness of the financial markets. The increasing diversification of equity capital within and outside the euro area, in particular, has contributed to international consumption smoothing. This can be seen from the effect of the home bias on the transmission of national shocks of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on domestic consumption. Especially, returns on equity holdings can be smoothed by giving the portfolio an international focus, while this option is limited for debt securities. Actually, divergent developments in national value added during the current financial crisis have partly been compensated. At the same time, however, interdependencies between EU member states also became apparent and so the necessity of an effective European financial supervision.

Zusammenfassung Durch den Vertrag von Amsterdam vom 2. Oktober 1997 wurde der acquis communautaire der Europäischen Union um ein Kapitel zur gemeinsamen Beschäftigungspolitik erweitert. Ihr Schwerpunkt liegt in der aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik. Die vorliegende Arbeit geht der Frage nach, inwieweit der Einsatz aktiver Arbeitsmarktpolitik Probleme aufwirft, die nur innerhalb einer Währungsunion auftreten (oder durch diese erheblich verstärkt werden) und eine Koordination auf europäischer Ebene notwendig machen. Tatsächlich erschwert der sogenannte Stabilitätspakt die Finanzierung arbeitsmarktpolitischer Maßnahmen. Da gleichzeitig der nominale Wechselkurs als Anpassungsinstrument zwischen den Mitgliedsstaaten der Währungsunion entfällt, tritt ein verschärfter Steuerwettbewerb auf, der ein suboptimales Angebot aktiver Arbeitsmarktpolitik zur Folge hat und durch finanzielle Koordination vermieden werden kann. Die von einigen Politikern beabsichtigte Einbindung der Europäischen Zentralbank in die beschäftigungspolitische Verantwortung birgt allerdings die Gefahr eines exzessiven Einsatzes arbeitsmarktpolitischer Maßnahmen, der bei zunehmender Globalisierung zu einem schwerwiegenden Standortnachteil gegenüber dem Rest der Welt führt und letztlich höhere soziale Kosten verursacht als ein vollständiger Verzicht auf beschäftigungspolitische Kooperation.

Der Euro zeigt sich gegenüber dem Dollar anhaltend stark. Inwieweit wird die Konjunktur in Europa von der aktuellen Stärke der Gemeinschaftswährung in Mitleidenschaft gezogen? Ist die Grenze erreicht, bei der eine weitere Verschlechterung der preislichen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit die deutsche Exportwirtschaft empfindlich treffen würde?

The best way to prevent hyperinflation when domestic prices are liberalized is to initiate the transition from a planned economy to a market economy with a currency reform. In the following period, moderate inflation and flexible exchange rates are suitable to facilitate relative price adjustments. Only after the bulk of alignments has been accomplished can a switch in the exchange rate regime be convenient. The nominal peg of a stable reference currency lowers the level and the variance of domestic inflation rates. The credibility of an exchange rate target may best be achieved by combining a currency board (objective sustainability) with a crawling peg (political sustainability). Price stability can be realized in the long run by reducing the annual depreciation rate in regular, preannounced steps.

Global factors are becoming increasingly important as a cause of international capital fl ows. It is nearly impossible for some countries to protect themselves from outside infl uences on their fi nancial markets. This paper investigates the extent to which various global factors such as stock market volatility, international liquidity and global interest rate levels impact on the effective fi nancial market exchange rates of selected emerging market economies. These results are compared with effects on the fi nancial market exchange rates of the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany.

The paper evaluates current account dynamics in countries with different exchange rate regimes within the EU. In this, the empirical analysis explicitly differentiates between countries with a flexible and a fixed exchange rate regime and members of a monetary union. In addition, we model the adjustment process of external disequilibria by referring to the flexibility of exchange rates and interest rates. The sample covers annual data for 27 EU countries from 1994 to 2011. The estimation is based on a simple autoregressive model and comes to the conclusion that current account adjustment is significantly hampered in countries that are members of a monetary union. This holds particularly in comparison with floating exchange rate regimes owing to lower exchange rate flexibility. However, the persistence of current account balances in member countries of a monetary union is also more pronounced than in fixed-rate regimes due to less flexible interest rates as a result of the single monetary policy.

The current accounts of most EU member states in central and eastern Europe have been showing growing deficits in recent years. According to panel estimates the deficits can be attributed primarily to factors characteristic for the stage of development, ie the relative income level and high capital building. The positive impact of a closing income gap, however, is largely compensated by real appreciation. The net effect of government budget deficits is rather small, since they are mostly financed by private saving. Further integration of the financial sector is likely to improve the current accounts. Although the current account positions do not require fundamental policy reversals, there are clear risks of exchange rate adjustments that should be reduced before entering the euro area.

Following their accession to the EU, which is planned for May 2004, eight central and east European countries will subsequently strive for integration into the Eurosystem. The Eurosystem underlines the need for simultaneous real and nominal convergence as a prerequisite for integration into the euro area. But some of the acceding countries argue that, at least in the short to medium term, a strengthening of nominal convergence makes real economic convergence more difficult. The following paper investigates this issue by means of an empirical study and attempts to establish to what extent real and nominal convergence are compatible.

Based on the concept of covered interest parity it is shown that the money markets in Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and the Slovak Republic meanwhile display a high degree of international integration with the euro area. Integration has strengthened continuously in the review period of 1999 to mid 2002. The segmentation that could still be observed stems from both restrictions on the short-term movement of capital and the limited development of the financial sectors in the four accession countries. While almost all capital controls have since been removed and will no longer play a role after accession to the EU, the implementation and transmission of the single monetary policy within the Eurosystem will possibly be impeded, if the financial sectors in CEE are then still underdeveloped.

A test of speculative efficiency on the foreign exchange markets of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and the Slovak republic was unable to identify a cointegration relationship between forward and spot rates against the euro for the period between 1999 and mid-2002. Econometric studies confirm the existence of a time-variable exchange rate premium in all of the above countries. However, information and transaction costs also appear to be responsible for the observed deviations from speculative efficiency. The segmentation of the foreign exchange markets is likely to hamper the coordination of national monetary and foreign exchange policies within ERM II. In addition, this segmentation increases uncertainty in setting the central rate against the euro.

The Russian financial system is caught up in a vicious circle of lack of credibility, inflationary expectations and non-sustainability of the exchange rate, which is driving the country to the brink of disaster. This has revived the debate as to what would constitute an adequate exchange rate system. The following article examines the arguments for and against a currency board and a crawling peg, and concludes that a combination of the two would be the best strategy.