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The relation between the intensity of chromospheric emissions and the photospheric magnetic field strength has been examined in several studies, but the effect of the magnetic field inclination on chromospheric emissions remains almost unexplored. We study how the inclination of the photospheric magnetic field, as measured by the full 3D magnetic vector from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), affects the relationship between the magnetic field strength and the far-ultraviolet emission at around 1600 {\AA} observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). We also study how these parameters change spatially close to the active region perimeter. We analyzed the mutual dependence of 1168 co-temporal AIA and HMI observations from 2014 to 2017. We focused on magnetically active regions outside sunspots (e.g., plages and network) close to the solar disk center. We studied how the AIA and HMI parameters change with distance from the active region perimeter. The AIA 1600 emission typically decreases with increasing (more horizontal) inclination. For all inclinations, AIA 1600 emission increases with increasing magnetic field strength until saturating at some peak intensity, which depends on the cosine of the inclination, with horizontal regions saturating at lower intensities. In addition, we find that activity clusters have a narrow boundary (< 2 arcseconds) in which the AIA 1600 intensity, magnetic field strength, and inclination distributions and relations differ significantly from those in the inner layers. This study demonstrates the significant effect that magnetic field inclination and activity cluster border regions have on chromospheric emissions. Although the observed effects are likely reduced in low-resolution observations where different regions are averaged together, a detailed study is needed to examine the emission--magnetic field relation at different resolutions., Comment: 13 pages, 13 figures

The open solar flux, that is, the total magnetic flux escaping the Sun, is one of the most important parameters connecting solar activity to the Earth. The open solar flux is commonly estimated from photospheric magnetic field measurements by making model assumptions about the solar corona. However, the question in which way the open solar flux is directly related to the distribution of the photospheric magnetic field is still partly unknown. We aim to reconstruct the open solar flux directly from the photospheric magnetic fields without making any assumptions about the corona and without using coronal hole observations, for instance. We modified an earlier vector sum method by taking magnetic field polarities into account and applied the method to the synoptic magnetograms of six instruments to determine the open solar flux from solar cycles 21-24. Results. The modified vector sum method produces a vector of the global solar magnetic field whose magnitude closely matches the open solar flux from the potential field source surface (PFSS) model both by the absolute scale and the overall time evolution for each of the six magnetograms. The latitude of this vector follows the Hale cycle by always pointing toward the dominantly positive-polarity hemisphere, and its longitude coincides with the location of the main coronal holes of the McIntosh Archive. We find multi-year periods during which the longitude of the vector slowly drifts or stays rather stationary in the Carrington frame. These periods are punctuated by times when the longitude moves rapidly in the Carrington frame. By comparing the magnitude of this vector to the open solar flux calculated from the PFSS model with different source surface heights, we find that the best match is produced with a source surface height $R_{ss} = 2.4 - 2.5R_\odot$., Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures, Accepted for publication in A&A

Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well described by a simple parameterized mathematical expression. We find that the parameters describing even sunspot cycles can be predicted quite accurately using the sunspot number 41 months prior to sunspot minimum as a precursor. We find that the parameters of the odd cycles can be best predicted with maximum geomagnetic aa index close to fall equinox within a 3-year window preceding the sunspot minimum. We use the found precursors to predict all previous sunspot cycles and evaluate the performance with a cross-validation methodology, which indicates that each past cycle is very accurately predicted. For the coming sunspot cycle 25 we predict an amplitude of 171 +/- 23 and the end of the cycle in September 2029 +/- 1.9 years. We are also able to make a rough prediction for cycle 26 based on the predicted cycle 25. While the uncertainty for the cycle amplitude is large we estimate that the cycle 26 will most likely be stronger than cycle 25. These results suggest an increasing trend in solar activity for the next decades., Comment: This manuscript has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate (JSWSC). An earlier version of this manuscript has been posted as a pre-print in Research Square https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-2377445/v1

We introduce the nivel2 software for multi-level modelling. Multi-level modelling is a modelling paradigm where a model element may be simultaneously a type for and an instance of other elements under some constraints. This contrasts traditional modelling methods, such as the UML, where an element may not be a class and an object simultaneously. In contrast with previous approaches to multi-level modelling, the nivel2 software utilises an industrial scale relational database for data storage and reasoning. Further, a web-based user interface is provided for viewing and editing models. The architecture enables multiple users in different roles working on the same models at various levels of abstraction at the same time.

We study the occurrence of magnetic storms in space age (1957-2021) using Dst and Dxt indices. We find 2526/2743 magnetic storms in the Dxt/Dst index, out of which 45% are weak, 40% moderate, 12% intense and 3% major storms. Occurrence of storms in space age follows the slow decrease of sunspot activity and the related change in solar magnetic structure. We quantify the sunspot - CME storm relation in the five cycles of space age. We explain how the varying solar activity changes the structure of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and how this affects the HSS/CIR storms. Space age started with a record number of storms in 1957-1960, with roughly one storm per week. Solar polar fields attained their maximum in cycle 22, which led to an exceptionally thin HCS, and a space age record of large HSS/CIR storms in 1990s. In the minimum of cycle 23, for the only time in space age, CME storm occurrence reduced below that predicted by sunspots. Weak sunspot activity since cycle 23 has weakened solar polar fields and widened the HCS, which has decreased the occurrence of large and moderate HSS/CIR storms. Because of a wide HCS, the Earth has spent 50% of its time in slow solar wind since cycle 23. The wide HCS has also made large and moderate HSS/CIR storms occur in the early declining phase in recent cycles, while in the more active cycles 20-22 they occurred in the late declining phase.

Synoptic maps of solar EUV intensities have been constructed for many decades in order to display the distribution of the different EUV emissions across the solar surface, with each map representing one Carrington rotation (i.e., one rotation of the Sun). This paper presents a new solar EUV synoptic map dataset based on full-disk images from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT) and Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA). In order to remove the significant and complicated drift of EIT and AIA EUV intensities due to sensor degradation, we construct the synoptic maps in standardized intensity scale. We describe a method of homogenizing the SOHO/EIT maps with SDO/AIA maps by transforming the EIT intensity histograms to AIA level. The new maps cover the years from 1996 to 2018 with 307 SOHO/EIT and 116 SDO/AIA synoptic maps, respectively. These maps provide a systematic and homogenous view of the entire solar surface in four EUV wavelengths, and are well suited, e.g., for studying long-term coronal hole evolution.

Coronal holes (CH) are regions of open magnetic field lines in the solar corona and the source of fast solar wind. Understanding the evolution of coronal holes is critical for solar magnetism as well as for accurate space weather forecasts. We study here the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) synoptic maps at three wavelengths (195A/193A, 171A and 304A) measured by Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT) and Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) instruments. The two datasets are first homogenized by scaling the SDO/AIA data to the SOHO/EIT level by means of histogram equalization. We then develop a novel automated method to identify CHs from these homogenized maps by determining the intensity threshold of CH regions separately for each synoptic map. This is done by identifying the best location and size of an image segment, which optimally contains portions of coronal holes and the surrounding quiet Sun allowing us to detect the momentary intensity threshold. Our method is thus able to adjust itself to the changing scale size of coronal holes and to temporally varying intensities. To make full use of the information in the three wavelengths we construct, a composite CH distribution, which is more robust than distributions based on one wavelength. Using the composite CH dataset we discuss the temporal evolution of CHs during the solar cycles 23 and 24.

In this paper, we study two sets of local geomagnetic indices from 26 stations using the principal component (PC) and the independent component (IC) analysis methods. We demonstrate that the annually averaged indices can be accurately represented as linear combinations of two first components with weights systematically depending on latitude. We show that the annual contributions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and high speed streams (HSSs) to geomagnetic activity are highly correlated with the first and second IC. The first and second ICs are also found to be very highly correlated with the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and the solar wind speed, respectively, because solar wind speed is the most important parameter driving geomagnetic activity during HSSs while IMF strength dominates during CMEs. These results help in better understanding the long-term driving of geomagnetic activity and in gaining information about the long-term evolution of solar wind parameters and the different solar wind structures.