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While mountain water faces threats posed by climate change, particularly in snow-dominated and glacierized systems, the role of groundwater (GW) in sustaining streamflow in these systems remains elusive. Changing mountain headwaters, marked by reduced snowpacks, retreating glaciers, shifting precipitation patterns, and rising temperatures, pose a crucial question: what is the resilience of streamflow in these mountains, and what role does GW play in this resilience? This is particularly uncertain in tropical high mountains where the seasonality of precipitation and glacier melt govern streamflow generation. A glacio-hydrological model was created using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform to investigate cryosphere-surface water-GW interactions in the Quilcayhuanca Basin, in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca. The model was forced by in-situ meteorological observations and parameterized using numerous data sources and process-based studies in the basin. Model results show that during the dry season, 37% of streamflow is generated from GW discharge, increasing to 56% during the lowest flows. Evapotranspiration is the largest mass flux from the basin at the peak of the dry season. Precipitation, temperature, and glacier change scenarios were used to assess the sensitivity of basin hydrology to climate change and glacier retreat. In a warmer, wetter, and nearly deglaciated future, Quilcayhuanca basin streamflow is expected to decrease by 4%-19% annually, with a larger volumetric change in overland and vadose zone flow than in GW flow. The range in values is more closely linked to uncertainty in precipitation change than temperature change. Despite a strong reduction in snow and ice contribution to streamflow with warming and deglaciation, the concomitant increase in precipitation can limit the changes in streamflow and GW flow, showcasing the resilience of the system to shifts in climate and glacier cover.

Debris-covered glaciers are an important component of the mountain cryosphere and influence the hydrological contribution of glacierized basins to downstream rivers. This study examines the potential to make estimates of debris thickness, a critical variable to calculate the sub-debris melt, using ground-based thermal infrared radiometry (TIR) images. Over four days in August 2019, a ground-based, time-lapse TIR digital imaging radiometer recorded sequential thermal imagery of a debris-covered region of Peyto Glacier, Canadian Rockies, in conjunction with 44 manual exca- vations of debris thickness ranging from 10 to 110 cm, and concurrent meteorological observa- tions. Inferring the correlation between measured debris thickness and TIR surface temperature as a base, the effectiveness of linear and exponential regression models for debris thickness esti- mation from surface temperature was explored. Optimal model performance (R2 of 0.7, RMSE of 10.3 cm) was obtained with a linear model applied to measurements taken on clear nights just before sunrise, but strong model performances were also obtained under complete cloud cover during daytime or nighttime with an exponential model. This work presents insights into the use of surface temperature and TIR observations to estimate debris thickness and gain knowledge of the state of debris-covered glacial ice and its potential hydrological contribution.

Cold regions involve hydrological processes that are not often addressed appropriately in hydrological models. The Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) was initially developed in 1998 to assemble and explore the hydrological understanding developed from a series of research basins spanning Canada and international cold regions. Hydrological processes and basin response in cold regions are simulated in a flexible, modular, object-oriented, multiphysics platform. The CRHM platform allows for multiple representations of forcing data interpolation and extrapolation, hydrological model spatial and physical process structures, and parameter values. It is well suited for model falsification, algorithm intercomparison and benchmarking, and has been deployed for basin hydrology diagnosis, prediction, land use change and water quality analysis, climate impact analysis and flood forecasting around the world. This paper describes CRHM’s capabilities, and the insights derived by applying the model in concert with process hydrology research and using the combined information and understanding from research basins to predict hydrological variables, diagnose hydrological change and determine the appropriateness of model structure and parameterisations.

Peruvian glaciers are important contributors to dry season runoff for agriculture and hydropower, but they are at risk of disappearing due to climate change. We applied a physically based, energy balance melt model at five on-glacier sites within the Peruvian Cordilleras Blanca and Vilcanota. Net shortwave radiation dominates the energy balance, and despite this flux being higher in the dry season, melt rates are lower due to losses from net longwave radiation and the latent heat flux. The sensible heat flux is a relatively small contributor to melt energy. At three of the sites the wet season snowpack was discontinuous, forming and melting within a daily to weekly timescale, and resulting in highly variable melt rates closely related to precipitation dynamics. Cold air temperatures due to a strong La Niña year at Shallap Glacier (Cordillera Blanca) resulted in a continuous wet season snowpack, significantly reducing wet season ablation. Sublimation was most important at the highest site in the accumulation zone of the Quelccaya Ice Cap (Cordillera Vilcanota), accounting for 81% of ablation, compared to 2%–4% for the other sites. Air temperature and precipitation inputs were perturbed to investigate the climate sensitivity of the five glaciers. At the lower sites warmer air temperatures resulted in a switch from snowfall to rain, so that ablation was increased via the decrease in albedo and increase in net shortwave radiation. At the top of Quelccaya Ice Cap warming caused melting to replace sublimation so that ablation increased nonlinearly with air temperature.

Tropical glaciers constitute an important source of water for downstream populations. However, our understanding of glacial melt processes is still limited. One observed process that has not yet been quantified for tropical glaciers is the enhanced melt caused by the longwave emission transfer. Here, we use high-resolution surface temperatures obtained from the thermal infrared imagery of the Cuchillacocha Glacier, in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru in June 2014 to calculate a margin longwave flux. This longwave flux, reaching the glacier margin from the adjacent exposed rock, varies between 81 and 120 W m−2 daily. This flux is incorporated into a physically-based melt model to assess the net radiation budget at the modeled glacier margin. The simulation results show an increase in the energy available for melt by an average of 106 W m−2 during the day when compared with the simulation where the LW margin flux is not accounted for. This value represents an increase in ablation of ~1.7 m at the glacier margin for the duration of the dry season. This study suggests that including the quantification of the glacier margin longwave flux in physically-based melt models results in an improved assessment of tropical glacier energy budget and meltwater generation.