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Background: Travel restrictions and border controls were used extensively during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the processes for making robust evidence-based risk assessments of source countries to inform border control policies was in many cases very limited. Methods: Between April 2020 and February 2022, all international arrivals to New Zealand were required to spend 14 days in government-managed quarantine facilities and were tested at least twice. The infection rates among arrivals in the years 2020, 2021 and 2022 were respectively 6.3, 9.4 and 90.0 cases per thousand arrivals (487, 1064 and 1496 cases). Test results for all arrivals were linked with travel history, providing a large and comprehensive dataset on the number of SARS-CoV-2-positive and negative travellers from different countries over time. We developed a statistical model to predict the country-level infection risk based on infection rates among recent arrivals and reported cases in the country of origin. The model incorporates a country-level random effect to allow for the differences between the infection risk of the population of each country and that of travellers to New Zealand. A time dependent auto-regressive component of the model allows for short term correlation in infection rates. Results: A model selection and checking exercise found that the model was robust and reliable for forecasting arrival risk for 2 weeks ahead. We used the model to forecast the number of infected arrivals in future weeks and categorised countries according to their risk level. The model was implemented in R and was used by the New Zealand Ministry of Health to help inform border control policy during 2021. Conclusions: A robust and practical forecasting tool was developed for forecasting infection risk among arriving passengers during a period of controlled borders during the COVID-19 pandemic. The model uses historical infection rates among arrivals and current infection rates in the source country to make separate risk predictions for arrivals from each country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Where did the Russian Cossack soldiers fighting in Ukraine come from? How can we explain that there are now 27,000 combatants who identify with this label? This article examines the commandeering of the Cossack legacy by the Russian state. The “authentic” Cossack movement in the early 1990s, has been commandeered by forces within the Russian government. We argue that the model of the new movement was pioneered first in Krasnodar and Rostov before spreading to the whole country. We make this argument through the analysis of an original database, metadata, and proxy of Cossack vigilante patrols. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The environmental or habitat attributes that help to explain an endangered species' occurrence, geographic range and abundance are essential for identifying effective conservation measures to protect and maintain the species. Using binary logistic regression and geographic information system (GIS) techniques, a local species distribution model (LSDM) was devised for the endangered Mission Blue butterfly, Icaricia icarioides missionensis, at the 9,316 ha San Francisco Peninsula Watershed located in San Mateo County, CA. Due to the butterfly's close association with its larval foodplants, three perennial Lupinus (Fabaceae) taxa, these foodplants were used as a surrogate to predict previously undiscovered locations where not only the foodplants but also the Mission Blue might be found. Three environmental attributes, vegetation, soil, and geology types were identified using digital GIS data layers for 22 known foodplant locations from the northern portion of the watershed. A single logistic regression analysis determined specific vegetation, soil, and geology types that were the best predictors for occurrence of the butterfly's larval foodplants. Lupinus were strongly associated (p <0.05) with seven vegetation types (California annual grassland, Baccharis pilularis-Ceanothus thyrsiflorus scrub, B. pilularis-Nassella pulchra, B. pilularis-non-native grassland, B. pilularis-Toxicodendron diversilobium scrub, disturbed, plus roads and shoulders), six soil types (Barnabe-Candlestick complex, Candlestick-Krom-Buriburi complex, Candlestick variant loam, Fagan loam, and Miramar coarse sandy loam), and eight geology types (artificial fill, Greenstone, Sandstone, sheared rock, Granitic rocks of Montara Mountain, alluvial fan and fluvial deposits, Santa Clara formation, and Serpentinite). The GIS analyses identified 1,823 target areas, measuring 2,149 ha or 25.2% of uplands scattered throughout the watershed, which shared the same combinations of the environmental attributes that characterize known foodplant locations. Furthermore, the top target areas are combinations of the aforementioned vegetation, soil, and geology types that the logistic regression analyses confirmed were the best predictors of potential foodplant occurrence. Although the top 10 combinations of these environmental attributes included only 9.5% (205 ha) of the entire target area they included 73.6% of the total foodplant area. Using information from our initial findings and adding to it in subsequent years, our field surveys ultimately identified 119 new foodplant locations with Mission Blue also observed at 61 (51.3%). Overall, Mission Blue adults were observed at 71 (50.4%) of the 141 total foodplant locations in the watershed. All 141 foodplant locations lie within the target areas. The collective area of lupine was a mere 3.45 ha, which represents < 0.04% of uplands and 1.6% of the target areas at the watershed. Even though all portions of the watershed were surveyed, due to the scarcity of Lupinus throughout the entire watershed and small area of the vast majority of lupine patches, the LSDM proved to be extremely helpful in identifying where to focus our field surveys to search for new foodplant locations. In addition, transect counts conducted throughout the entire adult flight season were used to estimate population numbers of the butterfly along a 5.3 km stretch of an unpaved service road in the northern portion of the watershed. On this stretch of service road the estimated annual adult generation size ranged from 94 to 289 (x̄ = 192.8 ± 65.7) butterflies over a 12-year period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For phase transformations within polycrystalline materials, the connection between the crystal orientations of parent grains and those of child grains is usually expressed in terms of (theoretical or measured) orientation relationships. This paper introduces a new approach to various problems associated with orientation relationships: (i) estimation, (ii) whether or not a single orientation relationship fits the data adequately, (iii) whether or not a set of children comes from a common parent, and (iv) reconstruction of a parent or of grain boundaries. The approach is an extension to the crystallographic context of the well established embedding approach to directional statistics. It is inherently statistical, producing precise probabilistic statements. Explicit coordinate systems are not used and arbitrary thresholds are avoided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the evolving relationship between China and CARICOM countries. It discusses how China has been using regional soft power to influence educational mobility. It speaks to the tensions inherent in debt diplomacy and educational mobility as economic and political regional integration (Caribbean exceptionalism) is engendered. As China pursues bilateral relations under South-South Cooperation rather than multilateral relations through CARICOM, we argue that China uses soft power through infrastructural loans and scholarships to influence regional educational policy. It concludes by suggesting that a common bilateral China-CARICOM policy of economic and political engagement is preferable for all CARICOM states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A species distribution model (SDM) was developed for the endangered Smith's Blue butterfly, Euphilotes enoptes smithi (Lycaenidae), to predict target areas where it might be found in the rugged Santa Lucia Mountains that extend for 230 km along the Big Sur coast in Monterey County, CA. Field surveys identified 1,506 locations of the butterfly's larval foodplant and primary adult nectar plant, Eriogonum parvifolium (Polygonaceae), in this mountain range. Vegetation, soil, and geology types were identified for each of these known locations. Because all life stages of the endangered butterfly are closely associated with this foodplant, it served as a surrogate to identify new locations that might support the butterfly. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the relationships between foodplant occurrence and each of these environmental attributes. Logistic regression identified specific soil and geology types that were useful predictors of potential foodplant occurrence, but it was unable to identify comparable specific vegetation types. GIS analyses were performed to identify target areas that share the same combinations of these environmental attributes in locations known to support the foodplant. The top target areas were all characterized by soil and geology types that the logistic regression analyses corroborated were the best predictors of potential foodplant occurrence. To validate our SDM, field surveys for the foodplant and butterfly were performed at 300 predicted target locations. The foodplant and butterfly were observed at 88.4% and 80.7% of target areas or immediately adjacent to them, respectively. Results of this SDM not only provide a better understanding of this endangered butterfly's potential and actual geographic range but also the environmental attributes that constitute its suitable habitat. Furthermore, these findings will assist resource agencies in their conservation efforts to benefit this endangered butterfly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article considers case law from the courts of England and Wales on the balance between copyright and freedom of expression and how this has developed over the last 50 years or so. Although there has been no fundamental change in the approach of the English courts to this issue, the enactment of the Human Rights Act 1998 and the jurisprudence of the Court of Justice of the European Union have led to an acceptance that decisions in cases involving conflicts between copyright and freedom of expression need to be grounded in the European human rights framework. Like the CJEU, the English courts have generally preferred to treat human rights considerations as influencing the interpretation and application of the internal mechanisms in copyright law rather than as supplying an external corrective mechanism. In that sense progress has been made towards the constitutionalisation of copyright law. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An alternating geometric process can be used to model the operational and repair times of an ageing system. In applications such as warranty cost analysis, the mean of an alternating geometric process (i.e. the expected number of events by a given time) and the variance are of interest. In this paper, two new approaches are proposed for computing the mean and variance functions of two counting processes related to the alternating geometric process, namely the number of cycles up to time t and the number of failures up to time t. In warranty cost analysis, these approaches can be used to compute the expected number of claims and the expected cost over the warranty period. The usefulness of the proposed approaches in warranty cost analysis is demonstrated for a non-renewing free repair warranty policy. The new approaches offer benefits over simulation in terms of computational time and accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A mark-release-recapture study of the federally-listed Smith's Blue butterfly, Euphilotes enoptes smithi, was conducted in 1986 at Marina State Beach (Monterey County, CA) in coastal sand dune habitat. Demographic parameters estimated included daily and generation population numbers, residency, vagility, and emigration rates. Manly-Parr and Jolly-Seber analyses indicated an estimated 2,657 to 5,875 individuals comprised the 1986 generation, with average residence from 6.7 to 10.1 days (maximum 20 days). Average movements between consecutive observations on different days were 95.1 m for males and 91.0 m for females, while the longest lifetime dispersal observed was 1,230 m by a female. Emigration rates from areas of low quality habitat were as much as 8x greater than those from high quality habitat. Between 1997 and 2017 this butterfly was monitored yearly at three neighboring sand dune remnants in Sand City, CA to determine annual generation sizes. Transect counts of adults conducted during the 21 flight seasons, in conjunction with the frequencies of observed residencies from the 1986 study, indicated estimated generation numbers from 360 to 2,151 for the three sites combined. The observed year-to-year fluctuations in generation sizes were strongly correlated with annual numbers of flowerheads of this butterfly's Eriogonum foodplants, which in turn was correlated with annual precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This conceptual paper examines the development of global citizenship education (GCE) by looking at economic regionalism's political economy. First, this paper situates the Caribbean Community's (CARICOM) citizenship education initiatives within the larger scope of global citizenship. Using a historical policy analysis, this article then explores the nexus between economic integration and the construction of citizenship by analysing CARICOM's Human Resource Development (HRD) 2030 Strategy. In examining the HRD 2030 Strategy, it can be seen how the influence of both regional and global needs is being integrated into an initiative to standardise citizenship for an economically competitive Caribbean. Through the lens of neofunctionalism and intergovernmentalism, we reveal how the Ideal Caribbean Person initiative is a concept of regional citizenship created by regional economic policies and structural institutions. We conclude by arguing that the construction of global citizenship education at the regional level is, therefore, the consolidation of regional norms and their translation into a global context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The connection between nationalism and sport seems at once both obvious and manifest, with the most lavish praise of the nation often arising at sporting events. While a sizeable body of academic literature exists on the connection between the two concepts, it remains overlapping and unstructured. This state of the field review essay accounts for the major works in this field and categorizes it according to the function it fulfills in the subfield. Specifically, it focuses on sport as a mechanism for the diffusion and creation of nationalism, sport under conditions of globalization at Sporting Mega Events (SMEs), and the connection between sport and the distinction between civic and ethnic definitions of nationality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we present a model for delayed reporting of faults: multiple nonfatal faults are accumulated and then simultaneously reported and repaired. The reporting process is modeled as a stochastic process dependent on the underlying stochastic process generating the faults. We derive the joint distribution of the reporting times and numbers of reported faults, giving general results and results specific to faults generated by a Poisson process. We investigate a number of extensions to the basic model, including multiple fault types (including invisible and fatal faults), preventative maintenance, and customer rush. We show how to simulate from the model and implement maximum likelihood parameter estimation in a simulated dataset and a real dataset of warranty claims from a car manufacturer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is common in the literature on the reliability and maintenance of repairable systems to model the repair times as instantaneous. However, this is an unreasonable assumption for some complex systems, especially those requiring a high level of reliability, and such systems may spend a significant proportion of their lifetimes under maintenance and repair. We model the ageing of such a system with alternating stochastic processes. Operational times are generated at random and may have an increasing failure rate. Repair times are generated from a random process where the repair time is related to the hazard rate at failure. This yields lengthened repair times at late stages in a system subject to an increasing failure hazard rate but also accommodates long repair times at young ages in systems with a bathtub‐shaped hazard rate function. We derive analytic results for a set of special cases of the model, show how simulation and inference can be carried out, and apply our method to real data from a large car manufacturer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of an investigation, scientific or otherwise, is usually to find answers to some specific set of questions about the state of nature: what is the seismic velocity structure? How likely is this volcano to erupt within a certain period? Does a subsurface reservoir contain resources of interest? Background research may reveal the existence of pertinent knowledge and information discovered previously, new data are normally acquired, and an inference problem is solved in order to answer the questions taking both all of the a priori information and the new data into account. Inverse theory, decision theory and the theory of experimental design provide methods to optimize the design of the investigation and to estimate results. However, those theories are normally set in the context of a particular model of the universe, with its particular parametrization. This requires the investigator to specify a priori a coherent utility (a function that describes the risks and rewards) of all possible outcomes under that parametrization. Quite commonly, the investigator may not be able to do this. Ideally an investigator would be able merely to pose a set of questions, define a set of constraints on the data types, acquisition costs and logistics, and provide a functional to relate the questions to any particular parameter space. Theory and methodology would then semi-autonomously drive the interrogation of the state of nature by optimally selecting one or more relevant models and parameter spaces, and designing, acquiring and analysing data, in order to best answer the questions. If necessary this could be done in a sequential or iterative manner, which potentially then involves changing the questions posed in each iteration based on both previous results and inspiration from the investigator. We present such a theory of interrogation in this paper. We review the relevant aspects of decision and design theory, and cast them in a framework where the investigator specifies a utility only at the level required by the general questions to be posed. Each model under consideration is then mapped into this utility space of possible answers. We then extend this framework to sequential investigations, where the outcome of each step may affect all aspects of the problem: the models entertained, the utilities and even the questions themselves. A variety of examples illustrates the generality of this method: an asset team investigating how best to exploit a subsurface reservoir, Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the Bayesian evidence for geophysical models, discriminating between different rock physics models of strain in laboratory deformation experiments, an organization sequentially assessing the effectiveness of its methods to evaluate subsurface assets, assessing whether subsurface CO2 storage should be promoted for climate change mitigation, and examples running through the text of seismic tomography, earthquake characterization and autonomous interplanetary robotic exploration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes the temporal variation in far-right violence by examining it as a series of interrelated attacks that are embedded within and arising out of a broader cycle of far-right mobilization. It argues that the changing nature of far-right violence occurs as a trial-and-error process - what Sidney Tarrow terms “tactical innovation” - within a mobilizational cycle. As we demonstrate below, far-right mobilization is characterized by innovation, experimentation, and selection of specific types of attacks and particular targets that are deemed likely to garner public support and increase pressure on state officials. Consequently, over the course of the mobilizational cycle, far-right violence employed more organized forms of violence and increasingly targeted ethnic minorities and migrants. We find empirical support for this argument in the case of Russia, using event analysis of a ten-year span of mass violent attacks and an in-depth examination of selected riots. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How can one explain the recent fascination with sport as a tool of government policy in Russia?  This paper argues that sports policy in Russia is an essential part of policies to encourage nationalism and one which borrows heavily from the Soviet past.  Based on the analysis of meeting transcripts available on the Kremlin website and other materials, this paper argues that there are five key mechanisms by which the Kremlin uses the Soviet sport legacy to promote nationalism. This use of sport has implications for the popular reception of Putin’s regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article informs on international security threats that Russia is facing in its hosting of the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Topics discussed include impact of international terrorism and violence from the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine on the same; threats posed by the Caucasus Emirate and the Islamic State; and challenges of external security.

Why is Russian football culture so racist and xenophobic? While many countries have problems with racism, abundant evidence shows this is particularly bad in Russia and, indeed, a major concern ahead of the 2018 World Cup. We argue that, while a host of contributing factors in some sense “overdetermine” high levels of racism among Russian fans, the main reason is the deep penetration of the international far right. In the 1990s, the under-institutionalized nature of Russian fan culture was unable to organize resistance to the encroachment of the far right. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is an anthropological analysis of two massive risk events, (1) the 1780 North American smallpox pandemic at Hopi and (2) the contemporary transportation of radioactive waste along the Southern Paiute path to heaven; and an assessment of how these American Indian societies responded. Findings from the analysis are used to ground the Risk Society Theory of Ulrick Beck (1992). The analysis is based on historic documents and contemporary ethnographic interviews. A cross cultural and diachronic analysis of risks is theoretically important according to Boholm (2009) because understandings of risks, like other experiential phenomena, are informed by socially and culturally structured and historically conditioned conceptions and evaluations of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Authors and performers use pseudonyms in order to distance themselves from their works and performances. Pseudonymity protects expressive, creative, privacy and reputational interests. In this article we consider whether authors and performers should have a legal right to exclusive pseudonymity, that is, a right to be identified by their pseudonym to the exclusion of their real name. We argue that authors and performers should have a qualified right to pseudonymity, enforceable through a claim for misuse of private information, but which may be outweighed by other fundamental rights in some circumstances. We also consider the extent to which authors and performers are already protected from unwanted exposure of their identities by the laws of freedom of expression, privacy, moral rights and passing off. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Multicomponent systems may experience failures with correlations amongst failure times of groups of components, and some subsets of components may experience common cause, simultaneous failures. We present a novel, general approach to model construction and inference in multicomponent systems incorporating these correlations in an approach that is tractable even in very large systems. In our formulation, the system is viewed as being made up of independent overlapping subsystems (IOS). In these systems, components are grouped together into overlapping subsystems, and further into nonoverlapping subunits. Each subsystem has an independent failure process, and each component's failure time is the time of the earliest failure in all of the subunits of which it is a part. We apply this method to observations of an IOS model based on a multicomponent system accumulating damage due to a series of shocks, and with no repair/rectification actions. The model associates individual shock processes with each subsystem, and includes the Marshall–Olkin multivariate exponential model as a special case. We present approaches to simulation and to the estimation of the parameters of the model, given component failure data for various system configurations (series, parallel, and other arrangements). [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

A discussion of nine tenets of pedology provides perspectives of the US soil survey program. The tenets are: paradigm of soils, scientific methodology, functional landscapes, soils as individuals, behavioral functions of soils, improving documentation, sharing pedological knowledge, reliability of information, and enhancing decision making. Highlights of each reveal progress, concerns, and opportunities. Accepting soil as a continuum rather than as individual entities may be the most important shift in our thought processes and understanding of the pedosphere. New technologies and changing social and political strategies suggest there is hope for a viable and sustainable Earth. Pedology can provide meaningful information and knowledge about soil resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Racist violence in Russia has recently become a subject of interest to scholars and analysts of Russian politics. What are the similarities and differences between racist violence in Russia and the West? How does the level of Russian racist violence compare to other societies? Do racist hate groups in Russia have similar origins to groups in the West? This article considers these questions. I first demonstrate that Russia is indeed the most dangerous country in Europe for ethnic minorities, and argue that such violence is more ‘systematic’ (structured, ideologically coherent, patterned) than in other developed societies. The high level of violence against ethnic minorities in Russia is ‘over-determined’ by a combination of post-Soviet social and economic social changes, the brutalizing consequences of a long counter-insurgency campaign, and government passivity (and sometimes complicity) in the face of racist violence and hate speech. Thus, Russia’s systematic racist violence is analytically closer to outright ethnic conflict than to a form of criminal deviance that could aptly be termed ‘hate crime’. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mark–release–recapture methods (MRR) can provide reliable estimates of an insect population's vital parameters; however, transect counts are becoming preferred for endangered taxa due to concerns about potential damage to their habitats that may occur due to intensive sampling and adverse effects of handling on behavior and survival. Yet transect counts, when used without supplemental data on population parameters, have inherent limitations that lessen their usefulness for rigorous population monitoring, in particular for the estimation of generation population sizes. We revise and extend a method for estimating generation population size that parametrically couples models of abundance measurements from transect counts conducted annually with models of survival data from MRR studies only performed in some years. Extensions encompass 1) semiparametric modeling of count data, 2) accounting for spatial sampling error via two alternative formulations, and 3) a fully generalized approach to adjustment for imperfect detectability of individuals. Application of the basic estimator is illustrated using two endangered insects: Euphilotes battoides allyni (Shields) (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae) and Trimerotropis infantilis Rentz (Orthoptera, Acrididae). Adult life span of the butterfly is no more than a couple of weeks, while adults of the grasshopper may live for several months. Despite these pronounced differences, our method proved flexible enough to fit the MRR and count data from each species and generate stable estimates of their respective generation population sizes. Simulation studies were also conducted and generally revealed low bias, with close agreement between actual and estimated population sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This is an anthropological analysis of two massive risk events, (1) the 1780 North American smallpox pandemic at Hopi and (2) the contemporary transportation of radioactive waste along the Southern Paiute path to heaven; and an assessment of how these American Indian societies responded. Findings from the analysis are used to ground the Risk Society Theory of Ulrick Beck (1992). The analysis is based on historic documents and contemporary ethnographic interviews. A cross cultural and diachronic analysis of risks is theoretically important according to Boholm (2009) because understandings of risks, like other experiential phenomena, are informed by socially and culturally structured and historically conditioned conceptions and evaluations of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report here that (4R,9Z)-hexadec-9-en-4-olide [(R)-desmolactone] is a sex attractant or sex pheromone for multiple species and subspecies in the cerambycid genus Desmocerus. This compound was previously identified as a female-produced sex attractant pheromone of Desmocerus californicus californicus. Headspace volatiles from female Desmocerus aureipennis aureipennis contained (R)-desmolactone, and the antennae of adult males of two species responded strongly to synthetic (R)-desmolactone in coupled gas chromatography-electroantennogram analyses. In field bioassays in California, Oregon, and British Columbia, traps baited with synthetic (R)-desmolactone captured males of several Desmocerus species and subspecies. Only male beetles were captured, indicating that this compound acts as a sex-specific attractant, rather than as a signal for aggregation. In targeted field bioassays, males of the US federally threatened subspecies Desmocerus californicus dimorphus responded to the synthetic attractant in a dose dependent manner. Our results represent the first example of a “generic” sex pheromone used by multiple species in the subfamily Lepturinae, and demonstrate that pheromone-baited traps may be a sensitive and efficient method of monitoring the threatened species Desmocerus californicus dimorphus, commonly known as the valley elderberry longhorn beetle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite attempts to portray Krasnodar Kray in southern Russia as a homeland for Cossacks, to date the Cossack identity there remains underdeveloped. Why has a Cossack identity in Krasnodar not become more popular? This article uses the case of the Kuban Cossacks as a test of constructivist theories of identity. The article takes as background the attempts of the Russian authorities to display the Cossacks as the indigenous people of the region for the upcoming Winter Olympics in 2014. Despite this and other efforts, only a minuscule proportion of the inhabitants of Krasnodar Kray identify with the Cossack label, which makes this case problematic for constructivism. The article reviews constructivist theories of ethnic and national identity and analyses the advantages and obstacles to the successful construction of a Cossack identity in the Krasnodar region. It finishes by drawing implications for constructivist theorizing from the case of the Kuban Cossack Host. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although Russia appeared set to make an international comeback thanks to the 2014 Sochi Olympics, numerous international and domestic problems threaten to undermine the effect of the Games. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction While many epidemiological studies have shown that low outdoor temperatures are associated with increased rates of hospitalisation and mortality (especially for respiratory or cardiovascular disease), very few studies have looked at the association between indoor temperatures and health. Such studies are clearly warranted, as people have greater exposure to the indoor environment than the outdoor environment. Objectives To examine the relationship between various metrics of indoor temperature and lung function in children with asthma. Our specific research questions were: (1) In which room of the home is temperature most strongly associated with lung function? (2) Which exposure metric best describes the relationship between indoor temperature and lung function? (3) Over what lag/time period does indoor air temperature affect lung function most strongly? Methods The Heating Housing and Health Study was a randomised controlled trial that investigated the effect of installing heaters in the homes of children with asthma. This study collected measurements of lung function (daily) and indoor temperature (hourly). Lung function and indoor temperature were measured for 309 children over 12 049 child-days. Statistical models were fitted to identify the best measures and metrics. Results The strongest association with lung function was found for the severity of exposure to low bedroom temperatures averaged over the preceding periods of 0-7 to 0-12 days. A 1°C increase in temperature was associated with an average increase of 0.010, 0.008, 10.06, 12.06, in our four measures of lung function (peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) morning, PEFR evening, forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) morning and FEV1 evening). Conclusions Indoor temperatures have a small, but significant, association with short-term variations in the lung function of children with asthma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We extend our earlier studies of a multicomponent system accumulating damage due to a series of fatal and nonfatal shocks. The model introduces statistical dependence among the system components by associating individual shock processes with potentially overlapping subsystems made up of groupings of components. We construct an aging and statistical dependence model where damage accumulates multiplicatively with each shock. We derive a representation of the system's joint survival function, and show that the Marshall-Olkin multivariate exponential model can be obtained as a special case of this model. We propose an approach to the simulation of the performance of the system, and provide several illustrative examples. We conclude by identifying possible further extensions of this model. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We discuss linked Nuwuvi (Southern Paiute) ecological knowledge and place-based spirituality related to federal lands in the southern Great Basin, USA. Nuwuvi or 'the people' are Numic speakers who consider this area to be their ancestral homeland and a close relative since the time when the world was new. The current land holdings of these six federally and one non-federally recognized Native American nations are a fraction of the pre-contact period. The ancestral territory was fragmented and knowledge transmission hindered by gradual encroachment by settlers, reorganization onto reservations, land annexation by federal agencies, relocation to government boarding schools barring indigenous languages, and more. We present two applied interpretive and resource management projects aimed at revitalizing Nuwuvi relationships with their ancestral territory currently governed by several federal agencies. Our framework considers co-learning among indigenous peoples, federal land managers, and the general public to be vital to the revitalization process. Co-learning occurs in these projects by utilizing collaborative ethnographic methods in conducting research, integrating a variety of perspectives, creating opportunities for intergenerational knowledge transmission and interactions with ancestral lands, and enhancing government-to-government consultation and public education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article the authors, both ecological consultants, discuss the evidence base for ecological impact assessment and mitigation. Topics include a brief overview of the ecology consultancy market in Great Britain, the role of ecological impact assessments in predicting the consequences of development, and the effectiveness of mitigation, compensation, and environmental enhancement measures.

Abstract: New Zealand has experienced a prolonged epidemic of meningococcal B disease since 1991. The epidemic has waned significantly since its most recent peak in 2001. A strain-specific vaccine, MeNZB, was introduced to control the epidemic in 2004, achieving 81% coverage of people under the age of 20. The vaccine was rolled out in a staged manner allowing the comparison of disease rates in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in each year. Vaccine effectiveness in people aged under 20 years is estimated using a Poisson regression model in the years 2001–2008, including adjustments for year, season, age, ethnicity, region and socioeconomic status. Further analyses investigate the dose response relationship, waning of the vaccine effect after one year, and cross-protection against other strains of meningococcal disease. The primary analysis estimates MeNZB vaccine effectiveness to be 77% (95% CI 62–85) after 3 doses and a mean follow-up time of 3.2 years. There is evidence for a protective effect after 2 doses 47% (95% CI 16–67), and no evidence for a waning of effectiveness after one year. Simultaneous modelling of invasive pneumococcal disease and epidemic strain meningococcal B suggests a degree of residual confounding that reduces the effectiveness estimate to 68%. There is evidence for some cross-protection of MeNZB against non-epidemic strains. The MeNZB vaccine was effective against the New Zealand epidemic strain of meningococcal B disease. Between July 2004 and December 2008 an estimated 210 epidemic strain cases (95% CI 100–380), six deaths and 15–30 cases of severe sequelae were avoided in New Zealand due to the introduction of the MeNZB vaccine. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) methods are used to fit Bayesian capture–recapture models incorporating heterogeneity in individuals and samples. Heterogeneity in capture probabilities comes from finite mixtures and/or fixed sample effects allowing for interactions. Estimation by RJMCMC allows automatic model selection and/or model averaging. Priors on the parameters stabilize the estimates and produce realistic credible intervals for population size for overparameterized models, in contrast to likelihood-based methods. To demonstrate the approach we analyze the standard Snowshoe hare and Cottontail rabbit data sets from ecology, a reliability testing data set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents information about and attempts to explain particular violent acts by Russian skinheads against ethnic minorities in Russia. The authors present answers to questions about how the skinheads coordinate their activities and the importance of ethnicity in ethnic conflict in order to understand the violence and its causes. The authors state that there is good reason to believe that the violence is not random and that discovering the reasons should produce valuable insights into the process of ethnic violence.

The article discusses ethnic violence in Russia, particularly that which is perpetrated by skinheads against ethnic minorities and it says about group behavior. Several incidents that took place in 2006, mainly the violent acts that were perpetrated by murderer Alexander Koptsev, a bomb that was detonated a a bomb at the Cherkizovo market in Moscow, and attacks against Caucasian-owned businesses in Kondopoga. These acts have been largely attributed to nationalism and, in the case of the bombing, the influence of neo-Nazism on the perpetrators. The conception of ethnic violence is considered as is ethnic identity, separatism, the communicative power of ethnic violence, and symbolic violence, lynching, pogrom, and massacre, which the author identifies as the forms of violence.

Objective: Most medical educators have little or no training in teaching and assessing medical communication, and they are not consistent in what they teach. The authors set out to reach consensus in our educational community on a lexicon of communication terms for use in teaching physician–patient communication skills to second-year medical students. Methods: An interdisciplinary medical school physician–patient communication committee assembled 23 important terms and agreed on definitions for each term. Thirty core preclinical faculty representing nine medical specialties reviewed the lexicon. Faculty were surveyed about lexicon definitions, barriers to use, and methods of using during educational encounters. Results: All preclinical faculty members agreed on 19 out of 23 definitions and most respondents agreed on the definitions of the remaining four terms. Sixty-nine percent of respondents said they used the terms during their teaching encounters. Conclusion: Implementing a process to create a shared language around physician–patient communication may help unify and enhance faculty educational efforts. We were able to establish that medical educators can agree on the content of a medical communication lexicon for use with students. The use of defined and consistently used terms in multiple venues may reduce ambiguity, standardize teaching, enhance recognition of communication skills, and promote effective reinforcement and remediation by faculty. Practice implications: Evidence suggests that most medical educators have little or no training in teaching and assessing medical communication and that they are not consistent in what they teach. Asking a community of faculty to share responsibility for creating a communication lexicon may be an efficient and effective way to educate faculty and unify their educational effort. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We develop a new probabilistic (Bayesian) method for estimating the distribution of focal mechanism parameters, based on seismic-wave polarity data. We investigate the use of generalized Matrix Fisher distributions for parametrizing focal mechanism uncertainties. The advantages of our approach are that it (1) models the data generation process and incorporates observational errors, particularly those arising from imperfectly known earthquake locations; (2) allows exploration of the entire parameter space; (3) leads to natural point estimates of focal mechanism parameters; (4) allows the inclusion of a priori information about the focal mechanism parameters and (5) allows the resulting posterior PDF to be well approximated by generalized Matrix Fisher distributions. We present here the results of our method in two situations. We first consider the case in which the seismic velocity of the region of interest (described by a velocity model) is presumed to be precisely known, with application to seismic data from the Raukumara Peninsula, New Zealand. We then consider the case in which the velocity model is imperfectly known, with application to data from the Kawerau region, New Zealand. We find that our estimated focal mechanism solutions are for the most part consistent with all available polarity data and correspond closely to solutions obtained using established methods. Further, the generalized Matrix Fisher distributions we examine provide a good fit to our Bayesian posterior PDF of the focal mechanism parameters. Finally, we demonstrate how informative prior distributions on focal mechanism parameters can be incorporated into our model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The aim of the present study was to estimate the 12 month prevalence of schizophrenia in the Maori population of New Zealand. Method: Mental health data from two national sources were obtained for the period 2000-2003. A simple count of unique individuals with schizophrenia was used to estimate contact prevalence and a four-list capture-recapture procedure to estimate population prevalence. Results: Contact prevalence was significantly lower than the estimated population prevalence for both groups. The estimated 12 month prevalence of schizophrenia for Maori (0.97%) was significantly higher than for non-Maori (0.32%), even after adjustment for age, case under-ascertainment, and socioeconomic deprivation. Conclusions: The prevalence of schizophrenia among Maori appears to be elevated, although limitations in diagnostic reliability and recording of ethnicity must be considered. This adds further evidence of worldwide variation in the prevalence of schizophrenia. Capture-recapture provides a reliable cost-effective alternative to epidemiological surveys for estimating the prevalence of low-prevalence disorders such as schizophrenia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquakes are conspicuous manifestations of tectonic stress, but the non-linear relationships between the stresses acting on a fault plane, its frictional slip, and the ensuing seismic radiation are such that a single earthquake by itself provides little information about the ambient state of stress. Moreover, observational uncertainties and inherent ambiguities in the nodal planes of earthquake focal mechanisms preclude straightforward inferences about stress being drawn on the basis of individual focal mechanism observations. However, by assuming that each earthquake in a small volume of the crust represents a single, uniform state of stress, the combined constraints imposed on that stress by a suite of focal mechanism observations can be estimated. Here, we outline a probabilistic (Bayesian) technique for estimating tectonic stress directions from primary seismological observations. The Bayesian formulation combines a geologically motivated prior model of the state of stress with an observation model that implements the physical relationship between the stresses acting on a fault and the resultant seismological observation. We show our Bayesian formulation to be equivalent to a well-known analytical solution for a single, errorless focal mechanism observation. The new approach has the distinct advantage, however, of including (1) multiple earthquakes, (2) fault plane ambiguities, (3) observational errors and (4) any prior knowledge of the stress field. Our approach, while computationally demanding in some cases, is intended to yield reliable tectonic stress estimates that can be confidently compared with other tectonic parameters, such as seismic anisotropy and geodetic strain rate observations, and used to investigate spatial and temporal variations in stress associated with major faults and coseismic stress perturbations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe a simple mechanism for achieving two goals: (1) to encourage firms to take environmentally friendly action, and (2) to make environmental protection impervious to political change. We assert that there is wide evidence now that firms adopting an environmental management system (EMS) like ISO 14001 improve their environmental performance. This is because ISO 14001's third-party audits reduce the chance firms will fully fail to comply with regulations, and the EMS procedure reduces the chances firms will be in noncompliance due to ignorance. Our mechanism is intended to harness the power of EMS systems within firms, while reducing the chances that political change will nullify our solution. We argue that to achieve these goals, governments should make firms' participation in public procurement programs contingent on their adoption of an EMS such as 150 14001. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a discussion regarding the power-law distribution of language family sizes. The formula for power-law distribution, n equals a times r raised to negative b is a description of the relationship between the number of languages (n) in a language family, and the rank (r) of that family in a list ordered by decreasing n. The option of a linear model on the log-log plots is based on the assumption that the maximum possible value of n is infinite, which is clearly unrealistic or surreal.

Claims that the organizational structure of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) failed to cope with the needs to build comprehensive environmental protection policies. Comparison of the EPA structure with other agencies in the U.S.; Structural choices at the EPA; Argument that the lack of congressional mandate created the structural failures of the agency.