Search

Studying the spatial distribution of agricultural pests can provide important information about the species dispersion mechanisms and its interaction with environmental factors. It also helps the development of sampling plans, the integrated pest management and planning of experiments. This work compared several models for studying the spatial variation of the coffee berry borer infestation in order to produce risk maps and identify areas of low/high levels of infestation. Firstly spatial analysis was carried out using different combinations of random effects representing spatially structured and unstructured variability. Also different neighborhood schemes were used to represent the spatial correlation of the data. Mixture models allowing for the excess of zeros in the first months were also considered. The model fitting was done using MCMC methods. The results are presented as a sequence of risk maps.Estudar a distribuição espacial de pragas em sistemas agrícolas pode fornecer informação importante sobre os mecanismos de dispersão das espécies e sua interação com fatores ambientais, sendo útil também no desenvolvimento de planos de amostragem, na otimização de programas de manejo integrado de pragas e no planejamento de experimentos. Neste trabalho foram comparados vários modelos para estudar a variação espacial da infestação da broca do café visando descrever adequadamente a dispersão da infestação da praga e identificar áreas de crescimento ou decréscimo na infestação. Foram usadas diferentes combinações de efeitos aleatórios representando variabilidade não estruturada e estruturada espacialmente. Foram também avaliados diferentes esquemas de vizinhança para representar a correlação espacial dos dados. Adicionalmente foram testados modelos de mistura para levar em consideração o excesso de zeros no início da infestação. O ajuste dos modelos foi feito usando métodos MCMC. Os resultados são apresentados como uma seqüência de mapas de risco de infestação.Estudiar la distribución espacial de las plagas en los sistemas agrícolas puede proporcionar información importante sobre los mecanismos de dispersión de las especies y su interacción con factores ambientales, y también es útil en el desarrollo de planes de muestreo, la optimización de los programas de manejo integrado de plagas y la planificación de experimentos. En este estudio se compararon varios modelos para estudiar la variación espacial de la infestación de broca del café con el fin de describir adecuadamente la dispersión de la infestación de la plaga e identificar las áreas de crecimiento o disminución de la infestación. Fueron utilizadas diferentes combinaciones de efectos aleatorios que representan la variabilidad espacial estructurada y no estructurada. También se evaluaron diferentes esquemas vecinos para representar la correlación espacial de los datos. Adicionalmente modelos mixtos fueron probados para tener en cuenta el exceso de ceros al comienzo de la infestación. El ajuste de los modelos se realizó mediante métodos MCMC. Los resultados se presentan como una secuencia de mapas de riesgo de infestación.

INTRODUÇÃO: Existem muitas críticas à qualidade dos dados criminais existentes no Brasil, mas há pouco estudo sistemático para corroborar essas críticas. Nesse sentido, foi feito estudo com o objetivo de comparar o número de homicídios registrados entre dois sistemas públicos de informação. MÉTODOS: Foram analisados os óbitos registrados pelo Sistema de Informações de Mortalidade do Ministério da Saúde (SIM/MS) e pela Polícia Militar (PMMG), de 1979 a 1998. A comparação entre os dois sistemas foi feita pela razão entre os números absolutos, categorizando os municípios em cinco grupos de acordo com o tamanho da população em 1998, e pelas taxas de homicídio. Foram ajustados dois modelos de regressão linear das taxas no tempo, um para cada sistema. RESULTADOS: Nas cidades de menos de 100.00 habitantes, as informações de homicídios da PMMG são mais completas do que as do SIM/MS. Nas cidades de mais de 100.000 habitantes, o SIM/MS é capaz de recuperar mais eficientemente os óbitos, embora possam ser incluídos indevidamente óbitos de homicídios cometidos em outros municípios e óbitos por arma branca e de fogo de intenção indeterminada que não tenham sido devido a homicídio. O sub-registro da PMMG pode ser devido às mortes hospitalares tardias, que não são acompanhadas pela PMMG. CONCLUSÕES: Os sistemas do SIM/MS e PMMG representam limites superiores e inferiores do número real de homicídios ocorridos nas grandes cidades. Sugere-se que, quando disponíveis, as duas fontes sejam analisadas e comparadas; quando apenas uma delas estiver disponível, propõe-se que a análise deva considerar as diferenças.

We conducted a cross-sectional study of the spatial distribution of HTLV-I/II infection among blood donors of Hemominas Foundation, living in Belo Horizonte, from 1994 to 1996. Study population (1,022) was composed by 533 cases (positive Western Blot (WB), indeterminate WB and ELISA positive without WB result) and a random sample of 489 non-cases (HTLV-I/II serum negative). Cases and non-cases were georeferenced using the exact or an approximation of the household address reported at the blood donation interview. Using multivariate analysis, cases with WB result are less likely to be reposition blood donors compared to voluntary ones (OR = 0.70; CI 95%: 0.50-0.99). Using the difference between univariate K functions, we found no evidence that cases and non-cases differ in their spatial distribution. We found no evidence that cases with and without WB result differ in the distance between their residence and Hemominas Foundation. No donors without WB result were georeferenced by the exact address. These donors could not have received the Hemominas letter inviting them to return to collect the second blood sample.

In this paper, we present spatial analysis of the association between all incidents cases of human Visceral Leishmaniasis and seropositive dogs, from 1994 to 1997 in Belo Horizonte, a large Brazilian city. We geocoded 158 human cases and 11,048 seropositive dogs and compared canine prevalence rates with Human Bayesian Incidence rates in the same areas. We also used Knox's test to evaluate the hypothesis of space-time clustering of human cases in the period. Additionally, we used Kernel's maps for seropositive dogs distribution and located the human cases in the resulting smooth maps. We concluded that human and dog rates are correlated. Also, the Visceral Leishmaniasis in Belo Horizonte spread quickly, but apart from the rates' magnitude, it has kept the same spatial pattern through time. We believe it is possible to use this technique to choose areas to implement control measures against Visceral Leishmaniasis in a more efficient way.

Neste trabalho, apresentamos uma análise espacial dos homicídios ocorridos em Belo Horizonte e registrados pela Polícia Militar de Minas Gerais durante o período de 1995 até 1999. Utilizamos o programa SaTScan para identificar os conglomerados de risco de mortalidade mais elevado. Considerando todas as regiões da cidade de Belo Horizonte, apenas dez apresentam um risco maior de homicídios, quase todas concentradas em favelas. Como existem 85 favelas ao todo, concluímos que não são as condições sócio-econômicas per se as responsáveis pelos conglomerados de homicídios, mas o fato dessas regiões serem assoladas pelo trafico e violência associada ao comércio de drogas.

Neste artigo, apresentamos métodos estatísticos desenvolvidos recentemente para a análise de mapas de taxas de morbidade quando as unidades geográficas possuem pequenas populações de risco. Eles adotam a abordagem Bayesiana e utilizam métodos computacionais intensivos para estimação do risco de cada área. O objetivo dos métodos é separar a variabilidade das taxas devida às diferenças entre as regiões do risco subjacente daquela devida à pura flutuação aleatória. As estimativas de risco possuem um erro quadrático médio total menor que as estimativas usuais. Aplicamos esses novos métodos para estimar o risco de mortalidade infantil nos municípios de Minas Gerais em 1994.

Recent estimates have reiterated that non-fatal causes of disease, such as low back pain, headaches and depressive disorders, are amongst the leading causes of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). For these causes, the contribution of years lived with disability (YLD) - put simply, ill-health - is what drives DALYs, not mortality. Being able to monitor trends in YLD closely is particularly relevant for countries that sit high on the socio-demographic spectrum of development, as it contributes more than half of all DALYs. There is a paucity of data on how the population-level occurrence of disease is distributed according to severity, and as such, the majority of global and national efforts in monitoring YLD lack the ability to differentiate changes in severity across time and location. This raises uncertainties in interpreting these findings without triangulation with other relevant data sources. Our commentary aims to bring this issue to the forefront for users of burden of disease estimates, as its impact is often easily overlooked as part of the fundamental process of generating DALY estimates. Moreover, the wider health harms of the COVID-19 pandemic have underlined the likelihood of latent and delayed demand in accessing vital health and care services that will ultimately lead to exacerbated disease severity and health outcomes. This places increased importance on attempts to be able to differentiate by both the occurrence and severity of disease.

Objective: Evaluate the accuracy of criteria for diagnosing pressure overassistance during pressure support ventilation., Design: Prospective clinical study., Setting: Medical-surgical ICU., Patients: Adults under mechanical ventilation for 48 hours or more using pressure support ventilation and without any sedative for 6 hours or more. Overassistance was defined as the occurrence of work of breathing less than 0.3 J/L or 10% or more of ineffective inspiratory effort. Two alternative overassistance definitions were based on the occurrence of inspiratory esophageal pressure-time product of less than 50 cm H2O s/min or esophageal occlusion pressure of less than 1.5 cm H2O., Interventions: The pressure support was set to 20 cm H2O and decreased in 3-cm H2O steps down to 2 cm H2O., Measurements and Main Results: The following parameters were evaluated to diagnose overassistance: respiratory rate, tidal volume, minute ventilation, peripheral arterial oxygen saturation, rapid shallow breathing index, heart rate, mean arterial pressure, change in esophageal pressure during inspiration, and esophageal and airway occlusion pressure. In all definitions, the respiratory rate had the greatest accuracy for diagnosing overassistance (receiver operating characteristic area = 0.92; 0.91 and 0.76 for work of breathing, pressure-time product and esophageal occlusion pressure in definition, respectively) and always with a cutoff of 17 incursions per minute. In all definitions, a respiratory rate of less than or equal to 12 confirmed overassistance (100% specificity), whereas a respiratory rate of greater than or equal to 30 excluded overassistance (100% sensitivity)., Conclusion: A respiratory rate of 17 breaths/min is the parameter with the greatest accuracy for diagnosing overassistance. Respiratory rates of less than or equal to 12 or greater than or equal to 30 are useful clinical references to confirm or exclude pressure support overassistance.

Arthroplasty has evolved with the application of electron beam melting (EBM) in the manufacture of porous mediums for uncemented fixation. Osseointegration of EBM and plasma-sprayed titanium (Ti PS) implant dowels in adult sheep was assessed in graduated cancellous defects and under line-to-line fit in cortical bone. Shear strength and bony ingrowth (EBM) and ongrowth (Ti PS) were assessed after 4 and 12 weeks. Shear strength of EBM exceeded that for Ti PS at 12 weeks (P = .030). Ongrowth achieved by Ti PS in graduated cancellous defects followed a distinctive pattern that correlated to progressively decreasing radial distances between defect and implant, whereas cancellous ingrowth values at 12 weeks for the EBM were not different. Osteoconductive porous structures manufactured using EBM present a viable alternative to traditional surface treatments., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)