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Abstract Selecting appropriate diagnostic methods that take account of the type of vaccine used is important when implementing a vaccination programme against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). If vaccination is effective, a decreased viral load is expected in the samples used for diagnosis, making molecular methods with high sensitivity the best choice. Although serological methods can be reasonably sensitive, they may produce results that are difficult to interpret. In addition to routine molecular monitoring, it is recommended to conduct viral isolation, genetic sequencing and phenotypic characterisation of any HPAI virus detected in vaccinated flocks to detect escape mutants early. Following emergency vaccination, various surveillance options based on virological testing of dead birds (‘bucket sampling’) at defined intervals were assessed to be effective for early detection of HPAIV and prove disease freedom in vaccinated populations. For ducks, virological or serological testing of live birds was assessed as an effective strategy. This surveillance could be also applied in the peri‐vaccination zone on vaccinated establishments, while maintaining passive surveillance in unvaccinated chicken layers and turkeys, and weekly bucket sampling in unvaccinated ducks. To demonstrate disease freedom with > 99% confidence and to detect HPAI virus sufficiently early following preventive vaccination, monthly virological testing of all dead birds up to 15 per flock, coupled with passive surveillance in both vaccinated and unvaccinated flocks, is recommended. Reducing the sampling intervals increases the sensitivity of early detection up to 100%. To enable the safe movement of vaccinated poultry during emergency vaccination, laboratory examinations in the 72 h prior to the movement can be considered as a risk mitigation measure, in addition to clinical inspection; sampling results from existing surveillance activities carried out in these 72 h could be used. In this Opinion, several schemes are recommended to enable the safe movement of vaccinated poultry following preventive vaccination.

Abstract Background We aimed to estimate the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) seroprevalence and describe its determinants and associated symptoms among unvaccinated healthcare workers (HCWs) after the first wave of the pandemic. Methods HCWs from 13 Dutch hospitals were screened for antibodies against the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 in June-July 2020 and after three months. Participants completed a retrospective questionnaire on determinants for occupational and community exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 experienced since January 2020. The seroprevalence was calculated per baseline characteristic and symptom at baseline and after follow-up. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for seropositivity were determined using logistic regression. Results Among 2328 HCWs, 323 (13.9%) were seropositive at enrolment, 49 of whom (15%) reported no previous symptoms suggestive of COVID-19. During follow-up, only 1% of the tested participants seroconverted. Seroprevalence was higher in younger HCWs compared to the mid-age category (aOR 1.53, 95% CI 1.07–2.18). Nurses (aOR 2.21, 95% CI 1.34–3.64) and administrative staff (aOR 1.87, 95% CI 1.02–3.43) had a higher seroprevalence than physicians. The highest seroprevalence was observed in HCWs in the emergency department (ED) (aOR 1.79, 95% CI 1.10–2.91), the lowest in HCWs in the intensive, high, or medium care units (aOR 0.47, 95% CI 0.31–0.71). Chronic respiratory disease, smoking, and having a dog were independently associated with a lower seroprevalence, while HCWs with diabetes mellitus had a higher seroprevalence. In a multivariable model containing all self-reported symptoms since January 2020, altered smell and taste, fever, general malaise/fatigue, and muscle aches were positively associated with developing antibodies, while sore throat and chills were negatively associated. Conclusions The SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in unvaccinated HCWs of 13 Dutch hospitals was 14% in June-July 2020 and remained stable after three months. A higher seroprevalence was observed in the ED and among nurses, administrative and young staff, and those with diabetes mellitus, while a lower seroprevalence was found in HCWs in intensive, high, or medium care, and those with self-reported lung disease, smokers, and dog owners. A history of altered smell or taste, fever, muscle aches and fatigue were independently associated with the presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in unvaccinated HCWs.

BackgroundColistin serves as the last line of defense against multidrug resistant Gram-negative bacterial infections in both human and veterinary medicine. This study aimed to investigate the occurrence and spread of colistin-resistant Enterobacterales (ColR-E) using a One Health approach in Belgium and in the Netherlands.MethodsIn a transnational research project, a total of 998 hospitalized patients, 1430 long-term care facility (LTCF) residents, 947 children attending day care centres, 1597 pigs and 1691 broilers were sampled for the presence of ColR-E in 2017 and 2018, followed by a second round twelve months later for hospitalized patients and animals. Colistin treatment incidence in livestock farms was used to determine the association between colistin use and resistance. Selective cultures and colistin minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC) were employed to identify ColR-E. A combination of short-read and long-read sequencing was utilized to investigate the molecular characteristics of 562 colistin-resistant isolates. Core genome multi-locus sequence typing (cgMLST) was applied to examine potential transmission events.ResultsThe presence of ColR-E was observed in all One Health sectors. In Dutch hospitalized patients, ColR-E proportions (11.3 and 11.8% in both measurements) were higher than in Belgian patients (4.4 and 7.9% in both measurements), while the occurrence of ColR-E in Belgian LTCF residents (10.2%) and children in day care centres (17.6%) was higher than in their Dutch counterparts (5.6% and 12.8%, respectively). Colistin use in pig farms was associated with the occurrence of colistin resistance. The percentage of pigs carrying ColR-E was 21.8 and 23.3% in Belgium and 14.6% and 8.9% in the Netherlands during both measurements. The proportion of broilers carrying ColR-E in the Netherlands (5.3 and 1.5%) was higher compared to Belgium (1.5 and 0.7%) in both measurements. mcr-harboring E. coli were detected in 17.4% (31/178) of the screened pigs from 7 Belgian pig farms. Concurrently, four human-related Enterobacter spp. isolates harbored mcr-9.1 and mcr-10 genes. The majority of colistin-resistant isolates (419/473, 88.6% E. coli; 126/166, 75.9% Klebsiella spp.; 50/75, 66.7% Enterobacter spp.) were susceptible to the critically important antibiotics (extended-spectrum cephalosporins, fluoroquinolones, carbapenems and aminoglycosides). Chromosomal colistin resistance mutations have been identified in globally prevalent high-risk clonal lineages, including E. coli ST131 (n = 17) and ST1193 (n = 4). Clonally related isolates were detected in different patients, healthy individuals and livestock animals of the same site suggesting local transmission. Clonal clustering of E. coli ST10 and K. pneumoniae ST45 was identified in different sites from both countries suggesting that these clones have the potential to spread colistin resistance through the human population or were acquired by exposure to a common (food) source. In pig farms, the continuous circulation of related isolates was observed over time. Inter-host transmission between humans and livestock animals was not detected.ConclusionsThe findings of this study contribute to a broader understanding of ColR-E prevalence and the possible pathways of transmission, offering insights valuable to both academic research and public health policy development.

Abstract Several vaccines have been developed against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), mostly inactivated whole‐virus vaccines for chickens. In the EU, one vaccine is authorised in chickens but is not fully efficacious to stop transmission, highlighting the need for vaccines tailored to diverse poultry species and production types. Off‐label use of vaccines is possible, but effectiveness varies. Vaccines are usually injectable, a time‐consuming process. Mass‐application vaccines outside hatcheries remain rare. First vaccination varies from in‐ovo to 6 weeks of age. Data about immunity onset and duration in the target species are often unavailable, despite being key for effective planning. Minimising antigenic distance between vaccines and field strains is essential, requiring rapid updates of vaccines to match circulating strains. Generating harmonised vaccine efficacy data showing vaccine ability to reduce transmission is crucial and this ability should be also assessed in field trials. Planning vaccination requires selecting the most adequate vaccine type and vaccination scheme. Emergency protective vaccination is limited to vaccines that are not restricted by species, age or pre‐existing vector‐immunity, while preventive vaccination should prioritise achieving the highest protection, especially for the most susceptible species in high‐risk transmission areas. Model simulations in France, Italy and The Netherlands revealed that (i) duck and turkey farms are more infectious than chickens, (ii) depopulating infected farms only showed limitations in controlling disease spread, while 1‐km ring‐culling performed better than or similar to emergency preventive ring‐vaccination scenarios, although with the highest number of depopulated farms, (iii) preventive vaccination of the most susceptible species in high‐risk transmission areas was the best option to minimise the outbreaks' number and duration, (iv) during outbreaks in such areas, emergency protective vaccination in a 3‐km radius was more effective than 1‐ and 10‐km radius. Vaccine efficacy should be monitored and complement other surveillance and preventive efforts.

In order to assess the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, transmission and reservoir development in swine, we combined results of an experimental and two observational studies. First, intranasal and intratracheal challenge of eight pigs did not result in infection, based on clinical signs and PCR on swab and lung tissue samples. Two serum samples returned a low positive result in virus neutralization, in line with findings in other infection experiments in pigs. Next, a retrospective observational study was performed in the Netherlands in the spring of 2020. Serum samples (N =417) obtained at slaughter from 17 farms located in a region with a high human case incidence in the first wave of the pandemic. Samples were tested with protein micro array, plaque reduction neutralization test and receptor-binding-domain ELISA. None of the serum samples was positive in all three assays, although six samples from one farm returned a low positive result in PRNT (titers 40–80). Therefore we conclude that serological evidence for large scale transmission was not observed. Finally, an outbreak of respiratory disease in pigs on one farm, coinciding with recent exposure to SARS-CoV-2 infected animal caretakers, was investigated. Tonsil swabs and paired serum samples were tested. No evidence for infection with SARS-CoV-2 was found. In conclusion, Although in both the experimental and the observational study few samples returned low antibody titer results in PRNT infection with SARS-CoV-2 was not confirmed. It was concluded that sporadic infections in the field cannot be excluded, but large-scale SARS-CoV-2 transmission among pigs is unlikely.

ABSTRACT The susceptibility of domestic cats to infection with SARS-CoV-2 has been demonstrated by several experimental studies and field observations. We performed an extensive study to further characterize the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 between cats, through both direct and indirect contact. To that end, we estimated the transmission rate parameter and the decay parameter for infectivity in the environment. Using four groups of pair-transmission experiment, all donor (inoculated) cats became infected, shed virus, and seroconverted, while three out of four direct contact cats got infected, shed virus, and two of those seroconverted. One out of eight cats exposed to a SARS-CoV-2-contaminated environment became infected but did not seroconvert. Statistical analysis of the transmission data gives a reproduction number R0 of 2.18 (95% CI = 0.92 to 4.08), a transmission rate parameter β of 0.23 day−1 (95% CI = 0.06 to 0.54), and a virus decay rate parameter μ of 2.73 day−1 (95% CI = 0.77 to 15.82). These data indicate that transmission between cats is efficient and can be sustained (R0 > 1), however, the infectiousness of a contaminated environment decays rapidly (mean duration of infectiousness 1/2.73 days). Despite this, infections of cats via exposure to a SARS-CoV-2-contaminated environment cannot be discounted if cats are exposed shortly after contamination. IMPORTANCE This article provides additional insight into the risk of infection that could arise from cats infected with SARS-CoV-2 by using epidemiological models to determine transmission parameters. Considering that transmission parameters are not always provided in the literature describing transmission experiments in animals, we demonstrate that mathematical analysis of experimental data is crucial to estimate the likelihood of transmission. This article is also relevant to animal health professionals and authorities involved in risk assessments for zoonotic spill-overs of SARS-CoV-2. Last but not least, the mathematical models to calculate transmission parameters are applicable to analyze the experimental transmission of other pathogens between animals.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) can be transmitted from pigs to humans and cause liver inflammation. Pigs are a major reservoir of HEV and most slaughter pigs show evidence of infection by presence of antibodies (ELISA) or viral RNA (PCR). Reducing the number of HEV infected pigs at slaughter would likely reduce human exposure, yet how this can be achieved, is unknown. We aimed to identify and quantify the effect of biosecurity measures to deliver HEV negative batches of pigs to slaughter.A case-control study was performed with Dutch pig farms selected based on results of multiple slaughter batches. Case farms delivered at least one PCR and ELISA negative batch to slaughter (PCR−ELISA−), indicating absence of HEV infection, and control farms had the highest proportion of PCR and/or ELISA positive batches (PCR+ELISA+), indicating high within-farm transmission. Data about biosecurity and housing were collected via a questionnaire and an audit. Variables were selected by regularization (LASSO regression) and ranked, based the frequency of variable selection. The odds ratios (OR) for the relation between case-control status and the highest ranked variables were determined via grouped logistic regression.Thirty-five case farms, with 10 to 60% PCR−ELISA− batches, and 38 control farms with on average 40% PCR+ELISA+ batches, were included. Rubber and steel floor material in fattening pens had the highest ranking and increased the odds of a PCR−ELISA− batch by 5.87 (95%CI 3.03–11.6) and 7.13 (95%CI 3.05–16.9) respectively. Cleaning pig driving boards weekly (OR 1.99 (95%CI 1.07–3.80)), and fly control with predatory flies (OR 4.52 (95%CI 1.59–13.5)) were protective, whereas a long fattening period was a risk. This study shows that cleaning and cleanability of floors and fomites and adequate fly control are measures to consider for HEV control in infected farms. Yet, intervention studies are needed to confirm the robustness of these outcomes.

Abstract Humans can become infected with hepatitis E virus (HEV) by consumption of undercooked pork. To reduce the burden of HEV in humans, mitigation on pig farms is needed. HEV is found on most pig farms globally, yet within-farm seroprevalence estimates vary considerably. Understanding of the underlying variation in infection dynamics within and between farms currently lacks. Therefore, we investigated HEV infection dynamics by sampling 1711 batches of slaughter pigs from 208 Dutch farms over an 8-month period. Four farm types, conventional, organic, and two types with strict focus on biosecurity, were included. Sera were tested individually with an anti-HEV antibody ELISA and pooled per batch with PCR. All farms delivered seropositive pigs to slaughter, yet batches (resembling farm compartments) had varying results. By combining PCR and ELISA results, infection moment and extent per batch could be classified as low transmission, early, intermediate or late. Cluster analysis of batch infection moments per farm resulted in four clusters with distinct infection patterns. Cluster 1 farms delivered almost exclusively PCR negative, ELISA positive batches to slaughter (PCR−ELISA+), indicating relatively early age of HEV infection. Cluster 2 and 3 farms delivered 0.3 and 0.7 of batches with intermediate infection moment (PCR+ELISA+) respectively and only few batches with early infection. Cluster 4 farms delivered low transmission (PCR−ELISA−) and late infection (PCR+ELISA−) batches, demonstrating that those farms can prevent or delay HEV transmission to farm compartments. Farm type partly coincided with cluster assignment, indicating that biosecurity and management are related to age of HEV infection.

Abstract Background The FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) principles were proposed in 2016 to set a path towards reusability of research datasets. In this systematic review, we assessed the FAIRness of datasets associated with peer-reviewed articles in veterinary epidemiology research published since 2017, specifically looking at salmonids and dairy cattle. We considered the differences in practices between molecular epidemiology, the branch of epidemiology using genetic sequences of pathogens and hosts to describe disease patterns, and non-molecular epidemiology. Results A total of 152 articles were included in the assessment. Consistent with previous assessments conducted in other disciplines, our results showed that most datasets used in non-molecular epidemiological studies were not available (i.e., neither findable nor accessible). Data availability was much higher for molecular epidemiology papers, in line with a strong repository base available to scientists in this discipline. The available data objects generally scored favourably for Findable, Accessible and Reusable indicators, but Interoperability was more problematic. Conclusions None of the datasets assessed in this study met all the requirements set by the FAIR principles. Interoperability, in particular, requires specific skills in data management which may not yet be broadly available in the epidemiology community. In the discussion, we present recommendations on how veterinary research could move towards greater reusability according to FAIR principles. Overall, although many initiatives to improve data access have been started in the research community, their impact on the availability of datasets underlying published articles remains unclear to date.

Abstract Background Worldwide, Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) is among the diseases that cause the highest economic impact in modern pig production. PRRS was first detected in Costa Rica in 1996 and has since then severely affected the local swine industry. Studies of the molecular characterization of circulating strains, correlation with clinical records, and associations with pathogens associated with Porcine Respiratory Disease Complex (PRDC) have not been done in Costa Rica. Results Sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of ORF5 proved that PRRSV-2 was the only species detected in all locations analyzed. These sequences were grouped into three clusters. When comparing samples from San Jose, Alejuela, and Puntarenas to historical isolates of the previously described lineages (1 to 9), it has been shown that these were closely related to each other and belonged to Lineage 5, along with the samples from Heredia. Intriguingly, samples from Cartago clustered in a separate clade, phylogenetically related to Lineage 1. Epitope analysis conducted on the GP5 sequence of field isolates from Costa Rica revealed seven peptides with at least 80% amino acid sequence identity with previously described and experimentally validated immunogenic regions. Previously described epitopes A, B, and C, were detected in the Santa Barbara-Heredia isolate. Conclusions Our data suggest that the virus has three distinct origins or introductions to the country. Future studies will elucidate how recently introduced vaccines will shape the evolutionary change of circulating field strains.

Abstract EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission to assess the risks related to a possible reduction of the waiting period after rabies antibody titration test to 30 days compared with 90 days of the current EU legislation, for dogs moving from certain non‐EU countries to the EU. This Scientific Report assessed the probability of introduction of rabies into the EU through commercial and non‐commercial movements of vaccinated dogs with a positive titration test (≥ 0.5 IU/mL) if the waiting period decreases from 90 to 30 days. Assuming that all the legal requirements are complied with, the risk of transmission of rabies through the movement of a vaccinated dog is related to the risk of introducing an animal incubating rabies that was infected before the day of vaccination or shortly after vaccination but before the development of immunity (21 days post‐vaccination). Using published data on the incubation period for experimental and field cases in dogs and considering the rabies incidence data in certain countries, the aggregated probability for the annual introduction of rabies through dogs was assessed. Considering the uncertainty related to the duration of the incubation period, the number of imported dogs, and the disease incidence in some countries it was concluded with a 95% certainty that the maximum number of rabies‐infected imported dogs complying with the regulations in a 20‐year period could increase from 5 to 20 when decreasing the waiting period from 90 to 30 days. Nevertheless, the potential impact of even a small increase in probability means the risk is increased for a region like the EU where rabies has long been a focus for eradication, to protect human and animal health.

Due to the zoonotic origin of SARS-Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the potential for its transmission from humans back to animals and the possibility that it might establish ongoing infection pathways in other animal species has been discussed. Cats are highly susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 and were shown experimentally to transmit the virus to other cats. Infection of cats has been widely reported. Domestic cats in COVID-19-positive households could therefore be a part of a human to animal to human transmission pathway. Here, we report the results of a qualitative risk assessment focusing on the potential of cat to human transmission in such settings. The assessment was based on evidence available by October 2021.After the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 to a household by a human, cats may become infected and infected cats may pose an additional infection risk for other members of the household. In order to assess this additional risk qualitatively, expert opinion was elicited within the framework of a modified Delphi procedure. The conclusion was that the additional risk of infection of an additional person in a household associated with keeping a domestic cat is very low to negligible, depending on the intensity of cat-to-human interactions. The separation of cats from humans suffering from SARS-CoV-2 infection should contribute to preventing further transmission.

Broilers are an important reservoir of extended spectrum beta-lactamase and AmpC beta-lactamase (ESBL/pAmpC)-producing bacteria. In previous studies, a single supply of a competitive exclusion (CE) product before challenge with a high dose of ESBL/pAmpC-producing Escherichia coli led to reduced colonization, excretion, and transmission, but could not prevent colonization. The hypothesized mechanism is competition; therefore, in this study the effect of a prolonged supply of CE products on colonization, excretion, and transmission of ESBL-producing E. coli after challenge with a low dose at day 0 or day 5 was investigated. Day-old broilers (Ross 308) (n = 220) were housed in isolators. Two CE products, containing unselected fermented intestinal bacteria (CEP) or a selection of pre- and probiotics (SYN), were supplied in drinking water from day 0 to 14. At day 0 or 5, broilers were challenged with 0.5 mL with 101 or 102 cfu/mL E. coli encoding the beta-lactamase gene blaCTX-M-1 on an IncI plasmid (CTX-M-1-E. coli). Presence and concentration of CTX-M-1-E. coli were determined using cloacal swabs (days 0–14, 16, 19, and 21) and cecal content (day 21). Cox proportional hazard model and a mixed linear regression model were used to determine the effect of the intervention on colonization and excretion (log10 cfu/g). When challenged on the day of hatch, no effect of CEP was observed. When challenged at day 5, both CEP and SYN led to a prevention of colonization with CTX-M-1-E. coli in some isolators. In the remaining isolators, we observed reduced time until colonization (hazard ratio between 3.71 × 10−3 and 3.11), excretion (up to −1.60 log10 cfu/g), and cecal content (up to −2.80 log10 cfu/g), and a 1.5 to 3-fold reduction in transmission rate. Colonization after a low-dose challenge with ESBL-producing E. coli can be prevented by CE products. However, if at least 1 bird is colonized it spreads through the whole flock. Prolonged supply of CE products, provided shortly after hatch, may be applicable as an intervention to reduce the prevalence of ESBL/pAmpC-producing bacteria in the broiler production chain.

Abstract Background Conjugation plays a major role in the transmission of plasmids encoding antibiotic resistance genes in both clinical and general settings. The conjugation efficiency is influenced by many biotic and abiotic factors, one of which is the taxonomic relatedness between donor and recipient bacteria. A comprehensive overview of the influence of donor-recipient relatedness on conjugation is still lacking, but such an overview is important to quantitatively assess the risk of plasmid transfer and the effect of interventions which limit the spread of antibiotic resistance, and to obtain parameter values for conjugation in mathematical models. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis on reported conjugation frequencies from Escherichia coli donors to various recipient species. Results Thirty-two studies reporting 313 conjugation frequencies for liquid broth matings and 270 conjugation frequencies for filter matings were included in our meta-analysis. The reported conjugation frequencies varied over 11 orders of magnitude. Decreasing taxonomic relatedness between donor and recipient bacteria, when adjusted for confounding factors, was associated with a lower conjugation frequency in liquid matings. The mean conjugation frequency for bacteria of the same order, the same class, and other classes was 10, 20, and 789 times lower than the mean conjugation frequency within the same species, respectively. This association between relatedness and conjugation frequency was not found for filter matings. The conjugation frequency was furthermore found to be influenced by temperature in both types of mating experiments, and in addition by plasmid incompatibility group in liquid matings, and by recipient origin and mating time in filter matings. Conclusions In our meta-analysis, taxonomic relatedness is limiting conjugation in liquid matings, but not in filter matings, suggesting that taxonomic relatedness is not a limiting factor for conjugation in environments where bacteria are fixed in space.

Pigs are a reservoir of hepatitis E virus (HEV), which causes hepatitis in humans. To study the epidemiology of HEV in pig farms, sampling methods are currently used that cause discomfort to pigs, such as rectal sampling. In line with the 3Rs principle, we aimed to evaluate non-invasive methods to detect pens with HEV-shedding pigs. Twenty-eight pens of one farm were sampled cross-sectionally. Individual rectal swabs (IRS) were collected to determine prevalence within pens. Four pen-level samples were compared: a pool of IRS per pen (P), boot socks (BS), oral fluid (OF) and pooled faecal droppings (FD). Each sample was tested by RT-PCR and the sensitivity and specificity of each method was determined by Bayesian latent class analysis. According to IRS, 19/28 pens were HEV positive. BS had a sensitivity of 95% and detected HEV in pens with 10% of pigs shedding; however, specificity was below 30%. FD were comparably accurate to P, with a sensitivity and specificity of 94% and 86%, respectively. BS sampling is thus advised to detect early shedding of HEV or pen contamination, and FD to determine the duration of shedding. This study demonstrates that non-invasive sampling can replace rectal swabs in research on HEV in pigs.

Common aims of animal health surveillance systems are the timely detection of emerging diseases and health status monitoring. This study aimed to evaluate the coverage and representativeness of passive surveillance components for cattle and swine in the Netherlands from 2015–2019. The passive surveillance components consisted of a telephone helpdesk for veterinary advice and diagnostic and postmortem facilities. Spatial analysis showed heterogeneity (range in RR = 0.26–5.37) of participation across the Netherlands. Generalized linear mixed models showed that distance to the diagnostic facility and farm density were associated with the number of contacts of farmers with the helpdesk and postmortem examination. The contact rate of veterinary practices was associated with their number of clients, ranging in RR from 0.39 to 1.59. We concluded that the evaluation indicated differences in coverage of the passive surveillance components across regions, farms and veterinary practices. Due to the absence of emerging infections in the study period, we were unable to estimate the consequences of the observed differences for the early detection of disease. Nevertheless, regions and veterinary practices with low participation in passive surveillance might be a risk for early detection, and consequently, further understanding of the motivation to participate in passive surveillance components is needed.

Abstract American mink and ferret are highly susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2), but no information is available for other mustelid species. SARS‐CoV‐2 spreads very efficiently within mink farms once introduced, by direct and indirect contact, high within‐farm animal density increases the chance for transmission. Between‐farm spread is likely to occur once SARS‐CoV‐2 is introduced, short distance between SARS‐CoV‐2 positive farms is a risk factor. As of 29 January 2021, SARS‐CoV‐2 virus has been reported in 400 mink farms in eight countries in the European Union. In most cases, the likely introduction of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection into farms was infected humans. Human health can be at risk by mink‐related variant viruses, which can establish circulation in the community, but so far these have not shown to be more transmissible or causing more severe impact compared with other circulating SARS‐CoV‐2. Concerning animal health risk posed by SARS‐CoV‐2 infection the animal species that may be included in monitoring plans are American mink, ferrets, cats, raccoon dogs, white‐tailed deer and Rhinolophidae bats. All mink farms should be considered at risk of infection; therefore, the monitoring objective should be early detection. This includes passive monitoring (in place in the whole territory of all countries where animals susceptible to SARS‐CoV‐2 are bred) but also active monitoring by regular testing. First, frequent testing of farm personnel and all people in contact with the animals is recommended. Furthermore randomly selected animals (dead or sick animals should be included) should be tested using reverse transcriptase‐polymerase chain reaction (RT‐PCR), ideally at weekly intervals (i.e. design prevalence approximately 5% in each epidemiological unit, to be assessed case by case). Suspected animals (dead or with clinical signs and a minimum five animals) should be tested for confirmation of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. Positive samples from each farm should be sequenced to monitor virus evolution and results publicly shared.

Extended spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria are resistant to extended-spectrum cephalosporins and are common in broilers. Interventions are needed to reduce the prevalence of ESBL-producing bacteria in the broiler production pyramid. This study investigated two different interventions. The effect of a prolonged supply of competitive exclusion (CE) product and compartmentalization on colonization and transmission, after challenge with a low dose of ESBL-producing Escherichia coli, in broilers kept under semi-field conditions, were examined. One-day-old broilers (Ross 308) (n = 400) were housed in four experimental rooms, subdivided in one seeder (S/C1)-pen and eight contact (C2)-pens. In two rooms, CE product was supplied from day 0 to 7. At day 5, seeder-broilers were inoculated with E. coli strain carrying blaCTX–M–1 on plasmid IncI1 (CTX-M-1-E. coli). Presence of CTX-M-1-E. coli was determined using cloacal swabs (day 5–21 daily) and cecal samples (day 21). Time until colonization and cecal excretion (log10 CFU/g) were analyzed using survival analysis and linear regression. Transmission coefficients within and between pens were estimated using maximum likelihood. The microbiota composition was assessed by 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicon sequencing in cecal content of broilers on days 5 and 21. None of the CE broilers was CTX-M-1-E. coli positive. In contrast, in the untreated rooms 187/200 of the broilers were CTX-M-1-E. coli positive at day 21. Broilers in C2-pens were colonized later than seeder-broilers (Time to event Ratio 3.53, 95% CI 3.14 to 3.93). The transmission coefficient between pens was lower than within pens (3.28 × 10–4 day–2, 95% CI 2.41 × 10–4 to 4.32 × 10–4 vs. 6.12 × 10–2 day–2, 95% CI 4.78 × 10–2 to 7.64 × 10–2). The alpha diversity of the cecal microbiota content was higher in CE broilers than in control broilers at days 5 and 21. The supply of a CE product from day 0 to 7 prevented colonization of CTX-M-1-E. coli after challenge at day 5, likely as a result of CE induced effects on the microbiota composition. Furthermore, compartmentalization reduced transmission rate between broilers. Therefore, a combination of compartmentalization and supply of a CE product may be a useful intervention to reduce transmission and prevent colonization of ESBL/pAmpC-producing bacteria in the broiler production pyramid.

Abstract In 2019, no lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were reported in South‐Eastern Europe, the mass vaccination regional campaign with homologous LSD vaccine continued for the fourth year with over 1.8 million bovines vaccinated in the region, preventing further outbreaks since 2016. LSD outbreaks were reported in Turkey, including western Turkey, in Russia and in eastern Asia affecting China, Bangladesh and India for the first time. The use of homologous vaccine should be considered in the countries still affected in order to eliminate the virus. Besides passive surveillance, which is implemented in all the countries, active surveillance for early detection based on clinical examination could be conducted ideally during April–October every 5 weeks in at‐risk areas, based on possible re‐emergence or re‐introduction from affected neighbouring countries. Active surveillance for proving disease freedom could be based on serological testing (enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)) targeting 3.5% seroprevalence and conducted on a random sample of cattle herds on non‐vaccinated animals. LSD re‐emerged in Israel in 2019, after vaccination became voluntary. This shows that, if the virus is still circulating in the region, the reduced protection might result in re‐emergence of LSD. In case of re‐emergence, a contingency plan and vaccine stockpiling would be needed, in order to react quickly. From a study performed in Israel to test side effects of live‐attenuated homologous LSD vaccine, milk production can be reduced during 7 days after vaccination (around 6–8 kg per cow), without a significant loss in the 30 days after vaccination. Research needs should be focused on the probability of transmission from insect to bovine, the virus inactivation rate in insects, the collection of baseline entomological data, the capacity of vector species in LSDV transmission linked to studies on their abundance and the control of Stomoxys calcitrans being the most important vector in LSD transmission.

Abstract Avian influenza (AI) is a viral infectious disease that affects all species of domestic and wild birds. The viruses causing this disease can be of high (HPAI) or low (LPAI) pathogenicity and represent a continuous threat to poultry in Europe. Council Directive 2005/94/EC requests EU Member States (MSs) to carry out surveillance in poultry and wild birds and notify the results to the responsible authority. Therefore, MSs and Switzerland have implemented surveillance programmes to yearly monitor incursions of AI viruses in poultry and wild birds. EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission, to collate, validate, analyse and summarise in an annual report the data resulting from the avian influenza surveillance programmes. This is the first report produced under this mandate summarising the results of the surveillance activities carried out in poultry and wild birds in 2018. Overall 18,596 poultry establishments were sampled, of which 43 were seropositive for H5 AI and two for H7 AI. Seropositive establishments were found in 11 MSs, with the highest percentage of seropositive establishments being found in waterfowl gamebird, and geese and duck breeding establishments. A total of 9,145 dead/moribund wild birds were sampled, with 163 birds testing positive to HPAI virus H5N6. The infected birds were reported by eight MSs and were mostly found between January and April 2018. In this report, the wild bird species affected with HPAI are described and the strategy of targeted sampling is assessed. The crude odds ratio of HPAI detection as a function of the target species (species belonging to the list of target species versus species not belonging to the target list) is presented. The surveillance findings for poultry and wild birds for 2018 are also discussed in relation to findings from previous years and current knowledge on the epidemiology of AI in Europe.

Background. The use of antibiotics in food production selects for resistant bacteria and may cause a threat to human and animal health. Belgium and the Netherlands have one of the highest densities of broilers and pigs in Europe, making active monitoring of antibiotic use and resistance in this region vital. Objectives. This study aimed to quantify ESBL-producing (ESBL-E. coli), carbapenem- and ciprofloxacin-resistant (CiproR) Escherichia coli in animal feces on broiler and pig farms with a history of high antibiotic use in Belgium and the Netherlands. Methods. A total of 779 broiler and 817 pig fecal samples, collected from 29 conventional broiler and 31 multiplier pig farms in the cross-border region of Belgium and the Netherlands, were screened for the presence of antibiotic-resistant E. coli using selective culturing. Results. Carbapenem-resistant E. coli were not detected. ESBL-E. coli were remarkably more prevalent in samples from Belgian than Dutch farms. However, CiproR-E. coli were highly prevalent in broilers of both countries. The percentage of samples with ESBL- and CiproR-E. coli was lower in pig compared to poultry farms and varied between farms. No clear association with the on-farm antibiotic use in the year preceding sampling was observed. Multidrug resistance was frequently observed in samples from both countries, but ESBL-production in combination with ciprofloxacin resistance was higher in samples from Belgium. Conclusions. This study demonstrated marked differences in antibiotic resistance between countries, farms and within farms. The observed variation cannot be explained straightforward by prior quantity of antibiotic use suggesting that it results from more complex interactions that warrant further investigation.

Abstract In 2018, no lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were reported in the Balkan region, after the decline reported in 2017 (385) compared to 2016 (7,483). This confirms the effectiveness of the vaccination campaign based on the LSD homologous vaccine strain which continued throughout 2018 with over 2.5 million animals vaccinated, keeping the mean vaccination coverage above 70%. In 2018, LSD outbreaks were reported in Russia, Turkey and Georgia. In Russia, the LSD epidemics expanded northward and eastward, while in Turkey, the most affected region was in the east. LSD is spreading in Turkey since 2013, despite large vaccination campaigns with heterologous vaccine performed since 2014. This might support the hypothesis that the use of heterologous vaccines results in insufficient protection, and therefore, the use of homologous LSD vaccine in Turkey should be considered to prevent further spread. As the LSD epidemic in Turkey is a risk for reintroduction into the EU, it is recommended to continue the vaccination campaigns in 2019 in the high‐risk areas of Balkan region. Spread rates of LSD within a village were estimated from outbreak data for Albania, which can be used to inform the level of vaccination required to control an outbreak in a village. In terms of vaccine safety, the reports from the field suggest that, compared to the large number of animals vaccinated in the Balkan region since 2015, a very limited number of side effects have been recorded so far, although from published literature, local or even systemic side effects in some animals may occur after vaccination. However, due to inadequate study design in the reviewed studies, there is no consensus on the magnitude of such effects and on their real consequences on production.

A reduction in antimicrobial use (AMU) is needed to curb the increase in antimicrobial resistance in broiler production. Improvements in biosecurity can contribute to a lower incidence of disease and thereby lower the need for AMU. However, veterinary advice related to AMU reduction or biosecurity is often not complied with, and this has been linked to the attitudes of farmers. Behavior change promoted by coaching may facilitate uptake and compliance regarding veterinary advice. Thirty broiler farms in Belgium and the Netherlands with high AMU were included in this study for 13 months. For each farmer, the attitude towards AMU reduction was quantified using an adjusted Awareness, Desire, Knowledge, Ability, and Reinforcement (ADKAR®) change management model, and farm biosecurity was assessed with the Biocheck.UGent™ tool. Subsequently, farmers were coached to improve disease prevention and antimicrobial stewardship. After the individual coaching of farmers, there was a change in their attitudes regarding AMU, reflected by an increase in ADKAR® scores. Biosecurity levels improved by around 6% on average, and AMU was reduced by 7% on average without negative effects on performance parameters. Despite these improvements, no significant association could be found between higher ADKAR® scores and lower AMU. Further investigation into sociological models is needed as a tool to reduce AMU in livestock production.

Distinguishing epidemiologically related and unrelated plasmids is essential to confirm plasmid transmission. We compared IncI1–pST12 plasmids from both human and livestock origin and explored the degree of sequence similarity between plasmids from Enterobacteriaceae with different epidemiological links. Short-read sequence data of Enterobacteriaceae cultured from humans and broilers were screened for the presence of both a blaCMY-2 gene and an IncI1–pST12 replicon. Isolates were long-read sequenced on a MinION sequencer (OxfordNanopore Technologies). After plasmid reconstruction using hybrid assembly, pairwise single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were determined. The plasmids were annotated, and a pan-genome was constructed to compare genes variably present between the different plasmids. Nine Escherichia coli sequences of broiler origin, four Escherichia coli sequences, and one Salmonella enterica sequence of human origin were selected for the current analysis. A circular contig with the IncI1–pST12 replicon and blaCMY-2 gene was extracted from the assembly graph of all fourteen isolates. Analysis of the IncI1–pST12 plasmids revealed a low number of SNP differences (range of 0–9 SNPs). The range of SNP differences overlapped in isolates with different epidemiological links. One-hundred and twelve from a total of 113 genes of the pan-genome were present in all plasmid constructs. Next generation sequencing analysis of blaCMY-2-containing IncI1–pST12 plasmids isolated from Enterobacteriaceae with different epidemiological links show a high degree of sequence similarity in terms of SNP differences and the number of shared genes. Therefore, statements on the horizontal transfer of these plasmids based on genetic identity should be made with caution.

Abstract Avian influenza viruses infect domestic poultry and wild birds as well as humans. In poultry, depending on whether these viruses are of high pathogenicity (HPAI) or low pathogenicity (LPAI), the infection can cause different clinical signs, with HPAI causing high mortality in poultry flocks. In order to ensure early detection of avian influenza viruses, surveillance in poultry and wild birds is considered essential. In 2010, the European Commission provided some guidelines to Member States (MSs) on how this surveillance should be carried out, both in poultry and wild birds. EFSA received a mandate from the Commission to collate, validate, analyse, and summarise in an annual report the data resulting from the ongoing avian influenza surveillance programmes established in the different MSs. To deliver on this mandate, EFSA, in collaboration with the Standing Working Group on AI, initiated its activities with the drafting of a scientific report where the future vision of this collection framework was presented. Initial and later drafts of this report were shared with MS representatives in order to get feedback on the practicalities concerning the collection and submission of avian influenza surveillance data to EFSA. In the present report, the data that MSs are legally requested to submit to EFSA (‘mandatory’) and also the data that would be important to collect in order to optimise the outputs (‘desirable’) are described. A number of actions that would lead to the optimal data collection are also presented and the added value to MSs is discussed. A step‐by‐step implementation of the outlined actions is anticipated, with a description of the initial collection framework for 2019 being included in this report.

Abstract The duration of the vaccination campaign sufficient to eliminate lumpy skin disease (LSD) mainly depends on the vaccination effectiveness and coverage achieved. By using a spread epidemiological model, assuming a vaccination effectiveness of 65%, with 50% and 90% coverage, 4 and 3 years campaigns, respectively, are needed to eliminate LSD. When vaccination effectiveness is 80% to 95%, 2 years of vaccination at coverage of 90% is sufficient to eliminate LSD virus (LSDV). For shorter campaigns, LSD is predicted to persist. When the infection is eliminated by vaccination, two pathways for disease recurrence are possible, (i) by new introduction from a neighbouring affected area, especially by introduction of infected animals, or, less likely (ii) the infection persisting either in the environment, in vectors or in wild animals. For planning surveillance, several elements should be considered: the objectives and related design prevalence, the epidemiological situation, the immunological status of the host population, the geographical area and the season, the type of surveillance (active or passive), the diagnostic methods including clinical detection (considered the most effective method for early detection of LSD), the target population, the sample size and frequency. According to the model, for early detecting new introductions of LSD, it may be needed to clinically check a large number of herds (e.g. 2–3,000 herds) monthly. Lower sample sizes can be considered, when a greater delay in detecting the virus is acceptable. Where vaccination is maintained, active surveillance for verifying the effectiveness of vaccination would be needed. Demonstrating disease absence can rely on serological surveillance, which should consider the test sensitivity, the design prevalence (estimated value: 3.5%), the onset and duration of serum antibodies. Important knowledge gaps on LSD are about within‐herd transmission, duration of protective immunity, role of vectors, diagnostic tests, farm location and type in the at‐risk countries and the epidemiological status of neighbouring countries.

HPAI H5N1 is considered endemic in Indonesian poultry and poses a major challenge to animal and human health authorities. The complex structure of the Indonesian poultry meat value chain is an important reason for the limited efficacy of HPAI control in Indonesia so far. The paper objective is to describe how to implement a push-and-pull strategy in the poultry supply chain to control HPAI infection in Western Java. More specifically, this study investigates the poultry value chain in Western Java in relation to consumers’ behavior and governance of the value chain. Implementation of biosecurity and HPAI control measures was strongly related to the governance structure of the chain, with interactions that accentuating the risk of HPAI. In conclusion, a push strategy, as an incentive mechanism, should be designed in such a way that it pays attention to the interactions between actors in a value chain and their impact on introduction and transmission of disease. Moreover, a pull strategy as an incentive mechanism for consumers forcing producers to improve their production environment into higher levels of biosecurity is expected to be less effective than a push strategy targeting producers. Keywords: avian influenza, biosecurity, consumer preferences, willingness to pay, a push and pull strategy

Brucellosis is a worldwide zoonosis with significant impact on rural livelihoods and a potentially underestimated contributor to febrile illnesses. The aim of this study was to estimate the seroprevalence of brucellosis in humans and small ruminants in The Gambia.The study was carried out in rural and urban areas. In 12 rural villages in Kiang West district, sera were collected from humans (n = 599) and small ruminants (n = 623) from the same compounds. From lactating small ruminants, milk samples and vaginal swabs were obtained. At the urban study sites, sera were collected from small ruminants (n = 500) from slaughterhouses and livestock markets. Information on possible risk factors for seropositivity was collected through questionnaires. Sera were screened for antibodies against Brucella spp. with the Rose Bengal Test, ELISA and Micro Agglutination Test (human sera only). PCR was performed on 10 percent of the milk samples and vaginal swabs from small ruminants.One human and 14 sheep sera were positive by the Rose Bengal Test. The rest were negative in all serological tests used. The PCR results were all negative.The results suggest that brucellosis is currently not a generalized problem in humans or small ruminants in The Gambia.

We analyzed the effectiveness of personal protective equipment and oseltamivir use during the 2003 avian influenza A (H7N7) epidemic in the Netherlands by linking databases containing information about farm visits, human infections, and use of oseltamivir and personal protective equipment. Using a stringent case definition, based on self-reported conjunctivitis combined with a positive hemagglutination-inhibition assay, we found that prophylactic treatment with oseltamivir significantly reduced the risk for infection per farm visit from 0.145 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.078–0.233) to 0.031 (95% CI 0.008–0.073). The protective effect was ≈79% (95% CI 40%–97%). These results are comparable with the reported effect of prophylactic treatment with oseltamivir on human seasonal influenza. No significant protective effect was found for use of respirators or safety glasses, possibly because of limitations of the data.

In January 2004, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus of the H5N1 subtype was first confirmed in poultry and humans in Thailand. Control measures, e.g., culling poultry flocks, restricting poultry movement, and improving hygiene, were implemented. Poultry populations in 1,417 villages in 60 of 76 provinces were affected in 2004. A total of 83% of infected flocks confirmed by laboratories were backyard chickens (56%) or ducks (27%). Outbreaks were concentrated in the Central, the southern part of the Northern, and Eastern Regions of Thailand, which are wetlands, water reservoirs, and dense poultry areas. More than 62 million birds were either killed by HPAI viruses or culled. H5N1 virus from poultry caused 17 human cases and 12 deaths in Thailand; a number of domestic cats, captive tigers, and leopards also died of the H5N1 virus. In 2005, the epidemic is ongoing in Thailand.

The distribution of Streptococcus suis serotypes isolated from clinically infected pigs differs between geographical areas, and varies over time. In several European countries, predomination of serotype 2 has changed to serotype 9. We hypothesize a relation, with one serotype affecting the other in colonization and invasion. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether simultaneous exposure of pigs to serotypes 2 and 9 affects colonization and transmission of each type, and mortality. Thirty-six caesarean-derived/colostrum-deprived piglets were randomly assigned to three groups, and there housed pair-wise. At six weeks old, one pig per pair was inoculated with either one (serotype 2 or 9; mono-group) or two serotypes simultaneously (dual-group); the other pig was contact-exposed. Tonsillar and nasal samples were collected within three weeks post inoculation. Bacterial loads in samples were quantified using multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Transmission rates of the serotypes among pigs were estimated using a mathematical Susceptible-Infectious (SI) model. Bacterial loads and transmission rates did not differ significantly between serotypes. Compared to the mono-group, in the dual-group the average serotype 2 load in tonsillar samples from contact pigs was reduced on days 1 to 4 and on day 6. Simultaneous exposure to the serotypes reduced the mortality hazard 6.3 times (95% C.I.: 2.0–19.8) compared to exposure to serotype 2 only, and increased it 6.6 times (95% C.I.: 1.4–30.9) compared to exposure to serotype 9 only. This study indicates that serotype 2 load and mortality were affected in pigs exposed to these two serotypes.

BACKGROUND: Q fever is a zoonosis caused by Coxiella burnetii, a Gram negative bacterium present worldwide. Small ruminants are considered the main reservoirs for infection of humans. This study aimed to estimate the extent of C. burnetii infection among sheep and goats in part of The Gambia. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This survey was carried out from March to May 2012 at two areas in The Gambia. The first area comprised a cluster of seven rural villages situated 5-15 km west of Farafenni as well as the local abattoir. A second sampling was done at the central abattoir in Abuko (30 km from the capital, Banjul) in the Western Region. Serum samples were obtained from 490 goats and 398 sheep. In addition, 67 milk samples were obtained from lactating dams. Sera were tested with a Q fever ELISA kit. C. burnetii DNA was extracted from milk samples and then detected using a specific quantitative multiplex PCR assay, targeting the IS1111a element. A multivariable mixed logistic regression model was used to examine the relationship between seropositivity and explanatory variables. An overall seroprevalence of 21.6% was found. Goats had a significantly higher seroprevalence than sheep, respectively 24.2% and 18.5%. Seropositive animals were significantly older than seronegative animals. Animals from the villages had a significantly lower seroprevalence than animals from the central abattoir (15.1% versus 29.1%). C. burnetii DNA was detected in 2 out of 67 milk samples, whereas 8 samples gave a doubtful result. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: A substantial C. burnetii seroprevalence in sheep and goats in The Gambia was demonstrated. People living in close proximity to small ruminants are exposed to C. burnetii. Q fever should be considered as a possible cause of acute febrile illness in humans in The Gambia. Future studies should include a simultaneous assessment of veterinary and human serology, and include aetiology of febrile illness in local clinics.

The spread of an infectious agent in a population can be reduced by interfering in the infectiousness or susceptibility of individuals, and/or in their contact structure. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of prevention of direct contact between infectious and susceptible pigs on the transmission of Streptococcus suis (S. suis). In three replicate experiments, S. suis-free pigs were housed in boxes either in pairs (25 pairs) or alone (15 pigs). The distance between the boxes was ±1 m. At 7 weeks of age, one pig of each pair was inoculated intranasally with S. suis serotype 9; the other pigs were exposed to S. suis by either direct (pairs) or indirect contact (individually housed pigs). Tonsillar brush and saliva swab samples from all pigs were collected regularly for 4 weeks post inoculation to monitor colonization with S. suis. All inoculated pigs became infected, and their pen mates became colonized within 2 days. Thirteen indirectly exposed pigs became positive within 7-25 days after exposure. The rate of direct transmission βdir was estimated to be 3.58 per pig per day (95% CI: 2.29-5.60). The rate of indirect transmission increased in time, depending on the cumulative number of days pigs tested positive for the presence of S. suis. The estimate β'ind was 0.001 (95% CI: 0.0006-0.0017) new infections per pig per day for each day that an infected pig was tested positive for S. suis. We conclude that prevention of direct contact reduces the rate at which susceptible pigs become colonized. Simulation studies using these parameters showed, however, that such intervention measure would not limit S. suis serotype 9 spread in a commercial pig farm to a relevant extent, implying that spatial separation of groups op pigs within a compartment would not be effective on a farm.

In recent years, the early detection of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in poultry has become increasingly important, given their potential to mutate into highly pathogenic viruses. However, evaluations of LPAI surveillance have mainly focused on prevalence and not on the ability to act as an early warning system. We used a simulation model based on data from Italian LPAI epidemics in turkeys to evaluate different surveillance strategies in terms of their performance as early warning systems. The strategies differed in terms of sample size, sampling frequency, diagnostic tests, and whether or not active surveillance (i.e., routine laboratory testing of farms) was performed, and were also tested under different epidemiological scenarios. We compared surveillance strategies by simulating within-farm outbreaks. The output measures were the proportion of infected farms that are detected and the farm reproduction number (R(h)). The first one provides an indication of the sensitivity of the surveillance system to detect within-farm infections, whereas R(h) reflects the effectiveness of outbreak detection (i.e., if detection occurs soon enough to bring an epidemic under control). Increasing the sampling frequency was the most effective means of improving the timeliness of detection (i.e., it occurs earlier), whereas increasing the sample size increased the likelihood of detection. Surveillance was only effective in preventing an epidemic if actions were taken within two days of sampling. The strategies were not affected by the quality of the diagnostic test, although performing both serological and virological assays increased the sensitivity of active surveillance. Early detection of LPAI outbreaks in turkeys can be achieved by increasing the sampling frequency for active surveillance, though very frequent sampling may not be sustainable in the long term. We suggest that, when no LPAI virus is circulating yet and there is a low risk of virus introduction, a less frequent sampling approach might be admitted, provided that the surveillance is intensified as soon as the first outbreak is detected.

This study was performed to determine a sampling strategy to quantify the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance on veal calf farms, based on the variation in antimicrobial resistance within and between calves on five farms. Faecal samples from 50 healthy calves (10 calves/farm) were collected. From each individual sample and one pooled faecal sample per farm, 90 selected Escherichia coli isolates were tested for their resistance against 25 mg/L amoxicillin, 25 mg/L tetracycline, 0.5 mg/L cefotaxime, 0.125 mg/L ciprofloxacin and 8/152 mg/L trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (tmp/s) by replica plating. From each faecal sample another 10 selected E. coli isolates were tested for their resistance by broth microdilution as a reference. Logistic regression analysis was performed to compare the odds of testing an isolate resistant between both test methods (replica plating vs. broth microdilution) and to evaluate the effect of pooling faecal samples. Bootstrap analysis was used to investigate the precision of the estimated prevalence of resistance to each antimicrobial obtained by several simulated sampling strategies. Replica plating showed similar odds of E. coli isolates tested resistant compared to broth microdilution, except for ciprofloxacin (OR 0.29, p ≤ 0.05). Pooled samples showed in general lower odds of an isolate being resistant compared to individual samples, although these differences were not significant. Bootstrap analysis showed that within each antimicrobial the various compositions of a pooled sample provided consistent estimates for the mean proportion of resistant isolates. Sampling strategies should be based on the variation in resistance among isolates within faecal samples and between faecal samples, which may vary by antimicrobial. In our study, the optimal sampling strategy from the perspective of precision of the estimated levels of resistance and practicality consists of a pooled faecal sample from 20 individual animals, of which 90 isolates are tested for their susceptibility by replica plating.

Phylogenetic studies have largely contributed to better understand the emergence, spread and evolution of highly pathogenic avian influenza during epidemics, but sampling of genetic data has never been detailed enough to allow mapping of the spatiotemporal spread of avian influenza viruses during a single epidemic. Here, we present genetic data of H7N7 viruses produced from 72% of the poultry farms infected during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. We use phylogenetic analyses to unravel the pathways of virus transmission between farms and between infected areas. In addition, we investigated the evolutionary processes shaping viral genetic diversity, and assess how they could have affected our phylogenetic analyses. Our results show that the H7N7 virus was characterized by a high level of genetic diversity driven mainly by a high neutral substitution rate, purifying selection and limited positive selection. We also identified potential reassortment in the three genes that we have tested, but they had only a limited effect on the resolution of the inter-farm transmission network. Clonal sequencing analyses performed on six farm samples showed that at least one farm sample presented very complex virus diversity and was probably at the origin of chronological anomalies in the transmission network. However, most virus sequences could be grouped within clearly defined and chronologically sound clusters of infection and some likely transmission events between farms located 0.8-13 Km apart were identified. In addition, three farms were found as most likely source of virus introduction in distantly located new areas. These long distance transmission events were likely facilitated by human-mediated transport, underlining the need for strict enforcement of biosafety measures during outbreaks. This study shows that in-depth genetic analysis of virus outbreaks at multiple scales can provide critical information on virus transmission dynamics and can be used to increase our capacity to efficiently control epidemics.

Low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses of H5 and H7 subtypes have the potential to mutate into highly pathogenic strains (HPAI), which can threaten human health and cause huge economic losses. The current knowledge on the mechanisms of mutation from LPAI to HPAI is insufficient for predicting which H5 or H7 strains will mutate into an HPAI strain, and since the molecular changes necessary for the change in virulence seemingly occur at random, the probability of mutation depends on the number of virus replicates, which is associated with the number of birds that acquire infection. We estimated the transmission dynamics of LPAI viruses in turkeys using serosurveillance data from past epidemics in Italy. We fitted the proportions of birds infected in 36 flocks into a hierarchical model to estimate the basic reproduction number (R(0)) and possible variations in R(0) among flocks caused by differences among farms. We also estimated the distributions of the latent and infectious periods, using experimental infection data with outbreak strains. These were then combined with the R(0) to simulate LPAI outbreaks and characterise the resulting dynamics. The estimated mean within-flock R(0) in the population of infected flocks was 5.5, indicating that an infectious bird would infect an average of more than five susceptible birds. The results also indicate that the presence of seropositive birds does not necessarily mean that the virus has already been cleared and the flock is no longer infective, so that seropositive flocks may still constitute a risk of infection for other flocks. In light of these results, the enforcement of appropriate restrictions, the culling of seropositive flocks, or pre-emptive slaughtering may be useful. The model and parameter estimates presented in this paper provide the first complete picture of LPAI dynamics in turkey flocks and could be used for designing a suitable surveillance program.