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Abstract: Objectives: This study determines the risk of ipsilateral ischaemic neurological events in relation to the degree of asymptomatic carotid stenosis and other risk factors. Methods: Patients (n=1115) with asymptomatic internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis greater than 50% in relation to the bulb diameter were followed up for a period of 6–84 (mean 37.1) months. Stenosis was graded using duplex, and clinical and biochemical risk factors were recorded. Results: The relationship between ICA stenosis and event rate is linear when stenosis is expressed by the ECST method, but S-shaped if expressed by the NASCET method. In addition to the ECST grade of stenosis (RR 1.6; 95% CI 1.21–2.15), history of contralateral TIAs (RR 3.0; 95% CI 1.90–4.73) and creatinine in excess of 85μmol/L (RR 2.1; 95% CI 1.23–3.65) were independent risk predictors. The combination of these three risk factors can identify a high-risk group (7.3% annual event rate and 4.3% annual stroke rate) and a low risk group (2.3% annual event rate and 0.7% annual stroke rate). Conclusions: Linearity between ECST per cent stenosis and risk makes this method for grading stenosis more amenable to risk prediction without any transformation not only in clinical practice but also when multivariable analysis is to be used. Identification of additional risk factors provides a new approach to risk stratification and should help refine the indications for carotid endarterectomy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The aim of this study was to determine the effect of image normalization on plaque classification and the risk of ipsilateral ischemic neurologic events in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis. The first 1,115 patients recruited to the Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis and Risk of Stroke (ACSRS) study with a follow-up of 6 to 84 months (mean 37.1 months) were included in this study. Duplex ultrasonography was used for grading the degree of internal carotid artery stenosis and for plaque characterization (types 1-5), which was performed before and after image normalization. One hundred sixteen ipsilateral ischemic hemispheric events occurred. Image normalization resulted in 60% of plaques being reclassified. Before image normalization, a high event rate was associated with all types of plaque. After image normalization, 109 (94%) of the events occurred in patients with plaque types 1 to 3. For patients with European Carotid Stenosis Trial (ECST) 70 to 99% diameter stenosis (equivalent to North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial [NASCET] 50-99%) with plaque types 1 to 3, the cumulative stroke rate was 14% at 7 years (2% per year), and for patients with plaque types 4 and 5, the cumulative stroke rate was 0.9% at 7 years (0.14% per year). The results suggest that asymptomatic patients with plaque types 4 and 5 classified as such after image normalization are at low risk irrespective of the degree of stenosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]