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The US dollar is on the rise due to Donald Trump's tariff threats, with currency strategists predicting further strengthening. Wall Street analysts anticipate a stronger dollar following Trump's reelection and potential policy changes. The euro and other currencies have weakened, with forecasts suggesting the dollar may continue to gain strength in the coming years. Emerging-market currencies have also been impacted by the dollar's rise, with traders betting on further gains in the US currency. [Extracted from the article]

The US dollar has surged to a two-year high following Donald Trump's reelection, causing other currencies to weaken. Wall Street analysts predict further gains for the dollar due to Trump's policies and the Republican-controlled Congress. The euro, yen, and Canadian dollar have all depreciated against the greenback, with forecasts suggesting the euro may reach parity with the dollar next year. Hedge funds and traders are increasingly bullish on the dollar, anticipating continued strength in the currency. [Extracted from the article]

The US dollar has been rallying since Donald Trump's presidential victory, causing other currencies to weaken and leading Wall Street strategists to predict further gains. Analysts anticipate substantial dollar strength in the coming years due to Trump's policies, with major financial institutions like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup all expecting the greenback to continue climbing. The euro, yen, and Canadian dollar have all been sliding against the US dollar, with many experts forecasting a sustained dollar rally and potential parity between the euro and the dollar in the near future. [Extracted from the article]

Investors are showing renewed confidence in the pound, with banks predicting further gains for the UK currency due to a hawkish central bank tone and political turmoil in the US and Germany. The pound is on track to end its longest losing streak against the dollar in six years and is expected to have its best week against the euro in 2024. Despite recent fluctuations, the pound is seen as a safe haven amidst global uncertainties, with some analysts forecasting a rise in its value in the coming months. [Extracted from the article]

Currency traders are increasingly bearish on the euro following Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential race, with the euro falling to $1.07 against the dollar. Analysts predict further declines, with some forecasting the euro to reach parity with the dollar. The differing trajectories of interest rates in Europe and the US are contributing to the euro's decline, with Trump's policies potentially exacerbating the situation for Europe's economy. Some strategists anticipate the euro to hit parity with the dollar in the coming months, while others suggest this may occur later in 2025. [Extracted from the article]

Currency traders are increasingly bearish on the euro following Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential race, with predictions of the euro reaching parity with the dollar in the near future. The divergence in interest rate trajectories between Europe and the US is a key factor driving this trend, as Trump's policies are expected to fuel inflation and limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates. While the possibility of euro-dollar parity is looming, some experts suggest that it may not happen immediately, with potential delays until later in 2025 due to protectionist measures. [Extracted from the article]

Treasuries experienced a decline in response to a strong services report and increased volatility surrounding the US election. Yields rose significantly, with two-year and 10-year rates reaching multi-month highs. Market experts anticipate continued volatility post-election, with potential swings in bond yields depending on the election outcome. The US presidential race is closely contested, with polls showing a split between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, setting the stage for market turbulence. Currency markets also experienced increased volatility as investors re-evaluated their positions leading up to the election. [Extracted from the article]

On Election Day, US Treasuries experienced a decline while bond volatility reached a one-year high, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.32%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index decreased by 0.2%, and currency volatility increased, particularly in hedging the euro against the dollar. The presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is evenly split, leading to market uncertainty and potential volatility depending on the election outcome. [Extracted from the article]

The article from Bloomberg.com discusses the impact of the US presidential election on financial markets, with Treasuries and the dollar falling as the election remains too close to call. Traders are anticipating significant market swings depending on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins, with the outcome likely to have a binary impact on currency markets. Analysts are forecasting various scenarios, such as the euro rising to $1.15 if Harris wins, or sliding to parity with the dollar in the case of a Republican sweep. Options traders are preparing for increased volatility, particularly in the euro, as the election results unfold. [Extracted from the article]

Investors are adjusting their positions in response to doubts about a potential Trump victory in the US presidential election, leading to a decline in Treasury yields and a weakening dollar. Polls indicating a possible win for Democrat Kamala Harris have prompted a re-evaluation of "Trump trades." Emerging-market currencies like the Mexican peso have strengthened as investors anticipate the impact of different election outcomes on trade policies. Traders are also monitoring Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and upcoming Treasury auctions amidst the election uncertainty. [Extracted from the article]

Investors are holding more short than long positions in the pound following the UK government's new budget, leading to a selloff in UK assets, as reported by Barclays Plc. The Labour Party's recent fiscal plan has unsettled markets, causing a decline in government bonds, shares, and the pound. Despite this, the pound remains relatively stable against the US dollar, with traders adjusting their positions in response to the budget and potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses the response of bond traders to UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves' budget speech, highlighting the sharp reversal of benchmark 10-year gilts from gains to losses. The government's attempt to balance fiscal responsibility and investment was met with caution from investors, who expressed concerns about potential debt auctions and interest rate cuts. Despite initial market jitters, some fund managers remained confident in the UK bond market's resilience, anticipating a return to stability. The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Bank of England's economic outlook to gauge future market reactions. [Extracted from the article]

The Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets is collaborating with European regulators to enhance algorithm pre-trade controls for trading firms, aiming to prevent erroneous orders from causing market disruptions. The AFM is also partnering with the University of Oxford to research computer-driven trading models and assess market manipulation risks. As algorithmic trading expands, regulators are striving to better understand and monitor this technology, acknowledging the need for continued learning and collaboration with academia to stay informed on cutting-edge developments. [Extracted from the article]

The Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets is collaborating with other regulators and academic institutions, including the University of Oxford, to enhance algorithm testing in trading firms to prevent unintended behavior and market abuse. Research conducted by the AFM and Oxford has shown that self-learning algorithms can have unintended consequences, such as colluding to maximize profits. Regulators, like Robert Graumans from the AFM, acknowledge the need to better understand algorithmic trading and its associated risks, highlighting the importance of partnerships with academia for cutting-edge insights. [Extracted from the article]

Hedge funds and asset managers are selling the pound in anticipation of the UK budget, as reported by Citigroup Inc. The pound has dropped from its recent high and is currently trading near its lowest level since mid-August. Market confidence in the pound has been decreasing, with traders betting on potential Bank of England interest-rate cuts. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves plans to introduce changes in the UK's debt measurement, potentially freeing up £70 billion in fiscal headroom. Bloomberg's report suggests a bearish outlook on sterling in the foreign exchange market ahead of the budget, with limited potential for gains against the euro in the near future. [Extracted from the article]

The recent bond selloff in Treasuries slowed down as oil prices dropped, attracting buyers and keeping yields near their highest levels since July. Factors such as strong US economic activity, speculation about the upcoming presidential election, and expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts influenced market movements. The Federal Reserve's beige book indicated flat economic activity in most US regions, with uncertainty surrounding the election highlighted as a source of concern. Market participants are closely watching developments in Treasury options activity and money-market assets, with expectations of a quarter-point rate cut next month. [Extracted from the article]

US Treasuries rebounded on Thursday after three days of declines, with yields lower across the curve, led by five- to 10-year yields. Expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts remained low, reflecting a similar trend overseas. The recent selloff in Treasuries has been attributed to worries about a resilient US economy and speculation about the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. Market analysts suggest that the fundamental backdrop favors higher Treasury yields, with focus now shifting to US data and comments from Federal Reserve officials. [Extracted from the article]

British companies are extending the length of their currency hedges due to the pound's recent strength and concerns about global geopolitical uncertainty causing increased volatility. A survey of 250 CFOs and treasurers found that firms are seeking longer-term protection against currency fluctuations. The majority of UK corporates hedge their currency exposure, with many now considering it due to the potential impact of the pound's strength on corporate finances. Finance leaders are diversifying their hedging strategies and exploring the use of artificial intelligence in financial transactions. [Extracted from the article]

The European Central Bank's recent interest rate cut signals a potential series of further moves, as President Christine Lagarde's comments hint at more aggressive easing in the future. Market expectations now include a 20% chance of a half-point reduction in December and quarter-point steps at every meeting through April. While investors seem to be ahead of the curve in predicting the central bank's actions, there is uncertainty about whether Lagarde and her colleagues are in control or merely reacting to market judgments. [Extracted from the article]

IMC Trading, a Dutch electronic trading firm, is preparing to enter the foreign exchange market by dealing in currency options. The firm will initially focus on short-dated contracts on Group-of-10 currencies, which are the most liquid in the global currency market. IMC's move comes as demand for currency options increases due to uncertainty in the geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape. The firm will be competing with Optiver, another Dutch firm, in the FX options market. IMC plans to eventually move closer to dealing directly with the buy side. [Extracted from the article]

IMC Trading, a Dutch electronic trading firm, is expanding into currency options to take advantage of increasing demand in the face of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. The company will initially focus on short-dated contracts on Group-of-10 currencies, which are the most liquid in the global currency market. IMC's move follows a trend of non-bank market makers gaining influence in various asset classes, as technology enables faster trading and easier risk management. The firm will be competing with Optiver, another Dutch company, in the FX options market. [Extracted from the article]

US government bond yields stabilized after reaching their highest levels since July, and oil prices fell. Short-dated yields, which are sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy, declined slightly ahead of inflation data that is expected to support further interest rate cuts. Longer-dated yields remained steady or increased slightly, following a surge last week when strong jobs data reduced expectations for a large rate cut. Traders are now looking to Thursday's consumer prices data for signs of deceleration. [Extracted from the article]

The UK's plan to adopt a faster equities trading regime, following the US, may pose challenges for the foreign-exchange industry due to the pound's lower liquidity compared to the dollar. Concerns include the risk of failed currency trades, as seen in the US experience. The taskforce leading the transition has been working with the Global Financial Markets Association to mitigate the impact on currency markets, suggesting that firms automate more trade processes to facilitate faster settlements. However, the report also calls for regulators to educate market participants on the risks and for settlement firm CLS and custodian banks to assess whether deadlines can be extended. [Extracted from the article]

Investors in US government debt are pausing their selling as they await the results of bond auctions and a key inflation report to inform their predictions about the Federal Reserve's next moves. The short-end of the bond market is leading the advance, as bets on interest-rate cuts stabilize after recent repricing. Strong jobs data last week surprised traders who were expecting more rate cuts from the Fed, and now investors are focusing on Thursday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to show a gradual slowdown in price growth. Traders are currently expecting around 50 basis points of easing from the Fed by the end of the year, down from previous expectations. [Extracted from the article]

US government bond yields continued to decline, reaching their highest levels since July. Traders are anticipating Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, with inflation data expected to support these cuts. Short-term yields, which are more sensitive to changes in Fed policy, remained stable after recent fluctuations. Strong jobs data last week surprised traders and raised concerns about inflation. Investors are now awaiting consumer prices data, which is expected to show a slowdown. The Treasury Department's upcoming auctions may make investors cautious. Traders are currently predicting around 50 basis points of easing from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year. [Extracted from the article]

Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that the economy is not yet ready for further interest-rate hikes, causing the yen to weaken. Ishiba emphasized the need for sustainable progress in the economy and the continuation of monetary easing to combat deflation. The comments from Ishiba's new government suggest a reluctance to raise borrowing costs and a focus on eradicating deflation. The market response to these comments may lead to a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. [Extracted from the article]

US Treasuries experienced a rally as a result of concerns over a potential conflict between Iran and Israel, leading to increased demand for safe haven assets. This caused yields to decrease and trading volumes in 10-year Treasury note futures to surge. The dollar and bonds in Europe also saw gains, while stocks and other riskier assets declined. The market is also speculating on the possibility of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with money markets pricing in a one-in-three chance of a half-point cut in November. Additionally, global government bonds, particularly in Europe, were already rising due to expectations of interest rate cuts in response to signs of economic weakness. The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering further rate cuts, and concerns about Germany's manufacturing sector and economic growth outlook have increased. The ECB is now expected to cut rates in October, earlier than previously anticipated. [Extracted from the article]

Government bonds in Europe have experienced a rally, while the euro has decreased in value, following comments from European Central Bank policymaker Olli Rehn suggesting that further interest rate cuts may be necessary. French securities, which performed poorly last week, saw the biggest improvement, with the 10-year yield dropping by up to 10 basis points. Traders are now predicting that the ECB will implement a quarter-point decrease in interest rates this month, as Germany's economy has been stagnant and inflation has fallen below the ECB's target. These developments have led to speculation about a rate cut in October. [Extracted from the article]

Government bonds have rallied and traders are anticipating faster interest-rate cuts in Europe due to signs of a weakening economy. French bonds were particularly affected, with the 10-year yield reaching its lowest level since March. The European Central Bank (ECB) has hinted at the possibility of cutting interest rates again this month, following other policymakers who have raised the idea of consecutive reductions. Traders are adjusting their expectations for a more aggressive global easing cycle, bidding up bonds in anticipation of further interest rate drops. The market is now positioning for back-to-back reductions in both the US and Europe. [Extracted from the article]

Investors are avoiding the US dollar and favoring trades that don't involve the currency due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US election and Federal Reserve policy. This is a departure from the norm, as the dollar typically dominates the foreign-exchange market. Long-term investor positioning in the dollar is currently neutral, and major financial institutions are holding off on making big bets on the currency until after the election. Instead, investors are turning to cross-currency pairs and trades that are less exposed to the US political landscape. [Extracted from the article]

Investors are increasingly favoring trades that avoid the US dollar due to uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy and the upcoming US elections. This is a departure from the norm in the foreign-exchange market, where the dollar typically plays a dominant role. Long-term investor positioning in the dollar is currently neutral, and major financial institutions like Wells Fargo, RBC, Allspring Global Investments, and State Street Global Advisors are holding off on making big dollar bets until after the election. Instead, investors are turning to cross-currency pairs, such as shorting the Swiss franc against the Japanese yen or betting on the euro to slump against the Norwegian krone. The outlook for the dollar is also influenced by the Fed's policy path and the potential impact of a second Trump administration on trade relations. [Extracted from the article]

The US dollar is at risk of losing all its gains for the year due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more aggressively to support the economy. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remains close to its lowest level since December, and the dollar is weak against the euro and pound. Traders are increasingly betting on further rate cuts, with a 50% chance of another half-point cut in November. The US economy is not in a clear recession, but signs of strain are growing, such as job losses and declining consumer confidence. The dollar's future path will depend on US growth and inflation figures. [Extracted from the article]

The US dollar is close to erasing all of its gains for the year due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more aggressively to support the economy. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is just 0.5% away from its lowest level since December, reducing its year-to-date gains by almost 5%. The Fed's recent decision to cut rates by half a point has put pressure on the dollar, and traders are now betting on further rate cuts in November. Analysts predict that the dollar will continue to weaken, although on a smaller scale. [Extracted from the article]

ING Groep NV, a Dutch lender, is using artificial intelligence (AI) to price currencies, a task previously done manually by traders. The AI model, which employs reinforcement learning, has proven to be more effective than humans in making pricing decisions and managing market volatility. This move reflects a broader trend in the banking industry to adopt cutting-edge technology, reduce expenses, and increase efficiency. While some traders express skepticism about the complete eradication of human oversight, ING emphasizes the importance of human monitoring and has implemented controls to ensure accountability. The bank plans to expand the use of AI models to other asset classes in the future. [Extracted from the article]

The euro zone's economy is facing a decline, leading investors to believe that the European Central Bank (ECB) will accelerate interest-rate cuts. While it is uncertain if there will be a reduction next month, the recent significant decline in the region's composite Purchasing Managers' Index has increased the likelihood of monetary easing by year-end. Weak foreign demand, hesitant consumers, and troubles in the manufacturing sector are contributing to the economic concerns. The ECB's more dovish policymakers are warning that a prolonged high interest rate could harm the economy, while others argue that service-price inflation is a more significant risk. [Extracted from the article]

Singapore Exchange Ltd. is considering expanding into Dubai due to the increasing number of hedge funds that have settled in the United Arab Emirates. Lee Beng Hong, head of wholesale markets and platforms at SGX, stated that the firm's clients moving to Dubai are strengthening the case for opening a new office. Several fund managers have recently chosen Dubai as their base due to government incentives, a favorable timezone, and a low tax regime. While SGX's strategy in the Middle East is in its early stages, the initial plan is to relocate an employee from Qatar to Dubai before hiring more people. [Extracted from the article]

Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald LP, is planning to compete with CME Group Inc. in Treasury futures and has gained support from major US banks. This move has drawn attention from Democratic Senator Dick Durbin, who expressed concerns about the potential risks of clearing US Treasury futures abroad. The debate centers on whether FMX, Lutnick's new exchange, should be allowed to partner with UK-based clearinghouse LCH Ltd. to clear Treasury futures. The battle for control of the Treasury markets has intensified with the Securities and Exchange Commission implementing new rules for centrally clearing cash trading. FMX is also challenging CME's position in US Treasury futures and US interest-rate futures, with its SOFR contract set to start trading soon. FMX argues that having all deals under the same clearinghouse will provide capital savings for clients. CME CEO Terry Duffy has questioned whether FMX should be allowed to clear Treasury futures overseas. Piper Sandler believes that if FMX is blocked from using LCH as a clearing partner, it would likely fail in interest-rate futures. Durbin warned that foreign regulators may prioritize their home countries' interests, potentially impacting US Treasury market volatility and liquidity. LCH already handles a significant portion of cleared US dollar interest-rate swaps. Some experts argue that increased competition in the Treasury market would be beneficial. [Extracted from the article]

Treasuries are ending the week with mostly higher yield levels following the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut in four years. The rate cut was larger than expected, but note and bond yields had already reached their lowest levels of the year prior to the cut. The outlook for future rate cuts remains uncertain, and the market has little room for gains. Longer-dated yields have risen this week, with the 10-year yield reaching around 3.72%. Economists have varying forecasts for future rate cuts, with some predicting quarter-point moves. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman dissented from the rate cut decision, stating that it could be seen as a premature declaration of victory on inflation. The market expects quarter-point cuts in the remaining Fed meetings of the year. Treasury yields briefly declined after the rate decision but resumed rising after Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned against expecting a pattern of half-point moves. The market-implied terminal rate remains around 3%. Bond market volatility has fallen to the lowest level in two months, reflecting expectations for a measured policy approach. Investors are now focusing on upcoming economic data and remarks from policymakers. [Extracted from the article]

The recent Federal Reserve interest-rate cut had little impact on Treasury yields, with short-end yields trading at 3.60%, close to where they started the week. The bond market remains inconclusive, with economists divided on what to expect next. The market-implied terminal rate is around 3%. The Fed's aggressive half-point cut initially caused yields to fall, but they quickly rebounded after comments from Chair Jerome Powell. Bond market volatility has decreased, and attention now turns to upcoming economic data and remarks from policymakers. The rate cut has also affected risky assets and safe haven bonds. [Extracted from the article]

JPMorgan Chase correctly predicted the Federal Reserve's half-point interest-rate cut and believes that another big reduction will depend on the weakening of the US labor market. The bank's chief US economist, Michael Feroli, maintains his call for a 50-basis-point reduction in November, but this is contingent on the findings of upcoming jobs reports. JPMorgan's rates strategists also anticipate that Treasury yields will remain range-bound until the September employment report provides direction. Other Wall Street banks, such as Goldman Sachs, have adjusted their forecasts, with some expecting consecutive quarter-point cuts from November through to June 2025. [Extracted from the article]

Algorithmic trading is transforming the role of currency dealers, leading to questions about who will be responsible for the increasing reliance on computer models. While advancements in technology have already changed the day-to-day jobs of buy-side currency traders, they are skeptical that artificial intelligence will completely eliminate the need for human oversight. Trading in the global currency market is increasingly being handled by machines, with algorithms already responsible for over 75% of trading in spot markets. However, concerns remain about accountability if things go wrong, as demonstrated by previous incidents such as the yen flash crash in 2019 and the pound plunge in 2016. [Extracted from the article]

The Bank of England has warned that a significant number of currency trades are at risk of failure each day, and this issue will be a key focus for an industry code of conduct review. The central bank estimates that 10% to 15% of the daily $7.5 trillion foreign-exchange market's turnover is settled without any risk mitigation. The US move to a one-day securities settlement cycle has highlighted the risk of failed trades, and policymakers may consider enhancing regulation. The Global FX Committee is set to review its code by December, with settlement risk being a key area of focus. The currency market is less regulated than other asset classes, and improving data transparency is also a priority. [Extracted from the article]

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned that the financial system is at risk of experiencing similar episodes of volatility to the one that occurred this summer when a popular hedge fund strategy collapsed. As central banks reduce liquidity, investors will need to decrease leverage and reassess risk strategies. The recent unwinding of carry trades, where traders borrowed heavily in yen and invested in higher-yielding assets, exemplifies the potential consequences of this transition. The BIS is seeking to improve its tracking of carry trades to better understand market vulnerabilities, as the purpose of each trade is currently unclear. The BIS emphasizes the need for policymakers to closely monitor developments and the potential risks that are building up. [Extracted from the article]

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) is working to update its trading capabilities, but is maintaining traditional voice methods for dealers in Japanese government bonds. MUFG is catching up to competitors in electronic trading, but the Japanese government bond market remains driven by a few large asset managers, making voice interaction crucial for the bank. MUFG has hired new staff in India to develop technology centers and automate prices through algorithms. The bank has also partnered with Morgan Stanley for collaboration on foreign exchange trading and Japanese equity sales. [Extracted from the article]

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) is working to update its electronic trading capabilities while still maintaining traditional voice methods for dealers in Japanese government bonds. The bank's head of electronic trading, Stu Taylor, acknowledges that Japan's market has been relationship-based but recognizes the need for data, compliance, and efficiency. MUFG is catching up to competitors in electronic trading across fixed income and equities, but Taylor believes voice interaction is crucial in the Japanese government bond market, which is dominated by a few large asset managers. MUFG has invested in technology centers in India and partnered with ION Markets to automate prices through algorithms. They have also collaborated with Morgan Stanley on foreign exchange trading and Japanese equity sales. [Extracted from the article]

The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered its key deposit rate by a quarter-point for the second time this year, but President Christine Lagarde did not provide any guidance on future rate cuts. The ECB is waiting for data on the state of the economy and its impact on inflation before making any decisions. Projections for euro-zone output have been downgraded, indicating a worsening economic backdrop. While some analysts expect further rate cuts, others believe that rising salaries and a souring economy could lead to sub-par inflation and require more monetary loosening. The Federal Reserve is also expected to ease policy, which may influence the ECB's decisions. [Extracted from the article]

Morgan Stanley predicts that the euro will decline by 7% against the dollar in the coming months due to the European Central Bank's potential implementation of more aggressive policy measures to address a weakening economy. The bank expects the euro to reach $1.02 by the end of the year, while other analysts surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate an increase to $1.11. The call for a depreciation in the euro is based on the assumption that the central bank will continue to cut interest rates at its next three meetings, potentially including a half-point reduction. The article also mentions rising political uncertainty in Europe as a factor contributing to the downward trend in the euro. [Extracted from the article]