Search

Episodic events of both Saharan dust outbreaks and African Easterly Waves (AEWs) are observed to move westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The relationship between the warm, dry, and dusty Saharan Air Layer (SAL) on the nearby storms has been the subject of considerable debate. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate the radiative effect of dust on the development of AEWs during August and September, the months of maximum tropical cyclone activity, in years 2003-2007. The simulations show that dust radiative forcing enhances the convective instability of the environment. As a result, most AEWs intensify in the presence of a dust layer. The Lorenz energy cycle analysis reveals that the dust radiative forcing enhances the condensational heating, which elevates the zonal and eddy available potential energy. In turn, available potential energy is effectively converted to eddy kinetic energy, in which local convective overturning plays the primary role. The magnitude of the intensification effect depends on the initial environmental conditions, including moisture, baroclinity, and the depth of the boundary layer. We conclude that dust radiative forcing, albeit small, serves as a catalyst to promote local convection that facilitates AEW development.

Analysis of four years of earth radiation budget, cloud, and sea surface temperature data confirms that cloud parameters change dramatically when and where sea surface temperatures increase above approximately 300K. These results are based upon monthly mean values within 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg grid points over the 'warm pool' region of the western tropical Pacific. The question of whether sea surface temperatures are influenced, in turn, by the radiative effects of these clouds (Ramanathan and Collins) is less clear. Such a feedback, if it exists, is weak. The reason why clouds might have so little influence, despite large changes in their longwave and shortwave radiative effects, might be that the sea surface responds to both the longwave heating and the shortwave cooling effects of clouds, and the two effects nearly cancel. There are strong correlations between the rate of change of sea surface temperature and any of the radiation budget parameters that are highly correlated with the incident solar flux-implying that season and latitude are the critical factors determining sea surface temperatures. With the seasonal or both seasonal and latitudinal variations removed, the rate of change of sea surface temperature shows no correlation with cloud-related parameters in the western tropical Pacific.

The radiative effects of clouds on the climate system are reviewed on the basis of data published over the last 15-20 years and some relevant unpublished model studies. Emphasis is placed on the impact of clouds on the incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere and the two-way interaction of clouds with other variables of the climate system, i.e., the cloud/climate feedback problem, as revealed by climate model simulations. Investigations aimed at determining the overall effects of clouds on the climate system (climate forcing) show that clouds have a net cooling effect. Two estimates of the global annual average effect of clouds on the net flux at the top of the atmosphere, based on recent satellite observations, show wide discrepancies. The sign of cloud feedback is found to be positive when the spatial distribution of clouds is allowed to vary in response to climate change. It is concluded that clouds may have a strong influence on climate change, but the magnitude of this influence is unknown.

Infrared fluxes and cooling rates for several standard model atmospheres, with and without water vapor, carbon dioxide, and ozone, have been calculated using a line-by-line method at 0.01/cm resolution. The sensitivity of the results to the vertical integration scheme and to the model for water vapor continuum absorption is shown. Comparison with similar calculations performed at NOAA/GFDL shows agreement to within 0.5 W/sq m in fluxes at various levels and 0.05 K/d in cooling rates. Comparison with a fast, parameterized radiation code used in climate models reveals a worst case difference, when all gases are included, of 3.7 W/sq m in flux; cooling rate differences are 0.1 K/d or less when integrated over a substantial layer with point differences as large as 0.3 K/d.

The response of the climate system to an external perturbation--e.g., a change in solar irradiance or a change in atmospheric opacity due to an increase in CO2--depends rather strongly on feedback processes in the system, which either amplify or dampen the effects of the initial perturbation. A simple representation of the climate system is used to compare several important feedbacks, based upon general circulation model (GCM) simulations by various investigators. The models are in general agreement with respect to water vapor feedback, but in wide disagreement with respect to cloud feedback. Because of the arguments raised by Lindzen (1990)--that the processes which determine water vapor mixing ratio in the upper atmosphere are quite different from those which operate in the planetary boundary layer, and that upper tropospheric water vapor might actually decrease even when the boundary layer is getting warmer and more moist--researchers undertook a study to determine the sensitivity of climate to changes in water vapor at various levels in the troposphere. The result is that climate is just as sensitive to percentage changes in upper tropospheric water vapor, where the mixing ratio is very small, as it is to percentage changes in the boundary layer, which contains the bulk of total column water vapor.

The conference on The Climate Impact of Solar Variability, was held at Goddard Space Flight Center from April 24 to 27, 1990. In recent years they developed a renewed interest in the potential effects of increasing greenhouse gases on climate. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and the chlorofluorocarbons have been increasing at rates that could significantly change climate. There is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this anthropogenic change. The climate system is very complex, with feedback processes that are not fully understood. Moreover, there are two sources of natural climate variability (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) added to the anthropogenic changes which may confuse our interpretation of the observed temperature record. Thus, if we could understand the climatic impact of the natural variability, it would aid our interpretation and understanding of man-made climate changes.

An Intensive Field Observation (IFO) of cirrus clouds was conducted over the mid-western U.S. during the period October 13 to November 2, 1986. This activity, part of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE), included measurements made from specially deployed instruments on the ground, balloons, and aircraft as well as observations from existing operational and experimental satellites. One of the sets of satellite observations was the radiance measurements made with the 5-channel AVHRR radiometer on the NOAA 9 polar orbiting meteorological satellite. The ground resolution of the measurements at nadir is approx. 1 km. It is these measurements, made once each day at approximately 2:30 p.m. local time, that were used in determining the present cloud atlas. The area covered by the atlas is slightly larger than the area specified for the IFO, in order to be in alignment with the grid that will be used in a forthcoming atlas for the larger, ETO region. The atlas contains four pages of information for each satellite pass. The 1st page of each group shows the distribution of measured radiances in channel 1 (normalized to the incoming solar flux multiplied by the cosine of the solar zenith angle) and in channel 4 for the area as a whole and for each analysis box. The 2nd page shows the images in: channels 1 and 2, channel 3R; and channel 4. The 3rd page shows the retrieved parameters in graphical form for the region as a whole and for each analysis box, where cloud fraction appears as a contour plot with respect to optical thickness and cloudtop temperature. The 4th page provides a statistical summary of the retrieved parameters in numerical form for each analysis box.

The NASA's Earth Radiation Array (ERA), which is currently being developed to provide calibrated radiation measurements from various areas of the earth for at least 11 years, i.e., one solar cycle, contains a mosaic array of detectors which measures the outgoing radiation of the earth in all directions without the need for mechanical scanning. The angular measurements obtained by the ERA over set intervals of time will be integrated to produce total reflected and emitted flux values from each of the target areas. The ERA is designed as a relatively small instrument (less than 1-cu-m volume and 100-kg mass), which can be included in the payload complement of many different satellites. The key requirement of the ERA is the ability to operate for up to 11 years continuously and without failure.

The transient response of the climate to increasing CO2 is studied using a modified version of the multilayer energy balance model of Peng et al. (1982). The main characteristics of the model are described. Latitudinal and seasonal distributions of planetary albedo, latitude-time distributions of zonal mean temperatures, and latitudinal distributions of evaporation, water vapor transport, and snow cover generated from the model and derived from actual observations are analyzed and compared. It is observed that in response to an atmospheric doubling of CO2, the model reaches within 1/e of the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature in 9-35 years for the probable range of vertical heat diffusivity in the ocean. For CO2 increases projected by the National Research Council (1983), the model's transient response in annually and globally averaged surface temperatures is 60-75 percent of the corresponding equilibrium response, and the disequilibrium increases with increasing heat diffusivity of the ocean.