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Data from Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus), harvested during 1973–2021 by aboriginal subsistence hunters, were used to estimate reproductive parameters: length at sexual maturity (LSM), age at sexual maturity (ASM), pregnancy rate (PR), and calving interval. Sexual maturity (N = 187 females) was determined from the presence/absence of corpora in the ovaries, or a fetus. Using sampling bias-corrected logistic regression, LSM was estimated at 13.5 m, 95% CI [13.0, 13.8]. There was a downward trend in LSM over time, statistically significant with one method but marginal with another. A growth model translated this estimate to an ASM estimate of 23.5 years, 95% CI [20.4, 26.7]. Pregnancy rate was determined from mature females (N = 125), and from a subset limited to certain autumn-caught whales (n = 37) to reduce bias. The PR was estimated at 0.46 globally, 95% CI [0.36, 0.55] and 0.38 for the autumn sample, 95% CI [0.20, 0.51]. Both estimated PRs are consistent with a 3-year calving interval, because the larger estimate includes two cohorts of pregnant whales harvested in spring, and bowhead whale gestation is longer than 12 months. These analyses represent the most conclusive empirical estimates of ASM, LSM, and PR for this bowhead whale stock from the largest available data sets to date.

Solifluction processes in the Arctic are highly complex, introducing uncertainties in estimating current and future soil carbon storage and fluxes, and assessment of hillslope and infrastructure stability. This study aims to enhance our understanding of triggers and drivers of soil movement of permafrost-affected hillslopes in the Arctic. To achieve this, we established an extensive soil deformation and temperature sensor network, covering 48 locations across multiple hillslopes within a 1 km2 watershed on the Seward Peninsula, AK. We report depth-resolved measurements down to 1.8 m depth for May to September 2022, a period conducive to soil movement due to deepening thaw layers and frequent rain events. Over this period, surface movements of up to 334 mm were recorded. In general, these movements occur close to the thawing front, and are initiated as thawing reaches depths of 0.4-0.75 m. The largest movements were observed at the top of the south-east facing slope, where soil temperatures are cold (mean annual soil temperatures averaging −1.13 °C) and slopes are steeper than 15°. Our analysis highlights three primary factors influencing movements: slope angle, soil thermal conditions, and thaw depth. The latter two significantly impact the generation of pore water pressures at the thaw-freeze interface. Specifically, soil thermal conditions govern the liquid water content, while thaw depth influences both the height of the water column and, consequently, the pressure at the thawing front. These factors affect soil properties, such as cohesion and internal friction angle, which are crucial determinants of slope stability. This underscores the significance of a precise understanding of subsurface thermal conditions, including spatial and temporal variability in soil temperature and thaw depth, when assessing and predicting slope instabilities. Based on our observations, we developed a factor of safety proxy that consistently falls below the triggering threshold for all probes exhibiting displacements exceeding 50 mm. This study offers novel insights into patterns and triggers of hillslope movements in the Arctic and provides a venue to evaluate their impact on soil redistribution.

This study quantifies the state of the art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multimodel dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001-20 for predictions of pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on 1 June, 1 July, 1 August, and 1 September. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multimodel median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least 3 months in advance. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The observed decline of Arctic sea ice extent has created an emerging need for predictions of sea ice on seasonal time scales. This study provides a comparison of September Arctic sea ice seasonal prediction skill across a diverse set of dynamical and statistical prediction models, quantifying the state of the art in the rapidly growing sea ice prediction research community. We find that both dynamical and statistical models can skillfully predict September Arctic sea ice 0-3 months in advance on pan-Arctic, regional, and local spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that there are bright prospects for skillful operational seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice and highlight a number of crucial prediction system design aspects to guide future improvements. KEYWORDS: Arctic; Sea ice; Statistical techniques; Climate prediction; General circulation models; Model evaluation/ performance, 1. Introduction The rapid decline of summer Arctic sea ice over the satellite era (Fig. 1) has led to increased socioeconomic activity in the region and an emerging need for [...]

IntroductionThe number of American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) elders is expected to double by 2060. Thus it is imperative to retain AI/AN participants in longitudinal research studies to identify novel risk factors and potential targets for intervention for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias in these communities.MethodsThe National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center houses uniformly collected longitudinal data from the network of National Institute on Aging (NIA)-funded Alzheimer's Disease Research Centers (ADRCs). We used logistic regression to quantify participant retention at 43 ADRCs, comparing self-identified AI/AN participants to non-Hispanic White (NHW) participants, adjusting for potential confounding factors including baseline diagnosis, age, sex, education, and smoking.ResultsThe odds of AI/AN participant retention at the first follow-up visit were significantly lower than those for NHW participants (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.599; 95%: 0.46-0.78; p

The Arctic has been identified by scientists as a relatively promising venue for controversial ‘solar geoengineering’ – technical schemes to reflect more sunlight to counteract global warming. Yet contemporary regional security dynamics and the relative (in)significance of climate concerns among the key Arctic states suggest a different conclusion. By systematically juxtaposing recently published schemes for Arctic geoengineering with Arctic security strategies published by the littoral Arctic states and China, we reveal and detail two conflicting security imaginaries. Geoengineering schemes scientifically securitise (and seek to maintain) the Arctic’s ‘great white shield’ to protect ‘global’ humanity against climate tipping points and invoke a past era of Arctic ‘exceptionality’ to suggest greater political feasibility for research interventions here. Meanwhile, state security imaginaries understand the contemporary Arctic as an increasingly contested region of considerable geopolitical peril and economic opportunity as temperatures rise. Alongside the entangled history of science with geopolitics in the region, this suggests that geoengineering schemes in the Arctic are unlikely to follow scientific visions, and unless co-opted into competitive, extractivist state security imaginaries, may prove entirely infeasible. Moreover, if the Arctic is the ‘best-case’ for geoengineering politics, this places a huge question mark over the feasibility of other, more global prospects.

The time it takes for an ecosystem to recover from a disturbance is a key to environmental management. Conventionally, recovery is defined as a return to the pre‐disturbance state, assuming ecosystem stationarity. However, this view does not account for the impact of external forces like climate change, imposing non‐stationarity and trends. Alternatively, the counterfactual approach views recovery as the state the ecosystem would have achieved if the disturbance had not occurred, accounting for external forces. Here, we present a simple method to estimate the counterfactual recovery time. By implementing our method to the greening of the Arctic region, we showed that counterfactual greening recovery is twice as long as conventional recovery over the region. We argue that the well‐documented greening of the region acts as an external force, leading to such a large difference. We advocate for embracing the counterfactual definition of recovery, as it aligns with realistic decision‐making processes. Plain Language Summary: The time required for an ecosystem to recover from a disturbance is a crucial factor in many areas, such as decision‐making. Traditionally, this recovery time has been considered as the period for a disturbed ecosystem to either bounce back to its pre‐disturbance state or reach a new stable state. However, the assumption of stability may not hold true in light of climate change and other external factors. These forces make ecosystems dynamic, potentially with upward or downward trends, rather than reaching a stable state. To account for these external forces, an alternative definition is presented: the time for an ecosystem to reach its potential state, as if the disturbance had not occurred, termed the "counterfactual recovery." In this study, we propose a simple method based on time series analyses to calculate the counterfactual recovery time. We showcase the difference between the two definitions by implementing our approach to the case of greening in the Arctic and boreal regions post‐disturbance. Our method is generalizable to any ecological system, and we envision its contribution to decision‐making processes, such as conservation efforts. Key Points: The conventional definition to recovery as return to pre‐disturbance state ignores the impact of external forces on the recovery processWe proposed a method to estimate the time to recover using counterfactual approach which considers the impact of external forcesImplementing our approach over the greening of the arctic region showed the large difference between the two approaches [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has accelerated the iodine cycle in the Arctic Ocean, amplifying its significance in the global iodine cycle. However, some intricacies of the iodine cycle in the Arctic marine environment remain unclear. In this study, we present concentrations of stable- and radio-iodine (127I and 129I) in total iodine, iodide (I–), and iodate (IO 3 –) in seawater from the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering Seas. Results show a wide range of 129I/127I ratios of total iodine (3.2 × 10–12–9.3 × 10–9), indicating that the total 129I/127I ratio is a valuable fingerprint for identifying water masses and comprehending mixing processes. Iodine loss in surface seawater was quantitatively assessed using 129I, revealing that Arctic rivers substantially contribute to the emission of iodine into the atmosphere from the Arctic and subarctic seas. Our redox simulation in the Arctic intermediate layer shows the concentrations and 129I/127I ratios of I– and IO 3 – during its migration and provides the first evidence of an IO 3 – reduction process masked by the I– oxidation in the intermediate Arctic Ocean. Oxidation and reduction processes in the intermediate Arctic Ocean were characterized by extremely slow rates, at 0.95–2.41 and 0.26 ± 0.13 nM/year, respectively. Our findings demonstrate the effectiveness of anthropogenic 129I in tracking iodine cycling in the Arctic marine environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have shown that low‐level mixed‐phase clouds that form during idealized moist intrusions into the Arctic can exist in either a stable (stratus) or a convective (stratocumulus) state. Here, we examine the conditions that promote a transition from the stable to the convective state through idealized simulations using a three‐dimensional large‐eddy simulation model coupled with a one‐dimensional multilayer sea ice model. We find that the vertical distribution of the initial dew point temperature (Td) profile fundamentally influences whether a transition between the two states occurs or not. If the initial moisture content of the advected airmass decreases rapidly with height, then a turbulent transition is likely to occur and a stratocumulus cloud can form. However, the availability and properties of aerosols as well as the cloud ice content can delay or even prevent stratocumulus formation, regardless if the conditions in terms of the initial Td profile are favorable. A low cloud ice water content promotes a stably stratified cloud layer and delays the transition. Furthermore, if no cloud condensation nuclei are available at the base of the cloud when a cloud‐layer instability forms, then there is no new droplet formation, the buoyancy remains low and the cloud remains as a stratus. Our results suggest that the low‐level mixed‐phase cloud evolution and the thermodynamic transition of an airmass during a moist intrusion into the Arctic are closely linked to the aerosol processing by the cloud, that is, a chemical transformation, and that the two processes should be considered simultaneously. Plain Language Summary: Clouds strongly influence the energy budget of the central Arctic and tend to warm the surface, in particular during winter. We have used a detailed numerical model to study low‐altitude clouds that form when warm, moist air is transported over the Arctic pack ice. The clouds can exist as two types, either as stratus (thin clouds with little turbulent motion) or stratocumulus (thicker clouds with substantial turbulence). The thicker stratocumulus clouds warm the surface more than the thinner stratus clouds and it is therefore important to understand why some clouds transition into stratocumulus while others stay as stratus. We find that the vertical profile of atmospheric moisture plays a key role for the transition; if the air is moist at the surface but relatively dry aloft, then the transition occurs faster than if the air is relatively moist throughout the atmospheric column. Aerosol particles also play an important role for the transition; in the clean central Arctic, a lack of aerosol particles can prevent cloud droplet formation and thereby also the formation of stratocumulus clouds. Aerosol particles can also influence the formation of ice crystals in the cloud, which we show can affect if and when a stratocumulus cloud forms. Key Points: Mixed‐phase clouds that form during Arctic moist intrusions can transform from a stable (stratus) to a convective state (stratocumulus)The initial moisture profile fundamentally influences whether the transition between the two states occurs or notThe presence or absence of aerosols acting as cloud condensation or ice nuclei can delay or even prevent the transition [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic cyclones are key drivers of sea ice and ocean variability. During the 2019–2020 Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, joint observations of the coupled air‐ice‐ocean system were collected at multiple spatial scales. Here, we present observations of a strong mid‐winter cyclone that impacted the MOSAiC site as it drifted in the central Arctic pack ice. The sea ice dynamical response showed spatial structure at the scale of the evolving and translating cyclonic wind field. Internal ice stress and ocean stress play significant roles, resulting in timing offsets between the atmospheric forcing and the ice response and post‐cyclone inertial ringing in the ice and ocean. Ice motion in response to the wind field then forces the upper ocean currents through frictional drag. The strongest impacts to the sea ice and ocean from the passing cyclone occur as a result of the surface impacts of a strong atmospheric low‐level jet (LLJ) behind the trailing cold front and changing wind directions between the warm‐sector LLJ and post cold‐frontal LLJ. Impacts of the cyclone are prolonged through the coupled ice‐ocean inertial response. Local impacts of the approximately 120 km wide LLJ occur over a 12 hr period or less and at scales of a kilometer to a few tens of kilometers, meaning that these impacts occur at combined smaller spatial scales and faster time scales than most satellite observations and coupled Earth system models can resolve. Plain Language Summary: Arctic winter cyclones are an important part of the Arctic climate system. Yet, due to sparse observations, processes of the coupled sea ice‐ocean response to cyclones are not fully understood. During the 2019–2020 Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, observations of the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean were collected at a range of spatial scales. Here, we describe the atmospheric structure and coupled ice‐ocean response to a strong winter cyclone using data from surface weather stations, weather balloons, radar, and a weather model. We then describe the sea ice motion using a large set of global positioning system buoys and ice radar images. Finally, we examine the upper ocean currents and structure using ocean buoy data. The most important part of the storm structure for the sea ice is the development of an atmospheric low‐level jet (LLJ), a narrow region of fast‐moving air that eventually circles around the storm. The sudden change in ice drift speed at the time that the LLJ passes overhead enhances motion of the ice and ocean. Periodic currents in the ocean initiated by the sudden wind change of the LLJ continue for days following the passage of the storm, prolonging its effects. Key Points: A strong cyclone crossed the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of the Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) in midwinter 2020Detailed, multi‐platform observations enable characterization of coupled air‐ice‐ocean interactions during the passage of the cycloneThe development of a low‐level atmospheric jet is a key factor in the spatially and temporally varying sea ice‐ocean response to the storm [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to global rises in temperature, recent studies predict marine species shifting toward higher latitudes. We investigated the impact of interacting abiotic drivers on the distribution potential of the temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea. The ecosystem engineering species is widespread along European coasts but has not yet been observed in the High Arctic, although it can survive several months of low temperatures and darkness. To investigate its ability to extend northward in future, we conducted a long‐term multifactorial experiment with sporophytes from Porsangerfjorden, Norway—close to the species' documented northernmost distribution margin. The samples were exposed to three different photoperiods (PolarDay, LongDay, and PolarNight) at 0°C, 5°C, and 10°C for 3 months. Optimum quantum yield of photosynthesis (Fv/Fm), dry weight, pigments, phlorotannins, and storage carbohydrates were monitored. Both physiological and biochemical parameters revealed that L. hyperborea was strongly influenced by the different photoperiods and their interaction with temperature, while temperature alone exerted only minor effects. The Fv/Fm data were integrated into a species distribution model to project a possible northward expansion of L. hyperborea. The combination of extended day lengths and low temperatures appeared to be the limiting reason for northward spread of L. hyperborea until recently. However, with water temperatures reaching 10°C in summer, this kelp will be able to thrive also in the High Arctic. Moreover, no evidence of stress to Arctic winter warming was observed. Consequently, L. hyperborea has a high potential for spreading northward with further warming which may significantly affect the structure and function of Arctic ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine invertebrate habitats are experiencing warming, and oceanic carbon dioxide levels are on the rise. These changes result in shifts in species distributions. Monitoring and understanding these shifts provides vital information because each species plays a unique ecological role, and the human utilization of marine species is intrinsically linked to their geographic locations. Here, we examine distribution shifts of marine invertebrates in the Barents Sea since pre-1900. Using data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, we analyzed species occurrences across warm, cold and mixed temperature zones, distinguishing between benthic and pelagic taxa. Our findings indicate community shifts in each of five separated time periods, with the most pronounced shifts occurring after 1980 in the cold and mixed zones, and earlier in the warm zone. The significant biogeographical changes at the community scale occurred both in benthic and pelagic realms, yet with differing trajectories in the period past 2000, and largely coincided with increased Atlantic Water inflow and reduced ice cover. Several invertebrate taxa exhibited a northward movement, falling into two categories: species migrating into the Barents Sea from the Norwegian mainland shelf, and those relocating from the southern Barents Sea to areas with mixed and colder temperatures. Some of these species may serve as indicator species for monitoring ecosystem and community change. The study highlights the importance of long-term datasets in quantifying community distribution shifts and understanding their ecological impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three new fossil species of walnuts, Juglans eoarctica sp. nov., J. nathorstii sp. nov., and J. cordata sp. nov., are described on the basis of nuts recovered from the middle Eocene fossil forests of Axel Heiberg Island in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. These represent the most northerly occurrence of Juglans and are among the oldest records of Juglans to date. The Axel Heiberg Island walnuts conform to the sections Rhysocaryon and Cardiocaryon and, together with the contemporaneous midlatitude fossil species J. clarnensis Scott, imply the establishment of two distinct Juglans lineages prior to the middle Eocene. Climatic cooling, leading ultimately to Pleistocene glaciation, has transformed high-latitude vegetation and resulted in the American/Eurasian disjunct distribution found in many north temperate families, of which Juglans is typical. With three coexisting species in the Axel Heiberg Island fossil forests, it is clear that Juglans was an important component of this ancient polar landscape and played a significant role in the evolution of northern temperate forest ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The polar regions are increasingly at the center of attention as the hot spots of climate crisis as well as tourism development. The recent IPCC reports highlight several climate change risks for the rather carbon-intensive and weather-based/dependent polar tourism industry in the Arctic and the Antarctic. This study presents the scholarly state-of-knowledge on tourism and climate change in the polar regions with a literature survey extending beyond the Anglophone publications. As a supporting tool, we provide a live web GIS application based on the geographical coverages of the publications and filterable by various spatial, thematic and bibliographical attributes. The final list of 137 publications indicates that, regionally, the Arctic has been covered more than the Antarctic, whilst an uneven distribution within the Arctic also exists. In terms of the climate change risks themes, climate risk research, i.e. impact and adaptation studies, strongly outnumbers the carbon risk studies especially in the Arctic context, and, despite a balance between the two main risk themes, climate risk research in the Antarctic proves itself outdated. Accordingly, the review ends with a research agenda based on these spatial and thematic gaps and their detailed breakdowns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pymvashor Creek is the northernmost in continental Europe hydrothermal system (Bolshezemelskaya tundra, Northeast of European Russian Arctic). Our study aimed to investigate the taxonomic composition and abundance of chironomids and to evaluate the relationship of these parameters with the water temperature along the thermal gradient in the arctic Pymvashor Creek thermal system. The greatest taxonomic richness and abundance of chironomids were found in tepid waters (25 chironomid taxa), where Orthocladiinae dominated chironomid communities. Eurybiotic Chironomus Meigen, 1803 species dominated thermal springs. Cold stenotherm Pseudodiamesa (Pseudodiamesa) nivosa (Goetghebuer, 1928) and Eukiefferiella claripennis (Lundbeck, 1898) prevailed in cold karst springs. The chironomid faunas of thermal, tepid, and cold parts of the Pymvashor Creek hydrothermal water system differ statistically significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold‐water lakes situated in high latitudes and altitudes have pivotal socio‐ecological importance both globally and locally. However, they are increasingly threatened by multiple anthropogenic stressors, such as climate change, hydropower and invasive species. The development of efficient management strategies is therefore urgently needed and requires a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing the biodiversity and ecological processes of these ecosystems. We provide a holistic knowledge base for informed future research and management by addressing the interplay between local and global environmental drivers of food webs in Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus, Salmonidae) and brown trout (Salmo trutta, Salmonidae) dominated cold‐water lakes in Fennoscandia. The trophic niche and population dynamics of these generalist top consumers provide extensive insights into the effects of natural and anthropogenic drivers on food webs in intensively studied Fennoscandian cold‐water lakes, covering marked biogeographical gradients in abiotic and biotic conditions. Drawing on a synthesis of existing literature, our focus is on three pivotal drivers: (1) lake location and connectivity, (2) lake area and morphometry and (3) fish community composition. These drivers significantly influence the complexity and the origin and flow of energy in lake food webs, and ultimately the size structure of the charr and trout populations. Furthermore, we highlight ongoing environmental changes in Fennoscandian cold‐water lakes caused by hydropower and invasive species. Finally, we identify crucial knowledge gaps and propose management actions for improving the future state of Fennoscandian cold‐water lake ecosystems and their charr and trout populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 ruptured Europe's security constellation, leading to historically neutral Finland and Sweden to seek NATO memberships. While there is literature on how NATO influences country's security apparatus, the impact of NATO on smaller states' securitization capacity remains unclear. We undertake 1) a discourse analysis of Norway and Finland's three respective Arctic strategies, 2) a discourse analysis of two online Arctic newspapers 'High North News' and 'The Barents Observer', and 3) an analysis of the allocation of Finnish and Norwegian military spending from 2014-2022. We explore both countries as cases where one is a historic member of NATO and the other is not. Despite this, both states share similar structural security risks such as Russia's geographic proximity. We periodize securitizing dynamics related to the Arctic, matching it to changes in the Finnish and Norwegian military sectors. Given small states lack relative material capabilities, we argue there is a systematic deadlock in transforming securitizing moves into material action. However, as a NATO state, Norway exhibits a significantly higher level of participation in military maneuvers and additional securitizing behavior compared to Finland. By contrast, Finland relies more heavily on intense securitizing rhetoric without accompanying material actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada has high rates of sexually transmitted infections (STI) that elevate HIV acquisition risks. We conducted a mixed-methods study to explore the potential of land-based peer leader retreats (PLR) in building HIV prevention enabling environments among Northern and Indigenous youth in the NWT. PLRs are grounded in Indigenous principles and ways of knowing, acknowledging the land as a physical, spiritual, emotional, and intellectual being with the potential to facilitate (re)connection to culture, community, and self. We conducted one-week PLRs between 2016 and 2021 with adolescents aged 13–17 in the NWT. PLRs addressed HIV/STIs, safer sex, and gender equity. We conducted post-retreat focus groups (FGs) and pre/post-retreat surveys with youth participants (n = 353), and post-retreat FGs with PLR facilitators (n = 252). We applied thematic analysis to FGs and assessed pre/post-retreat changes in HIV/STI knowledge and safer sex efficacy (SSE) using paired sample t-tests. We assessed factors associated with post-test SSE and HIV/STI knowledge using multivariable linear regression. Youth participants (n = 353; mean age: 14.5, standard deviation [SD]: 1.3) were mostly Indigenous (71%) and women (66%). Participant narratives revealed PLRs enhanced technical communication (e.g., correct condom use). There were significant post-retreat HIV/STI knowledge increases; change score increases were lower for Indigenous participants. Qualitative narratives described how PLRs fostered transformative communication (e.g., sexual consent). There were significant post-retreat increases in SSE, and these were lower among men and sexually diverse (vs. heterosexual) participants. Land-based PLRs offer the potential to build technical and transformative communication to facilitate HIV prevention with youth in Canada's North. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beluga whales play a critical role in the subsistence economies and cultural heritage of Indigenous communities across the Arctic, yet the effects of Indigenous hunting on beluga whales remain unknown. Here, we integrate paleogenomics, genetic simulations, and stable δ13C and δ15N isotope analysis to investigate 700 y of beluga subsistence hunting in the Mackenzie Delta area of northwestern Canada. Genetic identification of the zooarchaeological remains, which is based on radiocarbon dating, span three time periods (1290 to 1440 CE; 1450 to 1650 CE; 1800 to 1870 CE), indicates shifts across time in the sex ratio of the harvested belugas. The equal number of females and males harvested in 1450 to 1650 CE versus more males harvested in the two other time periods may reflect changes in hunting practices or temporal shifts in beluga availability. We find temporal shifts and sex-based differences in δ13C of the harvested belugas across time, suggesting historical adaptability in the foraging ecology of the whales. We uncovered distinct mitochondrial diversity unique to the Mackenzie Delta belugas, but found no changes in nuclear genomic diversity nor any substructuring across time. Our findings indicate the genomic stability and continuity of the Mackenzie Delta beluga population across the 700 y surveyed, indicating the impact of Inuvialuit subsistence harvests on the genetic diversity of contemporary beluga individuals has been negligible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The MET Norway Ice Service (NIS) celebrated its fiftieth year as a formal operational sea ice information provider in 2020. Prior to the 1970's, support to navigation had started off with ad-hoc observations from coastal stations on Svalbard in the 1930's, before developing as a research programme in the 1960's. Activity in the region has steadily increased, and now the NIS also supports a large number of research, tourist, and resource exploration vessels, in addition to the ice chart archive being a resource for climate change research. The Ice Service has always been at the forefront in the use of satellite Earth Observation technologies, beginning with the routine use of optical thermal infrared imagery from NASA TIROS and becoming a large user of Canadian RADARSAT-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), and then European Copernicus Sentinel-1, in the 2000's and 2010's. Initially ice charts were a weekly compilation of ice information using cloud-free satellite coverage, aerial reconnaissance, and in situ observations, drawn on paper at the offices of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway) in Oslo. From 1997 production moved to the Tromsø office using computer-based Geographical Information System (GIS) software and the NIS developed the ice charting system Bifrost. This allowed the frequency of production to be increased to every weekday, with a greater focus on detailed sea ice concentrations along the ice edge and coastal zones in Eastern Greenland and in the Svalbard fjords. From 2010, the NIS has also provided a weekly austral summer ice chart for the Weddell Sea and Antarctic Peninsula. To further develop its capabilities, NIS engages in a number of national and international research projects and led the EU Horizon 2020 project, Key Environmental monitoring for Polar Latitudes and European Readiness (KEPLER). This paper summarises the overall mandate and history of the NIS, and its current activities including the current state of routine production of operational ice charts at the NIS for maritime safety in both the Arctic and Antarctic, and future development plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic and boreal regions are experiencing a rapid increase in temperature, resulting in a changing cryosphere, increasing human activity, and potentially increasing high-latitude methane emissions. Satellite observations from Sentinel-5P TROPOMI provide an unprecedented coverage of a column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of methane (XCH4) in the Arctic, compared to previous missions or in situ measurements. The purpose of this study is to support and enhance the data used for high-latitude research through presenting a systematic evaluation of TROPOMI methane products derived from two different processing algorithms: the operational product (OPER) and the scientific product (WFMD), including the comparison of recent version changes of the products (OPER, OPER rpro, WFMD v1.2, and WFMD v1.8). One finding is that OPER rpro yields lower XCH4 than WFMD v1.8, the difference increasing towards the highest latitudes. TROPOMI product differences were evaluated with respect to ground-based high-latitude references, including four Fourier Transform Spectrometer in the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and five EM27/SUN instruments in the Collaborative Carbon Column Observing Network (COCCON). The mean TROPOMI–TCCON GGG2020 daily median XCH4 difference was site-dependent and varied for OPER rpro from −0.47 ppb to 22.4 ppb, and for WFMD v1.8 from 1.2 ppb to 19.4 ppb with standard deviations between 13.0 and 20.4 ppb and 12.5–15.0 ppb, respectively. The TROPOMI–COCCON daily median XCH4 difference varied from −26.5 ppb to 5.6 ppb for OPER rpro, with a standard deviation of 14.0–28.7 ppb, and from −5.0 ppb to 17.2 ppb for WFMD v1.8, with a standard deviation of 11.5–13.0 ppb. Although the accuracy and precision of both TROPOMI products are, on average, good compared to the TCCON and COCCON, a persistent seasonal bias in TROPOMI XCH4 (high values in spring; low values in autumn) is found for OPER rpro and is reflected in the higher standard deviation values. A systematic decrease of about 7 ppb was found between TCCON GGG2014 and GGG2020 product update highlighting the importance of also ensuring the reliability of ground-based retrievals. Comparisons to atmospheric profile measurements with AirCore carried out in Sodankylä, Northern Finland, resulted in XCH4 differences comparable to or smaller than those from ground-based remote sensing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the mechanisms responsible for the origin, evolution, and failure of pingos with explosive gas emissions and the formation of craters in the Arctic permafrost requires comprehensive studies in the context of fluid dynamic processes. Properly choosing modeling methods for the joint interpretation of geophysical results and analytical data on core samples from suitable sites are prerequisites for predicting pending pingo failure hazards. We suggest an optimal theoretically grounded workflow for such studies, in a site where pingo collapse induced gas blowout and crater formation in the Yamal Peninsula. The site was chosen with reference to the classification of periglacial landforms and their relation to the local deformation pattern, according to deciphered satellite images and reconnaissance geophysical surveys. The deciphered satellite images and combined geophysical data from the site reveal a pattern of periglacial landforms matching the structural framework with uplifted stable permafrost blocks (polygons) bounded by eroded fractured zones (lineaments). Greater percentages of landforms associated with permafrost degradation fall within the lineaments. Resistivity anomalies beneath pingo-like mounds presumably trace deeply rooted fluid conduits. This distribution can be explained in terms of fluid dynamics. N–E and W–E faults, and especially their junctions with N–W structures, are potentially the most widely open conduits for gas and water which migrate into shallow sediments in the modern stress field of N–S (or rather NEN) extension and cause a warming effect on permafrost. The results obtained with a new workflow and joint interpretation of remote sensing, geophysical, and analytical data from the site of explosive gas emission in the Yamal Peninsula confirm the advantages of the suggested approach and its applicability for future integrated fluid dynamics research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar lows (PLs) are intense mesoscale cyclones that form over polar oceans during colder months. Characterized by high wind speeds and heavy precipitation, they profoundly impact coastal communities, shipping, and offshore activities. Amid the substantial environmental changes in polar regions due to global warming, PLs are expected to undergo noteworthy transformations. In this study, we investigate the response of PL development in the Barents Sea to climate warming based on two representative PLs. Sensitivity experiments were conducted including the PLs in the present climate and the PLs in a pseudo–global warming scenario projected by the late twenty-first century for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP 3-7.0 scenarios from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In both warming climate scenarios, there is an anticipated decrease in PL intensity, in terms of the maximum surface wind speed and minimum sea level pressure. Despite the foreseen increase in latent heat release in the future climate, contributing to the enhancement of PL intensity, other primary factors such as decreased baroclinic instability, heightened atmospheric static stability, and reduced overall surface heat fluxes play pivotal roles in the overall decrease in PL intensity in the Barents Sea under warming conditions. The augmentation of surface latent heat flux, however, results in increased precipitation associated with PLs by enhancing the latent heat release. Furthermore, the regional steering flow shifts in the warming climate can influence the trajectory of PLs during their development. Significance Statement: Global warming is anticipated to impact cyclone systems worldwide. Polar lows (PLs), intense mesocyclones in polar regions with potential socioeconomic and human life implications, pose uncertainties regarding intensity changes in a warming climate. In this study, we aimed to better understand how PLs over the Barents Sea will respond to the environmental changes in future climate conditions [Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP 3-7.0] by the end of the twenty-first century. Our results find that the intensity of PLs is expected to decrease in the future while there is an expected increase in precipitation associated with PLs in the warming climate. These findings aim to contribute valuable insights for disaster management strategies in the face of evolving climate scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exhibit large biases in Arctic sea ice climatology that seem related to biases in seasonal atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Using historical runs of 34 CMIP6 models from 1979 to 2014, we investigate the links between the climatological sea ice concentration (SIC) biases in September and atmospheric and oceanic model climatologies. The main intermodel spread of September SIC is well described by two leading EOFs, which together explain ∼65% of its variance. The first EOF represents an underestimation or overestimation of SIC in the whole Arctic, while the second EOF describes opposite SIC biases in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors. Regression analysis indicates that the two SIC modes are closely related to departures from the multimodel mean of Arctic surface heat fluxes during summer, primarily shortwave and longwave radiation, with incoming Atlantic Water playing a role in the Atlantic sector. Local and global links with summer cloud cover, low-level humidity, upper or lower troposphere temperature/circulation, and oceanic variables are also found. As illustrated for three climate models, the local relationships with the SIC biases are mostly similar in the Arctic across the models but show varying degrees of Atlantic inflow influence. On a global scale, a strong influence of the summer atmospheric circulation on September SIC is suggested for one of the three models, while the atmospheric influence is primarily via thermodynamics in the other two. Clear links to the North Atlantic oceanic circulation are seen in one of the models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice formation remains one of the most poorly represented microphysical processes in climate models. While primary ice production (PIP) parameterizations are known to have a large influence on the modeled cloud properties, the representation of secondary ice production (SIP) is incomplete and its corresponding impact is therefore largely unquantified. Furthermore, ice aggregation is another important process for the total cloud ice budget, which also remains largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine the impact of PIP, SIP, and ice aggregation on Arctic clouds, using the Norwegian Earth System Model, version 2 (NorESM2). Simulations with both prognostic and diagnostic PIP show that heterogeneous freezing alone cannot reproduce the observed cloud ice content. The implementation of missing SIP mechanisms (collisional breakup, drop shattering, and sublimation breakup) in NorESM2 improves the modeled ice properties, while improvements in liquid content occur only in simulations with prognostic PIP. However, results are sensitive to the description of collisional breakup. This mechanism, which dominates SIP in the examined conditions, is very sensitive to the treatment of the sublimation correction factor, a poorly constrained parameter that is included in the utilized parameterization. Finally, variations in ice aggregation treatment can also significantly impact cloud properties, mainly through their impact on collisional breakup efficiency. Overall, enhancement in ice production through the addition of SIP mechanisms and the reduction in ice aggregation (in line with radar observations of shallow Arctic clouds) result in enhanced cloud cover and decreased TOA radiation biases, compared to satellite measurements, especially during the cold months. Significance Statement: Arctic clouds remain a large source of uncertainty in projections of the future climate due to the poor representation of the microphysical processes that govern their life cycle. Ice formation is among the least understood processes. While it is widely recognized that better constraints on primary ice production (PIP) are needed to improve existing parameterizations, we show that secondary ice production (SIP) and ice aggregation can have also a significant impact on ice number concentrations. Constraining ice formation through the addition of missing SIP mechanisms and reducing ice aggregation can improve the representation of the cloud macrophysical properties and enhance total cloud cover in the Arctic region, which in turn contributes to decreased TOA radiation biases in the cold months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly but with superimposed variability on multiple time scales that introduces large uncertainties in projections of future sea ice loss. To better understand what drives at least part of this variability, we show how a simple linear model can link dominant modes of climate variability to low-frequency regional Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies. Focusing on September, we find skillful projections from global climate models (GCMs) from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) at lead times of 4–20 years, with up to 60% of observed low-frequency variability explained at a 5-yr lead time. The dominant driver of low-frequency SIC variability is the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) which is positively correlated with SIC anomalies in all regions up to a lead time of 15 years but with large uncertainty between GCMs and internal variability realization. The Niño-3.4 index and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation have better agreement between GCMs of being positively and negatively related, respectively, with low-frequency SIC anomalies for at least 10-yr lead times. The large variations between GCMs and between members within large ensembles indicate the diverse simulation of teleconnections between the tropics and Arctic sea ice and the dependence on the initial climate state. Further, the influence of the Niño-3.4 index was found to be sensitive to the background climate. Our results suggest that, based on the 2022 phases of dominant climate variability modes, enhanced loss of sea ice area across the Arctic is likely during the next decade. Significance Statement: The purpose of this study is to better understand the drivers of low-frequency variability of Arctic sea ice. Teasing out the complicated relationships within the climate system takes a large number of examples. Here, we use 42 of the latest generation of global climate models to construct a simple linear model based on dominant named climate features to predict regional low-frequency sea ice anomalies at a lead time of 2–20 years. In 2022, these modes of variability happen to be in the phases most conducive to low Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies. Given the context of the longer-term trend of sea ice loss due to global warming, our results suggest accelerated Arctic sea ice loss in the next decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of leads in Arctic sea ice on clouds is a potentially important climate feedback. We use observations of clouds and leads from the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) to study the effects of leads on clouds. Both leads and clouds are strongly forced by synoptic weather conditions, with more clouds over both leads and sea ice at lower sea level pressure. Contrary to previous studies, we find that the overall lead effect on low-level cloud cover is −0.02, a weak cloud dissipating effect in cold months, after the synoptic forcing influence is removed. This is due to compensating contributions from the cloud dissipating effect by newly frozen leads under high pressure systems and the cloud enhancing effect by newly open leads under low pressure system. The lack of proper representation of lead effect on clouds in current climate models and reanalyses may impact their performance in winter months, such as in sea ice growth and Arctic cyclone development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities located in the Arctic often have extreme geographic and environmental contexts and unique sociopolitical and economic trajectories that, when combined with amplified effects of climate change in the region, impact future sustainable development. Well-recognized and standardized sustainable development indicator (SDI) frameworks such as ISO 37120 or UN-Habitat City Prosperity Index are often used to compare data across cities globally using comprehensive sets of indicators. While such indexes help characterize progress toward development and guide short- and long-term decision-making, they often lack relevance to specific contexts or characterize future visions of urban growth. To evaluate the extent of these deficiencies and to provide a comparative analysis of approaches to sustainable urban growth in the Arctic, this paper analyzes city planning documents for five northern cities - Anchorage (USA), Utqiagvik (USA), Reyjavik (ISL), Iqaluit, (CAN), Whitehorse, (CAN) - for goals, targets, and indicators and compare these to thematic areas and indicators defined by ISO 37120:2018 Sustainable Cities and Communities. The results confirm that although international SDI frameworks may be useful for comparative analysis of cities across diverse regions, they exclude important local factors that influence goal-oriented urban sustainability planning strategies employed in the Arctic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic region's unfavorable living conditions adversely affect the spread of infectious diseases, including COVID-19, This, in turn, can also lead to increased morbidity and mortality rates in the area due to a number of factors such as climate, environment, and high prevalence rate of pre-existing health issues like diabetes, obesity, and respiratory infections. These circumstances adversely affect maintaining the level of working capability. The aim of this paper is to investigate the ratio of immunocompetent cells involved in the adaptive post-COVID-19 immune response. The research includes an immunological assessment of 29 women aged 20-40 years residing in Arkhangelsk, Russia, six months after recovering from COVID-19. The count of leukocytes in the peripheral blood and their differ ential were evaluated using standard methods to assess the immunological status. To delve deeper into the immunological landscape, phenotypes of lymphocytes (CD5+, CD8+, CD10+, and CD95+) were evaluated using an indirect immunoperoxidase reaction with monoclonal antibodies on dried drop lymphocyte preparations. After incubating blood with latex molecules, the activity and quantity of phagocytes were assessed using a light microscope. The neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio was found to be inverted in the female subjects under investigation. The high concentration of cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CD8+) and lymphocytes with apoptotic receptors (CD95+) suggests a potential correlation with a concurrent reduction in the expression of the total T-cell marker (CD5+) across all cases. This association was further linked to a decrease in lymphoproliferative activity and a relative decline in phagocytic activity. These findings led us to posit that the total recovery time after COVID-19 might extend beyond six months, indicative of a prolonged impact on the body's protective capacity. Our observations prompt the hypothesis that cellular immunity plays a crucial role in determining the severity of COVID-19 infection. Specifically, individuals with initially robust phagocytic activity may be predisposed to experiencing a milder form of the infection. However, this assumption warrants further investigation and clarification in individuals with moderate and severe disease progression [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global warming, the accelerated degradation of circum-Arctic permafrost is releasing a significant amount of carbon. InSAR can indirectly reflect the degradation of permafrost by monitoring its deformation. This study selected three typical permafrost regions in North America: Alaskan North Slope, Northern Great Bear Lake, and Southern Angikuni Lake. These regions encompass a range of permafrost landscapes, from tundra to needleleaf forests and lichen-moss, and we used Sentinel-1 SAR data from 2018 to 2021 to determine their deformation. In the InSAR process, due to the prolonged snow cover in the circum-Arctic permafrost, we used only SAR data collected during the summer and applied a two-stage interferogram selection strategy to mitigate the resulting temporal decorrelation. The Alaskan North Slope showed pronounced subsidence along the coastal alluvial plains and uplift in areas with drained thermokarst lake basins. Northern Great Bear Lake, which was impacted by wildfires, exhibited accelerated subsidence rates, revealing the profound and lasting impact of wildfires on permafrost degradation. Southern Angikuni Lake's lichen and moss terrains displayed mild subsidence. Our InSAR results indicate that more than one-third of the permafrost in the North American study area is degrading and that permafrost in diverse landscapes has different deformation patterns. When monitoring the degradation of large-scale permafrost, it is crucial to consider the unique characteristics of each landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Food insecurity is a social determinant of health linked with elevated HIV exposure. Safer sex efficacy (SSE), the ability to navigate sexual decision-making and condom use, is an important marker of sexual wellbeing. Pathways from food insecurity to SSE are understudied, particularly among adolescents in Arctic regions who are at the nexus of food insecurity and sexual health disparities. We examined pathways from food insecurity to SSE among adolescents in the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada. Methods: We implemented cross-sectional surveys with adolescents aged 13–18 recruited through venue-based sampling in 17 NWT communities. We conducted multivariable logistic regression to assess socio-demographic factors associated with food insecurity. We then conducted structural equation modeling (SEM) using maximum likelihood estimation to assess direct effects of food insecurity on SSE and indirect effects via resilience, depression, and relationship power inequity. We assessed both condom use SSE (e.g., confidence in using condoms) and situational SSE (e.g., SSE under partner pressure). Results: Most participants (n = 410) identified as Indigenous (79%) and 45% reported experiencing food insecurity. In SEM, we did not find a significant direct effect from food insecurity to SSE; however, we found indirect effects from food insecurity to condom use SSE through resilience and depression and from food insecurity to situational SSE through resilience. Conclusions: Findings call for structural interventions to address food insecurity, alongside resilience-focused strategies that address the intersection of sexual and mental health. Sexual health strategies focused on individual behavior change are insufficient to address larger contexts of poverty among Northern youth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensity evolution of Arctic cyclones (ACs) is examined via cyclone parameter space and composite analyses based on approximately 18 000 AC tracks during 1979–2021. Cyclone parameter spaces are defined by various parameters representing the cyclone structure and physical processes relevant to cyclone development. It is shown that intensifying ACs are associated with diabatic heating and characterized by a cold core in both the lower and upper troposphere, as well as a thermally asymmetric and vertically tilted structure. In contrast, the decay phase is associated with diabatic cooling and characterized by a vertically aligned cyclone with reduced horizontal asymmetry. The cyclone parameter space analysis also indicates a warm core in the lower troposphere for a subset of ACs, which may reflect a frontal occlusion. The transition from AC intensification to decay, on average, is marked by a sharp decrease in both upward motion and diabatic heating, along with the vertical alignment of the cyclone structure. Following this transition, an upright cyclone may persist for a long time due to the weak background vertical wind shear, diabatic cooling, and weak Rossby wave energy dispersion. The evolution of ACs can thus be regarded as a two-stage process: a baroclinic development stage aided by diabatic heating, during which the AC evolution may conform with the Norwegian model for midlatitude cyclones, and a slow decay stage of an equivalent barotropic cyclone, which may leave a remnant tropopause polar vortex after the erosion of the surface circulation. Significance Statement: Arctic cyclones are the primary weather system in the Arctic and are also an important component in the Arctic climate system owing to their role in modulating Arctic sea ice variability and poleward moisture and energy transport. We examined the cyclone structural characteristics and physical processes associated with the Arctic cyclone intensity evolution and proposed a two-stage conceptual model. A better understanding of the Arctic cyclone intensity change mechanisms will help us better anticipate the changes in Arctic cyclone activity in a warmer climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying lakes in background areas of high-latitude regions is an important component of hydrological and ecological research. The article presents new data on the chemical composition of water and recent sediments of six small lakes located in the Natural Park “Rybachy and Sredny Peninsulas” (the Russian Arctic). The main hydrochemistry parameters, including pH, conductivity, alkalinity, the content of main ions (Ca+, Mg+, Na+, K+, HCO3−, SO4−, Cl−), and other elements were measured in the water of selected lakes. Furthermore, concentrations of heavy metals (Pb, Sb, Cd, Ni, Cu, and others) were estimated in the upper layers of recent sediments of the lakes. The integral pollution loan index (PLI), designed for geochemical studies of sediments, was calculated to determine the level of chemical pollution of the lakes. The results showed that, in general, the studied parameters did not exceed the background level. There was no serious impact of the Kola Mining and Metallurgical Company, which is situated ~ 80 km to the west from the lakes. It was revealed that the studied lakes were less contaminated with heavy metals in comparison with the previously researched lakes of urban territories of the Russian Arctic zone. However, the analysis of distribution of concentrations of Ni (up to 127 mg/kg), Cu (up to 370 mg/kg), Pb (up to 90 mg/kg) revealed the influence of long-range atmospheric pollution on lakes of the Natural Park “Rybachy and Sredny Peninsulas”. The fractional analysis of the metals in the sediments showed that the elements were mainly associated with stable compounds of the sediments and, thus, there was an only potential environmental risk for the biota of the studied lakes. Elevated levels of Pb, Cd, and Zn have been found in the water and sediments of Lake Pitevoe, which is likely caused by natural processes. Samples of the sediments also revealed particles of the mineral sphalerite containing traces of Pb and Cd. The calculation of the integral pollution load index (PLI) showed that, from the point of view of sediment geochemistry, the values of the lakes of the Natural Park “Rybachy and Sredny Peninsulas” corresponded to the moderate level of pollution or the absence of any pollution. The exception is lakes where natural geochemical anomalies have been identified. Sediments of lakes Pitevoe and №4 are characterized as polluted (PLI value is more 3). It is should develop recommendations for monitoring the water bodies in the Natural Park «Rybachy and Sredny Peninsulas» and establish measures to ensure safety and counter potential threats to the well-being of people visiting the park.Highlights: The background water level of the lakes of the Natural Park “Rybachy and Sredny Peninsulas” has been confirmed. Sediments of lakes reflect the influence of a metallurgical plant 80 km from the study area. Natural contamination of sediments with U, Zn, Pb, and Cd was established due to the specific geological conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ASI algorithm uses the same sea ice and seawater tie-points when inverting polar sea ice concentration (SIC), but this approach does not fully consider the differences between different polar sea regions and the impact of different sea ice characteristics on SIC results. To make up for this deficiency, the SIC inversion algorithm based on different types of Arctic sea ice is proposed. The proposed algorithm selects pure ice and pure water sample points in different sea regions to derive SIC inversion formulas, and subsequently obtains SIC retrieval results for the entire Arctic. Compare the results of this study with those of traditional ASI algorithm, and perform local validation based on the sea ice distribution obtained from Landsat-8 data. The results show that compared with the traditional ASI algorithm, the proposed algorithm has improved the accuracy of SIC inversion in different sea ice regions by 2%-6%, with an average improvement of 3.3%. Overall, our research has improved the ASI algorithm, which is of great significance for obtaining higher precision polar SIC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In January 2022, the strongest Arctic cyclone on record resulted in a record weekly loss in sea ice cover in the Barents‐Kara‐Laptev seas. While ECMWF operational forecasts skillfully predicted the cyclone, the loss in sea ice was poorly predicted. We explore the ocean's response to the cyclone using observations from an Argo float that was profiling in the region, and investigate model biases in simulating the observed sea ice loss in a fully coupled GCM. The observations showed changes over the whole ocean column in the Barents Sea after the passage of the storm, cooling and mixing with enough implied heat release to melt roughly 1 m of sea ice. We replicate the observed cyclone in the GCM by nudging the model's winds to observations above the boundary layer. In these simulations, the associated loss of sea ice is only about 10%–15% of the observed loss, and the ocean exhibits very small changes in response to the cyclone. With the use of a simple 1‐D ice‐ocean model, we find that the overly strong ocean stratification in the GCM may be a significant source of model bias in its simulated response to the cyclone. However, even initialized with observed stratification profiles, the 1‐D model also underestimated mixing and sea ice melt relative to the observations. Plain Language Summary: Extreme storms in the Arctic can significantly impact the ocean and sea ice state. In January 2022, the strongest Arctic storm on record resulted in a record loss of sea ice. The storm was well predicted by the ECMWF operational forecasts, yet the loss of sea ice was not. Here we further study the impact that the storm had on the ocean, and how well a fully coupled global climate model simulates the observed response in sea ice and ocean to the storm. We do this by nudging the winds in the model to observations. In observations, the ocean responded to the storm by cooling and mixing to full depth in the Barents Sea, releasing enough heat to melt a significant amount of sea ice. In contrast, the model's simulated sea ice and ocean response to the storm is much smaller than estimated in observations. The model's ocean stratification prior to the storm is significantly stronger than observed and is likely a source of bias, which we confirm with the use of a simple one dimensional model. Key Points: An Argo float showed cooling and mixing in the Barents Sea during a record Arctic cyclone, accounting for the associated record sea ice lossA coupled GCM with winds nudged to observations shows much smaller changes in sea ice and ocean structure with the passage of the cycloneA 1‐D ocean model shows that too‐strong stratification in the GCM is a main source of bias in its sea ice and ocean response to the cyclone [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bering Strait is the only ocean gateway connecting the Pacific and Arctic oceans. The ∼1 Sv northward flow of Pacific water through the strait to the Arctic Ocean has been increasing by ∼0.01 Sv/yr since 1990. Monthly dynamic ocean topography (DOT), wind, and sea‐ice data at Bering Strait are analyzed in context with the long‐term record of flow through the strait to investigate local drivers. Ocean transport is found to be proportional to the across‐strait slope in DOT, suggesting some component of the flow is in geostrophic balance. Along‐strait ocean surface stresses, which modulate the across‐strait DOT slope via Ekman transport, are analyzed in the presence of a seasonally varying ice cover. It is shown that northward interior ocean flow under sea ice in winter results in southward surface stresses, and westward Ekman transport that slows the geostrophic component of the northward ocean flow. As the number of open water days local to Bering Strait increase each year, we find no trend in the annual mean surface stress, that is, the loss of sea ice is not leading to increased northward wind stress input that would enhance northward ocean flow. This analysis is consistent with the theory that changes in both the atmosphere and ocean non‐local to Bering Strait are likely driving the increased transport from the Pacific into the Arctic via Bering Strait. Plain Language Summary: Bering Strait is a narrow waterway, 50 m deep and 85 km wide, between Alaska and Russia that allows relatively warmer and fresher Pacific water to flow into the Arctic Ocean. The volume of water entering the Arctic through Bering Strait has increased approximately 30% since 1990. It is unclear what processes are responsible for this observed increase. We determine that part of Bering Strait throughflow is driven by the difference in pressure across the strait, or an across‐strait slope in sea surface, which can be caused by a stress applied parallel to the strait. When winds blow to the north, water piles up on the Alaskan side creating a pressure difference that is proportional to the flow. When sea ice is absent, winds act directly on the ocean. When sea ice is present, sea ice applies a stress onto the ocean. We find that as the Arctic loses sea ice, there are no changes in stress due to fewer days of sea ice cover. This suggests that local winds and sea ice are not driving the increase in transport, and that large‐scale changes in the Pacific and Arctic Oceans are driving the increase in transport through Bering Strait. Key Points: Monthly dynamic ocean topography (DOT) supports that some component of flow through Bering Strait is in geostrophic balanceLocal surface stress in Bering Strait increases to the south as the interior flow increases to the north when sea ice is presentThe increasing number of open water days each year is not contributing to enhanced northward transport via increased wind stress input [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar ships are subjected to the ice loading. Low temperature impact toughness of ship steels is important for the ice-breaking efficiency and navigation safety of polar ships. In this paper, the impact absorption energy of EH36 steel under different temperatures, impact velocities and plate thickness is analyzed by experimental test, Taguchi and ANOVA method. The impact absorption energy was divided into crack formation and crack propagation absorption energy. The experimental results show that the impact absorption energy of EH36 steel is positively correlated with plate thickness and temperature, and negatively with impact velocity when it was in the toughness state. The order of significance ranking from high to low is thickness, temperature, and impact velocity. The ratio of the crack propagation absorption energy increases with the temperatures and reflects the impact toughness of EH36 steel. Furthermore, the best factor combination of impact toughness of EH36 steel was obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent increases in extreme events, especially those near and beyond previous records, are a new index for Arctic and global climate change. They vary by type, location, and season. These record-shattering events often have no known historical analogues and suggest that other climate surprises are in store. Twenty-six unprecedented events from 2022, 2023, and early 2024 include record summer temperatures/heatwaves, storms, major Canadian wildfires, early continental snow melt, Greenland melt, sea temperatures of 5–7 °C above normal, drought in Iceland, and low northern Alaskan salmon runs. Collectively, such diverse extremes form a consilience, the principle that evidence from independent, unrelated sources converge as a strong indicator of ongoing Arctic change. These new behaviors represent emergent phenomenon. Emergence occurs when multiple processes interact to produce new properties, such as the interaction of Arctic amplification with the normal range of major weather events. Examples are typhon Merbok that resulted in extensive coastal erosion in the Bering Sea, Greenland melt, and record temperatures and melt in Svalbard. The Arctic can now be considered to be in a different state to before fifteen years ago. Communities must adapt for such intermittent events to avoid worst-case scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sun's activity role in climate change has become a topic of debate. According to data from the IPCC, the global average temperature has shown an increasing trend since 1850, with an average increase of 0.06 °C/decade. Our analysis of summer temperature records from five weather stations in northern Fennoscandia (65°–70.4° N) revealed an increasing trend, with a range of 0.09 °C/decade to 0.15 °C/decade. However, due to the short duration of instrumental records, it is not possible to accurately assess and predict climate changes on centennial and millennial timescales. In this study, we used the Finnish super-long (~7600 years) tree-ring chronology to create a climate prediction for the 21st century. We applied a method that combines a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network with the continuous wavelet transform and wavelet filtering in order to make climate change predictions. This approach revealed a significant decrease in tree-ring growth over the near term (2063–2073). The predicted decrease in tree-ring growth (and regional temperature) is thought to be a result of a new grand solar minimum, which may lead to Little Ice Age-like climatic conditions. This result is significant for understanding current climate processes and assessing potential environmental and socio-economic risks on a global and regional level, including in the area of the Arctic shipping routes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamic changes of sea ice exhibit spatial clustering, and this clustering has characteristics extending from its origin, through its development, and to its dissipation. Current research on sea ice change primarily focuses on spatiotemporal variation trends and remote correlation analysis, and lacks an analysis of spatiotemporal evolution characteristics. This study utilized monthly sea ice concentration (SIC) data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) for the period from 1979 to 2022, utilizing classical spatiotemporal clustering algorithms to analyze the clustering patterns and evolutionary characteristics of SIC anomalies in key Arctic regions. The results revealed that the central-western region of the Barents Sea was a critical area where SIC anomaly evolutionary behaviors were concentrated and persisted for longer durations. The relationship between the intensity and duration of SIC anomaly events was nonlinear. A positive correlation was observed for shorter durations, while a negative correlation was noted for longer durations. Anomalies predominantly occurred in December, with complex evolution happening in April and May of the following year, and concluded in July. Evolutionary state transitions mainly occurred in the Barents Sea. These transitions included shifts from the origin state in the northwestern margin to the dissipation state in the central-north Barents Sea, from the origin state in the central-north to the dissipation state in the central-south, and from the origin state in the northeastern to the dissipation state in the central-south Barents Sea and southeastern Kara Sea. Various evolutionary states were observed in the same area on the southwest edge of the Barents Sea. These findings provide insights into the evolutionary mechanism of sea ice anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting the development of regions is one of the most challenging tasks of modern economics. The quality of any forecast is determined by the methodology used. Accordingly, criticism of existing forecasts is largely connected to their methodological approaches. In this paper, a multi-level approach to forecasting the development of the region is proposed, starting with the definition of the key performance indicators and ending with the assessment of various scenarios. The study was conducted on the example of the Russian Arctic, divided into three technological zones, with three scenarios of the development for each (negative, base, positive). The application of the proposed methodology allowed for modeling the development of the region until 2035. The results show that the Russian Arctic has a huge difference in the achievability of different goals, e.g., 98% of the electricity supply targets are achievable in a baseline scenario, while only 52% are achievable in a set of "navigation" targets. The proposed methodology can be useful for diving into the details of regional forecasts, such as the impact of key companies in a region or the influence of international politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive species represent a threat to many ecosystems but are nearly absent from arctic and subarctic Canada. The treeline town of Churchill, Manitoba, has an unusually high number of invasive species due to the presence of a grain port and railway, but few of these species have spread to the surrounding tundra; for instance, common dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) currently is restricted primarily to town, in contrast with its native congener, Taraxacum lacerum. To investigate whether the distribution of T. officinale is affected by the tendency of buildings to create warm, sheltered microenvironments, we surveyed the abundance of both dandelion species relative to existing structures in town. We established transects extending up to 5 m from each side of 23 buildings, and recorded the number of plants in 50 cm × 50 cm quadrats along each transect. We found that T. officinale performed better on the south sides of buildings, that flowering decreased away from buildings, and that these effects were stronger for T. officinale than the native T. lacerum. Soil temperatures were warmer on the south rather than on the north-facing sides, providing a possible explanation. Our results show that the distribution of T. officinale currently is more influenced by human-created microclimate compared to the abundance of its native relative. However, T. officinale may spread beyond these refuges as the climate continues to warm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During marine cold‐air outbreaks (MCAOs), when cold polar air moves over warmer ocean, a well‐recognized cloud pattern develops, with open or closed mesoscale cellular convection (MCC) at larger fetch over open water. The Cold‐Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment provided a comprehensive set of ground‐based in situ and remote sensing observations of MCAOs at a coastal location in northern Norway. MCAO periods that unambiguously exhibit open or closed MCC are determined. Individual cells observed with a profiling Ka‐band radar are identified using a watershed segmentation method. Using self‐organizing maps (SOMs), these cells are then objectively classified based on the variability in their vertical structure. The SOM nodes contain some information about the location of the cell transect relative to the center of the MCC. This adds classification noise, requiring numerous cell transects to isolate cell dynamical information. The SOM‐based classification shows that comparatively intense convection occurs only in open MCC. This convection undergoes an apparent lifecycle. Developing cells are associated with stronger updrafts, large spectrum width, larger amounts of liquid water, lower surface precipitation rates, and lower cloud tops than mature and weakening cells. The weakening of these cells is associated with the development of precipitation‐induced cold pools. The SOM classification also reveals less intense convection, with a similar lifecycle. More stratiform vertical cloud structures with weak vertical motions are common during closed MCC periods and are separated into precipitating and non‐precipitating stratiform cores. Convection is observed only occasionally in the closed MCC environment. Plain Language Summary: During marine cold‐air outbreaks a characteristic cloud field develops over the open ocean. At large fetch, this cloud field is characterized by open and closed mesoscale cellular convection (MCC). The Cold‐Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment in northern Norway provided comprehensive observations of mixed‐phase MCC using ground‐based and remote sensing instruments. Distinct open or closed MCC periods are identified using a vertically pointing cloud radar. Within these periods individual cells are identified. Using a machine learning algorithm, these cells are objectively classified based on their vertical structure as observed by the radar. The classification reveals that intense convection primarily occurs in open MCC, displaying a lifecycle with developing cells characterized by strong updrafts, substantial liquid water, lower precipitation rates, and lower cloud tops compared to mature and weakening cells. Weakening cells are associated with precipitation‐induced cold pools. Less intense convection with a similar lifecycle is observed during open and closed MCC. Most frequently during closed MCC, stratiform cells with weak vertical motions are observed, some of them without precipitation reaching the surface. The vertical cloud structure of the precipitating stratiform cells is very similar to weakening convective cells. Key Points: Cloud cells in marine cold‐air outbreaks are objectively identified and classified using a profiling mm‐wave radarThe classification reveals that open‐cellular clouds undergo a convective lifecycle with distinct characteristics at each lifecycle stageClosed‐cellular clouds contain occasional convection but generally have more stratiform characteristics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow is the most reflective natural surface on Earth. Since fresh snow on bare sea ice increases the surface albedo, the impact of summer snow accumulation can have a negative radiative forcing effect, which would inhibit sea ice surface melt and potentially slow sea‐ice loss. However, it is not well known how often, where, and when summer snowfall events occur on Arctic sea ice. In this study, we used in situ and model snow depth data paired with surface albedo and atmospheric conditions from satellite retrievals to characterize summer snow accumulation on Arctic sea ice from 2003 to 2017. We found that, across the Arctic, ∼2 snow accumulation events occurred on initially snow‐free conditions each year. The average snow depth and albedo increases were ∼2 cm and 0.08, respectively. 16.5% of the snow accumulation events were optically thick (>3 cm deep) and lasted 2.9 days longer than the average snow accumulation event (3.4 days). Based on a simple, multiple scattering radiative transfer model, we estimated a −0.086 ± 0.020 W m−2 change in the annual average top‐of‐the‐atmosphere radiative forcing for summer snowfall events in 2003–2017. The following work provides new information on the frequency, distribution, and duration of observed snow accumulation events over Arctic sea ice in summer. Such results may be particularly useful in understanding the impacts of ephemeral summer weather on surface albedo and their propagating effects on the radiative forcing over Arctic sea ice, as well as assessing climate model simulations of summer atmosphere‐ice processes. Plain Language Summary: As sea ice declines in the Arctic, it is necessary to understand the role that sea ice plays in the Arctic climate. During summer, ice is particularly important because it acts as a barrier between the atmosphere and ocean, and shields the ocean from sunlight. Sea ice is a surface on which snowfall can accumulate. Since snow is the most reflective natural surface on earth, its presence during the sunny season can reflect significant amounts of sunlight away from the earth's surface and reduce warming. In this work, we studied the impact of summer snowfall on sea ice by combining data from buoys, satellites, and models to determine how much sunlight is reflected by short‐lived summer snow accumulation on Arctic sea ice. We learned that the average snow event raises the reflectivity of the surface by 0.08 with ∼2 cm of snow depth change. Events with more than 3 cm of accumulation lasted ∼3 days longer than average (∼3 days). Overall, summer snow accumulation reduces the amount of energy absorbed by the Arctic region by 0.086 W m−2 each year. These results help to improve our understanding of the Arctic climate and may also be useful for evaluating climate models. Key Points: Ephemeral summer snowfall increased albedo by 0.08 and decreased TOA radiative forcing by 0.086 ± 0.020 W m−2 across the Arctic Ocean in 2003–2017The average snow accumulation event led to a ∼2 cm increase in snow depth and lasted 3.4 daysOptically thick (>3 cm) snow accumulation events occurred in 16.5% of all events and lasted 6.3 days [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface latent and sensible heat fluxes are crucial components of the air-sea energy exchanges that influence the upper-ocean heat content and the marine atmospheric boundary layer. Due to the limited availability of in situ observations, assessing their impact on Arctic weather and climate has mainly been done using data assimilation products and numerical model simulations. The accuracy of the surface fluxes in numerical models are, however, largely unvalidated. Recent deployments of saildrones, remotely piloted uncrewed surface vehicles, can help bridge this data gap of in situ observations. This study represents an initial effort to validate sea surface latent and sensible heat fluxes over the Pacific sub-Arctic open ocean from three commonly used global reanalysis products (NASA MERRA2, ECMWF ERA5, NOAA CFSR2) against observations by saildrones. In general, fluxes from these reanalysis products and saildrone observations agree well, except for CFSR2 sensible heat fluxes, which exhibit systematic negative biases. Sporadic, very large (greater than two observed standard deviations) discrepancies between fluxes from the reanalysis products and observations do occur. These substantial discrepancies in the reanalysis products primarily result from errors in temperature for sensible heat fluxes and errors in both humidity and wind speed for latent heat fluxes. The results from this study suggest that the sea surface latent and sensible heat fluxes from MERRA2 and ERA5 are reliable in representing the mean features of air-sea exchanges in the sub-Arctic region. Nonetheless, their reliability is limited when used for studies of high-frequency variability, such as synoptic weather events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to tectonic uplift in the Cenozoic and numerous shelf-wide glaciations during the Quaternary, -1-2.5 km of sedimentary overburden has been eroded from the Barents Sea shelf, leading to the exhumation and partial uncapping of hydrocarbon accumulations. Widespread natural gas and oil leakage from the glacially eroded middle-upper Triassic reservoir directly into the water column has been documented at the Sentralbanken high in the northern Norwegian Barents Sea. However, it remains unclear whether the hydrocarbon leakage occurs only from the middle-upper Triassic reservoir units in geological settings exceptionally conducive to hydrocarbon leakage, or if other reservoir formations contributed to the release of hydrocarbons into the water column. It is also not clear whether complete erosion of the caprock is a prerequisite for widespread liberation of natural gas and oil from glacially eroded reservoirs across Arctic continental shelves. Here we analyze multibeam echosounder data covering -5,000 km2 and a suite of high-resolution P-cable seismic lines from a range of geological structures across the northern Norwegian Barents Sea. Our analyses reveal that -21,700 natural gas seeps originate from exhumed, faulted and variably eroded structural highs bearing a range of Mesozoic reservoir formations. All investigated structural highs fuel seabed methane release hotspots with no exception. Evident from observations of seismic anomalies, fluid accumulations are pervasive in the subsurface and likely to continue fuelling seabed gas seepage into the future. We also document that gas seepage through faults piercing overburden, caprocks and reaching potential reservoir levels is pervasive at all investigated structural highs. On the Storbanken high and the Kong Karl platform, such fault-controlled seepage is more prevalent than seepage from reservoir formations subcropping below the seafloor. Using a simple parametrization approach, we estimate that seeps identified within our multibeam data coverage produce a seabed methane flux of 61 x 107 mol/yr (9,803 ton/yr), which is one to two orders of magnitude higher than other globally known submarine methane seepage provinces. Fluxes of methane from sea water to the air above the thermogenic gas seep provinces in the northern Norwegian Barents Sea remain to be determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is one of the most important regions in the world's oceans for understanding the impacts of a changing climate. Yet, it is also difficult to measure because of extreme weather and ice conditions. In this work, we directly compare four datasets from the Group for High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) with a NASA Saildrone deployment along the Alaskan Coast and the Bering Sea and Bering Strait. The four datasets used are the Remote Sensing Systems Microwave Infrared Optimally Interpolated (MWIR) product, the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) product, the Daily Optimally Interpolated Product (DOISST), and the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA) product. Spatial sea surface temperature (SST) gradients were derived for both the Saildrone deployment and GHRSST products, with the GHRSST products collocated with the Saildrone deployment. Overall, statistics indicate that the OSTIA product had a correlation of 0.79 and a root mean square difference of 0.11 °C/km when compared with Saildrone. CMC had the highest correlation of 0.81. Scatter plots indicate that OSTIA had the slope closest to one, thus best reproducing the magnitudes of the Saildrone gradients. Differences increased at latitudes > 65°N where sea ice would have a greater impact. A trend analysis was then performed on the gradient fields. Overall, positive trends in gradients occurred in areas along the coastal regions. A negative trend occurred at approximately 60°N. A major finding of this study is that future work needs to revolve around the impact of changing ice conditions on SST gradients. Another major finding is that a northward shift in the southern ice edge occurred after 2010 with a maxima at approximately 2019. This indicates that the shift of the southern ice edge is not gradual but has dramatically increased over the last decade. Future work needs to revolve around examining the possible causes for this northward shift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing and projected retreat of Arctic sea ice has garnered international interest toward the utilization of Arctic maritime corridors for shipping, tourism, and development. Yet, with potential for increasing traffic in Arctic regions, it's important to consider additional environmental variables affected by climate change which may threaten maritime operations. Here, we use four climate model projections to produce ocean wave simulations and investigate the future magnitude and seasonality of sea ice risk coupled with wave hazards. Analyzing the potential 5 mo shipping season spanning July to November along the Northwest Passage maritime route between 2020 and 2070, our results show a substantial decline in sea ice risk over the analysis time period, resulting in near open-water conditions along the route for a 5 mo period by 2070. However, as seasonal ice coverage retreats, there is a significant upward trend in wave heights along the route during July and November, with the timing of the greatest wave height shifting away from September toward later in the season. This result is pertinent as the possibility of seasonally unprecedented extreme waves coupled with subfreezing late fall temperatures makes for an especially hazardous environment, thus emphasizing the importance of considering the interaction between evolving sea ice and interdependent hazards when predicting the risks and challenges faced by Arctic maritime operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]