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The prevalence of Campylobacter infection is generally high among children in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), but the dynamics of its acquisition and clearance are understudied. We aim to quantify this process among children under two years old in eight LMIC using a statistical modeling approach, leveraging enzyme-immunoassay-based Campylobacter genus data and quantitative-PCR-based Campylobacter jejuni/coli data from the MAL-ED study. We developed a Markov model to compare the dynamics of acquisition and clearance of Campylobacter across countries and to explore the effect of antibiotic usage on Campylobacter clearance. Clearance rates were generally higher than acquisition rates, but their magnitude and temporal pattern varied across countries. For C. jejuni/coli, clearance was faster than acquisition throughout the two years at all sites. For Campylobacter spp., the acquisition rate either exceeded or stayed very close to the clearance rate after the first half year in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Tanzania, leading to high prevalence. Bangladesh had the shortest (28 and 57 days) while Brazil had the longest (328 and 306 days) mean times from last clearance to acquisition for Campylobacter spp. and C. jejuni/coli, respectively. South Africa had the shortest (10 and 8 days) while Tanzania had the longest (53 and 41 days) mean times to clearance for Campylobacter spp. and C. jejuni/col, respectively. The use of Macrolide accelerated clearance of C. jejuni/coli in Bangladesh and Peru and of Campylobacter spp. in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Fluoroquinolone showed statistically meaningful effects only in Bangladesh but for both Campylobacter groups. Higher prevalence of Campylobacter infection was mainly driven by a high acquisition rate that was close to or surpassing the clearance rate. Acquisition rate usually peaked in 11–17 months of age, indicating the importance of targeting the first year of life for effective interventions to reduce exposures.

Chagas disease (ChD), caused by infection with the flagellated protozoan, Trypanosoma cruzi, has a complicated transmission cycle with many infection routes. These include vector-borne (via the triatomine (reduviid bug) vector defecating into a skin abrasion, usually following a blood meal), transplacental transmission, blood transfusion, organ transplant, laboratory accident, and foodborne transmission. Foodborne transmission may occur due to ingestion of meat or blood from infected animals or from ingestion of other foods (often fruit juice) contaminated by infected vectors or secretions from reservoir hosts. Despite the high disease burden associated with ChD, it was omitted from the original World Health Organization estimates of foodborne disease burden that were published in 2015. As these estimates are currently being updated, this review presents arguments for including ChD in new estimates of the global burden of foodborne disease. Preliminary calculations suggest a burden of at least 137,000 Disability Adjusted Life Years, but this does not take into account the greater symptom severity associated with foodborne transmission. Thus, we also provide information regarding the greater health burden in endemic areas associated with foodborne infection compared with vector-borne infection, with higher mortality and more severe symptoms. We therefore suggest that it is insufficient to use source attribution alone to determine the foodborne proportion of current burden estimates, as this may underestimate the higher disability and mortality associated with the foodborne infection route.

Abstract Background The Girinka program in Rwanda has contributed to an increase in milk production, as well as to reduced malnutrition and increased incomes. But dairy products can be hazardous to health, potentially transmitting diseases such as bovine brucellosis, tuberculosis, and cause diarrhea. We analyzed the burden of foodborne disease due to consumption of raw milk and other dairy products in Rwanda to support the development of policy options for the improvement of the quality and safety of milk. Methods Disease burden data for five pathogens (Campylobacter spp., nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Cryptosporidium spp., Brucella spp., and Mycobacterium bovis) were extracted from the 2010 WHO Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) database and merged with data of the proportion of foodborne disease attributable to consuming dairy products from FERG and a separately published Structured Expert Elicitation study to generate estimates of the uncertainty distributions of the disease burden by Monte Carlo simulation. Results According to WHO, the foodborne disease burden (all foods) of these five pathogens in Rwanda in 2010 was like or lower than in the Africa E subregion as defined by FERG. There were 57,500 illnesses occurring in Rwanda owing to consumption of dairy products, 55 deaths and 3,870 Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) causing a cost-of-illness of $3.2 million. 44% of the burden (in DALYs) was attributed to drinking raw milk and sizeable proportions were also attributed to traditionally (16–23%) or industrially (6–22%) fermented milk. More recent data are not available, but the burden (in DALYs) of tuberculosis and diarrheal disease by all causes in Rwanda has declined between 2010 and 2019 by 33% and 46%, respectively. Conclusion This is the first study examining the WHO estimates of the burden of foodborne disease on a national level in Rwanda. Transitioning from consuming raw to processed milk (fermented, heat treated or otherwise) may prevent a considerable disease burden and cost-of-illness, but the full benefits will only be achieved if there is a simultaneous improvement of pathogen inactivation during processing, and prevention of recontamination of processed products.

The majority of emerging infectious diseases are zoonoses, most of which are classified as “neglected”. By affecting both humans and animals, zoonoses pose a dual burden. The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) metric quantifies human health burden since it combines mortality and morbidity. This review aims to describe and analyze the current state of evidence on neglected zoonotic diseases (NZDs) burden and start a discussion on the current understanding of the global burden of NZDs.We identified 26 priority NZDs through consulting three international repositories for national prioritization exercises. A systematic review of global and national burden of disease (BoD) studies was conducted using pre-selected databases. Data on diseases, location and DALYs were extracted for each eligible study.A total of 1887 records were screened, resulting in 74 eligible studies. The highest number of BoD was found for non-typhoidal salmonellosis (23), whereas no estimates were found for West Nile, Marburg and Lassa fever. Geographically, the highest number of studies was performed in the Netherlands (11), China (5) and Iran (4). The number of BoD retrieved mismatched the perceived importance in national prioritization exercises. For example, anthrax was considered a priority NZD in 65 countries; however, only one national study estimating BoD was retrieved. By summing the available global estimates, the selected NZDs caused at least 21 million DALYs per year, a similar order of magnitude to (but less than) the burden due to foodborne disease (included in the Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group).The global burden of disease landscape of NZDs remains scattered. There are several priority NZDs for which no burden estimates exist, and the number of BoD studies does not reflect national disease priorities. To have complete and consistent estimates of the global burden of NZDs, these diseases should be integrated in larger global burden of disease initiatives.

Abstract Background Estimates by the World Health Organization indicate that over 800,000 global neonatal deaths each year are attributed to deviations from recommended best practices in infant feeding. Identifying factors promoting ideal breastfeeding practices may facilitate efforts to decrease neonatal and infant death rates and progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals set for 2030. Though numerous studies have identified the benefits of breastfeeding in reducing the risk of childhood undernutrition, infection and illness, and mortality in low- and middle-income countries, no studies have explored predictors of breastfeeding practices in rural eastern Ethiopia, where undernutrition is widespread. The aim of this study is to examine predictors of infant feeding practices in Haramaya, Ethiopia, using a multi-level conceptual framework. Methods This study uses data collected from household questionnaires during the Campylobacter Genomics and Environmental Enteric Dysfunction (CAGED) project among 102 households in the Haramaya woreda, Eastern Hararghe Zone, Eastern Ethiopia, and investigates factors influencing breastfeeding practices: early initiation, prelacteal feeding, and untimely complementary feeding. Results Nearly half (47.9%) of infants in this study were non-exclusively breastfed (n = 96). Generalized liner mixed effects models of breastfeeding practices revealed that prelacteal feeding may be a common practice in the region (43.9%, n = 98) and characterized by gender differences (p = .03). No factors evaluated were statistically significantly predictive of early initiation and untimely complementary feeding (82% and 14%, respectively). Severely food insecure mothers had more than 72% lower odds of early breastfeeding initiation, and participants who self-reported as being illiterate had 1.53 times greater odds of untimely complementary feeding (95% CI, [0.30,7.69]) followed by male children having 1.45 greater odds of being untimely complementary fed compared to female (95% CI,[0.40,5.37]). Conclusions This study found high rates of prelacteal feeding and low prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding, with girls more likely to be exclusively breastfed. While no predictors evaluated in this multi-level framework were associated with prevalence of early initiation or complementary feeding, rates may be clinically meaningful in a region burdened by undernutrition. Findings raise questions about gendered breastfeeding norms, the under-examined role of khat consumption on infant feeding, and the complex factors that affect breastfeeding practices in this region. This information may be used to guide future research questions and inform intervention strategies.

Abstract Background Globally, foodborne diseases result in a significant disease burden with low- and middle-income countries disproportionately affected. Estimates of healthcare costs related to foodborne disease can aid decision makers to take action to mitigate risks and prevent illness. However, only limited data on the African continent are available, especially related to more severe sequelae. We provide estimates of direct and indirect (non)-medical costs of patients with diarrhoea, Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), and invasive non-typhoidal salmonellosis (iNTS) in three healthcare facilities in Gondar, Ethiopia. Methods We used healthcare data from patient records, interviews with family caregivers and 2020 healthcare resource unit costs. Descriptive statistical analysis was performed. For diarrhoea, differences in mean and median transformed costs between healthcare facilities and etiologies (Campylobacter spp., enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica) were analysed with ANOVA and chi squared tests. Contribution of healthcare facility, dehydration severity, sex, age and living area to transformed costs was identified with linear regression. Results are in 2020 USD per patient. To extrapolate to national level, 2017 national incidence estimates were used. Results Mean direct medical costs were 8.96 USD for diarrhoea (health centre 6.50 USD, specialised hospital 9.53 USD, private clinic 10.56 USD), 267.70 USD for GBS, and 47.79 USD for iNTS. Differences in costs between diarrhoea patients were mainly associated with healthcare facility. Most costs did not differ between etiologies. Total costs of a diarrhoea patient in the specialised hospital were 67 USD, or 8% of gross national income per capita. For direct medical plus transport costs of a GBS and iNTS patient in the specialised hospital, this was 33% and 8%, respectively. Of the 83.9 million USD estimated national non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica related cost, 12.2% was due to iNTS, and of 187.8 million USD related to Campylobacter spp., 0.2% was due to GBS. Conclusion Direct medical costs per patient due to GBS and iNTS were 30 respectively five times those due to diarrhoea. Costs of a patient with diarrhoea, GBS or iNTS can be a substantial part of a household’s income. More severe sequalae can add substantially to cost-of-illness of foodborne hazards causing diarrheal disease.

IntroductionFoodborne diseases (FBD) are a significant problem in low- and middle-income countries, especially in Africa. Country-specific estimates of the economic costs related to FBD caused by different hazards in different food products can inform decision makers about this problem’s magnitude. This aids policy makers in prioritising actions to mitigate risks and prevent illness. Although estimates exist for many high-income countries, they are lacking for African countries.MethodsThis study estimates economic cost in Burkina Faso and Ethiopia related to FBD caused by non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica (NTS), Campylobacter spp. (CAMP) and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) in all foods, chicken meat and tomatoes. The World Health Organization’s estimates of FBD burden, updated from 2010 to 2017, were used as a basis. Economic cost estimates were the sum of estimates of willingness-to-pay (WTP) to reduce risk of death and of pain and suffering, and lost productivity. WTP was based on value of statistical life (VSL) and value of statistical life year (VSLY), extrapolated from USA data. We used sensitivity options to account for uncertainty in these values.ResultsMean economic costs related to FBD caused by NTS, CAMP and ETEC in 2017 were estimated at 391 million constant 2017 international dollars in Burkina Faso and 723 million in Ethiopia. These represent 3.0% of gross national income in Burkina Faso and 0.9% in Ethiopia. Lost productivity contributed 70%, WTP to reduce risk of death 30%, and WTP to reduce risk of pain and suffering 1-2%. NTS caused the highest costs, followed by ETEC and CAMP. Chicken meat caused 9-12 times higher costs than tomatoes. Children under five years (14.6-17.1% of populations) bore 20-75% of the costs. Due to uncertainty in disease burden and economic data, costs could be four times higher than mean estimates.DiscussionPolicies to control FBD likely result in substantial benefits, especially efforts aiming at this study’s hazards in chicken meat and children under 5 years. Efforts to reduce uncertainty in VSL, VSLY and disease burden estimates, estimate costs for other countries, attribute costs to other food products and hazards, further standardise estimation methodologies, and estimate treatment costs and illness prevention expenditures are recommended.

Agriculture, and particularly livestock and animal source foods, has been closely linked to improvements in human nutrition. Production, income, and women’s empowerment improve household food security and child nutritional outcomes in interacting ways. Khat production in Eastern Ethiopia is changing the economic and livelihood landscape for communities that have traditionally relied upon small-scale mixed agriculture and livestock production. How this shifting livelihood landscape and the empowerment of women in these communities are affecting nutritional outcomes has not been investigated. Using cross-sectional data collected during formative research for the Campylobacter Genomics and Environmental Enteric Dysfunction (CAGED) project, we developed models to examine the roles of livelihood activities, including livestock production, staple crop production, and khat production, and women’s empowerment in child nutrition outcomes. Survey participants were randomly selected mothers of children aged 10–15 months from Haramaya district, Eastern Hararghe, Oromia, Ethiopia. Nested logistic regression models were performed for each nutrition outcome: children’s animal source food consumption, children’s dietary diversity, and child stunting, wasting, and underweight. Explanatory variables included those for livelihood (tropical livestock unit, crop production, and khat production ladder) and women’s empowerment (as indicated by domains of the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index), and covariates including child sex, mother’s age, mother’s education, assets, income, and kebele. Results indicated that khat production and tropical livestock units were not significantly associated with any of the child nutrition outcomes. However, results did indicate that the odds of reporting child animal source food consumption in households where the mother was empowered in the leadership domain was 3.33 times that in households where the mother wasn’t (p

Foodborne disease is a significant global health problem, with low- and middle-income countries disproportionately affected. Given that most fresh animal and vegetable foods in LMICs are bought in informal food systems, much the burden of foodborne disease in LMIC is also linked to informal markets. Developing estimates of the national burden of foodborne disease and attribution to specific food products will inform decision-makers about the size of the problem and motivate action to mitigate risks and prevent illness. This study provides estimates for the burden of foodborne disease caused by selected hazards in two African countries (Burkina Faso and Ethiopia) and attribution to specific foods. Country-specific estimates of the burden of disease in 2010 for Campylobacter spp., enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), Shiga-toxin producing E. coli and non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica were obtained from WHO and updated to 2017 using data from the Global Burden of Disease study. Attribution data obtained from WHO were complemented with a dedicated Structured Expert Judgement study to estimate the burden attributable to specific foods. Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to propagate uncertainty. The burden of foodborne disease in the two countries in 2010 was largely similar to the burden in the region except for higher mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to Salmonella in Burkina Faso. In both countries, Campylobacter caused the largest number of cases, while Salmonella caused the largest number of deaths and DALYs. In Burkina Faso, the burden of Campylobacter and ETEC increased from 2010 to 2017, while the burden of Salmonella decreased. In Ethiopia, the burden of all hazards decreased. Mortality decreased relative to incidence in both countries. In both countries, the burden of poultry meat (in DALYs) was larger than the burden of vegetables. In Ethiopia, the burdens of beef and dairy were similar, and somewhat lower than the burden of vegetables. The burden of foodborne disease by the selected pathogens and foods in both countries was substantial. Uncertainty distributions around the estimates spanned several orders of magnitude. This reflects data limitations, as well as variability in the transmission and burden of foodborne disease associated with the pathogens considered.

Introduction Undernutrition is an underlying cause of mortality in children under five (CU5) years of age. Animal-source foods have been shown to decrease malnutrition in CU5. Livestock are important reservoirs for Campylobacter bacteria, which are recognised as risk factors for child malnutrition. Increasing livestock production may be beneficial for improving nutrition of children but these benefits may be negated by increased exposure to Campylobacter and research is needed to evaluate the complex pathways of Campylobacter exposure and infection applicable to low-income and middle-income countries. We aim to identify reservoirs of infection with Campylobacter spp. of infants in rural Eastern Ethiopia and evaluate interactions with child health (environmental enteric dysfunction and stunting) in the context of their sociodemographic environment.Methods and analysis This longitudinal study involves 115 infants who are followed from birth to 12 months of age and are selected randomly from 10 kebeles of Haramaya woreda, East Hararghe zone, Oromia region, Ethiopia. Questionnaire-based information is obtained on demographics, livelihoods, wealth, health, nutrition and women empowerment; animal ownership/management and diseases; and water, sanitation and hygiene. Faecal samples are collected from infants, mothers, siblings and livestock, drinking water and soil. These samples are analysed by a range of phenotypic and genotypic microbiological methods to characterise the genetic structure of the Campylobacter population in each of these reservoirs, which will support inference about the main sources of exposure for infants.Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval was obtained from the University of Florida Internal Review Board (IRB201903141), the Haramaya University Institutional Health Research Ethics Committee (COHMS/1010/3796/20) and the Ethiopia National Research Ethics Review Committee (SM/14.1/1059/20). Written informed consent is obtained from all participating households. Research findings will be disseminated to stakeholders through conferences and peer-reviewed journals and through the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Livestock Systems.

BackgroundAccording to the World Health Organization, 600 million cases of foodborne disease occurred in 2010. To inform risk management strategies aimed at reducing this burden, attribution to specific foods is necessary.ObjectiveWe present attribution estimates for foodborne pathogens (Campylobacter spp., enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), Shiga-toxin producing E. coli, nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Cryptosporidium spp., Brucella spp., and Mycobacterium bovis) in three African countries (Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Rwanda) to support risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis in three projects aimed at increasing safety of beef, dairy, poultry meat and vegetables in these countries.MethodsWe used the same methodology as the World Health Organization, i.e., Structured Expert Judgment according to Cooke's Classical Model, using three different panels for the three countries. Experts were interviewed remotely and completed calibration questions during the interview without access to any resources. They then completed target questions after the interview, using resources as considered necessary. Expert data were validated using two objective measures, calibration score or statistical accuracy, and information score. Performance-based weights were derived from the two measures to aggregate experts' distributions into a so-called decision maker. The analysis was made using Excalibur software, and resulting distributions were normalized using Monte Carlo simulation.ResultsIndividual experts' uncertainty assessments resulted in modest statistical accuracy and high information scores, suggesting overconfident assessments. Nevertheless, the optimized item-weighted decision maker was statistically accurate and informative. While there is no evidence that animal pathogenic ETEC strains are infectious to humans, a sizeable proportion of ETEC illness was attributed to animal source foods as experts considered contamination of food products by infected food handlers can occur at any step in the food chain. For all pathogens, a major share of the burden was attributed to food groups of interest. Within food groups, the highest attribution was to products consumed raw, but processed products were also considered important sources of infection.ConclusionsCooke's Classical Model with performance-based weighting provided robust uncertainty estimates of the attribution of foodborne disease in three African countries. Attribution estimates will be combined with country-level estimates of the burden of foodborne disease to inform decision making by national authorities.

Provision of safe drinking water in the United States is a great public health achievement. However, new waterborne disease challenges have emerged (e.g., aging infrastructure, chlorine-tolerant and biofilm-related pathogens, increased recreational water use). Comprehensive estimates of the health burden for all water exposure routes (ingestion, contact, inhalation) and sources (drinking, recreational, environmental) are needed. We estimated total illnesses, emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, deaths, and direct healthcare costs for 17 waterborne infectious diseases. About 7.15 million waterborne illnesses occur annually (95% credible interval [CrI] 3.88 million–12.0 million), results in 601,000 ED visits (95% CrI 364,000–866,000), 118,000 hospitalizations (95% CrI 86,800–150,000), and 6,630 deaths (95% CrI 4,520–8,870) and incurring US $3.33 billion (95% CrI 1.37 billion–8.77 billion) in direct healthcare costs. Otitis externa and norovirus infection were the most common illnesses. Most hospitalizations and deaths were caused by biofilm-associated pathogens (nontuberculous mycobacteria, Pseudomonas, Legionella), costing US $2.39 billion annually.

Illnesses transmitted by food and water cause a major disease burden in the United States despite advancements in food safety, water treatment, and sanitation. We report estimates from a structured expert judgment study using 48 experts who applied Cooke’s classical model of the proportion of disease attributable to 5 major transmission pathways (foodborne, waterborne, person-to-person, animal contact, and environmental) and 6 subpathways (food handler–related, under foodborne; recreational, drinking, and nonrecreational/nondrinking, under waterborne; and presumed person-to-person-associated and presumed animal contact-associated, under environmental). Estimates for 33 pathogens were elicited, including bacteria such as Salmonella enterica, Campylobacter spp., Legionella spp., and Pseudomonas spp.; protozoa such as Acanthamoeba spp., Cyclospora cayetanensis, and Naegleria fowleri; and viruses such as norovirus, rotavirus, and hepatitis A virus. The results highlight the importance of multiple pathways in the transmission of the included pathogens and can be used to guide prioritization of public health interventions.

ABSTRACT The presence of Salmonella in poultry litter, when used as a biological soil amendment, presents a risk for the preharvest contamination of fresh produce. Poultry litter is rich in organic nitrogen, and previous studies have suggested that ammonia (NH3) in poultry litter may affect the survival of Salmonella. Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium was inoculated into buffer solutions to characterize the pH dependency, minimum antimicrobial concentration, and efficacy of NH3 production. In solutions with 0.4 M total ammonia nitrogen (TAN) at various pH levels (5, 7, 8, and 9), significant inactivation of Salmonella only occurred at pH 9. Salmonella was reduced by ∼8 log CFU/mL within 12 to 18 h at 0.09, 0.18, 0.26, and 0.35 M NH3. The minimum antimicrobial concentration tested was 0.04 M NH3, resulting in an ∼7 log CFU/mL reduction after 24 h. Solutions with urea (1% and 2%) and urease enzymes rapidly produced NH3, which significantly reduced Salmonella within 12 h. The urease-producing bacterium Corynebacterium urealyticum showed no antagonistic effects against Salmonella in solution. Conversely, with 1% urea added, C. urealyticum rapidly produced NH3 in solution and significantly reduced Salmonella within 12 h. Salmonella inactivation data were nonlinear and fitted to Weibull models (Weibull, Weibull with tailing effects, and double Weibull) to describe their inactivation kinetics. These results suggest that high NH3 levels in poultry litter may reduce the risk of contamination in this biological soil amendment. This study will guide future research on the influence of ammonia on the survival and persistence of Salmonella in poultry litter. IMPORTANCE Poultry litter is a widely used biological soil amendment in the production of fresh produce. However, poultry litter may contain human pathogens, such as Salmonella, which introduces the risk of preharvest produce contamination in agricultural fields. Ammonia in poultry litter, produced through bacterial degradation of urea, may be detrimental to the survival of Salmonella; however, these effects are not fully understood. This study utilized aqueous buffer solutions to demonstrate that the antimicrobial efficacy of ammonia against Salmonella is dependent on alkaline pH levels, where increasing concentrations of ammonia led to more rapid inactivation. Inactivation was also demonstrated in the presence of urea and urease or urease-producing Corynebacterium urealyticum. These findings suggest that high levels of ammonia in poultry litter may reduce the risk of contamination in biological soil amendments and will guide further studies on the survival and persistence of Salmonella in poultry litter.

Livestock production may improve nutritional outcomes of pregnant women and children by increasing household income, availability of nutrient-dense foods, and women's empowerment. Nevertheless, the relationship is complex, and the nutritional status of children may be impaired by presence of or proximity to livestock and their pathogens. In this paper, we review the benefits and risks of livestock production on child nutrition. Evidence supports the nutritional benefits of livestock farming through income, production, and women's empowerment. Increasing animal source food consumption requires a combination of efforts, including improved animal management so that herd size is adequate to meet household income needs and consumption and addressing sociocultural and gendered norms. Evidence supports the inclusion of behavior change communication strategies into livestock production interventions to facilitate the sustainability of nutritional benefits over time, particularly interventions that engage women and foster dimensions of women's empowerment. In evaluating the risks of livestock production, evidence indicates that a broad range of enteric pathogens may chronically infect the intestines of children and, in combination with dietary deficits, may cause environmental enteric dysfunction (EED), a chronic inflammation of the gut. Some of the most important pathogens associated with EED are zoonotic in nature with livestock as their main reservoir. Very few studies have aimed to understand which livestock species contribute most to colonization with these pathogens, or how to reduce transmission. Control at the point of exposure has been investigated in a few studies, but much less effort has been spent on improving animal husbandry practices, which may have additional benefits. There is an urgent need for dedicated and long-term research to understand which livestock species contribute most to exposure of young children to zoonotic enteric pathogens, to test the potential of a wide range of intervention methods, to assess their effectiveness in randomized trials, and to assure their broad adaptation and sustainability. This review highlights the benefits and risks of livestock production on child nutrition. In addition to identifying research gaps, findings support inclusion of poor gut health as an immediate determinant of child undernutrition, expanding the established UNICEF framework which includes only inadequate diet and disease.

The state of Florida reports a high burden of non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica with approximately two times higher than the national incidence. We retrospectively analyzed the population structure and molecular epidemiology of 1,709 clinical isolates from 2017 and 2018. We found 115 different serotypes. Rarefaction suggested that the serotype richness did not differ between children under 2 years of age and older children and adults and, there are ~22 well-characterized dominant serotypes. There were distinct differences in dominant serotypes between Florida and the USA as a whole, even though S. Enteritidis and S. Newport were the dominant serotypes in Florida and nationally. S. Javiana, S. Sandiego, and S. IV 50:z4, z23:- occurred more frequently in Florida than nationally. Legacy Multi Locus Sequence Typing (MLST) was of limited use for differentiating clinical Salmonella isolates beyond the serotype level. We utilized core genome MLST (cgMLST) hierarchical clusters (HC) to identify potential outbreaks and compared them to outbreaks detected by Pulse Field Gel Electrophoresis (PFGE) surveillance for five dominant serotypes (Enteritidis, Newport, Javiana, Typhimurium, and Bareilly). Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) phylogenetic-analysis of cgMLST HC at allelic distance 5 or less (HC5) corroborated PFGE detected outbreaks and generated well-segregated SNP distance-based clades for all studied serotypes. We propose “combination approach” comprising “HC5 clustering,” as efficient tool to trigger Salmonella outbreak investigations, and “SNP-based analysis,” for higher resolution phylogeny to confirm an outbreak. We also applied this approach to identify case clusters, more distant in time and place than traditional outbreaks but may have been infected from a common source, comparing 176 Florida clinical isolates and 1,341 non-clinical isolates across USA, of most prevalent serotype Enteritidis collected during 2017–2018. Several clusters of closely related isolates (0–4 SNP apart) within HC5 clusters were detected and some included isolates from poultry from different states in the US, spanning time periods over 1 year. Two SNP-clusters within the same HC5 cluster included isolates with the same multidrug-resistant profile from both humans and poultry, supporting the epidemiological link. These clusters likely reflect the vertical transmission of Salmonella clones from higher levels in the breeding pyramid to production flocks.

Cigarette smoking and other addictive behaviors are among the main preventable risk factors for several severe and potentially fatal diseases. It has been argued that addictive behavior is controlled by an automatic-implicit cognitive system and by a reflective-explicit cognitive system, that operate in parallel to jointly drive human behavior. The present study addresses the formation of implicit attitudes towards smoking in both smokers and non-smokers, using a Go/NoGo association task (GNAT), and behavioral and electroencephalographic (EEG) measures. The GNAT assesses, via quantifying participants’ reaction times, the strength of association between a target category and either pole of an evaluative dimension (positive or negative). EEG analysis is performed to determine the temporal course of the event-related potential (ERP) components underlying Go/NoGo decisions and implicit attitude formation. Both smokers and non-smokers showed prolonged reaction times to smoking-related pictures when the pictures were coupled with positive evaluative words (“incongruent condition”). This indicates negative implicit attitudes towards smoking in both groups alike at the time point of the behavioral response (600–700 ms post-stimulus). However, only the non-smokers, not the smokers, were found to show a delay of the N200 component in the incongruent condition. This is interpreted as reflecting ambivalent or even positive implicit attitudes towards smoking in the smoker group at the time point of the N200 (300–400 ms post-stimulus). Our study thus provides evidence for the hypothesis that implicit attitudes are subject to changes within several hundred milliseconds after stimulus presentation, and can be altered in the course of their formation.

Livestock farming provides a possible mechanism by which smallholder farmers can meet their household need for animal source foods (ASF), which may reduce the risk of stunting. However, direct/indirect contacts with domestic animals may increase colonization by Campylobacter spp., which has been associated with Environmental Enteric Dysfunction (EED) and stunting. A cross-sectional study involving 102 randomly selected children between 12 and 16 months of age was conducted in rural eastern Ethiopia to establish prevalence rates of Campylobacter colonization, EED, and stunting, and evaluate potential risk factors. Data were collected between September and December 2018. The prevalence of EED and stunting was 50% (95% CI: 40–60%) and 41% (95% CI: 32–51%), respectively. Among enrolled children, 56% had consumed some ASF in the previous 24 h; 47% had diarrhea and 50% had fever in the past 15 days. 54, 63, 71 or 43% of households owned at least one chicken, cow/bull, goat, or sheep; 54 (53%) households kept chickens indoors overnight and only half of these confined the animals. Sanitation was poor, with high levels of unimproved latrines and open defecation. Most households had access to an improved source of drinking water. The prevalence of Campylobacter colonization was 50% (95% CI: 41–60%) by PCR. In addition to the thermotolerant species Campylobacter jejuni, Campylobacter coli and Campylobacter upsaliensis, non-thermotolerant species related to Campylobacter hyointestinalis and Campylobacter fetus were frequently detected by Meta-total RNA sequencing (MeTRS). Current breastfeeding and ASF consumption increased the odds of Campylobacter detection by PCR, while improved drinking water supply decreased the odds of EED. No risk factors were significantly associated with stunting. Further studies are necessary to better understand reservoirs and transmission pathways of Campylobacter spp. and their potential impact on child health.

Non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica infections cause a high disease burden in the United States with an estimated 1.2 million illnesses annually. The state of Florida consistently has a relatively high incidence compared to other states in the United States. Nevertheless, studies regarding the epidemiology of nontyphoidal salmonellosis and its spatial and temporal patterns in Florida were rarely reported. We examined the spatial and temporal patterns of 62,947 salmonellosis cases reported to FL Health Charts between 2009 and 2018. Dominant serotypes circulating in Florida were also explored using whole genome sequencing (WGS) based serotype-prediction for 2,507 Salmonella isolates sequenced by the Florida Department of Health during 2017 and 2018. The representativeness of laboratory-sequenced isolates for reported cases was determined by regression modeling. The annual incidence rate of salmonellosis decreased from 36.0 per 100,000 population in 2009 to 27.8 per 100,000 in 2016, and gradually increased in 2017 and 2018. Increased use of culture-independent testing did not fully explain this increase. The highest incidence rate was observed in children, contributing 40.9% of total reported cases during this period. A seasonal pattern was observed with the incidence peaking in September and October, later than the national average pattern. Over these 10 years, the Northeast and Northwest regions of the state had higher reported incidence rates, while reported rates in the Southeast and South were gradually increasing over time. Serotypes were predicted based on WGS data in the EnteroBase platform. The top-five most prevalent serotypes in Florida during 2017–2018 were Enteritidis, Newport, Javiana, Sandiego and Braenderup. The highest percentage of isolates was from children under 5 years of age (41.4%), and stool (84.7%) was the major source of samples. A zero-inflated negative binomial regression model showed that the reported case number was a strong predictor for the number of lab-sequenced isolates in individual counties, and the geospatial distribution of sequenced isolates was not biased by other factors such as age group. The spatial and temporal patterns identified in this study along with the prevalence of different serotypes will be helpful for the development of efficient prevention and control strategies for salmonellosis in Florida.

Deceptive behavior, and the evaluation of others’ behavior as truthful or deceptive, are crucial aspects of human social interaction. We report a study investigating two participants in a social interaction, performing a deception task. The first participant, the “informant,” made true or false autobiographical statements. The second participant, the “detective,” then classified these statements as truth or lie. Behavioral data showed that detectives performed slightly above chance and were better at correctly identifying true as compared with deceptive statements. This presumably reflects the “truth bias”: the finding that individuals are more likely to classify others’ statements as truthful than as deceptive – even when informed that a lie is as likely to be told as the truth. Electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded from the informant. Event-related potential (ERP) analysis revealed a smaller contingent negative variation (CNV) preceding “convincing” statements (statements classified as true by the detective) compared to “unconvincing” statements (statements classified as lie by the detective) – irrespective of whether the statements were actually truthful or deceptive. This finding suggests a distinct electrocortical signature of “successful” compared to “unsuccessful” deceptive statements. One possible explanation is that the pronounced CNV indicates the individuals’ higher “cognitive load” when processing unconvincing statements.

High Campylobacter prevalence during early childhood has been associated with stunting and environmental enteric dysfunction (EED), especially in low resource settings. This study assessed the prevalence, diversity, abundance, and co-occurrence of Campylobacter spp. in stools from children in a rural area of eastern Ethiopia and their association with microbiome, diarrhea, and EED in children. Stool samples (n = 100) were collected from randomly selected children (age range: 360–498 days) in five kebeles in Haramaya District, Ethiopia. Diarrhea, compromised gut permeability, and gut inflammation were observed in 48, 45, and 57% of children, respectively. Campylobacter prevalence and species diversity were assessed using PCR and meta-total RNA sequencing (MeTRS). The prevalence of Campylobacter spp. in the children's stools was 50% (41–60%) by PCR and 88% (80–93.6%) by MeTRS (P < 0.01). Further, seven Campylobacter species (Campylobacter jejuni, Campylobacter upsaliensis, Campylobacter hyointestinalis, Campylobacter coli, Campylobacter sp. RM6137, uncultured Campylobacter sp., and Campylobacter sp. RM12175) were detected by MeTRS in at least 40% of children stools in high abundance (>1.76-log read per million per positive stool sample). Four clusters of Campylobacter species (5–12 species per cluster) co-occurred in the stool samples, suggesting that Campylobacter colonization of children may have occurred through multiple reservoirs or from a reservoir in which several Campylobacter species may co-inhabit. No associations between Campylobacter spp., EED, and diarrhea were detected in this cross-sectional study; however, characteristic microbiome profiles were identified based on the prevalence of Campylobacter spp., EED severity, and diarrhea. Forty-seven bacterial species were correlated with Campylobacter, and 13 of them also correlated with gut permeability, gut inflammation and/or EED severity. Forty-nine species not correlated with Campylobacter were correlated with gut permeability, gut inflammation, EED severity and/or diarrhea. This study demonstrated that (1) in addition to C. jejuni and C. coli, multiple non-thermophilic Campylobacter spp. (i.e., Campylobacter hyointestinalis, Campylobacter fetus, and Campylobacter concisus) were frequently detected in the children's stools and (2) the Campylobacter, gut permeability, gut inflammation, EED severity, and diarrhea were associated with characteristic microbiome composition. Additional spatial and longitudinal studies are needed to identify environmental reservoirs and sources of infection of children with disparate Campylobacter species and to better define their associations with EED in low-income countries.

The burden of human diseases in populations, or for an individual, is frequently estimated in terms of one of a number of Health Adjusted Life Years (HALYs). The Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) is a widely accepted HALY metric and is used by the World Health Organization and the Global Burden of Disease studies. Many human diseases are of animal origin and often cause ill health and production losses in domestic animals. The economic losses due to disease in animals are usually estimated in monetary terms. The monetary impact on animal health is not compatible with HALY approaches used to measure the impact on human health. To estimate the societal burden of zoonotic diseases that have substantial human and animal disease burden we propose methodology which can be accommodated within the DALY framework. Monetary losses due to the animal disease component of a zoonotic disease can be converted to an equivalent metric using a local gross national income per capita deflator. This essentially gives animal production losses a time trade-off for human life years. This is the time required to earn the income needed to replace that financial loss. This can then be assigned a DALY equivalent, termed animal loss equivalents (ALE), and added to the DALY associated with human ill health to give a modified DALY. This is referred to as the “zDALY”. ALEs could also be estimated using willingness-to-pay for animal health or survey tools to estimate the replacement time value for animals with high societal or emotional value (for example pets) that cannot be calculated directly using monetary worth. Thus the zDALY estimates the impact of a zoonotic disease to animal and human health. The losses due to the animal disease component of the modified DALY are straightforward to calculate. A number of worked examples such as echinococcosis, brucellosis, Q fever and cysticercosis from a diverse spectrum of countries with different levels of economic development illustrate the use of the zDALY indicator. Keywords: Disability-adjusted life years, Zoonotic diseases, Societal impact, Burden of disease, Animal disease losses

Abstract Background The Dutch government has set targets for reduction of antimicrobial usage in food animals, stipulating a 50% reduction in usage (on a weight basis) in 2013 as compared to 2009 and a 70% decrease in 2015. A monitoring program has been instituted to evaluate the impact on antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The Dutch Ministry of Public Health Welfare and Sports has expressed the need for a summary index to present the results of the monitoring data concisely to policy makers. Methods We use data on AMR in bacteria from randomly collected samples from broiler chickens, fattening pigs, veal calves and dairy cows. Escherichia coli was selected for resistance monitoring because they are intrinsically susceptible to the antibiotics included in the test panel (ciprofloxacin, cefotaxime, tetracycline and ampicillin) and they are present in all samples, which facilitates proper randomization and trend analysis. The AMR summary index was calculated for each animal species as a weighted average over the four antibiotics, taking into account their clinical relevance. Weights were obtained by conjoint analysis, a pairwise comparison study involving infectious diseases professionals with clinical and public health backgrounds, with data analysis by conditional logistic regression. The AMR summary index was then computed by Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for sampling and regression uncertainty. Results The highest weights (0.35) were given to ciprofloxacin and cefotaxime followed by ampicillin (0.23) and tetracycline (0.07). Throughout the years, the AMR index was highest in broiler chickens, followed by pigs and veal calves, while the lowest values were consistently recorded in dairy cows. In all animal species, the index in 2014 was significantly lower than in 2009. Conclusions We demonstrate that high-dimensional data on surveillance of antimicrobial resistance can be summarized in an index for evaluating trends between and within food animal species by a process involving decision makers and scientists to select and weight the most relevant antibiotics.

In a time of increasing threats and decreasing financial resources, monitoring and controlling all possible foodborne hazards at the same time and to the same extent has become more challenging than ever. Therefore, attention is increasingly being paid to the so-called “risk ranking” methods that enable decision makers to focus on the most important foodborne hazards — even when time is limited and knowledge incomplete. In this review paper, we provide an overview of the most common quantitative methods and metrics used for ranking the risks associated with foodborne parasites and present the state of the art on risk ranking exercises for foodborne parasites.A number of risk ranking metrics and methods are available, ranging from simple approaches that can be used to assess the health or economic impact of a foodborne parasitic disease, to more complicated but more comprehensive multi-criteria assessments. For health impact assessment, measures of population health such as disease occurrence and number of deaths; Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) measuring the healthy life years lost; and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) measuring the number of life years lived in optimal health, are described. For economic impact assessment, applied approaches that measure the cost-of-illness from a societal perspective and stated preference methods are outlined. Finally, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), which can be used to integrate multiple metrics and criteria into a single ranking, is described.These risk ranking methods for foodborne parasites are increasingly performed to aid priority setting at global, regional, and national levels. As different stakeholders have their own prioritization objectives and beliefs, the outcome of such exercises is necessarily context-dependent. Therefore, when designing a risk ranking exercise for foodborne parasites, it is important to choose the metrics and methods, as well as what to rank, in the light of the predefined context of the question being addressed and the target audience. Keywords: Cost-of-illness, Disability-adjusted life years, Foodborne parasites, Multi-criteria decision analysis, Priority setting

Animal source foods (ASF) such as dairy, eggs, fish and meat are an important source of high-quality nutrients. Lack of ASF in diets can result in developmental disorders including stunting, anemia, poor cognitive and motor development. ASF are more effective in preventing stunting than other foods and promoting ASF consumption in low- and middle-income countries could help improve health, particularly among pregnant women and young children. Production and consumption of ASF are, however, also associated with potential food safety risks. Strengthening of food control systems, informed by quantitative assessments of the disease burden associated with ASF is necessary to meet global nutrition goals. We present the human disease burden associated with 13 pathogens (bacteria and parasites) in ASF, based on an analysis of global burden of foodborne disease (FBD) estimates of the WHO Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG). The FBD burden of these pathogens was combined with estimates of the proportion of disease transmitted by eight main groups of ASF. Uncertainty in all estimates was accounted for by Monte Carlo simulation. In 2010, the global burden of ASF was 168 (95% uncertainty interval (UI 137-219) Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) per 100,000 population, which is approximately 35% of the estimated total burden of FBD. Main pathogens contributing to this burden included non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica, Taenia solium, and Campylobacter spp. The proportion of FBD burden associated with ASF varied considerably between subregions and between countries within subregions. Likewise, the contribution of different pathogens and ASF groups varied strongly between subregions. Pathogens with a localized distribution included T. solium and fishborne trematodes. Pathogens with a global distribution included non-typhoidal S. enterica, Campylobacter spp., Toxoplasma gondii, and Mycobacterium bovis. Control methods exist for many hazards associated with ASF, and their implementation is linked to economic development and effective food safety systems.

Objective To develop transparent and reproducible methods for imputing missing data on disease incidence at national-level for the year 2005. Methods We compared several models for imputing missing country-level incidence rates for two foodborne diseases – congenital toxoplasmosis and aflatoxin-related hepatocellular carcinoma. Missing values were assumed to be missing at random. Predictor variables were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. We compared the predictive performance of naive extrapolation approaches and Bayesian random and mixed-effects regression models. Leave-one-out cross-validation was used to evaluate model accuracy. Findings The predictive accuracy of the Bayesian mixed-effects models was significantly better than that of the naive extrapolation method for one of the two disease models. However, Bayesian mixed-effects models produced wider prediction intervals for both data sets. Conclusion Several approaches are available for imputing missing data at national level. Strengths of a hierarchical regression approach for this type of task are the ability to derive estimates from other similar countries, transparency, computational efficiency and ease of interpretation. The inclusion of informative covariates may improve model performance, but results should be appraised carefully.

BACKGROUND:Infectious disease burden estimates provided by a composite health measure give a balanced view of the true impact of a disease on a population, allowing the relative impact of diseases that differ in severity and mortality to be monitored over time. This article presents the first national disease burden estimates for a comprehensive set of 32 infectious diseases in the Netherlands. METHODS AND FINDINGS:The average annual disease burden was computed for the period 2007-2011 for selected infectious diseases in the Netherlands using the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) measure. The pathogen- and incidence-based approach was adopted to quantify the burden due to both morbidity and premature mortality associated with all short and long-term consequences of infection. Natural history models, disease progression probabilities, disability weights, and other parameters were adapted from previous research. Annual incidence was obtained from statutory notification and other surveillance systems, which was corrected for under-ascertainment and under-reporting. The highest average annual disease burden was estimated for invasive pneumococcal disease (9444 DALYs/year; 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 8911-9961) and influenza (8670 DALYs/year; 95% UI: 8468-8874), which represents 16% and 15% of the total burden of all 32 diseases, respectively. The remaining 30 diseases ranked by number of DALYs/year from high to low were: HIV infection, legionellosis, toxoplasmosis, chlamydia, campylobacteriosis, pertussis, tuberculosis, hepatitis C infection, Q fever, norovirus infection, salmonellosis, gonorrhoea, invasive meningococcal disease, hepatitis B infection, invasive Haemophilus influenzae infection, shigellosis, listeriosis, giardiasis, hepatitis A infection, infection with STEC O157, measles, cryptosporidiosis, syphilis, rabies, variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, tetanus, mumps, rubella, diphtheria, and poliomyelitis. The very low burden for the latter five diseases can be attributed to the National Immunisation Programme. The average disease burden per individual varied from 0.2 (95% UI: 0.1-0.4) DALYs per 100 infections for giardiasis, to 5081 and 3581 (95% UI: 3540-3611) DALYs per 100 infections for rabies and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:For guiding and supporting public health policy decisions regarding the prioritisation of interventions and preventive measures, estimates of disease burden and the comparison of burden between diseases can be informative. Although the collection of disease-specific parameters and estimation of incidence is a process subject to continuous improvement, the current study established a baseline for assessing the impact of future public health initiatives.

BACKGROUND:The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke's Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific 'seed' questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke's Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the 'target' questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts providing estimates for one or more subregions, depending on their experience in the region. The size of the 19 hazard-specific panels ranged from 6 to 15 persons with several experts serving on more than one panel. Pathogens with animal reservoirs (e.g. non-typhoidal Salmonella spp. and Toxoplasma gondii) were in general assessed by the experts to have a higher proportion of illnesses attributable to food than pathogens with mainly a human reservoir, where human-to-human transmission (e.g. Shigella spp. and Norovirus) or waterborne transmission (e.g. Salmonella Typhi and Vibrio cholerae) were judged to dominate. For many pathogens, the foodborne route was assessed relatively more important in developed subregions than in developing subregions. The main exposure routes for lead varied across subregions, with the foodborne route being assessed most important only in two subregions of the European region. CONCLUSIONS:For the first time, we present worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific diseases attributable to food and other major transmission routes. These findings are essential for global burden of FBD estimates. While gaps exist, we believe the estimates presented here are the best current source of guidance to support decision makers when allocating resources for control and intervention, and for future research initiatives.

The public health effects of illness caused by foodborne pathogens in Greece during 1996–2006 was quantified by using publicly available surveillance data, hospital statistics, and literature. Results were expressed as the incidence of different disease outcomes and as disability-adjusted life years (DALY), a health indicator combining illness and death estimates into a single metric. It has been estimated that each year ≈370,000 illnesses/million inhabitants are likely caused because of eating contaminated food; 900 of these illnesses are severe and 3 fatal, corresponding to 896 DALY/million inhabitants. Ill-defined intestinal infections accounted for the greatest part of reported cases and 27% of the DALY. Brucellosis, echinococcosis, salmonellosis, and toxoplasmosis were found to be the most common known causes of foodborne illnesses, being responsible for 70% of the DALY. Overall, the DALY metric provided a quantitative perspective on the impact of foodborne illness that may be useful for prioritizing food safety management targets.

BackgroundFoodborne diseases are important worldwide, resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. To our knowledge, we present the first global and regional estimates of the disease burden of the most important foodborne bacterial, protozoal, and viral diseases.Methods and findingsWe synthesized data on the number of foodborne illnesses, sequelae, deaths, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), for all diseases with sufficient data to support global and regional estimates, by age and region. The data sources included varied by pathogen and included systematic reviews, cohort studies, surveillance studies and other burden of disease assessments. We sought relevant data circa 2010, and included sources from 1990-2012. The number of studies per pathogen ranged from as few as 5 studies for bacterial intoxications through to 494 studies for diarrheal pathogens. To estimate mortality for Mycobacterium bovis infections and morbidity and mortality for invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica infections, we excluded cases attributed to HIV infection. We excluded stillbirths in our estimates. We estimate that the 22 diseases included in our study resulted in two billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-2.9 billion) cases, over one million (95% UI 0.89-1.4 million) deaths, and 78.7 million (95% UI 65.0-97.7 million) DALYs in 2010. To estimate the burden due to contaminated food, we then applied proportions of infections that were estimated to be foodborne from a global expert elicitation. Waterborne transmission of disease was not included. We estimate that 29% (95% UI 23-36%) of cases caused by diseases in our study, or 582 million (95% UI 401-922 million), were transmitted by contaminated food, resulting in 25.2 million (95% UI 17.5-37.0 million) DALYs. Norovirus was the leading cause of foodborne illness causing 125 million (95% UI 70-251 million) cases, while Campylobacter spp. caused 96 million (95% UI 52-177 million) foodborne illnesses. Of all foodborne diseases, diarrheal and invasive infections due to non-typhoidal S. enterica infections resulted in the highest burden, causing 4.07 million (95% UI 2.49-6.27 million) DALYs. Regionally, DALYs per 100,000 population were highest in the African region followed by the South East Asian region. Considerable burden of foodborne disease is borne by children less than five years of age. Major limitations of our study include data gaps, particularly in middle- and high-mortality countries, and uncertainty around the proportion of diseases that were foodborne.ConclusionsFoodborne diseases result in a large disease burden, particularly in children. Although it is known that diarrheal diseases are a major burden in children, we have demonstrated for the first time the importance of contaminated food as a cause. There is a need to focus food safety interventions on preventing foodborne diseases, particularly in low- and middle-income settings.

Illness and death from diseases caused by contaminated food are a constant threat to public health and a significant impediment to socio-economic development worldwide. To measure the global and regional burden of foodborne disease (FBD), the World Health Organization (WHO) established the Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG), which here reports their first estimates of the incidence, mortality, and disease burden due to 31 foodborne hazards. We find that the global burden of FBD is comparable to those of the major infectious diseases, HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. The most frequent causes of foodborne illness were diarrheal disease agents, particularly norovirus and Campylobacter spp. Diarrheal disease agents, especially non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica, were also responsible for the majority of deaths due to FBD. Other major causes of FBD deaths were Salmonella Typhi, Taenia solium and hepatitis A virus. The global burden of FBD caused by the 31 hazards in 2010 was 33 million Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs); children under five years old bore 40% of this burden. The 14 subregions, defined on the basis of child and adult mortality, had considerably different burdens of FBD, with the greatest falling on the subregions in Africa, followed by the subregions in South-East Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean D subregion. Some hazards, such as non-typhoidal S. enterica, were important causes of FBD in all regions of the world, whereas others, such as certain parasitic helminths, were highly localised. Thus, the burden of FBD is borne particularly by children under five years old-although they represent only 9% of the global population-and people living in low-income regions of the world. These estimates are conservative, i.e., underestimates rather than overestimates; further studies are needed to address the data gaps and limitations of the study. Nevertheless, all stakeholders can contribute to improvements in food safety throughout the food chain by incorporating these estimates into policy development at national and international levels.

Background Chemical exposures have been associated with a variety of health effects; however, little is known about the global disease burden from foodborne chemicals. Food can be a major pathway for the general population’s exposure to chemicals, and for some chemicals, it accounts for almost 100% of exposure. Methods and Findings Groups of foodborne chemicals, both natural and anthropogenic, were evaluated for their ability to contribute to the burden of disease. The results of the analyses on four chemicals are presented here - cyanide in cassava, peanut allergen, aflatoxin, and dioxin. Systematic reviews of the literature were conducted to develop age- and sex-specific disease incidence and mortality estimates due to these chemicals. From these estimates, the numbers of cases, deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated. For these four chemicals combined, the total number of illnesses, deaths, and DALYs in 2010 is estimated to be 339,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 186,000-1,239,000); 20,000 (95% UI: 8,000-52,000); and 1,012,000 (95% UI: 562,000-2,822,000), respectively. Both cyanide in cassava and aflatoxin are associated with diseases with high case-fatality ratios. Virtually all human exposure to these four chemicals is through the food supply. Conclusion Chemicals in the food supply, as evidenced by the results for only four chemicals, can have a significant impact on the global burden of disease. The case-fatality rates for these four chemicals range from low (e.g., peanut allergen) to extremely high (aflatoxin and liver cancer). The effects associated with these four chemicals are neurologic (cyanide in cassava), cancer (aflatoxin), allergic response (peanut allergen), endocrine (dioxin), and reproductive (dioxin).

Background: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study assesses health losses from diseases, injuries, and risk factors using disability-adjusted life-years, which need a set of disability weights to quantify health levels associated with non-fatal outcomes. The objective of this study was to estimate disability weights for the GBD 2013 study. Methods: We analysed data from new web-based surveys of participants aged 18–65 years, completed in four European countries (Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and Sweden) between Sept 23, 2013, and Nov 11, 2013, combined with data previously collected in the GBD 2010 disability weights measurement study. Surveys used paired comparison questions for which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different health states and specified which person they deemed healthier than the other. These surveys covered 183 health states pertinent to GBD 2013; of these states, 30 were presented with descriptions revised from previous versions and 18 were new to GBD 2013. We analysed paired comparison data using probit regression analysis and rescaled results to disability weight units between 0 (no loss of health) and 1 (loss equivalent to death). We compared results with previous estimates, and an additional analysis examined sensitivity of paired comparison responses to duration of hypothetical health states. Findings: The total analysis sample consisted of 30 230 respondents from the GBD 2010 surveys and 30 660 from the new European surveys. For health states common to GBD 2010 and GBD 2013, results were highly correlated overall (Pearson's r 0·992 [95% uncertainty interval 0·989–0·994]). For health state descriptions that were revised for this study, resulting disability weights were substantially different for a subset of these weights, including those related to hearing loss (eg, complete hearing loss: GBD 2010 0·033 [0·020–0·052]; GBD 2013 0·215 [0·144–0·307]) and treated spinal cord lesions (below the neck: GBD 2010 0·047 [0·028–0·072]; GBD 2013 0·296 [0·198–0·414]; neck level: GBD 2010 0·369 [0·243–0·513]; GBD 2013 0·589 [0·415–0·748]). Survey responses to paired comparison questions were insensitive to whether the comparisons were framed in terms of temporary or chronic outcomes (Pearson's r 0·981 [0·973–0·987]). Interpretation: This study substantially expands the empirical basis for assessment of non-fatal outcomes in the GBD study. Findings from this study substantiate the notion that disability weights are sensitive to particular details in descriptions of health states, but robust to duration of outcomes. Funding: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This paper describes the methodological framework developed by FERG's Computational Task Force to transform epidemiological information into FBD burden estimates.The global and regional burden of 31 FBDs was quantified, along with limited estimates for 5 other FBDs, using Disability-Adjusted Life Years in a hazard- and incidence-based approach. To accomplish this task, the following workflow was defined: outline of disease models and collection of epidemiological data; design and completion of a database template; development of an imputation model; identification of disability weights; probabilistic burden assessment; and estimating the proportion of the disease burden by each hazard that is attributable to exposure by food (i.e., source attribution). All computations were performed in R and the different functions were compiled in the R package 'FERG'. Traceability and transparency were ensured by sharing results and methods in an interactive way with all FERG members throughout the process.We developed a comprehensive framework for estimating the global burden of FBDs, in which methodological simplicity and transparency were key elements. All the tools developed have been made available and can be translated into a user-friendly national toolkit for studying and monitoring food safety at the local level.

The World Health Organization (WHO) initiative to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases established the Foodborne Diseases Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) in 2007. In addition to global and regional estimates, the initiative sought to promote actions at a national level. This involved capacity building through national foodborne disease burden studies, and encouragement of the use of burden information in setting evidence-informed policies. To address these objectives a FERG Country Studies Task Force was established and has developed a suite of tools and resources to facilitate national burden of foodborne disease studies. This paper describes the process and lessons learned during the conduct of pilot country studies under the WHO FERG initiative.Pilot country studies were initiated in Albania, Japan and Thailand in 2011 and in Uganda in 2012. A brief description of each study is provided. The major scientific issue is a lack of data, particularly in relation to disease etiology, and attribution of disease burden to foodborne transmission. Situation analysis, knowledge translation, and risk communication to achieve evidence-informed policies require specialist expertise and resources.The FERG global and regional burden estimates will greatly enhance the ability of individual countries to fill data gaps and generate national estimates to support efforts to reduce the burden of foodborne disease.

In the Netherlands in 2003, an outbreak of avian influenza in poultry resulted in extensive culling, especially of layer hens. Concurrently, human campylobacteriosis cases decreased, particularly in the culling area. These observations raise the hypothesis that Campylobacter spp. dissemination from poultry farms or slaughterhouses might contribute to human campylobacteriosis.

BackgroundParasitic zoonoses (PZs) pose a significant but often neglected threat to public health, especially in developing countries. In order to obtain a better understanding of their health impact, summary measures of population health may be calculated, such as the Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY). However, the data required to calculate such measures are often not readily available for these diseases, which may lead to a vicious circle of under-recognition and under-funding.MethodologyWe examined the burden of PZs in Nepal through a systematic review of online and offline data sources. PZs were classified qualitatively according to endemicity, and where possible a quantitative burden assessment was conducted in terms of the annual number of incident cases, deaths and DALYs.Principal findingsBetween 2000 and 2012, the highest annual burden was imposed by neurocysticercosis and congenital toxoplasmosis (14,268 DALYs [95% Credibility Interval (CrI): 5450-27,694] and 9255 DALYs [95% CrI: 6135-13,292], respectively), followed by cystic echinococcosis (251 DALYs [95% CrI: 105-458]). Nepal is probably endemic for trichinellosis, toxocarosis, diphyllobothriosis, foodborne trematodosis, taeniosis, and zoonotic intestinal helminthic and protozoal infections, but insufficient data were available to quantify their health impact. Sporadic cases of alveolar echinococcosis, angiostrongylosis, capillariosis, dirofilariosis, gnathostomosis, sparganosis and cutaneous leishmaniosis may occur.Conclusions/significanceIn settings with limited surveillance capacity, it is possible to quantify the health impact of PZs and other neglected diseases, thereby interrupting the vicious circle of neglect. In Nepal, we found that several PZs are endemic and are imposing a significant burden to public health, higher than that of malaria, and comparable to that of HIV/AIDS. However, several critical data gaps remain. Enhanced surveillance for the endemic PZs identified in this study would enable additional burden estimates, and a more complete picture of the impact of these diseases.

In 2009, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control initiated the 'Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE)' project to generate evidence-based and comparable burden-of-disease estimates of infectious diseases in Europe. The burden-of-disease metric used was the Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY), composed of years of life lost due to premature death (YLL) and due to disability (YLD). To better represent infectious diseases, a pathogen-based approach was used linking incident cases to sequelae through outcome trees. Health outcomes were included if an evidence-based causal relationship between infection and outcome was established. Life expectancy and disability weights were taken from the Global Burden of Disease Study and alternative studies. Disease progression parameters were based on literature. Country-specific incidence was based on surveillance data corrected for underestimation. Non-typhoidal Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp. were used for illustration. Using the incidence- and pathogen-based DALY approach the total burden for Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp. was estimated at 730 DALYs and at 1,780 DALYs per year in the Netherlands (average of 2005-2007). Sequelae accounted for 56% and 82% of the total burden of Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp., respectively. The incidence- and pathogen-based DALY methodology allows in the case of infectious diseases a more comprehensive calculation of the disease burden as subsequent sequelae are fully taken into account. Not considering subsequent sequelae would strongly underestimate the burden of infectious diseases. Estimates can be used to support prioritisation and comparison of infectious diseases and other health conditions, both within a country and between countries.

In this study, 1208 Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli isolates from humans and 400 isolates from chicken, collected in two separate periods over 12 years in The Netherlands, were typed using multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Statistical evidence was found for a shift of ST frequencies in human isolates over time. The human MLST data were also compared to published data from other countries to determine geographical variation. Because only MLST typed data from chicken, taken from the same time point and spatial location, were available in addition to the human data, MLST datasets for other Campylobacter reservoirs from selected countries were used. The selection was based on the degree of similarity of the human isolates between countries. The main aim of this study was to better understand the consequences of using non-local or non-recent MLST data for attributing domestically acquired human Campylobacter infections to specific sources of origin when applying the asymmetric island model for source attribution. In addition, a power-analysis was done to find the minimum number of source isolates needed to perform source attribution using an asymmetric island model. This study showed that using source data from other countries can have a significant biasing effect on the attribution results so it is important to carefully select data if the available local data lack in quality and/or quantity. Methods aimed at reducing this bias were proposed.

BACKGROUND: Source identification in areas with outbreaks of airborne pathogens is often time-consuming and expensive. We developed a model to identify the most likely location of sources of airborne pathogens. METHODS: As a case study, we retrospectively analyzed three Q fever outbreaks in the Netherlands in 2009, each with suspected exposure from a single large dairy goat farm. Model input consisted only of case residential addresses, day of first clinical symptoms, and human population density data. We defined a spatial grid and fitted an exponentially declining function to the incidence-distance data of each grid point. For any grid point with a fit significant at the 95% confidence level, we calculated a measure of risk. For validation, we used results from abortion notifications, voluntary (2008) and mandatory (2009) bulk tank milk sampling at large (i.e. >50 goats and/or sheep) dairy farms, and non-systematic vaginal swab sampling at large and small dairy and non-dairy goat/sheep farms. In addition, we performed a two-source simulation study. RESULTS: Hotspots--areas most likely to contain the actual source--were identified at early outbreak stages, based on the earliest 2-10% of the case notifications. Distances between the hotspots and suspected goat farms varied from 300-1500 m. In regional likelihood rankings including all large dairy farms, the suspected goat farms consistently ranked first. The two-source simulation study showed that detection of sources is most clear if the distance between the sources is either relatively small or relatively large. CONCLUSIONS: Our model identifies the most likely location of sources in an airborne pathogen outbreak area, even at early stages. It can help to reduce the number of potential sources to be investigated by microbial testing and to allow rapid implementation of interventions to limit the number of human infections and to reduce the risk of source-to-source transmission.

Mirjam Kretzschmar and colleagues describe the BCoDE project, which uses a pathogen-based incidence approach to better estimate the infectious disease burden in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Campylobacteriosis contributes strongly to the disease burden of food-borne pathogens. Case-control studies are limited in attributing human infections to the different reservoirs because they can only trace back to the points of exposure, which may not point to the original reservoirs because of cross-contamination. Human Campylobacter infections can be attributed to specific reservoirs by estimating the extent of subtype sharing between strains from humans and reservoirs using multilocus sequence typing (MLST). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated risk factors for human campylobacteriosis caused by Campylobacter strains attributed to different reservoirs. Sequence types (STs) were determined for 696 C. jejuni and 41 C. coli strains from endemic human cases included in a case-control study. The asymmetric island model, a population genetics approach for modeling Campylobacter evolution and transmission, attributed these cases to four putative animal reservoirs (chicken, cattle, sheep, pig) and to the environment (water, sand, wild birds) considered as a proxy for other unidentified reservoirs. Most cases were attributed to chicken (66%) and cattle (21%), identified as the main reservoirs in The Netherlands. Consuming chicken was a risk factor for campylobacteriosis caused by chicken-associated STs, whereas consuming beef and pork were protective. Risk factors for campylobacteriosis caused by ruminant-associated STs were contact with animals, barbecuing in non-urban areas, consumption of tripe, and never/seldom chicken consumption. Consuming game and swimming in a domestic swimming pool during springtime were risk factors for campylobacteriosis caused by environment-associated STs. Infections with chicken- and ruminant-associated STs were only partially explained by food-borne transmission; direct contact and environmental pathways were also important. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This is the first case-control study in which risk factors for campylobacteriosis are investigated in relation to the attributed reservoirs based on MLST profiles. Combining epidemiological and source attribution data improved campylobacteriosis risk factor identification and characterization, generated hypotheses, and showed that genotype-based source attribution is epidemiologically sensible.

BACKGROUND: To support the development of early warning and surveillance systems of emerging zoonoses, we present a general method to prioritize pathogens using a quantitative, stochastic multi-criteria model, parameterized for the Netherlands. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A risk score was based on seven criteria, reflecting assessments of the epidemiology and impact of these pathogens on society. Criteria were weighed, based on the preferences of a panel of judges with a background in infectious disease control. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Pathogens with the highest risk for the Netherlands included pathogens in the livestock reservoir with a high actual human disease burden (e.g. Campylobacter spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Coxiella burnetii) or a low current but higher historic burden (e.g. Mycobacterium bovis), rare zoonotic pathogens in domestic animals with severe disease manifestations in humans (e.g. BSE prion, Capnocytophaga canimorsus) as well as arthropod-borne and wildlife associated pathogens which may pose a severe risk in future (e.g. Japanese encephalitis virus and West-Nile virus). These agents are key targets for development of early warning and surveillance.