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Byline: Matthias Jonas (1), M. Gusti (1,2), W. JAda (3), Z. Nahorski (3), S. Nilsson (1) Abstract: Our study is a preparatory exercise. We focus on the analysis of uncertainty in greenhouse gas emission inventories. Inventory uncertainty is monitored, but not regulated, under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Under the Convention, countries publish annual or periodic national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. Policymakers use these inventories to develop strategies and policies for emission reductions and to track the progress of these policies. However, greenhouse gas inventories contain uncertainty for a variety of reasons, and these uncertainties have important scientific and policy implications. For most countries, the emission changes agreed under the Protocol are of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainty that underlies their combined (carbon dioxide equivalent) emissions estimates. Here we apply and compare six available techniques to analyze the uncertainty in the emission changes that countries agreed to realize by the end of the Protocol's first commitment period 2008--2012. Any such technique, if implemented, could 'make or break' claims of compliance, especially in cases where countries claim fulfillment of their commitments to reduce or limit emissions. The techniques all perform differently and can thus have a different impact on the design and execution of emission control policies. A thorough comparison of the techniques has not yet been made but is needed when expanding the discussion on how to go about dealing with uncertainty under the Kyoto Protocol and its successor. Author Affiliation: (1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria (2) Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine (3) Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland Article History: Registration Date: 22/06/2010 Received Date: 05/01/2009 Accepted Date: 15/06/2010 Online Date: 27/07/2010

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.02.009 Byline: Paul A. Steenhof, Bertram C. McInnis Keywords: Energy system models; Ethanol; Hydrogen fuel cell; Electric car; Greenhouse gas emissions; Passenger transport Abstract: Using a full systems model of Canada's economy, six alternative scenarios to de-carbonize the personal passenger vehicle fleet are compared to a business as usual non de-carbonized scenario in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, trade disposition of energy commodities, and the physical resources required for energy production. Three scenarios are analyzed to compare the impacts of increasing either ethanol 85, hydrogen, or electricity powered vehicles into the vehicle fleet, with each starting to penetrate the light vehicle stock in 2010 to reach 100% of the new vehicle market by 2050. For each of these three scenarios, we then construct a variant scenario that considers the additional effects of de-carbonizing electricity production. With a de-carbonized electricity sector, net emission reductions are 29% for ethanol 85, and 31% for both hydrogen and electricity. When considering the transportation sector only, net emission reductions equal 13% for ethanol 85, and 14% for hydrogen and electricity. However, although the ethanol scenario results in the lowest reduction in total emissions, it has significant impacts on other parts of the physical resource base. By the time ethanol reaches 5% of the fuel mix in 2015, domestic consumption of grains increases by 20%, in turn impacting crop trade disposition. At this point, emissions are reduced by less than 0.5%, owing to the fossil fuels required since most ethanol is still grain based. By 2050 it is projected that almost all ethanol will be cellulose based, generating a more significant emission reduction but in turn requiring potentially unsustainable amounts of crop residue. Author Affiliation: Technologies Inc., 338 Somerset Street West, Suite 3, Ottawa, Canada K2P 0J9 Article History: Received 2 July 2007; Revised 17 December 2007; Accepted 26 February 2008