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3. Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods

Author

Blöschl, Günter, Hall, Julia, Viglione, Alberto, Perdigão, Rui A. P., Parajka, Juraj, Merz, Bruno, Lun, David, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe T., Bilibashi, Ardian, Boháč, Miloň, Bonacci, Ognjen, Borga, Marco, Čanjevac, Ivan, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B., Claps, Pierluigi, Frolova, Natalia, Ganora, Daniele, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Gül, Ali, Hannaford, Jamie, Harrigan, Shaun, Kireeva, Maria, Kiss, Andrea, Kjeldsen, Thomas R., Kohnová, Silvia, Koskela, Jarkko J., Ledvinka, Ondrej, Macdonald, Neil, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Mediero, Luis, Merz, Ralf, Molnar, Peter, Montanari, Alberto, Murphy, Conor, Osuch, Marzena, Ovcharuk, Valeryia, Radevski, Ivan, Salinas, José L., Sauquet, Eric, Šraj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Volpi, Elena, Wilson, Donna, Zaimi, Klodian, and Živković, Nenad

Published
2019
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4. Changing climate shifts timing of European floods

Author

Blöschl, Günter, Hall, Julia, Parajka, Juraj, Perdigão, Rui A. P., Merz, Bruno, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe T., Bilibashi, Ardian, Bonacci, Ognjen, Borga, Marco, Čanjevac, Ivan, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B., Claps, Pierluigi, Fiala, Károly, Frolova, Natalia, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Gül, Ali, Hannaford, Jamie, Harrigan, Shaun, Kireeva, Maria, Kiss, Andrea, Kjeldsen, Thomas R., Kohnová, Silvia, Koskela, Jarkko J., Ledvinka, Ondrej, Macdonald, Neil, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Mediero, Luis, Merz, Ralf, Molnar, Peter, Montanari, Alberto, Murphy, Conor, Osuch, Marzena, Ovcharuk, Valeryia, Radevski, Ivan, Rogger, Magdalena, Salinas, José L., Sauquet, Eric, Šraj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Viglione, Alberto, Volpi, Elena, Wilson, Donna, Zaimi, Klodian, and Živković, Nenad

Published
2017

9. A Comparative Study Of Two Flood-Prone Communities Against River Flooding: Berat (Albania) And Sarajevo (Bosnia)

Author

Binesh, Negin, primary, Aronica, Giuseppe T., additional, Hadzic, Emina, additional, Mujić, Fehad, additional, Deda, Miranda, additional, Rossello, Laura, additional, Koxhai, Halim, additional, Gabellani, Simone, additional, Masi, Rocco, additional, Viavattene, Christophe, additional, McCarthy, Simon, additional, and Brigandi, Giuseppina, additional

Published
2022
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10. A novel approach to flood risk assessment: the Exposure-Vulnerability matrices

Author

Naso Susanna, Chen Albert S., Aronica Giuseppe T., and Djordjević Slobodan

Subjects
Environmental sciences, GE1-350
Abstract

The classical approach to flood defence, focused on reducing the probability of flooding through hard defences, has been gradually substituted by flood risk management approach, which accepts the idea of coping with floods, and aims at reducing both probability and the consequences of flooding. In this view, the concept of vulnerability becomes central, such as the (non-structural) measures for its increment. However, the evaluations for the effectiveness and methods of non-structural measure and the vulnerability are less studied, compared to the structural solutions. In this paper, we adopted the Longano catchment in Sicily, Italy, as the case study. The methodology developed in the work enabled a qualitative evaluation of the consequences of floods, based on a crisscross analysis of vulnerability curves and classes of exposure for assets at risk. A GIS-based tool was used to evaluate each element at risk inside an Exposure-Vulnerability matrix. The construction of an E-V matrix allowed a better understanding of the actual situation within a catchment and the effectiveness of non-structural measures for a site. Referring directly to vulnerability can also estimate the possible consequences of an event even in those catchments where the damage data are absent. The instrument proposed can be useful for authorities responsible for development and periodical review of adaptive flood risk management plans.

Published
2016
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11. Analytic Back Calculation of Debris Flow Damage Incurred to a Masonry Building: The Case of Scaletta Zanclea 2009 Event

Author

Soleimankhani Hossein, Carozza Stefano, Aronica Giuseppe T., Jalayer Fatemeh, and Recupero Antonino

Subjects
Environmental sciences, GE1-350
Abstract

In an attempt to do a back analysis of the damages caused to a nineteenth century masonry structure due to the October 2009 flash flood/debris flow event in Scaletta Zanclea, the flood discharge hydrograph is reconstructed in the ungauged conditions. The hydrograph for the solid discharge is then estimated by scaling up the liquid volume to the estimated debris volume. The debris flow diffusion is simulated by solving the differential equations for a single-phase 2D flow employing triangular mesh elements, taking into account also the channelling of the flow through the buildings. The damage to the building is modelled, based on the maximum hydraulic actions caused by the debris flow, using 2D finite shell elements to model the building, boundary conditions provided by the openings, floor slab, orthogonal wall panels, and the foundation. The reconstruction of the event and the damages to the case-study building confirms the location of the damages induced by the event.

Published
2016
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12. Validation of flood risk models: Current practice and possible improvements

Author

Deltares, European Geosciences Union, Ministerio de Economía y Empresa, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Molinari, Daniela, De Bruijn, Karin M., Castillo-Rodríguez, J.T., Aronica, Giuseppe T., Bouwer, Laurens M., Deltares, European Geosciences Union, Ministerio de Economía y Empresa, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Molinari, Daniela, De Bruijn, Karin M., Castillo-Rodríguez, J.T., Aronica, Giuseppe T., and Bouwer, Laurens M.

Abstract

[EN] Although often neglected, model validation is a key topic in flood risk analysis, as flood risk estimates are used to underpin large investments and important decisions. In this paper, we discuss the state of the art of flood risk model validation, using as input the discussion among more than 50 experts at two scientific workshop events. The events aimed at identifying policy and research recommendations towards promoting more common practice of validation, and an improvement of flood risk model reliability. We pay specific attention to different components of the risk modelling chain (i.e. flood hazard, defence failure, and flood damage analysis) as well as to their role in risk estimates, to highlight specificities and commonalities with respect to implemented techniques and research needs. The main conclusions from this analysis can be summarised as the need of higher quality data to perform validation and of benchmark solutions to be followed in different contexts, along with a greater involvement of end-users in the application on flood risk model validation.

Published
2019

13. Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods

Author

Bloeschl, Guenter, Bloeschl, Guenter, Hall, Julia, Viglione, Alberto, Perdigao, Rui A. P., Parajka, Juraj, Merz, Bruno, Lun, David, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe T., Bilibashi, Ardian, Bohac, Milon, Bonacci, Ognjen, Borga, Marco, Canjevac, Ivan, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B., Claps, Pierluigi, Frolova, Natalia, Ganora, Daniele, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Gul, Ali, Hannaford, Jamie, Harrigan, Shaun, Kireeva, Maria, Kiss, Andrea, Kjeldsen, Thomas R., Kohnova, Silvia, Koskela, Jarkko J., Ledvinka, Ondrej, Macdonald, Neil, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Mediero, Luis, Merz, Ralf, Molnar, Peter, Montanari, Alberto, Murphy, Conor, Osuch, Marzena, Ovcharuk, Valeryia, Radevski, Ivan, Salinas, Jose L., Sauquet, Eric, Sraj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Volpi, Elena, Wilson, Donna, Zaimi, Klodian, Živković, Nenad, Bloeschl, Guenter, Bloeschl, Guenter, Hall, Julia, Viglione, Alberto, Perdigao, Rui A. P., Parajka, Juraj, Merz, Bruno, Lun, David, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe T., Bilibashi, Ardian, Bohac, Milon, Bonacci, Ognjen, Borga, Marco, Canjevac, Ivan, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B., Claps, Pierluigi, Frolova, Natalia, Ganora, Daniele, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Gul, Ali, Hannaford, Jamie, Harrigan, Shaun, Kireeva, Maria, Kiss, Andrea, Kjeldsen, Thomas R., Kohnova, Silvia, Koskela, Jarkko J., Ledvinka, Ondrej, Macdonald, Neil, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Mediero, Luis, Merz, Ralf, Molnar, Peter, Montanari, Alberto, Murphy, Conor, Osuch, Marzena, Ovcharuk, Valeryia, Radevski, Ivan, Salinas, Jose L., Sauquet, Eric, Sraj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Volpi, Elena, Wilson, Donna, Zaimi, Klodian, and Živković, Nenad

Abstract

Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere(1). These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe(2). Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe(3), because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century(4,5), suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.

Published
2019

15. Adaptation to flood risk - results of international paired flood event studies

Author

Kreibich, Heidi, Baldassarre, Giuliano di, Vorogushyn, Sergiy, Aerts, Jeroen, Apel, Heiko, Aronica, Giuseppe T., Arnbjerg‐, Nielsen, Karsten, Bouwer, Laurens M., Bubeck, Philip, Caloiero, Tommaso, Chinh, Do T., Cortés Simó, Maria, Gain, Animesh K., Giampá, Vincenzo, Kuhlicke, Christian, Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W., Llasat Botija, María del Carmen, Mård, Johanna, Matczak, Piotr, Mazzoleni, Maurizio, Molinari, Daniela, Dung, Nguyen V., Petrucci, Olga, Schröter, Kai, Slager, Kymo, Thieken, Annegret H., Ward, Philip J., Merz, Bruno, and Universitat de Barcelona

Subjects
Rain and rainfall, Hidrologia, Inundacions, Hydrology, Floods, Pluja
Abstract

As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socioeconomic and hydro‐climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur.

Published
2017

16. Changing climate shifts timing of European floods

Author

Bloeschl, Guenter, Bloeschl, Guenter, Hall, Julia, Parajka, Juraj, Perdigao, Rui A. P., Merz, Bruno, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe T., Bilibashi, Ardian, Bonacci, Ognjen, Borga, Marco, Canjevac, Ivan, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B., Claps, Pierluigi, Fiala, Kayroly, Frolova, Natalia, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Gul, Ali, Hannaford, Jamie, Harrigan, Shaun, Kireeva, Maria, Kiss, Andrea, Kjeldsen, Thomas R., Kohnova, Silvia, Koskela, Jarkko J., Ledvinka, Ondrej, Macdonald, Neil, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Mediero, Luis, Merz, Ralf, Molnar, Peter, Montanari, Alberto, Murphy, Conor, Osuch, Marzena, Ovcharuk, Valeryia, Radevski, Ivan, Rogger, Magdalena, Salinas, Jose L., Sauquet, Eric, Sraj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Viglione, Alberto, Volpi, Elena, Wilson, Donna, Zaimi, Klodian, Živković, Nenad, Bloeschl, Guenter, Bloeschl, Guenter, Hall, Julia, Parajka, Juraj, Perdigao, Rui A. P., Merz, Bruno, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe T., Bilibashi, Ardian, Bonacci, Ognjen, Borga, Marco, Canjevac, Ivan, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B., Claps, Pierluigi, Fiala, Kayroly, Frolova, Natalia, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Gul, Ali, Hannaford, Jamie, Harrigan, Shaun, Kireeva, Maria, Kiss, Andrea, Kjeldsen, Thomas R., Kohnova, Silvia, Koskela, Jarkko J., Ledvinka, Ondrej, Macdonald, Neil, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Mediero, Luis, Merz, Ralf, Molnar, Peter, Montanari, Alberto, Murphy, Conor, Osuch, Marzena, Ovcharuk, Valeryia, Radevski, Ivan, Rogger, Magdalena, Salinas, Jose L., Sauquet, Eric, Sraj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Viglione, Alberto, Volpi, Elena, Wilson, Donna, Zaimi, Klodian, and Živković, Nenad

Abstract

A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.

Published
2017

17. Adaptation to flood risk: Results of international paired flood event studies

Author

Kreibich, Heidi, primary, Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, additional, Vorogushyn, Sergiy, additional, Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H., additional, Apel, Heiko, additional, Aronica, Giuseppe T., additional, Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten, additional, Bouwer, Laurens M., additional, Bubeck, Philip, additional, Caloiero, Tommaso, additional, Chinh, Do T., additional, Cortès, Maria, additional, Gain, Animesh K., additional, Giampá, Vincenzo, additional, Kuhlicke, Christian, additional, Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W., additional, Llasat, Maria Carmen, additional, Mård, Johanna, additional, Matczak, Piotr, additional, Mazzoleni, Maurizio, additional, Molinari, Daniela, additional, Dung, Nguyen V., additional, Petrucci, Olga, additional, Schröter, Kai, additional, Slager, Kymo, additional, Thieken, Annegret H., additional, Ward, Philip J., additional, and Merz, Bruno, additional

Published
2017
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23. The Drought Variability Based on Continuous Days without Available Precipitation in Guizhou Province, Southwest China.

Author

Qin, N.X., Wang, J.N., Hong, Y., Lu, Q.Q., Huang, J.L., Liu, M.H., Gao, L., Loukas, Athanasios, Aronica, Giuseppe T., and Llasat, María Carmen

Subjects
DROUGHTS, DROUGHT management, PROVINCES, SUMMER
Abstract

Detecting the characteristics and variability of droughts is of crucial importance. In this study, Guizhou Province in China is selected as the target area, and the dataset there covering daily precipitation and drought records from 1960 to 2016 is adopted. The spatial and temporal differences in yearly and seasonal Dnp (the drought indicator of continuous days without available precipitation) values and longest Dnp as well as their trends are examined. Then the Dnp values and droughts are classified into different categories, and the relationships between Dnp and droughts are revealed. There was a steep increasing trend in yearly Dnp with a rate of 6 d/10a, and the Mann–Kendall (MK) value was estimated to be 5.05 in the past 56 years. The seasonal Dnp values showed significant increasing trends. Yearly and seasonal Dnp varied significantly in the space domain. There were slight increases in yearly and four seasonal longest Dnp values in the time domain. Although the increases in the spring and summer were not significant, heavy droughts tended to occur at this time. As to the Dnp values corresponding to different levels of droughts, there was only a decrease in mild drought, while there were significant increases in mild, moderate, and heavy droughts. The mild droughts increased significantly in summer, and the moderate droughts increased significantly in spring. Different levels of Dnp also varied in the spatial domain. The elevation effect is not obvious in Guizhou province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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24. An Operational High-Performance Forecasting System for City-Scale Pluvial Flash Floods in the Southwestern Plain Areas of Taiwan.

Author

Chang, Tzu-Yin, Chen, Hongey, Fu, Huei-Shuin, Chen, Wei-Bo, Yu, Yi-Chiang, Su, Wen-Ray, Lin, Lee-Yaw, and Aronica, Giuseppe T.

Subjects
FLOOD warning systems, TYPHOONS, WEATHER forecasting, NATURAL disasters, FORECASTING, SEVERE storms, METEOROLOGICAL research
Abstract

A pluvial flash flood is rapid flooding induced by intense rainfall associated with a severe weather system, such as thunderstorms or typhoons. Additionally, topography, ground cover, and soil conditions also account for the occurrence of pluvial flash floods. Pluvial flash floods are among the most devastating natural disasters that occur in Taiwan, and these floods always /occur within a few minutes or hours of excessive rainfall. Pluvial flash floods usually threaten large plain areas with high population densities; therefore, there is a great need to implement an operational high-performance forecasting system for pluvial flash flood mitigation and evacuation decisions. This study developed a high-performance two-dimensional hydrodynamic model based on the finite-element method and unstructured grids. The operational high-performance forecasting system is composed of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, and a map-oriented visualization tool. The forecasting system employs digital elevation data with a 1-m resolution to simulate city-scale pluvial flash floods. The extent of flooding during historical inundation events derived from the forecasting system agrees well with the surveyed data for plain areas in southwestern Taiwan. The entire process of the operational high-performance forecasting system prediction of pluvial flash floods in the subsequent 24 h is accomplished within 8–10 min, and forecasts are updated every six hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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25. A European Flood Database: facilitating comprehensive flood research beyond administrative boundaries

Author

Hall, Julia, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe T., Bilibashi, Ardian, Bohac, M., Bonacci, Ognjen, Borga, M., Burlando, Paolo, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B., Claps, Pierluigi, Fiala, Károly, Gaál, Ladislav, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Gül, Ali, Hannaford, Jamie, Kiss, Andrea, Kjeldsen, Thomas R., Kohnová, Silvia, Koskela, Jarkko J., Macdonald, Neil, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Ledvinka, Ondrej, Mediero, Luis, Merz, Bruno, Merz, Ralf, Molnar, Peter, Montanari, Alberto, Osuch, Marzena, Parajka, Juraj, Perdigão, Rui A.P., Radevski, Ivan, Renard, Benjamin, Rogger, Magdalena, Salinas, José L., Sauquet, Éric, Šraj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Viglione, Alberto, Volpi, Elena, Wilson, Donna, Zaimi, Klodian, and Blöschl, Günter

Subjects
13. Climate action
Abstract

The current work addresses one of the key building blocks towards an improved understanding of flood processes and associated changes in flood characteristics and regimes in Europe: the development of a comprehensive, extensive European flood database. The presented work results from ongoing cross-border research collaborations initiated with data collection and joint interpretation in mind. A detailed account of the current state, characteristics and spatial and temporal coverage of the European Flood Database, is presented. At this stage, the hydrological data collection is still growing and consists at this time of annual maximum and daily mean discharge series, from over 7000 hydrometric stations of various data series lengths. Moreover, the database currently comprises data from over 50 different data sources. The time series have been obtained from different national and regional data sources in a collaborative effort of a joint European flood research agreement based on the exchange of data, models and expertise, and from existing international data collections and open source websites. These ongoing efforts are contributing to advancing the understanding of regional flood processes beyond individual country boundaries and to a more coherent flood research in Europe., Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 370, ISSN:2199-899X, ISSN:2199-8981, Changes in Flood Risk and Perception in Catchments and Cities

26. Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods

Author

Ralf Merz, Maria Kireeva, Ardian Bilibashi, Marzena Osuch, Günter Blöschl, Jose Luis Salinas, Andrea Kiss, Thomas Kjeldsen, Attilio Castellarin, David Lun, Julia Hall, Conor Murphy, Neil Macdonald, Jamie Hannaford, Mojca Šraj, Alberto Montanari, Ján Szolgay, Klodian Zaimi, Ivan Radevski, Eric Sauquet, Valeryia Ovcharuk, Juraj Parajka, Daniele Ganora, Peter Molnar, Alberto Viglione, Donna Wilson, Silvia Kohnová, Liudmyla Gorbachova, Elena Volpi, Nenad Živković, Marco Borga, Pierluigi Claps, Berit Arheimer, Jarkko J. Koskela, Shaun Harrigan, Ondrej Ledvinka, Maria Mavrova-Guirguinova, Giovanni Battista Chirico, Ognjen Bonacci, Giuseppe Tito Aronica, Rui A. P. Perdigão, Luis Mediero, Ivan Čanjevac, Bruno Merz, Ali Gül, Miloň Boháč, Natalia Frolova, Bloschl G., Hall J., Viglione A., Perdigao R.A.P., Parajka J., Merz B., Lun D., Arheimer B., Aronica G.T., Bilibashi A., Bohac M., Bonacci O., Borga M., Canjevac I., Castellarin A., Chirico G.B., Claps P., Frolova N., Ganora D., Gorbachova L., Gul A., Hannaford J., Harrigan S., Kireeva M., Kiss A., Kjeldsen T.R., Kohnova S., Koskela J.J., Ledvinka O., Macdonald N., Mavrova-Guirguinova M., Mediero L., Merz R., Molnar P., Montanari A., Murphy C., Osuch M., Ovcharuk V., Radevski I., Salinas J.L., Sauquet E., Sraj M., Szolgay J., Volpi E., Wilson D., Zaimi K., Zivkovic N., Bloschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigao, R. A. P., Parajka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., Bohac, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Canjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G. B., Claps, P., Frolova, N., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Gul, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kohnova, S., Koskela, J. J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet, E., Sraj, M., Szolgay, J., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., Zivkovic, N., INSTITUTE OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITAT WIEN AUT, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHY UNIVERSITY OF BELGRADE SRB, DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT LAND AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING POLITECNICO DI TORINO TURIN ITA, HELMHOLTZ CENTRE POTSDAM GFZ GERMAN RESEARCH CENTRE FOR GEOSCIENCES POTSDAM DEU, DEPARTMENT OF ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF MESSINA ITA, CZECH HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE PRAGUE CZE, FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING ARCHITECTURE AND GEODESY SPLIT UNIVERSITY HRV, DEPARTMENT OF LAND ENVIRONMENT AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY UNIVERSITY OF PADOVA ITA 11, University of Zagreb, DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL CHEMICAL ENVIRONMENTAL AND MATERIALS ENGINEERING UNIVERSITA DI BOLOGNA ITA, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF NAPLES FEDERICO II ITA, DEPARTMENT OF LAND HYDROLOGY LOMONOSOV MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY MOSCOW RUS, DEPARTMENT OF HYDROLOGICAL RESEARCH UKRAINIAN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE KIEV UKR, DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING DOKUZ EYLUL UNIVERSITY IZMIR TUR, CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY WALLINGFORD GBR, FORECAST DEPARTMENT EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS READING GBR, DEPARTMENT OF ARCHITECTURE AND CIVIL ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF BATH GBR, DEPARTMENT OF LAND AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING SLOVAK UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY IN BRATISLAVA SVK, CSE CONTROL SYSTEMS ENGINEER RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS AND TECHNOLOGY TIRANA ALB, FINNISH ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE HELSINKI FIN, DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND PLANNING UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL GBR, INSTITUTE OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL GBR, UNIVERSITY OF ARCHITECTURE CIVIL ENGINEERING AND GEODESY SOFIA BGR, DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING HYDRAULIC ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT UNIVERSIDAD POLITECNICA DE MADRID ESP, DEPARTMENT FOR CATCHMENT HYDROLOGY HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH HALLE DEU, INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING ETH ZURICH CHE, IRISH CLIMATE ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH UNITS DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY MAYNOOTH UNIVERSITY IRL, DEPARTMENT OF HYDROLOGY AND HYDRODYNAMICS INSTITUTE OF GEOPHYSICS POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES WARSAW POL, HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE ODESSA STATE ENVIRONMENTAL UNIVERSITY ODESSA UKR., RiverLy (UR Riverly), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), FACULTY OF CIVIL AND GEODETIC ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF LJUBLJANA SVN, Department of Engineering [Roma], Roma Tre University, NORWEGIAN WATER RESOURCES AND ENERGY DIRECTORATE OSLO NOR, INSTITUTE OF GEOSCIENCES ENERGY WATER AND ENVIRONMENT POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY OF TIRANA ALB, Blöschl, Günter, Hall, Julia, Viglione, Alberto, Perdigão, Rui A P, Parajka, Juraj, Merz, Bruno, Lun, David, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe T, Bilibashi, Ardian, Boháč, Miloň, Bonacci, Ognjen, Borga, Marco, Čanjevac, Ivan, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B, Claps, Pierluigi, Frolova, Natalia, Ganora, Daniele, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Gül, Ali, Hannaford, Jamie, Harrigan, Shaun, Kireeva, Maria, Kiss, Andrea, Kjeldsen, Thomas R, Kohnová, Silvia, Koskela, Jarkko J, Ledvinka, Ondrej, Macdonald, Neil, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Mediero, Lui, Merz, Ralf, Molnar, Peter, Montanari, Alberto, Murphy, Conor, Osuch, Marzena, Ovcharuk, Valeryia, Radevski, Ivan, Salinas, José L, Sauquet, Eric, Šraj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Volpi, Elena, Wilson, Donna, Zaimi, Klodian, and Živković, Nenad

Subjects
History, Time Factors, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Rain, Geographic Mapping, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, SDG 13 - Climate Action, 020701 environmental engineering, Multidisciplinary, Flooding (psychology), food and beverages, 21st Century, 6. Clean water, Europe, 20th Century, VARIABILITY, Climate Change, Floods, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century, Seasons, Rivers, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, population characteristics, geographic locations, 0207 environmental engineering, Climate change, River floods, FREQUENCY, TERM, Hydrology (agriculture), parasitic diseases, medicine, Precipitation, General, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Flood myth, fungi, Seasonality, medicine.disease, Climate change, river flood discharge, Europe, risk management, flooding, climate change, SEASONALITY, 13. Climate action, Snowmelt, Environmental science, Climate model, Physical geography
Abstract

Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere1. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe2. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe3, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results—arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far—suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century4,5, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management. Analysis of a comprehensive European flood dataset reveals regional changes in river flood discharges in the past five decades that are consistent with models suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening.

Published
2019

27. Flood hazard and risk modelling framework for ungauged streams and watersheds

Author

Λουκάς, Αθανάσιος, Μυλόπουλος, Νικήτας, Μάρης, Φώτιος Π., Τσακίρης, Γεώργιος, Καρατζάς, Γεώργιος, Φαρσιρώτου, Ευαγγελία, and Aronica, Giuseppe T.

Subjects
Γεωγραφικά συστήματα πληροφοριών (GIS), Ποταμοί -- Πλημμύρες -- Επικινδυνότητα -- Εκτίμησεις, Προσομοίωση, Μέθοδοί της, Χείμαροι -- Ελλάδα -- Μαγνησία, Απορροή (Υδρολογία) -- Μαθηματικά μοντέλα, Πλημμύρες -- Ελλάδα -- Μαγνησία
Published
2017

28. Probabilistic sizing of flood reservoir using univariate and multivariate (copula) approach in Barcelona Pozzo di Gotto, Sicily

Author

Λουκάς, Αθανάσιος and Aronica, Giuseppe T.

Subjects
ΜΕΘΟΔΟΣ ΠΕΠΕΡΑΣΜΕΝΩΝ ΣΤΟΙΧΕΙΩΝ, ΠΛΗΜΜΥΡΕΣ -- ΠΡΟΒΛΕΨΕΙΣ -- ΜΑΘΗΜΑΤΙΚΑ ΜΟΝΤΕΛΑ
Abstract

Σημείωση: η ηλεκτρονική έκδοση για λόγους διαχείρισης μεγέθους έχει διασπαστεί σε πάνω από ένα τόμους/αρχεία. Παρακαλούμε, κατεβάστε πρώτα όλα τα αρχεία, διατηρώντας τα στην ίδια τοποθεσία, και αποσυμπιέστε μόνο το αρχείο με την κατάληξη .zip

Published
2013
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