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1. Liquid Ensemble Selection for Continual Learning

Author

Blair, Carter, Armstrong, Ben, and Larson, Kate

Subjects
Computer Science - Machine Learning, Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence
Abstract

Continual learning aims to enable machine learning models to continually learn from a shifting data distribution without forgetting what has already been learned. Such shifting distributions can be broken into disjoint subsets of related examples; by training each member of an ensemble on a different subset it is possible for the ensemble as a whole to achieve much higher accuracy with less forgetting than a naive model. We address the problem of selecting which models within an ensemble should learn on any given data, and which should predict. By drawing on work from delegative voting we develop an algorithm for using delegation to dynamically select which models in an ensemble are active. We explore a variety of delegation methods and performance metrics, ultimately finding that delegation is able to provide a significant performance boost over naive learning in the face of distribution shifts., Comment: Accepted at Canadian AI Conference 2024

Published
2024

2. Optimizing Viscous Democracy

Author

Armstrong, Ben, Alouf-Heffetz, Shiri, and Talmon, Nimrod

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society
Abstract

Viscous democracy is a generalization of liquid democracy, a social choice framework in which voters may transitively delegate their votes. In viscous democracy, a "viscosity" factor decreases the weight of a delegation the further it travels, reducing the chance of excessive weight flowing between ideologically misaligned voters. We demonstrate that viscous democracy often significantly improves the quality of group decision-making over liquid democracy. We first show that finding optimal delegations within a viscous setting is NP-hard. However, simulations allow us to explore the practical effects of viscosity. Across social network structures, competence distributions, and delegation mechanisms we find high viscosity reduces the chance of "super-voters" attaining large amounts of weight and increases the number of voters that are able to affect the outcome of elections. This, in turn, improves group accuracy as a whole. As a result, we argue that viscosity should be considered a core component of liquid democracy., Comment: To appear at IJCAI 2024

Published
2024

3. Liquid Democracy for Low-Cost Ensemble Pruning

Author

Armstrong, Ben and Larson, Kate

Subjects
Computer Science - Machine Learning, Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science - Multiagent Systems
Abstract

We argue that there is a strong connection between ensemble learning and a delegative voting paradigm -- liquid democracy -- that can be leveraged to reduce ensemble training costs. We present an incremental training procedure that identifies and removes redundant classifiers from an ensemble via delegation mechanisms inspired by liquid democracy. Through both analysis and extensive experiments we show that this process greatly reduces the computational cost of training compared to training a full ensemble. By carefully selecting the underlying delegation mechanism, weight centralization in the classifier population is avoided, leading to higher accuracy than some boosting methods. Furthermore, this work serves as an exemplar of how frameworks from computational social choice literature can be applied to problems in nontraditional domains., Comment: 30 pages, 20 figures. Extended abstract to appear at AAMAS 2024

Published
2024

4. Author Correction: Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality

Author

Lüthi, Samuel, Fairless, Christopher, Fischer, Erich M., Scovronick, Noah, Armstrong, Ben, De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline, Guo, Yue Leon, Guo, Yuming, Honda, Yasushi, Huber, Veronika, Kyselý, Jan, Lavigne, Eric, Royé, Dominic, Ryti, Niilo, Silva, Susana, Urban, Aleš, Gasparrini, Antonio, Bresch, David N., and Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.

Published
2024
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6. Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis

Author

Alahmad, Barrak, Khraishah, Haitham, Kamineni, Meghana, Royé, Dominic, Papatheodorou, Stefania I., Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Guo, Yuming, Lavigne, Eric, Armstrong, Ben, Sera, Francesco, Bernstein, Aaron S., Zanobetti, Antonella, Garshick, Eric, Schwartz, Joel, Bell, Michelle L., Al-Mulla, Fahd, Koutrakis, Petros, Gasparrini, Antonio, Achilleos, Souzana, Acquaotta, Fiorella, Pan, Shih-Chun, Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline, Colistro, Valentina, Ngoc Dang, Tran, Van Dung, Do, De’ Donato, Francesca K., Entezari, Alireza, Leon Guo, Yue-Liang, Hashizume, Masahiro, Honda, Yasushi, Indermitte, Ene, Íñiguez, Carmen, Jaakkola, Jouni J.K., Kim, Ho, Lee, Whanhee, Li, Shanshan, Madureira, Joana, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Orru, Hans, Overcenco, Ala, Ragettli, Martina S., Ryti, Niilo R.I., Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo, Scovronick, Noah, Seposo, Xerxes, Pereira Silva, Susana, Stafoggia, Massimo, and Tobias, Aurelio

Published
2024
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7. Global, regional, and national burden of heatwave-related mortality from 1990 to 2019: A three-stage modelling study

Author

Zhao, Qi, Li, Shanshan, Ye, Tingting, Wu, Yao, Gasparrini, Antonio, Tong, Shilu, Urban, Ales, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Tobias, Aurelio, Armstrong, Ben, Royé, Dominic, Lavigne, Eric, de'Donato, Francesca, Sera, Francesco, Kan, Haidong, Schwartz, Joel, Pascal, Mathilde, Ryti, Niilo, Goodman, Patrick, Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Bell, Michelle L., and Guo, Yuming

Subjects
Medical research, Medicine, Experimental, Mortality -- Environmental aspects -- China, Hot weather -- Health aspects -- Models, Biological sciences
Abstract

Background The regional disparity of heatwave-related mortality over a long period has not been sufficiently assessed across the globe, impeding the localisation of adaptation planning and risk management towards climate change. We quantified the global mortality burden associated with heatwaves at a spatial resolution of 0.5°x0.5° and the temporal change from 1990 to 2019. Methods and findings We collected data on daily deaths and temperature from 750 locations of 43 countries or regions, and 5 meta-predictors in 0.5°x0.5° resolution across the world. Heatwaves were defined as location-specific daily mean temperature [greater than or equal to]95th percentiles of year-round temperature range with duration [greater than or equal to]2 days. We first estimated the location-specific heatwave-mortality association. Secondly, a multivariate meta-regression was fitted between location-specific associations and 5 meta-predictors, which was in the third stage used with grid cell-specific meta-predictors to predict grid cell-specific association. Heatwave-related excess deaths were calculated for each grid and aggregated. During 1990 to 2019, 0.94% (95% CI: 0.68-1.19) of deaths [i.e., 153,078 cases (95% eCI: 109,950-194,227)] per warm season were estimated to be from heatwaves, accounting for 236 (95% eCI: 170-300) deaths per 10 million residents. The ratio between heatwave-related excess deaths and all premature deaths per warm season remained relatively unchanged over the 30 years, while the number of heatwave-related excess deaths per 10 million residents per warm season declined by 7.2% per decade in comparison to the 30-year average. Locations with the highest heatwave-related death ratio and rate were in Southern and Eastern Europe or areas had polar and alpine climates, and/or their residents had high incomes. The temporal change of heatwave-related mortality burden showed geographic disparities, such that locations with tropical climate or low incomes were observed with the greatest decline. The main limitation of this study was the lack of data from certain regions, e.g., Arabian Peninsula and South Asia. Conclusions Heatwaves were associated with substantial mortality burden that varied spatiotemporally over the globe in the past 30 years. The findings indicate the potential benefit of governmental actions to enhance health sector adaptation and resilience, accounting for inequalities across communities., Author(s): Qi Zhao 1,2, Shanshan Li 2,*, Tingting Ye 2, Yao Wu 2, Antonio Gasparrini 3, Shilu Tong 4,5, Ales Urban 6,7, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera 8,9, Aurelio Tobias 10, Ben [...]

Published
2024
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8. Temporal variations in the short-term effects of ambient air pollution on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality: a pooled analysis of 380 urban areas over a 22-year period

Author

Kan, Haidong, Osorio, Samuel, Orru, Hans, Indermitte, Ene, Maasikmets, Marek, Ryti, Niilo, Pascal, Mathilde, Katsouyanni, Klea, Analitis, Antonis, Entezari, Alireza, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Kim, Yoonhee, Alahmad, Barrak, Hurtado Diaz, Magali, Félix Arellano, Eunice Elizabeth, Rao, Shilpa, Diz-Lois Palomares, Alfonso, Scovronick, Noah, Acquaotta, Fiorella, Kim, Ho, Lee, Whanhee, Íñiguez, Carmen, Forsberg, Bertil, Ragettli, Martina S, Guo, Yue Leon, Pan, Shih-Chun, Li, Shanshan, Zanobetti, Antonella, Schwarz, Maximilian, Peters, Annette, Stafoggia, Massimo, de'Donato, Francesca, Sera, Francesco, Bell, Michelle L, Guo, Yuming, Honda, Yasushi, Huber, Veronika, Jaakkola, Jouni J K, Urban, Aleš, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Masselot, Pierre, Lavigne, Eric, Achilleos, Souzana, Kyselý, Jan, Samoli, Evangelia, Hashizume, Masahiro, Fook Sheng Ng, Chris, das Neves Pereira da Silva, Susana, Madureira, Joana, Garland, Rebecca M, Tobias, Aurelio, Armstrong, Ben, Schwartz, Joel, Gasparrini, Antonio, Schneider, Alexandra, and Breitner, Susanne

Published
2024
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11. Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature

Author

Overcenco, Ala, Urban, Aleš, Schneider, Alexandra, Entezari, Alireza, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Zanobetti, Antonella, Analitis, Antonis, Zeka, Ariana, Tobias, Aurelio, Nunes, Baltazar, Alahmad, Barrak, Forsberg, Bertil, Íñiguez, Carmen, Ameling, Caroline, la Cruz Valencia, César De, Houthuijs, Danny, Van Dung, Do, Roye, Dominic, Indermitte, Ene, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Acquaotta, Fiorella, de'Donato, Francesca, Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel, Kan, Haidong, Carlsen, Hanne Krage, Orru, Hans, Kim, Ho, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, Kyselý, Jan, Madureira, Joana, Schwartz, Joel, Jaakkola, Jouni J.K., Katsouyanni, Klea, Diaz, Magali Hurtado, Ragettli, Martina S., Hashizume, Masahiro, Pascal, Mathilde, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline, Ortega, Nicolás Valdés, Ryti, Niilo, Scovronick, Noah, Michelozzi, Paola, Correa, Patricia Matus, Goodman, Patrick, Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario, Raz, Raanan, Abrutzky, Rosana, Osorio, Samuel, Pan, Shih-Chun, Rao, Shilpa, Tong, Shilu, Achilleos, Souzana, Dang, Tran Ngoc, Colistro, Valentina, Huber, Veronika, Lee, Whanhee, Seposo, Xerxes, Honda, Yasushi, Kim, Yoonhee, Guo, Yue Leon, Li, Shanshan, Guo, Yuming, Wu, Yao, Wen, Bo, Gasparrini, Antonio, Armstrong, Ben, Sera, Francesco, and Lavigne, Eric

Published
2024
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12. Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study

Author

Wen, Bo, Wu, Yao, Guo, Yuming, Gasparrini, Antonio, Tong, Shilu, Overcenco, Ala, Urban, Aleš, Schneider, Alexandra, Entezari, Alireza, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Zanobetti, Antonella, Analitis, Antonis, Zeka, Ariana, Tobias, Aurelio, Nunes, Baltazar, Alahmad, Barrak, Armstrong, Ben, Forsberg, Bertil, Pan, Shih-Chun, Íñiguez, Carmen, Ameling, Caroline, Valencia, César De la Cruz, Åström, Christofer, Houthuijs, Danny, Van Dung, Do, Royé, Dominic, Indermitte, Ene, Lavigne, Eric, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Acquaotta, Fiorella, de’Donato, Francesca, Rao, Shilpa, Sera, Francesco, Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel, Kan, Haidong, Orru, Hans, Kim, Ho, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, Kyselý, Jan, Madureira, Joana, Schwartz, Joel, Jaakkola, Jouni J.K., Katsouyanni, Klea, Diaz, Magali Hurtado, Ragettli, Martina S., Hashizume, Masahiro, Pascal, Mathilde, Coélho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, Ortega, Nicolás Valdés, Ryti, Niilo, Scovronick, Noah, Michelozzi, Paola, Matus Correa, Patricia, Goodman, Patrick, Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Raz, Raanan, Abrutzky, Rosana, Osorio, Samuel, Dang, Tran Ngoc, Colistro, Valentina, Huber, Veronika, Lee, Whanhee, Seposo, Xerxes, Honda, Yasushi, Kim, Yoonhee, Guo, Yue Leon, Bell, Michelle L., and Li, Shanshan

Published
2024
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13. Pain-causing stinging nettle toxins target TMEM233 to modulate NaV1.7 function

Author

Jami, Sina, Deuis, Jennifer R., Klasfauseweh, Tabea, Cheng, Xiaoyang, Kurdyukov, Sergey, Chung, Felicity, Okorokov, Andrei L., Li, Shengnan, Zhang, Jiangtao, Cristofori-Armstrong, Ben, Israel, Mathilde R., Ju, Robert J., Robinson, Samuel D., Zhao, Peng, Ragnarsson, Lotten, Andersson, Åsa, Tran, Poanna, Schendel, Vanessa, McMahon, Kirsten L., Tran, Hue N. T., Chin, Yanni K.-Y., Zhu, Yifei, Liu, Junyu, Crawford, Theo, Purushothamvasan, Saipriyaa, Habib, Abdella M., Andersson, David A., Rash, Lachlan D., Wood, John N., Zhao, Jing, Stehbens, Samantha J., Mobli, Mehdi, Leffler, Andreas, Jiang, Daohua, Cox, James J., Waxman, Stephen G., Dib-Hajj, Sulayman D., Neely, G. Gregory, Durek, Thomas, and Vetter, Irina

Published
2023
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14. Tropical cyclone-specific mortality risks and the periods of concern: A multicountry time-series study

Author

Huang, Wenzhong, Yang, Zhengyu, Zhang, Yiwen, Vogt, Thomas, Armstrong, Ben, Yu, Wenhua, Xu, Rongbin, Yu, Pei, Liu, Yanming, Gasparrini, Antonio, Hundessa, Samuel, Lavigne, Eric, Molina, Tomas, Geiger, Tobias, Guo, Yue Leon, Otto, Christian, Hales, Simon, Pourzand, Farnaz, Pan, Shih-Chun, Ju, Ke, Ritchie, Elizabeth A., Li, Shanshan, and Guo, Yuming

Subjects
Mortality -- Forecasts and trends -- Prevention -- Australia, Tropical cyclones -- Health aspects -- Environmental aspects, Chronic diseases -- Risk factors -- Prevention, Epidemiology -- Analysis, Market trend/market analysis, Biological sciences
Abstract

Background More intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected in the future under a warming climate scenario, but little is known about their mortality effect pattern across countries and over decades. We aim to evaluate the TC-specific mortality risks, periods of concern (POC) and characterize the spatiotemporal pattern and exposure-response (ER) relationships on a multicountry scale. Methods and findings Daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality among the general population were collected from 494 locations in 18 countries or territories during 1980 to 2019. Daily TC exposures were defined when the maximum sustained windspeed associated with a TC was [greater than or equal to]34 knots using a parametric wind field model at a 0.5° x 0.5° resolution. We first estimated the TC-specific mortality risks and POC using an advanced flexible statistical framework of mixed Poisson model, accounting for the population changes, natural variation, seasonal and day of the week effects. Then, a mixed meta-regression model was used to pool the TC-specific mortality risks to estimate the overall and country-specific ER relationships of TC characteristics (windspeed, rainfall, and year) with mortality. Overall, 47.7 million all-cause, 15.5 million cardiovascular, and 4.9 million respiratory deaths and 382 TCs were included in our analyses. An overall average POC of around 20 days was observed for TC-related all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality, with relatively longer POC for the United States of America, Brazil, and Taiwan (>30 days). The TC-specific relative risks (RR) varied substantially, ranging from 1.04 to 1.42, 1.07 to 1.77, and 1.12 to 1.92 among the top 100 TCs with highest RRs for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. At country level, relatively higher TC-related mortality risks were observed in Guatemala, Brazil, and New Zealand for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. We found an overall monotonically increasing and approximately linear ER curve of TC-related maximum sustained windspeed and cumulative rainfall with mortality, with heterogeneous patterns across countries and regions. The TC-related mortality risks were generally decreasing from 1980 to 2019, especially for the Philippines, Taiwan, and the USA, whereas potentially increasing trends in TC-related all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risks were observed for Japan. Conclusions The TC mortality risks and POC varied greatly across TC events, locations, and countries. To minimize the TC-related health burdens, targeted strategies are particularly needed for different countries and regions, integrating epidemiological evidence on region-specific POC and ER curves that consider across-TC variability., Author(s): Wenzhong Huang 1, Zhengyu Yang 1, Yiwen Zhang 1, Thomas Vogt 2, Ben Armstrong 3, Wenhua Yu 1, Rongbin Xu 1, Pei Yu 1, Yanming Liu 1, Antonio Gasparrini [...]

Published
2024
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15. Fluctuating risk of acute kidney injury-related mortality for four weeks after exposure to air pollution: A multi-country time-series study in 6 countries

Author

Min, Jieun, Kang, Duk-Hee, Kang, Cinoo, Bell, Michelle L., Kim, Ho, Yang, Juyeon, Gasparrini, Antonio, Lavigne, Eric, Hashizume, Masahiro, Kim, Yoonhee, Fook Sheng Ng, Chris, Honda, Yasushi, das Neves Pereira da Silva, Susana, Madureira, Joana, Leon Guo, Yue, Pan, Shih-Chun, Armstrong, Ben, Sera, Francesco, Masselot, Pierre, Schwartz, Joel, Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana, Pyo Lee, Jung, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Won Lee, Jung, Kwag, Youngrin, Ha, Eunhee, and Lee, Whanhee

Published
2024
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16. Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries

Author

Stafoggia, Massimo, Michelozzi, Paola, Schneider, Alexandra, Armstrong, Ben, Scortichini, Matteo, Rai, Masna, Achilleos, Souzana, Alahmad, Barrak, Analitis, Antonis, Åström, Christofer, Bell, Michelle L., Calleja, Neville, Krage Carlsen, Hanne, Carrasco, Gabriel, Paul Cauchi, John, DSZS Coelho, Micheline, Correa, Patricia M., Diaz, Magali H., Entezari, Alireza, Forsberg, Bertil, Garland, Rebecca M., Leon Guo, Yue, Guo, Yuming, Hashizume, Masahiro, Holobaca, Iulian H., Íñiguez, Carmen, Jaakkola, Jouni J.K., Kan, Haidong, Katsouyanni, Klea, Kim, Ho, Kyselý, Jan, Lavigne, Eric, Lee, Whanhee, Li, Shanshan, Maasikmets, Marek, Madureira, Joana, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Fook Sheng Ng, Chris, Nunes, Baltazar, Orru, Hans, V Ortega, Nicolás, Osorio, Samuel, Palomares, Alfonso D.L., Pan, Shih-Chun, Pascal, Mathilde, Ragettli, Martina S, Rao, Shilpa, Raz, Raanan, Roye, Dominic, Ryti, Niilo, HN Saldiva, Paulo, Samoli, Evangelia, Schwartz, Joel, Scovronick, Noah, Sera, Francesco, Tobias, Aurelio, Tong, Shilu, DLC Valencia, César, Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana, Urban, Aleš, Gasparrini, Antonio, Breitner, Susanne, and de' Donato, Francesca K.

Published
2023
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17. Global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019: a multi-country time-series study

Author

Huang, Wenzhong, Li, Shanshan, Vogt, Thomas, Xu, Rongbin, Tong, Shilu, Molina, Tomás, Masselot, Pierre, Gasparrini, Antonio, Armstrong, Ben, Pascal, Mathilde, Royé, Dominic, Sheng Ng, Chris Fook, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Schwartz, Joel, Lavigne, Eric, Kan, Haidong, Goodman, Patrick, Zeka, Ariana, Hashizume, Masahiro, Diaz, Magali Hurtado, De la Cruz Valencia, César, Seposo, Xerxes, Nunes, Baltazar, Madureira, Joana, Kim, Ho, Lee, Whanhee, Tobias, Aurelio, Íñiguez, Carmen, Guo, Yue Leon, Pan, Shih-Chun, Zanobetti, Antonella, Dang, Tran Ngoc, Van Dung, Do, Geiger, Tobias, Otto, Christian, Johnson, Amanda, Hales, Simon, Yu, Pei, Yang, Zhengyu, Ritchie, Elizabeth A, and Guo, Yuming

Published
2023
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18. Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe

Author

Achilleos, Souzana, Kyselý, Jan, Indermitte, Ene, Jaakkola, Jouni J.K., Ryti, Niilo, Pascal, Mathilde, Katsouyanni, Klea, Analitis, Antonis, Goodman, Patrick, Zeka, Ariana, Michelozzi, Paola, Houthuijs, Danny, Ameling, Caroline, Rao, Shilpa, das Neves Pereira da Silva, Susana, Madureira, Joana, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, Tobias, Aurelio, Íñiguez, Carmen, Forsberg, Bertil, Åström, Christofer, Ragettli, Martina S., Surname, First name, Zafeiratou, Sofia, Vazquez Fernandez, Liliana, Monteiro, Ana, Rai, Masna, Zhang, Siqi, Aunan, Kristin, Masselot, Pierre, Mistry, Malcolm, Vanoli, Jacopo, Schneider, Rochelle, Iungman, Tamara, Garcia-Leon, David, Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, Feyen, Luc, Orru, Hans, Urban, Aleš, Breitner, Susanne, Huber, Veronika, Schneider, Alexandra, Samoli, Evangelia, Stafoggia, Massimo, de’Donato, Francesca, Armstrong, Ben, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, and Gasparrini, Antonio

Published
2023
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19. The association of COVID-19 incidence with temperature, humidity, and UV radiation – A global multi-city analysis

Author

Nottmeyer, Luise, Armstrong, Ben, Lowe, Rachel, Abbott, Sam, Meakin, Sophie, O'Reilly, Kathleen M., von Borries, Rosa, Schneider, Rochelle, Royé, Dominic, Hashizume, Masahiro, Pascal, Mathilde, Tobias, Aurelio, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Lavigne, Eric, Correa, Patricia Matus, Ortega, Nicolás Valdés, Kynčl, Jan, Urban, Aleš, Orru, Hans, Ryti, Niilo, Jaakkola, Jouni, Dallavalle, Marco, Schneider, Alexandra, Honda, Yasushi, Ng, Chris Fook Sheng, Alahmad, Barrak, Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel, Holobâc, Iulian Horia, Kim, Ho, Lee, Whanhee, Íñiguez, Carmen, Bell, Michelle L., Zanobetti, Antonella, Schwartz, Joel, Scovronick, Noah, Coélho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Diaz, Magali Hurtado, Gasparrini, Antonio, and Sera, Francesco

Published
2023
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20. Siri Humphrey: Design Principles for an AI Policy Analyst

Author

Armstrong, Ben, Beretta, Megan, Crothers, Evan, Karlin, Michael, Kim, Dongwoo, Longo, Justin, Powell, Lorne, and Sanders, Trooper

Subjects
UCLA AI Pulse, artificial intelligence policy analyst (AIPA)
Abstract

This workgroup considered whether the policy analysis function in government could be replaced by an artificial intelligence policy analyst (AIPA) that responds directly to requests for information and decision support from political and administrative leaders. We describe the current model for policy analysis, identify the design criteria for an AIPA, and consider its limitations should it be adopted. A core limitation is the essential human interaction between a decision maker and an analyst/advisor, which extends the meaning and purpose of policy analysis beyond a simple synthesis or technical analysis view (each of which is nonetheless a complex task in its own right). Rather than propose a wholesale replacement of policy analysts with AIPA, we reframe the question focussing on the use of AI by human policy analysts for augmenting their current work, what we term intelligence-amplified policy analysis (IAPA). We conclude by considering how policy analysts, schools of public affairs, and institutions of government will need to adapt to the changing nature of policy analysis in an era of increasingly capable AI.

Published
2019

21. Could AI Drive Transformative Social Progress? What Would This Require?

Author

Parson, Edward, Lempert, Robert, Armstrong, Ben, Crothers, Evan, DeChant, Chad, and Novelli, Nick

Subjects
UCLA AI Pulse, artificial intelligence, transformative technology, social impact of AI
Abstract

The potential societal impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) and related technologiesare so vast, they are often likened to those of past transformative technologicalchanges such as the industrial or agricultural revolutions. They are also deeplyuncertain, presenting a wide range of possibilities for good or ill – as indeed thediverse technologies lumped under the term AI are themselves diffuse, labile, anduncertain. Speculation about AI’s broad social impacts ranges from full-on utopia todystopia, both in fictional and non-fiction accounts. Narrowing the field of view fromaggregate impacts to particular impacts and their mechanisms, there is substantial(but far from total) agreement on some – e.g., profound disruption of labor markets,with the prospect of unemployment that is novel in scale and breadth – but greatuncertainty on others, even as to sign. Will AI concentrate or distribute economicand political power – and if concentrate, then in whom? Will it make human lives andsocieties more diverse or more uniform? Expand or contract individual liberty?Enrich or degrade human capabilities? On all these points, the range of presentspeculation is vast.

Published
2019

22. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study

Author

Wu, Yao, Li, Shanshan, Zhao, Qi, Wen, Bo, Gasparrini, Antonio, Tong, Shilu, Overcenco, Ala, Urban, Aleš, Schneider, Alexandra, Entezari, Alireza, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Zanobetti, Antonella, Analitis, Antonis, Zeka, Ariana, Tobias, Aurelio, Nunes, Baltazar, Alahmad, Barrak, Armstrong, Ben, Forsberg, Bertil, Pan, Shih-Chun, Íñiguez, Carmen, Ameling, Caroline, De la Cruz Valencia, César, Åström, Christofer, Houthuijs, Danny, Van Dung, Do, Royé, Dominic, Indermitte, Ene, Lavigne, Eric, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Acquaotta, Fiorella, de'Donato, Francesca, Rao, Shilpa, Sera, Francesco, Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel, Kan, Haidong, Orru, Hans, Kim, Ho, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, Kyselý, Jan, Madureira, Joana, Schwartz, Joel, Jaakkola, Jouni J K, Katsouyanni, Klea, Hurtado Diaz, Magali, Ragettli, Martina S, Hashizume, Masahiro, Pascal, Mathilde, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline, Ortega, Nicolás Valdés, Ryti, Niilo, Scovronick, Noah, Michelozzi, Paola, Correa, Patricia Matus, Goodman, Patrick, Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario, Abrutzky, Rosana, Osorio, Samuel, Dang, Tran Ngoc, Colistro, Valentina, Huber, Veronika, Lee, Whanhee, Seposo, Xerxes, Honda, Yasushi, Guo, Yue Leon, Bell, Michelle L, and Guo, Yuming

Published
2022
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23. Author Correction: Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling temperature-related mortality

Author

Mistry, Malcolm N., Schneider, Rochelle, Masselot, Pierre, Royé, Dominic, Armstrong, Ben, Kyselý, Jan, Orru, Hans, Sera, Francesco, Tong, Shilu, Lavigne, Éric, Urban, Aleš, Madureira, Joana, García-León, David, Ibarreta, Dolores, Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, Feyen, Luc, de Schrijver, Evan, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline, Pascal, Mathilde, Tobias, Aurelio, Guo, Yuming, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M., and Gasparrini, Antonio

Published
2022
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24. Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling temperature-related mortality

Author

Mistry, Malcolm N., Schneider, Rochelle, Masselot, Pierre, Royé, Dominic, Armstrong, Ben, Kyselý, Jan, Orru, Hans, Sera, Francesco, Tong, Shilu, Lavigne, Éric, Urban, Aleš, Madureira, Joana, García-León, David, Ibarreta, Dolores, Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, Feyen, Luc, de Schrijver, Evan, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline, Pascal, Mathilde, Tobias, Aurelio, Guo, Yuming, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M., and Gasparrini, Antonio

Published
2022
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26. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000-19 : a three-stage modelling study

Author

Gao, Yuan, Huang, Wenzhong, Zhao, Qi, Ryti, Niilo, Armstrong, Ben, Gasparrini, Antonio, Tong, Shilu, Pascal, Mathilde, Urban, Aleš, Zeka, Ariana, Lavigne, Eric, Madureira, Joana, Goodman, Patrick, Huber, Veronika, Forsberg, Bertil, Kyselý, Jan, Sera, Francesco, Guo, Yuming, Li, Shanshan, Gao, Yuan, Huang, Wenzhong, Zhao, Qi, Ryti, Niilo, Armstrong, Ben, Gasparrini, Antonio, Tong, Shilu, Pascal, Mathilde, Urban, Aleš, Zeka, Ariana, Lavigne, Eric, Madureira, Joana, Goodman, Patrick, Huber, Veronika, Forsberg, Bertil, Kyselý, Jan, Sera, Francesco, Guo, Yuming, and Li, Shanshan

Abstract

Background: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. Methods: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model with a lag period of up to 21 days. Second, we built a multivariate meta-regression model between location-specific associations and seven predictors. Finally, we predicted the global grid-specific cold spell-related mortality associations during 2000-19 using the fitted meta-regression model and the yearly grid-specific meta-predictors. We calculated the annual excess deaths, excess death ratio (excess deaths per 1000 deaths), and excess death rate (excess deaths per 100 000 population) due to cold spells for each grid across the world. Findings: Globally, 205 932 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 162 692-250 337) excess deaths, representing 3·81 (95% eCI 2·93-4·71) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio), and 3·03 (2·33-3·75) excess deaths per 100 000 population (excess death rate) were associated with cold spells per year between 2000 and 2019. The annual average global excess death ratio in 2016-19 increased by 0·12 percentage points and the excess death rate in 2016-19 increased by 0·18 percentage points, compared with those in 2000-03. The mortality burden varied geographically. The excess death ratio and rate were highest in Europe, whereas these indicators were lowest in Africa. Temperate climates had higher excess death ratio and rate associated with cold spells than other climate zones. Interpretation: Cold spells are associated with substantial mortality burden around the world with geographically varying patterns. Although the number of cold spells has on av

Published
2024
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27. Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

Author

Madaniyazi, Lina, Armstrong, Ben, Tobias, Aurelio, Mistry, Malcolm N., Bell, Michelle L., Urban, Aleš, Kyselý, Jan, Ryti, Niilo, Cvijanovic, Ivana, Ng, Chris Fook Sheng, Roye, Dominic, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Tong, Shilu, Lavigne, Eric, Íñiguez, Carmen, da Silva, Susana das Neves Pereira, Madureira, Joana, Jaakkola, Jouni J. K., Sera, Francesco, Honda, Yasushi, Gasparrini, Antonio, Hashizume, Masahiro, Madaniyazi, Lina, Armstrong, Ben, Tobias, Aurelio, Mistry, Malcolm N., Bell, Michelle L., Urban, Aleš, Kyselý, Jan, Ryti, Niilo, Cvijanovic, Ivana, Ng, Chris Fook Sheng, Roye, Dominic, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Tong, Shilu, Lavigne, Eric, Íñiguez, Carmen, da Silva, Susana das Neves Pereira, Madureira, Joana, Jaakkola, Jouni J. K., Sera, Francesco, Honda, Yasushi, Gasparrini, Antonio, and Hashizume, Masahiro

Abstract

Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones.

Published
2024

28. Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature

Author

Wu, Yao, Wen, Bo, Gasparrini, Antonio, Armstrong, Ben, Sera, Francesco, Lavigne, Eric, Li, Shanshan, Guo, Yuming, Wu, Yao, Wen, Bo, Gasparrini, Antonio, Armstrong, Ben, Sera, Francesco, Lavigne, Eric, Li, Shanshan, and Guo, Yuming

Abstract

Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979-2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17-13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56-14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27-15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics.

Published
2024

29. Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study

Author

European Commission, 0000-0002-8105-0522, 0000-0002-2271-3568, 0000-0002-6970-9216, 0000-0002-1084-2442, 0000-0001-6428-6755, 0000-0003-2362-3940, 0000-0003-3471-4928, 0000-0002-2225-9457, 0000-0002-8890-6848, 0000-0002-1871-8999, 0000-0002-6170-1287, 0000-0001-5279-877X, 0000-0001-7417-3287, 0000-0001-7869-3909, 0000-0003-2248-1629, 0000-0003-2517-1087, 0000-0002-3965-1359, Wen, Bo, Wu, Yao, Guo, Yuming, Gasparrini, Antonio, Tong, Shilu, Overcenco, Ala, Urban, Aleš, Schneider, Alexandra, Entezari, Alireza, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Zanobetti, Antonella, Analitis, Antonis, Zeka, Ariana, Tobias, Aurelio, Nunes, Baltazar, Alahmad, Barrak, Armstrong, Ben, Forsberg, Bertil, Pan, Shih-Chun, Íñiguez, Carmen, Ameling, Caroline, Valencia, César De la Cruz, Åström, Christofer, Houthuijs, Danny, Van Dung, Do, Royé, Dominic, Indermitte, Ene, Lavigne, Eric, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Acquaotta, Fiorella, de'Donato, Francesca, Rao, Shilpa, Sera, Francesco, Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel, Kan, Haidong, Orru, Hans, Kim, Ho, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, Kyselý, Jan, Madureira, Joana, Schwartz, Joel, Jaakkola, Jouni J. K., Katsouyanni, Klea, Diaz, Magali Hurtado, Ragettli, Martina S., Hashizume, Masahiro, Pascal, Mathilde, Coélho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, Ortega, Nicolás Valdés, Ryti, Niilo, Scovronick, Noah, Michelozzi, Paola, Matus Correa, Patricia, Goodman, Patrick, Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Raz, Raanan, Abrutzky, Rosana, Osorio, Samuel, Dang, Tran Ngoc, Colistro, Valentina, Huber, Veronika, Lee, Whanhee, Seposo, Xerxes, Honda, Yasushi, Kim, Yoonhee, Guo, Yue Leon, Bell, Michelle L., Li, Shanshan, European Commission, 0000-0002-8105-0522, 0000-0002-2271-3568, 0000-0002-6970-9216, 0000-0002-1084-2442, 0000-0001-6428-6755, 0000-0003-2362-3940, 0000-0003-3471-4928, 0000-0002-2225-9457, 0000-0002-8890-6848, 0000-0002-1871-8999, 0000-0002-6170-1287, 0000-0001-5279-877X, 0000-0001-7417-3287, 0000-0001-7869-3909, 0000-0003-2248-1629, 0000-0003-2517-1087, 0000-0002-3965-1359, Wen, Bo, Wu, Yao, Guo, Yuming, Gasparrini, Antonio, Tong, Shilu, Overcenco, Ala, Urban, Aleš, Schneider, Alexandra, Entezari, Alireza, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Zanobetti, Antonella, Analitis, Antonis, Zeka, Ariana, Tobias, Aurelio, Nunes, Baltazar, Alahmad, Barrak, Armstrong, Ben, Forsberg, Bertil, Pan, Shih-Chun, Íñiguez, Carmen, Ameling, Caroline, Valencia, César De la Cruz, Åström, Christofer, Houthuijs, Danny, Van Dung, Do, Royé, Dominic, Indermitte, Ene, Lavigne, Eric, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Acquaotta, Fiorella, de'Donato, Francesca, Rao, Shilpa, Sera, Francesco, Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel, Kan, Haidong, Orru, Hans, Kim, Ho, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, Kyselý, Jan, Madureira, Joana, Schwartz, Joel, Jaakkola, Jouni J. K., Katsouyanni, Klea, Diaz, Magali Hurtado, Ragettli, Martina S., Hashizume, Masahiro, Pascal, Mathilde, Coélho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, Ortega, Nicolás Valdés, Ryti, Niilo, Scovronick, Noah, Michelozzi, Paola, Matus Correa, Patricia, Goodman, Patrick, Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Raz, Raanan, Abrutzky, Rosana, Osorio, Samuel, Dang, Tran Ngoc, Colistro, Valentina, Huber, Veronika, Lee, Whanhee, Seposo, Xerxes, Honda, Yasushi, Kim, Yoonhee, Guo, Yue Leon, Bell, Michelle L., and Li, Shanshan

Abstract

Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects.

Published
2024

30. Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association around the globe

Author

Wu, Yao, Wen, Bo, Li, Shanshan, Gasparrini, Antonio, Tong, Shilu, Overcenco, Ala, Urban, Aleš, Schneider, Alexandra, Entezari, Alireza, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Zanobetti, Antonella, Analitis, Antonis, Zeka, Ariana, Tobias, Aurelio, Alahmad, Barrak, Armstrong, Ben, Forsberg, Bertil, Íñiguez, Carmen, Ameling, Caroline, De la Cruz Valencia, César, Åström, Christofer, Houthuijs, Danny, Van Dung, Do, Royé, Dominic, Indermitte, Ene, Lavigne, Eric, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Acquaotta, Fiorella, de’Donato, Francesca, Sera, Francesco, Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel, Kan, Haidong, Orru, Hans, Kim, Ho, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, Kyselý, Jan, Madureira, Joana, Schwartz, Joel, Katsouyanni, Klea, Hurtado-Diaz, Magali, Ragettli, Martina S., Hashizume, Masahiro, Pascal, Mathilde, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline, Scovronick, Noah, Michelozzi, Paola, Goodman, Patrick, Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario, Abrutzky, Rosana, Osorio, Samuel, Dang, Tran Ngoc, Colistro, Valentina, Huber, Veronika, Lee, Whanhee, Seposo, Xerxes, Honda, Yasushi, Bell, Michelle L., and Guo, Yuming

Published
2022
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31. Mortality Risk of Hot Nights: A Nationwide Population-Based Retrospective Study in Japan

Author

Kim, Satbyul Estella, Hashizume, Masahiro, Armstrong, Ben, Gasparrini, Antonio, Oka, Kazutaka, Hijioka, Yasuaki, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M., and Honda, Yasushi

Subjects
Mortality -- Risk factors -- Environmental aspects -- Japan, Hot weather -- Health aspects, Environmental issues, Health
Abstract

Background: The health effects of heat are well documented; however, limited information is available regarding the health risks of hot nights. Hot nights have become more common, increasing at a faster rate than hot days, making it urgent to understand the characteristics of the hot night risk. Objectives: We estimated the effects of hot nights on the cause- and location-specific mortality in a nationwide assessment over 43 y (1973-2015) using a unified analytical framework in the 47 prefectures of Japan. Methods: Hot nights were defined as days with a) minimum temperature [greater than or equal to]25[degrees]C (H[N.sub.25]) and b) minimum temperature [greater than or equal to]95th percentile (H[N.sub.95th]) for the prefecture. We conducted a time-series analysis using a two-stage approach during the hot night occurrence season (April-November). For each prefecture, we estimated associations between hot nights and mortality controlling for potential confounders including daily mean temperature. We then used a random-effects meta-analytic model to estimate the pooled cumulative association. Results: Overall, 24,721,226 deaths were included in this study. Nationally, all-cause mortality increased by 9%- 10% [H[N.sub.25] relative risk (RR) = 1.09, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08, 1.10; H[N.sub.95th] RR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.11] during hot nights in comparison with non hot nights. All 11 cause-specific mortalities were strongly associated with hot nights, and the corresponding associations appeared to be acute and lasted a few weeks, depending on the cause of death. The strength of the association between hot nights and mortality varied among prefectures. We found a higher mortality risk from hot nights in early summer in comparison with the late summer in all regions. Conclusions: Our findings support the evidence of mortality impacts from hot nights in excess of that explicable by daily mean temperature and have implications useful for establishing public health policy and research efforts estimating the health effects of climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11444, Introduction Due to progressing global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events have increased, and hot days and nights are expected to be more frequent in the near [...]

Published
2023
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34. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study

Author

Gao, Yuan, primary, Huang, Wenzhong, additional, Zhao, Qi, additional, Ryti, Niilo, additional, Armstrong, Ben, additional, Gasparrini, Antonio, additional, Tong, Shilu, additional, Pascal, Mathilde, additional, Urban, Aleš, additional, Zeka, Ariana, additional, Lavigne, Eric, additional, Madureira, Joana, additional, Goodman, Patrick, additional, Huber, Veronika, additional, Forsberg, Bertil, additional, Kyselý, Jan, additional, Sera, Francesco, additional, Guo, Yuming, additional, Li, Shanshan, additional, Gao, Yuan, additional, Bell, Michelle, additional, Hales, Simon, additional, Honda, Yasushi, additional, Jaakkola, Jouni J.K., additional, Tobias, Aurelio, additional, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, additional, Abrutzky, Rosana, additional, Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, additional, Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento, additional, Correa, Patricia Matus, additional, Ortega, Nicolás Valdés, additional, Kan, Haidong, additional, Osorio, Samuel, additional, Roye, Dominic, additional, Orru, Hans, additional, Indermitte, Ene, additional, Schneider, Alexandra, additional, Katsouyanni, Klea, additional, Analitis, Antonis, additional, Carlsen, Hanne Krage, additional, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, additional, Roradeh, Hematollah, additional, Raz, Raanan, additional, Michelozzi, Paola, additional, de'Donato, Francesca, additional, Hashizume, Masahiro, additional, Kim, Yoonhee, additional, Alahmad, Barrak, additional, Cauchy, John Paul, additional, Diaz, Magali Hurtado, additional, Arellano, Eunice Elizabeth Félix, additional, Valencia, César De la Cruz, additional, Overcenco, Ala, additional, Houthuijs, Danny, additional, Ameling, Caroline, additional, Rao, Shilpa, additional, Carrasco, Gabriel, additional, Seposo, Xerxes, additional, Chua, Paul Lester Carlos, additional, Silva, Susana das Neves Pereira da, additional, Nunes, Baltazar, additional, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, additional, Cvijanovic, Ivana, additional, Mistry, Malcolm, additional, Scovronick, Noah, additional, Acquaotta, Fiorella, additional, Kim, Ho, additional, Lee, Whanhee, additional, Íñiguez, Carmen, additional, Åström, Christofer, additional, Ragettli, Martina S., additional, Guo, Yue Leon, additional, Pan, Shih-Chun, additional, Colistro, Valentina, additional, Zanobetti, Antonella, additional, Schwartz, Joel, additional, Dang, Tran Ngoc, additional, and Dung, Do Van, additional

Published
2024
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35. Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

Author

Madaniyazi, Lina, primary, Armstrong, Ben, additional, Tobias, Aurelio, additional, Mistry, Malcolm N, additional, Bell, Michelle L, additional, Urban, Aleš, additional, Kyselý, Jan, additional, Ryti, Niilo, additional, Cvijanovic, Ivana, additional, Ng, Chris Fook Sheng, additional, Roye, Dominic, additional, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, additional, Tong, Shilu, additional, Lavigne, Eric, additional, Íñiguez, Carmen, additional, da Silva, Susana das Neves Pereira, additional, Madureira, Joana, additional, Jaakkola, Jouni J K, additional, Sera, Francesco, additional, Honda, Yasushi, additional, Gasparrini, Antonio, additional, Hashizume, Masahiro, additional, Abrutzky, Rosana, additional, Acquaotta, Fiorella, additional, Alahmad, Barrak, additional, Analitis, Antonis, additional, Carlsen, Hanne Krage, additional, Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel, additional, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline, additional, Colistro, Valentina, additional, Matus Correa, Patricia, additional, Dang, Tran Ngoc, additional, de'Donato, Francesca, additional, Hurtado Diaz, Magali, additional, Dung, Do Van, additional, Entezari, Alireza, additional, Forsberg, Bertil, additional, Goodman, Patrick, additional, Guo, Yue Leon, additional, Guo, Yuming, additional, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, additional, Houthuijs, Danny, additional, Huber, Veronika, additional, Indermitte, Ene, additional, Kan, Haidong, additional, Katsouyanni, Klea, additional, Kim, Yoonhee, additional, Kim, Ho, additional, Lee, Whanhee, additional, Li, Shanshan, additional, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, additional, Michelozzi, Paola, additional, Orru, Hans, additional, Valdés Ortega, Nicolás, additional, Osorio, Samuel, additional, Overcenco, Ala, additional, Pan, Shih-Chun, additional, Pascal, Mathilde, additional, Ragettli, Martina S., additional, Rao, Shilpa, additional, Raz, Raanan, additional, Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento, additional, Schneider, Alexandra, additional, Schwartz, Joel, additional, Scovronick, Noah, additional, Seposo, Xerxes, additional, De la Cruz Valencia, César, additional, Zanobetti, Antonella, additional, and Zeka, Ariana, additional

Published
2024
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36. Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations

Author

Chen, Gongbo, Guo, Yuming, Yue, Xu, Tong, Shilu, Gasparrini, Antonio, Bell, Michelle L, Armstrong, Ben, Schwartz, Joel, Jaakkola, Jouni J K, Zanobetti, Antonella, Lavigne, Eric, Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario, Kan, Haidong, Royé, Dominic, Milojevic, Ai, Overcenco, Ala, Urban, Aleš, Schneider, Alexandra, Entezari, Alireza, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Zeka, Ariana, Tobias, Aurelio, Nunes, Baltazar, Alahmad, Barrak, Forsberg, Bertil, Pan, Shih-Chun, Íñiguez, Carmen, Ameling, Caroline, De la Cruz Valencia, César, Åström, Christofer, Houthuijs, Danny, Van Dung, Do, Samoli, Evangelia, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Sera, Francesco, Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel, Lei, Yadong, Orru, Hans, Kim, Ho, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, Kyselý, Jan, Teixeira, João Paulo, Madureira, Joana, Katsouyanni, Klea, Hurtado-Díaz, Magali, Maasikmets, Marek, Ragettli, Martina S, Hashizume, Masahiro, Stafoggia, Massimo, Pascal, Mathilde, Scortichini, Matteo, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, Micheline, Valdés Ortega, Nicolás, Ryti, Niilo R I, Scovronick, Noah, Matus, Patricia, Goodman, Patrick, Garland, Rebecca M, Abrutzky, Rosana, Garcia, Samuel Osorio, Rao, Shilpa, Fratianni, Simona, Dang, Tran Ngoc, Colistro, Valentina, Huber, Veronika, Lee, Whanhee, Seposo, Xerxes, Honda, Yasushi, Guo, Yue Leon, Ye, Tingting, Yu, Wenhua, Abramson, Michael J, Samet, Jonathan M, and Li, Shanshan

Published
2021
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37. Short term association between ozone and mortality : global two stage time series study in 406 locations in 20 countries

Author

Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M, Sera, Francesco, Liu, Cong, Armstrong, Ben, Milojevic, Ai, Guo, Yuming, Tong, Shilu, Lavigne, Eric, Kyselý, Jan, Urban, Aleš, Orru, Hans, Indermitte, Ene, Pascal, Mathilde, Huber, Veronika, Schneider, Alexandra, Katsouyanni, Klea, Samoli, Evangelia, Stafoggia, Massimo, Scortichini, Matteo, Hashizume, Masahiro, Honda, Yasushi, Ng, Chris Fook Sheng, Hurtado-Diaz, Magali, Cruz, Julio, Silva, Susana, Madureira, Joana, Scovronick, Noah, Garland, Rebecca M., Kim, Ho, Tobias, Aurelio, Íñiguez, Carmen, Forsberg, Bertil, Åström, Christofer, Ragettli, Martina S, Röösli, Martin, Guo, Yue-Liang Leon, Chen, Bing-Yu, Zanobetti, Antonella, Schwartz, Joel, Bell, Michelle L, Kan, Haidong, and Gasparrini1, Antonio

Published
2020

38. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study

Author

Zhao, Qi, Guo, Yuming, Ye, Tingting, Gasparrini, Antonio, Tong, Shilu, Overcenco, Ala, Urban, Aleš, Schneider, Alexandra, Entezari, Alireza, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Zanobetti, Antonella, Analitis, Antonis, Zeka, Ariana, Tobias, Aurelio, Nunes, Baltazar, Alahmad, Barrak, Armstrong, Ben, Forsberg, Bertil, Pan, Shih-Chun, Íñiguez, Carmen, Ameling, Caroline, De la Cruz Valencia, César, Åström, Christofer, Houthuijs, Danny, Dung, Do Van, Royé, Dominic, Indermitte, Ene, Lavigne, Eric, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Acquaotta, Fiorella, de'Donato, Francesca, Di Ruscio, Francesco, Sera, Francesco, Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel, Kan, Haidong, Orru, Hans, Kim, Ho, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, Kyselý, Jan, Madureira, Joana, Schwartz, Joel, Jaakkola, Jouni J K, Katsouyanni, Klea, Hurtado Diaz, Magali, Ragettli, Martina S, Hashizume, Masahiro, Pascal, Mathilde, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline, Valdés Ortega, Nicolás, Ryti, Niilo, Scovronick, Noah, Michelozzi, Paola, Matus Correa, Patricia, Goodman, Patrick, Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario, Abrutzky, Rosana, Osorio, Samuel, Rao, Shilpa, Fratianni, Simona, Dang, Tran Ngoc, Colistro, Valentina, Huber, Veronika, Lee, Whanhee, Seposo, Xerxes, Honda, Yasushi, Guo, Yue Leon, Bell, Michelle L, and Li, Shanshan

Published
2021
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39. Temporal variations in the short-term effects of ambient air pollution on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality: a pooled analysis of 380 urban areas over a 22-year period

Author

Schwarz, Maximilian, Peters, Annette, Stafoggia, Massimo, de'Donato, Francesca, Sera, Francesco, Bell, Michelle L, Guo, Yuming, Honda, Yasushi, Huber, Veronika, Jaakkola, Jouni J K, Urban, Aleš, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Masselot, Pierre, Lavigne, Eric, Achilleos, Souzana, Kyselý, Jan, Samoli, Evangelia, Hashizume, Masahiro, Fook Sheng Ng, Chris, das Neves Pereira da Silva, Susana, Madureira, Joana, Garland, Rebecca M, Tobias, Aurelio, Armstrong, Ben, Schwartz, Joel, Gasparrini, Antonio, Schneider, Alexandra, Breitner, Susanne, Kan, Haidong, Osorio, Samuel, Orru, Hans, Indermitte, Ene, Maasikmets, Marek, Ryti, Niilo, Pascal, Mathilde, Katsouyanni, Klea, Analitis, Antonis, Entezari, Alireza, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Kim, Yoonhee, Alahmad, Barrak, Hurtado Diaz, Magali, Félix Arellano, Eunice Elizabeth, Rao, Shilpa, Diz-Lois Palomares, Alfonso, Scovronick, Noah, Acquaotta, Fiorella, Kim, Ho, Lee, Whanhee, Íñiguez, Carmen, Forsberg, Bertil, Ragettli, Martina S, Guo, Yue Leon, Pan, Shih-Chun, Li, Shanshan, and Zanobetti, Antonella

Abstract

Ambient air pollution, including particulate matter (such as PM10and PM2·5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), has been linked to increases in mortality. Whether populations’ vulnerability to these pollutants has changed over time is unclear, and studies on this topic do not include multicountry analysis. We evaluated whether changes in exposure to air pollutants were associated with changes in mortality effect estimates over time.

Published
2024
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40. All-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and wildfire-related ozone: a multicountry two-stage time series analysis

Author

Chen, Gongbo, Guo, Yuming, Yue, Xu, Xu, Rongbin, Yu, Wenhua, Ye, Tingting, Tong, Shilu, Gasparrini, Antonio, Bell, Michelle L, Armstrong, Ben, Schwartz, Joel, Jaakkola, Jouni J K, Lavigne, Eric, Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Kan, Haidong, Royé, Dominic, Urban, Aleš, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Tobias, Aurelio, Forsberg, Bertil, Sera, Francesco, Lei, Yadong, Abramson, Michael J, Li, Shanshan, Abrutzky, Rosana, Alahmad, Barrak, Ameling, Caroline, Åström, Christofer, Breitner, Susanne, Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel, Coêlho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, Colistro, Valentina, Correa, Patricia Matus, Dang, Tran Ngoc, de'Donato, Francesca, Dung, Do Van, Entezari, Alireza, Garcia, Samuel David Osorio, Garland, Rebecca M., Goodman, Patrick, Guo, Yue Leon, Hashizume, Masahiro, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, Honda, Yasushi, Houthuijs, Danny, Hurtado-Díaz, Magali, Íñiguez, Carmen, Katsouyanni, Klea, Kim, Ho, Kyselý, Jan, Lee, Whanhee, Maasikmets, Marek, Madureira, Joana, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Nunes, Baltazar, Orru, Hans, Ortega, Nicol´s Valdés, Overcenco, Ala, Pan, Shih-Chun, Pascal, Mathilde, Ragettli, Martina S., Rao, Shilpa, Ryti, Niilo R.I., Samoli, Evangelia, Schneider, Alexandra, Scovronick, Noah, Seposo, Xerxes, Stafoggia, Massimo, Valencia, César De la Cruz, Zanobetti, Antonella, and Zeka, Ariana

Abstract

Wildfire activity is an important source of tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution. However, no study to date has systematically examined the associations of wildfire-related O3exposure with mortality globally.

Published
2024
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41. Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study

Author

Lee, Whanhee, Kim, Yoonhee, Sera, Francesco, Gasparrini, Antonio, Park, Rokjin, Michelle Choi, Hayon, Prifti, Kristi, Bell, Michelle L, Abrutzky, Rosana, Guo, Yuming, Tong, Shilu, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline, Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario, Lavigne, Eric, Orru, Hans, Indermitte, Ene, Jaakkola, Jouni J K, Ryti, Niilo R I, Pascal, Mathilde, Goodman, Patrick, Zeka, Ariana, Hashizume, Masahiro, Honda, Yasushi, Hurtado Diaz, Magali, César Cruz, Julio, Overcenco, Ala, Nunes, Baltazar, Madureira, Joana, Scovronick, Noah, Acquaotta, Fiorella, Tobias, Aurelio, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Ragettli, Martina S, Guo, Yue-Liang Leon, Chen, Bing-Yu, Li, Shanshan, Armstrong, Ben, Zanobetti, Antonella, Schwartz, Joel, and Kim, Ho

Published
2020
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42. Perfluoroalkyl Substances, Sex Hormones, and Insulin-like Growth Factor-1 at 6–9 Years of Age: A Cross-Sectional Analysis within the C8 Health Project

Author

Lopez-Espinosa, Maria-Jose, Mondal, Debapriya, Armstrong, Ben G, Eskenazi, Brenda, and Fletcher, Tony

Subjects
Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Clinical Sciences, Pediatric, Alkanesulfonic Acids, Caprylates, Child, Cross-Sectional Studies, Environmental Exposure, Environmental Pollutants, Female, Fluorocarbons, Gonadal Steroid Hormones, Humans, Insulin-Like Growth Factor I, Male, Environmental Sciences, Medical and Health Sciences, Toxicology, Biomedical and clinical sciences, Environmental sciences, Health sciences
Abstract

BackgroundExposure to some perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), such as perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), and perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), may alter levels of sex hormones and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) in animals. Human studies on this topic are scarce, and none have been conducted in young children.ObjectivesWe investigated the relationship between levels of PFAS and estradiol, total testosterone, and IGF-1 in 2,292 children (6-9 years of age) from the C8 Health Project who lived near a chemical plant in the Mid-Ohio Valley (USA) with local contamination from PFOA.MethodsSerum samples were collected in 2005-2006 and analyzed for PFAS, sex hormones, and IGF-1. Results from regression models were expressed as the adjusted percentage difference (95% CI) per sex-specific interquartile range (IQR) increment of each PFAS serum concentration. Analyses by PFAS quartiles were also conducted.ResultsMedian concentrations of PFHxS, PFOA, PFOS, and PFNA were 8, 35, 22, and 1.7 ng/mL in boys and 7, 30, 21, and 1.7 ng/mL in girls. In boys, PFOA concentrations were significantly associated with testosterone levels (-4.9%; 95% CI: -8.7, -0.8%); PFOS with estradiol (-4.0%; 95% CI: -7.7, -0.1%), testosterone (-5.8%; 95% CI: -9.4, -2.0%), and IGF-1 (-5.9%; 95% CI: -8.3, -3.3%); and PFNA with IGF-1 (-3.5%; 95% CI: -6.0, -1.0%). In girls, significant associations were found between PFOS and testosterone (-6.6%; 95% CI: -10.1, -2.8%) and IGF-1 (-5.6%; -8.2, -2.9%); and PFNA and IGF-1 (-3.8%; 95% CI: -6.4, -1.2%). In both sexes, the magnitudes of the associations decreased monotonically across quartiles for both testosterone and IGF-1 in relation to PFOS, and for IGF-1 and PFNA in girls.ConclusionsTo our knowledge, this is the first study suggesting that PFAS are associated with lower levels of IGF-1 and sex hormones in young children.CitationLopez-Espinosa MJ, Mondal D, Armstrong BG, Eskenazi B, Fletcher T. 2016. Perfluoroalkyl substances, sex hormones, and insulin-like growth factor-1 at 6-9 years of age: a cross-sectional analysis within the C8 Health Project. Environ Health Perspect 124:1269-1275; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509869.

Published
2016

43. Structural Basis of the Bivalency of the TRPV1 Agonist DkTx

Author

Ramanujam, Venkatraman, primary, Crawford, Theo, additional, Cristofori-Armstrong, Ben, additional, Deuis, Jennifer, additional, Jia, Xinying, additional, Maxwell, Michael, additional, Jami, Sina, additional, Ma, Linlin, additional, Vetter, Irina, additional, and Mobli, Mehdi, additional

Published
2023
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44. Mortality risks associated with floods in 761 communities worldwide: time series study

Author

Yang, Zhengyu, primary, Huang, Wenzhong, additional, McKenzie, Joanne E, additional, Xu, Rongbin, additional, Yu, Pei, additional, Ye, Tingting, additional, Wen, Bo, additional, Gasparrini, Antonio, additional, Armstrong, Ben, additional, Tong, Shilu, additional, Lavigne, Eric, additional, Madureira, Joana, additional, Kyselý, Jan, additional, Guo, Yuming, additional, and Li, Shanshan, additional

Published
2023
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47. A Smarter Strategy for Using Robots.

Author

Armstrong, Ben and Shah, Julie

Subjects
ROBOTS, AUTOMATION, INDUSTRIAL productivity, WORK measurement, DEBUGGING
Abstract

Despite advances in automation technology, the promise of productive and flexible automation, with minimal involvement of human workers, is far from reality, for two main reasons. First, adoption of automation technology has been limited. Second, when firms do automate, what they gain in productivity they tend to lose in process flexibility, resulting in what the authors call zero-sum automation. This article introduces positive-sum automation, which enables productivity and flexibility. To achieve it, companies must design technology that makes it easier for line employees to train and debug robots; use a bottom-up approach to identifying what tasks should be automated; and choose the right metrics for measuring success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023

50. Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale: A Multicountry Study

Author

Tobías, Aurelio, Hashizume, Masahiro, Honda, Yasushi, Sera, Francesco, Ng, Chris Fook Sheng, Kim, Yoonhee, Roye, Dominic, Chung, Yeonseung, Dang, Tran Ngoc, Kim, Ho, Lee, Whanhee, Íñiguez, Carmen, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana, Abrutzky, Rosana, Guo, Yuming, Tong, Shilu, Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Lavigne, Eric, Correa, Patricia Matus, Ortega, Nicolás Valdés, Kan, Haidong, Osorio, Samuel, Kyselý, Jan, Urban, Aleš, Orru, Hans, Indermitte, Ene, Jaakkola, Jouni J. K., Ryti, Niilo R. I., Pascal, Mathilde, Huber, Veronika, Schneider, Alexandra, Katsouyanni, Klea, Analitis, Antonis, Entezari, Alireza, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Goodman, Patrick, Zeka, Ariana, Michelozzi, Paola, de’Donato, Francesca, Alahmad, Barrak, Diaz, Magali Hurtado, De la Cruz Valencia, César, Overcenco, Ala, Houthuijs, Danny, Ameling, Caroline, Rao, Shilpa, Di Ruscio, Francesco, Carrasco, Gabriel, Seposo, Xerxes, Nunes, Baltazar, Madureira, Joana, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, Scovronick, Noah, Acquaotta, Fiorella, Forsberg, Bertil, Åström, Christofer, Ragettli, Martina S., Guo, Yue-Liang Leon, Chen, Bing-Yu, Li, Shanshan, Colistro, Valentina, Zanobetti, Antonella, Schwartz, Joel, Dung, Do Van, Armstrong, Ben, and Gasparrini, Antonio

Published
2021
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