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1. Correction to Lancet HIV 2016; 3: e361-87

Author

Wang, H, Wolock, TM, Carter, A, Nguyen, G, Kyu, HH, Gakidou, E, Hay, SI, Mills, EJ, Trickey, A, Msemburi, W, Coates, MM, Mooney, MD, Fraser, MS, Sligar, A, Salomon, J, Larson, HJ, Friedman, J, Abajobir, AA, Abate, KH, Abbas, KM, Razek, MMAE, Abd-Allah, F, Abdulle, AM, Abera, SF, Abubakar, I, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Abyu, GY, Adebiyi, AO, Adedeji, IA, Adelekan, AL, Adofo, K, Adou, AK, Ajala, ON, Akinyemiju, TF, Akseer, N, Lami, FHA, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, NKM, Alasfoor, D, Aldhahri, SFS, Aldridge, RW, Alegretti, MA, Aleman, AV, Alemu, ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho, R, Ali, R, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Mohammad, R, Al-Raddadi, S, Alsharif, U, Alvarez, E, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Amberbir, A, Amegah, AK, Ammar, W, Amrock, SM, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Ärnlöv, J, Artaman, A, Asayesh, H, Asghar, RJ, Assadi, R, Atique, S, Atkins, LS, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Bacha, U, Badawi, A, Barac, A, Bärnighausen, T, Basu, A, Bayou, TA, Bayou, YT, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Beardsley, J, Bedi, N, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Betsu, BD, Beyene, AS, Bhatia, E, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgilign, S, Bikbov, B, Birlik, SM, Bisanzio, D, Brainin, M, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, NJK, Brown, A, Burch, M, Butt, ZA, Campuzano, JC, and Cárdenas, R

Abstract

GBD 2015 HIV Collaborators. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet HIV 2016; 3: e361–87—In this Article, Kerrie E Doyle and David M Pereira have been added to the list of collaborators and Claudia C Pereira has been removed. These corrections have been made as of Aug 22, 2016.

Published
2016

2. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Author

GBD 2015 HIV Collaborators, Wang, H, Wolock, TM, Carter, A, Nguyen, G, Kyu, HH, Gakidou, E, Hay, SI, Mills, EJ, Trickey, A, Msemburi, W, Coates, MM, Mooney, MD, Fraser, MS, Sligar, A, Salomon, J, Larson, HJ, Friedman, J, Abajobir, AA, Abate, KH, Abbas, KM, Razek, MM, Abd-Allah, F, Abdulle, AM, Abera, SF, Abubakar, I, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NM, Abyu, GY, Adebiyi, AO, Adedeji, IA, Adelekan, AL, Adofo, K, Adou, AK, Ajala, ON, Akinyemiju, TF, Akseer, N, Lami, FH, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, NK, Alasfoor, D, Aldhahri, SF, Aldridge, RW, Alegretti, MA, Aleman, AV, Alemu, ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho, R, Ali, R, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Mohammad, R, Al-Raddadi, S, Alsharif, U, Alvarez, E, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Amberbir, A, Amegah, AK, Ammar, W, Amrock, SM, Antonio, CA, Anwari, P, Ärnlöv, J, Artaman, A, Asayesh, H, Asghar, RJ, Assadi, R, Atique, S, Atkins, LS, Avokpaho, EF, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BP, Bacha, U, Badawi, A, Barac, A, Bärnighausen, T, Basu, A, Bayou, TA, Bayou, YT, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Beardsley, J, Bedi, N, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Betsu, BD, Beyene, AS, Bhatia, E, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgilign, S, Bikbov, B, Birlik, SM, Bisanzio, D, Brainin, M, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, NJ, Brown, A, Burch, M, Butt, ZA, Campuzano, JC, Cárdenas, R, Carrero, JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Rivas, JC, Catalá-López, F, Chang, HY, Chang, JC, Chavan, L, Chen, W, Chiang, PP, Chibalabala, M, Chisumpa, VH, Choi, JY, Christopher, DJ, Ciobanu, LG, Cooper, C, Dahiru, T, Damtew, SA, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Das Neves, J, De Jager, P, De Leo, D, Degenhardt, L, Dellavalle, RP, Deribe, K, Deribew, A, Des Jarlais, DC, Dharmaratne, SD, Ding, EL, Doshi, PP, Driscoll, TR, Dubey, M, Elshrek, YM, Elyazar, I, Endries, AY, Ermakov, SP, Eshrati, B, Esteghamati, A, Faghmous, ID, Farinha, CS, Faro, A, Farvid, MS, Farzadfar, F, Fereshtehnejad, SM, Fernandes, JC, Fischer, F, Fitchett, JR, Foigt, N, Fullman, N, Fürst, T, Gankpé, FG, Gebre, T, Gebremedhin, AT, Gebru, AA, Geleijnse, JM, Gessner, BD, Gething, PW, Ghiwot, TT, Giroud, M, Gishu, MD, Glaser, E, Goenka, S, Goodridge, A, Gopalani, SV, Goto, A, Gugnani, HC, Guimaraes, MD, Gupta, R, Gupta, V, Haagsma, J, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Hagan, H, Hailu, GB, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Hammami, M, Hankey, GJ, Hao, Y, Harb, HL, Harikrishnan, S, Haro, JM, Harun, KM, Havmoeller, R, Hedayati, MT, Heredia-Pi, IB, Hoek, HW, Horino, M, Horita, N, Hosgood, HD, Hoy, DG, Hsairi, M, Hu, G, Huang, H, Huang, JJ, Iburg, KM, Idrisov, BT, Innos, K, Iyer, VJ, Jacobsen, KH, Jahanmehr, N, Jakovljevic, MB, Javanbakht, M, Jayatilleke, AU, Jeemon, P, Jha, V, Jiang, G, Jiang, Y, Jibat, T, Jonas, JB, Kabir, Z, Kamal, R, Kan, H, Karch, A, Karema, CK, Karletsos, D, Kasaeian, A, Kaul, A, Kawakami, N, Kayibanda, JF, Keiyoro, PN, Kemp, AH, Kengne, AP, Kesavachandran, CN, Khader, YS, Khalil, I, Khan, AR, Khan, EA, Khang, YH, Khubchandani, J, Kim, YJ, Kinfu, Y, Kivipelto, M, Kokubo, Y, Kosen, S, Koul, PA, Koyanagi, A, Defo, BK, Bicer, BK, Kulkarni, VS, Kumar, GA, Lal, DK, Lam, H, Lam, JO, Langan, SM, Lansingh, VC, Larsson, A, Leigh, J, Leung, R, Li, Y, Lim, SS, Lipshultz, SE, Liu, S, Lloyd, BK, Logroscino, G, Lotufo, PA, Lunevicius, R, Razek, HM, Mahdavi, M, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Makhlouf, C, Malekzadeh, R, Mapoma, CC, Marcenes, W, Martinez-Raga, J, Marzan, MB, Masiye, F, Mason-Jones, AJ, Mayosi, BM, McKee, M, Meaney, PA, Mehndiratta, MM, Mekonnen, AB, Melaku, YA, Memiah, P, Memish, ZA, Mendoza, W, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, TJ, Mhimbira, FA, Miller, TR, Mikesell, J, Mirarefin, M, Mohammad, KA, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Monasta, L, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Mori, R, Mueller, UO, Murimira, B, Murthy, GV, Naheed, A, Naldi, L, Nangia, V, Nash, D, Nawaz, H, Nejjari, C, Ngalesoni, FN, De Dieu Ngirabega, J, Nguyen, QL, Nisar, MI, Norheim, OF, Norman, RE, Nyakarahuka, L, Ogbo, FA, Oh, IH, Ojelabi, FA, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Opio, JN, Oren, E, Ota, E, Padukudru, MA, Park, HY, Park, JH, Patil, ST, Patten, SB, Paul, VK, Pearson, K, Peprah, EK, Pereira, CC, Perico, N, Pesudovs, K, Petzold, M, Phillips, MR, Pillay, JD, Plass, D, Polinder, S, Pourmalek, F, Prokop, DM, Qorbani, M, Rafay, A, Rahimi, K, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Rahman, MH, Rahman, SU, Rai, RK, Rajsic, S, Ram, U, Rana, SM, Rao, PV, Remuzzi, G, Rojas-Rueda, D, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Roy, A, Ruhago, GM, Saeedi, MY, Sagar, R, Saleh, MM, Sanabria, JR, Santos, IS, Sarmiento-Suarez, R, Sartorius, B, Sawhney, M, Schutte, AE, Schwebel, DC, Seedat, S, Sepanlou, SG, Servan-Mori, EE, Shaikh, MA, Sharma, R, She, J, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shen, J, Shibuya, K, Shin, HH, Sigfusdottir, ID, Silpakit, N, Silva, DA, Silveira, DG, Simard, EP, Sindi, S, Singh, JA, Singh, OP, Singh, PK, Skirbekk, V, Sliwa, K, Soneji, S, Sorensen, RJ, Soriano, JB, Soti, DO, Sreeramareddy, CT, Stathopoulou, V, Steel, N, Sunguya, BF, Swaminathan, S, Sykes, BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos, R, Talongwa, RT, Tavakkoli, M, Taye, B, Tedla, BA, Tekle, T, Shifa, GT, Temesgen, AM, Terkawi, AS, Tesfay, FH, Tessema, GA, Thapa, K, Thomson, AJ, Thorne-Lyman, AL, Tobe-Gai, R, Topor-Madry, R, Towbin, JA, Tran, BX, Dimbuene, ZT, Tsilimparis, N, Tura, AK, Ukwaja, KN, Uneke, CJ, Uthman, OA, Venketasubramanian, N, Vladimirov, SK, Vlassov, VV, Vollset, SE, Wang, L, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, RG, Werdecker, A, Westerman, R, Wijeratne, T, Wilkinson, JD, Wiysonge, CS, Wolfe, CD, Won, S, Wong, JQ, Xu, G, Yadav, AK, Yakob, B, Yalew, AZ, Yano, Y, Yaseri, M, Yebyo, HG, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, SJ, Younis, MZ, Yu, C, Yu, S, Zaidi, Z, Zaki, MELS, Zeeb, H, Zhang, H, Zhao, Y, Zodpey, S, Zoeckler, L, Zuhlke, LJ, Lopez, AD, and Murray, CJ

Subjects
GBD 2015 HIV Collaborators
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. Funding: We thank the countless individuals who have contributed to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2015 in various capacities. We specifically thank Jeffrey Eaton and John Stover. HW and CJLM received funding for this study from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; the National Institute of Mental Health, National Institutes of Health (NIH; R01MH110163); and the National Institute on Aging, NIH (P30AG047845). LJAR acknowledges the support of Qatar National Research Fund (NPRP 04-924-3-251) who provided the main funding for generating the data provided to the GBD-Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation effort. BPAQ acknowledges institutional support from PRONABEC (National Program of Scholarship and Educational Loan), provided by the Peruvian government. DB is supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant number OPP1068048). JDN was supported in his contribution to this work by a Fellowship from Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, Portugal (SFRH/BPD/92934/2013). KD is supported by a Wellcome Trust Fellowship in Public Health and Tropical Medicine (grant number 099876). TF received financial support from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF; project number P300P3-154634). AG acknowledges funding from Sistema Nacional de Investigadores de Panama-SNI. PJ is supported by Wellcome Trust-DBT India Alliance Clinical and Public Health Intermediate Fellowship. MK receives research support from the Academy of Finland, the Swedish Research Council, Alzheimerfonden, Alzheimer's Research & Prevention Foundation, Center for Innovative Medicine (CIMED) at Karolinska Institutet South Campus, AXA Research Fund, Wallenberg Clinical Scholars Award from the Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Foundation, and the Sheika Salama Bint Hamdan Al Nahyan Foundation. AK's work was supported by the Miguel Servet contract financed by the CP13/00150 and PI15/00862 projects, integrated into the National R&D&I and funded by the ISCIII (General Branch Evaluation and Promotion of Health Research), and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF-FEDER). SML is funded by a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinician Scientist Fellowship (grant number NIHR/CS/010/014). HJL reports grants from the NIHR, EU Innovative Medicines Initiative, Centre for Strategic & International Studies, and WHO. WM is Program analyst, Population and Development, in the Peru Country Office of the United Nations Population Fund, which does not necessarily endorse this study. For UOM, funding from the German National Cohort Consortium (O1ER1511D) is gratefully acknowledged. KR reports grants from NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Career Development Fellowship, and Oxford Martin School during the conduct of the study. GR acknowledges that work related to this paper has been done on the behalf of the GBD Genitourinary Disease Expert Group supported by the International Society of Nephrology (ISN). ISS reports grants from FAPESP (Brazilian public agency). RSS receives institutional support from Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales, UDCA, Bogota Colombia. SS receives postdoctoral funding from the Fonds de la recherche en sante du Quebec (FRSQ), including its renewal. RTS was supported in part by grant number PROMETEOII/2015/021 from Generalitat Valenciana and the national grant PI14/00894 from ISCIII-FEDER. PY acknowledges support from Strategic Public Policy Research (HKU7003-SPPR-12).

Published
2016

3. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Vos, T, Barber, Rm, Bell, B, Bertozzi Villa, A, Biryukov, S, Bolliger, I, Charlson, F, Davis, A, Degenhardt, L, Dicker, D, Duan, L, Erskine, H, Feigin, Vl, Ferrari, Aj, Fitzmaurice, C, Fleming, T, Graetz, N, Guinovart, C, Haagsma, J, Hansen, Gm, Hanson, Sw, Heuton, Kr, Higashi, H, Kassebaum, N, Kyu, H, Laurie, E, Liang, X, Lofgren, K, Lozano, R, Macintyre, Mf, Moradi Lakeh, M, Naghavi, M, Nguyen, G, Odell, S, Ortblad, K, Roberts, Da, Roth, Ga, Sandar, L, Serina, Pt, Stanaway, Jd, Steiner, C, Thomas, B, Vollset, Se, Whiteford, H, Wolock, Tm, Ye, P, Zhou, M, Ãvila, Ma, Aasvang, Gm, Abbafati, C, Abbasoglu, Ozgoren, A, Abd Allah, F, Abdel, Aziz, Abera, Sf, Aboyans, V, Abraham, Jp, Abraham, B, Abubakar, I, Abu Raddad, Lj, Abu Rmeileh, Nm, Aburto, Tc, Achoki, T, Ackerman, In, Adelekan, A, Ademi, Z, Adou, Ak, Adsuar, Jc, Arnlov, J, Agardh, Ee, Khabouri, Al, Alam, Ss, Alasfoor, D, Albittar, Mi, Alegretti, Ma, Aleman, Av, Alemu, Za, Alfonso Cristancho, R, Alhabib, S, Ali, R, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Allen, Pj, Almazroa, Ma, Alsharif, U, Alvarez, E, Alvis, Guzman, Ameli, N, O, Amini, H, Ammar, W, Anderson, Bo, Anderson, Hr, Antonio, Ca, Anwari, P, Apfel, H, Arsenijevic, Vs, Artaman, A, Asghar, Rj, Assadi, R, Atkins, Ls, Atkinson, C, Badawi, A, Bahit, Mc, Bakfalouni, T, Balakrishnan, K, Balalla, S, Banerjee, A, Barker Collo, Sl, Barquera, S, Barregard, L, Barrero, Lh, Basu, S, Basu, A, Baxter, A, Beardsley, J, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Bekele, T, Bell, Ml, Benjet, C, Bennett, Da, Bensenor, Im, Benzian, H, Bernabe, E, Beyene, Tj, Bhala, N, Bhalla, A, Bhutta, Z, Bienhoff, K, Bikbov, B, Bin, Abdulhak, Blore, Jd, Blyth, Fm, Bohensky, Ma, Bora, Basara, B, Borges, G, Bornstein, Nm, Bose, D, Boufous, S, Bourne, Rr, Boyers, Ln, Brainin, M, Brauer, M, Brayne, Ce, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, Nj, Brenner, H, Briggs, Ad, Brooks, Pm, Brown, J, Brugha, Ts, Buchbinder, R, Buckle, Gc, Bukhman, G, Bulloch, Ag, Burch, M, Burnett, R, Cardenas, R, Cabral, Nl, Campos, Nonato, Campuzano, Ir, Carapetis, Jc, Carpenter, Do, Caso, V, Castaneda Orjuela, Ca, Catala Lopez, F, Chadha, Vk, Chang, Jc, Chen, H, Chen, W, Chiang, Pp, Chimed Ochir, O, Chowdhury, R, Christensen, H, Christophi, Ca, Chugh, Ss, Cirillo, Massimo, Coggeshall, M, Cohen, A, Colistro, V, Colquhoun, Sm, Contreras, Ag, Cooper, Lt, Cooper, C, Cooperrider, K, Coresh, J, Cortinovis, M, Criqui, Mh, Crump, Ja, Cuevas Nasu, L, Dandona, R, Dandona, L, Dansereau, E, Dantes, Hg, Dargan, Pi, Davey, G, Davitoiu, Dv, Dayama, A, La, De, Cruz, Gongora, De, V, Vega, La, De, Sf, Leo, D, Del, Pozo, Cruz, Dellavalle, Rp, Deribe, K, Derrett, S, Des, Jarlais, Dessalegn, M, Deveber, Ga, Dharmaratne, Sd, Diaz Torne, C, Ding, El, Dokova, K, Dorsey, Er, Driscoll, Tr, Duber, H, Durrani, Am, Edmond, Km, Ellenbogen, Rg, Endres, M, Ermakov, Sp, Eshrati, B, Esteghamati, A, Estep, K, Fahimi, S, Farzadfar, F, Fay, Df, Felson, Dt, Fereshtehnejad, Sm, Fernandes, Jg, Ferri, Cp, Flaxman, A, Foigt, N, Foreman, Kj, Fowkes, Fg, Franklin, Rc, Furst, T, Futran, Nd, Gabbe, Bj, Gankpe, Fg, Garcia, Guerra, Geleijnse, Fa, Gessner, Bd, Gibney, Kb, Gillum, Rf, Ginawi, Ia, Giroud, M, Giussani, G, Goenka, S, Goginashvili, K, Gona, P, Gonzalez, De, Cosio, T, Gosselin, Ra, Gotay, Cc, Goto, A, Gouda, Hn, Guerrant, Rl, Gugnani, Hc, Gunnell, D, Gupta, R, Gutierrez, Ra, Hafezi Nejad, N, Hagan, H, Halasa, Y, Hamadeh, Rr, Hamavid, H, Hammami, M, Hankey, Gj, Hao, Y, Harb, Hl, Haro, Jm, Havmoeller, R, Hay, Rj, Hay, S, Hedayati, Mt, Heredia, Pi, Heydarpour, P, Hijar, M, Hoek, Hw, Hoffman, Hj, Hornberger, Jc, Hosgood, Hd, Hossain, M, Hotez, Pj, Hoy, Dg, Hsairi, M, Hu, H, Hu, G, Huang, Jj, Huang, C, Huiart, L, Husseini, A, Iannarone, M, Iburg, Km, Innos, K, Inoue, M, Jacobsen, Kh, Jassal, Sk, Jeemon, P, Jensen, Pn, Jha, V, Jiang, G, Jiang, Y, Jonas, Jb, Joseph, J, Juel, K, Kan, H, Karch, A, Karimkhani, C, Karthikeyan, G, Katz, R, Kaul, A, Kawakami, N, Kazi, Ds, Kemp, Ah, Kengne, Ap, Khader, Ys, Khalifa, Se, Khan, Ea, Khan, G, Khang, Yh, Khonelidze, I, Kieling, C, Kim, D, Kim, S, Kimokoti, Rw, Kinfu, Y, Kinge, Jm, Kissela, Bm, Kivipelto, M, Knibbs, L, Knudsen, Ak, Kokubo, Y, Kosen, S, Kramer, A, Kravchenko, M, Krishnamurthi, Rv, Krishnaswami, S, Kuate, Defo, Kucuk, B, Bicer, B, Kuipers, Ej, Kulkarni, Vs, Kumar, K, Kumar, Ga, Kwan, Gf, Lai, T, Lalloo, R, Lam, H, Lan, Q, Lansingh, Vc, Larson, H, Larsson, A, Lawrynowicz, Ae, Leasher, Jl, Lee, Jt, Leigh, J, Leung, R, Levi, M, Li, B, Li, Y, Liang, J, Lim, S, Lin, Hh, Lind, M, Lindsay, Mp, Lipshultz, Se, Liu, S, Lloyd, Bk, Lockett, Ohno, S, Logroscino, G, Looker, Kj, Lopez, Ad, Lopez Olmedo, N, Lortet Tieulent, J, Lotufo, Pa, Low, N, Lucas, Rm, Lunevicius, R, Lyons, Ra, Ma, J, Ma, S, Mackay, Mt, Majdan, M, Malekzadeh, R, Mapoma, Cc, Marcenes, W, March, Lm, Margono, C, Marks, Gb, Marzan, Mb, Masci, Jr, Mason Jones, Aj, Matzopoulos, Rg, Mayosi, Bm, Mazorodze, Tt, Mcgill, Nw, Mcgrath, Jj, Mckee, M, Mclain, A, Mcmahon, Bj, Meaney, Pa, Mehndiratta, Mm, Mejia Rodriguez, F, Mekonnen, W, Melaku, Ya, Meltzer, M, Memish, Za, Mensah, G, Meretoja, A, Mhimbira, Fa, Micha, R, Miller, Tr, Mills, Ej, Mitchell, Pb, Mock, Cn, Moffitt, Te, Mohamed, Ibrahim, N, Mohammad, Ka, Mokdad, Ah, Mola, Gl, Monasta, L, Montico, M, Montine, Tj, Moore, Ar, Moran, Ae, Morawska, L, Mori, R, Moschandreas, J, Moturi, Wn, Moyer, M, Mozaffarian, D, Mueller, Uo, Mukaigawara, M, Murdoch, Me, Murray, J, Murthy, Ks, Naghavi, P, Nahas, Z, Naheed, A, Naidoo, Ks, Naldi, L, Nand, D, Nangia, V, Narayan, Km, Nash, D, Nejjari, C, Neupane, Sp, Newman, Lm, Newton, Cr, Ng, M, Ngalesoni, Fn, Nhung, Nt, Nisar, Mi, Nolte, S, Norheim, Of, Norman, Re, Norrving, B, Nyakarahuka, L, Ih, Oh, Ohkubo, T, Omer, Sb, Opio, Jn, Ortiz, A, Pandian, Jd, Panelo, Ci, Papachristou, C, Park, Ek, Parry, Cd, Caicedo, Aj, Patten, Sb, Paul, Vk, Pavlin, Bi, Pearce, N, Pedraza, Ls, Pellegrini, Ca, Pereira, Dm, Perez Ruiz, Fp, Perico, N, Pervaiz, A, Pesudovs, K, Peterson, Cb, Petzold, M, Phillips, Mr, Phillips, D, Phillips, B, Piel, Fb, Plass, D, Poenaru, D, Polanczyk, Gv, Polinder, S, Pope, Ca, Popova, S, Poulton, Rg, Pourmalek, F, Prabhakaran, D, Prasad, Nm, Qato, D, Quistberg, Da, Rafay, A, Rahimi, K, Rahimi Movaghar, V, Rahman, Su, Raju, M, Rakovac, I, Rana, Sm, Razavi, H, Refaat, A, Rehm, J, Remuzzi, G, Resnikoff, S, Ribeiro, Al, Riccio, Pm, Richardson, L, Richardus, Jh, Riederer, Am, Robinson, M, Roca, A, Rodriguez, A, Rojas Rueda, D, Ronfani, L, Rothenbacher, D, Roy, N, Ruhago, Gm, Sabin, N, Sacco, Rl, Ksoreide, K, Saha, S, Sahathevan, R, Sahraian, Ma, Sampson, U, Sanabria, Jr, Sanchez Riera, L, Santos, Is, Satpathy, M, Saunders, Je, Sawhney, M, Saylan, Mi, Scarborough, P, Schoettker, B, Schneider, Ij, Schwebel, Dc, Scott, Jg, Seedat, S, Sepanlou, Sg, Serdar, B, Servan Mori, Ee, Shackelford, K, Shaheen, A, Shahraz, S, Shamah, Levy, T, Shangguan, S, She, J, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shepard, Ds, Shi, P, Shibuya, K, Shinohara, Y, Shiri, R, Shishani, K, Shiue, I, Shrime, Mg, Sigfusdottir, Id, Silberberg, Dh, Simard, Ep, Sindi, S, Singh, Ja, Singh, L, Skirbekk, V, Sliwa, K, Soljak, M, Soneji, S, Soshnikov, Ss, Speyer, P, Sposato, La, Sreeramareddy, Ct, Stoeckl, H, Stathopoulou, Vk, Steckling, N, Stein, Mb, Stein, Dj, Steiner, Tj, Stewart, A, Stork, E, Stovner, Lj, Stroumpoulis, K, Sturua, L, Sunguya, Bf, Swaroop, M, Sykes, Bl, Tabb, Km, Takahashi, K, Tan, F, Tandon, N, Tanne, D, Tanner, M, Tavakkoli, M, Taylor, Hr, Ao, Te, Temesgen, Am, Ten, Have, M, Tenkorang, Ey, Terkawi, As, Theadom, Am, Thomas, E, Thorne Lyman, Al, Thrift, Ag, Tleyjeh, Im, Tonelli, M, Topouzis, F, Towbin, Ja, Toyoshima, H, Traebert, J, Tran, Bx, Trasande, L, Trillini, M, Truelsen, T, Trujillo, U, Tsilimbaris, M, Tuzcu, Em, Ukwaja, Kn, Undurraga, Ea, Uzun, Sb, Van, Brakel, Van, Wh, Vijver, De, Van, S, Dingenen, R, Van, Gool, Varakin, Yy, Vasankari, Tj, Vavilala, Ms, Veerman, Lj, Velasquez, Melendez, G, Venketasubramanian, N, Vijayakumar, L, Villalpando, S, Violante, Fs, Vlassov, Vv, Waller, S, Wallin, Mt, Wan, X, Wang, L, Wang, J, Wang, Y, Warouw, Ts, Weichenthal, S, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, Rg, Werdecker, A, Wessells, Kr, Westerman, R, Wilkinson, Jd, Williams, Hc, Williams, Tn, Woldeyohannes, Sm, Wolfe, Cd, Wong, Jq, Wong, H, Woolf, Ad, Wright, Jl, Wurtz, B, Xu, G, Yang, G, Yano, Y, Yenesew, Ma, Yentur, Gk, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, Sj, Younis, M, Yu, C, Kim, Ky, Zaki, Mel, Zhang, Y, Zhao, Z, Zhao, Y, Zhu, J, Zonies, D, Zunt, Jr, Salomon, Ja, Murray, C. J., Vos, T, Barber, Rm, Bell, B, Bertozzi-Villa, A, Biryukov, S, Bolliger, I, Charlson, F, Davis, A, Degenhardt, L, Dicker, D, Duan, L, Erskine, H, Feigin, Vl, Ferrari, Aj, Fitzmaurice, C, Fleming, T, Graetz, N, Guinovart, C, Haagsma, J, Hansen, Gm, Hanson, Sw, Heuton, Kr, Higashi, H, Kassebaum, N, Kyu, H, Laurie ELiang, X, Lofgren, K, Lozano, R, Macintyre, Mf, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Naghavi, M, Nguyen, G, Odell, S, Ortblad, K, Roberts, Da, Roth, Ga, Sandar, L, Serina, Pt, Stanaway, Jd, Steiner, C, Thomas, B, Vollset, Se, Whiteford, H, Wolock, Tm, Ye, P, Zhou, M, Ãvila, Ma, Aasvang, Gm, Abbafati, C, Abbasoglu Ozgoren, A, Abd-Allah, F, Abdel Aziz MI, Abera, Sf, Aboyans, V, Abraham, Jp, Abraham, B, Abubakar, I, Abu-Raddad, Lj, Abu-Rmeileh, Nm, Aburto, Tc, Achoki TAckerman IN, Adelekan, A, Ademi, Z, Adou, Ak, Adsuar, Jc, Arnlov, J, Agardh, Ee, Al Khabouri MJ, Alam, S, Alasfoor, D, Albittar, Mi, Alegretti MAAleman AV, Alemu, Za, Alfonso-Cristancho, R, Alhabib, S, Ali, R, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Allen, Pj, Almazroa, Ma, Alsharif, U, Alvarez, E, Alvis-Guzman NAmeli, O, Amini, H, Ammar, W, Anderson, Bo, Anderson, Hr, Antonio, Ca, Anwari, P, Apfel, H, Arsenijevic, V, Artaman, A, Asghar, Rj, Assadi, R, Atkins, L, Atkinson, C, Badawi, A, Bahit, Mc, Bakfalouni, T, Balakrishnan, K, Balalla, S, Banerjee, A, Barker-Collo, Sl, Barquera, S, Barregard, L, Barrero LHBasu, S, Basu, A, Baxter, A, Beardsley, J, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Bekele, T, Bell, Ml, Benjet, C, Bennett, Da, Bensenor, Im, Benzian, H, Bernabe, E, Beyene TJBhala, N, Bhalla, A, Bhutta, Z, Bienhoff, K, Bikbov, B, Bin Abdulhak, A, Blore, Jd, Blyth, Fm, Bohensky, Ma, Bora Basara, B, Borges, G, Bornstein, Nm, Bose, D, Boufous, S, Bourne, Rr, Boyers, Ln, Brainin, M, Brauer, M, Brayne, Ce, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, Nj, Brenner, H, Briggs, Ad, Brooks, Pm, Brown JBrugha TS, Buchbinder, R, Buckle, Gc, Bukhman, G, Bulloch, Ag, Burch, M, Burnett, R, Cardenas, R, Cabral, Nl, Campos Nonato IR, Campuzano JCCarapetis JR, Carpenter, Do, Caso, V, Castaneda-Orjuela, Ca, Catala-Lopez, F, Chadha, Vk, Chang, Jc, Chen, H, Chen, W, Chiang, Pp, Chimed-Ochir, O, Chowdhury, R, Christensen, H, Christophi, Ca, Chugh, S, Cirillo, M, Coggeshall, M, Cohen, A, Colistro, V, Colquhoun, Sm, Contreras, Ag, Cooper LTCooper, C, Cooperrider, K, Coresh, J, Cortinovis, M, Criqui, Mh, Crump, Ja, Cuevas-Nasu, L, Dandona, R, Dandona, L, Dansereau, E, Dantes, Hg, Dargan, Pi, Davey, G, Davitoiu, Dv, Dayama, A, De la Cruz-Gongora, V, de la Vega SF, De Leo, D, del Pozo-Cruz, B, Dellavalle, Rp, Deribe, K, Derrett, S, Des Jarlais DC, Dessalegn, M, Deveber, Ga, Dharmaratne, Sd, Diaz-Torne, C, Ding, El, Dokova, K, Dorsey, Er, Driscoll, Tr, Duber, H, Durrani, Am, Edmond, Km, Ellenbogen, Rg, Endres, M, Ermakov, Sp, Eshrati, B, Esteghamati, A, Estep, K, Fahimi, S, Farzadfar, F, Fay, Df, Felson, Dt, Fereshtehnejad SMFernandes JG, Ferri, Cp, Flaxman, A, Foigt, N, Foreman, Kj, Fowkes, Fg, Franklin, Rc, Furst, T, Futran, Nd, Gabbe, Bj, Gankpe, Fg, Garcia-Guerra FAGeleijnse JM, Gessner, Bd, Gibney, Kb, Gillum, Rf, Ginawi, Ia, Giroud, M, Giussani, G, Goenka, S, Goginashvili, K, Gona, P, Gonzalez de Cosio TGosselin RA, Gotay, Cc, Goto, A, Gouda, Hn, Guerrant, Rl, Gugnani, Hc, Gunnell, D, Gupta, R, Gutierrez, Ra, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Hagan HHalasa, Y, Hamadeh, Rr, Hamavid, H, Hammami, M, Hankey, Gj, Hao, Y, Harb, Hl, Haro, Jm, Havmoeller, R, Hay, Rj, Hay, S, Hedayati, Mt, Heredia Pi IB, Heydarpour, P, Hijar, M, Hoek, Hw, Hoffman, Hj, Hornberger, Jc, Hosgood, Hd, Hossain, M, Hotez, Pj, Hoy, Dg, Hsairi, M, Hu, H, Hu, G, Huang JJHuang, C, Huiart, L, Husseini, A, Iannarone, M, Iburg, Km, Innos, K, Inoue, M, Jacobsen, Kh, Jassal, Sk, Jeemon, P, Jensen, Pn, Jha, V, Jiang, G, Jiang YJonas JB, Joseph, J, Juel, K, Kan, H, Karch, A, Karimkhani, C, Karthikeyan, G, Katz, R, Kaul, A, Kawakami, N, Kazi, D, Kemp, Ah, Kengne, Ap, Khader, Y, Khalifa, Se, Khan, Ea, Khan, G, Khang, Yh, Khonelidze, I, Kieling, C, Kim, D, Kim, S, Kimokoti, Rw, Kinfu, Y, Kinge, Jm, Kissela, Bm, Kivipelto MKnibbs, L, Knudsen, Ak, Kokubo, Y, Kosen, S, Kramer, A, Kravchenko, M, Krishnamurthi, Rv, Krishnaswami, S, Kuate Defo, B, Kucuk Bicer, B, Kuipers EJKulkarni VS, Kumar, K, Kumar, Ga, Kwan, Gf, Lai, T, Lalloo, R, Lam, H, Lan, Q, Lansingh, Vc, Larson, H, Larsson, A, Lawrynowicz, Ae, Leasher, Jl, Lee, Jt, Leigh, J, Leung, R, Levi, M, Li, B, Li, Y, Liang, J, Lim, S, Lin, Hh, Lind, M, Lindsay, Mp, Lipshultz, Se, Liu, S, Lloyd, Bk, Lockett Ohno, S, Logroscino, G, Looker, Kj, Lopez, Ad, Lopez-Olmedo, N, Lortet-Tieulent, J, Lotufo, Pa, Low, N, Lucas, Rm, Lunevicius, R, Lyons, Ra, Ma, J, Ma, S, Mackay MTMajdan, M, Malekzadeh, R, Mapoma, Cc, Marcenes, W, March, Lm, Margono, C, Marks, Gb, Marzan, Mb, Masci, Jr, Mason-Jones, Aj, Matzopoulos RGMayosi BM, Mazorodze, Tt, Mcgill, Nw, Mcgrath, Jj, Mckee, M, Mclain, A, Mcmahon, Bj, Meaney, Pa, Mehndiratta, Mm, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Mekonnen, W, Melaku, Ya, Meltzer, M, Memish, Za, Mensah, G, Meretoja, A, Mhimbira, Fa, Micha, R, Miller, Tr, Mills, Ej, Mitchell, Pb, Mock, Cn, Moffitt TEMohamed Ibrahim, N, Mohammad, Ka, Mokdad, Ah, Mola, Gl, Monasta, L, Montico, M, Montine, Tj, Moore, Ar, Moran, Ae, Morawska, L, Mori RMoschandreas, J, Moturi, Wn, Moyer, M, Mozaffarian, D, Mueller, Uo, Mukaigawara, M, Murdoch, Me, Murray, J, Murthy, K, Naghavi, P, Nahas ZNaheed, A, Naidoo, K, Naldi, L, Nand, D, Nangia, V, Narayan, Km, Nash, D, Nejjari, C, Neupane, Sp, Newman, Lm, Newton, Cr, Ng, M, Ngalesoni FNNhung NT, Nisar, Mi, Nolte, S, Norheim, Of, Norman, Re, Norrving, B, Nyakarahuka, L, Oh, Ih, Ohkubo, T, Omer, Sb, Opio, Jn, Ortiz, A, Pandian JDPanelo CI, Papachristou, C, Park, Ek, Parry, Cd, Caicedo, Aj, Patten, Sb, Paul, Vk, Pavlin, Bi, Pearce, N, Pedraza, L, Pellegrini, Ca, Pereira, Dm, Perez-Ruiz, Fp, Perico, N, Pervaiz, A, Pesudovs, K, Peterson, Cb, Petzold, M, Phillips, Mr, Phillips, D, Phillips, B, Piel, Fb, Plass, D, Poenaru, D, Polanczyk GVPolinder, S, Pope, Ca, Popova, S, Poulton, Rg, Pourmalek, F, Prabhakaran, D, Prasad, Nm, Qato, D, Quistberg, Da, Rafay, A, Rahimi, K, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, Su, Raju, M, Rakovac, I, Rana, Sm, Razavi, H, Refaat, A, Rehm, J, Remuzzi, G, Resnikoff, S, Ribeiro, Al, Riccio, Pm, Richardson, L, Richardus, Jh, Riederer, Am, Robinson, M, Roca, A, Rodriguez, A, Rojas-Rueda, D, Ronfani, L, Rothenbacher, D, Roy, N, Ruhago, Gm, Sabin, N, Sacco, Rl, Ksoreide, K, Saha, S, Sahathevan, R, Sahraian, Ma, Sampson, U, Sanabria, Jr, Sanchez-Riera, L, Santos, I, Satpathy, M, Saunders, Je, Sawhney, M, Saylan MIScarborough, P, Schoettker, B, Schneider, Ij, Schwebel, Dc, Scott, Jg, Seedat, S, Sepanlou, Sg, Serdar, B, Servan-Mori, Ee, Shackelford, K, Shaheen AShahraz, S, Shamah Levy, T, Shangguan, S, She, J, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shepard, D, Shi, P, Shibuya, K, Shinohara, Y, Shiri, R, Shishani, K, Shiue, I, Shrime, Mg, Sigfusdottir, Id, Silberberg, Dh, Simard, Ep, Sindi, S, Singh, Ja, Singh, L, Skirbekk, V, Sliwa, K, Soljak, M, Soneji, S, Soshnikov, S, Speyer PSposato LA, Sreeramareddy, Ct, Stoeckl, H, Stathopoulou, Vk, Steckling, N, Stein, Mb, Stein, Dj, Steiner, Tj, Stewart, A, Stork, E, Stovner LJStroumpoulis, K, Sturua, L, Sunguya, Bf, Swaroop, M, Sykes, Bl, Tabb, Km, Takahashi, K, Tan, F, Tandon, N, Tanne, D, Tanner, M, Tavakkoli, M, Taylor, Hr, Te Ao BJ, Temesgen, Am, Ten Have, M, Tenkorang, Ey, Terkawi, A, Theadom, Am, Thomas, E, Thorne-Lyman, Al, Thrift, Ag, Tleyjeh, Im, Tonelli, M, Topouzis, F, Towbin, Ja, Toyoshima, H, Traebert, J, Tran, Bx, Trasande, L, Trillini, M, Truelsen, T, Trujillo, U, Tsilimbaris, M, Tuzcu, Em, Ukwaja KNUndurraga EA, Uzun, Sb, van Brakel WH, van de Vijver, S, Van Dingenen, R, van Gool CH, Varakin, Yy, Vasankari, Tj, Vavilala, M, Veerman LJVelasquez-Melendez, G, Venketasubramanian, N, Vijayakumar, L, Villalpando, S, Violante, F, Vlassov, Vv, Waller, S, Wallin, Mt, Wan, X, Wang, L, Wang, J, Wang, Y, Warouw, T, Weichenthal, S, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, Rg, Werdecker, A, Wessells, Kr, Westerman, R, Wilkinson, Jd, Williams HCWilliams TN, Woldeyohannes, Sm, Wolfe, Cd, Wong, Jq, Wong, H, Woolf, Ad, Wright, Jl, Wurtz, B, Xu, G, Yang, G, Yano, Y, Yenesew, Ma, Yentur GKYip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, Sj, Younis, M, Yu, C, Kim, Ky, Zaki Mel, S, Zhang, Y, Zhao, Z, Zhao, Y, Zhu, J, Zonies, D, Zunt, Jr, Salomon, Ja, Murray, Cj., Vos, Theo, Barber, Ryan M., Bell, Brad, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Biryukov, Stan, Bolliger, Ian, Charlson, Fiona, Davis, Adrian, Degenhardt, Louisa, Dicker, Daniel, Duan, Leilei, Erskine, Holly, Feigin, Valery L., Ferrari, Alize J., Fitzmaurice, Christina, Fleming, Thoma, Graetz, Nichola, Guinovart, Caterina, Haagsma, Juanita, Hansen, Gillian M., Hanson, Sarah Wulf, Heuton, Kyle R., Higashi, Hideki, Kassebaum, Nichola, Kyu, Hmwe, Laurie, Evan, Liang, Xiofeng, Lofgren, Katherine, Lozano, Rafael, Macintyre, Michael F., Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Naghavi, Mohsen, Nguyen, Grant, Odell, Shaun, Ortblad, Katrina, Roberts, David Allen, Roth, Gregory A., Sandar, Logan, Serina, Peter T., Stanaway, Jeffrey D., Steiner, Caitlyn, Thomas, Bernadette, Vollset, Stein Emil, Whiteford, Harvey, Wolock, Timothy M., Ye, Pengpeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Ãvila, Marco A., Aasvang, Gunn Marit, Abbafati, Cristiana, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abd-Allah, Foad, Aziz, Muna I. Abdel, Abera, Semaw F., Aboyans, Victor, Abraham, Jerry P., Abraham, Biju, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J., Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E., Aburto, Tania C., Achoki, Tom, Ackerman, Ilana N., Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Adou, Arsène K., Adsuar, Josef C., Arnlov, Johan, Agardh, Emilie E., Al Khabouri, Mazin J., Alam, Sayed Saidul, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I., Alegretti, Miguel A., Aleman, Alicia V., Alemu, Zewdie A., Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, Francoi, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Peter J., Almazroa, Mohammad Abdulaziz, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Ameli, Omid, Amini, Heresh, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, Benjamin O., Anderson, H. Ro, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Anwari, Palwasha, Apfel, Henry, Arsenijevic, Valentain S. Arsic, Artaman, Al, Asghar, Rana J., Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S., Atkinson, Charle, Badawi, Alaa, Bahit, Maria C., Bakfalouni, Talal, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Balalla, Shivanthi, Banerjee, Amitava, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L., Barquera, Simon, Barregard, Lar, Barrero, Lope H., Basu, Sanjay, Basu, Arindam, Baxter, Amanda, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L., Benjet, Corina, Bennett, Derrick A., Bensenor, Isabela M., Benzian, Habib, Bernabe, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku J., Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Bienhoff, Kelly, Bikbov, Bori, Abdulhak, Aref Bin, Blore, Jed D., Blyth, Fiona M., Bohensky, Megan A., Basara, Berrak Bora, Borges, Guilherme, Bornstein, Natan M., Bose, Dipan, Boufous, Soufiane, Bourne, Rupert R., Boyers, Lindsay N., Brainin, Michael, Brauer, Michael, Brayne, Carol E.G., Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J.K., Brenner, Hermann, Briggs, Adam D.M., Brooks, Peter M., Brown, Jonathan, Brugha, Traolach S., Buchbinder, Rachelle, Buckle, Geoffrey C., Bukhman, Gene, Bulloch, Andrew G., Burch, Michael, Burnett, Richard, Cardenas, Rosario, Cabral, Norberto L., Campos-Nonato, Ismael R., Campuzano, Julio C., Carapetis, Jonathan R., Carpenter, David O., Caso, Valeria, Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Catala-Lopez, Ferran, Chadha, Vineet K., Chang, Jung-Chen, Chen, Honglei, Chen, Wanqing, Chiang, Peggy P., Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Christophi, Costas A., Chugh, Sumeet S., Cirillo, Massimo, Coggeshall, Megan, Cohen, Aaron, Colistro, Valentina, Colquhoun, Samantha M., Contreras, Alejandra G., Cooper, Leslie T., Cooper, Cyru, Cooperrider, Kimberly, Coresh, Josef, Cortinovis, Monica, Criqui, Michael H., Crump, John A., Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia, Dandona, Rakhi, Dandona, Lalit, Dansereau, Emily, Dantes, Hector G., Dargan, Paul I., Davey, Gail, Davitoiu, Dragos V., Dayama, Anand, De La Cruz-Gongora, Vanessa, De La Vega, Shelley F., De Leo, Diego, Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Dellavalle, Robert P., Deribe, Kebede, Derrett, Sarah, Des Jarlais, Don C., Dessalegn, Muluken, Deveber, Gabrielle A., Dharmaratne, Samath D., Diaz-Torne, Cesar, Ding, Eric L., Dokova, Klara, Dorsey, E.R., Driscoll, Tim R., Duber, Herbert, Durrani, Adnan M., Edmond, Karen M., Ellenbogen, Richard G., Endres, Matthia, Ermakov, Sergey P., Eshrati, Babak, Esteghamati, Alireza, Estep, Kara, Fahimi, Saman, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fay, Derek F.J., Felson, David T., Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Jefferson G., Ferri, Cluesa P., Flaxman, Abraham, Foigt, Nataliya, Foreman, Kyle J., Fowkes, F Gerry R., Franklin, Richard C., Furst, Thoma, Futran, Neal D., Gabbe, Belinda J., Gankpe, Fortune G., Garcia-Guerra, Francisco A., Geleijnse, Johanna M., Gessner, Bradford D., Gibney, Katherine B., Gillum, Richard F., Ginawi, Ibrahim A., Giroud, Maurice, Giussani, Giorgia, Goenka, Shifalika, Goginashvili, Ketevan, Gona, Philimon, De Cosio, Teresita Gonzalez, Gosselin, Richard A., Gotay, Carolyn C., Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N., Guerrant, Richard L., Gugnani, Harish C., Gunnell, David, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Rahul, Gutierrez, Reyna A., Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hagan, Holly, Halasa, Yara, Hamadeh, Randah R., Hamavid, Hannah, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J., Hao, Yuantao, Harb, Hilda L., Haro, Josep Maria, Havmoeller, Rasmu, Hay, Roderick J., Hay, Simon, Hedayati, Mohammad T., Pi, Ileana B. Heredia, Heydarpour, Pouria, Hijar, Martha, Hoek, Hans W., Hoffman, Howard J., Hornberger, John C., Hosgood, H. Dean, Hossain, Mazeda, Hotez, Peter J., Hoy, Damian G., Hsairi, Mohamed, Hu, Howard, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, John J., Huang, Cheng, Huiart, Laetitia, Husseini, Abdullatif, Iannarone, Marissa, Iburg, Kim M., Innos, Kaire, Inoue, Manami, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jassal, Simerjot K., Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jensen, Paul N., Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jiang, Ying, Jonas, Jost B., Joseph, Jonathan, Juel, Knud, Kan, Haidong, Karch, Andre, Karimkhani, Chante, Karthikeyan, Ganesan, Katz, Ronit, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazi, Dhruv S., Kemp, Andrew H., Kengne, Andre P., Khader, Yousef S., Khalifa, Shams Eldin A.H., Khan, Ejaz A., Khan, Gulfaraz, Khang, Young-Ho, Khonelidze, Irma, Kieling, Christian, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kimokoti, Ruth W., Kinfu, Yohanne, Kinge, Jonas M., Kissela, Brett M., Kivipelto, Miia, Knibbs, Luke, Knudsen, Ann Kristin, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Kramer, Alexander, Kravchenko, Michael, Krishnamurthi, Rita V., Krishnaswami, Sanjay, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Bicer, Burcu Kucuk, Kuipers, Ernst J., Kulkarni, Veena S., Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, G Anil, Kwan, Gene F., Lai, Taavi, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C., Larson, Heidi, Larsson, Ander, Lawrynowicz, Alicia E.B., Leasher, Janet L., Lee, Jong-Tae, Leigh, Jame, Leung, Ricky, Levi, Miriam, Li, Bin, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, Liang, Juan, Lim, Stephen, Lin, Hsien-Ho, Lind, Margaret, Lindsay, M Patrice, Lipshultz, Steven E., Liu, Shiwei, Lloyd, Belinda K., Ohno, Summer Lockett, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Looker, Katharine J., Lopez, Alan D., Lopez-Olmedo, Nancy, Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie, Lotufo, Paulo A., Low, Nicola, Lucas, Robyn M., Lunevicius, Raimunda, Lyons, Ronan A., Ma, Jixiang, Ma, Stefan, Mackay, Mark T., Majdan, Marek, Malekzadeh, Reza, Mapoma, Christopher C., Marcenes, Wagner, March, Lyn M., Margono, Chri, Marks, Guy B., Marzan, Melvin B., Masci, Joseph R., Mason-Jones, Amanda J., Matzopoulos, Richard G., Mayosi, Bongani M., Mazorodze, Tasara T., Mcgill, Neil W., Mcgrath, John J., Mckee, Martin, Mclain, Abby, Mcmahon, Brian J., Meaney, Peter A., Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola, Mekonnen, Wubegzier, Melaku, Yohannes A., Meltzer, Michele, Memish, Ziad A., Mensah, George, Meretoja, Atte, Mhimbira, Francis A., Micha, Renata, Miller, Ted R., Mills, Edward J., Mitchell, Philip B., Mock, Charles N., Moffitt, Terrie E., Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed, Mohammad, Karzan A., Mokdad, Ali H., Mola, Glen L., Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Montine, Thomas J., Moore, Ami R., Moran, Andrew E., Morawska, Lidia, Mori, Rintaro, Moschandreas, Joanna, Moturi, Wilkister N., Moyer, Madeline, Mozaffarian, Dariush, Mueller, Ulrich O., Mukaigawara, Mitsuru, Murdoch, Michele E., Murray, Joseph, Murthy, Kinnari S., Naghavi, Paria, Nahas, Ziad, Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S., Naldi, Luigi, Nand, Devina, Nangia, Vinay, Narayan, K.M. Venkat, Nash, Deni, Nejjari, Chakib, Neupane, Sudan P., Newman, Lori M., Newton, Charles R., Ng, Marie, Ngalesoni, Frida N., Nhung, Nguyen T., Nisar, Muhammad I., Nolte, Sandra, Norheim, Ole F., Norman, Rosana E., Norrving, Bo, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Oh, In Hwan, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Omer, Saad B., Opio, John Nelson, Ortiz, Alberto, Pandian, Jeyaraj D., Panelo, Carlo Irwin A., Papachristou, Christina, Park, Eun-Kee, Parry, Charles D., Caicedo, Angel J. Paternina, Patten, Scott B., Paul, Vinod K., Pavlin, Boris I., Pearce, Neil, Pedraza, Lilia S., Pellegrini, Carlos A., Pereira, David M., Perez-Ruiz, Fernando P., Perico, Norberto, Pervaiz, Aslam, Pesudovs, Konrad, Peterson, Carrie B., Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael R., Phillips, David, Phillips, Bryan, Piel, Frederic B., Plass, Dietrich, Poenaru, Dan, Polanczyk, Guilherme V., Polinder, Suzanne, Pope, C.A., Popova, Svetlana, Poulton, Richie G., Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Prasad, Noela M., Qato, Dima, Quistberg, D.A., Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Raju, Murugesan, Rakovac, Ivo, Rana, Saleem M., Razavi, Homie, Refaat, Amany, Rehm, Jurgen, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Resnikoff, Serge, Ribeiro, Antonio L., Riccio, Patricia M., Richardson, Lee, Richardus, Jan Hendrik, Riederer, Anne M., Robinson, Margot, Roca, Anna, Rodriguez, Alina, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Roy, Nobhojit, Ruhago, George M., Sabin, Nsanzimana, Sacco, Ralph L., Ksoreide, Kjetil, Saha, Sukanta, Sahathevan, Ramesh, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sampson, Uchechukwu, Sanabria, Juan R., Sanchez-Riera, Lidia, Santos, Itamar S., Satpathy, Maheswar, Saunders, James E., Sawhney, Monika, Saylan, Mete I., Scarborough, Peter, Schoettker, Ben, Schneider, Ione J.C., Schwebel, David C., Scott, James G., Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Serdar, Berrin, Servan-Mori, Edson E., Shackelford, Katya, Shaheen, Amira, Shahraz, Saeid, Levy, Teresa Shamah, Shangguan, Siyi, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shepard, Donald S., Shi, Peilin, Shibuya, Kenji, Shinohara, Yukito, Shiri, Rahman, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Shrime, Mark G., Sigfusdottir, Inga D., Silberberg, Donald H., Simard, Edgar P., Sindi, Shireen, Singh, Jasvinder A., Singh, Lavanya, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soljak, Michael, Soneji, Samir, Soshnikov, Sergey S., Speyer, Peter, Sposato, Luciano A., Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Stoeckl, Heidi, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Steckling, Nadine, Stein, Murray B., Stein, Dan J., Steiner, Timothy J., Stewart, Andrea, Stork, Eden, Stovner, Lars J., Stroumpoulis, Konstantino, Sturua, Lela, Sunguya, Bruno F., Swaroop, Mamta, Sykes, Bryan L., Tabb, Karen M., Takahashi, Ken, Tan, Feng, Tandon, Nikhil, Tanne, David, Tanner, Marcel, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taylor, Hugh R., Te Ao, Braden J., Temesgen, Awoke Misganaw, Have, Margreet Ten, Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Theadom, Alice M., Thomas, Elissa, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L., Thrift, Amanda G., Tleyjeh, Imad M., Tonelli, Marcello, Topouzis, Foti, Towbin, Jeffrey A., Toyoshima, Hideaki, Traebert, Jefferson, Tran, Bach X., Trasande, Leonardo, Trillini, Matia, Truelsen, Thoma, Trujillo, Ulise, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadi, Tuzcu, Emin M., Ukwaja, Kingsley N., Undurraga, Eduardo A., Uzun, Selen B., Van Brakel, Wim H., Van De Vijver, Steven, Dingenen, Rita Van, Van Gool, Coen H., Varakin, Yuri Y., Vasankari, Tommi J., Vavilala, Monica S., Veerman, Lennert J., Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vijayakumar, Lakshmi, Villalpando, Salvador, Violante, Francesco S., Vlassov, Vasiliy V., Waller, Stephen, Wallin, Mitchell T., Wan, Xia, Wang, Linhong, Wang, Jianli, Wang, Yanping, Warouw, Tati S., Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G., Werdecker, Andrea, Wessells, K. Ryan, Westerman, Ronny, Wilkinson, James D., Williams, Hywel C., Williams, Thomas N., Woldeyohannes, Solomon M., Wolfe, Charles D.A., Wong, John Q., Wong, Haidong, Woolf, Anthony D., Wright, Jonathan L., Wurtz, Brittany, Xu, Gelin, Yang, Gonghuan, Yano, Yuichiro, Yenesew, Muluken A., Yentur, Gokalp K., Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Kim, Kim Yun, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Zhang, Yong, Zhao, Zheng, Zhao, Yong, Zhu, Jun, Zonies, David, Zunt, Joseph R., Salomon, Joshua A., Murray, Christopher J.L., Cell biology, Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Epidemiology, Health Technology Assessment (HTA), and Public Health

Subjects
Male, Gerontology, Nutrition and Disease, Epidemiology, years lived with disability, Global burden of disease, acute and chronic diseases, countries, Prevalence, Disease, Global Health, Medical and Health Sciences, Conduct disorder, Otitis-media, Cost of Illness, Residence Characteristics, Voeding en Ziekte, 80 and over, Global health, 2.2 Factors relating to the physical environment, 2.1 Biological and endogenous factors, countries, Aetiology, Child, Aged, 80 and over, Medicine(all), education.field_of_study, ATTENTION-DEFICIT/HYPERACTIVITY DISORDER, Incidence, Mortality rate, Incidence (epidemiology), Pain Research, Neglected Diseases, Alcohol dependence, General Medicine, Middle Aged, Global burden of disease, Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 Collaborators, Mental Health, Infectious Diseases, Attention deficit/Hyperactivity disorder, Burden of Illness, Child, Preschool, Acute Disease, Female, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Adult, medicine.medical_specialty, Adolescent, GBD 2013, Population, acute and chronic diseases, Young Adult, Mental-disorders, Age Distribution, Medicine, General & Internal, Weights, General & Internal Medicine, medicine, Humans, Life Science, Disabled Persons, Sex Distribution, Preschool, education, Developing Countries, VLAG, Aged, Science & Technology, business.industry, Developed Countries, Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Health outcomes, Newborn, medicine.disease, Comorbidity, Brain Disorders, years lived with disability, Good Health and Well Being, Disease, injury, incidence, prevalence, YLDs, GBD 2010, Chronic Disease, Wounds and Injuries, business, 2.4 Surveillance and distribution, Iron-deficiency, Demography
Abstract

Summary Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2015
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4. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Author

Wang, H, Wolock, TM, Carter, A, Nguyen, G, Kyu, HH, Gakidou, E, Hay, SI, Mills, EJ, Trickey, A, Msemburi, W, Coates, MM, Mooney, MD, Fraser, MS, Sligar, A, Salomon, J, Larson, HJ, Friedman, J, Abajobir, AA, Abate, KH, Abbas, KM, Abd El Razek, MM, Abd-Allah, F, Abdulle, AM, Abera, SF, Abubakar, I, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Abyu, GY, Adebiyi, AO, Adedeji, IA, Adelekan, AL, Adofo, K, Adou, AK, Ajala, ON, Akinyemiju, TF, Akseer, N, Al Lami, FH, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, NKM, Alasfoor, D, Aldhahri, SFS, Aldridge, RW, Alegretti, MA, Aleman, AV, Alemu, ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho, R, Ali, R, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Al-Raddadi, RMS, Alsharif, U, Alvarez, E, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Amberbir, A, Amegah, AK, Ammar, W, Amrock, SM, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Arnlov, J, Al, A, Asayesh, H, Asghar, RJ, Assadi, R, Atique, S, Atkins, LS, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Bacha, U, Badawi, A, Barac, A, Barnighausen, T, Basu, A, Bayou, TA, Bayou, YT, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Beardsley, J, Bedi, N, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Betsu, BD, Beyene, AS, Bhatia, E, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgilign, S, Bikbov, B, Birlik, SM, Bisanzio, D, Brainin, M, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, NJK, Brown, A, Burch, M, Butt, ZA, Campuzano, JC, Cardenas, R, Carrero, JJ, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Rivas, JC, Catala-Lopez, F, Chang, H-Y, Chang, J-C, Chavan, L, Chen, W, Chiang, PP-C, Chibalabala, M, Chisumpa, VH, Choi, J-YJ, Christopher, DJ, Ciobanu, LG, Cooper, C, Dahiru, T, Damtew, SA, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, das Neves, J, de Jager, P, De Leo, D, Degenhardt, L, Dellavalle, RP, Deribe, K, Deribew, A, Jarlais, DCD, Dharmaratne, SD, Ding, EL, Doshi, PP, Driscoll, TR, Dubey, M, Elshrek, YM, Elyazar, I, Endries, AY, Ermakov, SP, Eshrati, B, Esteghamati, A, Faghmous, IDA, Sofia e Sa Farinha, C, Faro, A, Farvid, MS, Farzadfar, F, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, JC, Fischer, F, Fitchett, JRA, Foigt, N, Fullman, N, Furst, T, Gankpe, FG, Gebre, T, Gebremedhin, AT, Gebru, AA, Geleijnse, JM, Gessner, BD, Gething, PW, Ghiwot, TT, Giroud, M, Gishu, MD, Glaser, E, Goenka, S, Goodridge, A, Gopalani, SV, Goto, A, Gugnani, HC, Guimaraes, MDC, Gupta, R, Gupta, V, Haagsma, J, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Hagan, H, Hailu, GB, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Hammami, M, Hankey, GJ, Hao, Y, Harb, HL, Harikrishnan, S, Haro, JM, Harun, KM, Havmoeller, R, Hedayati, MT, Heredia-Pi, IB, Hoek, HW, Horino, M, Horita, N, Hosgood, HD, Hoy, DG, Hsairi, M, Hu, G, Huang, H, Huang, JJ, Iburg, KM, Idrisov, BT, Innos, K, Iyer, VJ, Jacobsen, KH, Jahanmehr, N, Jakovljevic, MB, Javanbakht, M, Jayatilleke, AU, Jeemon, P, Jha, V, Jiang, G, Jiang, Y, Jibat, T, Jonas, JB, Kabir, Z, Kamal, R, Kan, H, Karch, A, Karema, CK, Karletsos, D, Kasaeian, A, Kaul, A, Kawakami, N, Kayibanda, JF, Keiyoro, PN, Kemp, AH, Kengne, AP, Kesavachandran, CN, Khader, YS, Khalil, I, Khan, AR, Khan, EA, Khang, Y-H, Khubchandani, J, Kim, YJ, Kinfu, Y, Kivipelto, M, Kokubo, Y, Kosen, S, Koul, PA, Koyanagi, A, Defo, BK, Bicer, BK, Kulkarni, VS, Kumar, GA, Lal, DK, Lam, H, Lam, JO, Langan, SM, Lansingh, VC, Larsson, A, Leigh, J, Leung, R, Li, Y, Lim, SS, Lipshultz, SE, Liu, S, Lloyd, BK, Logroscino, G, Lotufo, PA, Lunevicius, R, Abd El Razek, HM, Mahdavi, M, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Makhlouf, C, Malekzadeh, R, Mapoma, CC, Marcenes, W, Martinez-Raga, J, Marzan, MB, Masiye, F, Mason-Jones, AJ, Mayosi, BM, Mckee, M, Meaney, PA, Mehndiratta, MM, Mekonnen, AB, Melaku, YA, Memiah, P, Memish, ZA, Mendoza, W, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, TJ, Mhimbira, FA, Miller, TR, Mikesell, J, Mirarefin, M, Mohammad, KA, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Monasta, L, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Mori, R, Mueller, UO, Murimira, B, Murthy, GVS, Naheed, A, Naldi, L, Nangia, V, Nash, D, Nawaz, H, Nejjari, C, Ngalesoni, FN, Ngirabega, JDD, Quyen, LN, Nisar, MI, Norheim, OF, Norman, RE, Nyakarahuka, L, Ogbo, FA, Oh, I-H, Ojelabi, FA, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Opio, JN, Oren, E, Ota, E, Padukudru, MA, Park, H-Y, Park, J-H, Patil, ST, Patten, SB, Paul, VK, Pearson, K, Peprah, EK, Pereira, DM, Perico, N, Pesudovs, K, Petzold, M, Phillips, MR, Pillay, JD, Plass, D, Polinder, S, Pourmalek, F, Prokop, DM, Qorbani, M, Rafay, A, Rahimi, K, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Rahman, MHU, Rahman, SU, Rai, RK, Rajsic, S, Ram, U, Rana, SM, Rao, PV, Remuzzi, G, Rojas-Rueda, D, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Roy, A, Ruhago, GM, Saeedi, MY, Sagar, R, Saleh, MM, Sanabria, JR, Santos, IS, Sarmiento-Suarez, R, Sartorius, B, Sawhney, M, Schutte, AE, Schwebel, DC, Seedat, S, Sepanlou, SG, Servan-Mori, EE, Shaikh, MA, Sharma, R, She, J, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shen, J, Shibuya, K, Shin, HH, Sigfusdottir, ID, Silpakit, N, Santos Silva, DA, Alves Silveira, DG, Simard, EP, Sindi, S, Singh, JA, Singh, OP, Singh, PK, Skirbekk, V, Sliwa, K, Soneji, S, Sorensen, RJD, Soriano, JB, Soti, DO, Sreeramareddy, CT, Stathopoulou, V, Steel, N, Sunguya, BF, Swaminathan, S, Sykes, BL, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Talongwa, RT, Tavakkoli, M, Taye, B, Tedla, BA, Tekle, T, Shifa, GT, Temesgen, AM, Terkawi, AS, Tesfay, FH, Tessema, GA, Thapa, K, Thomson, AJ, Thorne-Lyman, AL, Tobe-Gai, R, Topor-Madry, R, Towbin, JA, Bach, XT, Dimbuene, ZT, Tsilimparis, N, Tura, AK, Ukwaja, KN, Uneke, CJ, Uthman, OA, Venketasubramanian, N, Vladimirov, SK, Vlassov, VV, Vollset, SE, Wang, L, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, RG, Werdecker, A, Westerman, R, Wijeratne, T, Wilkinson, JD, Wiysonge, CS, Wolfe, CDA, Won, S, Wong, JQ, Xu, G, Yadav, AK, Yakob, B, Yalew, AZ, Yano, Y, Yaseri, M, Yebyo, HG, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, S-J, Younis, MZ, Yu, C, Yu, S, Zaidi, Z, Zaki, MES, Zeeb, H, Zhang, H, Zhao, Y, Zodpey, S, Zoeckler, L, Zuhlke, LJ, Lopez, AD, Murray, CJL, Wang, H, Wolock, TM, Carter, A, Nguyen, G, Kyu, HH, Gakidou, E, Hay, SI, Mills, EJ, Trickey, A, Msemburi, W, Coates, MM, Mooney, MD, Fraser, MS, Sligar, A, Salomon, J, Larson, HJ, Friedman, J, Abajobir, AA, Abate, KH, Abbas, KM, Abd El Razek, MM, Abd-Allah, F, Abdulle, AM, Abera, SF, Abubakar, I, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Abyu, GY, Adebiyi, AO, Adedeji, IA, Adelekan, AL, Adofo, K, Adou, AK, Ajala, ON, Akinyemiju, TF, Akseer, N, Al Lami, FH, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, NKM, Alasfoor, D, Aldhahri, SFS, Aldridge, RW, Alegretti, MA, Aleman, AV, Alemu, ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho, R, Ali, R, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Al-Raddadi, RMS, Alsharif, U, Alvarez, E, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Amberbir, A, Amegah, AK, Ammar, W, Amrock, SM, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Arnlov, J, Al, A, Asayesh, H, Asghar, RJ, Assadi, R, Atique, S, Atkins, LS, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Bacha, U, Badawi, A, Barac, A, Barnighausen, T, Basu, A, Bayou, TA, Bayou, YT, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Beardsley, J, Bedi, N, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Betsu, BD, Beyene, AS, Bhatia, E, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgilign, S, Bikbov, B, Birlik, SM, Bisanzio, D, Brainin, M, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, NJK, Brown, A, Burch, M, Butt, ZA, Campuzano, JC, Cardenas, R, Carrero, JJ, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Rivas, JC, Catala-Lopez, F, Chang, H-Y, Chang, J-C, Chavan, L, Chen, W, Chiang, PP-C, Chibalabala, M, Chisumpa, VH, Choi, J-YJ, Christopher, DJ, Ciobanu, LG, Cooper, C, Dahiru, T, Damtew, SA, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, das Neves, J, de Jager, P, De Leo, D, Degenhardt, L, Dellavalle, RP, Deribe, K, Deribew, A, Jarlais, DCD, Dharmaratne, SD, Ding, EL, Doshi, PP, Driscoll, TR, Dubey, M, Elshrek, YM, Elyazar, I, Endries, AY, Ermakov, SP, Eshrati, B, Esteghamati, A, Faghmous, IDA, Sofia e Sa Farinha, C, Faro, A, Farvid, MS, Farzadfar, F, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, JC, Fischer, F, Fitchett, JRA, Foigt, N, Fullman, N, Furst, T, Gankpe, FG, Gebre, T, Gebremedhin, AT, Gebru, AA, Geleijnse, JM, Gessner, BD, Gething, PW, Ghiwot, TT, Giroud, M, Gishu, MD, Glaser, E, Goenka, S, Goodridge, A, Gopalani, SV, Goto, A, Gugnani, HC, Guimaraes, MDC, Gupta, R, Gupta, V, Haagsma, J, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Hagan, H, Hailu, GB, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Hammami, M, Hankey, GJ, Hao, Y, Harb, HL, Harikrishnan, S, Haro, JM, Harun, KM, Havmoeller, R, Hedayati, MT, Heredia-Pi, IB, Hoek, HW, Horino, M, Horita, N, Hosgood, HD, Hoy, DG, Hsairi, M, Hu, G, Huang, H, Huang, JJ, Iburg, KM, Idrisov, BT, Innos, K, Iyer, VJ, Jacobsen, KH, Jahanmehr, N, Jakovljevic, MB, Javanbakht, M, Jayatilleke, AU, Jeemon, P, Jha, V, Jiang, G, Jiang, Y, Jibat, T, Jonas, JB, Kabir, Z, Kamal, R, Kan, H, Karch, A, Karema, CK, Karletsos, D, Kasaeian, A, Kaul, A, Kawakami, N, Kayibanda, JF, Keiyoro, PN, Kemp, AH, Kengne, AP, Kesavachandran, CN, Khader, YS, Khalil, I, Khan, AR, Khan, EA, Khang, Y-H, Khubchandani, J, Kim, YJ, Kinfu, Y, Kivipelto, M, Kokubo, Y, Kosen, S, Koul, PA, Koyanagi, A, Defo, BK, Bicer, BK, Kulkarni, VS, Kumar, GA, Lal, DK, Lam, H, Lam, JO, Langan, SM, Lansingh, VC, Larsson, A, Leigh, J, Leung, R, Li, Y, Lim, SS, Lipshultz, SE, Liu, S, Lloyd, BK, Logroscino, G, Lotufo, PA, Lunevicius, R, Abd El Razek, HM, Mahdavi, M, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Makhlouf, C, Malekzadeh, R, Mapoma, CC, Marcenes, W, Martinez-Raga, J, Marzan, MB, Masiye, F, Mason-Jones, AJ, Mayosi, BM, Mckee, M, Meaney, PA, Mehndiratta, MM, Mekonnen, AB, Melaku, YA, Memiah, P, Memish, ZA, Mendoza, W, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, TJ, Mhimbira, FA, Miller, TR, Mikesell, J, Mirarefin, M, Mohammad, KA, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Monasta, L, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Mori, R, Mueller, UO, Murimira, B, Murthy, GVS, Naheed, A, Naldi, L, Nangia, V, Nash, D, Nawaz, H, Nejjari, C, Ngalesoni, FN, Ngirabega, JDD, Quyen, LN, Nisar, MI, Norheim, OF, Norman, RE, Nyakarahuka, L, Ogbo, FA, Oh, I-H, Ojelabi, FA, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Opio, JN, Oren, E, Ota, E, Padukudru, MA, Park, H-Y, Park, J-H, Patil, ST, Patten, SB, Paul, VK, Pearson, K, Peprah, EK, Pereira, DM, Perico, N, Pesudovs, K, Petzold, M, Phillips, MR, Pillay, JD, Plass, D, Polinder, S, Pourmalek, F, Prokop, DM, Qorbani, M, Rafay, A, Rahimi, K, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Rahman, MHU, Rahman, SU, Rai, RK, Rajsic, S, Ram, U, Rana, SM, Rao, PV, Remuzzi, G, Rojas-Rueda, D, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Roy, A, Ruhago, GM, Saeedi, MY, Sagar, R, Saleh, MM, Sanabria, JR, Santos, IS, Sarmiento-Suarez, R, Sartorius, B, Sawhney, M, Schutte, AE, Schwebel, DC, Seedat, S, Sepanlou, SG, Servan-Mori, EE, Shaikh, MA, Sharma, R, She, J, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shen, J, Shibuya, K, Shin, HH, Sigfusdottir, ID, Silpakit, N, Santos Silva, DA, Alves Silveira, DG, Simard, EP, Sindi, S, Singh, JA, Singh, OP, Singh, PK, Skirbekk, V, Sliwa, K, Soneji, S, Sorensen, RJD, Soriano, JB, Soti, DO, Sreeramareddy, CT, Stathopoulou, V, Steel, N, Sunguya, BF, Swaminathan, S, Sykes, BL, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Talongwa, RT, Tavakkoli, M, Taye, B, Tedla, BA, Tekle, T, Shifa, GT, Temesgen, AM, Terkawi, AS, Tesfay, FH, Tessema, GA, Thapa, K, Thomson, AJ, Thorne-Lyman, AL, Tobe-Gai, R, Topor-Madry, R, Towbin, JA, Bach, XT, Dimbuene, ZT, Tsilimparis, N, Tura, AK, Ukwaja, KN, Uneke, CJ, Uthman, OA, Venketasubramanian, N, Vladimirov, SK, Vlassov, VV, Vollset, SE, Wang, L, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, RG, Werdecker, A, Westerman, R, Wijeratne, T, Wilkinson, JD, Wiysonge, CS, Wolfe, CDA, Won, S, Wong, JQ, Xu, G, Yadav, AK, Yakob, B, Yalew, AZ, Yano, Y, Yaseri, M, Yebyo, HG, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, S-J, Younis, MZ, Yu, C, Yu, S, Zaidi, Z, Zaki, MES, Zeeb, H, Zhang, H, Zhao, Y, Zodpey, S, Zoeckler, L, Zuhlke, LJ, Lopez, AD, and Murray, CJL

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 mi

Published
2016

5. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Author

Murray, CJL, Barber, RM, Foreman, KJ, Ozgoren, AA, Abd-Allah, F, Abera, SF, Aboyans, V, Abraham, JP, Abubakar, I, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NM, Achoki, T, Ackerman, IN, Ademi, Z, Adou, AK, Adsuar, JC, Afshin, A, Agardh, EE, Alam, SS, Alasfoor, D, Albittar, MI, Alegretti, MA, Alemu, ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho, R, Alhabib, S, Ali, R, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Almazroa, MA, Alsharif, U, Alvarez, E, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Ameh, EA, Amini, H, Ammar, W, Anderson, HR, Anderson, BO, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Arnlöv, J, Arsenijevic, VSA, Artaman, A, Asghar, RJ, Assadi, R, Atkins, LS, Avila, MA, Awuah, B, Bachman, VF, Badawi, A, Bahit, MC, Balakrishnan, K, Banerjee, A, Barker-Collo, SL, Barquera, S, Barregard, L, Barrero, LH, Basu, A, Basu, S, Basulaiman, MO, Beardsley, J, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Bekele, T, Bell, ML, Benjet, C, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Benzian, H, Bernabé, E, Bertozzi-Villa, A, Beyene, TJ, Bhala, N, Bhalla, A, Bhutta, ZA, Bienhoff, K, Bikbov, B, Biryukov, S, Blore, JD, Blosser, CD, Blyth, FM, Bohensky, MA, Bolliger, IW, Başara, BB, Bornstein, NM, Bose, D, Boufous, S, Bourne, RRA, Boyers, LN, Brainin, M, Brayne, CE, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, NJK, Brenner, H, Briggs, AD, Brooks, PM, Brown, JC, Brugha, TS, Buchbinder, R, Buckle, GC, Murray, CJL, Barber, RM, Foreman, KJ, Ozgoren, AA, Abd-Allah, F, Abera, SF, Aboyans, V, Abraham, JP, Abubakar, I, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NM, Achoki, T, Ackerman, IN, Ademi, Z, Adou, AK, Adsuar, JC, Afshin, A, Agardh, EE, Alam, SS, Alasfoor, D, Albittar, MI, Alegretti, MA, Alemu, ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho, R, Alhabib, S, Ali, R, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Almazroa, MA, Alsharif, U, Alvarez, E, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Ameh, EA, Amini, H, Ammar, W, Anderson, HR, Anderson, BO, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Arnlöv, J, Arsenijevic, VSA, Artaman, A, Asghar, RJ, Assadi, R, Atkins, LS, Avila, MA, Awuah, B, Bachman, VF, Badawi, A, Bahit, MC, Balakrishnan, K, Banerjee, A, Barker-Collo, SL, Barquera, S, Barregard, L, Barrero, LH, Basu, A, Basu, S, Basulaiman, MO, Beardsley, J, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Bekele, T, Bell, ML, Benjet, C, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Benzian, H, Bernabé, E, Bertozzi-Villa, A, Beyene, TJ, Bhala, N, Bhalla, A, Bhutta, ZA, Bienhoff, K, Bikbov, B, Biryukov, S, Blore, JD, Blosser, CD, Blyth, FM, Bohensky, MA, Bolliger, IW, Başara, BB, Bornstein, NM, Bose, D, Boufous, S, Bourne, RRA, Boyers, LN, Brainin, M, Brayne, CE, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, NJK, Brenner, H, Briggs, AD, Brooks, PM, Brown, JC, Brugha, TS, Buchbinder, R, and Buckle, GC

Abstract

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3

Published
2015

6. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Naghavi, M, Wang, H, Lozano, R, Davis, A, Liang, X, Zhou, M, Vollset, SE, Abbasoglu Ozgoren, A, Abdalla, S, Abd-Allah, F, Abdel Aziz, MI, Abera, SF, Aboyans, V, Abraham, B, Abraham, JP, Abuabara, KE, Abubakar, I, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Achoki, T, Adelekan, A, Ademi, Z, Adofo, K, Adou, AK, Adsuar, JC, Ärnlov, J, Agardh, EE, Akena, D, Al Khabouri, MJ, Alasfoor, D, Albittar, M, Alegretti, MA, Aleman, AV, Alemu, ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho, R, Alhabib, S, Ali, MK, Ali, R, Alla, F, Al Lami, F, Allebeck, P, AlMazroa, MA, Al-Shahi Salman, R, Alsharif, U, Alvarez, E, Alviz-Guzman, N, Amankwaa, AA, Amare, AT, Ameli, O, Amini, H, Ammar, W, Anderson, HR, Anderson, BO, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Apfel, H, Argeseanu Cunningham, S, Arsic Arsenijevic, VS, Artaman, A, Asad, MM, Asghar, RJ, Assadi, R, Atkins, LS, Atkinson, C, Badawi, A, Bahit, MC, Bakfalouni, T, Balakrishnan, K, Balalla, S, Banerjee, A, Barber, RM, Barker-Collo, SL, Barquera, S, Barregard, L, Barrero, LH, Barrientos-Gutierrez, T, Basu, A, Basu, S, Basulaiman, MO, Beardsley, J, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Bekele, T, Bell, ML, Benjet, C, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Benzian, H, Bertozzi-Villa, A, Beyene, TJ, Bhala, N, Bhalla, A, Bhutta, ZA, Bikbov, B, Bin Abdulhak, A, Biryukov, S, Blore, JD, Blyth, FM, Bohensky, MA, Borges, G, Naghavi, M, Wang, H, Lozano, R, Davis, A, Liang, X, Zhou, M, Vollset, SE, Abbasoglu Ozgoren, A, Abdalla, S, Abd-Allah, F, Abdel Aziz, MI, Abera, SF, Aboyans, V, Abraham, B, Abraham, JP, Abuabara, KE, Abubakar, I, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Achoki, T, Adelekan, A, Ademi, Z, Adofo, K, Adou, AK, Adsuar, JC, Ärnlov, J, Agardh, EE, Akena, D, Al Khabouri, MJ, Alasfoor, D, Albittar, M, Alegretti, MA, Aleman, AV, Alemu, ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho, R, Alhabib, S, Ali, MK, Ali, R, Alla, F, Al Lami, F, Allebeck, P, AlMazroa, MA, Al-Shahi Salman, R, Alsharif, U, Alvarez, E, Alviz-Guzman, N, Amankwaa, AA, Amare, AT, Ameli, O, Amini, H, Ammar, W, Anderson, HR, Anderson, BO, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Apfel, H, Argeseanu Cunningham, S, Arsic Arsenijevic, VS, Artaman, A, Asad, MM, Asghar, RJ, Assadi, R, Atkins, LS, Atkinson, C, Badawi, A, Bahit, MC, Bakfalouni, T, Balakrishnan, K, Balalla, S, Banerjee, A, Barber, RM, Barker-Collo, SL, Barquera, S, Barregard, L, Barrero, LH, Barrientos-Gutierrez, T, Basu, A, Basu, S, Basulaiman, MO, Beardsley, J, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Bekele, T, Bell, ML, Benjet, C, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Benzian, H, Bertozzi-Villa, A, Beyene, TJ, Bhala, N, Bhalla, A, Bhutta, ZA, Bikbov, B, Bin Abdulhak, A, Biryukov, S, Blore, JD, Blyth, FM, Bohensky, MA, and Borges, G

Abstract

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-y

Published
2015

7. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Author

Forouzanfar MH, Alexander L, Anderson HR, Bachman VF, Biryukov S, Brauer M, Burnett R, Casey D, Coates MM, Cohen A, Delwiche K, Estep K, Frostad JJ, Astha KC, Kyu HH, Moradi-Lakeh M, Ng M, Slepak EL, Thomas BA, Wagner J, Aasvang GM, Abbafati C, Abbasoglu Ozgoren A, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abraham B, Abraham JP, Abubakar I, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Aburto TC, Achoki T, Adelekan A, Adofo K, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Al Khabouri MJ, Al Lami FH, Alam SS, Alasfoor D, Albittar MI, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Alhabib S, Ali R, Ali MK, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen PJ, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzman N, Amankwaa AA, Amare AT, Ameh EA, Ameli O, Amini H, Ammar W, Anderson BO, Antonio CA, Anwari P, Argeseanu Cunningham S, Arnlöv J, Arsenijevic VS, Artaman A, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atkins LS, Atkinson C, Avila MA, Awuah B, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Bakfalouni T, Balakrishnan K, Balalla S, Balu RK, Banerjee A, Barber RM, Barker-Collo SL, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Barrientos-Gutierrez T, Basto-Abreu AC, Basu A, Basu S, Basulaiman MO, Batis Ruvalcaba C, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Bekele T, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Benzian H, Bernabé E, Beyene TJ, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Bin Abdulhak AA, Blore JD, Blyth FM, Bohensky MA, Bora Başara B, Borges G, Bornstein NM, Bose D, Boufous S, Bourne RR, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJ, Brenner H, Briggs AD, Broday DM, Brooks PM, Bruce NG, Brugha TS, Brunekreef B, Buchbinder R, Bui LN, Bukhman G, Bulloch AG, Burch M, Burney PG, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Cantoral AJ, Caravanos J, Cárdenas R, Cardis E, Carpenter DO, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Çavlin A, Chadha VK, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chen H, Chen W, Chen Z, Chiang PP, Chimed-Ochir O, Chowdhury R, Christophi CA, Chuang TW, Chugh SS, Cirillo M, Claßen TK, Colistro V, Colomar M, Colquhoun SM, Contreras AG, Cooper C, Cooperrider K, Cooper LT, Coresh J, Courville KJ, Criqui MH, Cuevas-Nasu L, Damsere-Derry J, Danawi H, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, Davis A, Davitoiu DV, Dayama A, de Castro EF, De la Cruz-Góngora V, De Leo D, de Lima G, Degenhardt L, del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Derrett S, Des Jarlais DC, Dessalegn M, deVeber GA, Devries KM, Dharmaratne SD, Dherani MK, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dokova K, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Durrani AM, Ebel BE, Ellenbogen RG, Elshrek YM, Endres M, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Fahimi S, Faraon EJ, Farzadfar F, Fay DF, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fereshtehnejad SM, Ferrari AJ, Ferri CP, Flaxman AD, Fleming TD, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Paleo UF, Franklin RC, Gabbe B, Gaffikin L, Gakidou E, Gamkrelidze A, Gankpé FG, Gansevoort RT, García-Guerra FA, Gasana E, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gething P, Gibney KB, Gillum RF, Ginawi IA, Giroud M, Giussani G, Goenka S, Goginashvili K, Gomez Dantes H, Gona P, Gonzalez de Cosio T, González-Castell D, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Guerrant RL, Gugnani HC, Guillemin F, Gunnell D, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagan H, Hagstromer M, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Haregu TN, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, Hedayati MT, Heredia-Pi IB, Hernandez L, Heuton KR, Heydarpour P, Hijar M, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Hornberger JC, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu G, Hu H, Huang C, Huang JJ, Hubbell BJ, Huiart L, Husseini A, Iannarone ML, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Ikeda N, Innos K, Inoue M, Islami F, Ismayilova S, Jacobsen KH, Jansen HA, Jarvis DL, Jassal SK, Jauregui A, Jayaraman S, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang F, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kan H, Kany Roseline SS, Karam NE, Karch A, Karema CK, Karthikeyan G, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Khader YS, Khalifa SE, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khatibzadeh S, Khonelidze I, Kieling C, Kim D, Kim S, Kim Y, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kinge JM, Kissela BM, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kose MR, Kosen S, Kraemer A, Kravchenko M, Krishnaswami S, Kromhout H, Ku T, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni C, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lai T, Lakshmana Balaji A, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larson HJ, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Lavados PM, Lawrynowicz AE, Leasher JL, Lee JT, Leigh J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Li Y, Liang J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lindsay MP, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, London SJ, Lopez N, Lortet-Tieulent J, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Ma J, Ma S, Machado VM, MacIntyre MF, Magis-Rodriguez C, Mahdi AA, Majdan M, Malekzadeh R, Mangalam S, Mapoma CC, Marape M, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Margono C, Marks GB, Martin RV, Marzan MB, Mashal MT, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Matsushita K, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, Mazorodze TT, McKay AC, McKee M, McLain A, Meaney PA, Medina C, Mehndiratta MM, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen W, Melaku YA, Meltzer M, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Misganaw A, Mishra S, Mohamed Ibrahim N, Mohammad KA, Mokdad AH, Mola GL, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Montico M, Moore AR, Morawska L, Mori R, Moschandreas J, Moturi WN, Mozaffarian D, Mueller UO, Mukaigawara M, Mullany EC, Murthy KS, Naghavi M, Nahas Z, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nand D, Nangia V, Narayan KM, Nash D, Neal B, Nejjari C, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ngalesoni FN, Ngirabega Jde D, Nguyen G, Nguyen NT, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Nisar MI, Nogueira JR, Nolla JM, Nolte S, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Olusanya BO, Omer SB, Opio JN, Orozco R, Pagcatipunan RS Jr, Pain AW, Pandian JD, Panelo CI, Papachristou C, Park EK, Parry CD, Paternina Caicedo AJ, Patten SB, Paul VK, Pavlin BI, Pearce N, Pedraza LS, Pedroza A, Pejin Stokic L, Pekericli A, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Perry SA, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Peterson CB, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Phua HP, Plass D, Poenaru D, Polanczyk GV, Polinder S, Pond CD, Pope CA, Pope D, Popova S, Pourmalek F, Powles J, Prabhakaran D, Prasad NM, Qato DM, Quezada AD, Quistberg DA, Racapé L, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman SU, Raju M, Rakovac I, Rana SM, Rao M, Razavi H, Reddy KS, Refaat AH, Rehm J, Remuzzi G, Ribeiro AL, Riccio PM, Richardson L, Riederer A, Robinson M, Roca A, Rodriguez A, Rojas-Rueda D, Romieu I, Ronfani L, Room R, Roy N, Ruhago GM, Rushton L, Sabin N, Sacco RL, Saha S, Sahathevan R, Sahraian MA, Salomon JA, Salvo D, Sampson UK, Sanabria JR, Sanchez LM, Sánchez-Pimienta TG, Sanchez-Riera L, Sandar L, Santos IS, Sapkota A, Satpathy M, Saunders JE, Sawhney M, Saylan MI, Scarborough P, Schmidt JC, Schneider IJ, Schöttker B, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Serdar B, Servan-Mori EE, Shaddick G, Shahraz S, Levy TS, Shangguan S, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shibuya K, Shin HH, Shinohara Y, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh GM, Singh JA, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soljak M, Soneji S, Søreide K, Soshnikov S, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stapelberg NJ, Stathopoulou V, Steckling N, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Stephens N, Stöckl H, Straif K, Stroumpoulis K, Sturua L, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Swaroop M, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Takahashi K, Talongwa RT, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tanner M, Tavakkoli M, Te Ao BJ, Teixeira CM, Téllez Rojo MM, Terkawi AS, Texcalac-Sangrador JL, Thackway SV, Thomson B, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tobollik M, Tonelli M, Topouzis F, Towbin JA, Toyoshima H, Traebert J, Tran BX, Trasande L, Trillini M, Trujillo U, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimbaris M, Tuzcu EM, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Uzun SB, van de Vijver S, Van Dingenen R, van Gool CH, van Os J, Varakin YY, Vasankari TJ, Vasconcelos AM, Vavilala MS, Veerman LJ, Velasquez-Melendez G, Venketasubramanian N, Vijayakumar L, Villalpando S, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Waller SG, Wallin MT, Wan X, Wang H, Wang J, Wang L, Wang W, Wang Y, Warouw TS, Watts CH, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Wessells KR, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Williams TN, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CD, Wong JQ, Woolf AD, Wright JL, Wurtz B, Xu G, Yan LL, Yang G, Yano Y, Ye P, Yenesew M, Yentür GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Younoussi Z, Yu C, Zaki ME, Zhao Y, Zheng Y, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zhu S, Zou X, Zunt JR, Lopez AD, Vos T, and Murray CJ

Subjects
Female, Global Health statistics & numerical data, Health Behavior, Humans, Male, Nutritional Status, Occupational Exposure adverse effects, Risk Assessment methods, Risk Factors, Sanitation trends, Environmental Exposure adverse effects, Global Health trends, Metabolic Diseases epidemiology, Occupational Diseases epidemiology
Abstract

Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution., Methods: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol., Findings: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa., Interpretation: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Published
2015
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8. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition.

Author

Murray CJ, Barber RM, Foreman KJ, Abbasoglu Ozgoren A, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abraham JP, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Achoki T, Ackerman IN, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Alam SS, Alasfoor D, Albittar MI, Alegretti MA, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alla F, Allebeck P, Almazroa MA, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Ameh EA, Amini H, Ammar W, Anderson HR, Anderson BO, Antonio CA, Anwari P, Arnlöv J, Arsic Arsenijevic VS, Artaman A, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atkins LS, Avila MA, Awuah B, Bachman VF, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barker-Collo SL, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu A, Basu S, Basulaiman MO, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bekele T, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Bernabé E, Bertozzi-Villa A, Beyene TJ, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhutta ZA, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Biryukov S, Blore JD, Blosser CD, Blyth FM, Bohensky MA, Bolliger IW, Bora Başara B, Bornstein NM, Bose D, Boufous S, Bourne RR, Boyers LN, Brainin M, Brayne CE, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJ, Brenner H, Briggs AD, Brooks PM, Brown JC, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Buckle GC, Budke CM, Bulchis A, Bulloch AG, Campos-Nonato IR, Carabin H, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Çavlin A, Chadha VK, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chen H, Chen W, Chiang PP, Chimed-Ochir O, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christophi CA, Cirillo M, Coates MM, Coffeng LE, Coggeshall MS, Colistro V, Colquhoun SM, Cooke GS, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Coppola LM, Cortinovis M, Criqui MH, Crump JA, Cuevas-Nasu L, Danawi H, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dansereau E, Dargan PI, Davey G, Davis A, Davitoiu DV, Dayama A, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Derrett S, Des Jarlais DC, Dessalegn M, Dharmaratne SD, Dherani MK, Diaz-Torné C, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dokova K, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Duber HC, Ebel BE, Edmond KM, Elshrek YM, Endres M, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faraon EJ, Farzadfar F, Fay DF, Feigin VL, Felson DT, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Fleming TD, Foigt N, Forouzanfar MH, Fowkes FG, Paleo UF, Franklin RC, Fürst T, Gabbe B, Gaffikin L, Gankpé FG, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gething P, Gibney KB, Giroud M, Giussani G, Gomez Dantes H, Gona P, González-Medina D, Gosselin RA, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Graetz N, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gutiérrez RA, Haagsma J, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagan H, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamavid H, Hammami M, Hancock J, Hankey GJ, Hansen GM, Hao Y, Harb HL, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, Hay RJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Heuton KR, Heydarpour P, Higashi H, Hijar M, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Hosgood HD, Hossain M, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu G, Huang C, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Huynh C, Iannarone ML, Iburg KM, Innos K, Inoue M, Islami F, Jacobsen KH, Jarvis DL, Jassal SK, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Karthikeyan G, Kassebaum NJ, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazanjan K, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Khader YS, Khalifa SE, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Kieling C, Kim D, Kim S, Kim Y, Kinfu Y, Kinge JM, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Krishnaswami S, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni C, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kyu HH, Lai T, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lawrynowicz AE, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung R, Levitz CE, Li B, Li Y, Li Y, Lim SS, Lind M, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lofgren KT, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lortet-Tieulent J, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Macintyre MF, Mackay MT, Majdan M, Malekzadeh R, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Margono C, Marzan MB, Masci JR, Mashal MT, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, Mazorodze TT, Mcgill NW, Mcgrath JJ, Mckee M, Mclain A, Meaney PA, Medina C, Mehndiratta MM, Mekonnen W, Melaku YA, Meltzer M, Memish ZA, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohamed Ibrahim N, Mohammad KA, Mokdad AH, Mola GL, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Montico M, Montine TJ, Mooney MD, Moore AR, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moran AE, Mori R, Moschandreas J, Moturi WN, Moyer ML, Mozaffarian D, Msemburi WT, Mueller UO, Mukaigawara M, Mullany EC, Murdoch ME, Murray J, Murthy KS, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nand D, Nangia V, Narayan KM, Nejjari C, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen G, Nisar MI, Nolte S, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Ohno SL, Olusanya BO, Opio JN, Ortblad K, Ortiz A, Pain AW, Pandian JD, Panelo CI, Papachristou C, Park EK, Park JH, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paul VK, Pavlin BI, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Peterson CB, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Phillips BK, Phillips DE, Piel FB, Plass D, Poenaru D, Polinder S, Pope D, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Prasad NM, Pullan RL, Qato DM, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahman SU, Raju M, Rana SM, Razavi H, Reddy KS, Refaat A, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Richardson L, Richardus JH, Roberts DA, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Rothstein DH, Rowley JT, Roy N, Ruhago GM, Saeedi MY, Saha S, Sahraian MA, Sampson UK, Sanabria JR, Sandar L, Santos IS, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Scarborough P, Schneider IJ, Schöttker B, Schumacher AE, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Serina PT, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shamah Levy T, Shangguan S, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shinohara Y, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh L, Skirbekk V, Slepak EL, Sliwa K, Soneji S, Søreide K, Soshnikov S, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stanaway JD, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Steiner C, Steiner TJ, Stevens A, Stewart A, Stovner LJ, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Swaroop M, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Takahashi K, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tanner M, Tavakkoli M, Taylor HR, Te Ao BJ, Tediosi F, Temesgen AM, Templin T, Ten Have M, Tenkorang EY, Terkawi AS, Thomson B, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tonelli M, Topouzis F, Toyoshima H, Traebert J, Tran BX, Trillini M, Truelsen T, Tsilimbaris M, Tuzcu EM, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uzun SB, Van Brakel WH, Van De Vijver S, van Gool CH, Van Os J, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Wagner J, Waller SG, Wan X, Wang H, Wang J, Wang L, Warouw TS, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Wenzhi W, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Williams TN, Wolfe CD, Wolock TM, Woolf AD, Wulf S, Wurtz B, Xu G, Yan LL, Yano Y, Ye P, Yentür GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaki ME, Zhao Y, Zheng Y, Zonies D, Zou X, Salomon JA, Lopez AD, and Vos T

Subjects
Aged, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Premature, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Socioeconomic Factors, Chronic Disease epidemiology, Communicable Diseases epidemiology, Global Health statistics & numerical data, Health Transition, Life Expectancy, Wounds and Injuries epidemiology
Abstract

Background: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development., Methods: We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time., Findings: Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries., Interpretation: Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Published
2015
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9. Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Author

Kassebaum NJ, Bertozzi-Villa A, Coggeshall MS, Shackelford KA, Steiner C, Heuton KR, Gonzalez-Medina D, Barber R, Huynh C, Dicker D, Templin T, Wolock TM, Ozgoren AA, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abubakar I, Achoki T, Adelekan A, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Agardh EE, Akena D, Alasfoor D, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Alhabib S, Ali R, Al Kahbouri MJ, Alla F, Allen PJ, AlMazroa MA, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzmán N, Amankwaa AA, Amare AT, Amini H, Ammar W, Antonio CA, Anwari P, Arnlöv J, Arsenijevic VS, Artaman A, Asad MM, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atkins LS, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Basu A, Basu S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Bekele T, Bell ML, Bernabe E, Beyene TJ, Bhutta Z, Bin Abdulhak A, Blore JD, Basara BB, Bose D, Breitborde N, Cárdenas R, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Cavlin A, Chang JC, Che X, Christophi CA, Chugh SS, Cirillo M, Colquhoun SM, Cooper LT, Cooper C, da Costa Leite I, Dandona L, Dandona R, Davis A, Dayama A, Degenhardt L, De Leo D, del Pozo-Cruz B, Deribe K, Dessalegn M, deVeber GA, Dharmaratne SD, Dilmen U, Ding EL, Dorrington RE, Driscoll TR, Ermakov SP, Esteghamati A, Faraon EJ, Farzadfar F, Felicio MM, Fereshtehnejad SM, de Lima GM, Forouzanfar MH, França EB, Gaffikin L, Gambashidze K, Gankpé FG, Garcia AC, Geleijnse JM, Gibney KB, Giroud M, Glaser EL, Goginashvili K, Gona P, González-Castell D, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hamadeh RR, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, Pi IB, Hoek HW, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Husseini A, Idrisov BT, Innos K, Inoue M, Jacobsen KH, Jahangir E, Jee SH, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kabagambe EK, Kan H, Karam NE, Karch A, Karema CK, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazanjan K, Kazi DS, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Kereselidze M, Khader YS, Khalifa SE, Khan EA, Khang YH, Knibbs L, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Defo BK, Kulkarni C, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kumar K, Kumar RB, Kwan G, Lai T, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lee JT, Leigh J, Leinsalu M, Leung R, Li X, Li Y, Li Y, Liang J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lin HH, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, London SJ, Lotufo PA, Ma J, Ma S, Machado VM, Mainoo NK, Majdan M, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Marzan MB, Mason-Jones AJ, Mehndiratta MM, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mokdad AH, Mola GL, Monasta L, de la Cruz Monis J, Hernandez JC, Moore AR, Moradi-Lakeh M, Mori R, Mueller UO, Mukaigawara M, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Nand D, Nangia V, Nash D, Nejjari C, Nelson RG, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ng M, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Nisar MI, Nolte S, Norheim OF, Nyakarahuka L, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Olusanya BO, Omer SB, Opio JN, Orisakwe OE, Pandian JD, Papachristou C, Park JH, Caicedo AJ, Patten SB, Paul VK, Pavlin BI, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Poenaru D, Polanczyk GV, Polinder S, Pope D, Pourmalek F, Qato D, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, ur Rahman S, Raju M, Rana SM, Refaat A, Ronfani L, Roy N, Pimienta TG, Sahraian MA, Salomon JA, Sampson U, Santos IS, Sawhney M, Sayinzoga F, Schneider IJ, Schumacher A, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shakh-Nazarova M, Sheikhbahaei S, Shibuya K, Shin HH, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silva AP, Singh JA, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soshnikov SS, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stroumpoulis K, Sturua L, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Talongwa RT, Tan F, Teixeira CM, Tenkorang EY, Terkawi AS, Thorne-Lyman AL, Tirschwell DL, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Tsilimbaris M, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uzun SB, Vallely AJ, van Gool CH, Vasankari TJ, Vavilala MS, Venketasubramanian N, Villalpando S, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vos T, Waller S, Wang H, Wang L, Wang X, Wang Y, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Westerman R, Wilkinson JD, Woldeyohannes SM, Wong JQ, Wordofa MA, Xu G, Yang YC, Yano Y, Yentur GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Jin KY, El Sayed Zaki M, Zhao Y, Zheng Y, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zou XN, Lopez AD, Naghavi M, Murray CJ, and Lozano R

Subjects
Age Distribution, Cause of Death trends, Female, Global Health statistics & numerical data, HIV Infections mortality, Humans, Models, Statistical, Organizational Objectives, Pregnancy, Pregnancy Complications, Infectious mortality, Risk Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Time Factors, Global Health trends, Maternal Mortality trends
Abstract

Background: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery., Methods: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values., Findings: 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland., Interpretation: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Published
2014
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10. Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Author

Murray CJ, Ortblad KF, Guinovart C, Lim SS, Wolock TM, Roberts DA, Dansereau EA, Graetz N, Barber RM, Brown JC, Wang H, Duber HC, Naghavi M, Dicker D, Dandona L, Salomon JA, Heuton KR, Foreman K, Phillips DE, Fleming TD, Flaxman AD, Phillips BK, Johnson EK, Coggeshall MS, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abraham JP, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Achoki T, Adeyemo AO, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Agardh EE, Akena D, Al Kahbouri MJ, Alasfoor D, Albittar MI, Alcalá-Cerra G, Alegretti MA, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alla F, Allen PJ, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzman N, Amankwaa AA, Amare AT, Amini H, Ammar W, Anderson BO, Antonio CA, Anwari P, Arnlöv J, Arsenijevic VS, Artaman A, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atkins LS, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Basu S, Beardsley J, Bekele T, Bell ML, Bernabe E, Beyene TJ, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhutta ZA, Abdulhak AB, Binagwaho A, Blore JD, Basara BB, Bose D, Brainin M, Breitborde N, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Chadha VK, Chang JC, Chiang PP, Chuang TW, Colomar M, Cooper LT, Cooper C, Courville KJ, Cowie BC, Criqui MH, Dandona R, Dayama A, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Pozo-Cruz B, Deribe K, Des Jarlais DC, Dessalegn M, Dharmaratne SD, Dilmen U, Ding EL, Driscoll TR, Durrani AM, Ellenbogen RG, Ermakov SP, Esteghamati A, Faraon EJ, Farzadfar F, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fijabi DO, Forouzanfar MH, Fra Paleo U, Gaffikin L, Gamkrelidze A, Gankpé FG, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gibney KB, Ginawi IA, Glaser EL, Gona P, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hamadeh RR, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, Hedayati MT, Pi IB, Hoek HW, Hornberger JC, Hosgood HD, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Huang JJ, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Innos K, Jacobsen KH, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kan H, Kankindi I, Karam NE, Karch A, Karema CK, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Khader YS, Khalifa SE, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khonelidze I, Kinfu Y, Kinge JM, Knibbs L, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Defo BK, Kulkarni VS, Kulkarni C, Kumar K, Kumar RB, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lai T, Balaji AL, Lam H, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larson HJ, Larsson A, Lee JT, Leigh J, Leinsalu M, Leung R, Li Y, Li Y, De Lima GM, Lin HH, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lotufo PA, Machado VM, Maclachlan JH, Magis-Rodriguez C, Majdan M, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Marzan MB, Masci JR, Mashal MT, Mason-Jones AJ, Mayosi BM, Mazorodze TT, Mckay AC, Meaney PA, Mehndiratta MM, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Melaku YA, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mohammad KA, Mokdad AH, Mola GL, Monasta L, Montico M, Moore AR, Mori R, Moturi WN, Mukaigawara M, Murthy KS, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nangia V, Narayan KM, Nash D, Nejjari C, Nelson RG, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ng M, Nisar MI, Nolte S, Norheim OF, Nowaseb V, Nyakarahuka L, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Olusanya BO, Omer SB, Opio JN, Orisakwe OE, Pandian JD, Papachristou C, Caicedo AJ, Patten SB, Paul VK, Pavlin BI, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Pourmalek F, Qato D, Quezada AD, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Ur Rahman S, Raju M, Rana SM, Razavi H, Reilly RQ, Remuzzi G, Richardus JH, Ronfani L, Roy N, Sabin N, Saeedi MY, Sahraian MA, Samonte GM, Sawhney M, Schneider IJ, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Sheikhbahaei S, Shibuya K, Shin HH, Shiue I, Shivakoti R, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silva AP, Simard EP, Singh JA, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soneji S, Soshnikov SS, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou VK, Stroumpoulis K, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Talongwa RT, Tenkorang EY, Terkawi AS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Towbin JA, Traebert J, Tran BX, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimbaris M, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Uzun SB, Vallely AJ, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Waller S, Wallin MT, Wang L, Wang X, Wang Y, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Westerman R, White RA, Wilkinson JD, Williams TN, Woldeyohannes SM, Wong JQ, Xu G, Yang YC, Yano Y, Yentur GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis M, Yu C, Jin KY, El Sayed Zaki M, Zhao Y, Zheng Y, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zou XN, Lopez AD, and Vos T

Subjects
Age Distribution, Epidemics statistics & numerical data, Female, Humans, Incidence, Male, Mortality trends, Organizational Objectives, Sex Distribution, Global Health trends, HIV Infections epidemiology, Malaria epidemiology, Tuberculosis epidemiology
Abstract

Background: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration., Methods: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets., Findings: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990., Interpretation: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Published
2014
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