Search

Abstract: Aim: Understanding the impacts of past and future climate change on genetic diversity and structure is a current major research gap. We ask whether past range shifts explain the observed genetic diversity of surfgrass species and if future climate change projections anticipate genetic diversity losses. Our study aims to identify regions of long‐term climate suitability with higher and unique seagrass genetic diversity and predict future impacts of climate change on them. Location: Northeast Pacific. Time Period: Analyses considered a timeframe from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 20 kybp) until one Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario of future climate changes (RCP 8.5; 2100). Major Taxa Studied: Two seagrass species belonging to the genus Phyllospadix. Methods: We estimated population genetic diversity and structure using 11 polymorphic microsatellite markers. We predicted the distribution of the species for the present, LGM, and near future (RCP 8.5, no climate mitigation) using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Results: SDMs revealed southward range shifts during the LGM and potential poleward expansions in the future. Genetic diversity of Phyllospadix torreyi decreases from north to south, but in Phyllospadix scouleri the trend is variable. Phyllospadix scouleri displays signals of genome admixture at the southernmost and northernmost edges of its distribution. Main Conclusions: The genetic patterns observed in the present reveal the influence of climate‐driven range shifts in the past and suggest further consequences of climate change in the future, with potential loss of unique gene pools. This study also shows that investigating climate links to present genetic information at multiple timescales can establish a historical context for analyses of the future evolutionary history of populations.

Amphiboreal taxa are often composed of vicariant phylogroups and species complexes whose divergence and phylogeographic affinities reflect a shared history of chronic isolation and episodic trans-Arctic dispersal. Ecological filters and shifting selective pressures may also promote selective sweeps, niche shifts and ecological speciation during colonization, but these are seldom considered at biogeographical scales. Here we integrate genetic data and Ecologic Niche Models (ENMs) to investigate the historical biogeography and cohesion of the polymorphic rockweed Fucus distichus throughout its immense amphiboreal range, focusing on trans-Arctic asymmetries, glacial/interglacial dynamics, and integrity of sympatric eco-morphotypes. Populations were sampled throughout the Pacific and the Atlantic, from southern rear-edges to the high-Arctic. They were genotyped for seven microsatellites and an mtDNA spacer, and genetic diversity and structure were assessed from global to local scales. ENMs were used to compare niche divergence and magnitude of post-glacial range shifts in Pacific versus Atlantic sub-ranges. Haplotypic and genotypic data revealed distinct and seemingly isolated Pacific vs Arctic/Atlantic gene-pools, with finer-scale regional sub-structuring pervasive in the Pacific. MtDNA diversity was highly structured and overwhelmingly concentrated in the Pacific. Regionally, Alaska showed the highest intra-population diversity but the lowest levels of endemism. Some sympatric/parapatric ecotypes exhibited distinct genotypic/haplotypic compositions. Strikingly, niche models revealed higher Pacific tolerance to maximum temperatures and predicted a much more consolidated presence in the NE Atlantic. Glacial and modern ranges overlapped extensively in the Pacific, whereas the modern Atlantic range was largely glaciated or emerged during the Last Glacial Maximum. Higher genetic and ecogeographic diversity supports a primary Pacific diversification and secondary Atlantic colonization, also likely reflecting the much larger and more stable climatic refugia in the Pacific. The relic distribution and reduced ecological/morphological plasticity in the NE Atlantic are hypothesized to reflect functional trans-Arctic bottlenecks, recent colonization or competition with congeners. Within the Pacific, Alaska showed signatures of a post-glacial melting pot of eastern and southern populations. Genetic/ecotypic variation was generally not sufficiently discontinuous or consistent to justify recognizing multiple taxonomic entities, but support a separate species in the eastern Pacific, at the southern rear-edge. We predict that layered patterns of phylogeographic structure, incipient speciation and niche differences might be common among widespread low-dispersal amphiboreal taxa.

The paradigm of past climate-driven range shifts structuring the distribution of marine intraspecific biodiversity lacks replication in biological models exposed to comparable limiting conditions in independent regions. This may lead to confounding effects unlinked to climate drivers. We aim to fill in this gap by asking whether the global distribution of intraspecific biodiversity of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) is explained by past climate changes occurring across the two hemispheres. We compared the species population genetic diversity and structure inferred with microsatellite markers, with range shifts and long-term refugial regions predicted with species distribution modelling (SDM) from the last glacial maximum (LGM) to the present. The broad antitropical distribution of Macrocystis pyrifera is composed by six significantly differentiated genetic groups, for which current genetic diversity levels match the expectations of past climate changes. Range shifts from the LGM to the present structured low latitude refugial regions where genetic relics with higher and unique diversity were found (particularly in the Channel Islands of California and in Peru), while post-glacial expansions following ~ 40% range contraction explained extensive regions with homogenous reduced diversity. The estimated effect of past climate-driven range shifts was comparable between hemispheres, largely demonstrating that the distribution of intraspecific marine biodiversity can be structured by comparable evolutionary forces across the global ocean. Additionally, the differentiation and endemicity of regional genetic groups, confers high conservation value to these localized intraspecific biodiversity hotspots of giant kelp forests.

Aim: Genetic diversity of marine forests results from complex interactions of eco‐evolutionary processes. Among them, oceanographic connectivity driven by dispersal through water transport is hypothesized to play a pivotal role, yet its relative contribution has not been addressed at the global scale. Here, we test how present‐day oceanographic connectivity is correlated with the distribution of genetic diversity of marine forests across the ocean. Location: Global. Time period: Contemporary. Major taxa studied: Marine forests of brown macroalgae (order: Fucales, Ishigeales, Laminariales and Tilopteridales). Methods: Through literature review, we compiled a comprehensive dataset of genetic differentiation, encompassing 699 populations of 30 species. A biophysical model coupled with network analyses estimated multigenerational oceanographic connectivity and centrality across the marine forest global distribution. This approach integrated propagule dispersive capacity and long‐distance dispersal events. Linear mixed models tested the relative contribution of site‐specific processes, connectivity and centrality in explaining genetic differentiation. Results: We show that spatiality‐dependent eco‐evolutionary processes, as described by our models, are prominent drivers of genetic differentiation in marine forests (significant models in 91.43% of the cases with an average R2 of 0.50 ± 0.07). Specifically, we reveal that 18.7% of genetic differentiation variance is explicitly induced by predicted contemporary connectivity and centrality. Moreover, we demonstrate that long‐distance dispersal is key in connecting populations of species distributed across large water masses and continents. Main conclusions: Our findings highlight the role of present‐day oceanographic connectivity in shaping the extant distribution of genetic diversity of marine forests on a global scale, with significant implications for biogeography and evolution. This understanding can pave the way for future research aimed at guiding conservation efforts, including the designation of well‐connected marine protected areas, which is particularly relevant for sessile ecosystems structuring species such as brown macroalgae. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivation: Impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity are often projected with species distribution modelling using standardized data layers representing physical, chemical and biological conditions of the global ocean. Yet, the available data layers (1) have not been updated to incorporate data of the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), which comprise the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios; (2) consider a limited number of Earth System Models (ESMs), and (3) miss important variables expected to influence future biodiversity distributions. These limitations might undermine biodiversity impact assessments, by failing to integrate them within the context of the most up‐to‐date climate change projections, raising the uncertainty in estimates and misinterpreting the exposure of biodiversity to extreme conditions. Here, we provide a significant update of Bio‐ORACLE, extending biologically relevant data layers from present‐day conditions to the end of the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios based on a multi‐model ensemble with data from CMIP6. Alongside, we provide R and Python packages for seamless integration in modelling workflows. The data layers aim to enhance the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity and to support well‐informed research, conservation and management. Main Types of Variable Contained: Surface and benthic layers for, chlorophyll‐a, diffuse attenuation coefficient, dissolved iron, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, ocean temperature, pH, phosphate, photosynthetic active radiation, total phytoplankton, total cloud fraction, salinity, silicate, sea‐water direction, sea‐water velocity, topographic slope, topographic aspect, terrain ruggedness index, topographic position index and bathymetry, and surface layers for air temperature, mixed layer depth, sea‐ice cover and sea‐ice thickness. Spatial Location and Grain: Global at 0.05° resolution. Time Period and Grain: Decadal from present‐day to the end of the 21st century (2000–2100). Major Taxa and Level of Measurement: Marine biodiversity associated with surface and epibenthic habitats. Software Format: A package of functions developed for Python and R software. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Populations of many species display spatially synchronous fluctuations in abundance. Synchrony is most commonly attributed to three processes: factors that influence recruitment (e.g., dispersal, early survival), large-scale environmental variability, and spatially autocorrelated trophic interactions. However it is often difficult to link population synchrony to a specific dominant process, particularly when multiple synchronizing forces are operating. We utilized a new satellite-based data set of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) canopy biomass to examine population synchrony in southern California kelp forests on spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 300 km and temporal scales ranging from 1 to 11 years. We examined the relationship between synchrony and distance for adult kelp populations, kelp recruits, sea urchin abundance (a major grazer of kelp), and environmental variables known to influence kelp population dynamics. Population synchrony in giant kelp decreased with distance between populations: an initial rapid exponential decrease between 50 m and 1.3 km was followed by a second, large-scale decrease between distances of 1.3 km and 172 km. The 50-m to 1.3-km spatial scale corresponded to the scales of synchrony in the abundance of sea urchins and young kelp recruits, suggesting that local drivers of predation and recruitment influence small-scale synchrony in kelp populations. The spatial correlation patterns of environmental variables, particularly wave height, were similar to the synchrony–distance relationship of kelp populations from 1.3 km to 172 km, suggesting that regional environmental variability, i.e., the Moran effect, was the dominant process affecting synchrony at larger spatial scales. This two-step pattern in the relationship between kelp biomass synchrony and distance was apparent in each of the 11 years of our study. Our results highlight the potential for synthesizing approaches from both landscape and population ecology in order to identify the multiple processes that generate synchrony in population dynamics.