1. Projected changes in precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia: unraveling the roles of thermodynamic and dynamic contributions.
- Author
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Lin, Zhiye, Ge, Fei, Chen, Quanliang, Fraedrich, Klaus, and Jin, Zhengrui
- Subjects
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ATMOSPHERIC thermodynamics , *HYDROLOGIC cycle , *ATMOSPHERIC circulation , *CLIMATE change , *TWENTY-first century - Abstract
Observational evidence has shown that precipitation extremes are expected to increase over Southeast Asia (SEA) under climate change. The physical mechanism of the future changes in precipitation extremes has remained largely unclear, which is a great challenge to project the future hydrologic cycle. In this study, the changes in precipitation extremes over SEA by the end of the 21st century (2071–2100) were estimated based on simulations from CMIP6 (Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models. Results showed that the spatiotemporal intensity of precipitation extremes is expected to increase significantly over SEA, as compared to the historical period of 1985–2014. The frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes in Kalimantan is projected to increase markedly in 2071–2100. Moreover, the wet and dry periods will be intensified in SEA, which is consistent with the "wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier" mechanism. We further investigated the thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to the enhanced precipitation extremes using a physical scaling diagnostic method, and results showed thermodynamic factors accounting for approximately 77% (75%) of the total scaling change under the SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario, but dynamic components constituting around 18% (15%). Alterations in thermodynamic scaling prevail as the primary contributor to amplified precipitation extremes. Furthermore, it was verified that the change in saturation specific humidity of thermodynamic scaling is intensified, and the model simulation consistency of thermodynamic scaling is better than that of dynamic scaling, revealing the effects of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics in the change of precipitation extremes over SEA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2025
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