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• Little is known about the effects of urbanization on women's attitudes toward intimate partner violence (IPV). • We find a generally positive association between urbanization and progressive attitudes among women toward IPV. • Some stages of urbanization show a more significant association than others. • The effects are stronger for women in the upper and middle wealth terciles compared to those in the lowest wealth tercile. • Initially less-privileged women gain little from urbanization in the attitudes toward IPV. • Urban expansion should ideally be accompanied by development programs specifically targeting women in poor households. Little is known about the effects of urbanization on women's attitudes toward intimate partner violence (IPV). The scarcity of empirical studies on this relationship can be partly attributed to the lack of an objective measure of urbanization levels. In this study, we investigate the effects of urbanization on Ethiopian women's attitudes toward IPV using four continuous measures of urbanization: nightlight intensity, distance to urban areas, total urban area within a 10-km radius, and an urbanization index. These measures are defined from satellite-based nighttime light intensity and multispectral sensor data. We find that despite a generally strong positive association between urbanization and progressive attitudes among women toward IPV, some stages of urbanization show a more significant association than others. The heterogeneities in the effect of all urbanization measures on women's attitudes toward intimate partner violence further show that the effects of urbanization measures are sharply heterogeneous across wealth indicator terciles. While we find that urbanization measures are associated with an overall decrease in the justification of IPV, the effects are higher and stronger for women in the upper and middle wealth terciles compared to the lowest wealth tercile. Initially less-privileged women gain little from urbanization in the attitudes toward IPV, resulting in increased inequality in women's empowerment in the short and medium term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest is growing in the research literature in exploring how child nutrition is affected by sociocultural practices, such as polygyny. However, evaluation of the effect of polygyny on child nutrition is hindered by the complexity of the relationship. This paper investigates the effect of polygyny on anthropometric outcomes while recognising that unobservable household characteristics may simultaneously influence both the decision to form a polygynous union and the ability of the household to adequately nourish children. We apply an instrumental variable approach based on the occurrence of same-sex siblings in a woman's first two births to generate exogenous variation in polygyny. Using data from the 2008 and 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys, we find a detrimental effect of polygyny on child undernutrition. Our results show that the effect of polygyny is substantially reduced when we control for household characteristics, suggesting that part of the link between polygyny and child undernutrition is mediated through these channels. Nevertheless, the estimated coefficients of polygyny remain sizeable and strongly statistically significant even after controlling for these characteristics. Polygynous families may have different behavioural childcare practices, and/or the reduced bargaining power of women associated with polygynous families could be associated with higher rates of child undernutrition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Without changes in consumption, along with sharp reductions in food waste and postharvest losses, agricultural production must grow to meet future food demands. The variety of concepts and policies relating to yield increases fail to integrate an important constituent of production and human nutrition – biodiversity. We develop an analytical framework to unpack this biodiversity-production mutualism (BPM), which bridges the research fields of ecology and agroeconomics and makes the trade-off between food security and protection of biodiversity explicit. By applying the framework, the incorporation of agroecological principles in global food systems are quantifiable, informed assessments of green total factor productivity (TFP) are supported, and possible lock-ins of the global food system through overintensification and associated biodiversity loss can be avoided. Increasing demands for agricultural commodities are resulting in more intensely managed landscapes. This is at odds with biodiversity conservation and largely ignores farmland biodiversity's supporting function for high and stable yields. An overhaul of agroeconomic models to account for the biodiversity-production mutualism is urgently needed to answer a question of utmost importance: How do we manage the resources of our planet in such a way that we produce enough healthy food without destroying our life-support system? A comprehensive analytical framework is provided that accounts for multitrophic biodiversity-production processes; bridges disciplinary boundaries between agronomy, agroecology, economics, and conservation science; and elucidates the strong interactions of ecosystem functioning with food security and malnutrition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the economic interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, we employ a structural approach to biophysical and economic modeling that incorporates climate uncertainty and allows for rigorous comparison of climate, biophysical, and economic outcomes across global mitigation regimes. We find that effective global mitigation policies generate two sources of benefit. First, less distorted climate outcomes result in typically more favorable and less variable economic outcomes. Second, successful global mitigation policies reduce global fossil fuel producer prices, relative to unconstrained emissions, providing a substantial terms of trade boost of structural fuel importers. Combined, these gains are on the order of or greater than estimates of mitigation costs. These results highlight the interests of most developing countries in effective global mitigation policies, even in the relatively near term, with much larger benefits post-2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This introductory paper sets out the rationale for revisiting questions surrounding biofuel futures in Southern Africa and exploring the case for the establishment of a regional market. This contrasts with most research that has focused upon benefits and risks of production and consumption for individual countries. The analysis in this issue suggests that while benefits exist, the key challenges that have stifled production and consumption to date would need to be overcome. Unlocking trade requires relaxing requirements for South African manufacturers to source all their feedstock domestically. Key among factors to encourage production is resolving agricultural investment processes, particularly designing inclusive business models and clarifying land acquisition processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rights-based approach to development targets progress towards the realization of 30 articles set forth in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. In current practice, progress is frequently measured using the multidimensional poverty index. While elegant and useful, the multidimensional poverty index is inconsistent with the Universal Declaration of Human Rights principles of indivisibility, inalienability, and equality. We argue that a first-order dominance (FOD) methodology maintains basic consistency with these principles. Specifically, FOD comparisons are independent of any applied weighting schemes and hence are free from assumptions regarding substitutability between included welfare indicators (indivisibility). FOD cannot be established when welfare in any indicator is deteriorating, no matter how great the advancement is in other indicators (inalienability). Finally, FOD requires that domination occurs throughout the population (equality), implying that welfare gains among better-off groups never offset welfare losses among worse-off groups. We discuss and compare the properties of the multidimensional poverty index and first-order dominance approach and apply both measures to 26 African countries using data near 2002 and 2012. Results across the two measures are broadly similar but not the same. For example, while the multidimensional poverty index suggests that all countries are advancing, FOD indicates that 14 countries experience broad-based progress, two countries show more moderate likelihoods of progress, and the remaining 10 countries neither improve nor deteriorate in terms of attainment of rights for the dimensions considered. We conclude that the multidimensional poverty index and first-order dominance approaches are useful complements that should be employed in tandem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decade to 2015 saw rapid growth in trade between Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. Much of this growth reflected South African exports to its neighbours of diversified manufactured goods to meet growing urban consumption and to supply inputs to mining and infrastructure. While most SADC countries, aside from South Africa, grew quite rapidly over this period, their exports remained oriented to a narrow range of minerals and agricultural commodities destined to go outside the region. Drawing from a series of sectoral studies, we assess key regional issues including the investment and production decisions of firms whose operations stretch across borders, and consider the implications for a bottom-up integration agenda that could build productive capabilities across countries. Our evaluation highlights the importance of the spread of supermarkets, the need to address transport and logistics, and value chains whose competitive advantages are inherently regional, as in the cases of poultry and mining. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a sequential approach to link a bottom-up energy sector model to a detailed dynamic general equilibrium model of South Africa. The approach is designed to simultaneously address the shortcomings and maintain the attractive features of detailed energy sector and general equilibrium models. It also reflects common country-level energy planning processes. We illustrate the capabilities of this integrated bottom-up approach by analyzing the implications of (i) a carbon tax, (ii) liberalization of import supply restrictions in order to exploit regional hydropower potential, and (iii) a combined policy where both carbon taxes and import liberalization are pursued. For the combined scenario, our results suggest substantial emissions reductions relative to Baseline at essentially no cost to economic growth but about a one percent reduction in employment. We conclude that a regional energy strategy, anchored in hydropower, represents a potentially inexpensive approach to decarbonizing the South African economy. The strategy also has political economy attractions in that the combined approach reduces the burden of adjustment of politically sensitive sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We apply a probabilistic approach to the evaluation of climate change impacts in Mozambique. We pass a distribution of climate shocks through a series of structural biophysical models. The resulting joint distributions of biophysical outcomes are then imposed on a dynamic economywide model. This framework produces distributions of economic impacts of climate change thus identifying an explicit range of potential economic outcomes and associating probability levels with given sets of outcomes. For example, we find that the economy of Mozambique may be up to 13 % smaller in 2050 compared with a fictional no climate change scenario (and assuming global policy fails to constrain emissions growth). The probability of gross domestic product (GDP) declines of greater than 10 % is relatively small at 2.5 %. These large declines are principally the result of dramatic reductions in flood return periods. To 2050, about 70 % of future climates result in GDP losses of between zero and five percent. In about 9 % of cases, climate change shocks result in higher GDP outcomes. We conclude that, relative to current practice, this structural probabilistic approach provides (i) significantly more information to decision-makers, (ii) more detailed insight into the importance of various impact channels, and (iii) a more holistic and comprehensive approach for evaluating adaptation options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we assert that developing countries are much better prepared to undertake negotiations at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (CoP21) as compared to CoP15 in Copenhagen. An important element of this is the accumulation of knowledge with respect to the implications of climate change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts, the inseparability of the development and climate agendas, and the rate of assimilation of climate and development information in key institutions. They are drawn from the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project carried out by UNU-WIDER of which the countries of the Greater Zambeze Valley formed a part. Finally, we outline three areas for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of climate change is often computationally burdensome. Here, we present an approach for intelligently selecting a sample of climates from a population of 6800 climates designed to represent the full distribution of likely climate outcomes out to 2050 for the Zambeze River Valley. Philosophically, our approach draws upon information theory. Technically, our approach draws upon the numerical integration literature and recent applications of Gaussian quadrature sampling. In our approach, future climates in the Zambeze River Valley are summarized in 12 variables. Weighted Gaussian quadrature samples containing approximately 400 climates are then obtained using the information from these 12 variables. Specifically, the moments of the 12 summary variables in the samples, out to order three, are obliged to equal (or be close to) the moments of the population of 6800 climates. Runoff in the Zambeze River Valley is then estimated for 2026 to 2050 using the CliRun model for all 6800 climates. It is then straightforward to compare the properties of various subsamples. Based on a root of mean square error (RMSE) criteria, the Gaussian quadrature samples substantially outperform random samples of the same size in the prediction of annual average runoff from 2026 to 2050. Relative to random samples, Gaussian quadrature samples tend to perform best when climate change effects are stronger. We conclude that, when properly employed, Gaussian quadrature samples provide an efficient and tractable way to treat climate uncertainty in biophysical and economic models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary This paper confirms recent evidence of a positive impact of aid on growth and widens the scope of evaluation to a range of outcomes including proximate sources of growth (e.g., physical and human capital), indicators of social welfare (e.g., poverty and infant mortality), and measures of economic transformation (e.g., share of agriculture and industry in value added). Focusing on long-run cumulative effects of aid in developing countries, and taking due account of potential endogeneity, a coherent and favorable pattern of results emerges. Aid has over the past 40 years stimulated growth, promoted structural change, improved social indicators, and reduced poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] South Africa is considering introducing a carbon tax to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. [•] A phased-in tax of US$30 per ton can achieve national emissions reductions targets set for 2025. [•] Ignoring all potential benefits, the tax reduces national welfare by about 1.2 percent in 2025. [•] Border carbon adjustments reduce welfare losses while maintaining emissions reductions. [•] The mode for recycling carbon tax revenues strongly influences distributional outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: We develop an approach for making welfare comparisons between populations with multidimensional discrete well-being indicators observed at the micro level. The approach is rooted in the concept of multidimensional first order dominance. It assumes that, for each indicator, the levels can be ranked ordinally from worse to better; however, no assumptions are made about relative importance of any dimension nor about complementarity/substitutability relationships between dimensions. We also introduce an efficient algorithm for determining dominance and employ a bootstrap approach that permits cardinal rankings of populations. These approaches are applied to household survey data from Vietnam and Mozambique. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The global economy is passing through a period of profound change. The immediate concern is with the financial crisis, originating in the North. The South is affected via reduced demand and lower prices for their exports, reduced private financial flows and falling remittances. This is the first crisis. Simultaneously, climate change remains unchecked, with the growth in greenhouse gas emissions exceeding previous estimates. This is the second crisis. Finally, malnutrition and hunger are on the rise, propelled by the recent inflation in global food prices. This constitutes the third crisis. These three crises interact to undermine the prosperity of present and future generations. Each has implications for international aid and underline the need for concerted action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: We use a gendered dynamic CGE model to assess the implications of biofuels expansion in a low-income, land-abundant setting. Mozambique is chosen as a representative case. We compare scenarios with different gender employment intensities in producing jatropha feedstock for biodiesel. Under all scenarios, biofuels investments accelerate GDP growth and reduce poverty. However, a stronger trade-off between biofuels and food availability emerges when female labor is used intensively, as women are drawn away from food production. A skills-shortage among female workers also limits poverty reduction. Policy simulations indicate that only modest improvements in women’s education and food crop yields are needed to address food security concerns and ensure broader-based benefits from biofuels investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between border tax rates and evasion is examined for Mozambique using the methodology developed by Fisman and Wei (2004). We find that high tax rates are associated with high levels of under-reporting of import values and that tax rates have a strong and positive effect on tax evasion. Results also strongly confirm the presence of fraudulent classification of merchandise into lower taxed product categories. Finally, analysis of the revenue implications of lower trade taxes finds that the revenue curve is quite flat but remains upward sloping with respect to the tax rate when only evasion is considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines the implications of AIDS deaths for economic growth prospects for Mozambique. Human capital accumulation through education receives particular attention. Education and human capital transition matrices are estimated using a minimum cross entropy approach. Consistent with evidence from Tanzania and elsewhere, HIV/AIDS is assumed to slow the rate of human capital accumulation. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium approach, reduced rates of human and physical capital accumulation are shown to interact strongly with technical change that is biased towards physical and human capital. The results point to the education sector as a major and policy sensitive channel of impact. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Focuses on a study which compared the Gaussian quadrature approach with the perdominant soils approach of Stoneman, Brown and Spivey. Methods; Results; Discussion on the findings of the soil sampling research.

Presents information on a study which analyzed improvements in agricultural productivity and reductions in marketing costs in Mozambique. Country background of Mozambique; Simulation results; Conclusion.

Provides information on a study which examined the interactions between agricultural technology improvements, risk-reducing behavior and gender roles in agricultural production in Mozambique. General equilibrium perspective on gender and agriculture in Mozambique; Computable general equilibrium model for Mozambique; Simulations and results.

Deciphering the Biodiversity-Production Mutualism in the Global Food Security Debate: (Trends in Ecology and Evolution 35, 1011-1020). [Extracted from the article]

This article examines the implications of urban growth on youth migration decisions in Nigeria. We use night light intensity data combined with Living Standards Measurement Study‐Integrated Surveys on Agriculture data, as an indicator of urban growth and associated economic opportunities. Employing alternative econometric approaches that exploit the spatial and temporal differences in urban growth as proxied by night light intensity, we find that urban growth in potential migrant destinations encourages youth migration. We also find heterogeneous responses to urban growth among various groups of youth as well as varying responses to different types of migration. Broadly, women and those youth with more education are more likely to migrate, while those in households with livestock are less likely to migrate. Often, however, the effects are complex and varied. For example, land and physical asset ownership encourage temporary migration; but greater land ownership discourages permanent migration, while physical assets have insignificant effects. Our results from Nigeria show that policy makers concerned about rural–urban youth exodus should adopt a differentiated, in terms of targets, and multidimensional policy approach to reap the benefits of urbanization while avoiding its negative consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mozambique is one of the most promising African countries for producing biofuels and the national biofuel policy of 2009 identifies measures to incentivize biofuel production. Demand for biofuels in the Southern African Development Community is expected to increase over the next few years as 7 of its 15 member states have implemented or proposed the implementation of blending mandates by 2020. South Africa is one of these countries. Using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we estimate the impacts of expanding biofuel production in Mozambique under both commercial and smallholder-type farming models, including and excluding bagasse cogeneration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Potential biofuel demand in South Africa is estimated to increase to 1550 million litres by 2025 due to mandatory blending rates. Land and water constraints, however, limit the ability for domestic production. Zambia, due to its abundance in land, suitable climate, supportive set of bioenergy incentives and close geographical location to South Africa, has the potential to meet this increase in demand. Using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the macro- and socio-economic impacts of bioethanol production in Zambia from three potential crops: sugarcane, cassava and sweet sorghum. The results show that the development of a single product bioethanol industry has the potential to increase economic growth without negatively affecting overall food security. Further expansion of the industry to multiple products results in larger gains to growth and welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study develops a reliability assessment method of wind resource using optimum reservoir target power operations that maximizes the firm generation of integrated wind and hydropower. A combination of water resources model for a system of reservoirs that implements a demand–priority based linear programing algorithm and a single node power grid system model is implemented on hourly time step. This model was accompanied by a global genetic algorithm solver to determine optimum operation targets for each storage reservoir aiming at maximizing the 90th percentile power generation produced by the integration of wind and hydro over the entire simulation period. This model was applied on the reservoir storages and hydropower system in the Zambezi river basin to test if the storage reservoirs could be efficiently be used to offset wind power intermittence in South Africa subjected to the different physical and policy constraints. Based on the optimized target operation and hourly annual real data for the year 2010, the water resources system and power interconnection system were simulated together to assess the maximum firm generation of power as a result of the new wind and hydro combination target for storage hydropower plants. The result obtained indicates that high regulation of wind and hydro can be achieved as a result of combined operation and showed 45% increase in the level of wind penetration in South Africa’s power system over the reference scenario. The result also indicated a reduced level of coal power utilization and less cycling requirement. This will have a positive outcome in terms contributing to South Africa’s goal toward reducing greenhouse gas emission and the efforts to build green energy supply and resilience to the impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]