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Grasses fuel most fires on Earth and strongly influence local fire behaviour through traits that determine how flammable they are. Therefore, grass communities that differ in their species and trait compositions give rise to significant spatial variation in savanna fire regimes across the world, which cannot be otherwise explained. Likewise, fire regimes are continuously modified by alterations to savanna grass community traits, through species introductions and climatic changes. However, current representation of grassy fuels in global fire models misses important variation and therefore limits predictive power. The inclusion of grass trait diversity in models, using remotely sensed trait proxies, for example, will greatly improve our ability to understand and project savanna fires and their roles in the Earth system. Most fires on Earth occur in savannas, but vary considerably in their extent, frequency, and intensity. These patterns cannot fully be explained by climate or land management. An important 'missing-piece' in explaining the variation in savanna fire regimes is the diversity of grasses that fuel fires and whose traits strongly influence fire behaviour. The major differences in savanna fire behaviour across continents may lie in the contrasting species and trait assemblages in savanna grass communities. Fire regimes change significantly when savanna grass communities or traits are altered by the introduction of invasive species and climatic changes. Improved representation of grass trait diversity in fire models will be essential for reliable forecasts of the behaviour and impacts of the majority of fires on Earth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grasslands, which constitute almost 40% of the terrestrial biosphere, provide habitat for a great diversity of animals and plants and contribute to the livelihoods of more than 1 billion people worldwide. Whereas the destruction and degradation of grasslands can occur rapidly, recent work indicates that complete recovery of biodiversity and essential functions occurs slowly or not at all. Grassland restoration—interventions to speed or guide this recovery—has received less attention than restoration of forested ecosystems, often due to the prevailing assumption that grasslands are recently formed habitats that can reassemble quickly. Viewing grassland restoration as long-term assembly toward old-growth endpoints, with appreciation of feedbacks and threshold shifts, will be crucial for recognizing when and how restoration can guide recovery of this globally important ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling fire spread as an infection process is intuitive: An ignition lights a patch of fuel, which infects its neighbor, and so on. Infection models produce nonlinear thresholds, whereby fire spreads only when fuel connectivity and infection probability are sufficiently high. These thresholds are fundamental both to managing fire and to theoretical models of fire spread, whereas applied fire models more often apply quasiempirical approaches. Here, we resolve this tension by quantifying thresholds in fire spread locally, using field data from individual fires (n = 1,131) in grassy ecosystems across a precipitation gradient (496 to 1,442 mm mean annual precipitation) and evaluating how these scaled regionally (across 533 sites) and across time (1989 to 2012 and 2016 to 2018) using data from Kruger National Park in South Africa. An infection model captured observed patterns in individual fire spread better than competing models. The proportion of the landscape that burned was well described by measurements of grass biomass, fuel moisture, and vapor pressure deficit. Regionally, averaging across variability resulted in quasi-linear patterns. Altogether, results suggest that models aiming to capture fire responses to global change should incorporate nonlinear fire spread thresholds but that linear approximations may sufficiently capture medium-term trends under a stationary climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Newly germinated seedlings are vulnerable to biomass removal but usually have at least 6 months to grow before they are exposed to dry‐season fires, a major disturbance in savannas. In contrast, plants are exposed to browsers from the time they germinate, making browsing potentially a very powerful bottleneck for establishing seedlings.Here we assess the resilience of seedlings of 10 savanna tree species to topkill during the first 6 months of growth. Newly germinated seeds from four dominant African genera from across the rainfall gradient were planted in a common garden experiment at the Wits Rural Facility and clipped at 1 cm when they were ~2, 3, 4 and 5 months old. Survival, growth and key plant traits were monitored for the following 2.5 years.Seedlings from environments with high herbivory pressure survived topkill at a younger age than those from low‐herbivore environments, and more palatable genera had higher herbivore tolerance. Most individuals that survived were able to recover lost biomass within 12 months, but the clipping treatment affected root mass fraction and branching patterns.Synthesis. The impact of early browsing as a demographic bottleneck can be predicted by integrating information on the probability of being browsed and the probability of surviving a browse event. Establishment limitation through early browsing is an under‐recognized constraint on savanna tree species distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims Little is known about the response of ground layer plant communities to fire in Miombo ecosystems, which is a global blind spot of ecological understanding. We aimed: (1) to assess the impact of three experimentally imposed fire treatments on ground layer species composition and compare it with patterns observed for trees; and (2) to analyse the effect of fire treatments on species richness to assess how responses differ among plant functional groups. Methods At a 60-year-long fire experiment in Zambia, we quantified the richness and diversity of ground layer plants in terms of taxa and functional groups across three experimental fire treatments of late dry-season fire, early dry-season fire and fire exclusion. Data were collected in five repeat surveys from the onset of the wet season to the early dry season. Key Results Of the 140 ground layer species recorded across the three treatments, fire-maintained treatments contributed most of the richness and diversity, with the least number of unique species found in the no-fire treatment. The early-fire treatment was more similar in composition to the no-fire treatment than to the late-fire treatment. C4 grass and geoxyle richness were highest in the late-fire treatment, and there were no shared sedge species between the late-fire and other treatments. At a plot level, the average richness in the late-fire treatment was twice that of the fire exclusion treatment. Conclusions Heterogeneity in fire seasonality and intensity supports diversity of a unique flora by providing a diversity of local environments. African ecosystems face rapid expansion of land- and fire-management schemes for carbon offsetting and sequestration. We demonstrate that analyses of the impacts of such schemes predicated on the tree flora alone are highly likely to underestimate impacts on biodiversity. A research priority must be a new understanding of the Miombo ground layer flora integrated into policy and land management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire‐herbivory feedbacks strongly influence the formation of grazing lawns in savanna ecosystems. Preliminary findings suggest that small‐scale (<25 ha) fires can engineer grazing lawns by concentrating herbivores on the post‐burn green flush; however, the persistence of such grazing lawns over the longer term and without repeated fire is unknown. We used high‐resolution Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) to investigate the long‐term effects of fire manipulation on short grass structure (height, cover, volume and spatial continuity) and grazing lawn establishment in Kruger National Park, South Africa. We analysed the effects of fire exclusion and experimental burns applied over a 7‐year period (2013–2019) followed by a 1‐year cessation of burning at varying spatial scales during the early and late dry seasons. Fires contributed a fourfold increase in short grass cover, regardless of fire season or size. The distribution of grass height differed significantly between fire‐induced grazing lawns and recently unburnt parts of the landscape where controlled fires were excluded over the experimental period. The volume (corresponding to bulk density) of short grass on the landscape responded strongly to fires, with grass volume <20 cm in height increasing with both early and late dry season fires. Early dry season fires caused larger and more homogeneous short grass patches. Furthermore, early dry season fires were more influential in increasing the cover of the shortest grass height class (1–5 cm). Synthesis and applications. Our results demonstrate that fire‐induced grazing lawns can persist over the longer term, even when fires are no longer applied, leading to the creation of vertical and horizontal heterogeneity in the grass layer. Small‐scale fires, therefore, represent a feasible management approach to expanding grazing lawn extent, potentially benefiting grazer coexistence and diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In savannas, ruminant herbivores can have divergent impacts on tree recruitment and subsequent woody cover. Whereas heavy grazing by cattle results in woody thickening, intensive grazing by wildlife instead tends to be associated with lower woody cover.To disentangle why woody cover is low in areas heavily grazed by wildlife, we investigated (a) whether grazing lawns attract indigenous mammalian browsers, and if a preference for short‐grass habitat decreases with browser body mass as predator susceptibility decreases; and (b) whether browser attraction to grazing lawns translates into the suppression of woody plants, including seedlings and saplings, thus maintaining the openness of heavily grazed short‐grass areas.In Kruger National Park, South Africa, we contrasted browser abundance (using dung counts) on grazing lawns and on low‐herbivory sites characterised by tall grass. Additionally, a herbivore exclosure experiment was set up to investigate the combined impact of browser removal and grass height habitat type on seedling survival and sapling growth of a dominant woody plant species. Finally, in Hluhluwe‐iMfolozi Park (HiP), we examined the long‐term (10 years) impact of browser removal on the growth rates of a range of woody species, monitored across ten sites along a gradient of herbivory ranging from grazing lawn to tall grass.Steenbok and impala selected short‐ over tall grass as preferred browsing sites, while elephant preferred tall grass. Browser abundance on short grass decreased with browser body mass, indicating that predator avoidance might be a key factor driving mesoherbivores to utilise grazing lawns.Seedling survival was lowest on grazing lawns when browsers were present, with mortality occurring in two out of every three seedlings. Similarly, sapling growth was lowest on grazing lawns, although browser removal had no significant effect. Evidence for increased browser impact on grazing lawns was clearest from our long‐term herbivore exclosure experiment in HiP, which demonstrated that browsers strongly modify the growth rates of woody plants in short‐grass habitats.Synthesis. These results provide support for the hypothesis that browsers, particularly browsing mesoherbivores and mixed feeders, are attracted to short‐grass habitats, and that they help maintain grazing lawn openness by suppressing seedling survival and woody plant growth where grass is kept short by grazers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire and frost represent two major hurdles for the persistence of trees in open grassy biomes and have both been proposed as drivers of grassland‐forest boundaries in Africa.We assess the response of young tree seedlings, which represent a vulnerable stage in tree recruitment, to traumatic fire and frost disturbances.In a greenhouse experiment, we investigated how seedling traits predicted survival and resprouting ability in response to fire versus frost; we characterized survival strategies of seedlings in response to the two disturbances, and we documented how the architecture of surviving seedlings is affected by fire versus frost injury.Survival rates were similar under both treatments. However, different species displayed different levels of sensitivity to fire and frost. Seedling survival was higher for older seedlings and seedlings with more basal leaves. Survivors of a fire event lost more biomass than the survivors of a frost event. However, the architecture of recovered fire‐ and frost‐treated seedlings was mostly similar. Seedlings that recovered from fire and frost treatments were often shorter than those that had not been exposed to any disturbance, with multiple thin branches, which may increase vulnerability to the next frost or fire event.Synthesis. Fire caused more severe aboveground damage compared with a single frost event, suggesting that fire is an important driver of tree distribution in these open grassland systems. However, the impact of repeated frost events may be equally severe and needs to be investigated. Also, woody species composition may be influenced by phenomena that affect the timing and frequency of seedling exposure to damage, as mortality was found to be dependent on seedling age. Therefore, changes in fire regime and climate are likely to result in changes in the composition and the structure of the woody components of these systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Fire and herbivory both remove aboveground biomass. Environmental factors determine the type and intensity of these consumers globally, but the traits of plants can also alter their propensity to burn and the degree to which they are eaten. To understand plant life‐history strategies associated with fire and herbivory we need to describe both response and effect functional traits, and how they sort within communities, along resource gradients, and across evolutionary timescales. Fire and herbivore functional traits are generally considered separately, but there are advances made in understanding fire that relate to herbivory, and vice versa. Moreover, fire and herbivory interact: the presence of one consumer affects the type and intensity of the other. Here, we present a unifying conceptual framework to understand plant strategies that enable tolerance and persistence to fire and herbivory. Using grasses as an example, we discuss how flammability and fire tolerance, palatability, and grazing tolerance traits might organize themselves in ecosystems exposed to these consumers, and how these traits might have evolved with reference to other strong selective processes, like aridity. Our framework can be used to predict both the diversity of life‐history strategies and plant species diversity under different consumer regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold temperatures have been posited as a key driver of polyploidy (possession of multiple chromosome sets). However, high temperatures associated with fire, and the indirect impact of post-fire environments in polypoid formation and establishment deserve more attention for a comprehensive understanding of polyploid ecology, evolution, and current distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire and mammalian grazers both consume grasses, and feedbacks between grass species, their functional traits, and consumers have profound effects on grassy ecosystem structure worldwide, such that savanna and grassland states determined by fire or grazing can be considered alternate states. These parallel savanna–forest alternate states, which likewise have myriad cascading ecosystem impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variation in grass height is beneficial to biodiversity conservation in savanna landscapes. Theory predicts that small fires can promote short-grass areas within savannas. We experimentally assessed the influence of fire season and size on grass height and the resultant response of wild grazer communities and tested three hypotheses: (1) repeated small fires in tall-grass savannas increase short-grass grazer densities in the post-burn environment; (2) increased grazer densities maintain grass height in a short, palatable state and drive feedbacks that exclude fire; and (3) late-dry season burns concentrate grazers more effectively than early dry season burns., We repeatedly applied annual treatments (unburned, early- and late-burns) in 0.25-, 5- and 25-ha plots over a period of 3 years in a tall-grass savanna system in Kruger National Park, South Africa. Dung counts for grazer density and grass height data were collected along 50-m transects. Grass height was measured in paired 1-m2 herbivore exclosures on plots before and after applied fires., Dung data indicate that wildebeest occurred most frequently in grass heights below 5 cm. Their preference for plots regardless of fire size or season increased over time with each repeated burn. Zebra and buffalo favoured burns immediately post-fire, but buffalo did not actively select for burnt areas over longer time periods., By the second year of treatment, herbivory maintained 28% and 91% of the grass height below 10 cm in the early- and late-season burns respectively. In contrast, herbivory on the unburned treatments had no effect on grass height., Synthesis and applications. Fires less than 25 ha in size attracted sufficient grazing herbivores to shorten grass height. Repetition of the fire treatments resulted in the active selection of these areas in the longer term by wildebeest, impala and, to a lesser degree, zebra. Grazing pressure was high enough to initiate positive feedbacks and maintain lawns after only two seasons of burning and, depending on the season of burn, reduced grass height to a level that excluded repeat fires. Our study demonstrated that theory on grazer use of the post-fire environment can be implemented practically by applying small repeated burns to promote the formation of short-grass areas within savannas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire and herbivory are the two consumers of above-ground biomass globally. They have contrasting impacts as they differ in terms of selectivity and temporal occurrence. Here, we integrate continental-scale data on fire and herbivory in Africa to explore (i) how environmental drivers constrain these two consumers and (ii) the degree to which each consumer affects the other. Environments conducive to mammalian herbivory are not necessarily the same as those conducive to fire, although their spheres of influence do overlap-especially in grassy ecosystems which are known for their frequent fires and abundance of large mammalian herbivores. Interactions between fire and herbivory can be competitive, facultative or antagonistic, and we explore this with reference to the potential for alternative ecosystem states. Although fire removes orders of magnitude more biomass than herbivory their methane emissions are very similar, and in the past, herbivores probably emitted more methane than fire. We contrast the type of herbivory and fire in different ecosystems to define 'consumer-realms'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human impacts on fire regimes accumulated slowly with the evolution of modern humans able to ignite fires and manipulate landscapes. Today, myriad voices aim to influence fire in grassy ecosystems to different ends, and this is complicated by a colonial past focused on suppressing fire and preventing human ignitions. Here, I reviewavailable evidence on the impacts of people on various fire characteristics such as the number and size of fires, fire intensity, fire frequency and seasonality of fire in African grassy ecosystems, with the intention of focusing the debate and identifying areas of uncertainty. Humans alter seasonal patterns of fire in grassy systems but tend to decrease total fire emissions: livestock have replaced fire as the dominant consumer in many parts of Africa, and fragmented landscapes reduce area burned. Humans alter the season and time of day when fires occur, with important implications for fire intensity, tree-grass dynamics and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Late season fires are more common when fire is banned or illegal: these later fires are farmore intense but emit fewerGHGs. The types of fireswhich preserve human livelihoods and biodiversity are not always aligned with the goal of reducing GHG concentrations. Current fire management challenges therefore involve balancing the needs of a large rural population against national and global perspectives on the desirability of different types of fire, but this cannot happen unless the interests of all parties are equally represented. In the future, Africa is expected to urbanize and land use to intensify, which will imply different trajectories for the continent's fire regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leaf phenology dictates the time available for carbon assimilation, transpiration and nutrient uptake in plants. Understanding the environmental cues that control phenology is therefore vital for predicting climate-related changes to plant and ecosystem function. In contrast to temperate systems, and to a lesser degree, tropical forest systems, the cues initiating leaf drop in tropical savannas are poorly studied. We investigated the cues for leaf fall in a tropical monodominant arid savanna species, C olophospermum mopane, using an irrigation experiment. We tracked soil moisture, solar radiation, air temperature, leaf water status, leaf health and leaf carbon balance through the dry season in both irrigated and control plants. Water was the primary cue driving leaf loss of C . mopane rather than temperature or light. Trees watered throughout the dry season retained their canopies. These leaves remained functional and continued photosynthesis throughout the dry season. Leaf carbon acquisition rates did not decline with leaf age but were affected by soil moisture availability and temperature. Leaf loss did not occur when leaf carbon gain was zero, or when a particular leaf carbon threshold was reached. C olophospermum mopane is facultatively deciduous as water availability determines leaf drop in this widespread arid savanna species. Obligate deciduosity is not the only successful strategy in climates with a long dry season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Megafaunal extinctions and a lack of suitable remote sensing technology impede our understanding of both the ecological legacy and current impacts of large mammal herbivores in the Earth system. To address this, we reconstructed the form and intensity of herbivory pressure across sub-Saharan Africa ~1000 years ago. Specifically, we modeled and mapped species-level biomass for 92 large mammal herbivores using census data, species distributions, and environmental covariates. Trait-based classifications of these species into herbivore functional types, and analyses of their biomass surfaces, reveal four ecologically distinct continental-scale herbivory regimes, characterized by internally similar forms and intensities of herbivory pressure. Associations between herbivory regimes, fire prevalence, soil nutrient status, and rainfall provide important insights into African ecology and pave the way for integrating herbivores into global-scale studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Grazing lawns are a distinct grassland community type, characterised by short-stature and with their persistence and spread promoted by grazing. In Africa, they reveal a long co-evolutionary history of grasses and large mammal grazers. The attractiveness to grazers of a low-biomass sward lies in the relatively high quality of forage, largely due to the low proportion of stem material in the sward; this encourages repeat grazing that concomitantly suppresses tall-grass growth forms that would otherwise outcompete lawn species for light. Regular grazing that prevents shading and maintains sward quality is thus the cornerstone of grazing lawn dynamics. The strong interplay between abiotic conditions and disturbance factors, which are central to grazing lawn existence, can also cause these systems to be highly dynamic. Here we identify differences in growth form among grazing lawn grass species, and assess how compositional differences among lawn types, as well as environmental variables, influence their maintenance requirements (i.e. grazing frequency) and vulnerability to degradation. We also make a clear distinction between the processes of lawn establishment and lawn maintenance. Rainfall, soil nutrient status, grazer community composition and fire regime have strong and interactive influences on both processes. However, factors that concentrate grazing pressure (e.g. nutrient hotspots and sodic sites) have more bearing on where lawns establish. Similarly, we discuss the relevance of enhanced rates of nitrogen cycling and of sodium levels to lawn maintenance. Grazer community composition and density has considerable significance to grazing lawn dynamics; not all grazers are adapted to foraging on short-grass swards, and differences in body size and relative mouth dimensions determine which species are able to convert tall-grass swards into grazing lawns under different conditions. Hence, we evaluate the roles of different grazers in lawn dynamics, as well as the benefits that grazer populations derive from having access to grazing lawns. The effects of grazing lawns can extend well beyond their borders, due to their influence on grazer densities, behaviour and movements as well as fire spread, intensity and frequency. Variation in the area and proportion of a landscape that is grazing lawn can thus have a profound impact on system dynamics. We provide a conceptual model that summarises grazing lawn dynamics, and identify a rainfall range where we predict grazing lawns to be most prevalent. We also examine the biodiversity associated with grazing lawn systems, and consider their functional contribution to the conservation of this biodiversity. Finally, we assess the utility of grazing lawns as a resource in a rangeland context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire is a ubiquitous component of the Earth system that is poorly understood. To date, a global-scale understanding of fire is largely limited to the annual extent of burning as detected by satellites. This is problematic because fire is multidimensional, and focus on a single metric belies its complexity and importance within the Earth system. To address this, we identified five key characteristics of fire regimes—size, frequency, intensity, season, and extent-and combined new and existing global datasets to represent each. We assessed how these global fire regime characteristics are related to patterns of climate, vegetation (biomes), and human activity. Cross-correlations demonstrate that only certain combinations of fire characteristics are possible, reflecting fundamental constraints in the types of fire regimes that can exist. A Bayesian clustering algorithm identified five global syndromes of fire regimes, or pyromes. Four pyromes represent distinctions between crown, litter, and grassfueled fires, and the relationship of these to biomes and climate are not deterministic. Pyromes were partially discriminated on the basis of available moisture and rainfall seasonality. Human impacts also affected pyromes and are globally apparent as the driver of a fifth and unique pyrome that represents human-engineered modifications to fire characteristics. Differing biomes and climates may be represented within the same pyrome, implying that pathways of change in future fire regimes in response to changes in climate and human activity may be difficult to predict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human ability to manipulate fire and the landscape has increased over evolutionary time, but the impact of this on fire regimes and consequences for biodiversity and biogeochemistry are hotly debated. Reconstructing historical changes in human-derived fire regimes empirically is challenging, but information is available on the timing of key human innovations and on current human impacts on fire; here we incorporate this knowledge into a spatially explicit fire propagation model. We explore how changes in population density, the ability to create fire, and the expansion of agropastoralism altered the extent and seasonal distribution of fire as modern humans arose and spread through Africa. Much emphasis has been placed on the positive effect of population density on ignition frequency, but our model suggests this is less important than changes in fire spread and connectivity that would have occurred as humans learned to light fires in the dry season and to transform the landscape through grazing and cultivation. Different landscapes show different limitations; we show that substantial human impacts on burned area would only have started ~4,000 B.P. in open landscapes, whereas they could have altered fire regimes in closed/dissected landscapes by ~40,000 B.P. Dry season fires have been the norm for the past 200-300 ky across all landscapes. The annual area burned in Africa probably peaked between 4 and 40 kya. These results agree with recent paleocarbon studies that suggest that the biomass burned today is less than in the recent past in subtropical countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Savannas are known as ecosystems with tree cover below climate-defined equilibrium values. However, a predictive framework for understanding constraints on tree cover is lacking. We present (a) a spatially, extensive analysis of tree cover and fire distribution in sub-Saharan Africa, and (b) a model, based on empirical results, demonstrating that savanna and forest may be alternative stable states in parts of Africa, with implications for understanding savanna distributions. Tree cover does not increase continuously with rainfall, but rather is constrained to low (<50%, "savanna") or high tree cover (>75%, "forest"). Intermediate tree cover rarely occurs. Fire, which prevents trees from establishing, differentiates high and low tree cover, especially in areas with rainfall between 1000 mm and 2000 mm. Fire is less important at low rainfall (<1000 mm), where rainfall limits tree cover, and at high rainfall (>2000 mm), where fire is rare. This pattern suggests that complex' interactions between climate and disturbance produce emergent alternative states in tree cover. The relationship between tree cover and fire was incorporated into a dynamic model including grass, savanna tree saplings, and savanna trees: Only recruitment from sapling to adult tree varied depending on the amount of grass in the system. Based on our empirical analysis and previous work, fires spread only at tree cover of 40% or less, producing a sigmoidal fire probability distribution as a function of grass cover and therefore a sigmoidal sapling to tree recruitment function. This model demonstrates that, given relatively conservative and empirically supported assumptions about the establishment of trees in savannas, alternative stable states for the same set of environmental conditions (i.e., model parameters) are possible via a fire feedback mechanism. Integrating alternative stable state dynamics into models of biome distributions could improve our ability to predict changes in biome distributions and in carbon storage under climate and global change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The factors controlling the extent of fire in Africa south of the equator were investigated using moderate resolution (500 m) satellite-derived burned area maps and spatial data on the environmental factors thought to affect burnt area. A random forest regression tree procedure was used to determine the relative importance of each factor in explaining the burned area fraction and to address hypotheses concerned with human and climatic influences on the drivers of burnt area. The model explained 68% of the variance in burnt area. Tree cover, rainfall in the previous 2 years, and rainfall seasonality were the most important predictors. Human activities – represented by grazing, roads per unit area, population density, and cultivation fraction – were also shown to affect burnt area, but only in parts of the continent with specific climatic conditions, and often in ways counter to the prevailing wisdom that more human activity leads to more fire. The analysis found no indication that ignitions were limiting total burnt area on the continent, and most of the spatial variation was due to variation in fuel load and moisture. Split conditions from the regression tree identified (i) low rainfall regions, where fire is rare; (ii) regions where fire is under human control; and (iii) higher rainfall regions where burnt area is determined by rainfall seasonality. This study provides insights into the physical, climatic, and human drivers of fire and their relative importance across southern Africa, and represents the beginnings of a predictive framework for burnt area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to investigate how environmental factors other than light availability affect tree architecture, differences in branching architecture and allometry were analysed in populations of Acacia karroo Hein. from three different environments in South Africa: forests, savannas and arid-shrublands. Factors such as fire and herbivory have a large effect on tree life history in certain environments and are likely to have selected for trees that have different architectures from those of forest trees, whose major limitation is light assimilation. Significant differences were found in stem architecture and branching architecture between trees in each environment. Compared with forest trees, trees in savannas had an elongated growth form with small canopy and leaf areas, and tall, thin, unbranched trunks. Trees in arid areas showed opposite trends with wider canopies, and increased lateral branching. Savanna trees had significantly smaller spines than trees in other environments, and both forest and savanna trees showed delayed reproduction. These differences are probably related to a trade-off between an architecture geared towards rapid height-gain and one promoting lateral spread, and can be explained with reference to the different selective pressures in each environment. In forests, vertical and horizontal growth are both important. However, in savannas there is a great pressure for rapid vertical growth to escape fires, while in arid areas a defensive, lateral growth form is selected for. Savanna trees and arid karoo trees have evolved architectures that are more extreme vertically and laterally than the range of architectures displayed in a forest community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regional research concentration. This inaugural State of Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying extreme events from the March 2023–February 2024 fire season. We assess the causes, predictability, and attribution of these events to climate change and land use, and forecast future risks under different climate scenarios. During the 2023–24 fire season, 3.9 million km2 burned globally, slightly below the average of previous seasons, but fire carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totaling 2.4 Pg C. This was driven by record emissions in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times the average) and dampened by reduced activity in African savannahs. Notable events included record-breaking wildfire extent and emissions in Canada, the largest recorded wildfire in the European Union (Greece), drought-driven fires in western Amazonia and northern parts of South America, and deadly fires in Hawai'i (100 deaths) and Chile (131 deaths). Over 232,000 people were evacuated in Canada alone, highlighting the severity of human impact. Our analyses revealed that multiple drivers were needed to cause areas of extreme fire activity. In Canada and Greece a combination of high fire weather and an abundance of dry fuels increased the probability of fires by 4.5-fold and 1.9–4.1-fold, respectively, whereas fuel load and direct human suppression often modulated areas with anomalous burned area. The fire season in Canada was predictable three months in advance based on the fire weather index, whereas events in Greece and Amazonia had shorter predictability horizons. Formal attribution analyses indicated that the probability of extreme events has increased significantly due to anthropogenic climate change, with a 2.9–3.6-fold increase in likelihood of high fire weather in Canada and a 20.0–28.5-fold increase in Amazonia. By the end of the century, events of similar magnitude are projected to occur 2.22–9.58 times more frequently in Canada under high emission scenarios. Without mitigation, regions like Western Amazonia could see up to a 2.9-fold increase in extreme fire events. For the 2024–25 fire season, seasonal forecasts highlight moderate positive anomalies in fire weather for parts of western Canada and South America, but no clear signal for extreme anomalies is present in the forecast. This report represents our first annual effort to catalogue extreme wildfire events, explain their occurrence, and predict future risks. By consolidating state-of-the-art wildfire science and delivering key insights relevant to policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, and land managers, we aim to enhance society's resilience to wildfires and promote advances in preparedness, mitigation, and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diversity and Distributions, 28 (3), 404 - 416. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13283 30 Harris, R. M., Beaumont, L. J., Vance, T. R., Tozer, C. R., Remenyi, T. A., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Mitchell, P. J., Nicotra, A. B., McGregor, S., Andrew, N. R., Letnic, M., Kearney, M. R., Wernberg, T., Hutley, L. B., Chambers, L. E., Fletcher, M.-S., Keatley, M. R., Woodward, C. A., Williamson, G., ... Bowman, D. M. J. S. (2018). BIO SKETCH The authors of this manuscript acted as guest editors for the "Fire ecology for the 21st century: conserving biodiversity in the age of megafire" Special Issue and encompass expertise in fire ecology and behaviour from a range of ecosystems across the globe. Recent megafires have alarmed conservation scientists and practitioners because their scale and intensity demands new ways of thinking about biodiversity conservation in fire-prone landscapes, and, potentially, new tools tailored to avoid or minimise fire-induced declines and extinctions (Wintle et al., 2020). 67 Ward, M., Tulloch, A. I., Radford, J. Q., Williams, B. A., Reside, A. E., Macdonald, S. L., Mayfield, H. J., Maron, M., Possingham, H. P., Vine, S. J., O'Connor, J. L., Massingham, E. J., Greenville, A. C., Woinarski, J. C. Z., Garnett, S. T., Lintermans, M., Scheele, B. C., Carwardine, J., Nimmo, D. G., Lindenmayer, D. B., Kooyman, R. M., Simmonds, J. S., Sonter, L. J., & Watson, J. E. M. (2020). [Extracted from the article]

Theoretically, fire-tree cover feedbacks can maintain savanna and forest as alternative stable states. However, the global extent of fire-driven discontinuities in tree cover is unknown, especially accounting for seasonality and soils. We use tree cover, climate, fire, and soils data sets to show that tree cover is globally discontinuous. Climate influences tree cover globally but, at intermediate rainfall (1000 to 2500 millimeters) with mild seasonality (less than 7 months), tree cover is bimodal, and only fire differentiates between savanna and forest. These may be alternative states over large areas, including parts of Amazonia and the Congo. Changes in biome distributions, whether at the cost of savanna (due to fragmentation) or forest (due to climate), will be neither smooth nor easily reversible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Radical and quick transformations towards sustainability will be fundamental to achieving a more sustainable future. However, deliberate interventions to reconfigure systems will result in winners and losers, with the potential for greater or lesser equity and justice outcomes. Positive tipping points (PTPs) have been proposed as interventions in complex systems with the aim to (a) reduce the likelihood of negative Earth system tipping points and/or (b) increase the likelihood of achieving just social foundations. However, many narratives around PTPs often do not take into account the entire spectrum of impacts the proposed alternatives could have or still rely on narratives that maintain current unsustainable behaviours and marginalize many people (i.e. do not take "b" into account). One such example is the move from petrol-based to electric vehicles. An energy transition that remains based on natural resource inputs from the Global South must be unpacked with an equity and justice lens to understand the true cost of this transition. There are two arguments why a critical engagement with these and other similar proposals needs to be made. First, the idea of transitioning through a substitution (e.g. of fuel) while maintaining the system structure (e.g. of private vehicles) may not necessarily be conceived as the kind of radical transformation being called for by global scientific bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Second, and probably more importantly, the question of positive for whom, positive where, and positive how must be considered. In this paper, we unpack these narratives using a critical decolonial view from the south and outline their implications for the concept of tipping points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Plant populations persist under recurrent fire via resprouting from surviving tissues (resprouters) or seedling recruitment (seeders). Woody species are inherently slow maturing, meaning that seeders are confined to infrequent fire regimes. However, for grasses, which mature faster, the relationships between persistence strategy and fire regime remain unknown.Globally, we analysed associations between fire regimes experienced by hundreds of grass species and their persistence strategy, within a phylogenetic context. We also tested whether persistence strategies are associated with morphological and physiological traits.Resprouters were associated with less frequent fire than seeders. Whilst modal fire frequencies were similar (fire return interval of 4–6 yr), seeders were restricted to regions with more frequent fire than resprouters, suggesting that greater competition with long‐lived resprouters restricts seeder recruitment and survival when fire is rare. Resprouting was associated with lower leaf N, higher C:N ratios and the presence of belowground buds, but was unrelated to photosynthetic pathway.Differences between the life histories of grasses and woody species led to a contrasting prevalence of seeders and resprouters in relation to fire frequency. Rapid sexual maturation in grasses means that seeder distributions, relative to fire regime, are determined by competitive ability and recruitment, rather than time to reproductive maturity. See also the Commentary on this article by Day, 230: 406‐407. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the significance of grasslands, which were once considered low in diversity, as recent research shows their high biodiversity and carbon storing potential, requiring over a century to recover after agricultural plowing; it emphasizes the importance of conserving natural grasslands for their ecosystem services and their role in food security and climate change mitigation.

Radical and quick transformations towards sustainability have winners and losers, with equity and justice embedded to a greater or a lesser extent. According to research, only the wealthiest 1-4% of the global population will radically need to change their consumption, behaviours, societal values and beliefs in order to make space for an equitable and sustainable future for nature and people. However, narratives around many 'positive' tipping points, such as the energy transition, do not take into account the entire spectrum of impacts the proposed alternatives could have or still rely on narratives that maintain current unsustainable behaviours and marginalise many people. One such example is the move from petrol-based to electric vehicles. An energy transition that remains based on natural resource inputs from the Global South must be unpacked with an equity and justice lens to understand the "true cost" of this transition. Another is the role of 'nature-based solutions' to address climate resilience, where 'nature' in some parts of the world needs to be maintained as an offset for the continued lifestyles of the wealthy, usually in different parts of the world from where this nature is supposed to be maintained. There are two arguments why a critical engagement with these and other similar proposals needs to be made. First, the idea of transitioning through a substitution (e.g., of fuel), whilst maintaining the system structure (e.g., of private vehicles) may not necessarily be conceived as the kind of radical transformation being called for by global scientific or governmental bodies like the IPCC and IPBES. Secondly, and probably more importantly, the question of positive for whom, and positive where must be considered. In this paper, we unpack these narratives in the context of what they mean for the idea of positive tipping points using a critical decolonial view from the South. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire and herbivory are competitive processes in grassy ecosystems as they both consume above‐ground biomass. Despite this interaction between fire and grazing, herbivore and fire management plans in conservation areas are usually perceived, and hence managed, independently. This study aims to demonstrate the importance of acknowledging and integrating the interdependence between herbivore and fire management.We compare average proportional area burnt during years when large‐scale culling kept herbivore biomass within a narrow range within the Kruger National Park, South Africa, against subsequent years of no culling when herbivore densities increased to effectively double the biomass. Furthermore, to improve our mechanistic understanding, we utilize natural gradients in rainfall (north to south) and grazing (distance from rivers) to test a conceptual model of how herbivory influences fire occurrence under different rainfall regimes.Fires were more prevalent during the culling period than thereafter, and the fire suppression effect of increasing grazing biomass was most pronounced in areas closer to rivers (50% reduction within 1 km of rivers).The "grazer effect" (i.e. difference between % area burnt between low and high grazer biomass years) seems to be more pronounced in arid landscapes than in semiarid landscapes, which in turn is more pronounced than in the mesic landscapes.Despite elephants being mixed feeders, elephant density influences fire occurrence more than the density of buffaloes or hippopotami.Synthesis and applications: Herbivore and fire management actions should be integrated, as events that influence herbivore densities go on to influence fire occurrence in subsequent years. In areas with 400–600 mm MAP it is particularly important because changes in herbivore numbers—due to drought, predation, disease, or human interventions—can result in switches between fire‐ and herbivore‐dominated systems, with cascading consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem function. Furthermore, grazing gradients (in this case distance to closest perennial river) are critical as it allows both fire and herbivore‐dominated systems to occur within the same system along the gradient. This increases management possibilities, as management actions that induce grazing gradients can have positive implications for maintaining biodiversity in protected areas. Herbivore and fire management actions should be integrated, as events that influence herbivore densities go on to influence fire occurrence in subsequent years. In areas with 400–600 mm MAP it is particularly important because changes in herbivore numbers—due to drought, predation, disease, or human interventions—can result in switches between fire‐ and herbivore‐dominated systems, with cascading consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem function. Furthermore, grazing gradients (in this case distance to closest perennial river) are critical as it allows both fire and herbivore‐dominated systems to occur within the same system along the gradient. This increases management possibilities, as management actions that induce grazing gradients can have positive implications for maintaining biodiversity in protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large vertebrates affect fire regimes in several ways: by consuming plant matter that would otherwise accumulate as fuel; by controlling and varying the density of vegetation; and by engineering the soil and litter layer. These processes can regulate the frequency, intensity and extent of fire. The evidence for these effects is strongest in environments with intermediate rainfall, warm temperatures and graminoid-dominated ground vegetation. Probably, extinction of Quaternary megafauna triggered increased biomass burning in many such environments. Recent and continuing declines of large vertebrates are likely to be significant contributors to changes in fire regimes and vegetation that are currently being experienced in many parts of the world. To date, rewilding projects that aim to restore large herbivores have paid little attention to the value of large animals in moderating fire regimes. Rewilding potentially offers a powerful tool for managing the risks of wildfire and its impacts on natural and human values. This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humans can alter fire dynamics in grassland systems by changing fire frequency, fire seasonality and fuel conditions. These changes have effects on vegetation structure and recovery, species composition, and ecosystem function. Understanding how human management can affect fire regimes is vital to detect potential changes in the resilience of plant communities, and to predict vegetation responses to human interventions. We evaluated the fire regimes of two recently protected areas in Madagascar (Ibity and Itremo NPA) and one in Brazil (Serra do Cipó NP) before and after livestock exclusion and fire suppression policies. We compare the pre- and post-management fire history in these areas and analyze differences in terms of total annual burned area, density of ignitions, burn scar size distribution, fire return period and seasonal fire distribution. More than 90% of total park areas were burned at least once during the studied period, for all parks. We observed a significant reduction in the number of ignitions for Ibity NPA and Serra do Cipó NP after livestock exclusion and active fire suppression, but no significant change in total burned area for each protected area. We also observed a seasonal shift in burning, with fires happening later in the fire season (October–November) after management intervention. However, the protected areas in Madagascar had shorter fire return intervals (3.23 and 1.82 years) than those in Brazil (7.91 years). Our results demonstrate that fire exclusion is unattainable, and probably unwarranted in tropical grassland conservation areas, but show how human intervention in fire and vegetation patterns can alter various aspects of the fire regimes. This information can help with formulating realistic and effective fire management policies in these valuable conservation areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pyrodiversity, which describes fire variability over space and time, is believed to increase habitat heterogeneity and thereby promote biodiversity. However, to date there is no standardised metric for quantifying pyrodiversity, and so broad geographic patterns and drivers of pyrodiversity remain unexplored. We present the first generalizable method to quantify pyrodiversity, and use it to address the fundamental questions of what drives pyrodiversity, which fire attributes constrain pyrodiversity under different conditions, and whether pyrodiversity is spatial grain‐dependent. We linked the MODIS burned area and active fire products to measure fire size, seasonal timing, return interval, and intensity for 2.2 million individual fires in sub‐Saharan Africa from 2000–2015. We then quantified pyrodiversity as a four‐dimensional hypervolume described by fire attributes within a grid cell, for any spatial grain of analysis. Environmental (rainfall, vegetation, soils, and topography) and human‐associated (cattle biomass, cropland area, and human population density) variables were assessed as potential drivers of pyrodiversity. Rainfall was the main environmental driver of pyrodiversity, with higher pyrodiversity in drier regions (< 650 mm yr–1). Pyrodiversity was not strongly associated with human‐associated variables across Africa. Rainfall and a human influence index had clear but contrasting effects on the variability of fire size, seasonal timing, return interval, and intensity. Our analyses show that fire size and seasonal timing constrain pyrodiversity in wetter regions, whereas none of the fire attributes pose a strong constraint in drier regions. We found no evidence that pyrodiversity was spatial grain‐dependent when recalculated at 5‐minute grain increments from 15 to 120 minutes. We hypothesise that the strongest positive effect of pyrodiversity on biodiversity in all its forms will occur at intermediate precipitation (650–1300 mm yr–1), where fire plays an important role in shaping vegetation structure and where pyrodiversity is still quite high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT: Poaceae (the grasses) is arguably the most successful plant family, in terms of its global occurrence in (almost) all ecosystems with angiosperms, its ecological dominance in many ecosystems, and high species richness. We suggest that the success of grasses is best understood in context of their capacity to colonize, persist, and transform environments (the “Viking syndrome”). This results from combining effective long‐distance dispersal, efficacious establishment biology, ecological flexibility, resilience to disturbance and the capacity to modify environments by changing the nature of fire and mammalian herbivory. We identify a diverse set of functional traits linked to dispersal, establishment and competitive abilities. Enhanced long‐distance dispersal is determined by anemochory, epizoochory and endozoochory and is facilitated via the spikelet (and especially the awned lemma) which functions as the dispersal unit. Establishment success could be a consequence of the precocious embryo and large starch reserves, which may underpin the extremely short generation times in grasses. Post‐establishment genetic bottlenecks may be mitigated by wind pollination and the widespread occurrence of polyploidy, in combination with gametic self‐incompatibility. The ecological competitiveness of grasses is corroborated by their dominance across the range of environmental extremes tolerated by angiosperms, facilitated by both C3 and C4 photosynthesis, well‐developed frost tolerance in several clades, and a sympodial growth form that enabled the evolution of both annual and long‐lived life forms. Finally, absence of investment in wood (except in bamboos), and the presence of persistent buds at or below ground level, provides tolerance of repeated defoliation (whether by fire, frost, drought or herbivores). Biotic modification of environments via feedbacks with herbivory or fire reinforce grass dominance leading to open ecosystems. Grasses can be both palatable and productive, fostering high biomass and diversity of mammalian herbivores. Many grasses have a suite of architectural and functional traits that facilitate frequent fire, including a tufted growth form, and tannin‐like substances in leaves which slow decomposition. We mapped these traits over the phylogeny of the Poales, spanning the grasses and their relatives, and demonstrated the accumulation of traits since monocots originated in the mid‐Cretaceous. Although the sympodial growth form is a monocot trait, tillering resulting in the tufted growth form most likely evolved within the grasses. Similarly, although an ovary apparently constructed of a single carpel evolved in the most recent grass ancestor, spikelets and the awned lemma dispersal units evolved within the grasses. Frost tolerance and C4 photosynthesis evolved relatively late (late Palaeogene), and the last significant trait to evolve was probably the production of tannins, associated with pyrophytic savannas. This fits palaeobotanical data, suggesting several phases in the grass success story: from a late Cretaceous origin, to occasional tropical grassland patches in the later Palaeogene, to extensive C3 grassy woodlands in the early–middle Miocene, to the dramatic expansion of the tropical C4 grass savannas and grasslands in the Pliocene, and the C3 steppe grasslands during the Pleistocene glacial periods. Modern grasslands depend heavily on strongly seasonal climates, making them sensitive to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Savannas are the only deciduous system where new leaf flush pre-empts the onset of suitable conditions for growth, a phenological phenomenon known as early-greening. Limited understanding of the frequency and drivers of the occurrence of early-greening in southern African savanna trees exists. We aimed to estimate the frequency of early-greening events across southern Africa and investigated potential environmental drivers of green-up. We selected and compared seven broad-leaved woodland sites where Burkea africana was a dominant species using remotely sensed data along a latitudinal gradient from South Africa to Zambia. Normalized difference vegetation index ( NDVI) values were extracted from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ( MODIS) satellite imagery at each site from January 2002 to June 2014. Using an austral year (July 1st-June 30th), early-greening was recorded if the green-up start date occurred prior to the onset date of seasonal rainfall. A latitudinal gradient of early-green-up was detected across southern Africa ( R2 = 0.74) with the two most northerly (Zambian) sites showing the earliest and most consistent green-up start dates (3 October ± 5.34 days). A strong latitudinal gradient was observed between the variability in the amount of rainfall in the first 6 months of green-up and the green-up start dates across southern Africa ( R2 = 0.92). Photoperiod appeared to play a role in areas where the onset of rainfall commenced late into the austral year. Mean maximum temperatures recorded 10 days prior to green-up start dates suggested a potential threshold of about 35°C, which could drive early-greening in the absence of rainfall. Correlations between the proportion of early-greening years and the above mentioned environmental factors indicated that rainfall variability had the strongest influence over the observed phenological gradient ( R2 = 0.96). Understanding early-greening in complex savanna systems is a vital step in furthering predictive phenological models under changing climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a research study regarding the limits of savanna on the continents of Africa, Australia, and South America. The effects of rainfall, seasonality, and soil fertility on the growth and distribution of savanna are examined, as well as the interaction of these factors with natural disturbances.

Frequent grazing can establish high forage value grazing lawns supporting high grazer densities, but can also produce overgrazed grass communities with unpalatable or low grass basal cover, supporting few grazers. Attempts to create grazing lawns via concentrated grazing, with a goal to increase grazer numbers, are thus risky without knowing how environmental conditions influence the likelihood of each outcome. We collected grass species and trait data from 33 frequently grazed grass communities across eastern South Africa (28 sites) and the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania (five sites), covering wide rainfall (336–987 mm year−1) and soil (e.g., 44%–93% sand) gradients. We identified four grass growth forms using hierarchical clustering on principal components analyses of trait data and assessed trait–environment and growth form–environment relationships using fourth corner and principal components analyses. We distinguished two palatable grass growth forms that both attract yet resist grazers and comprise grazing lawns: (1) "lateral attractors" that spread vegetatively via stolons and rhizomes, and (2) "tufted attractors" that form isolated tufts and may have alternate tall growth forms. By contrast, (3) tough, upright, tufted "resisters," and (4) "avoiders" with sparse architectures or that grow appressed to the soil surface, are of little forage value and avoided by grazers. Grazing lawns occurred across a wide range of conditions, typically comprising lateral attractor grasses in drier, sandy environments, and tufted attractor grasses in wetter, low‐sand environments. Resisters occurred on clay‐rich soils in mesic areas, while avoiders were widespread but scarce. While grazing lawns can be established under most conditions, monitoring their composition and cover is important, as the potential for overgrazing seems as widely relevant. Tufted attractor‐dominated lawns appear somewhat more vulnerable to degradation than lateral attractor‐dominated lawns. Increased avoider and resister abundance both reduce forage value, although resisters may provide better soil protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humans use combustion for heating and cooking, managing lands, and, more recently, for fuelling the industrial economy. As a shift to fossil-fuel-based energy occurs, we expect that anthropogenic biomass burning in open landscapes will decline as it becomes less fundamental to energy acquisition and livelihoods. Using global data on both fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions, we tested this relationship over a 14 year period (1997-2010). The global average annual carbon emissions from biomass burning during this time were 2.2 Pg C per year (+0.3 s.d.), approximately one-third of fossil fuel emissions over the same period (7.3 Pg C, +0.8 s.d.). There was a significant inverse relationship between average annual fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions. Fossil fuel emissions explained 8% of the variation in biomass burning emissions at a global scale, but this varied substantially by land cover. For example, fossil fuel burning explained 31% of the variation in biomass burning in woody savannas, butwas a non-significant predictor for evergreen needleleaf forests. In the land covers most dominated by human use, croplands and urban areas, fossil fuel emissions were more than 30- and 500- fold greater than biomass burning emissions. This relationship suggests that combustion practices may be shifting from open landscape burning to contained combustion for industrial purposes, and highlights the need to take into account howhumans appropriate combustion in global modelling of contemporary fire. Industrialized combustion is not only an important driver of atmospheric change, but also an important driver of landscape change through companion declines in human-started fires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With open‐access publishing authors often pay an article processing charge and subsequently their article is freely available online. These charges are beyond the reach of most African academics. Thus, the trend towards open‐access publishing will shift the business model from a pay‐wall model, where access to literature is limited, to a pay‐to‐publish one, where African scholars cannot afford to publish. We explore the costs of publishing and the ability of African scholars to afford to publish via open access in top journals. Three‐quarters of the 40 top ecology journals required payment for open‐access publishing (average cost $3150). Paying such fees is a hardship for African scholars as grant funding is not available and it is not feasible to pay the fees themselves as salaries are low. We encourage funders and publishers to facilitate an equitable publishing model that allows African scholars to make their research available through open‐access publishing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving our ability to manage complex, rapidly changing social-ecological systems is one of the defining challenges of the 21st century. This is particularly crucial if large-scale poverty alleviation is to be secured without undermining the capacity of the environment to support future generations. To address this challenge, strategies that enable judicious management of socialecological systems in the face of substantive uncertainty are needed. Several such strategies are emerging from the developing body of work on complexity and resilience. We identify and discuss four strategies, providing practical examples of how each strategy has been applied in innovative ways to manage turbulent social-ecological change in South Africa and the broader region: (1) employ adaptive management or comanagement, (2) engage and integrate different perspectives, (3) facilitate self-organization, and (4) set safe boundaries to avoid system thresholds. Through these examples we aim to contribute a basis for further theoretical development, new teaching examples, and inspiration for developing innovative new management strategies in other regions that can help address the considerable sustainability challenges facing society globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant species are shifting their ranges in response to global climate change, thus intensifying the need to predict such changes accurately. As the environmental requirements controlling plant distribution act differently at each developmental stage, there is a need to acquire a demographic-specific understanding of the factors which determine these distributions. Here we investigated the germination niche of two common savanna species Acacia nigrescens and Colophospermum mopane, with the aims to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of temperature on seed germination and establishment and to explore the impact of higher temperatures on the establishment success of savanna trees. Under laboratory conditions, we used thermal gradient plates to determine the thermal germination niche of both species, and a water stress experiment was conducted on C. mopane to account for water-temperature interactions. Using these data we parameterised a soil-moisture model to determine germination and establishment success under field conditions at current and future temperatures (+4 °C). Based on this model, higher future temperatures will not limit germination directly, but they will reduce the number of germination events by reducing the time window of suitable available soil water. Conversely, warmer conditions will accelerate the rate of radicle extension and increase the frequency of seedling establishment events. An additional advantage of higher temperatures is that fewer seeds will germinate, resulting in slower seed bank depletion when successful seedling establishment events do occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Many species are adapted to a particular fire regime and major deviations from that regime may lead to localized extinction. Here, we quantify immaturity risks to an obligate‐seeder forest tree using an objectively designed climate model ensemble and a probabilistic fire regime simulator to predict future fire regimes. Location: Alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis) distribution, Victoria, south‐eastern Australia. Methods: We used a fire regime model (FROST) with six climate projections from a climate model ensemble across 3.7 million hectares of native forest and non‐native vegetation to examine immaturity risks to obligate‐seeder forests dominated by alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), which has a primary juvenile period of approximately 20 years. Our models incorporated current and future projected climate including fuel feedbacks to simulate fire regimes over 100 years. We then used Random Forest modelling to evaluate which spatial characteristics of the landscape were associated with high immaturity risks to alpine ash forest patches. Results: Significant shifts to the fire regime were predicted under all six future climate projections. Increases in both wildfire extent (total area burnt, area burnt at high intensity) and frequency were predicted with an average increase of up to 110 hectares burnt annually by short‐interval fires (i.e., within the expected minimum time to reproductive maturity). The immaturity risk posed by short‐interval fires to alpine ash forest patches was well explained by Random Forest models and varied with both location and environmental variables. Main conclusions: Alpine ash forests are predicted to be burned at greater intensities and shorter intervals under future fire regimes. About 67% of the current alpine ash distribution was predicted to be at some level of immaturity risk over the 100‐year modelling period, with the greatest risks to those patches located on the periphery of the current distribution, closer to roads or surrounded by a drier landscape at lower elevations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Wildfires increasingly create large high‐severity patches with interior areas far from less disturbed habitats. We evaluated how these trends impact bird communities by investigating the effect of internal distance from lower‐severity areas, high‐severity patch size, and years since fire on avian alpha and beta diversity. Location: Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Methods: Bird occurrence data were collected during 2009–2017 within high‐severity patches of 27 wildfires representing 1–30 years since disturbance. A two‐step multispecies occupancy method was used to account for imperfect detection of 94 species and estimate effects of patch characteristics on community richness and dissimilarity. Results: Community richness decreased with distance from patch edge and with patch size. Richness increased with years since fire, but this pattern was dependent on distance from edge with higher peak richness (23 species) near edges than interiors (18 species). Community dissimilarity was not associated with distance, indicating that large high‐severity patch interiors contain subsets of, rather than complements to, edge communities. Dissimilarity peaked later with increasing patch size. Guild richness of tree and primary cavity nesters was negatively associated with distance and patch size. Richness of ground and shrub nesters was insensitive to distance, while shrub nester richness increased somewhat with patch size. Due to declines among other species, ground and shrub nesters made up a greater percentage of the avian community within the interiors of large high‐severity patches. Main conclusions: As fire activity increases due to accumulating forest fuels and accelerating climate change, high‐severity patches and their resulting early‐seral habitats are becoming more extensive with less edge and more interior area. Such changes are likely to decrease avian diversity locally and shift community composition away from forest‐associated species. Management actions that promote the full range of fire effects but limit high‐severity patch size may best conserve bird diversity within fire‐adapted ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To understand the geographical distribution of grasses in sub-Saharan Africa with reference to key plant traits thought to affect range size in this family (Poaceae). Specifically, to test hypotheses on the importance of plant height and lifespan in determining range size and invasion potential in the context of their evolutionary history. Location: Sub-Saharan Africa. Taxon: Poaceae. Methods: The range sizes of 757 grass species native to southern Africa were estimated for the sub-Saharan African region from geo-referenced herbarium records using the alpha hull function. Phylogenetic generalised least squares models and linear mixed effects models were fitted to test whether grass range size was related to plant height and lifespan. Tribe-level relationships between range size and plant height were assessed with linear models. For species introduced to other continents, generalised linear mixed effects models were fitted to test whether invasiveness was related to native range size, plant height and lifespan. Differences in native range size among species in four invasion-related categories were assessed with linear mixed effects models. Results: Grass range sizes are larger for taller species and for species with shorter lifespans. The relationship between plant height and range size varies widely among tribes, with some range-restricted tribes having a non-significant effect on plant height. Grasses with larger native range sizes and shorter lifespans are more likely to become invasive after being introduced to other continents. Grass species introduced to other continents have larger native range sizes than those that have not, and native range size increases along the introduced-naturalised-invasive continuum. Main conclusions: The increased dispersal opportunities of annual-biannual grasses appear to have a greater positive effect on range size than do the longer generation times of perennial grasses. Grass height has and continues to be an important driver of grass biogeography, with implications for understanding the spread of certain grass tribes over the Miocene. Factors that promote large native range sizes are also likely to increase the probability of a species becoming invasive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydraulic failure caused by severe drought contributes to aboveground dieback and whole‐plant death. The extent to which dieback or whole‐plant death can be predicted by plant hydraulic traits has rarely been tested among species with different leaf habits and/or growth forms. We investigated 19 hydraulic traits in 40 woody species in a tropical savanna and their potential correlations with drought response during an extreme drought event during the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in 2015. Plant hydraulic trait variation was partitioned substantially by leaf habit but not growth form along a trade‐off axis between traits that support drought tolerance versus avoidance. Semi‐deciduous species and shrubs had the highest branch dieback and top‐kill (complete aboveground death) among the leaf habits or growth forms. Dieback and top‐kill were well explained by combining hydraulic traits with leaf habit and growth form, suggesting integrating life history traits with hydraulic traits will yield better predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The need for accurate quantification of the amount of carbon stored in the environment has never been greater. Carbon sequestration has become a vital component of the battle against global climate change, and monitoring and quantifying this process are major challenges for policymakers. Plant allometric equations allow managers and scientists to quantify the biomass contained in a tree without cutting it down, and therefore can play a pivotal role in measuring carbon sequestration in forests and savannahs. These equations have been available since the beginning of the 20th century, but their usefulness depends on the ability to estimate the error associated with the equations - something which has received scant attention in the past. This paper provides a method based on the theory of linear regression and the lognormal distribution to derive confidence limits for estimates of biomass derived from plant allometric equations. Allometric equations for several southern African savannah species are provided, as well as the parameters and equations required to calculate the confidence intervals. This method was applied to data collected from a sampling campaign carried out in a savannah landscape at the Skukuza flux site, Kruger National Park, South Africa. Here the error was 10% of the total site biomass for the woody biomass and 2% for the leaf biomass. When the data were split into individual plots and used to estimate site biomass (as would occur in most sampling schemes) the error increased to 16% and 12% of the woody and leaf biomasses, respectively, as the sampling errors were added to the errors in the allometric equation. These methods can be used in any discipline that applies allometric equations, such as health sciences and animal physiology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the highlights of a workshop about bud banks and below-ground plant organs held in Sao Paulo, Brazil in May 2019. Topics discussed include the significant role of below-ground structures in regeneration strategies of plant communities following disturbances, the resilience of South African grasslands and savannas to disturbances, and the management and conservation of ecosystems.

In this study, we use simulations from seven global vegetation models to provide the first multi‐model estimate of fire impacts on global tree cover and the carbon cycle under current climate and anthropogenic land use conditions, averaged for the years 2001–2012. Fire globally reduces the tree covered area and vegetation carbon storage by 10%. Regionally, the effects are much stronger, up to 20% for certain latitudinal bands, and 17% in savanna regions. Global fire effects on total carbon storage and carbon turnover times are lower with the effect on gross primary productivity (GPP) close to 0. We find the strongest impacts of fire in savanna regions. Climatic conditions in regions with the highest burned area differ from regions with highest absolute fire impact, which are characterized by higher precipitation. Our estimates of fire‐induced vegetation change are lower than previous studies. We attribute these differences to different definitions of vegetation change and effects of anthropogenic land use, which were not considered in previous studies and decreases the impact of fire on tree cover. Accounting for fires significantly improves the spatial patterns of simulated tree cover, which demonstrates the need to represent fire in dynamic vegetation models. Based upon comparisons between models and observations, process understanding and representation in models, we assess a higher confidence in the fire impact on tree cover and vegetation carbon compared to GPP, total carbon storage and turnover times. We have higher confidence in the spatial patterns compared to the global totals of the simulated fire impact. As we used an ensemble of state‐of‐the‐art fire models, including effects of land use and the ensemble median or mean compares better to observational datasets than any individual model, we consider the here presented results to be the current best estimate of global fire effects on ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global fire-vegetation models are widely used to assess impacts of environmental change on fire regimes and the carbon cycle and to infer relationships between climate, land use and fire. However, differences in model structure and parameterizations, in both the vegetation and fire components of these models, could influence overall model performance, and to date there has been limited evaluation of how well different models represent various aspects of fire regimes. The Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) is coordinating the evaluation of state-of-the-art global fire models, in order to improve projections of fire characteristics and fire impacts on ecosystems and human societies in the context of global environmental change. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of historical simulations made by nine FireMIP models to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. The FireMIP models simulate a wide range in global annual total burnt area (39–536 Mha) and global annual fire carbon emission (0.91–4.75 Pg C yr -1) for modern conditions (2002–2012), but most of the range in burnt area is within observational uncertainty (345–468 Mha). Benchmarking scores indicate that seven out of nine FireMIP models are able to represent the spatial pattern in burnt area. The models also reproduce the seasonality in burnt area reasonably well but struggle to simulate fire season length and are largely unable to represent interannual variations in burnt area. However, models that represent cropland fires see improved simulation of fire seasonality in the Northern Hemisphere. The three FireMIP models which explicitly simulate individual fires are able to reproduce the spatial pattern in number of fires, but fire sizes are too small in key regions, and this results in an underestimation of burnt area. The correct representation of spatial and seasonal patterns in vegetation appears to correlate with a better representation of burnt area. The two older fire models included in the FireMIP ensemble (LPJ–GUESS–GlobFIRM, MC2) clearly perform less well globally than other models, but it is difficult to distinguish between the remaining ensemble members; some of these models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime; none clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]