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Previous research has examined how creative potential develops during childhood and has identified peaks, slumps, and bumps during maturation. However, little is known about the causes of such changes. This study employed a longitudinal approach to assess predictors of change in creative ideation over 2 years in young people (N = 76) aged 14–20 years old at the first time point. The analysis employed frequentist and Bayesian methods to evaluate the effect of individual factors, such as openness to experience (assessed using the BFI‐10 short form), and contextual factors, such as pursuing creative hobbies (measured with a leisure questionnaire). Openness at the first time point and change in openness over time predicted change in peak originality. Engagement in creative hobbies at the first time point predicted change in fluency. The findings support the contribution of individual factors, in the form of openness to experience, and contextual factors, in the form of engagement in creative hobbies, in the development of divergent thinking abilities in mid‐adolescence and young adulthood. Altogether, this study suggests that interventions aimed at increasing time spent on creative activities and promoting openness to experience may enhance divergent thinking abilities, which are essential components of creative potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]