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This deliverable describes the process of establishing global coordination for sustained observations of marine plastics litter as a new type of Essential Ocean Variable (EOV) addressing the aspect of observing human impacts on the ocean. The document reports on the EuroSea efforts to implement a community vision for an Integrated Marine Debris Observing System (IMDOS) as a new element of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). First version of the Marine Plastics Litter EOV Specification Sheet is included. Progress towards establishing common sampling protocols for marine plastic litter in Europe and beyond are described.

Early-career scientists came together recently to learn to use a suite of ocean biogeochemical sensors, with the goal of closing the knowledge gap between ocean technology and potential end users.

The eastern equatorial Pacific plays a~great role in the global carbon budget due to its enhanced biological productivity linked to the equatorial upwelling. However, as confirmed by the Equatorial Biocomplexity cruises in 2004 and 2005, nutrient upwelling supply varies strongly, partly due to the tropical instability waves (TIWs). The aim of this study was to examine patterns of spatial and temporal variability in the biological uptake of NO3, Si(OH)4 and carbon in this region, and to evaluate the role of biological and physical interactions controlling this variability over seasonal and intraseasonal time scales. Here, high resolution Pacific ROMS–CoSiNE (Regional Ocean Modeling System–Carbon, Silicon, Nitrogen Ecosystem) model results were evaluated with in situ and remote sensing data. The results of model–data comparison revealed a good agreement in domain-average hydrographic and biological rate estimates, and patterns of spatio-temporal variability in primary productivity. We confirmed that TIWs have the potential to enhance phytoplankton biomass through an increased supply of nutrients and elevated local and instantaneous phytoplankton nutrient uptake as opposed to only advecting biomass. Furthermore, we concluded that initial biological conditions (e.g., zooplankton biomass) may play an important additional constraint on biological responses, in particular of large phytoplankton such as diatoms, to TIW-induced perturbations in the physical and biogeochemical fields and fluxes. In order to fully resolve the complexity of biological and physical interactions in the eastern equatorial Pacific, we recommended improving CoSiNE and other models by introducing more phytoplankton groups, variable Redfield and carbon to chlorophyll ratios, as well as resolving the Fe–Si co-limitation of phytoplankton growth.

Achieving good environmental status in the Baltic Sea region requires decision support tools which are based on scientific knowledge across multiple disciplines. Such tools should integrate the complexity of the ecosystem and enable exploration of different natural and anthropogenic pressures such as climate change, eutrophication and fishing pressures in order to compare alternative management strategies. We present a new framework, with a Baltic implementation of the spatially-explicit end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model linked to two external models, to explore the different pressures on the marine ecosystem. The HBM-ERGOM initializes the Atlantis model with high-resolution physical-chemical-biological and hydrodynamic information while the FISHRENT model analyses the fisheries economics of the output of commercial fish biomass for the Atlantis terminal projection year. The Baltic Atlantis model composes 29 subareas, 9 vertical layers and 30 biological functional groups. The balanced calibration provides realistic levels of biomass for, among others, known stock sizes of top predators and of key fish species. Furthermore, it gives realistic levels of phytoplankton biomass and shows reasonable diet compositions and geographical distribution patterns for the functional groups. By simulating several scenarios of nutrient load reductions on the ecosystem and testing sensitivity to different fishing pressures, we show that the model is sensitive to those changes and capable of evaluating the impacts on different trophic levels, fish stocks, and fisheries associated with changed benthic oxygen conditions. We conclude that the Baltic Atlantis forms an initial basis for strategic management evaluation suited for conducting medium to long term ecosystem assessments which are of importance for a number of pan-Baltic stakeholders in relation to anthropogenic pressures such as eutrophication, climate change and fishing pressure, as well as changed biological interactions between functional groups. Achieving good environmental status in the Baltic Sea region requires decision support tools which are based on scientific knowledge across multiple disciplines. Such tools should integrate the complexity of the ecosystem and enable exploration of different natural and anthropogenic pressures such as climate change, eutrophication and fishing pressures in order to compare alternative management strategies. We present a new framework, with a Baltic implementation of the spatially-explicit end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model linked to two external models, to explore the different pressures on the marine ecosystem. The HBM-ERGOM initializes the Atlantis model with high-resolution physical-chemical-biological and hydrodynamic information while the FISHRENT model analyses the fisheries economics of the output of commercial fish biomass for the Atlantis terminal projection year. The Baltic Atlantis model composes 29 subareas, 9 vertical layers and 30 biological functional groups. The balanced calibration provides realistic levels of biomass for, among others, known stock sizes of top predators and of key fish species. Furthermore, it gives realistic levels of phytoplankton biomass and shows reasonable diet compositions and geographical distribution patterns for the functional groups. By simulating several scenarios of nutrient load reductions on the ecosystem and testing sensitivity to different fishing pressures, we show that the model is sensitive to those changes and capable of evaluating the impacts on different trophic levels, fish stocks, and fisheries associated with changed benthic oxygen conditions. We conclude that the Baltic Atlantis forms an initial basis for strategic management evaluation suited for conducting medium to long term ecosystem assessments which are of importance for a number of pan-Baltic stakeholders in relation to anthropogenic pressures such as eutrophication, climate change and fishing pressure, as well as changed biological interactions between functional groups.

Nielsen, J.R. ... et al.-- 29 pages, 8 figures, 2 tables, supporting information https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12232, Marine ecosystems evolve under many interconnected and area‐specific pressures. To fulfil society's intensifying and diversifying needs while ensuring ecologically sustainable development, more effective marine spatial planning and broader‐scope management of marine resources is necessary. Integrated ecological–economic fisheries models (IEEFMs) of marine systems are needed to evaluate impacts and sustainability of potential management actions and understand, and anticipate ecological, economic and social dynamics at a range of scales from local to national and regional. To make these models most effective, it is important to determine how model characteristics and methods of communicating results influence the model implementation, the nature of the advice that can be provided and the impact on decisions taken by managers. This article presents a global review and comparative evaluation of 35 IEEFMs applied to marine fisheries and marine ecosystem resources to identify the characteristics that determine their usefulness, effectiveness and implementation. The focus is on fully integrated models that allow for feedbacks between ecological and human processes although not all the models reviewed achieve that. Modellers must invest more time to make models user friendly and to participate in management fora where models and model results can be explained and discussed. Such involvement is beneficial to all parties, leading to improvement of mo‐dels and more effective implementation of advice, but demands substantial resources which must be built into the governance process. It takes time to develop effective processes for using IEEFMs requiring a long‐term commitment to integrating multidisciplinary modelling advice into management decision‐making

Modeling and monitoring plankton functional types (PFTs) is challenged by the insufficient amount of field measurements of ground truths in both plankton models and bio-optical algorithms. In this study, we combine remote sensing data and a dynamic plankton model to simulate an ecologically sound spatial and temporal distribution of phyto-PFTs. We apply an innovative ecological indicator approach to modeling PFTs and focus on resolving the question of diatom–coccolithophore coexistence in the subpolar high-nitrate and low-chlorophyll regions. We choose an artificial neural network as our modeling framework because it has the potential to interpret complex nonlinear interactions governing complex adaptive systems, of which marine ecosystems are a prime example. Using ecological indicators that fulfill the criteria of measurability, sensitivity and specificity, we demonstrate that our diagnostic model correctly interprets some basic ecological rules similar to ones emerging from dynamic models. Our time series highlight a dynamic phyto-PFT community composition in all high-latitude areas and indicate seasonal coexistence of diatoms and coccolithophores. This observation, though consistent with in situ and remote sensing measurements, has so far not been captured by state-of-the-art dynamic models, which struggle to resolve this "paradox of the plankton". We conclude that an ecological indicator approach is useful for ecological modeling of phytoplankton and potentially higher trophic levels. Finally, we speculate that it could serve as a powerful tool in advancing ecosystem-based management of marine resources.

For decades, fish recruitment has been a subject of intensive research with stock–recruitment models commonly used for recruitment prediction often only explaining a small fraction of the inter-annual recruitment variation. The use of environmental information to improve our ability to predict recruitment, could contribute considerably to fisheries management. However, the problem remains difficult because the mechanisms behind such complex relationships are often poorly understood; this in turn, makes it difficult to determine the forecast estimation robustness, leading to the failure of some relationships when new data become available. The utility of machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) for solving complex problems has been demonstrated in aquatic studies and has led many researchers to advocate ANNs as an attractive, non-linear alternative to traditional statistical methods. The goal of this study is to design a Baltic cod recruitment model (FishANN) that can account for complex ecosystem interactions. To this end, we (1) build a quantitative model representation of the conceptual understanding of the complex ecosystem interactions driving Baltic cod recruitment dynamics, and (2) apply the model to strengthen the current capability to project future changes in Baltic cod recruitment. FishANN is demonstrated to bring multiple stressors together into one model framework and estimate the relative importance of these stressors while interpreting the complex non-linear interactions between them. Additional requirements to further improve the current study in the future are also proposed.

The size of an individual organism is a key trait to characterize its physiology and feeding ecology. Size-based scaling laws may have a limited size range of validity or undergo a transition from one scaling exponent to another at some characteristic size. We collate and review data on size-based scaling laws for resource acquisition, mobility, sensory range, and progeny size for all pelagic marine life, from bacteria to whales. Further, we review and develop simple theoretical arguments for observed scaling laws and the characteristic sizes of a change or breakdown of power laws. We divide life in the ocean into seven major realms based on trophic strategy, physiology, and life history strategy. Such a categorization represents a move away from a taxonomically oriented description toward a trait-based description of life in the oceans. Finally, we discuss life forms that transgress the simple size-based rules and identify unanswered questions. Fil: Andersen, K. H.. Centre for Ocean Life; Dinamarca. Technical University of Denmark; Dinamarca Fil: Berger, Tobías Miguel. Centre for Ocean Life; Dinamarca. Universidad de Copenhagen; Dinamarca Fil: Gonçalves, Rodrigo Javier. Centre for Ocean Life; Dinamarca. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Technical University of Denmark; Dinamarca. Fundación Playa Unión. Estación de Fotobiología Playa Unión; Argentina Fil: Hartvig, M.. Technical University of Denmark; Dinamarca. Universidad de Copenhagen; Dinamarca. Universität Göttingen; Alemania Fil: Heuschele, J.. Technical University of Denmark; Dinamarca. Centre for Ocean Life; Dinamarca Fil: Hylander, S.. Technical University of Denmark; Dinamarca. Linnaeus University; Suiza Fil: Jacobsen, N. S.. Centre for Ocean Life; Dinamarca. Technical University of Denmark; Dinamarca Fil: Lindemann, C.. Technical University of Denmark; Dinamarca Fil: Martens, E. A.. Centre for Ocean Life; Dinamarca. Technical University of Denmark; Dinamarca. Universidad de Copenhagen; Dinamarca Fil: Neuheimer, A. B.. Technical University of Denmark; Dinamarca. Universidad de Copenhagen; Dinamarca. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos Fil: Olsson, K.. Technical University of Denmark; Dinamarca. Universidad de Copenhagen; Dinamarca Fil: Palacz, A.. Technical University of Denmark; Dinamarca Fil: Prowe, A. E. F.. Centre for Ocean Life; Dinamarca. Technical University of Denmark; Dinamarca. Geomar-Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel; Alemania Fil: Sainmont, J.. Technical University of Denmark; Dinamarca. Centre for Ocean Life; Dinamarca Fil: Traving, S. J.. Centre for Ocean Life; Dinamarca. Universidad de Copenhagen; Dinamarca Fil: Visser, A. W.. Centre for Ocean Life; Dinamarca. Technical University of Denmark; Dinamarca Fil: Wadhwa, N.. Centre for Ocean Life; Dinamarca. Technical University of Denmark; Dinamarca Fil: Kiørboe, T.. Centre for Ocean Life; Dinamarca. Technical University of Denmark; Dinamarca

This paper documents the variability in physics and nutrients during two cruises spanning 110°W to 140°W in December 2004 and September 2005. The goal of this work is to set the hydrographic framework for companion papers which quantify the role of iron, silicon and grazing in maintaining the high nitrate, low chlorophyll (HNLC) conditions in the equatorial Pacific. The two cruises were conducted almost a year apart, at different phases of the El Nino cycle, but during similarly intense tropical instability wave (TIW) seasons. The higher phytoplankton biomass observed on the 2005 cruise was due to a combination of time of year and a weakening El Nino. A general relationship between TIWs and Si cycling is described. TIWs advect the equatorial upwelling plume alternately to the north and south, and also generate localized enhanced upwelling. The distorted upwelling plume is a region of enhanced biogenic silica production and export. Away from regions of active upwelling, Si remineralization is enhanced and export is significantly reduced or absent.

Iron limitation plays an important role in maintaining the high-nitrate low-chlorophyll (HNLC) condition in the equatorial upwelling zone. The rate and depth of upwelling control Fe supply to the euphotic zone. This study constrains the transport fluxes and budget of two trace metals, Fe and Al, in the upper ocean. They are co-delivered to the eastern equatorial Pacific surface waters via the Equatorial Undercurrent and upwelling but show distinct biogeochemical cycling processes. We combine the results of the in situ measurements of dissolved Fe and Al (dFe and dAl) with the modeled velocity fields to calculate the physical fluxes. The model calculations are evaluated with the conservation of heat, volume transport, NO3 and Si(OH)4 budgets for the equatorial Pacific. The vertical flux due to upwelling provides averaged dFe and dAl supply rates of 1.45 μmol m−2 d−1 and 11.51 μmol m−2 d−1, respectively. The sum of the net physical fluxes in the eastern equatorial Pacific for dFe and dAl are 0.41 μmol m−2 d−1 and 2.77 μmol m−2 d−1, respectively. These estimates are equal to the net biological and chemical removal rates of dFe and dAl. The calculated dFe:C net removal ratio is in the range of 3-9 μmol:mol, which agrees with most other estimates. This suggests that the majority of net dFe removal is due to biological uptake in the upper water column. The results of this box model approach illustrate the usefulness of combining the modeled outputs and in situ measurements, which provide additional constraints on Fe transport and cycling in the equatorial Pacific and possibly other HNLC regions.

We present an integrated end-to-end modeling framework that enables whole-of ecosystem climate, eutrophication, and spatial management scenario exploration in the Baltic Sea. The framework is built around the Baltic implementation of the spatially-explicit end-to-end ATLANTIS model, linked to the high-resolution coupled physical-biological model HBM-ERGOM and the fisheries bio-economic FishRent model. We investigate ecosystem-wide responses to changes in human-induced pressures by simulating several eutrophication scenarios that are relevant to existing Baltic Sea management plans (e.g. EU BSAP, EU CFP). We further present the structure and calibration of the Baltic ATLANTIS model and the operational linkage to the other models. Using the results of eutrophication scenarios, and focusing on the relative changes in fish and fishery production, we discuss the robustness of the model linking with respect to the underlying assumptions, strengths and weaknesses of individual models. Furthermore, we describe how to possibly expand the framework to account for spatial impacts and economic consequences, for instance by linking to the individual-vessel based DISPLACE modeling approach. We conclude that the proposed model integration and management scenario evaluation scheme lays the foundations for developing a robust framework for management strategy evaluation that is of strategic importance to stakeholders from around the Baltic Sea.

[1] The Hilbert-Huang Transform was applied to the satellite-derived monthly surface chlorophyll-a data and monthly blended satellite wind products from September 1997 to April 2010 to examine temporal trends in these time series. Using this new approach, we found an overall increasing trend in both the surface chlorophyll-a concentration and surface wind speed averaged over the entire South China Sea. Chlorophyll-a concentration increased by 12% between September 1997 and September 2003, and then decreased by 3% by April 2010. Wind speed increased by 21% between September 1997 and December 2005, but then decreased by 11%. The increasing trends followed by a period of decrease in both chlorophyll-a and wind speed time series are likely driven by the El Nino Southern Oscillation signal. The biggest change occurred in the deep basin region where the area averaged chlorophyll-a concentration increased by 20% between 1997 and 2010. This trend was primarily attributed to a 19% increase of the surface area of waters with monthly averaged chlorophyll-a concentration greater than 0.2 mg m −3, called the high chlorophyll waters. The most pronounced change occurred in winter with the high chlorophyll surface area expanding from 56 to 64% of the South China Sea. Strong correlation between chlorophyll-a and wind speed in this region suggested that it is the enhanced wind-induced mixing in the winter that stimulates phytoplankton growth via increased vertical supply of nutrients. The obtained 13-year trends indicate that the physical-biological interactions also take place on inter-annual time scales in the South China Sea.

[1] Mesoscale anticyclonic Haida eddies are proposed to deliver a substantial amount of iron into the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) central gyre, where surface waters experience high-nitrate low-chlorophyll conditions. In this study we calculate an averaged upwelling flux of dissolved iron into the euphotic zone (100 m) of 1.17 μmol m−2 d−1 based on observed iron profiles and modeled eddy dynamics and resultant vertical velocities. This estimated eddy-derived iron supply rate is comparable with new estimates of pulsed iron fertilization rates from rare volcanic ash deposition events. Despite the relatively small area affected by Haida eddies, they are estimated to contribute about 4.6 × 106 moles of dissolved iron yearly to the GOA, which is equivalent to the annual atmospheric dust deposition. Haida eddies therefore represent a major iron source that should strongly influence the regional biological productivity and carbon budget of the GOA.

If climate services are to lead to effective use of climate information in decision-making to enable the transition to a climate-smart, climate-ready world, then the question of trust in the products and services is of paramount importance. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has been actively grappling with how to build such trust: provision of demonstrably independent assessments of the quality of products, which was deemed an important element in such trust-building processes. C3S provides access to essential climate variables (ECVs) from multiple sources to a broad set of users ranging from scientists to private companies and decision-makers. Here we outline the approach undertaken to coherently assess the quality of a suite of observation- and reanalysis-based ECV products covering the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryosphere. The assessment is based on four pillars: basic data checks, maturity of the datasets, fitness for purpose (scientific use cases and climate studies), and guidance to users. It is undertaken independently by scientific experts and presented alongside the datasets in a fully traceable, replicable, and transparent manner. The methodology deployed is detailed, and example assessments are given. These independent scientific quality assessments are intended to guide users to ensure they use tools and datasets that are fit for purpose to answer their specific needs rather than simply use the first product they alight on. This is the first such effort to develop and apply an assessment framework consistently to all ECVs. Lessons learned and future perspectives are outlined to potentially improve future assessment activities and thus climate services., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103 (9), ISSN:0003-0007, ISSN:1520-0477