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1. Climate change and health within the South African context: A thematic content analysis study of climate change and health expert interviews

Author

Monika dos Santos, Juanette John, Rebecca Garland, Romeo Palakatsela, Arnaud Banos, Pim Martens, Bono Nemukula, Murdock Ramathuba, Faith Nkohla, and Keobakile Lenyibi

Subjects
climate change, health, south africa, climate change and health expert interviews, sustainable development, healthcare systems strengthening, Medicine, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract

Background: Climate change presents an unprecedented and urgent threat to human health and survival. South Africa’s health response will require a strong and effective intersectoral organisational effort. Aim: Exploratory interview outcomes are used to advance practice and policy recommendations, as well as for broad input in the development of a draft national framework for a health risk and vulnerability assessment (RVA) for national departments. Setting: Nationally in South Africa. Method: Twenty key expert interviews were conducted with South African experts in the field of climate change and health. Interview data was analysed by means of thematic content analysis. Results: Findings suggest that previously poor communities are most at risk to the impacts of climate change on health, as well as those with underlying medical conditions. Climate change may also serve as a catalyst for improving the healthcare system overall and should serve as the conduit to do so. A draft climate change and health RVA should take into account existing frameworks and should be implemented by local government. It is also critical that the health and health system impacts from climate change are well understood, especially in light of the plans to implement the (South African) National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme. Conclusion: Practice and policy initiatives should be holistic in nature. Consideration should be given to forming a South African National Department of Climate Change, or a similar coordinating body between the various national departments in South Africa, as health intercepts with all other domains within the climate change field.

Published
2022
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2. Jouer et modéliser un territoire sans voiture : retour d’expérience sur le projet post-car Île-de-France

Author

Arnaud Banos, Fanny Cottet, and Jean Debrie

Subjects
mobility, Agent based model, board game, post-car, Paris Region, serious games, Geography (General), G1-922, Colonies and colonization. Emigration and immigration. International migration, JV1-9480
Abstract

This paper deals with an urban foresight exercise combining a board game and modeling. This experiment, entitled "post-car Île-de-France", (UMR Géographie-cités & Forum Vies Mobiles), aimed to propose a serious game to explore the hypothesis of a strong reduction in car mobility. The production of a device - an agent-based model and a board game - made it possible to explore configurations of car-free territories and their evolution over thirty years. This serious game was tested in 2018 and 2019 in workshops with various audiences (students, general public and researchers). We propose in this article to explore three main aspects, a methodological aspect (the co-production of a model and a game), an explanation of the game sessions (playing the post-car hypothesis) and a reflection on the contribution of the serious game to the renewal of tools and reflections on the city of tomorrow (the game, a foresight tool?).

Published
2020
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3. The Importance of Being Hybrid for Spatial Epidemic Models:A Multi-Scale Approach

Author

Arnaud Banos, Nathalie Corson, Benoit Gaudou, Vincent Laperrière, and Sébastien Rey Coyrehourcq

Subjects
agent-based modeling, city systems, disease spread, mobility, model coupling, metapopulation, network, ODE, Systems engineering, TA168, Technology (General), T1-995
Abstract

This work addresses the spread of a disease within an urban system, definedas a network of interconnected cities. The first step consists of comparing two differentapproaches: a macroscopic one, based on a system of coupled Ordinary DifferentialEquations (ODE) Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) systems exploiting populations onnodes and flows on edges (so-called metapopulational model), and a hybrid one, couplingODE SIR systems on nodes and agents traveling on edges. Under homogeneous conditions(mean field approximation), this comparison leads to similar results on the outputs on whichwe focus (the maximum intensity of the epidemic, its duration and the time of the epidemicpeak). However, when it comes to setting up epidemic control strategies, results rapidlydiverge between the two approaches, and it appears that the full macroscopic model is notcompletely adapted to these questions. In this paper, we focus on some control strategies,which are quarantine, avoidance and risk culture, to explore the differences, advantages anddisadvantages of the two models and discuss the importance of being hybrid when modelingand simulating epidemic spread at the level of a whole urban system.

Published
2015
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4. Simuler les interactions piétons-automobilistes dans un environnement urbain

Author

Arnaud Banos and Sylvain Lassarre

Subjects
urban environment, road safety, agent-based simulation, Geography (General), G1-922
Abstract

An agent-based model - SAMU - has been designed, which allows exploring pedestrians-drivers interaction in a virtual urban environment. Complex dynamics are obtained from simple behaviours. The key elements of SAMU are presented and discussed.

Published
2008
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7. Exploring Intra-Urban Accessibility and Impacts of Pollution Policies with an Agent-Based Simulation Platform: GaMiroD

Author

Pierre Fosset, Arnaud Banos, Elise Beck, Sonia Chardonnel, Christophe Lang, Nicolas Marilleau, Arnaud Piombini, Thomas Leysens, Alexis Conesa, and Isabelle Andre-Poyaud

Subjects
sustainable city, large scale simulation, multi-agent system, low emission zone, urban daily dynamic, Systems engineering, TA168, Technology (General), T1-995
Abstract

In this work we address the issue of sustainable cities by focusing on one of their very central components: daily mobility. Indeed, if cities can be interpreted as spatial organizations allowing social interactions, the number of daily movements needed to reach this goal is continuously increasing. Therefore, improving urban accessibility merely results in increasing traffic and its negative externalities (congestion, accidents, pollution, noise, etc.), while eventually reducing the quality of life of people in the city. This is why several urban-transport policies are implemented in order to reduce individual mobility impacts while maintaining equitable access to the city. This challenge is however non-trivial and therefore we propose to investigate this issue from the complex systems point of view. The real spatial-temporal urban accessibility of citizens cannot be approximated just by focusing on space and implies taking into account the space-time activity patterns of individuals, in a more dynamic way. Thus, given the importance of local interactions in such a perspective, an agent based approach seems to be a relevant solution. This kind of individual based and “interactionist” approach allows us to explore the possible impact of individual behaviors on the overall dynamics of the city but also the possible impact of global measures on individual behaviors. In this paper, we give an overview of the Miro Project and then focus on the GaMiroD model design from real data analysis to model exploration tuned by transportation-oriented scenarios. Among them, we start with the the impact of a LEZ (Low Emission Zone) in the city center.

Published
2016
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8. Un automate cellulaire pour expérimenter les effets de la proximité dans le processus d’étalement urbain : le modèle Raumulus

Author

Diego Moreno, Dominique Badariotti, and Arnaud Banos

Subjects
urban growth, cellular automata, city, proximity, Geography (General), G1-922
Abstract

In this article, a cellular automaton model is proposed to analyze the effect of different kinds of proximity in urban growth process. Simulations showed that the modification of three variables (built areas density, Euclidean distance from each cell to road network and network distance to urban center) is sufficient to make different typical patterns emerge, and that these patterns correspond to different ways to organize urban space. This method improves understanding of the role of proximities in urban dynamics, in order to build models based on spatial and topological properties to describe evolution of urban systems.

Published
2012
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9. Christaller, toujours vivant !

Author

Arnaud Banos, Diego Moreno, Cyril Pivano, and Patrick Taillandier

Subjects
Geography (General), G1-922
Abstract

This paper explores, with an agent-based model called « LivingChristaller, Christaller’s Central Places Model. Focusing on two distinct populations (consumers and producers), it restraints itself to the main hypothesis enunciated by Walter Christaller.

Published
2011

10. Christaller, still alive!

Author

Arnaud Banos, Diego Moreno, Cyril Pivano, and Patrick Taillandier

Subjects
Geography (General), G1-922
Abstract

This paper—by means of an agent-based model called “LivingChristaller”—explores the possibilities for the emergence of the regular spatial organisation of the centres of production proposed by Walter Christaller for two distinct populations (the producers of goods and the consumers of these goods), and on the sole basis of the working hypothesis formulated by the author.

Published
2011

11. Simulating pedestrian movement in dynamic environments

Author

Arnaud Banos and Angèle Charpentier

Subjects
planning, simulation, pedestrian, architecture, agent-based model, Geography (General), G1-922
Abstract

Agent-based simulation offers multiple advantages when dealing with complex phenomena like pedestrian movement, characterised by a possibly large number of locally interacting entities. The main goal of this article is to illustrate this key point, from the simulation of pedestrian movements in confined designed spaces. It specifically focuses on the formalisation of space and of agents populating it. The model developed, MAGE, allows exploring the role played by local interactions on the global dynamic of the designed spatial system.

Published
2010
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12. À la recherche d’effets réseaux dans la dynamique du modèle de ségrégation de Schelling

Author

Arnaud Banos

Subjects
network, segregation, Schelling’s model, agent-based model, Geography (General), G1-922
Abstract

It is a shared belief that Thomas Schelling’ model of segregation is only weakly affected by the underlying spatial structure, whatever its complexity. Such a conclusion is important from an urban planning perspective as it suggests that only a very restricted range of possible actions, if any, would be able to contribute limiting social segregation, unless individual preferences are significantly modified. Our own simulations show that, using appropriate graph-based spatial structures, one can reveal significant spatial effects and thus provide alternative planning insights. Cliques in networks indeed play a significant role, reinforcing segregation effects in Schelling’s model.

Published
2010
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13. Spatio-temporal exploration of SARS epidemic

Author

Arnaud Banos and Javier Lacasa

Subjects
GIS, animated cartography, SARS, spatio-temporal information, geovisualization/geovisualisation, Geography (General), G1-922
Abstract

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) appeared in November 2002 in China. Between March and July 2003, the virus dramatically spread, reaching 30 countries all over the world and obtaining rapidly the status of “first pandemic of the XXIth Century”. Six months after its second emergence in Hong-Kong in March, more than 8500 cases had been identified, and 800 people had died from that new coronavirus. We propose a spatio-temporal exploration of national numbers published daily by the World Health Organization during that period, providing original insights on that major epidemic

Published
2007
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14. Conception d’un automate cellulaire non stationnaire à base de graphe pour modéliser la structure spatiale urbaine: le modèle Remus

Author

Dominique Badariotti, Arnaud Banos, and Diego Moreno

Subjects
cellular automata, graph, urban, modeling/modelling, neighborhood/neighbourhood, Geography (General), G1-922
Abstract

We propose a new approach of cellular automata, based on a graph frame, which allows the modelling of irregular and dynamic neighbourhood of spatial entities. The Remus model permits the computation of a graph representing the buildings and the transportation network (the urban graph), and thus the calculation of the network in time-distance between buildings. This model allows the extraction of various graphs, including the functional graph of the network-time-distances between buildings, and the neighbourhood- relationships graph which represents the network-neighbourhoods according to a certain time-distance-threshold and a given transportation mode.

Published
2007
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15. Vers une approche individu-centrée pour modéliser et simuler l’expression spatiale d’une maladie transmissible : la peste à Madagascar

Author

Dominique Badariotti, Arnaud Banos, and Vincent Laperrière

Subjects
complex system, multi-agent system, plague, pathogen, Geography (General), G1-922
Abstract

Since the introduction of plague in Madagascar by European settlers, research on the Madagascar epidemiologic cycle has been focusing upon the comprehension of the transmission process between the main host, rats, and the secondary one, humans, via a vector, fleas. This process is now well known, thanks to the experimental method. Nowadays, research integrates a new approach, derived from artificial intelligence techniques and founded upon sciences of complexity, to analyse emergence, re-emergence, conservation and diffusion of plague in its environment, in order to improve its control. The aim of our paper is to present this new approach of plague, replaced in its historical context, and based on multi-agent modelling.

Published
2007
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16. From individual statements to market maps: a geomarketing approach to public transport Planning

Author

Arnaud Banos

Subjects
geomarketing, urban public transport, mobility behavior, generalized/generalised linear model, spatial generalization/generalisation, preference, Geography (General), G1-922
Abstract

Since several decades, French urbanisation evolves in a way that can hardly be seen favourable to public transportation. Innovation is needed in this field, if the individual automobile is to be faced on its own territories. This need for innovation concerns the miscellaneous stages of the public transport production, including the preliminary analysis ones. Indeed, many work remains to be done to understand mobility behaviour, what is more if we are to propose versatile and viable alternatives to current trends. Geomarketing based surveys, combining revealed and stated preferences, are a powerful way of acquiring such an accurate information. From a qualitative point of view, this kind of information allows to calibrate public transport services adapted as much as possible to the targeted customers. However, the major problem of the spatial generalisation of this individual information remains often unsolved. In this context, a strategy is proposed, based on the combination of miscellaneous methods.

Published
2002
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17. A propos de l’analyse spatiale exploratoire des données

Author

Arnaud Banos

Subjects
exploratory data analysis (EDA), local indicator, spatial modeling/modelling, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), Geography (General), G1-922
Abstract

Since the geographical information system revolution of the mid-1980s, there has been a rapid growth in the number of spatially referenced databases. Data management, within these new systems, immediately took up a large place, but today, as Stan Openshaw argued, "analysis is no longer an optional activity". Nevertheless, we may keep in mind that spatial data have very special properties, that create a need for spatial data analysis and spatial. Furthermore, it may be argued that, in a GIS context, user’s needs are mainly of a data exploratory nature. Yet, data-driven tools can hardly be found within classical GIS software, when they are available at all.

Published
2001
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18. Représentation surfacique d'évènements ponctuels discrets. Comparaison méthodologique à partir de l'exemple des accidents de la route dans la C.U.D.L.

Author

Arnaud Banos and Jérome Bolot

Subjects
Geography (General), G1-922
Abstract

Spatial point pattern analysis of large data sets involves powerful visualization techniques. This paper intends to present two suitable methods : the first one is based on kernel density estimation technique, while the second uses regular grid of quadrats superimposed on the event distribution. Both methods are applied to road accidents analysis in the urban community of Lille (France).

Published
1999
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19. Méthode d'identification de concentrations locales d'événements dans un semis de points. Application aux accidents de la route

Author

Arnaud Banos and Florence Huguenin-Richard

Subjects
Geography (General), G1-922
Abstract

The Geographical Analysis Machine (GAM), developped by Stan OPENSHAW, is an automated exploratory spatial data analysis method of point data. It allows to identify localized geographical clustering of events in space. This method is applied to road accidents data in the urban community of Lille (France).

Published
1999
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32. List of contributors

Author

Patrícia Abrantes, Marion Amalric, Brice Anselme, Arnaud Banos, Elise Beck, Nicolas Becu, Inês Boavida-Portugal, Katažyna Bogdzevič, Igor Bogunovic, Calum Brown, Michael Buxton, Nidia Cabrera, Freddy Lemay Cámara-García, Arijit Das, Manob Das, Nicholas Dendoncker, David García-Álvarez, Eduardo Gomes, Roberto González-Sousa, Gabriel Greco, Sascha Holzhauer, Miguel Inacio, Marius Kalinauskas, Ahmed Laatabi, Simone Zarpelon Leao, Ashis Mandal, Facundo Martín, Juan F. Martínez-Murillo, Amélie Monfort, Darren Moseley, Paulo Pereira, Christopher J. Pettit, Cécilia Pignon-Mussaud, Anton Pijl, Carlos Quintana-Cortina, Ricardo Remond-Noa, Derek T. Robinson, Jorge Rocha, Facundo Rojas, Mark D.A. Rounsevell, Cecilia Rubio, Fernanda Rubio, María Clara Rubio, Romina Sales, Paolo Tarolli, Hedwig Van Delden, Jasper van Vliet, Luis Verdugo, Cláudia M. Viana, Gregor Vulturius, Siqi Yang, and Wenwu Zhao

Published
2022
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37. Climate change and health within the South African context: A thematic content analysis study of climate change and health expert interviews

Author

Monika dos Santos, Juanette John, Rebecca Garland, Romeo Palakatsela, Arnaud Banos, Pim Martens, Bono Nemukula, Murdock Ramathuba, Faith Nkohla, Keobakile Lenyibi, Maastricht Sustainability Institute, and RS: GSBE MSI

Subjects
VULNERABILITY, sustainable development, National Health Programs, Climate Change, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Black People, health, climate change and health expert interviews, General Medicine, South Africa, climate change, healthcare systems strengthening, HIV/AIDS, Humans, sense organs, Family Practice, Delivery of Health Care
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Climate change presents an unprecedented and urgent threat to human health and survival. South Africa's health response will require a strong and effective intersectoral organisational effort. AIM: Exploratory interview outcomes are used to advance practice and policy recommendations, as well as for broad input in the development of a draft national framework for a health risk and vulnerability assessment (RVA) for national departments SETTING: Nationally in South Africa. METHOD: Twenty key expert interviews were conducted with South African experts in the field of climate change and health. Interview data was analysed by means of thematic content analysis. RESULTS: Findings suggest that previously poor communities are most at risk to the impacts of climate change on health, as well as those with underlying medical conditions. Climate change may also serve as a catalyst for improving the healthcare system overall and should serve as the conduit to do so. A draft climate change and health RVA should take into account existing frameworks and should be implemented by local government. It is also critical that the health and health system impacts from climate change are well understood, especially in light of the plans to implement the (South African) National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme. CONCLUSION: Practice and policy initiatives should be holistic in nature. Consideration should be given to forming a South African National Department of Climate Change, or a similar coordinating body between the various national departments in South Africa, as health intercepts with all other domains within the climate change field.

Published
2021

38. Modelling and Gaming Urban Mobility: Île-de-France’s Post-Car Project

Author

Jean Debrie, Hadrien Commenges, Arnaud Banos, Identité et Différenciation de l’Espace, de l’Environnement et des Sociétés (IDEES), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université Le Havre Normandie (ULH), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU), Géographie-cités (GC (UMR_8504)), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), Sajous P., Bertelle C., Identités et Différenciation de l'Environnement des Espaces et des Sociétés (IDEES), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), and Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS)

Subjects
education.field_of_study, CRIA, Ile de france, Computer science, 05 social sciences, Population, 0211 other engineering and technologies, 0507 social and economic geography, COUV, 02 engineering and technology, PARIS team, [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography, Environmental economics, Reduction (complexity), Order (business), Macro, education, 050703 geography, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 021101 geological & geomatics engineering
Abstract

This paper presents a modelling and forecasting approach in order to explore scenarios for the evolution of mobility, characterised by a significant reduction in the importance of cars. This approach is based on producing a macro model, which generates scenarios showing radical changes in population and activities organisation. It also leads to a micro model that allows playing with territorial configurations with no cars, as part of forecasting sessions conducted during gaming workshops. These two modelling exercises allow discussion of the renewal of methodological tools required to explore and assess scenarios.

Published
2021
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39. Jouer et modéliser un territoire sans voiture : retour d'expérience sur le projet post-car Île-de-France

Author

Jean Debrie, Arnaud Banos, Fanny Cottet, Identités et Différenciation de l'Environnement des Espaces et des Sociétés (IDEES), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université Le Havre Normandie (ULH), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU), Géographie-cités (GC (UMR_8504)), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), Identité et Différenciation de l’Espace, de l’Environnement et des Sociétés (IDEES), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), and Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN)

Subjects
board game, Modèle à base d’agents, History, jeux sérieux, serious games, [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography, Île-de-France, Paris Region, mobility, post-car, Computer Science Applications, Education, jeu de plateau, Agent based model, mobilité
Abstract

International audience; This paper deals with an urban foresight exercise combining a board game and modeling. This experiment, entitled "post-car Île-de-France", (UMR Géographie-cités & Forum Vies Mobiles), aimed to propose a serious game to explore the hypothesis of a strong reduction in car mobility. The production of a device - an agent-based model and a board game - made it possible to explore configurations of car-free territories and their evolution over thirty years. This serious game was tested in 2018 and 2019 in workshops with various audiences (students, general public and researchers). We propose in this article to explore three main aspects, a methodological aspect (the co-production of a model and a game), an explanation of the game sessions (playing the post-car hypothesis) and a reflection on the contribution of the serious game to the renewal of tools and reflections on the city of tomorrow (the game, a foresight tool?).; L’objectif de cet article est de proposer un retour réflexif sur une expérience de prospective urbaine couplant jeu de plateau et modélisation dynamique, au service d’une démarche participative. Inscrite dans un projet de recherche intitulé « post-car Île-de-France » (UMR Géographie-cités & Forum Vies Mobiles), cette expérience avait pour objectif de « jouer » les modalités, les conséquences et les distances à l’objectif d’une réduction drastique de la mobilité automobile. Elle repose sur la production d’un dispositif – un modèle à base d’agents et un jeu de plateau - permettant de « jouer » collectivement des configurations de territoires sans voiture et leurs évolutions sur trente ans. Ce dispositif de jeu sérieux a été expérimenté en 2018 et 2019 dans le cadre d’ateliers participatifs, avec des publics variés (étudiants, grand public et chercheurs). Nous proposons dans cet article d’explorer trois volets principaux, un volet méthodologique (la co-production d’un modèle et d’un jeu), une explication des séances de jeu elles-mêmes (jouer l’hypothèse post-car) et un volet réflexif sur la contribution potentielle du jeu sérieux au renouvellement des outils et des réflexions sur la ville de demain (le jeu, un outil de prospective ?).

Published
2021

40. Future land use changes in a peri-urban context: Local stakeholder views

Author

Markus Schläpfer, Arnaud Banos, Patrícia Abrantes, Eduardo Gomes, Jorge Rocha, Géographie-cités (GC (UMR_8504)), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Identités et Différenciation de l'Environnement des Espaces et des Sociétés (IDEES), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université Le Havre Normandie (ULH), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU), Centro de Estudos Geográficos (CEG), Universidade de Lisboa (ULISBOA), Identité et Différenciation de l’Espace, de l’Environnement et des Sociétés (IDEES), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Université Le Havre Normandie (ULH), Normandie Université (NU)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa

Subjects
Environmental Engineering, Participatory planning, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Land use/cover changes, PARIS team, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, 12. Responsible consumption, Peri-urban region, Stakeholders, Agricultural land, Scenarios, 11. Sustainability, Environmental Chemistry, Waste Management and Disposal, Environmental planning, Spatial planning, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [SHS.ARCHI]Humanities and Social Sciences/Architecture, space management, Food security, Land use, ACL, Stakeholder, Land-use planning, [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography, 15. Life on land, ScenariosPeri-urban region, Pollution, Geography, 13. Climate action, Arable land, Land use/cover change
Abstract

International audience; Future land use/cover change (LUCC) analysis has been increasingly applied to spatial planning instruments in the last few years. Nevertheless, stakeholder participation in the land use modelling process and analysis is still low. This paper describes a methodology engaging stakeholders (from the land use planning, agriculture, and forest sectors) in the building and assessment of future LUCC scenarios. We selected as case study the Torres Vedras Municipality (Portugal), a peri-urban region near Lisbon. Our analysis encompasses a participatory workshop to analyse LUCC model outcomes, based on farmer LUCC intentions, for the following scenarios: A0 - current social and economic trend (Business as Usual); A1 - regional food security; A2 - climate change; and B0 - farming under urban pressure. This analysis allowed local stakeholders to develop and discuss their own views on the most plausible future LUCC for the following land use classes: artificial surfaces, non-irrigated arable land, permanently irrigated land, permanent crops and heterogeneous agricultural land, pastures, forest and semi-natural areas, and water bodies and wetlands. Subsequently, we spatialized these LUCC views into a hybrid model (Cellular Automata - Geographic Information Systems), identifying the most suitable land conversion areas. We refer to this model, implemented in NetLogo, as the stakeholder-LUCC model.The results presented in this paper model where, when, why, and what conversions may occur in the future in regard to stakeholders' points of view. These outcomes can better enable decision-makers to perform land use planning more efficiently and develop measures to prevent undesirable futures, particularly in extreme events such as scenarios of food security, climate change, and/or farming under pressure.

Published
2020
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41. Jouer la mobilité urbaine ? Retour d'expérience sur un modèle et un jeu de fabrique d'un territoire sans voiture

Author

Arnaud BANOS, Jean Debrie, Géographie-cités (GC (UMR_8504)), and Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
CRIA, jeu, [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography, prospective, COM, modèle, Mots-clés Mobilité urbaine, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences
Abstract

International audience; Ce papier rend compte d'une démarche de prospective intitulée Post-Car Ile-de-France. Cette démarche repose sur la co-production d'un modèle multi-agents et d'un jeu de plateau mobilisable dans des séances de prospective. Elle re-vendique ainsi une approche non tendancielle apte à produire des récits urbains et à en mesurer les conséquences sur le fonc-tionnement urbain. L'intérêt de ce dispositif est discuté dans ce papier.

Published
2019

42. Modelling future land use scenarios based on farmers’ intentions and a cellular automata approach

Author

Patrícia Abrantes, Eduardo Gomes, Arnaud Banos, Jorge Rocha, Géographie-cités (GC (UMR_8504)), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centro de Estudos Geográficos (CEG), Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), Identité et Différenciation de l’Espace, de l’Environnement et des Sociétés (IDEES), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université Le Havre Normandie (ULH), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU), Laboratoire d'Excellence 'Dynamiques Territoriales et Spatiales' (LabEx DynamiTe), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis (UP8)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [Réunion])-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Nanterre (UPN)-Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales (Inalco)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Ministère de la Culture (MC)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Universidade de Lisboa (ULISBOA), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Labex Dynamite, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis (UP8)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [Réunion])-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Identités et Différenciation de l'Environnement des Espaces et des Sociétés (IDEES), and Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa

Subjects
Cellular automata, Farmers’ LUCC intentions, Markov chain, Geography, Planning and Development, 0211 other engineering and technologies, Time horizon, 02 engineering and technology, Land cover, PARIS team, 010501 environmental sciences, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, 01 natural sciences, Scenarios, Urban planning, Agricultural land, Economic impact analysis, Agricultural productivity, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Nature and Landscape Conservation, 2. Zero hunger, Land use, business.industry, ACL, Environmental resource management, 021107 urban & regional planning, Forestry, [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography, 15. Life on land, Land use strategies, Geography, Land use and cover change, Arable land, business
Abstract

Different mechanisms drive land use and land cover changes (LUCC). This paper presents an exploratory analysis aimed at understanding the complex dynamics of LUCC based on farmers’ intentions when they are faced with four scenarios with the time horizon of 2025: (1) A0 – current social and economic trend; (2) A1 – intensified agricultural production; (3) A2 – reduced agricultural production; and (4) B0 - increasing demand for urban development. LUCC models are applied to a Torres Vedras (Portugal) case study. This territory is located in a peri-urban area near Lisbon dominated by forest and agricultural land, which has been suffering considerable urban pressure in the last decades. Farmers — major agents of agricultural land use change — were interviewed to obtain their LUCC intentions according to the scenarios studied. To model LUCC a Cellular automata-Markov chain approach was applied. Our results suggest that significant LUCC will occur depending on their intentions in the different scenarios. The highlights are: (1) the highest growth in permanently irrigated land in the A1 scenario; (2) the biggest drop in non-irrigated arable land, and the highest growth in forest in the A2 scenario; and (3) the greatest urban growth was recognized in the B0 scenario. To verify if the fitting simulations performed well, techniques to measure agreement and quantity-allocation disagreements were applied.These outcomes could provide decision-makers with the capacity to observe different possible futures in ‘what if’ scenarios, allowing them to anticipate future uncertainties, and consequently allowing them the possibility to choose the more desirable future.

Published
2019
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43. A spatialised bibliometrics approach of a scientific journal production

Author

Arnaud Banos, Pierre-Olivier Chasset, Hadrien Commenges, Clémentine Cottineau, Denise Pumain, Juste Raimbault, Chasset, Pierre-Olivier, Géographie-cités (GC (UMR_8504)), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER), Centre Maurice Halbwachs (CMH), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut des Systèmes Complexes - Paris Ile-de-France (ISC-PIF), and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Curie [Paris]-Sorbonne Université (SU)-École polytechnique (X)-École normale supérieure - Cachan (ENS Cachan)-Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)

Subjects
[SHS.GEO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography, WP, [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography, PARIS team
Published
2019

44. Farming under urban pressure: Farmers' land use and land cover change intentions

Author

Arnaud Banos, Eduardo Gomes, Jorge Rocha, Patrícia Abrantes, Michael Buxton, Géographie-cités (GC (UMR_8504)), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centro de Estudos Geográficos (CEG), Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), Identité et Différenciation de l’Espace, de l’Environnement et des Sociétés (IDEES), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université Le Havre Normandie (ULH), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU), Laboratoire d'Excellence 'Dynamiques Territoriales et Spatiales' (LabEx DynamiTe), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis (UP8)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [Réunion])-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Nanterre (UPN)-Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales (Inalco)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Ministère de la Culture (MC)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University (RMIT University), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Universidade de Lisboa (ULISBOA), Identités et Différenciation de l'Environnement des Espaces et des Sociétés (IDEES), Labex Dynamite, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), and Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa

Subjects
Farmers’ LUCC intentions, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Geography, Planning and Development, 0211 other engineering and technologies, Time horizon, Urban growth, 02 engineering and technology, Land cover, PARIS team, 01 natural sciences, Cluster analysis, Order (exchange), Agricultural land, Urban planning, ANN-MPL, 11. Sustainability, Environmental planning, Spatial planning, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, Land use, business.industry, ACL, 021107 urban & regional planning, Forestry, [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography, 15. Life on land, Geography, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management, business
Abstract

International audience; Decisions about future land use are complex and involve a wide range of factors. The perceptions, intentions, and interests of the stakeholders involved are usually unpredictable. Different stakeholders manage land by choosing different future options and revealing different expectations. Greater proximity to built-up areas confronts farmers with challenges about future land use and land cover change (LUCC).This study aims to identify how external drivers can affect farmers’ future LUCC intentions focusing on conversion of agricultural land to urban development. We explore two scenarios projected for the time horizon of 2025 based on farmers’ LUCC intentions: A0 – current social and economic trend; and B0 – increasing demand for urban development. We selected the Torres Vedras municipality (Portugal) as case study, an area predominantly agricultural but with a progressively urban intensification in the past two decades. We conducted interviews to capture the farmers’ LUCC intentions and modelled an artificial neural network – a multilayered perception to allocate the potential areas for urban development. Parishes with the highest urban pressure were identified using a cluster analysis. These were compared with areas expected to be urbanized (defined in the master plan). Results suggest an increasing farming intensity in the A0 scenario, and an urban growth increase of more than 40% in the B0 scenario, with negative impacts on farming expansion. The outcomes can be applied to spatial planning instruments in order to assist planners to define land transformation priorities and adjust them to spatial trends.

Published
2019
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45. Climate Change and Healthcare Sustainability in the Agincourt Sub-District, Kruger to Canyons Biosphere Region, South Africa

Author

David Howard, Arnaud Banos, Pieter Kruger, Saul Kornik, Monika M.L. dos Santos, University of South Africa (UNISA), University of Oxford [Oxford], Géographie-cités (GC (UMR_8504)), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Identité et Différenciation de l’Espace, de l’Environnement et des Sociétés (IDEES), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université Le Havre Normandie (ULH), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU), Labex Dynamite, Africa Health Placements (AHP), Identités et Différenciation de l'Environnement des Espaces et des Sociétés (IDEES), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), University of Oxford, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'Excellence 'Dynamiques Territoriales et Spatiales' (LabEx DynamiTe), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis (UP8)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [Réunion])-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Nanterre (UPN)-Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales (Inalco)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), and HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Ministère de la Culture (MC)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Université Sorbonne Paris Nord

Subjects
Telemedicine, Geography, Planning and Development, TJ807-830, Climate change, PARIS team, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, 03 medical and health sciences, Grassroots, South Africa, 0302 clinical medicine, 11. Sustainability, Health care, GE1-350, 030212 general & internal medicine, Environmental planning, low-income communities, Agincourt, Environmental effects of industries and plants, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, business.industry, ACL, Biosphere, healthcare, [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography, sustainability, 3. Good health, Rapid assessment, Environmental sciences, climate change, healthcare system strengthening, 13. Climate action, Sustainability, Workforce, Business, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery
Abstract

International audience; As low-income communities are most vulnerable to climate-associated health concerns, access to healthcare will increase in importance as a key priority in South Africa. This study explores healthcare sustainability in the Agincourt sub-district, Kruger to Canyons Biosphere Region in Mpumalanga, South Africa. A rapid assessment and response methodology (RAR) was implemented, which includes the examination of previous studies conducted in the sub-district, the mapping of healthcare facilities in the area, and the implementation of a facility infrastructure and workforce capacity investigation by means of key informant (KI) interviews at eight healthcare facilities. Findings indicate that the greatest need across the facilities relate to access to medical doctors and pharmacists. None of the facilities factored climate associations with health into their clinical care strategies. The necessity to train healthcare facility staff on aspects related to climate change, health, and sustainability is highlighted. Environmental health practitioners should also be incorporated in grassroots community climate adaptation strategies. Outcomes further indicate the need for the advancement of integrated healthcare and climate adaptation strategies that focus on strengthening healthcare systems, which may include novel technological approaches such as telemedicine. Policy makers need to be proactive and pre-emptive in finding and improving processes and models to render healthcare services prepared for climate change.

Published
2019
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46. Agricultural land fragmentation analysis in a peri-urban context: From the past into the future

Author

Arnaud Banos, Søren Bech Pilgaard Kristensen, Patrícia Abrantes, Anne Gravsholt Busck, Eduardo Gomes, Jorge Rocha, Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa, Géographie-cités (GC (UMR_8504)), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centro de Estudos Geográficos (CEG), Universidade de Lisboa (ULISBOA), Identité et Différenciation de l’Espace, de l’Environnement et des Sociétés (IDEES), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université Le Havre Normandie (ULH), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU), Labex Dynamite, University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU), Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), Laboratoire d'Excellence 'Dynamiques Territoriales et Spatiales' (LabEx DynamiTe), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis (UP8)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [Réunion])-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Nanterre (UPN)-Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales (Inalco)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Ministère de la Culture (MC)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), and Identités et Différenciation de l'Environnement des Espaces et des Sociétés (IDEES)

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, General Decision Sciences, Context (language use), 010501 environmental sciences, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Business as usual, Land fragmentation, Agricultural land fragmentation, Cluster analysis, Agricultural land, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Spatial planning, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, Ecology, business.industry, ACL, Environmental resource management, Fragmentation (computing), Multi-layer perceptron, Driving forces, [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography, 15. Life on land, Agricultural intensification, Geography, Scale (social sciences), PARIS Team, business
Abstract

International audience; The fragmentation of agricultural land is influenced by political, economic, social, ecological and environmental factors, which affect its dynamics, patterns, structures, and functions. However, a deep analysis aimed at examining agricultural land fragmentation and its driving forces, and predicting future agricultural land fragmentation is needed. We investigated the degree of fragmentation in a case study in Torres Vedras municipality (Portugal). This territory has experienced significant agricultural land use changes in the last twenty years, mainly in the form of agricultural intensification and land fragmentation. The purposes of the study are: (1) to identify different degrees of agricultural land fragmentation; (2) to analyse and recognize underlying driving forces; (3) to identify the effect of scale; (4) and to predict agricultural land fragmentation for 2025 in a business as usual scenario. This approach concentrates on a cluster analysis to define the agricultural land fragmentation and a multi-layer perceptron to project agricultural land fragmentation. The results indicate that a 5 by 5 km scale of analysis is more efficient than 2 by 2 km to identify the most influential driving forces, in which human activities are one of the main causes of agricultural land fragmentation. In addition, the results also predict that agricultural land fragmentation will increase in 2025. These outcomes should be used to forecast agricultural land fragmentation and to reduce negative impacts.

Published
2019
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47. Chapter 3 : Macro Models, Micro Models and Network Based coupling

Author

Arnaud Banos, Nathalie Corson, Éric Daudé, Benoit Gaudou, Sébastien Rey-Coyrehourcq, Géographie-cités (GC (UMR_8504)), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Laboratoire de Mathématiques Appliquées du Havre (LMAH), Université Le Havre Normandie (ULH), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU), Identité et Différenciation de l’Espace, de l’Environnement et des Sociétés (IDEES), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université Le Havre Normandie (ULH), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU), Systèmes Multi-Agents Coopératifs (IRIT-SMAC), Institut de recherche en informatique de Toulouse (IRIT), Université Toulouse 1 Capitole (UT1), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès (UT2J)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Toulouse 1 Capitole (UT1), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Arnaud Banos, Christophe Lang, Nicolas Marilleau, Identités et Différenciation de l'Environnement des Espaces et des Sociétés (IDEES), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), and Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS)

Subjects
[INFO.INFO-CC]Computer Science [cs]/Computational Complexity [cs.CC], [INFO.INFO-MA]Computer Science [cs]/Multiagent Systems [cs.MA], COUV, [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, PARIS team, [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography, [INFO.INFO-DC]Computer Science [cs]/Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing [cs.DC], [INFO.INFO-MO]Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation, [INFO.INFO-AI]Computer Science [cs]/Artificial Intelligence [cs.AI]
Abstract

International audience; In this chapter, we will discuss coupling models with different scales to describe the propagation of a virus within a population. This population is distributed throughout a set of cities connected by airline routes. Population movements between cities enable the virus to travel, carried by infected individuals. In each city, the description of virus propagation is based on an SIR-type model (presented in more detail). The first model, called EpiSim, is presented, first in its aggregate variant, and then in its individual-based variant. Comparing these two approaches will allow us to discuss the advantages and limitations of each of them. In the second section, we will present two approaches for coupling models based on networks. The first approach considers a network of coupled systems of equations. The second combines an agent-based model of microscale components with a model of macroscale components based on systems of equations. This coupled model, called MicMac, is presented in more detail. The added value of micro/macro coupling is examined in the article.

Published
2017
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49. Chapitre 2. Un cadre conceptuel générique pour décrire des transitions dans les systèmes de peuplement

Author

Lucie Nahassia, Denise Pumain, Lena Sanders, Christophe Coupé, Arnaud Banos, Xavier Rodier, Samuel Leturcq, Florent Le Néchet, Alain Franc, Timothy A. Kohler, Jean-Marie Hombert, François Favory, Marie-Jeanne Ouriachi, Lahouari Kaddouri, Denis Phan, Robin Cura, Clara Schmitt, Pierre Garmy, Sébastien Rey-Coyrehourcq, Céline Vacchiani-Marcuzzo, Cécile Tannier, Jean-Luc Fiches, Anne Bretagnolle, Hélène Mathian, Laure Nuninger, Julie Gravier, Elisabeth Zadora-Rio, Franck Varenne, César Ducruet, Thérèse Libourel Rouge, Pierre Livet, Stefani A. Crabtree, Jacques Ferber, Elisabeth Lorans, and Frédérique Bertoncello

Published
2018
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50. Crowdsourced data collection of daily mobility with public transport disruptions. An individual-based approach assessing public transport reliability

Author

Pierre-Olivier Chasset, Arnaud BANOS, Martin Dijst, Olivier Klein, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER), Géographie-cités (GC (UMR_8504)), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)

Subjects
PARIS team, [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography, COM, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2018

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