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1. Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2018

Author: Bhattacharjee, NV, Schaeffer, LE, Hay, SI, Lu, D, Schipp, MF, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Donkers, KM, Abady, GG, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abebo, ZH, Abejie, AN, Abosetugn, AE, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Abushouk, AI, Adamu, AL, Adedeji, IA, Adegbosin, AE, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Agudelo-Botero, M, Aji, B, Akinyemi, OO, Alamneh, AA, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, J, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Alemu, BW, Alhassan, RK, Ali, BA, Ali, S, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Amit, AML, Amugsi, DA, Anbesu, EW, Ancuceanu, R, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Anvari, D, Arabloo, J, Arora, A, Artanti, KD, Asemahagn, MA, Asmare, WN, Atout, MMW, Ausloos, M, Awoke, N, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Ayza, MA, Azene, ZN, Darshan, BB, Badiye, AD, Baig, AA, Bakkannavar, SM, Banach, M, Banik, PC, Bärnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bayati, M, Baye, BA, Bedi, N, Belay, SA, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhandari, D, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Birhan, TA, Birihane, BM, Bitew, ZW, Bohlouli, S, Bohluli, M, Bojia, HA, Boloor, A, Brady, OJ, Bragazzi, NL, Brunoni, AR, Budhathoki, SS, Nagaraja, SB, Butt, ZA, Cárdenas, R, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castro, F, Cernigliaro, A, Charan, J, Chatterjee, P, Chatterjee, S, Chattu, VK, Chaturvedi, S, Chowdhury, MAK, Chu, D-T, Collison, ML, Cook, AJ, Cork, MA, Couto, RAS, Dagnew, B, Dai, H, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daneshpajouhnejad, P, Darwesh, AM, Darwish, AH, Daryani, A, Das, JK, Gupta, RD, Dávila-Cervantes, CA, Davis, AC, Weaver, ND, Denova-Gutiérrez, E, Deribe, K, Desalew, A, Deshpande, A, Dessie, A, Deuba, K, Dharmaratne, SD, Dhimal, M, Dhungana, GP, Diaz, D, Didarloo, A, Dipeolu, IO, Doan, LP, Duko, B, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Zaki, MES, Tantawi, ME, Elema, TB, Elhabashy, HR, El-Jaafary, SI, Faris, PS, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Feigin, VL, Feleke, BE, Ferede, TY, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Franklin, RC, Gad, MM, Gaidhane, S, Gardner, WM, Geberemariyam, BS, Gebregiorgis, BG, Gebremedhin, KB, Gebremichael, B, Ghaffarpasand, F, Gilani, SA, Ginindza, TG, Glagn, M, Golechha, M, Gonfa, KB, Goulart, BNG, Gudi, N, Guido, D, Guled, RA, Guo, Y, Hamidi, S, Handiso, DW, Hasaballah, AI, Hassan, A, Hayat, K, Hegazy, MI, Heidari, B, Henry, NJ, Herteliu, C, de, Hidru, HD, Ho, HC, Hoang, CL, Holla, R, Hon, J, Hosseini, M, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Hsairi, M, Hu, G, Huda, TM, Hwang, B-F, Ibitoye, SE, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, IM, Ilic, MD, Inbaraj, LR, Iqbal, U, Irvani, SSN, Islam, MM, Iwu, CCD, Iwu, CJ, Jain, A, Janodia, MD, Javaheri, T, John-Akinola, YO, Johnson, KB, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, JJ, Kabir, A, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Kamath, A, Kamyari, N, Kanchan, OT, Kapoor, N, Matin, BK, Karimi, SE, Kasaye, HK, Kassahun, G, Kassebaum, NJ, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Keiyoro, PN, Kelkay, B, Khalid, N, Khan, MN, Khatab, K, Khater, AM, Khater, MM, Khatib, MN, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kinyoki, DK, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Kosen, S, Krishan, K, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Kumar, N, Kumar, P, Kurmi, OP, Kusuma, D, Vecchia, CL, Lad, SD, Lami, FH, Landires, I, Lansingh, VC, Lasrado, S, Lee, PH, LeGrand, KE, Letourneau, ID, Lewycka, S, Li, B, Li, M-C, Li, S, Liu, X, Lodha, R, Lopez, JCF, Louie, C, Machado, DB, Maled, V, Maleki, S, Malta, DC, Mamun, AA, Manafi, N, Mansournia, MA, Mapoma, CC, Marczak, LB, Martins-Melo, FR, Mehndiratta, MM, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Mekonnen, TC, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mengesha, EW, Mersha, AM, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Misra, S, Moghadaszadeh, M, Mohammad, DK, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammed, JA, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Montero-Zamora, PA, Moradi, M, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Khaneghah, AM, Munro, SB, Muriithi, MK, Mustafa, G, Muthupandian, S, Nagarajan, AJ, Naik, G, Naimzada, MD, Nangia, V, Nascimento, BR, Nayak, VC, Ndejjo, R, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Nguefack-Tsague, G, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, DN, Nguyen, HLT, Nigussie, SN, Nigussie, TTN, Nikbakhsh, R, Nnaji, CA, Nunez-Samudio, V, Oancea, B, Oghenetega, OB, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Omer, MO, Onwujekwe, OE, Ortega-Altamirano, DV, Osgood-Zimmerman, AE, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, SS, Owolabi, MO, Mahesh, PA, Padubidri, JR, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pandi-Perumal, SR, Pangaribuan, HU, Parsekar, SS, Pasupula, DK, Patel, UK, Pathak, A, Pathak, M, Pattanshetty, SM, Patton, GC, Paulos, K, Pepito, VCF, Pickering, BV, Pinheiro, M, Piwoz, EG, Pokhrel, KN, Pourjafar, H, Prada, SI, Pribadi, DRA, Syed, ZQ, Rabiee, M, Rabiee, N, Rahim, F, Rahimzadeh, S, Rahman, A, Rahman, MHU, Rahmani, AM, Rai, RK, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, SJ, Rastogi, P, Rathi, P, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawassizadeh, R, Rawat, R, Regassa, LD, Rego, MAS, Reiner, RC, Reshmi, B, Rezapour, A, Ribeiro, AI, Rickard, J, Roever, L, Rumisha, SF, Rwegerera, GM, Sagar, R, Sajadi, SM, Salem, MR, Samy, AM, Santric-Milicevic, MM, Saraswathy, SYI, Sarker, AR, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Saxena, D, Sbarra, AN, Sengupta, D, Senthilkumaran, S, Sha, F, Shafaat, O, Shaheen, AA, Shaikh, MA, Shalash, AS, Shannawaz, M, Sheikh, A, Shetty, BSK, Shetty, RS, Shibuya, K, Shiferaw, WS, Shin, JI, Silva, DAS, Singh, NP, Singh, P, Singh, S, Sintayehu, Y, Skryabin, VY, Skryabina, AA, Soheili, A, Soltani, S, Sorrie, MB, Spurlock, EE, Steuben, KM, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Swartz, SJ, Tadesse, EG, Tamiru, AT, Tapak, L, Tareque, MI, Tarigan, IU, Tesema, GA, Tesfay, FH, Teshome, A, Tessema, ZT, Thankappan, KR, Thapar, R, Thomas, N, Topor-Madry, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Traini, E, Tran, BX, Truong, PN, Tsegaye, BTBT, Ullah, I, Umeokonkwo, CD, Unnikrishnan, B, Upadhyay, E, Uzochukwu, BSC, VanderHeide, JD, Violante, FS, Vo, B, Wado, YD, Waheed, Y, Wamai, RG, Wang, F, Wang, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wickramasinghe, ND, Wiens, KE, Wiysonge, CS, Woyczynski, L, Wu, A-M, Wu, C, Yamada, T, Yaya, S, Yeshaneh, A, Yeshaw, Y, Yeshitila, YG, Yilma, MT, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yosef, T, Younis, MZ, Yousuf, AY, Yu, C, Yu, Y, Yuce, D, Zafar, S, Zaidi, SS, Zaki, L, Zakzuk, J, Zamanian, M, Zar, HJ, Zastrozhin, MS, Zastrozhina, A, Zelellw, DA, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z-J, Zhao, X-JG, Zodpey, S, Zuniga, YMH, Local Burden of Disease Exclusive Breastfeeding Collaborators, Bhattacharjee, Natalia V, Schaeffer, Lauren E, Hay, Simon I, Duko, Bereket, Yeshaw, Yigizie, Local Burden of Disease Exclusive Breastfeeding Collaborators, Bhattacharjee N.V., Schaeffer L.E., Hay S.I., Lu D., Schipp M.F., Lazzar-Atwood A., Donkers K.M., Abady G.G., Abd-Allah F., Abdelalim A., Abebo Z.H., Abejie A.N., Abosetugn A.E., Abreu L.G., Abrigo M.R.M., Abu-Gharbieh E., Abushouk A.I., Adamu A.L., Adedeji I.A., Adegbosin A.E., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Agudelo-Botero M., Aji B., Akinyemi O.O., Alamneh A.A., Alanezi F.M., Alanzi T.M., Albright J., Alcalde-Rabanal J.E., Alemu B.W., Alhassan R.K., Ali B.A., Ali S., Alinia C., Alipour V., Amit A.M.L., Amugsi D.A., Anbesu E.W., Ancuceanu R., Anjomshoa M., Ansari F., Antonio C.A.T., Anvari D., Arabloo J., Arora A., Artanti K.D., Asemahagn M.A., Asmare W.N., Atout M.M.W., Ausloos M., Awoke N., Quintanilla B.P.A., Ayanore M.A., Aynalem Y.A., Ayza M.A., Azene Z.N., Darshan B.B., Badiye A.D., Baig A.A., Bakkannavar S.M., Banach M., Banik P.C., Barnighausen T.W., Basaleem H., Bayati M., Baye B.A., Bedi N., Belay S.A., Bhagavathula A.S., Bhandari D., Bhardwaj N., Bhardwaj P., Bhutta Z.A., Bijani A., Birhan T.A., Birihane B.M., Bitew Z.W., Bohlouli S., Bohluli M., Bojia H.A., Boloor A., Brady O.J., Bragazzi N.L., Brunoni A.R., Budhathoki S.S., Nagaraja S.B., Butt Z.A., Cardenas R., Castaldelli-Maia J.M., Castro F., Cernigliaro A., Charan J., Chatterjee P., Chatterjee S., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi S., Chowdhury M.A.K., Chu D.-T., Collison M.L., Cook A.J., Cork M.A., Couto R.A.S., Dagnew B., Dai H., Dandona L., Dandona R., Daneshpajouhnejad P., Darwesh A.M., Darwish A.H., Daryani A., Das J.K., Gupta R.D., Davila-Cervantes C.A., Davis A.C., Weaver N.D., Denova-Gutierrez E., Deribe K., Desalew A., Deshpande A., Dessie A., Deuba K., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Dhungana G.P., Diaz D., Didarloo A., Dipeolu I.O., Doan L.P., Duko B., Duraes A.R., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Earl L., Zaki M.E.S., Tantawi M.E., Elema T.B., Elhabashy H.R., El-Jaafary S.I., Faris P.S., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Feleke B.E., Ferede T.Y., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Franklin R.C., Gad M.M., Gaidhane S., Gardner W.M., Geberemariyam B.S., Gebregiorgis B.G., Gebremedhin K.B., Gebremichael B., Ghaffarpasand F., Gilani S.A., Ginindza T.G., Glagn M., Golechha M., Gonfa K.B., Goulart B.N.G., Gudi N., Guido D., Guled R.A., Guo Y., Hamidi S., Handiso D.W., Hasaballah A.I., Hassan A., Hayat K., Hegazy M.I., Heidari B., Henry N.J., Herteliu C., de Hidru H.D., Ho H.C., Hoang C.L., Holla R., Hon J., Hosseini M., Hosseinzadeh M., Househ M., Hsairi M., Hu G., Huda T.M., Hwang B.-F., Ibitoye S.E., Ilesanmi O.S., Ilic I.M., Ilic M.D., Inbaraj L.R., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Islam M.M., Iwu C.C.D., Iwu C.J., Jain A., Janodia M.D., Javaheri T., John-Akinola Y.O., Johnson K.B., Joukar F., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir A., Kalankesh L.R., Kalhor R., Kamath A., Kamyari N., Kanchan O.T., Kapoor N., Matin B.K., Karimi S.E., Kasaye H.K., Kassahun G., Kassebaum N.J., Kayode G.A., Karyani A.K., Keiyoro P.N., Kelkay B., Khalid N., Khan M.N., Khatab K., Khater A.M., Khater M.M., Khatib M.N., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinyoki D.K., Kisa A., Kisa S., Kosen S., Krishan K., Kulkarni V., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kumar N., Kumar P., Kurmi O.P., Kusuma D., Vecchia C.L., Lad S.D., Lami F.H., Landires I., Lansingh V.C., Lasrado S., Lee P.H., LeGrand K.E., Letourneau I.D., Lewycka S., Li B., Li M.-C., Li S., Liu X., Lodha R., Lopez J.C.F., Louie C., Machado D.B., Maled V., Maleki S., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manafi N., Mansournia M.A., Mapoma C.C., Marczak L.B., Martins-Melo F.R., Mehndiratta M.M., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Mekonnen T.C., Mendoza W., Menezes R.G., Mengesha E.W., Mersha A.M., Miller T.R., Mini G.K., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misra S., Moghadaszadeh M., Mohammad D.K., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammed J.A., Mohammed S., Mokdad A.H., Montero-Zamora P.A., Moradi M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Mosser J.F., Mousavi S.M., Khaneghah A.M., Munro S.B., Muriithi M.K., Mustafa G., Muthupandian S., Nagarajan A.J., Naik G., Naimzada M.D., Nangia V., Nascimento B.R., Nayak V.C., Ndejjo R., Ndwandwe D.E., Negoi I., Nguefack-Tsague G., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen D.N., Nguyen H.L.T., Nigussie S.N., Nigussie T.T.N., Nikbakhsh R., Nnaji C.A., Nunez-Samudio V., Oancea B., Oghenetega O.B., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Omer M.O., Onwujekwe O.E., Ortega-Altamirano D.V., Osgood-Zimmerman A.E., Otstavnov N., Otstavnov S.S., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Padubidri J.R., Pana A., Pandey A., Pandi-Perumal S.R., Pangaribuan H.U., Parsekar S.S., Pasupula D.K., Patel U.K., Pathak A., Pathak M., Pattanshetty S.M., Patton G.C., Paulos K., Pepito V.C.F., Pickering B.V., Pinheiro M., Piwoz E.G., Pokhrel K.N., Pourjafar H., Prada S.I., Pribadi D.R.A., Syed Z.Q., Rabiee M., Rabiee N., Rahim F., Rahimzadeh S., Rahman A., Rahman M.H.U., Rahmani A.M., Rai R.K., Ranabhat C.L., Rao S.J., Rastogi P., Rathi P., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Rawassizadeh R., Rawat R., Regassa L.D., Rego M.A.S., Reiner R.C., Reshmi B., Rezapour A., Ribeiro A.I., Rickard J., Roever L., Rumisha S.F., Rwegerera G.M., Sagar R., Sajadi S.M., Salem M.R., Samy A.M., Santric-Milicevic M.M., Saraswathy S.Y.I., Sarker A.R., Sartorius B., Sathian B., Saxena D., Sbarra A.N., Sengupta D., Senthilkumaran S., Sha F., Shafaat O., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shalash A.S., Shannawaz M., Sheikh A., Shetty B.S.K., Shetty R.S., Shibuya K., Shiferaw W.S., Shin J.I., Silva D.A.S., Singh N.P., Singh P., Singh S., Sintayehu Y., Skryabin V.Y., Skryabina A.A., Soheili A., Soltani S., Sorrie M.B., Spurlock E.E., Steuben K.M., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Swartz S.J., Tadesse E.G., Tamiru A.T., Tapak L., Tareque M.I., Tarigan I.U., Tesema G.A., Tesfay F.H., Teshome A., Tessema Z.T., Thankappan K.R., Thapar R., Thomas N., Topor-Madry R., Tovani-Palone M.R., Traini E., Tran B.X., Truong P.N., Tsegaye B.T.B.T., Ullah I., Umeokonkwo C.D., Unnikrishnan B., Upadhyay E., Uzochukwu B.S.C., VanderHeide J.D., Violante F.S., Vo B., Wado Y.D., Waheed Y., Wamai R.G., Wang F., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wickramasinghe N.D., Wiens K.E., Wiysonge C.S., Woyczynski L., Wu A.-M., Wu C., Yamada T., Yaya S., Yeshaneh A., Yeshaw Y., Yeshitila Y.G., Yilma M.T., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yosef T., Younis M.Z., Yousuf A.Y., Yu C., Yu Y., Yuce D., Zafar S., Zaidi S.S., Zaki L., Zakzuk J., Zamanian M., Zar H.J., Zastrozhin M.S., Zastrozhina A., Zelellw D.A., Zhang Y., Zhang Z.-J., Zhao X.-J.G., Zodpey S., Zuniga Y.M.H., Collaborators, Local Burden of Disease Exclusive Breastfeeding, and Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto
Subjects: RJ101, Psychological intervention, Breastfeeding, Social Sciences, geography, Behavioral Neuroscience, 0302 clinical medicine, RA0421, Prevalence, Psychology, policy making, 030212 general & internal medicine, Policy Making, humans, media_common, CHILD GROWTH FAILURE, Developing world, 0303 health sciences, education.field_of_study, Psychology, Biological, Geography, Psychology, Experimental, Health Status Disparitie, Multidisciplinary Sciences, Breast Feeding, breast feeding, Scale (social sciences), Science & Technology - Other Topics, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Human, AFRICA, Social Psychology, Inequality, spatial analysis, media_common.quotation_subject, public policy, Population, prevalence, Public policy, Developing country, Experimental and Cognitive Psychology, Public Policy, Local Burden of Disease Exclusive Breastfeeding Collaborators, Article, Developing Countrie, 03 medical and health sciences, Environmental health, Humans, Nutrition disorders, education, Developing Countries, 030304 developmental biology, Spatial Analysis, Science & Technology, Neurosciences, Health Status Disparities, developing countries, health status disparities, Risk factors, Neurosciences & Neurology, Breast feeding
Abstract: Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)—giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life—is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030., Bhattacharjee and Schaeffer et al. map exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) in 94 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), finding increased EBF practice and reduced subnational variation across the majority of LMICs from 2000 to 2018. However, only six LMICs will meet WHO’s target of ≥70% EBF by 2030 nationally, and only three will achieve this in all districts.
Published: 2021

2. Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10–24 years, 1950–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author: Collaborators, GAM, Ward, JL, Azzopardi, PS, Francis, KL, Santelli, JS, Skirbekk, V, Sawyer, SM, Kassebaum, NJ, Mokdad, AH, Hay, SI, Abd-Allah, F, Abdoli, A, Abdollahi, M, Abedi, A, Abolhassani, H, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Abushouk, AI, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adham, D, Advani, SM, Afshari, K, Agrawal, A, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, AE, Aji, B, Akombi-Inyang, B, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Alemu, BW, Al-Hajj, S, Alhassan, RK, Ali, S, Alicandro, G, Alijanzadeh, M, Aljunid, SM, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Almasri, NA, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Alonso, J, Al-Raddadi, RM, Altirkawi, KA, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Aminorroaya, A, Amit, AML, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Ansari, F, Ansari, I, Antonio, CAT, Anvari, D, Anwer, R, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Ärnlöv, J, Asaad, M, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asadi-Pooya, AA, Atout, MMW, Ausloos, M, Avenyo, EK, Avila-Burgos, L, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayano, G, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Azene, ZN, Bakhshaei, MH, Bakkannavar, SM, Banach, M, Banik, PC, Barboza, MA, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Basu, S, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Bekuma, TT, Bell, AW, Bell, ML, Benjet, C, Bensenor, IM, Berhe, AK, Berhe, K, Berman, AE, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Biondi, A, Birhanu, TTM, Biswas, RK, Bohlouli, S, Bolla, SR, Boloor, A, Borschmann, R, Boufous, S, Bragazzi, NL, Braithwaite, D, Breitborde, NJK, Brenner, H, Britton, GB, Burns, RA, Nagaraja, SB, Butt, ZA, dos Santos, FLC, Cámera, LA, Campos-Nonato, IR, Rincon, JCC, Cárdenas, R, Carreras, G, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Castelpietra, G, Catalá-López, F, Cerin, E, Chandan, JS, Chang, H-Y, Chang, J-C, Charan, J, Chattu, VK, Chaturvedi, S, Choi, J-YJ, Chowdhury, MAK, Christopher, DJ, Chu, D-T, Chung, MT, Chung, S-C, Cicuttini, FM, Constantin, TV, Costa, VM, Dahlawi, SMA, Dai, H, Dai, X, Damiani, G, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daneshpajouhnejad, P, Darwesh, AM, Dávila-Cervantes, CA, Davletov, K, De la Hoz, FP, De Leo, D, Dervenis, N, Desai, R, Desalew, A, Deuba, K, Dharmaratne, SD, Dhungana, GP, Dianatinasab, M, da Silva, DD, Diaz, D, Didarloo, A, Djalalinia, S, Dorostkar, F, Doshi, CP, Doshmangir, L, Doyle, KE, Duraes, AR, Kalan, ME, Ebtehaj, S, Edvardsson, D, Tantawi, ME, Elgendy, IY, El-Jaafary, SI, Elsharkawy, A, Eshrati, B, Eskandarieh, S, Esmaeilnejad, S, Esmaeilzadeh, F, Esteghamati, S, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Fattahi, N, Feigin, VL, Ferede, TY, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Ferrara, P, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fisher, JL, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Fomenkov, AA, Foroutan, M, Fukumoto, T, Gad, MM, Gaidhane, AM, Gallus, S, Gebre, T, Gebremedhin, KB, Gebremeskel, GG, Gebremeskel, L, Gebreslassie, AA, Gesesew, HA, Ghadiri, K, Ghafourifard, M, Ghamari, F, Ghashghaee, A, Gilani, SA, Gnedovskaya, EV, Godinho, MA, Golechha, M, Goli, S, Gona, 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M., Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Ward J.L., Azzopardi P.S., Francis K.L., Santelli J.S., Skirbekk V., Sawyer S.M., Kassebaum N.J., Mokdad A.H., Hay S.I., Abd-Allah F., Abdoli A., Abdollahi M., Abedi A., Abolhassani H., Abreu L.G., Abrigo M.R.M., Abu-Gharbieh E., Abushouk A.I., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Adham D., Advani S.M., Afshari K., Agrawal A., Ahmad T., Ahmadi K., Ahmed A.E., Aji B., Akombi-Inyang B., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alanezi F.M., Alanzi T.M., Alcalde-Rabanal J.E., Alemu B.W., Al-Hajj S., Alhassan R.K., Ali S., Alicandro G., Alijanzadeh M., Aljunid S.M., Almasi-Hashiani A., Almasri N.A., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Alonso J., Al-Raddadi R.M., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini S., Aminorroaya A., Amit A.M.L., Amugsi D.A., Ancuceanu R., Anderlini D., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Ansari 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Moraga, P, Morrison, S, Mosapour, A, Mousavi Khaneghah, A, Mueller, U, Muriithi, M, Murray, C, Muthupandian, S, Naderi, M, Nagarajan, A, Naghavi, M, Naimzada, M, Nangia, V, Nayak, V, Nazari, J, Ndejjo, R, Negoi, I, Negoi, R, Netsere, H, Nguefack-Tsague, G, Nguyen, D, Nguyen, H, Nie, J, Ningrum, D, Nnaji, C, Nomura, S, Noubiap, J, Nowak, C, Nunez-Samudio, V, Ogbo, F, Oghenetega, O, Oh, I, Oladnabi, M, Olagunju, A, Olusanya, B, Olusanya, J, Omar Bali, A, Omer, M, Onwujekwe, O, Ortiz, A, Otoiu, A, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, S, Overland, S, Owolabi, M, P A, M, Padubidri, J, Pakshir, K, Palladino, R, Pana, A, Panda-Jonas, S, Pandey, A, Panelo, C, Park, E, Patten, S, Peden, A, Pepito, V, Peprah, E, Pereira, J, Pesudovs, K, Pham, H, Phillips, M, Piradov, M, Pirsaheb, M, Postma, M, Pottoo, F, Pourjafar, H, Pourshams, A, Prada, S, Pupillo, E, Quazi Syed, Z, Rabiee, M, Rabiee, N, Radfar, A, Rafiee, A, Raggi, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Ramezanzadeh, K, Ranabhat, C, Rao, S, Rashedi, V, Rastogi, P, Rathi, P, Rawaf, D, Rawaf, S, Rawal, L, Rawassizadeh, R, Renzaho, A, Rezaei, N, Rezai, M, Riahi, S, Rickard, J, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roth, G, Rubagotti, E, Rumisha, S, Rwegerera, G, Sabour, S, Sachdev, P, Saddik, B, Sadeghi, E, Saeedi Moghaddam, S, Sagar, R, Sahebkar, A, Sahraian, M, Sajadi, S, Salem, M, Salimzadeh, H, Samy, A, Sanabria, J, Santric-Milicevic, M, Saraswathy, S, Sarrafzadegan, N, Sarveazad, A, Sathish, T, Sattin, D, Saxena, D, Saxena, S, Schiavolin, S, Schwebel, D, Schwendicke, F, Senthilkumaran, S, Sepanlou, S, Sha, F, Shafaat, O, Shahabi, S, Shaheen, A, Shaikh, M, Shakiba, S, Shamsi, M, Shannawaz, M, Sharafi, K, Sheikh, A, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shetty, B, Shi, P, Shigematsu, M, Shin, J, Shiri, R, Shuval, K, Siabani, S, Sigfusdottir, I, Sigurvinsdottir, R, Silva, D, Silva, J, Simonetti, B, Singh, J, Singh, V, Sinke, A, Skryabin, V, Slater, H, Smith, E, Sobhiyeh, M, Sobngwi, E, Soheili, A, Somefun, O, Sorrie, M, Soyiri, I, Sreeramareddy, C, Stein, D, Stokes, M, Sudaryanto, A, Sultan, I, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tabuchi, T, Tadakamadla, S, Taherkhani, A, Tamiru, A, Tareque, M, Thankappan, K, Thapar, R, Thomas, N, Titova, M, Tonelli, M, Tovani-Palone, M, Tran, B, Travillian, R, Tsai, A, Tsatsakis, A, Tudor Car, L, Uddin, R, Unim, B, Unnikrishnan, B, Upadhyay, E, Vacante, M, Valadan Tahbaz, S, Valdez, P, Varughese, S, Vasankari, T, Venketasubramanian, N, Villeneuve, P, Violante, F, Vlassov, V, Vos, T, Vu, G, Waheed, Y, Wamai, R, Wang, Y, Westerman, R, Wickramasinghe, N, Wu, A, Wu, C, Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S, Yamagishi, K, Yano, Y, Yaya, S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V, Yeshitila, Y, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, S, Younis, M, Yousefinezhadi, T, Yu, C, Yu, Y, Yuce, D, Zaidi, S, Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zamanian, M, Zarafshan, H, Zarei, A, Zastrozhin, M, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z, Zhao, X, Zhu, C, Patton, G, and Viner, R
Subjects: Male, Joves -- Mortalitat, ADOLESCENT HEALTH, CHILDREN, Socioeconomic Factor, Global Burden of Disease, RA0421, Cause of Death, Medicine, Young adult, Child, 11 Medical and Health Sciences, Cause of death, education.field_of_study, Adolescent, Age Distribution, Female, Humans, Mortality, Sex Distribution, Socioeconomic Factors, Young Adult, Mortality rate, Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology, General Medicine, Articles, Hälsovetenskaper, MIDDLE-INCOME, MENTAL-HEALTH, Adolescent health, INTERVENTIONS, Human, SUICIDE, Total fertility rate, Population, Adolescent Health, Adolescents -- Mortalitat, General & Internal Medicine, Health Sciences, QUALITY, Medicine [Science], Social determinants of health, INCOME COUNTRIES, education, business.industry, TRENDS, Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi, Years of potential life lost, INJURIES, business, Demography
Abstract: Background Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10–14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15–19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1–4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1–4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0–24 years that occurred in people aged 10–24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. Interpretation Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10–24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Published: 2021

3. Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author: Ledesma, JR, Ma, J, Vongpradith, A, Maddison, ER, Novotney, A, Biehl, MH, LeGrand, KE, Ross, JM, Jahagirdar, D, Bryazka, D, Feldman, R, Abolhassani, H, Abosetugn, AE, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Adebayo, OM, Adnani, QES, Afzal, S, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmad, SA, Ahmadi, S, Ahmed Rashid, T, Ahmed Salih, Y, Aklilu, A, Akunna, CJ, Al Hamad, H, Alahdab, F, Alemayehu, Y, Alene, KA, Ali, BA, Ali, L, Alipour, V, Alizade, H, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Anderson, JA, Androudi, S, Antonio, CAT, Antony, CM, Anwer, R, Arabloo, J, Arja, A, Asemahagn, MA, Atre, SR, Azhar, GS, B, DB, Babar, ZUD, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Barqawi, HJ, Barra, F, Barrow, A, Basu, S, Belgaumi, UI, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattacharyya, K, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Boloor, A, Briko, NI, Buonsenso, D, Burugina Nagaraja, S, Butt, ZA, Carter, A, Carvalho, F, Charan, J, Chatterjee, S, Chattu, SK, Chattu, VK, Christopher, DJ, Chu, DT, Claassens, MM, Dadras, O, Dagnew, AB, Dai, X, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daneshpajouhnejad, P, Darwesh, AM, Dhamnetiya, D, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Doan, LP, Eftekharzadeh, S, Elhadi, M, Emami, A, Enany, S, Faraon, EJA, Farzadfar, F, Fernandes, E, Ferro Desideri, L, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foroutan, M, Frank, TD, Garcia-Basteiro, AL, Ledesma, JR, Ma, J, Vongpradith, A, Maddison, ER, Novotney, A, Biehl, MH, LeGrand, KE, Ross, JM, Jahagirdar, D, Bryazka, D, Feldman, R, Abolhassani, H, Abosetugn, AE, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Adebayo, OM, Adnani, QES, Afzal, S, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmad, SA, Ahmadi, S, Ahmed Rashid, T, Ahmed Salih, Y, Aklilu, A, Akunna, CJ, Al Hamad, H, Alahdab, F, Alemayehu, Y, Alene, KA, Ali, BA, Ali, L, Alipour, V, Alizade, H, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Anderson, JA, Androudi, S, Antonio, CAT, Antony, CM, Anwer, R, Arabloo, J, Arja, A, Asemahagn, MA, Atre, SR, Azhar, GS, B, DB, Babar, ZUD, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Barqawi, HJ, Barra, F, Barrow, A, Basu, S, Belgaumi, UI, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattacharyya, K, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Boloor, A, Briko, NI, Buonsenso, D, Burugina Nagaraja, S, Butt, ZA, Carter, A, Carvalho, F, Charan, J, Chatterjee, S, Chattu, SK, Chattu, VK, Christopher, DJ, Chu, DT, Claassens, MM, Dadras, O, Dagnew, AB, Dai, X, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daneshpajouhnejad, P, Darwesh, AM, Dhamnetiya, D, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Doan, LP, Eftekharzadeh, S, Elhadi, M, Emami, A, Enany, S, Faraon, EJA, Farzadfar, F, Fernandes, E, Ferro Desideri, L, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foroutan, M, Frank, TD, and Garcia-Basteiro, AL
Published: 2022

4. Measuring the availability of human resources for health and its relationship to universal health coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author: Haakenstad, A, Irvine, CMS, Knight, M, Bintz, C, Aravkin, AY, Zheng, P, Gupta, V, Abrigo, MRM, Abushouk, A, Adebayo, OM, Agarwal, G, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alanzi, TM, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Alipour, V, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amit, AML, Liliana Andrei, C, Andrei, T, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Ayanore, MA, Banach, M, Barnighausen, TW, Barthelemy, CM, Bayati, M, Benzian, H, Berman, AE, Bienhoff, K, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Biondi, A, Boloor, A, Busse, R, Butt, ZA, Camera, LA, Campos-Nonato, IR, Cardenas, R, Carvalho, F, Chansa, C, Chattu, SK, Chattu, VK, Chu, D-T, Dai, X, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dangel, WJ, Daryani, A, De Neve, J-W, Dhimal, M, Dipeolu, IO, Djalalinia, S, Hoa, TD, Doshi, CP, Doshmangir, L, Ehsani-Chimeh, E, El Tantawi, M, Fernandes, E, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Fomenkov, AA, Foroutan, M, Fukumoto, T, Fullman, N, Gad, MM, Ghadiri, K, Ghafourifard, M, Ghashghaee, A, Glucksman, T, Goudarzi, H, Das Gupta, R, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Haro, JM, Hasanpoor, E, Hay, S, Hegazy, M, Heibati, B, Henry, NJ, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Househ, M, Ilesanmi, OS, Imani-Nasab, M-H, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Jahani, MA, Joshi, A, Kalhor, R, Kayode, GA, Khalid, N, Khatab, K, Kisa, A, Kochhar, S, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Lal, DK, Lami, FH, Larsson, AO, Leasher, JL, LeGrand, KE, Lim, L-L, Mahotra, NB, Majeed, A, Maleki, A, Manjunatha, N, Massenburg, BB, Mestrovic, T, Mini, GK, Mirica, A, Mirrakhimov, EM, Mohammad, Y, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Morrison, SD, Naghavi, M, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Negoi, RI, Ngunjiri, JW, Cuong, TN, Nigatu, YT, Onwujekwe, OE, Ortega-Altamirano, D, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, SS, Owolabi, MO, Pakhare, AP, Filipino Pepito, VC, Perico, N, Pham, HQ, Pigott, DM, Pokhrel, KN, Rabiee, M, Rabiee, N, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawal, L, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Resnikoff, S, Rezaei, N, Rezapour, A, Rickard, J, Roever, L, Sahu, M, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Santric-Milicevic, MM, Saraswathy, SYI, Seedat, S, Senthilkumaran, S, Servan-Mori, E, Shaikh, MA, Sheikh, A, Silva, DAS, Stein, C, Stein, DJ, Titova, MV, Topp, SM, Tovani-Palone, MR, Ullah, S, Unnikrishnan, B, Vacante, M, Valdez, PR, Vasankari, TJ, Venketasubramanian, N, Vlassov, V, Vos, T, Yearwood, JA, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yu, C, Zadey, S, Bin Zaman, S, Zerfu, TA, Zhang, Z-J, Ziapour, A, Zodpey, S, Lim, SS, Murray, CJL, Lozano, R, Haakenstad, A, Irvine, CMS, Knight, M, Bintz, C, Aravkin, AY, Zheng, P, Gupta, V, Abrigo, MRM, Abushouk, A, Adebayo, OM, Agarwal, G, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alanzi, TM, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Alipour, V, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amit, AML, Liliana Andrei, C, Andrei, T, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Ayanore, MA, Banach, M, Barnighausen, TW, Barthelemy, CM, Bayati, M, Benzian, H, Berman, AE, Bienhoff, K, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Biondi, A, Boloor, A, Busse, R, Butt, ZA, Camera, LA, Campos-Nonato, IR, Cardenas, R, Carvalho, F, Chansa, C, Chattu, SK, Chattu, VK, Chu, D-T, Dai, X, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dangel, WJ, Daryani, A, De Neve, J-W, Dhimal, M, Dipeolu, IO, Djalalinia, S, Hoa, TD, Doshi, CP, Doshmangir, L, Ehsani-Chimeh, E, El Tantawi, M, Fernandes, E, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Fomenkov, AA, Foroutan, M, Fukumoto, T, Fullman, N, Gad, MM, Ghadiri, K, Ghafourifard, M, Ghashghaee, A, Glucksman, T, Goudarzi, H, Das Gupta, R, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Haro, JM, Hasanpoor, E, Hay, S, Hegazy, M, Heibati, B, Henry, NJ, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Househ, M, Ilesanmi, OS, Imani-Nasab, M-H, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Jahani, MA, Joshi, A, Kalhor, R, Kayode, GA, Khalid, N, Khatab, K, Kisa, A, Kochhar, S, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Lal, DK, Lami, FH, Larsson, AO, Leasher, JL, LeGrand, KE, Lim, L-L, Mahotra, NB, Majeed, A, Maleki, A, Manjunatha, N, Massenburg, BB, Mestrovic, T, Mini, GK, Mirica, A, Mirrakhimov, EM, Mohammad, Y, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Morrison, SD, Naghavi, M, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Negoi, RI, Ngunjiri, JW, Cuong, TN, Nigatu, YT, Onwujekwe, OE, Ortega-Altamirano, D, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, SS, Owolabi, MO, Pakhare, AP, Filipino Pepito, VC, Perico, N, Pham, HQ, Pigott, DM, Pokhrel, KN, Rabiee, M, Rabiee, N, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawal, L, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Resnikoff, S, Rezaei, N, Rezapour, A, Rickard, J, Roever, L, Sahu, M, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Santric-Milicevic, MM, Saraswathy, SYI, Seedat, S, Senthilkumaran, S, Servan-Mori, E, Shaikh, MA, Sheikh, A, Silva, DAS, Stein, C, Stein, DJ, Titova, MV, Topp, SM, Tovani-Palone, MR, Ullah, S, Unnikrishnan, B, Vacante, M, Valdez, PR, Vasankari, TJ, Venketasubramanian, N, Vlassov, V, Vos, T, Yearwood, JA, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yu, C, Zadey, S, Bin Zaman, S, Zerfu, TA, Zhang, Z-J, Ziapour, A, Zodpey, S, Lim, SS, Murray, CJL, and Lozano, R
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Human resources for health (HRH) include a range of occupations that aim to promote or improve human health. The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the WHO Health Workforce 2030 strategy have drawn attention to the importance of HRH for achieving policy priorities such as universal health coverage (UHC). Although previous research has found substantial global disparities in HRH, the absence of comparable cross-national estimates of existing workforces has hindered efforts to quantify workforce requirements to meet health system goals. We aimed to use comparable and standardised data sources to estimate HRH densities globally, and to examine the relationship between a subset of HRH cadres and UHC effective coverage performance. METHODS: Through the International Labour Organization and Global Health Data Exchange databases, we identified 1404 country-years of data from labour force surveys and 69 country-years of census data, with detailed microdata on health-related employment. From the WHO National Health Workforce Accounts, we identified 2950 country-years of data. We mapped data from all occupational coding systems to the International Standard Classification of Occupations 1988 (ISCO-88), allowing for standardised estimation of densities for 16 categories of health workers across the full time series. Using data from 1990 to 2019 for 196 of 204 countries and territories, covering seven Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) super-regions and 21 regions, we applied spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) to model HRH densities from 1990 to 2019 for all countries and territories. We used stochastic frontier meta-regression to model the relationship between the UHC effective coverage index and densities for the four categories of health workers enumerated in SDG indicator 3.c.1 pertaining to HRH: physicians, nurses and midwives, dentistry personnel, and pharmaceutical personnel. We identified minimum workf
Published: 2022

5. Global and regional burden of disease and injury in 2016 arising from occupational exposures: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author: Driscoll, T, Rushton, L, Hutchings, SJ, Straif, K, Steenland, K, Abate, D, Abbafat, C, Acharya, D, Adebayo, OM, Afshari, M, Akinyemiju, T, Alahdab, F, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Aremu, O, Ataro, Z, Quintanilla, BPA, Banoub, JAM, Barker-Collo, SL, Barnighausen, TW, Barrero, LH, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Benavides, FG, Beuran, M, Bhattacharyya, K, Bijani, A, Cardenas, R, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Cerin, E, Cooper, C, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dang, AK, Daryani, A, Desalegn, BB, Dharmaratne, SD, Dubljanin, E, El-Khatib, Z, Eskandarieh, S, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fukumoto, T, Gallus, S, Gebremichael, TG, Gezae, KE, Gill, TK, Goulart, BNG, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Hamzeh, B, Hassankhani, H, Hawkins, DM, Hay, SI, Hegazy, MI, Henok, A, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Rad, EH, Hossain, N, Hosseini, M, Hostiuc, S, Hu, G, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Jonas, JB, Shushtar, ZJ, Jozwiak, JJ, Jurisson, M, Kahsay, A, Karami, M, Karimi, N, Kasaeian, A, Kawakami, N, Khader, YS, Khan, EA, Khubchandani, J, Kim, YJ, Kisa, A, Defo, BK, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Lami, FH, Latif, A, Leigh, J, Levi, M, Li, S, Linn, S, Lopez, JCF, Lunevicius, R, Mahotra, NB, Majdan, M, Malekzadeh, R, Mansournia, MA, Massenburg, BB, Mehta, V, Melese, A, Memish, ZA, Mendoza, W, Mengistu, G, Meretoja, TJ, Mestrovic, T, Miazgowski, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Mezerji, NMG, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Molokhia, M, Monasta, L, Moodley, Y, Moosazadeh, M, Morad, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Morawska, L, Morrison, SD, Mousav, SM, Mustafa, G, Najaf, F, Nangia, V, Negoi, I, Negoi, RI, Neupane, S, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, TH, Nixon, MR, Ofori-Asenso, R, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Otstavnov, SS, Mahesh, PA, Panda-Jonas, S, Park, E-K, Prakash, S, Qorbani, M, Radfar, A, Rafay, A, Rahim, F, Reiner, RC, Renzaho, AMN, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Saddik, B, Safari-Faramani, R, Safi, S, Safiri, S, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Samy, AM, Schwebel, DC, Sepanlou, SG, Serdar, B, Shaikh, MA, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Sharif-Alhoseini, M, She, J, Shigematsu, M, Shiri, R, Shirkoohi, R, Si, S, Sinha, DN, Stanaway, JD, Soofi, M, Stokes, MA, Sufiyan, MB, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Takahashi, K, Tassew, SG, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Tran, M-HTBX, Tran, KB, Car, LT, Ullah, I, Valdez, PR, Vasankari, TJ, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, FS, Vladimirov, SK, Vlassov, V, Vu, GT, Wagner, GR, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y-P, Werdecker, A, Winkler, AS, Yimer, EM, Yip, P, Yirsaw, BD, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Yousefifard, M, Bin Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zandian, H, Zhang, Y, Zodpey, S, Lim, SS, Driscoll, Tim, Rushton, Lesley, Hutchings, Sally J, Straif, Kurt, Kumar, Manasi, Yisma, Engida, Lim, Stephen S, GBD 2016 Occupational Risk Factors Collaborators, Collaborators, GBD 2016 Occupational Risk Factors, Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, Clinicum, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, GBD 2016 Occupational Risk Factors Collaborator, and Violante FS
Subjects: Male, exposure assessment, Global Health, medicine.disease_cause, Global Burden of Disease, ergonomic, GBD 2016 Occupational Risk Factors Collaborators, 0302 clinical medicine, Risk Factors, 1599 Other Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services, Neoplasms, METABOLIC RISKS, Per capita, Medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, Public, Environmental & Occupational Health, Aged, 80 and over, education.field_of_study, Human factors and ergonomics, Middle Aged, 030210 environmental & occupational health, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, 3. Good health, Occupational Diseases, COMPARATIVE RISK-ASSESSMENT, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Risk assessment, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Adult, COUNTRIES, noise, Adolescent, Population, cancer, respiratory tract diseases, workplace, Risk Assessment, Environmental & Occupational Health, Asbestos, respiratory tract disease, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, Young Adult, 03 medical and health sciences, Age Distribution, Life Expectancy, Occupational Exposure, Environmental health, Humans, Disabled Persons, Sex Distribution, education, Aged, Science & Technology, business.industry, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, 1103 Clinical Sciences, TRENDS, Quality-adjusted life year, Socioeconomic Factors, Attributable risk, Commentary, Life expectancy, Wounds and Injuries, CLUSTERS, business, Low Back Pain
Abstract: ObjectivesThis study provides an overview of the influence of occupational risk factors on the global burden of disease as estimated by the occupational component of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016 study.MethodsThe GBD 2016 study estimated the burden in terms of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) arising from the effects of occupational risk factors (carcinogens; asthmagens; particulate matter, gases and fumes (PMGF); secondhand smoke (SHS); noise; ergonomic risk factors for low back pain; risk factors for injury). A population attributable fraction (PAF) approach was used for most risk factors.ResultsIn 2016, globally, an estimated 1.53 (95% uncertainty interval 1.39–1.68) million deaths and 76.1 (66.3–86.3) million DALYs were attributable to the included occupational risk factors, accounting for 2.8% of deaths and 3.2% of DALYs from all causes. Most deaths were attributable to PMGF, carcinogens (particularly asbestos), injury risk factors and SHS. Most DALYs were attributable to injury risk factors and ergonomic exposures. Men and persons 55 years or older were most affected. PAFs ranged from 26.8% for low back pain from ergonomic risk factors and 19.6% for hearing loss from noise to 3.4% for carcinogens. DALYs per capita were highest in Oceania, Southeast Asia and Central sub-Saharan Africa. On a per capita basis, between 1990 and 2016 there was an overall decrease of about 31% in deaths and 25% in DALYs.ConclusionsOccupational exposures continue to cause an important health burden worldwide, justifying the need for ongoing prevention and control initiatives.
Published: 2020

6. Mapping routine measles vaccination in low- and middle-income countries

Author: Sbarra, AN, Rolfe, S, Nguyen, JQ, Earl, L, Galles, NC, Marks, A, Abbas, KM, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahi, M, Abegaz, KH, Abiy, HAA, Abolhassani, H, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abushouk, AI, Accrombessi, MMK, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Afarideh, M, Aghaali, M, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, R, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, MB, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alinia, C, Alipoor, R, Alipour, V, Alizade, H, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, KA, Amare, B, Amini, S, Amini-Rarani, M, Amiri, F, Amit, AML, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Ansha, MG, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Anvari, D, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asgari, S, Atafar, Z, Ausloos, M, Awoke, N, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Azadmehr, A, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Badiye, AD, Bahrami, MA, Baig, AA, Bakhtiari, A, Balakrishnan, S, Banach, M, Banik, PC, Barac, A, Baradaran-Seyed, Z, Baraki, AG, Basu, S, Bayati, M, Bayou, YT, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bell, ML, Berbada, DA, Berhe, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Birhanu, M, Bisanzio, D, Biswas, A, Bohlouli, S, Bolla, SR, Borzouei, S, Brady, OJ, Bragazzi, NL, Briko, AN, Briko, NI, Nagaraja, SB, Butt, ZA, Cámera, LA, Campos-Nonato, IR, Car, J, Cárdenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castro, F, Chattu, VK, Chehrazi, M, Chin, KL, Chu, D-T, Cook, AJ, Cormier, NM, Cunningham, B, Dahlawi, SMA, Damiani, G, Dandona, R, Dandona, L, Danovaro, MC, Dansereau, E, Daoud, F, Darwesh, AM, Darwish, AH, Das, JK, Weaver, ND, De Neve, J-W, Demeke, FM, Demis, AB, Denova-Gutiérrez, E, Desalew, A, Deshpande, A, Desta, DM, Dharmaratne, SD, Dhungana, GP, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Dipeolu, IO, Djalalinia, S, Do, HT, Dorostkar, F, Doshmangir, L, Doyle, KE, Dunachie, SJ, Duraes, AR, Kalan, ME, Leylabadlo, HE, Edinur, HA, Effiong, A, Eftekhari, A, El, Sayed, I, El, Sayed, Zaki, M, Elema, TB, Elhabashy, HR, El-Jaafary, SI, Elsharkawy, A, Emamian, MH, Enany, S, Eshrati, B, Eskandari, K, Eskandarieh, S, Esmaeilnejad, S, Esmaeilzadeh, F, Esteghamati, A, Etisso, AE, Farahmand, M, Faraon, EJA, Fareed, M, Faridnia, R, Farioli, A, Farzadfar, F, Fattahi, N, Fazlzadeh, M, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Foroutan, M, Fukumoto, T, Fullman, N, Gad, MM, Geberemariyam, BS, Gebrehiwot, TT, Gebrehiwot, AM, Gebremariam, KT, Gebremedhin, KB, Gebremeskel, GG, Gebreslassie, AA, Gedefaw, GA, Gezae, KE, Ghadiri, K, Ghaffari, R, Ghaffarifar, F, Ghajarzadeh, M, Gheshlagh, RG, Ghashghaee, A, Ghiasvand, H, Gholamian, A, Gilani, SA, Gill, PS, Girmay, A, Gomes, NGM, Gopalani, SV, Goulart, BNG, Grada, A, Guimarães, RA, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Handiso, DW, Hanif, A, Haririan, H, Hasaballah, AI, Hasan, MM, Hasanpoor, E, Hasanzadeh, A, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Heidari-Soureshjani, R, Henry, NJ, Herteliu, C, Heydarpour, F, Hollerich, GI, Rad, EH, Hoogar, P, Hossain, N, Hosseini, M, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Hu, G, Huda, TM, Humayun, A, Ibitoye, SE, Ikilezi, G, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, IM, Ilic, MD, Imani-Nasab, MH, Inbaraj, LR, Iqbal, U, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Islam, MM, Iwu, CJ, Iwu, CCD, Jadidi-Niaragh, F, Jafarinia, M, Jahanmehr, N, Jakovljevic, M, Jalali, A, Jalilian, F, Javidnia, J, Jenabi, E, Jha, V, Ji, JS, John, O, Johnson, KB, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, JJ, Kabir, Z, Kabir, A, Kalani, H, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Kamal, Z, Kanchan, T, Kapoor, N, Karami, M, Matin, BK, Karch, A, Karimi, SE, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Keiyoro, PN, Khader, YS, Khafaie, MA, Khammarnia, M, Khan, MS, Khan, EA, Khan, J, Khan, MN, Khatab, K, Khater, MM, Khatib, MN, Khayamzadeh, M, Khazaei, M, Khazaei, S, Khosravi, A, Khubchandani, J, Kianipour, N, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kinyoki, DK, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Kolola, T, Komaki, H, Kosen, S, Koul, PA, Koyanagi, A, Kraemer, MUG, Krishan, K, Kuate Defo, B, Kumar, M, Kumar, P, Kumar, GA, Kusuma, D, La Vecchia, C, Lacey, B, Lad, SD, Lal, DK, Lam, F, Lami, FH, Lansingh, VC, Larson, HJ, Lasrado, S, Lee, SWH, Lee, PH, LeGrand, KE, Lenjebo, TL, Li, S, Liang, X, Liu, PY, Lopukhov, PD, Machado, DB, Mahasha, PW, Mahdavi, MM, Maheri, M, Mahotra, NB, Maled, V, Maleki, S, Malik, MA, Malta, DC, Mansour-Ghanaei, F, Mansouri, B, Mansourian, M, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masaka, A, Mayala, BK, Mehndiratta, MM, Mehri, F, Mehta, KM, Memiah, PTN, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mengesha, MB, Mengesha, EW, Mestrovic, T, Mihretie, KM, Miller-Petrie, MK, Mills, EJ, Milne, GJ, Mirabi, P, Mirrakhimov, EM, Mirzaei, R, Mirzaei, M, Mirzaei, HR, Mirzaei, H, Mirzaei-Alavijeh, M, Moazen, B, Moghadaszadeh, M, Mohamadi, E, Mohammad, DK, Mohammad, Y, Mohammad, KA, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N, Mohammadbeigi, A, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohammed, S, Mohammed, AS, Mohammed, H, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Monasta, L, Moosavi, MA, Moosazadeh, M, Moradi, G, Moradi, M, Moradi-Joo, M, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Mosapour, A, Mouodi, S, Mousavi, SM, Khaneghah, AM, Mueller, UO, Muluneh, AG, Munro, SB, Murray, CJL, Murthy, GVS, Muthupandian, S, Naderi, M, Nagarajan, AJ, Naghavi, M, Nangia, V, Nansseu, JR, Nayak, VC, Nazari, J, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, HLT, Nguyen, CTK, Nguyen, TH, Nigatu, YT, Nikbakhsh, R, Nikfar, S, Nikpoor, AR, Ningrum, DNA, Nnaji, CA, Oh, I-H, Oladnabi, M, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, JO, Olusanya, BO, Bali, AO, Omer, MO, Onwujekwe, OE, Osgood-Zimmerman, AE, Owolabi, MO, P, A, M, Padubidri, JR, Pakshir, K, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pando-Robles, V, Pashaei, T, Pasupula, DK, Paternina-Caicedo, AJ, Patton, GC, Pazoki Toroudi, H, Pepito, VCF, Pescarini, JM, Pigott, DM, Pilgrim, T, Pirsaheb, M, Poljak, M, Postma, MJ, Pourjafar, H, Pourmalek, F, Pourmirza, Kalhori, R, Prada, SI, Prakash, S, Quazi Syed, Z, Quintana, H, Rabiee, N, Rabiee, M, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rajati, F, Rameto, MA, Ramezanzadeh, K, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, SJ, Rasella, D, Rastogi, P, Rathi, P, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, DL, Rawal, L, Rawassizadeh, R, Rawat, R, Renjith, V, Renzaho, AMN, Reshmi, B, Reta, MA, Rezaei, N, Rezai, MS, Rezapour, A, Riahi, SM, Ribeiro, AI, Rickard, J, Rios-Blancas, M, Rios-González, CM, Roever, L, Rostamian, M, Rubino, S, Rwegerera, GM, Saad, AM, Saadatagah, S, Sabour, S, Sadeghi, E, Moghaddam, SS, Saeidi, S, Sagar, R, Sahebkar, A, Sahraian, MA, Sajadi, SM, Salahshoor, MR, Salam, N, Salem, H, Salem, MR, Salomon, JA, Kafil, HS, Sambala, EZ, Samy, AM, Saraswathy, SYI, Sarmiento-Suárez, R, Saroshe, S, Sartorius, B, Sarveazad, A, Sathian, B, Sathish, T, Schaeffer, LE, Schwebel, DC, Senthilkumaran, S, Shabaninejad, H, Shahabi, S, Shaheen, AA, Shaikh, MA, Shalash, AS, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shamsi, MB, Shamsizadeh, M, Sharafi, K, Sharifi, H, Sheikh, A, Sheikhtaheri, A, Shetty, RS, Shiferaw, WS, Shigematsu, M, Shin, JI, Shirkoohi, R, Siabani, S, Siddiqi, TJ, Silverberg, JIS, Simonetti, B, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Sinke, AH, Soheili, A, Sokhan, A, Soltani, S, Soofi, M, Sorrie, MB, Soyiri, IN, Spotin, A, Spurlock, EE, Sreeramareddy, CT, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Suleria, HAR, Abdulkader, RS, Taherkhani, A, Tapak, L, Taveira, N, Taymoori, P, Tefera, YM, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Teklehaimanot, BF, Tekulu, GH, Tesfay, BE, Tessema, ZT, Tessema, B, Thankappan, KR, Tohidinik, HR, Topor-Madry, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Uddin, R, Ullah, I, Umeokonkwo, CD, Unnikrishnan, B, Upadhyay, E, Usman, MS, Vaezi, M, Valadan, Tahbaz, S, Valdez, PR, Vasseghian, Y, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vollmer, S, Waheed, Y, Wakefield, J, Wang, Y, Wang, Y-P, Weldesamuel, GT, Werdecker, A, Westerman, R, Wiangkham, T, Wiens, KE, Wiysonge, CS, Woldu, G, Wondafrash, DZ, Wonde, TE, Wu, A-M, Yadollahpour, A, Jabbari, SHY, Yamada, T, Yaya, S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V, Yeheyis, TY, Yeshaw, Y, Yilgwan, CS, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefi, Z, Yousefifard, M, Yousefinezhadi, T, Yu, C, Yusefzadeh, H, Zadey, S, Zahirian, Moghadam, T, Zaki, L, Zaman, SB, Zamani, M, Zamanian, M, Zandian, H, Zangeneh, A, Zarei, F, Zerfu, TA, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z-J, Zhao, X-JG, Zhou, M, Ziapour, A, Hay, SI, Lim, SS, Mosser, JF, Local Burden of Disease Vaccine Coverage Collaborators, Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Clinicum, Department of Oncology, Sbarra, Alyssa N., Rolfe, Sam, Nguyen, Jason Q., Earl, Lucas, Ahmed, MB, Mosser, Jonathan F, Collaborators, Local Burden of Disease Vaccine Coverage, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung, Unión Europea. Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER/ERDF), Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malasia), Panjab University (India), NIHR - Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (Reino Unido), Australian Research Council, Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto, Local Burden Dis Educ Attainment C, Local Burden of Disease Vaccine Coverage Collaborator, and Violante FS
Subjects: and promotion of well-being, Vacunación Masiva, Internationality, Disease prevention, children under 5 years old, Geographic Mapping, Rural Health, medicine.disease_cause, Cross-reactivity, 0302 clinical medicine, RA0421, Vaccination Refusal, 030212 general & internal medicine, Child, immunity patterns, Pediatric, 0303 health sciences, Public health, Multidisciplinary, biology, Vaccination, Uncertainty, IMMUNIZATION, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, COVERAGE, 3. Good health, TIME, 3.4 Vaccines, Child, Preschool, Infectious diseases, A990 Medicine and Dentistry not elsewhere classified, Antibody, Engineering sciences. Technology, AFRICA, General Science & Technology, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), COVID-19, 610 Medicine & health, Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), Local Burden of Disease Vaccine Coverage Collaborators, Article, Vaccine Related, 03 medical and health sciences, measles vaccine, Measels, Low- and middle-income countries, Local burden of disease, Clinical Research, medicine, Humans, Healthcare Disparities, Preschool, PROGRESS, 030304 developmental biology, business.industry, MORTALITY, Developed Countries, Prevention, Comment, Vacunación, Urban Health, Prevention of disease and conditions, Virology, Coronavirus, Good Health and Well Being, Cobertura de Vacunación, biology.protein, Immunization, business, Measles
Abstract: The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)1–4. Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)5–8. Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-km2 pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts between 2010 and 2019, leaving many LMICs far from the GVAP goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019. MCV1 coverage was lower in rural than in urban locations, although a larger proportion of unvaccinated children overall lived in urban locations; strategies to provide essential vaccination services should address both geographical contexts. These results provide a tool for decision-makers to strengthen routine MCV1 immunization programmes and provide equitable disease protection for all children., Although progress in the coverage of routine measles vaccination in children in low- and middle-income countries was made during 2000–2019, many countries remain far from the goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019.
Published: 2021
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7. Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author: Reitsma, MB, Kendrick, PJ, Ababneh, E, Abbafati, C, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abdoli, A, Abedi, A, Abhilash, ES, Abila, DB, Aboyans, V, Abu-Rmeileh, NM, Adebayo, OM, Advani, SM, Aghaali, M, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmad, S, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, H, Aji, B, Akunna, CJ, Al-Aly, Z, Alanzi, TM, Alhabib, KF, Ali, L, Alif, SM, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amin, TT, Amini, S, Amu, H, Amul, GGH, Ancuceanu, R, Anderson, JA, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antonio, CAT, Antony, B, Anvari, D, Arabloo, J, Arian, ND, Arora, M, Asaad, M, Ausloos, M, Awan, AT, Ayano, G, Aynalem, GL, Azari, S, B, DB, Badiye, AD, Baig, AA, Bakhshaei, MH, Banach, M, Banik, PC, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Barqawi, HJ, Basu, S, Bayati, M, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Behzadifar, M, Bekuma, TT, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Berfield, KSS, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bibi, S, Bijani, A, Bintoro, BS, Biondi, A, Birara, S, Braithwaite, D, Brenner, H, Brunoni, AR, Burkart, K, Butt, ZA, Caetano dos Santos, FL, Cámera, LA, Car, J, Cárdenas, R, Carreras, G, Carrero, JJ, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Cattaruzza, MSS, Chang, JC, Chen, S, Chu, DT, Chung, SC, Cirillo, M, Costa, VM, Couto, RAS, Dadras, O, Dai, X, Damasceno, AAM, Damiani, G, Dandona, L, Schutte, Alta ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9217-4937, Sundstorm, Johan ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2247-8454, Sitas, Freddy ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9679-1481, Leung, Janni ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5816-2959, Reitsma, MB, Kendrick, PJ, Ababneh, E, Abbafati, C, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abdoli, A, Abedi, A, Abhilash, ES, Abila, DB, Aboyans, V, Abu-Rmeileh, NM, Adebayo, OM, Advani, SM, Aghaali, M, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmad, S, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, H, Aji, B, Akunna, CJ, Al-Aly, Z, Alanzi, TM, Alhabib, KF, Ali, L, Alif, SM, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amin, TT, Amini, S, Amu, H, Amul, GGH, Ancuceanu, R, Anderson, JA, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antonio, CAT, Antony, B, Anvari, D, Arabloo, J, Arian, ND, Arora, M, Asaad, M, Ausloos, M, Awan, AT, Ayano, G, Aynalem, GL, Azari, S, B, DB, Badiye, AD, Baig, AA, Bakhshaei, MH, Banach, M, Banik, PC, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Barqawi, HJ, Basu, S, Bayati, M, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Behzadifar, M, Bekuma, TT, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Berfield, KSS, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bibi, S, Bijani, A, Bintoro, BS, Biondi, A, Birara, S, Braithwaite, D, Brenner, H, Brunoni, AR, Burkart, K, Butt, ZA, Caetano dos Santos, FL, Cámera, LA, Car, J, Cárdenas, R, Carreras, G, Carrero, JJ, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Cattaruzza, MSS, Chang, JC, Chen, S, Chu, DT, Chung, SC, Cirillo, M, Costa, VM, Couto, RAS, Dadras, O, Dai, X, Damasceno, AAM, Damiani, G, Dandona, L, Schutte, Alta ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9217-4937, Sundstorm, Johan ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2247-8454, Sitas, Freddy ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9679-1481, and Leung, Janni ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5816-2959
Abstract: Background: Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally. Methods: We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available. Findings: Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13–1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11–7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5–28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4–39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98–1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16–8·20) deaths and 200 million (185–214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3–21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers. Interpretation: In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial p
Published: 2021

8. Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10–24 years, 1950–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author: Ward, JL, Azzopardi, PS, Francis, KL, Santelli, JS, Skirbekk, V, Sawyer, SM, Kassebaum, NJ, Mokdad, AH, Hay, SI, Abd-Allah, F, Abdoli, A, Abdollahi, M, Abedi, A, Abolhassani, H, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Abushouk, AI, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adham, D, Advani, SM, Afshari, K, Agrawal, A, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, AE, Aji, B, Akombi-Inyang, B ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6410-4154, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Alemu, BW, Al-Hajj, S, Alhassan, RK, Ali, S, Alicandro, G, Alijanzadeh, M, Aljunid, SM, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Almasri, NA, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Alonso, J, Al-Raddadi, RM, Altirkawi, KA, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Aminorroaya, A, Amit, AML, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Ansari, F, Ansari, I, Antonio, CAT, Anvari, D, Anwer, R, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Ärnlöv, J, Asaad, M, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asadi-Pooya, AA, Atout, MMDW, Ausloos, M, Avenyo, EK, Avila-Burgos, L, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayano, G, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Azene, ZN, Bakhshaei, MH, Bakkannavar, SM, Banach, M, Banik, PC, Barboza, MA, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Basu, S, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Bekuma, TT, Bell, AW, Bell, ML, Benjet, C, Bensenor, IM, Berhe, AK, Berhe, K, Berman, AE, Bhagavathula, AS, Godinho, Myron ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0081-2506, Boufous, Soufiane ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5686-1729, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, Sachdev, Perminder ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9595-3220, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Pesudovs, Konrad ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6322-9369, Peden, Amy ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6424-1511, Ivers, Rebecca ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3448-662X, Leung, Janni ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5816-2959, Iqbal, Usman ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0614-123X, Ward, JL, Azzopardi, PS, Francis, KL, Santelli, JS, Skirbekk, V, Sawyer, SM, Kassebaum, NJ, Mokdad, AH, Hay, SI, Abd-Allah, F, Abdoli, A, Abdollahi, M, Abedi, A, Abolhassani, H, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Abushouk, AI, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adham, D, Advani, SM, Afshari, K, Agrawal, A, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, AE, Aji, B, Akombi-Inyang, B ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6410-4154, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Alemu, BW, Al-Hajj, S, Alhassan, RK, Ali, S, Alicandro, G, Alijanzadeh, M, Aljunid, SM, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Almasri, NA, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Alonso, J, Al-Raddadi, RM, Altirkawi, KA, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Aminorroaya, A, Amit, AML, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Ansari, F, Ansari, I, Antonio, CAT, Anvari, D, Anwer, R, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Ärnlöv, J, Asaad, M, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asadi-Pooya, AA, Atout, MMDW, Ausloos, M, Avenyo, EK, Avila-Burgos, L, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayano, G, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Azene, ZN, Bakhshaei, MH, Bakkannavar, SM, Banach, M, Banik, PC, Barboza, MA, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Basu, S, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Bekuma, TT, Bell, AW, Bell, ML, Benjet, C, Bensenor, IM, Berhe, AK, Berhe, K, Berman, AE, Bhagavathula, AS, Godinho, Myron ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0081-2506, Boufous, Soufiane ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5686-1729, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, Sachdev, Perminder ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9595-3220, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Pesudovs, Konrad ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6322-9369, Peden, Amy ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6424-1511, Ivers, Rebecca ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3448-662X, Leung, Janni ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5816-2959, and Iqbal, Usman ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0614-123X
Abstract: Background: Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings: In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm
Published: 2021

9. Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990–2050

Author: Micah, AE, Cogswell, IE, Cunningham, B, Ezoe, S, Harle, AC, Maddison, ER, McCracken, D, Nomura, S, Simpson, KE, Stutzman, HN, Tsakalos, G, Wallace, LE, Zhao, Y, Zende, RR, Abbafati, C, Abdelmasseh, M, Abedi, A, Abegaz, KH, Abhilash, ES, Abolhassani, H, Abrigo, MRM, Adhikari, TB, Afzal, S, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmadi, S, Ahmed, H, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed Rashid, T, Ajami, M, Aji, B, Akalu, Y, Akunna, CJ, Al Hamad, H, Alam, K, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alemayehu, Y, Alhassan, RK, Alinia, C, Aljunid, SM, Almustanyir, SA, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amini, S, Amini-Rarani, M, Amu, H, Ancuceanu, R, Andrei, CL, Andrei, T, Angell, B, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Antony, CM, Aqeel, M, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Aripov, T, Arrigo, A, Ashraf, T, Atnafu, DD, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awan, AT, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Azari, S, Azhar, GS, Babalola, TK, Bahrami, MA, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Barati, N, Bärnighausen, TW, Barrow, A, Basu, S, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Benzian, H, Berman, AE, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhaskar, S, Bibi, S, Bijani, A, Bodolica, V, Gupta, V, Islam, Shariful, Micah, AE, Cogswell, IE, Cunningham, B, Ezoe, S, Harle, AC, Maddison, ER, McCracken, D, Nomura, S, Simpson, KE, Stutzman, HN, Tsakalos, G, Wallace, LE, Zhao, Y, Zende, RR, Abbafati, C, Abdelmasseh, M, Abedi, A, Abegaz, KH, Abhilash, ES, Abolhassani, H, Abrigo, MRM, Adhikari, TB, Afzal, S, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmadi, S, Ahmed, H, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed Rashid, T, Ajami, M, Aji, B, Akalu, Y, Akunna, CJ, Al Hamad, H, Alam, K, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alemayehu, Y, Alhassan, RK, Alinia, C, Aljunid, SM, Almustanyir, SA, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amini, S, Amini-Rarani, M, Amu, H, Ancuceanu, R, Andrei, CL, Andrei, T, Angell, B, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Antony, CM, Aqeel, M, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Aripov, T, Arrigo, A, Ashraf, T, Atnafu, DD, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awan, AT, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Azari, S, Azhar, GS, Babalola, TK, Bahrami, MA, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Barati, N, Bärnighausen, TW, Barrow, A, Basu, S, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Benzian, H, Berman, AE, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhaskar, S, Bibi, S, Bijani, A, Bodolica, V, Gupta, V, and Islam, Shariful
Published: 2021

10. Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author: Paulson, KR, Kamath, AM, Alam, T, Bienhoff, K, Abady, GG, Abbas, J, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abd-Elsalam, SM, Abdoli, A, Abedi, A, Abolhassani, H, Abreu, LG, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Abushouk, A, Adamu, AL, Adebayo, OM, Adegbosin, AE, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adeyinka, DA, Adsuar, JC, Afshari, K, Aghaali, M, Agudelo-Botero, M, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, MB, Aji, B, Akalu, Y, Akinyemi, OO, Aklilu, A, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Al-Eyadhy, A, Ali, T, Alicandro, G, Alif, SM, Alipour, V, Alizade, H, Aljunid, SM, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Almasri, NA, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Alonso, J, Al-Raddadi, RM, Altirkawi, KA, Alumran, AK, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Ameyaw, EK, Amini, S, Amini-Rarani, M, Amit, AML, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Andrei, CL, Ansari, F, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Anvari, D, Anwer, R, Aqeel, M, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Aripov, T, Arnlov, J, Artanti, KD, Arzani, A, Asaad, M, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asadi-Pooya, AA, Jafarabadi, MA, Athari, SS, Athari, SM, Atnafu, DD, Atreya, A, Atteraya, MS, Ausloos, M, Awan, AT, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Azarian, G, Azene, ZN, Darshan, BB, Babaee, E, Badiye, AD, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Banik, PC, Barker-Collo, SL, Barqawi, HJ, Bassat, Q, Basu, S, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Beghi, M, Bell, ML, Bendak, S, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Berhe, K, Berman, AE, Bezabih, YM, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhandari, D, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bikbov, B, Biondi, A, Birihane, BM, Biswas, RK, Bohlouli, S, Bragazzi, NL, Breusov, A, Brunoni, AR, Burkart, K, Nagaraja, SB, Busse, R, Butt, ZA, dos Santos, FLC, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Camargos, P, Camera, LA, Cardenas, R, Carreras, G, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Castelpietra, G, Cerin, E, Chang, J-C, Chanie, WF, Charan, J, Chatterjee, S, Chattu, SK, Chattu, VK, Chaturvedi, S, Chen, S, Cho, DY, Choi, J-YJ, Chu, D-T, Ciobanu, LG, Cirillo, M, Conde, J, Costa, VM, Couto, RAS, Dachew, BA, Dahlawi, SMA, Dai, H, Dai, X, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daneshpajouhnejad, P, Darmstadt, GL, Das, JK, Davila-Cervantes, CA, Davis, AC, Davletov, K, De la Hoz, FP, De Leo, D, Deeba, F, Denova-Gutierrez, E, Dervenis, N, Desalew, A, Deuba, K, Dey, S, Dharmaratne, SD, Dhingra, S, Dhungana, GP, da Silva, DD, Diaz, D, Dorostkar, F, Doshmangir, L, Dubljanin, E, Duraes, AR, Eagan, AW, Edinur, HA, Efendi, F, Eftekharzadeh, S, El Sayed, I, El Tantawi, M, Elbarazi, I, Elgendy, IY, El-Jaafary, S, Emami, A, Enany, S, Eyawo, O, Ezzikouri, S, Faris, PS, Farzadfar, F, Fattahi, N, Fauk, NK, Fazlzadeh, M, Feigin, VL, Ferede, TY, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Ferrara, P, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fisher, JL, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Foroutan, M, Franklin, RC, Freitas, M, Friedman, SD, Fukumoto, T, Gad, MM, Gaidhane, AM, Gaidhane, S, Gaihre, S, Gallus, S, Garcia-Basteiro, AL, Garcia-Gordillo, M, Gardner, WM, Fonseca, MG, Gebremedhin, KB, Getacher, L, Ghashghaee, A, Gholamian, A, Gilani, SA, Gill, TK, Giussani, G, Gnedovskaya, E, Godinho, MA, Goel, A, Golechha, M, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Goudarzi, H, Grivna, M, Gugnani, HC, Guido, D, Guimaraes, RA, Das Gupta, R, Gupta, R, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Haider, MR, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamidi, S, Hanif, A, Hankey, GJ, Hargono, A, Hasaballah, A, Hasan, MM, Hasan, SS, Hassan, A, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Havmoeller, RJ, Hayat, K, Heidari-Soureshjani, R, Henry, NJ, Herteliu, C, Hole, MK, Holla, R, Hossain, N, Hosseini, M, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, M, Hostiuc, S, Househ, M, Huang, J, Humayun, A, Hwang, B-F, Iavicoli, I, Ibitoye, SE, Ikuta, KS, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, IM, Ilic, MD, Inamdar, S, Inbaraj, LR, Iqbal, K, Iqbal, U, Islam, MM, Shariful Islam, Sheikh, Iso, H, Iwagami, M, Iwu, CCD, Jaafari, J, Jacobsen, KH, Jagnoor, J, Jain, V, Janodia, MD, Javaheri, T, Javanmardi, F, Jayaram, S, Jayatilleke, AU, Jenabi, E, Jha, RP, Ji, JS, John, O, Jonas, JB, Joo, T, Joseph, N, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, JJ, Jurisson, M, Kabir, A, Kabir, Z, Kalankesh, LR, Kamyari, N, Kanchan, T, Kapoor, N, Matin, BK, Karch, A, Karimi, SE, Kassahun, G, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Kemmer, L, Khalid, N, Khalilov, R, Khammarnia, M, Khan, EA, Khan, G, Khan, M, Khan, MN, Khang, Y-H, Khatab, K, Khater, AM, Khater, MM, Khayamzadeh, M, Khosravi, A, Kim, D, Kim, Y-E, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Kissoon, N, Kopec, JA, Kosen, S, Koul, PA, Laxminarayana, SLK, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Krishnamoorthy, V, Defo, BK, Bicer, BK, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Kumar, N, Kurmi, OP, Kusuma, D, La Vecchia, C, Lacey, B, Lalloo, R, Lami, FH, Landires, I, Larsson, AO, Lasrado, S, Lassi, ZS, Lauriola, P, Lee, PH, Lee, SWH, Lee, YH, Leigh, J, Leonardi, M, Lewycka, S, Li, B, Li, S, Liang, J, Lim, L-L, Limenih, MA, Lin, R-T, Liu, X, Lodha, R, Lopez, AD, Lozano, R, Lugo, A, Lunevicius, R, Mackay, MT, Kunjathur, SM, Magnani, FG, Prasad, DRM, Maheri, M, Mahmoudi, M, Majeed, A, Maled, V, Maleki, A, Maleki, S, Malekzadeh, R, Malik, AA, Malta, DC, Mamun, AA, Mansouri, B, Mansournia, MA, Martinez, G, Martini, S, Martins-Melo, FR, Masoumi, SZ, Maulik, PK, McAlinden, C, McGrath, JJ, Medina-Solis, CE, Nasab, EM, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Memish, ZA, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mengesha, EW, Mensah, GA, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, TJ, Mersha, AM, Mestrovic, T, Miazgowski, B, Miazgowski, T, Michalek, IM, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Miri, M, Mirica, A, Mirrakhimov, EM, Mirzaei, H, Mirzaei, M, Moazen, B, Moghadaszadeh, M, Mohajer, B, Mohamad, O, Mohammad, Y, Mohammadi, SM, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Molokhia, M, Monasta, L, Mondello, S, Moni, MA, Moore, CE, Moradi, G, Moradi, M, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Khaneghah, AM, Mustafa, G, Naderi, M, Nagarajan, AJ, Nagaraju, SP, Naghavi, M, Naghshtabrizi, B, Naimzada, MD, Nangia, V, Swamy, SN, Nascimento, BR, Naveed, M, Nazari, J, Ndejjo, R, Negoi, I, Negoi, RI, Nena, E, Nepal, S, Netsere, HB, Nguefack-Tsague, G, Ngunjiri, JW, Chi, TYN, Cuong, TN, Huong, LTN, Nigatu, YT, Nigussie, SN, Nixon, MR, Nnaji, CA, Nomura, S, Noor, NM, Noubiap, JJ, Nunez-Samudio, V, Nwatah, VE, Oancea, B, Odukoya, OO, Ogbo, FA, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Bali, AO, Onwujekwe, OE, Ortiz, A, Otoiu, A, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, SS, Owolabi, MO, Mahesh, PA, Padubidri, JR, Pakhale, S, Pakshir, K, Pal, PK, Palladino, R, Pana, A, Panda-Jonas, S, Pandey, A, Pandi-Perumal, SR, Pangaribuan, HU, Pardo-Montano, AM, Park, E-K, Patel, SK, Patton, GC, Pawar, S, Toroudi, HP, Peden, AE, Pepito, VCF, Peprah, EK, Pereira, J, Perez-Gomez, J, Perico, N, Pesudovs, K, Pilgrim, T, Pinheiro, M, Piradov, MA, Pirsaheb, M, Platts-Mills, JA, Pokhrel, KN, Postma, MJ, Pourjafar, H, Prada, S, Prakash, S, Pupillo, E, Syed, ZQ, Rabiee, N, Radfar, A, Rafiee, A, Rafiei, A, Raggi, A, Rahimzadeh, S, Rahman, MHU, Rahmani, AM, Ramezanzadeh, K, Rana, J, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, SJ, Rasella, D, Rastogi, P, Rathi, P, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawasia, WF, Rawassizadeh, R, Jr, RCR, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Reshmi, B, Resnikoff, S, Rezaei, N, Rezapour, A, Riahi, SM, Ribeiro, D, Rickard, J, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Rothenbacher, D, Rubagotti, E, Rumisha, SF, Ryan, PM, Saddik, B, Sadeghi, E, Moghaddam, SS, Sagar, R, Sahebkar, A, Salahshoor, MR, Salehi, S, Salem, MR, Salimzadeh, H, Salomon, JA, Samodra, YL, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Santric-Milicevic, MM, Saraswathy, SYI, Sarker, AR, Sarrafzadegan, N, Sarveazad, A, Sathian, B, Sathish, T, Sattin, D, Saxena, S, Saya, GK, Saylan, M, Schiavolin, S, Schlaich, MP, Schwebel, DC, Schwendicke, F, Senthilkumaran, S, Sepanlou, SG, Servan-Mori, E, Sha, F, Shafaat, O, Shahabi, S, Shahbaz, M, Shaheen, AA, Shahid, I, Shaikh, MA, Shakiba, S, Shalash, AS, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shannawaz, M, Sharafi, K, Sheikh, A, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shiferaw, WS, Shigematsu, M, Shin, JI, Shiri, R, Shiue, I, Shuval, K, Siddiqi, TJ, Sidemo, NB, Sigfusdottir, ID, Sigurvinsdottir, R, Silva, JP, Silverberg, JIS, Simonetti, B, Singh, BB, Singh, JA, Singhal, D, Sinha, DN, Skiadaresi, E, Skryabin, VY, Skryabina, AA, Sleet, DA, Sobaih, BH, Sobhiyeh, MR, Soltani, S, Soriano, JB, Spurlock, EE, Sreeramareddy, CT, Steiropoulos, P, Stokes, Mark, Stortecky, S, Sufiyan, MB, Abdulkader, RS, Sulo, G, Swope, CB, Sykes, BL, Szeto, MD, Szocska, M, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadesse, EG, Taherkhani, A, Tamiru, AT, Tareque, MI, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Temsah, M-H, Tesfay, FH, Tessema, GA, Tessema, ZT, Thankappan, KR, Thapar, R, Tolani, MA, Tovani-Palone, MR, Traini, E, Bach, XT, Tripathy, JP, Tsapparellas, G, Tsatsakis, A, Car, LT, Uddin, Riaz, Ullah, A, Umeokonkwo, CD, Unim, B, Unnikrishnan, B, Upadhyay, E, Usman, MS, Vacante, M, Vaezi, M, Tahbaz, SV, Valdez, PR, Vasankari, TJ, Venketasubramanian, N, Verma, M, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vo, B, Giang, TV, Wado, YD, Waheed, Y, Wamai, RG, Wang, Y, Wang, Y-P, Ward, P, Werdecker, A, Westerman, R, Wickramasinghe, ND, Wilner, LB, Wiysonge, CS, Wu, A-M, Wu, C, Xie, Y, Jabbari, SHY, Yamagishi, K, Yandrapalli, S, Yaya, S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, S-J, Younis, MZ, Yousefi, Z, Yousefinezhadi, T, Yu, C, Yusuf, SS, Zaidi, SS, Bin Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zamanian, M, Zastrozhin, MS, Zastrozhina, A, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z-J, Zhao, X-JG, Ziapour, A, Hay, S, Murray, CJL, Wang, H, Kassebaum, NJ, Paulson, KR, Kamath, AM, Alam, T, Bienhoff, K, Abady, GG, Abbas, J, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abd-Elsalam, SM, Abdoli, A, Abedi, A, Abolhassani, H, Abreu, LG, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Abushouk, A, Adamu, AL, Adebayo, OM, Adegbosin, AE, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adeyinka, DA, Adsuar, JC, Afshari, K, Aghaali, M, Agudelo-Botero, M, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, MB, Aji, B, Akalu, Y, Akinyemi, OO, Aklilu, A, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Al-Eyadhy, A, Ali, T, Alicandro, G, Alif, SM, Alipour, V, Alizade, H, Aljunid, SM, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Almasri, NA, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Alonso, J, Al-Raddadi, RM, Altirkawi, KA, Alumran, AK, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Ameyaw, EK, Amini, S, Amini-Rarani, M, Amit, AML, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Andrei, CL, Ansari, F, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Anvari, D, Anwer, R, Aqeel, M, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Aripov, T, Arnlov, J, Artanti, KD, Arzani, A, Asaad, M, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asadi-Pooya, AA, Jafarabadi, MA, Athari, SS, Athari, SM, Atnafu, DD, Atreya, A, Atteraya, MS, Ausloos, M, Awan, AT, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Azarian, G, Azene, ZN, Darshan, BB, Babaee, E, Badiye, AD, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Banik, PC, Barker-Collo, SL, Barqawi, HJ, Bassat, Q, Basu, S, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Beghi, M, Bell, ML, Bendak, S, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Berhe, K, Berman, AE, Bezabih, YM, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhandari, D, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bikbov, B, Biondi, A, Birihane, BM, Biswas, RK, Bohlouli, S, Bragazzi, NL, Breusov, A, Brunoni, AR, Burkart, K, Nagaraja, SB, Busse, R, Butt, ZA, dos Santos, FLC, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Camargos, P, Camera, LA, Cardenas, R, Carreras, G, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Castelpietra, G, Cerin, E, Chang, J-C, Chanie, WF, Charan, J, Chatterjee, S, Chattu, SK, Chattu, VK, Chaturvedi, S, Chen, S, Cho, DY, Choi, J-YJ, Chu, D-T, Ciobanu, LG, Cirillo, M, Conde, J, Costa, VM, Couto, RAS, Dachew, BA, Dahlawi, SMA, Dai, H, Dai, X, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daneshpajouhnejad, P, Darmstadt, GL, Das, JK, Davila-Cervantes, CA, Davis, AC, Davletov, K, De la Hoz, FP, De Leo, D, Deeba, F, Denova-Gutierrez, E, Dervenis, N, Desalew, A, Deuba, K, Dey, S, Dharmaratne, SD, Dhingra, S, Dhungana, GP, da Silva, DD, Diaz, D, Dorostkar, F, Doshmangir, L, Dubljanin, E, Duraes, AR, Eagan, AW, Edinur, HA, Efendi, F, Eftekharzadeh, S, El Sayed, I, El Tantawi, M, Elbarazi, I, Elgendy, IY, El-Jaafary, S, Emami, A, Enany, S, Eyawo, O, Ezzikouri, S, Faris, PS, Farzadfar, F, Fattahi, N, Fauk, NK, Fazlzadeh, M, Feigin, VL, Ferede, TY, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Ferrara, P, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fisher, JL, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Foroutan, M, Franklin, RC, Freitas, M, Friedman, SD, Fukumoto, T, Gad, MM, Gaidhane, AM, Gaidhane, S, Gaihre, S, Gallus, S, Garcia-Basteiro, AL, Garcia-Gordillo, M, Gardner, WM, Fonseca, MG, Gebremedhin, KB, Getacher, L, Ghashghaee, A, Gholamian, A, Gilani, SA, Gill, TK, Giussani, G, Gnedovskaya, E, Godinho, MA, Goel, A, Golechha, M, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Goudarzi, H, Grivna, M, Gugnani, HC, Guido, D, Guimaraes, RA, Das Gupta, R, Gupta, R, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Haider, MR, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamidi, S, Hanif, A, Hankey, GJ, Hargono, A, Hasaballah, A, Hasan, MM, Hasan, SS, Hassan, A, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Havmoeller, RJ, Hayat, K, Heidari-Soureshjani, R, Henry, NJ, Herteliu, C, Hole, MK, Holla, R, Hossain, N, Hosseini, M, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, M, Hostiuc, S, Househ, M, Huang, J, Humayun, A, Hwang, B-F, Iavicoli, I, Ibitoye, SE, Ikuta, KS, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, IM, Ilic, MD, Inamdar, S, Inbaraj, LR, Iqbal, K, Iqbal, U, Islam, MM, Shariful Islam, Sheikh, Iso, H, Iwagami, M, Iwu, CCD, Jaafari, J, Jacobsen, KH, Jagnoor, J, Jain, V, Janodia, MD, Javaheri, T, Javanmardi, F, Jayaram, S, Jayatilleke, AU, Jenabi, E, Jha, RP, Ji, JS, John, O, Jonas, JB, Joo, T, Joseph, N, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, JJ, Jurisson, M, Kabir, A, Kabir, Z, Kalankesh, LR, Kamyari, N, Kanchan, T, Kapoor, N, Matin, BK, Karch, A, Karimi, SE, Kassahun, G, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Kemmer, L, Khalid, N, Khalilov, R, Khammarnia, M, Khan, EA, Khan, G, Khan, M, Khan, MN, Khang, Y-H, Khatab, K, Khater, AM, Khater, MM, Khayamzadeh, M, Khosravi, A, Kim, D, Kim, Y-E, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Kissoon, N, Kopec, JA, Kosen, S, Koul, PA, Laxminarayana, SLK, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Krishnamoorthy, V, Defo, BK, Bicer, BK, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Kumar, N, Kurmi, OP, Kusuma, D, La Vecchia, C, Lacey, B, Lalloo, R, Lami, FH, Landires, I, Larsson, AO, Lasrado, S, Lassi, ZS, Lauriola, P, Lee, PH, Lee, SWH, Lee, YH, Leigh, J, Leonardi, M, Lewycka, S, Li, B, Li, S, Liang, J, Lim, L-L, Limenih, MA, Lin, R-T, Liu, X, Lodha, R, Lopez, AD, Lozano, R, Lugo, A, Lunevicius, R, Mackay, MT, Kunjathur, SM, Magnani, FG, Prasad, DRM, Maheri, M, Mahmoudi, M, Majeed, A, Maled, V, Maleki, A, Maleki, S, Malekzadeh, R, Malik, AA, Malta, DC, Mamun, AA, Mansouri, B, Mansournia, MA, Martinez, G, Martini, S, Martins-Melo, FR, Masoumi, SZ, Maulik, PK, McAlinden, C, McGrath, JJ, Medina-Solis, CE, Nasab, EM, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Memish, ZA, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mengesha, EW, Mensah, GA, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, TJ, Mersha, AM, Mestrovic, T, Miazgowski, B, Miazgowski, T, Michalek, IM, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Miri, M, Mirica, A, Mirrakhimov, EM, Mirzaei, H, Mirzaei, M, Moazen, B, Moghadaszadeh, M, Mohajer, B, Mohamad, O, Mohammad, Y, Mohammadi, SM, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Molokhia, M, Monasta, L, Mondello, S, Moni, MA, Moore, CE, Moradi, G, Moradi, M, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Khaneghah, AM, Mustafa, G, Naderi, M, Nagarajan, AJ, Nagaraju, SP, Naghavi, M, Naghshtabrizi, B, Naimzada, MD, Nangia, V, Swamy, SN, Nascimento, BR, Naveed, M, Nazari, J, Ndejjo, R, Negoi, I, Negoi, RI, Nena, E, Nepal, S, Netsere, HB, Nguefack-Tsague, G, Ngunjiri, JW, Chi, TYN, Cuong, TN, Huong, LTN, Nigatu, YT, Nigussie, SN, Nixon, MR, Nnaji, CA, Nomura, S, Noor, NM, Noubiap, JJ, Nunez-Samudio, V, Nwatah, VE, Oancea, B, Odukoya, OO, Ogbo, FA, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Bali, AO, Onwujekwe, OE, Ortiz, A, Otoiu, A, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, SS, Owolabi, MO, Mahesh, PA, Padubidri, JR, Pakhale, S, Pakshir, K, Pal, PK, Palladino, R, Pana, A, Panda-Jonas, S, Pandey, A, Pandi-Perumal, SR, Pangaribuan, HU, Pardo-Montano, AM, Park, E-K, Patel, SK, Patton, GC, Pawar, S, Toroudi, HP, Peden, AE, Pepito, VCF, Peprah, EK, Pereira, J, Perez-Gomez, J, Perico, N, Pesudovs, K, Pilgrim, T, Pinheiro, M, Piradov, MA, Pirsaheb, M, Platts-Mills, JA, Pokhrel, KN, Postma, MJ, Pourjafar, H, Prada, S, Prakash, S, Pupillo, E, Syed, ZQ, Rabiee, N, Radfar, A, Rafiee, A, Rafiei, A, Raggi, A, Rahimzadeh, S, Rahman, MHU, Rahmani, AM, Ramezanzadeh, K, Rana, J, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, SJ, Rasella, D, Rastogi, P, Rathi, P, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawasia, WF, Rawassizadeh, R, Jr, RCR, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Reshmi, B, Resnikoff, S, Rezaei, N, Rezapour, A, Riahi, SM, Ribeiro, D, Rickard, J, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Rothenbacher, D, Rubagotti, E, Rumisha, SF, Ryan, PM, Saddik, B, Sadeghi, E, Moghaddam, SS, Sagar, R, Sahebkar, A, Salahshoor, MR, Salehi, S, Salem, MR, Salimzadeh, H, Salomon, JA, Samodra, YL, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Santric-Milicevic, MM, Saraswathy, SYI, Sarker, AR, Sarrafzadegan, N, Sarveazad, A, Sathian, B, Sathish, T, Sattin, D, Saxena, S, Saya, GK, Saylan, M, Schiavolin, S, Schlaich, MP, Schwebel, DC, Schwendicke, F, Senthilkumaran, S, Sepanlou, SG, Servan-Mori, E, Sha, F, Shafaat, O, Shahabi, S, Shahbaz, M, Shaheen, AA, Shahid, I, Shaikh, MA, Shakiba, S, Shalash, AS, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shannawaz, M, Sharafi, K, Sheikh, A, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shiferaw, WS, Shigematsu, M, Shin, JI, Shiri, R, Shiue, I, Shuval, K, Siddiqi, TJ, Sidemo, NB, Sigfusdottir, ID, Sigurvinsdottir, R, Silva, JP, Silverberg, JIS, Simonetti, B, Singh, BB, Singh, JA, Singhal, D, Sinha, DN, Skiadaresi, E, Skryabin, VY, Skryabina, AA, Sleet, DA, Sobaih, BH, Sobhiyeh, MR, Soltani, S, Soriano, JB, Spurlock, EE, Sreeramareddy, CT, Steiropoulos, P, Stokes, Mark, Stortecky, S, Sufiyan, MB, Abdulkader, RS, Sulo, G, Swope, CB, Sykes, BL, Szeto, MD, Szocska, M, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadesse, EG, Taherkhani, A, Tamiru, AT, Tareque, MI, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Temsah, M-H, Tesfay, FH, Tessema, GA, Tessema, ZT, Thankappan, KR, Thapar, R, Tolani, MA, Tovani-Palone, MR, Traini, E, Bach, XT, Tripathy, JP, Tsapparellas, G, Tsatsakis, A, Car, LT, Uddin, Riaz, Ullah, A, Umeokonkwo, CD, Unim, B, Unnikrishnan, B, Upadhyay, E, Usman, MS, Vacante, M, Vaezi, M, Tahbaz, SV, Valdez, PR, Vasankari, TJ, Venketasubramanian, N, Verma, M, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vo, B, Giang, TV, Wado, YD, Waheed, Y, Wamai, RG, Wang, Y, Wang, Y-P, Ward, P, Werdecker, A, Westerman, R, Wickramasinghe, ND, Wilner, LB, Wiysonge, CS, Wu, A-M, Wu, C, Xie, Y, Jabbari, SHY, Yamagishi, K, Yandrapalli, S, Yaya, S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, S-J, Younis, MZ, Yousefi, Z, Yousefinezhadi, T, Yu, C, Yusuf, SS, Zaidi, SS, Bin Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zamanian, M, Zastrozhin, MS, Zastrozhina, A, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z-J, Zhao, X-JG, Ziapour, A, Hay, S, Murray, CJL, Wang, H, and Kassebaum, NJ
Published: 2021

11. Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors in Child and Adolescent Health, 1990 to 2017: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2017 Study

Author: Kassebaum, NJ, Reiner, RC, Olsen, HE, Ikeda, CT, Echko, MM, Ballestreros, KE, Manguerra, H, Martopullo, I, Millear, A, Shields, C, Smith, A, Strub, B, Abebe, M, Abebe, Z, Adhena, BM, Adhikari, TB, Akibu, M, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alvis-Guzman, N, Antonio, CAT, Aremu, O, Asgedom, SW, Asseffa, NA, Avila-Burgos, L, Barac, A, Bärnighausen, TW, Bassat, Q, Bensenor, IM, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bililign, N, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Malta, DC, Chang, J-C, Charlson, FJ, Dharmaratne, SD, Doku, DT, Edessa, D, El-Khatib, Z, Erskine, HE, Ferrari, AJ, Fullman, N, Gupta, R, Hassen, HY, Hay, SI, Ilesanmi, OS, Jacobsen, KH, Kahsay, A, Kasaeian, A, Kassa, TD, Kebede, S, Khader, YS, Khan, EA, Khan, MN, Khang, Y-H, Khubchandani, J, Kinfu, Y, Kochhar, S, Kokubo, Y, Koyanagi, A, Defo, BK, Lal, DK, Kumsa, FA, Larson, HJ, Leung, J, Mamun, AA, Mehata, S, Melku, M, Mendoza, W, Mezgebe, HB, Miller, TR, Moges, NA, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Monasta, L, Neupane, S, Nguyen, HLT, Ningrum, DNA, Nirayo, YL, Nong, VM, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Patton, GC, Pereira, DM, Pourmalek, F, Qorbani, M, Rafay, A, Rai, RK, Ram, U, Ranabhat, CL, Renzaho, AMN, Rezai, MS, Ronfani, L, Roth, GA, Safiri, S, Sartorius, B, Scott, JG, Shackelford, KA, Sliwa, K, Sreeramareddy, C, Sufiyan, MB, Terkawi, AS, Topor-Madry, R, Tran, BX, Ukwaja, KN, Uthman, OA, Vollset, SE, Weldegwergs, KG, Werdecker, A, Whiteford, HA, Wijeratne, T, Yonemoto, N, Yotebieng, M, Zuhlke, LJ, Kyu, HH, Naghavi, M, Vos, T, Murray, CJL, and Collaborators, GBD 2017 Child And Adolescent Health
Subjects: Male, Adolescent, Adolescent Health, Global Health, Global Burden of Disease, Young Adult, Age Distribution, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, Risk Factors, Humans, Online First, Sex Distribution, Child, Original Investigation, Research, Child Health, Infant, Newborn, food and beverages, Infant, Featured, Online Only, Socioeconomic Factors, Child, Preschool, Wounds and Injuries, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Morbidity
Abstract: Key Points Question How have the levels, trends, and leading causes of child and adolescent mortality and nonfatal health loss changed from 1990 to 2017? Findings This study found that child and adolescent mortality decreased throughout the world from 1990 to 2017, but morbidity has increased as a proportion of total disease burden, because the major causes of nonfatal health loss during childhood and adolescence have not changed dramatically. Meaning As the global health community continues to prioritize child and adolescent health during the Sustainable Development Goal era, careful attention should also be placed on examining and addressing nonfatal illness and disability across the development spectrum., This analysis of the Global Disease Burden data estimates mortality and morbidity in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2017 by age and sex in 195 countries and territories worldwide., Importance Understanding causes and correlates of health loss among children and adolescents can identify areas of success, stagnation, and emerging threats and thereby facilitate effective improvement strategies. Objective To estimate mortality and morbidity in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2017 by age and sex in 195 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants This study examined levels, trends, and spatiotemporal patterns of cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes using standardized approaches to data processing and statistical analysis. It also describes epidemiologic transitions by evaluating historical associations between disease indicators and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and fertility. Data collected from 1990 to 2017 on children and adolescents from birth through 19 years of age in 195 countries and territories were assessed. Data analysis occurred from January 2018 to August 2018. Exposures Being under the age of 20 years between 1990 and 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures Death and disability. All-cause and cause-specific deaths, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost, and years of life lived with disability. Results Child and adolescent deaths decreased 51.7% from 13.77 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 13.60-13.93 million) in 1990 to 6.64 million (95% UI, 6.44-6.87 million) in 2017, but in 2017, aggregate disability increased 4.7% to a total of 145 million (95% UI, 107-190 million) years lived with disability globally. Progress was uneven, and inequity increased, with low-SDI and low-middle–SDI locations experiencing 82.2% (95% UI, 81.6%-82.9%) of deaths, up from 70.9% (95% UI, 70.4%-71.4%) in 1990. The leading disaggregated causes of disability-adjusted life years in 2017 in the low-SDI quintile were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, malaria, and congenital birth defects, whereas neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, headache, dermatitis, and anxiety were highest-ranked in the high-SDI quintile. Conclusions and Relevance Mortality reductions over this 27-year period mean that children are more likely than ever to reach their 20th birthdays. The concomitant expansion of nonfatal health loss and epidemiological transition in children and adolescents, especially in low-SDI and middle-SDI countries, has the potential to increase already overburdened health systems, will affect the human capital potential of societies, and may influence the trajectory of socioeconomic development. Continued monitoring of child and adolescent health loss is crucial to sustain the progress of the past 27 years.
Published: 2019

12. Diseases, injuries, and risk factors in child and adolescent health, 1990 to 2017: Findings from the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors 2017 study

Author: GBD 2017 Child and Adolescent Health Collaborators, Reiner RC, Olsen HE, Ikeda CT, Echko MM, Ballestreros KE, Manguerra H, Martopullo I, Millear A, Shields C, Smith A, Kokubo Y, Koyanagi A, Defo BK, Lal DK, Kumsa FA, Larson HJ, Leung J, Mamun AA, Mehata S, Melku M, Nong VM, Mendoza W, Mezgebe HB, Miller TR, Moges NA, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Neupane S, Nguyen HLT, Ningrum DNA, Ogbo FA, Nirayo YL, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Patton GC, Pereira DM, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Sliwa K, Rai RK, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Renzaho AMN, Rezai MS, Ronfani L, Roth GA, Safiri S, Sartorius B, Scott JG, Sreeramareddy C, Shackelford KA, Sufiyan MB, Terkawi AS, Topor-Madry R, Tran BX, Ukwaja KN, Uthman OA, Vollset SE, Weldegwergs KG, Strub B, Werdecker A, Whiteford HA, Wijeratne T, Yonemoto N, Yotebieng M, Zuhlke LJ, Kyu HH, Naghavi M, Vos T, Murray CJL, Abebe M, Kassebaum NJ, Abebe Z, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Akibu M, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvis-Guzman N, Antonio CAT, Aremu O, Asgedom SW, Asseffa NA, Avila-Burgos L, Barac A, Bärnighausen TW, Bassat Q, Bensenor IM, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bililign N, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Malta DC, Chang J-C, Charlson FJ, Dharmaratne SD, Doku DT, Edessa D, El-Khatib Z, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fullman N, Gupta R, Hassen HY, Hay SI, Ilesanmi OS, Jacobsen KH, Kahsay A, Kasaeian A, Kassa TD, Kebede S, Khader YS, Khan EA, Khan MN, Khang Y-H, Khubchandani J, Kinfu Y, and Kochhar S
Subjects: Male, Adolescent, Infant, Newborn, Adolescent Health, Child Health, Infant, Global Health, Pediatrics, Global Burden of Disease, Young Adult, Age Distribution, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, Socioeconomic Factors, Risk Factors, Child, Preschool, 1114 Paediatrics and Reproductive Medicine, Humans, Wounds and Injuries, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Morbidity, Sex Distribution, Child
Abstract: Importance Understanding causes and correlates of health loss among children and adolescents can identify areas of success, stagnation, and emerging threats and thereby facilitate effective improvement strategies. Objective To estimate mortality and morbidity in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2017 by age and sex in 195 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants This study examined levels, trends, and spatiotemporal patterns of cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes using standardized approaches to data processing and statistical analysis. It also describes epidemiologic transitions by evaluating historical associations between disease indicators and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and fertility. Data collected from 1990 to 2017 on children and adolescents from birth through 19 years of age in 195 countries and territories were assessed. Data analysis occurred from January 2018 to August 2018. Exposures Being under the age of 20 years between 1990 and 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures Death and disability. All-cause and cause-specific deaths, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost, and years of life lived with disability. Results Child and adolescent deaths decreased 51.7% from 13.77 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 13.60-13.93 million) in 1990 to 6.64 million (95% UI, 6.44-6.87 million) in 2017, but in 2017, aggregate disability increased 4.7% to a total of 145 million (95% UI, 107-190 million) years lived with disability globally. Progress was uneven, and inequity increased, with low-SDI and low-middle–SDI locations experiencing 82.2% (95% UI, 81.6%-82.9%) of deaths, up from 70.9% (95% UI, 70.4%-71.4%) in 1990. The leading disaggregated causes of disability-adjusted life years in 2017 in the low-SDI quintile were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, malaria, and congenital birth defects, whereas neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, headache, dermatitis, and anxiety were highest-ranked in the high-SDI quintile. Conclusions and Relevance Mortality reductions over this 27-year period mean that children are more likely than ever to reach their 20th birthdays. The concomitant expansion of nonfatal health loss and epidemiological transition in children and adolescents, especially in low-SDI and middle-SDI countries, has the potential to increase already overburdened health systems, will affect the human capital potential of societies, and may influence the trajectory of socioeconomic development. Continued monitoring of child and adolescent health loss is crucial to sustain the progress of the past 27 years.
Published: 2019

13. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author: Abbafati, C, Abbas, KM, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahi, M, Abdollahpour, I, Abegaz, KH, Abolhassani, H, Aboyans, V, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abualhasan, A, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abushouk, AI, Adabi, M, Adekanmbi, V, Adeoye, AM, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Advani, SM, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Aghamir, SMK, Agrawal, A, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, MB, Akalu, TY, Akinyemi, RO, Akinyemiju, T, Akombi, B ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6410-4154, Akunna, CJ, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, S, Alam, T, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alemu, BW, Alhabib, KF, Ali, M, Ali, S, Alicandro, G, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Alizade, H, Aljunid, SM, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Alonso, J, Altirkawi, KA, Amini-Rarani, M, Amiri, F, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Anderson, JA, Andrei, CL, Andrei, T, Angus, C, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antonazzo, IC, Antonio, CAT, Antony, CM, Antriyandarti, E, Anvari, D, Anwer, R, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Aravkin, AY, Ariani, F, Armoon, B, Ärnlöv, J, Arzani, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asadi-Pooya, AA, Ashbaugh, C, Assmus, M, Atafar, Z, Atnafu, DD, Atout, MMDW, Ausloos, F, Ausloos, M, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Azari, S, Azarian, G, Azene, ZN, Badawi, A, Badiye, AD, Sachdev, Perminder ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9595-3220, Degenhardt, Louisa ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8513-2218, Pesudovs, Konrad ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6322-9369, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Resnikoff, Serge ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5866-4446, Ivers, Rebecca ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3448-662X, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Schutte, Alta ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9217-4937, Leung, Janni ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5816-2959, Peden, Amy ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6424-1511, Boufous, Soufiane ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5686-1729, Mitchell, Philip ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7954-5235, John, Oommen ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9008-1726, Godinho, Myron ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0081-2506, Iqbal, Usman ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0614-123X, Abbafati, C, Abbas, KM, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahi, M, Abdollahpour, I, Abegaz, KH, Abolhassani, H, Aboyans, V, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abualhasan, A, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abushouk, AI, Adabi, M, Adekanmbi, V, Adeoye, AM, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Advani, SM, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Aghamir, SMK, Agrawal, A, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, MB, Akalu, TY, Akinyemi, RO, Akinyemiju, T, Akombi, B ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6410-4154, Akunna, CJ, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, S, Alam, T, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alemu, BW, Alhabib, KF, Ali, M, Ali, S, Alicandro, G, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Alizade, H, Aljunid, SM, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Alonso, J, Altirkawi, KA, Amini-Rarani, M, Amiri, F, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Anderson, JA, Andrei, CL, Andrei, T, Angus, C, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antonazzo, IC, Antonio, CAT, Antony, CM, Antriyandarti, E, Anvari, D, Anwer, R, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Aravkin, AY, Ariani, F, Armoon, B, Ärnlöv, J, Arzani, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asadi-Pooya, AA, Ashbaugh, C, Assmus, M, Atafar, Z, Atnafu, DD, Atout, MMDW, Ausloos, F, Ausloos, M, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Azari, S, Azarian, G, Azene, ZN, Badawi, A, Badiye, AD, Sachdev, Perminder ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9595-3220, Degenhardt, Louisa ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8513-2218, Pesudovs, Konrad ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6322-9369, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Resnikoff, Serge ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5866-4446, Ivers, Rebecca ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3448-662X, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Schutte, Alta ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9217-4937, Leung, Janni ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5816-2959, Peden, Amy ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6424-1511, Boufous, Soufiane ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5686-1729, Mitchell, Philip ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7954-5235, John, Oommen ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9008-1726, Godinho, Myron ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0081-2506, and Iqbal, Usman ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0614-123X
Abstract: Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each
Published: 2020

14. Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: Methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Author: James, SL, Castle, CD, Dingels, ZV, Fox, JT, Hamilton, EB, Liu, Z, Roberts, NLS, Sylte, DO, Bertolacci, GJ, Cunningham, M, Henry, NJ, Legrand, KE, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abedi, A, Abegaz, KH, Abosetugn, AE, Abushouk, AI, Adebayo, OM, Adsuar, JC, Advani, SM, Agudelo-Botero, M, Ahmad, T, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Aichour, MTE, Alahdab, F, Alanezi, FM, Alema, NM, Alemu, BW, Alghnam, SA, Ali, BA, Ali, S, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Almasri, NA, Altirkawi, K, Amer, YSA, Andrei, CL, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antonio, CAT, Anvari, D, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Arefi, Z, Aremu, O, Ariani, F, Arora, A, Asaad, M, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Azarian, G, Badawi, A, Badiye, AD, Baig, AA, Bairwa, M, Bakhtiari, A, Balachandran, A, Banach, M, Banerjee, SK, Banik, PC, Banstola, A ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3185-9638, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Barzegar, A, Bayati, M, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Belete, H, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Berhe, K, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, P, Bhat, AG, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, ZA, Bibi, S, Bijani, A, Boloor, A, Borges, G, Borschmann, R, Borzì, AM, Boufous, S ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5686-1729, Braithwaite, D, Briko, NI, Brugha, T, Budhathoki, SS, Car, J, Cárdenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Castelpietra, G, Ivers, Rebecca ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3448-662X, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, Ye, Pengpeng ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2924-1436, Peden, Amy ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6424-1511, Resnikoff, Serge ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5866-4446, James, SL, Castle, CD, Dingels, ZV, Fox, JT, Hamilton, EB, Liu, Z, Roberts, NLS, Sylte, DO, Bertolacci, GJ, Cunningham, M, Henry, NJ, Legrand, KE, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abedi, A, Abegaz, KH, Abosetugn, AE, Abushouk, AI, Adebayo, OM, Adsuar, JC, Advani, SM, Agudelo-Botero, M, Ahmad, T, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Aichour, MTE, Alahdab, F, Alanezi, FM, Alema, NM, Alemu, BW, Alghnam, SA, Ali, BA, Ali, S, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Almasri, NA, Altirkawi, K, Amer, YSA, Andrei, CL, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antonio, CAT, Anvari, D, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Arefi, Z, Aremu, O, Ariani, F, Arora, A, Asaad, M, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Azarian, G, Badawi, A, Badiye, AD, Baig, AA, Bairwa, M, Bakhtiari, A, Balachandran, A, Banach, M, Banerjee, SK, Banik, PC, Banstola, A ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3185-9638, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Barzegar, A, Bayati, M, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Belete, H, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Berhe, K, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, P, Bhat, AG, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, ZA, Bibi, S, Bijani, A, Boloor, A, Borges, G, Borschmann, R, Borzì, AM, Boufous, S ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5686-1729, Braithwaite, D, Briko, NI, Brugha, T, Budhathoki, SS, Car, J, Cárdenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Castelpietra, G, Ivers, Rebecca ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3448-662X, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, Ye, Pengpeng ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2924-1436, Peden, Amy ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6424-1511, and Resnikoff, Serge ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5866-4446
Abstract: Background: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.
Published: 2020

15. The burden of unintentional drowning: global, regional and national estimates of mortality from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

Author: Franklin, RC, Peden, AE ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6424-1511, Hamilton, EB, Bisignano, C, Castle, CD, Dingels, ZV, Hay, SI, Liu, Z, Mokdad, AH, Roberts, NLS, Sylte, DO, Vos, T, Abady, GG, Abosetugn, AE, Ahmed, R, Alahdab, F, Andrei, CL, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Arba, AAK, Badiye, AD, Bakkannavar, SM, Banach, M, Banik, PC, Banstola, A ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3185-9638, Barker-Collo, SL, Barzegar, A, Bayati, M, Bhardwaj, P, Bhaumik, S ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9579-4453, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Boloor, A, Carvalho, F, Chowdhury, MAK, Chu, DT, Colquhoun, SM, Dagne, H, Dagnew, B, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daryani, A, Dharmaratne, SD, Forooshani, ZSD, Do, HT, Driscoll, TR, Eagan, AW, El-Khatib, Z, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Gebremichael, B, Gupta, G, Haagsma, JA, Hassan, S, Hendrie, D, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Holla, R, Hostiuc, S, Househ, M, Ilesanmi, OS, Inbaraj, LR, Irvani, SSN, Islam, MM, Ivers, RQ ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3448-662X, Jayatilleke, AU, Joukar, F, Kalhor, R, Kanchan, T, Kapoor, N, Kasaeian, A, Khan, M, Khan, EA, Khubchandani, J, Krishan, K, Kumar, GA, Lauriola, P, Lopez, AD, Madadin, M, Majdan, M, Maled, V, Manafi, N, Manafi, A, McKee, M, Meles, HG, Menezes, RG, Meretoja, TJ, Miller, TR, Mithra, P, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohebi, F, Molokhia, M, Mustafa, G, Negoi, I, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, HLT, Olagunju, AT, Olagunju, TO, Ye, Pengpeng ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2924-1436, Franklin, RC, Peden, AE ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6424-1511, Hamilton, EB, Bisignano, C, Castle, CD, Dingels, ZV, Hay, SI, Liu, Z, Mokdad, AH, Roberts, NLS, Sylte, DO, Vos, T, Abady, GG, Abosetugn, AE, Ahmed, R, Alahdab, F, Andrei, CL, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Arba, AAK, Badiye, AD, Bakkannavar, SM, Banach, M, Banik, PC, Banstola, A ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3185-9638, Barker-Collo, SL, Barzegar, A, Bayati, M, Bhardwaj, P, Bhaumik, S ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9579-4453, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Boloor, A, Carvalho, F, Chowdhury, MAK, Chu, DT, Colquhoun, SM, Dagne, H, Dagnew, B, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daryani, A, Dharmaratne, SD, Forooshani, ZSD, Do, HT, Driscoll, TR, Eagan, AW, El-Khatib, Z, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Gebremichael, B, Gupta, G, Haagsma, JA, Hassan, S, Hendrie, D, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Holla, R, Hostiuc, S, Househ, M, Ilesanmi, OS, Inbaraj, LR, Irvani, SSN, Islam, MM, Ivers, RQ ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3448-662X, Jayatilleke, AU, Joukar, F, Kalhor, R, Kanchan, T, Kapoor, N, Kasaeian, A, Khan, M, Khan, EA, Khubchandani, J, Krishan, K, Kumar, GA, Lauriola, P, Lopez, AD, Madadin, M, Majdan, M, Maled, V, Manafi, N, Manafi, A, McKee, M, Meles, HG, Menezes, RG, Meretoja, TJ, Miller, TR, Mithra, P, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohebi, F, Molokhia, M, Mustafa, G, Negoi, I, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, HLT, Olagunju, AT, Olagunju, TO, and Ye, Pengpeng ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2924-1436
Abstract: Background Drowning is a leading cause of injury-related mortality globally. Unintentional drowning (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes W65-74 and ICD9 E910) is one of the 30 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive causes of injury-related mortality in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This study's objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017. Methods Unintentional drowning from GBD 2017 was estimated for cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), age, sex, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, and trends from 1990 to 2017. GBD 2017 used standard GBD methods for estimating mortality from drowning. Results Globally, unintentional drowning mortality decreased by 44.5% between 1990 and 2017, from 531 956 (uncertainty interval (UI): 484 107 to 572 854) to 295 210 (284 493 to 306 187) deaths. Global age-standardised mortality rates decreased 57.4%, from 9.3 (8.5 to 10.0) in 1990 to 4.0 (3.8 to 4.1) per 100 000 per annum in 2017. Unintentional drowning-associated mortality was generally higher in children, males and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh accounted for 51.2% of all drowning deaths in 2017. Oceania was the region with the highest rate of age-standardised YLLs in 2017, with 45 434 (40 850 to 50 539) YLLs per 100 000 across both sexes. Conclusions There has been a decline in global drowning rates. This study shows that the decline was not consistent across countries. The results reinforce the need for continued and improved policy, prevention and research efforts, with a focus on low- and middle-income countries.
Published: 2020

16. Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Haagsma, JA, James, SL, Castle, CD, Dingels, ZV, Fox, JT, Hamilton, EB, Liu, Z, Lucchesi, LR, Roberts, NLS, Sylte, DO, Adebayo, OM, Ahmadi, A, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, MTE, Alahdab, F, Alghnam, SA, Aljunid, SM, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Appiah, SCY, Aremu, O, Arora, A, Asayesh, H, Assadi, R, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Balalla, S, Banstola, A ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3185-9638, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Benjet, C, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Bhaumik, S ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9579-4453, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Borges, G, Borschmann, R, Bose, D, Boufous, S ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5686-1729, Brazinova, A, Rincon, JCC, Cárdenas, R, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Catalá-López, F, Choi, JYJ, Christopher, DJ, Crowe, CS, Dalal, K, Daryani, A, Davitoiu, DV, Degenhardt, L ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8513-2218, De Leo, D, De Neve, JW, Deribe, K, Dessie, GA, deVeber, GA, Dharmaratne, SD, Doan, LP, Dolan, KA ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9848-807X, Driscoll, TR, Dubey, M, El-Khatib, Z, Ellingsen, CL, El Sayed Zaki, M, Endries, AY, Eskandarieh, S, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, SM, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Franklin, RC, Fukumoto, T, Gezae, KE, Gill, TK, Goulart, AC, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Bidgoli, HH, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Haro, JM, Hassankhani, H, Hassen, HY, Havmoeller, R, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Pesudovs, Konrad ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6322-9369, Ivers, Rebecca ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3448-662X, Resnikoff, Serge ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5866-4446, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, Haagsma, JA, James, SL, Castle, CD, Dingels, ZV, Fox, JT, Hamilton, EB, Liu, Z, Lucchesi, LR, Roberts, NLS, Sylte, DO, Adebayo, OM, Ahmadi, A, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, MTE, Alahdab, F, Alghnam, SA, Aljunid, SM, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Appiah, SCY, Aremu, O, Arora, A, Asayesh, H, Assadi, R, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Balalla, S, Banstola, A ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3185-9638, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Benjet, C, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Bhaumik, S ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9579-4453, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Borges, G, Borschmann, R, Bose, D, Boufous, S ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5686-1729, Brazinova, A, Rincon, JCC, Cárdenas, R, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Catalá-López, F, Choi, JYJ, Christopher, DJ, Crowe, CS, Dalal, K, Daryani, A, Davitoiu, DV, Degenhardt, L ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8513-2218, De Leo, D, De Neve, JW, Deribe, K, Dessie, GA, deVeber, GA, Dharmaratne, SD, Doan, LP, Dolan, KA ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9848-807X, Driscoll, TR, Dubey, M, El-Khatib, Z, Ellingsen, CL, El Sayed Zaki, M, Endries, AY, Eskandarieh, S, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, SM, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Franklin, RC, Fukumoto, T, Gezae, KE, Gill, TK, Goulart, AC, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Bidgoli, HH, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Haro, JM, Hassankhani, H, Hassen, HY, Havmoeller, R, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Pesudovs, Konrad ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6322-9369, Ivers, Rebecca ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3448-662X, Resnikoff, Serge ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5866-4446, and Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175
Abstract: Background The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. results For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. Conclusions The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.
Published: 2020

17. Department of Error: Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2020) 395(10239) (1779–1801), (S0140673620301148), (10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30114-8))

Author: Reiner, RC, Wiens, KE, Deshpande, A, Baumann, MM, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Troeger, CE, Earl, L, Munro, SB, Abate, D, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, G, Abegaz, KH, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, JR, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Alemu, ZA, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anegago, MT, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Ashagre, AF, Atalay, HT, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayele, AA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bassat, Q, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, YA, Pesudovs, Konrad ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6322-9369, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Karki, Surendra ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1561-4171, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Reiner, RC, Wiens, KE, Deshpande, A, Baumann, MM, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Troeger, CE, Earl, L, Munro, SB, Abate, D, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, G, Abegaz, KH, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, JR, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Alemu, ZA, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anegago, MT, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Ashagre, AF, Atalay, HT, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayele, AA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bassat, Q, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, YA, Pesudovs, Konrad ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6322-9369, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Karki, Surendra ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1561-4171, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, and Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323
Abstract: Reiner RC Jr, Hay SI. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2020; 395: 1779–801—In this Article, the author byline has been amended to Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators. This correction has been made to the online version as of June 4, 2020, and the printed version is correct.
Published: 2020

18. Author Correction: Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017 (Nature Medicine, (2020), 26, 5, (750-759), 10.1038/s41591-020-0807-6)

Author: Kinyoki, DK, Ross, JM, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Munro, SB, Schaeffer, LE, Abbasalizad-Farhangi, M, Abbasi, M, Abbastabar, H, Abdelalim, A, Abdoli, A, Abdollahi, M, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, ND, Abebo, TA, Abegaz, KH, Abolhassani, H, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abushouk, AI, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebiyi, AO, Adedeji, IA, Adekanmbi, V, Adeoye, AM, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Aduroja, PE, Advani, SM, Afarideh, M, Aghaali, M, Agrawal, A, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, S, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akinyemiju, T, Akombi, B ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6410-4154, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, S, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Rabanal, JEA, Alema, NM, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Alizade, H, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Al-Raddadi, RM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amegah, AK, Amini, S, Rarani, MA, Amiri, F, Amit, AML, Anber, NH, Andrei, CL, Ansari, F, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Anteneh, ZA, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Anvari, D, Anwer, R, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Araya, EM, Arefi, Z, Aremu, O, Ärnlöv, J, Arzani, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asadi-Pooya, AA, Asgari, S, Asghari, B, Ashagre, AF, Asrat, AA, Ataeinia, B, Atalay, HT, Atnafu, DD, Atout, MMW, Ausloos, M, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Karki, Surendra ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1561-4171, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, John, Oommen ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9008-1726, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Schutte, Alta ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9217-4937, Resnikoff, Serge ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5866-4446, Kinyoki, DK, Ross, JM, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Munro, SB, Schaeffer, LE, Abbasalizad-Farhangi, M, Abbasi, M, Abbastabar, H, Abdelalim, A, Abdoli, A, Abdollahi, M, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, ND, Abebo, TA, Abegaz, KH, Abolhassani, H, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abushouk, AI, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebiyi, AO, Adedeji, IA, Adekanmbi, V, Adeoye, AM, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Aduroja, PE, Advani, SM, Afarideh, M, Aghaali, M, Agrawal, A, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, S, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akinyemiju, T, Akombi, B ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6410-4154, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, S, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Rabanal, JEA, Alema, NM, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Alizade, H, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Al-Raddadi, RM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amegah, AK, Amini, S, Rarani, MA, Amiri, F, Amit, AML, Anber, NH, Andrei, CL, Ansari, F, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Anteneh, ZA, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Anvari, D, Anwer, R, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Araya, EM, Arefi, Z, Aremu, O, Ärnlöv, J, Arzani, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asadi-Pooya, AA, Asgari, S, Asghari, B, Ashagre, AF, Asrat, AA, Ataeinia, B, Atalay, HT, Atnafu, DD, Atout, MMW, Ausloos, M, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Karki, Surendra ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1561-4171, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, John, Oommen ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9008-1726, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Schutte, Alta ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9217-4937, and Resnikoff, Serge ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5866-4446
Abstract: An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
Published: 2020

19. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Reiner, RC, Wiens, KE, Deshpande, A, Baumann, MM, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Troeger, CE, Earl, L, Munro, SB, Abate, D, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, G, Abegaz, KH, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, JR, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Alemu, ZA, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anegago, MT, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Ashagre, AF, Atalay, HT, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayele, AA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bassat, Q, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, YA, Karki, Surendra ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1561-4171, Pesudovs, Konrad ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6322-9369, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Bhaumik, Soumyadeep ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9579-4453, Muluneh, Atalay Goshu ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2556-4158, Reiner, RC, Wiens, KE, Deshpande, A, Baumann, MM, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Troeger, CE, Earl, L, Munro, SB, Abate, D, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, G, Abegaz, KH, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, JR, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Alemu, ZA, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anegago, MT, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Ashagre, AF, Atalay, HT, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayele, AA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bassat, Q, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, YA, Karki, Surendra ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1561-4171, Pesudovs, Konrad ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6322-9369, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Bhaumik, Soumyadeep ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9579-4453, and Muluneh, Atalay Goshu ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2556-4158
Abstract: Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrh
Published: 2020

20. Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

Author: Kinyoki, DK, Ross, JM, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Munro, SB, Schaeffer, LE, Abbasalizad-Farhangi, M, Abbasi, M, Abbastabar, H, Abdelalim, A, Abdoli, A, Abdollahi, M, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, ND, Abebo, TA, Abegaz, KH, Abolhassani, H, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abushouk, AI, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebiyi, AO, Adedeji, IA, Adekanmbi, V, Adeoye, AM, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Aduroja, PE, Advani, SM, Afarideh, M, Aghaali, M, Agrawal, A, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, S, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akinyemiju, T, Akombi, B ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6410-4154, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, S, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Rabanal, JEA, Alema, NM, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Alizade, H, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Al-Raddadi, RM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amegah, AK, Amini, S, Rarani, MA, Amiri, F, Amit, AML, Anber, NH, Andrei, CL, Ansari, F, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Anteneh, ZA, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Anvari, D, Anwer, R, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Araya, EM, Arefi, Z, Aremu, O, Ärnlöv, J, Arzani, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asadi-Pooya, AA, Asgari, S, Asghari, B, Ashagre, AF, Asrat, AA, Ataeinia, B, Atalay, HT, Atnafu, DD, Atout, MMW, Ausloos, M, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Karki, Surendra ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1561-4171, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Schutte, Alta ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9217-4937, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, John, Oommen ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9008-1726, Resnikoff, Serge ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5866-4446, Iqbal, Usman ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0614-123X, Kinyoki, DK, Ross, JM, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Munro, SB, Schaeffer, LE, Abbasalizad-Farhangi, M, Abbasi, M, Abbastabar, H, Abdelalim, A, Abdoli, A, Abdollahi, M, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, ND, Abebo, TA, Abegaz, KH, Abolhassani, H, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abushouk, AI, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebiyi, AO, Adedeji, IA, Adekanmbi, V, Adeoye, AM, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Aduroja, PE, Advani, SM, Afarideh, M, Aghaali, M, Agrawal, A, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, S, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akinyemiju, T, Akombi, B ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6410-4154, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, S, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Rabanal, JEA, Alema, NM, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Alizade, H, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Al-Raddadi, RM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amegah, AK, Amini, S, Rarani, MA, Amiri, F, Amit, AML, Anber, NH, Andrei, CL, Ansari, F, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Anteneh, ZA, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Anvari, D, Anwer, R, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Araya, EM, Arefi, Z, Aremu, O, Ärnlöv, J, Arzani, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asadi-Pooya, AA, Asgari, S, Asghari, B, Ashagre, AF, Asrat, AA, Ataeinia, B, Atalay, HT, Atnafu, DD, Atout, MMW, Ausloos, M, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Karki, Surendra ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1561-4171, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Schutte, Alta ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9217-4937, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, John, Oommen ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9008-1726, Resnikoff, Serge ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5866-4446, and Iqbal, Usman ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0614-123X
Abstract: A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic.
Published: 2020

21. Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: Results from the global burden of disease study 2017

Author: James, SL, Castle, CD, Dingels, ZV, Fox, JT, Hamilton, EB, Liu, Z, Roberts, NLS, Sylte, DO, Henry, NJ, LeGrand, KE, Abdelalim, A, Abdoli, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abedi, A, Abosetugn, AE, Abushouk, AI, Adebayo, OM, Agudelo-Botero, M, Ahmad, T, Ahmed, R, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, MTE, Alahdab, F, Alamene, GM, Alanezi, FM, Alebel, A, Alema, NM, Alghnam, SA, Al-Hajj, S, Ali, BA, Ali, S, Alikhani, M, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Almasri, NA, Altirkawi, K, Amer, YSA, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antonio, CAT, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Arefi, Z, Aremu, O, Ariani, F, Arora, A, Asaad, M, Asghari, B, Awoke, N, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Azari, S, Azarian, G, Badawi, A, Badiye, AD, Bagli, E, Baig, AA, Bairwa, M, Bakhtiari, A, Balachandran, A, Banach, M, Banerjee, SK, Banik, PC, Banstola, A ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3185-9638, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Barrero, LH, Barzegar, A, Bayati, M, Baye, BA, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekuma, TT, Belete, H, Benjet, C, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Berhe, K, Bhardwaj, P, Bhat, AG, Bhattacharyya, K, Bibi, S, Bijani, A, Sayeed, MSB, Borges, G, Borzì, AM, Boufous, S ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5686-1729, Brazinova, A, Briko, NI, Budhathoki, SS, Car, J, Cárdenas, R, Carvalho, F, Ivers, Rebecca ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3448-662X, Peden, Amy ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6424-1511, Degenhardt, Louisa ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8513-2218, Resnikoff, Serge ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5866-4446, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, Ye, Pengpeng ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2924-1436, Muluneh, Atalay Goshu ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2556-4158, James, SL, Castle, CD, Dingels, ZV, Fox, JT, Hamilton, EB, Liu, Z, Roberts, NLS, Sylte, DO, Henry, NJ, LeGrand, KE, Abdelalim, A, Abdoli, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abedi, A, Abosetugn, AE, Abushouk, AI, Adebayo, OM, Agudelo-Botero, M, Ahmad, T, Ahmed, R, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, MTE, Alahdab, F, Alamene, GM, Alanezi, FM, Alebel, A, Alema, NM, Alghnam, SA, Al-Hajj, S, Ali, BA, Ali, S, Alikhani, M, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Almasri, NA, Altirkawi, K, Amer, YSA, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antonio, CAT, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Arefi, Z, Aremu, O, Ariani, F, Arora, A, Asaad, M, Asghari, B, Awoke, N, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Azari, S, Azarian, G, Badawi, A, Badiye, AD, Bagli, E, Baig, AA, Bairwa, M, Bakhtiari, A, Balachandran, A, Banach, M, Banerjee, SK, Banik, PC, Banstola, A ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3185-9638, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Barrero, LH, Barzegar, A, Bayati, M, Baye, BA, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekuma, TT, Belete, H, Benjet, C, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Berhe, K, Bhardwaj, P, Bhat, AG, Bhattacharyya, K, Bibi, S, Bijani, A, Sayeed, MSB, Borges, G, Borzì, AM, Boufous, S ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5686-1729, Brazinova, A, Briko, NI, Budhathoki, SS, Car, J, Cárdenas, R, Carvalho, F, Ivers, Rebecca ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3448-662X, Peden, Amy ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6424-1511, Degenhardt, Louisa ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8513-2218, Resnikoff, Serge ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5866-4446, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, Ye, Pengpeng ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2924-1436, and Muluneh, Atalay Goshu ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2556-4158
Abstract: Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.
Published: 2020

22. Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author: Lozano, R, Fullman, N, Mumford, JE, Knight, M, Barthelemy, CM, Abbafati, C, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdollahi, M, Abedi, A, Abolhassani, H, Abosetugn, AE, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abu Haimed, AK, Abushouk, AI, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adelson, J, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Advani, SM, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agasthi, P, Aghamir, SMK, Agrawal, A, Ahmad, T, Akinyemi, RO, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Albertson, SB, Alemu, YM, Alhassan, RK, Ali, M, Ali, S, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Alla, F, Almadi, MAH, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Almasri, NA, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Almulhim, AM, Alonso, J, Al-Raddadi, RM, Altirkawi, KA, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amini, S, Amini-Rarani, M, Amiri, F, Amit, AML, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Ansari, F, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antonio, CAT, Antony, CM, Antriyandarti, E, Anvari, D, Anwer, R, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Aravkin, AY, Aremu, O, Ärnlöv, J, Asaad, M, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asadi-Pooya, AA, Athari, SS, Atout, MMDW, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Aynalem, GL, Ayza, MA, Azari, S, Azzopardi, PS, B, DB, Babaee, E, Badiye, AD, Bahrami, MA, Baig, AA, Bakhshaei, MH, Bakhtiari, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balachandran, A, Banach, M, Banerjee, SK, Banik, PC, Godinho, Myron ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0081-2506, Sachdev, Perminder ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9595-3220, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Mitchell, Philip ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7954-5235, Schutte, Alta ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9217-4937, Peden, Amy ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6424-1511, Iqbal, Usman ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0614-123X, Lozano, R, Fullman, N, Mumford, JE, Knight, M, Barthelemy, CM, Abbafati, C, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdollahi, M, Abedi, A, Abolhassani, H, Abosetugn, AE, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abu Haimed, AK, Abushouk, AI, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adelson, J, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Advani, SM, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agasthi, P, Aghamir, SMK, Agrawal, A, Ahmad, T, Akinyemi, RO, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Albertson, SB, Alemu, YM, Alhassan, RK, Ali, M, Ali, S, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Alla, F, Almadi, MAH, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Almasri, NA, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Almulhim, AM, Alonso, J, Al-Raddadi, RM, Altirkawi, KA, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amini, S, Amini-Rarani, M, Amiri, F, Amit, AML, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Ansari, F, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antonio, CAT, Antony, CM, Antriyandarti, E, Anvari, D, Anwer, R, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Aravkin, AY, Aremu, O, Ärnlöv, J, Asaad, M, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asadi-Pooya, AA, Athari, SS, Atout, MMDW, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Aynalem, GL, Ayza, MA, Azari, S, Azzopardi, PS, B, DB, Babaee, E, Badiye, AD, Bahrami, MA, Baig, AA, Bakhshaei, MH, Bakhtiari, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balachandran, A, Banach, M, Banerjee, SK, Banik, PC, Godinho, Myron ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0081-2506, Sachdev, Perminder ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9595-3220, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Mitchell, Philip ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7954-5235, Schutte, Alta ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9217-4937, Peden, Amy ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6424-1511, and Iqbal, Usman ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0614-123X
Abstract: Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC e
Published: 2020

23. Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Author: Wiens, KE, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Johnson, KB, Baumann, MM, Schaeffer, LE, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abegaz, KH, Abejie, AN, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abualhasan, A, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adamu, AA, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmad, S, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Akalu, TY, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, N, Alam, S, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Ali, BA, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, KA, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Anoushiravani, A, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antony, B, Antriyandarti, E, Arabloo, J, Aref, HMA, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Arora, A, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atalay, HT, Athari, SS, Athari, SM, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Azzopardi, PS, Babaee, E, Babalola, TK, Badawi, A, Bairwa, M, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Banoub, JAM, Barac, A, Bärnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Basu, S, Bay, VD, Bayati, M, Baye, E, Bedi, N, Beheshti, M, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, BB, Belayneh, YM, Bell, ML, Boufous, Soufiane ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5686-1729, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Karki, Surendra ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1561-4171, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Naidoo, Kovin ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8261-9779, Bhaumik, Soumyadeep ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9579-4453, Resnikoff, Serge ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5866-4446, Iqbal, Usman ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0614-123X, Wiens, KE, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Johnson, KB, Baumann, MM, Schaeffer, LE, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abegaz, KH, Abejie, AN, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abualhasan, A, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adamu, AA, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmad, S, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Akalu, TY, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, N, Alam, S, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Ali, BA, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, KA, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Anoushiravani, A, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antony, B, Antriyandarti, E, Arabloo, J, Aref, HMA, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Arora, A, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atalay, HT, Athari, SS, Athari, SM, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Azzopardi, PS, Babaee, E, Babalola, TK, Badawi, A, Bairwa, M, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Banoub, JAM, Barac, A, Bärnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Basu, S, Bay, VD, Bayati, M, Baye, E, Bedi, N, Beheshti, M, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, BB, Belayneh, YM, Bell, ML, Boufous, Soufiane ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5686-1729, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Karki, Surendra ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1561-4171, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Naidoo, Kovin ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8261-9779, Bhaumik, Soumyadeep ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9579-4453, Resnikoff, Serge ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5866-4446, and Iqbal, Usman ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0614-123X
Abstract: Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings: While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT covera
Published: 2020

24. Department of Error: Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2020) 395(10239) (1779–1801)

Author: Reiner, RC, Wiens, KE, Deshpande, A, Baumann, MM, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Troeger, CE, Earl, L, Munro, SB, Abate, D, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, G, Abegaz, KH, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, JR, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Alemu, ZA, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anegago, MT, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Ashagre, AF, Atalay, HT, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayele, AA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bassat, Q, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, YA, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Reiner, RC, Wiens, KE, Deshpande, A, Baumann, MM, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Troeger, CE, Earl, L, Munro, SB, Abate, D, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, G, Abegaz, KH, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, JR, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Alemu, ZA, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anegago, MT, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Ashagre, AF, Atalay, HT, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayele, AA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bassat, Q, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, YA, and Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
Published: 2020

25. The global distribution of lymphatic filariasis, 2000–18: a geospatial analysis

Author: Deshpande, A, Miller-Petrie, MK, Johnson, KB, Abdoli, A, Abrigo, MRM, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adinarayanan, S, Ahmadpour, E, Ahmed, MB, Akalu, TY, Alanzi, TM, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Amit, AML, Anber, NH, Ancuceanu, R, Andualem, Z, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Anvari, D, Appiah, S, Arabloo, J, Arnold, BF, Ausloos, M, Ayanore, MA, Badirzadeh, A, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Baraki, AG, Bärnighausen, TW, Bayati, M, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bockarie, MJ, Bisanzio, D, Biswas, RK, Bohlouli, S, Cano, J, Carvalho, F, Chattu, VK, Chavshin, C, Cormier, NM, Cromwell, EA, Schmidt, CA, Kwong, KT, Damiani, G, Dandona, R, Dandona, L, Darwesh, AM, Daryani, A, Dash, AP, Deribe, K, Dessu, B, Dhimal, M, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Do, HT, Earl, L, El Tantawi, M, Faraj, A, Fattahi, N, Fernandes, E, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Foroutan, M, Guo, Y, Hailu, GB, Hasaballah, AI, Hassankhani, H, Herteliu, C, de Hidru, HD, Hon, J, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Humayun, A, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, MD, Iqbal, U, Irvani, SSN, Shariful Islam, Sheikh, Jha, RP, Ji, JS, Jozwiak, JJ, Kabir, A, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Karami Matin, B, Karch, A, Karimi, S, Kasaeian, A, Kazemi Karyani, A, Kayode, GA, Kelbore, AG, Khafaie, MA, Khalilov, R, Deshpande, A, Miller-Petrie, MK, Johnson, KB, Abdoli, A, Abrigo, MRM, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adinarayanan, S, Ahmadpour, E, Ahmed, MB, Akalu, TY, Alanzi, TM, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Amit, AML, Anber, NH, Ancuceanu, R, Andualem, Z, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Anvari, D, Appiah, S, Arabloo, J, Arnold, BF, Ausloos, M, Ayanore, MA, Badirzadeh, A, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Baraki, AG, Bärnighausen, TW, Bayati, M, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bockarie, MJ, Bisanzio, D, Biswas, RK, Bohlouli, S, Cano, J, Carvalho, F, Chattu, VK, Chavshin, C, Cormier, NM, Cromwell, EA, Schmidt, CA, Kwong, KT, Damiani, G, Dandona, R, Dandona, L, Darwesh, AM, Daryani, A, Dash, AP, Deribe, K, Dessu, B, Dhimal, M, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Do, HT, Earl, L, El Tantawi, M, Faraj, A, Fattahi, N, Fernandes, E, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Foroutan, M, Guo, Y, Hailu, GB, Hasaballah, AI, Hassankhani, H, Herteliu, C, de Hidru, HD, Hon, J, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Humayun, A, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, MD, Iqbal, U, Irvani, SSN, Shariful Islam, Sheikh, Jha, RP, Ji, JS, Jozwiak, JJ, Kabir, A, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Karami Matin, B, Karch, A, Karimi, S, Kasaeian, A, Kazemi Karyani, A, Kayode, GA, Kelbore, AG, Khafaie, MA, and Khalilov, R
Abstract: Background: Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disability through disruption of the lymphatic system. This disease is caused by parasitic filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquitos. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antihelmintics is recommended by WHO to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem. This study aims to produce the first geospatial estimates of the global prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection over time, to quantify progress towards elimination, and to identify geographical variation in distribution of infection. Methods: A global dataset of georeferenced surveyed locations was used to model annual 2000–18 lymphatic filariasis prevalence for 73 current or previously endemic countries. We applied Bayesian model-based geostatistics and time series methods to generate spatially continuous estimates of global all-age 2000–18 prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection mapped at a resolution of 5 km2 and aggregated to estimate total number of individuals infected. Findings: We used 14 927 datapoints to fit the geospatial models. An estimated 199 million total individuals (95% uncertainty interval 174–234 million) worldwide were infected with lymphatic filariasis in 2000, with totals for WHO regions ranging from 3·1 million (1·6–5·7 million) in the region of the Americas to 107 million (91–134 million) in the South-East Asia region. By 2018, an estimated 51 million individuals (43–63 million) were infected. Broad declines in prevalence are observed globally, but focal areas in Africa and southeast Asia remain less likely to have attained infection prevalence thresholds proposed to achieve local elimination. Interpretation: Although the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection has declined since 2000, MDA is still necessary across large populations in Africa and Asia. Our mapped estimates can be used to identify areas where the p
Published: 2020

26. Global and regional burden of cancer in 2016 arising from occupational exposure to selected carcinogens: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author: Driscoll, T, Rushton, L, Hutchings, SJ, Straif, K, Steenland, K, Abate, D, Abbafati, C, Acharya, D, Adebayo, OM, Afshari, M, Akinyemiju, T, Alahdab, F, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Aremu, O, Ataro, Z, Quintanilla, BPA, Banoub, JAM, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Barrero, LH, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Benavides, FG, Beuran, M, Bhattacharyya, K, Bijani, A, Cárdenas, R, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Cerin, E, Cooper, C, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dang, AK, Daryani, A, Desalegn, BB, Dharmaratne, SD, Dubljanin, E, El-Khatib, Z, Eskandarieh, S, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, SM, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fukumoto, T, Gallus, S, Gebremichael, TG, Gezae, KE, Gill, TK, Goulart, BNG, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Hamzeh, B, Hassankhani, H, Hawkins, DM, Hay, SI, Hegazy, MI, Henok, A, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Rad, EH, Hossain, N, Hosseini, M, Hostiuc, S, Hu, G, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Shariful Islam, Sheikh, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Jonas, JB, Shushtari, ZJ, Jozwiak, JJ, Jürisson, M, Kahsay, A, Karami, M, Karimi, N, Kasaeian, A, Kawakami, N, Khader, YS, Khan, EA, Khubchandani, J, Kim, YJ, Kisa, A, Defo, BK, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Lami, FH, Latifi, A, Leigh, J, Driscoll, T, Rushton, L, Hutchings, SJ, Straif, K, Steenland, K, Abate, D, Abbafati, C, Acharya, D, Adebayo, OM, Afshari, M, Akinyemiju, T, Alahdab, F, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Aremu, O, Ataro, Z, Quintanilla, BPA, Banoub, JAM, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Barrero, LH, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Benavides, FG, Beuran, M, Bhattacharyya, K, Bijani, A, Cárdenas, R, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Cerin, E, Cooper, C, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dang, AK, Daryani, A, Desalegn, BB, Dharmaratne, SD, Dubljanin, E, El-Khatib, Z, Eskandarieh, S, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, SM, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fukumoto, T, Gallus, S, Gebremichael, TG, Gezae, KE, Gill, TK, Goulart, BNG, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Hamzeh, B, Hassankhani, H, Hawkins, DM, Hay, SI, Hegazy, MI, Henok, A, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Rad, EH, Hossain, N, Hosseini, M, Hostiuc, S, Hu, G, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Shariful Islam, Sheikh, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Jonas, JB, Shushtari, ZJ, Jozwiak, JJ, Jürisson, M, Kahsay, A, Karami, M, Karimi, N, Kasaeian, A, Kawakami, N, Khader, YS, Khan, EA, Khubchandani, J, Kim, YJ, Kisa, A, Defo, BK, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Lami, FH, Latifi, A, and Leigh, J
Abstract: Objectives: This study provides an overview of the influence of occupational risk factors on the global burden of disease as estimated by the occupational component of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016 study. Methods: The GBD 2016 study estimated the burden in terms of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) arising from the effects of occupational risk factors (carcinogens; asthmagens; particulate matter, gases and fumes (PMGF); secondhand smoke (SHS); noise; ergonomic risk factors for low back pain; risk factors for injury). A population attributable fraction (PAF) approach was used for most risk factors. Results: In 2016, globally, an estimated 1.53 (95% uncertainty interval 1.39-1.68) million deaths and 76.1 (66.3-86.3) million DALYs were attributable to the included occupational risk factors, accounting for 2.8% of deaths and 3.2% of DALYs from all causes. Most deaths were attributable to PMGF, carcinogens (particularly asbestos), injury risk factors and SHS. Most DALYs were attributable to injury risk factors and ergonomic exposures. Men and persons 55 years or older were most affected. PAFs ranged from 26.8% for low back pain from ergonomic risk factors and 19.6% for hearing loss from noise to 3.4% for carcinogens. DALYs per capita were highest in Oceania, Southeast Asia and Central sub-S aharan Africa. On a per capita basis, between 1990 and 2016 there was an overall decrease of about 31% in deaths and 25% in DALYs. Conclusions: Occupational exposures continue to cause an important health burden worldwide, justifying the need for ongoing prevention and control initiatives.
Published: 2020

27. Department of Error.

Author: Reiner, RC, Wiens, KE, Deshpande, A, Baumann, MM, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Troeger, CE, Earl, L, Munro, SB, Abate, D, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, G, Abegaz, KH, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, JR, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Alemu, ZA, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anegago, MT, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Ashagre, AF, Atalay, HT, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayele, AA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bassat, Q, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, YA, Reiner, RC, Wiens, KE, Deshpande, A, Baumann, MM, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Troeger, CE, Earl, L, Munro, SB, Abate, D, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, G, Abegaz, KH, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, JR, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Alemu, ZA, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anegago, MT, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Ashagre, AF, Atalay, HT, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayele, AA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bassat, Q, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, and Bekele, YA
Abstract: Reiner RC Jr, Hay SI. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2020; 395: 1779–801—In this Article, the author byline has been amended to Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators. This correction has been made to the online version as of June 4, 2020, and the printed version is correct.
Published: 2020

28. Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries

Author: Kinyoki, DK, Osgood-Zimmerman, AE, Pickering, BV, Schaeffer, LE, Marczak, LB, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Collison, ML, Henry, NJ, Abebe, Z, Adamu, AA, Adekanmbi, V, Ahmadi, K, Ajumobi, O, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Altirkawi, K, Amini, S, Andrei, CL, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atique, S, Ausloos, M, Avila, M, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Azari, S, Badawi, A, Barnighausen, TW, Bassat, Q, Baye, K, Bedi, N, Bekele, BB, Bell, ML, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgo, B, Bikbov, B, Briko, AN, Britton, G, Burstein, R, Butt, ZA, Car, J, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Castro, F, Cerin, E, Chipeta, MG, Chu, D-T, Cork, MA, Cromwell, EA, Cuevas-Nasu, L, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daoud, F, Das Gupta, R, Weaver, ND, De Leo, D, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Desalegn, BB, Deshpande, A, Desta, M, Diaz, D, Dinberu, MT, Doku, DT, Dubey, M, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Effiong, A, Zaki, MES, El Tantawi, M, El-Khatib, Z, Eshrati, B, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Fukumoto, T, Gebrehiwot, TT, Gezae, KE, Ghajar, A, Gill, PS, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hall, JB, Hamidi, S, Henok, A, Prado, BH, Herrero, M, Herteliu, C, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hu, G, Islam, SMS, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Jonas, JB, Jozwiak, JJ, Kahsay, A, Kanchan, T, Karami, M, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khan, EA, Khater, MM, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kisa, A, Kochhar, S, Kosen, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Lad, SD, Lami, FH, Lee, PH, Levine, AJ, Li, S, Linn, S, Lodha, R, Abd El Razek, HM, Abd El Razek, MM, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, DC, Mamun, AA, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masaka, A, Massenburg, BB, Mayala, BK, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Melku, M, Mendoza, W, Mensah, GA, Miazgowski, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Moodley, Y, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Mueller, UO, Murray, CJL, Mustafa, G, Naderi, M, Naghavi, M, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, HLT, Nguyen, LH, Nguyen, SH, Nie, J, Nnaji, CA, Noubiap, JJ, Shiadeh, MN, Nyasulu, PS, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Ortiz-Panozo, E, Otstavnov, SS, Mahesh, PA, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pati, S, Patil, ST, Patton, GC, Perico, N, Pigott, DM, Pirsaheb, M, Piwoz, EG, Postma, MJ, Pourshams, A, Prakash, S, Quintana, H, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rai, RK, Rajati, F, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawat, R, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Roever, L, Ross, JM, Rostami, A, Sadat, N, Safari, Y, Safdarian, M, Sahebkar, A, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salimzadeh, H, Samy, AM, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Schipp, MF, Schwebel, DC, Senbeta, AM, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Levy, TS, Shamsi, M, Sharafi, K, Sharma, R, Sheikh, A, Shil, A, Silva, DAS, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Soofi, M, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadesse, BT, Temsah, M-H, Terkawi, AS, Tessema, ZT, Thorne-Lyman, AL, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Tran, KB, Ullah, I, Uthman, OA, Vaezghasemi, M, Vaezi, A, Valdez, PR, Vanderheide, J, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vu, GT, Vu, LG, Waheed, Y, Walson, JL, Wang, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wangia, EN, Werdecker, A, Xu, G, Yamada, T, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Bin Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zhang, Y, Kassebaum, NJ, Hay, SI, Kinyoki, DK, Osgood-Zimmerman, AE, Pickering, BV, Schaeffer, LE, Marczak, LB, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Collison, ML, Henry, NJ, Abebe, Z, Adamu, AA, Adekanmbi, V, Ahmadi, K, Ajumobi, O, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Altirkawi, K, Amini, S, Andrei, CL, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atique, S, Ausloos, M, Avila, M, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Azari, S, Badawi, A, Barnighausen, TW, Bassat, Q, Baye, K, Bedi, N, Bekele, BB, Bell, ML, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgo, B, Bikbov, B, Briko, AN, Britton, G, Burstein, R, Butt, ZA, Car, J, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Castro, F, Cerin, E, Chipeta, MG, Chu, D-T, Cork, MA, Cromwell, EA, Cuevas-Nasu, L, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daoud, F, Das Gupta, R, Weaver, ND, De Leo, D, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Desalegn, BB, Deshpande, A, Desta, M, Diaz, D, Dinberu, MT, Doku, DT, Dubey, M, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Effiong, A, Zaki, MES, El Tantawi, M, El-Khatib, Z, Eshrati, B, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Fukumoto, T, Gebrehiwot, TT, Gezae, KE, Ghajar, A, Gill, PS, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hall, JB, Hamidi, S, Henok, A, Prado, BH, Herrero, M, Herteliu, C, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hu, G, Islam, SMS, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Jonas, JB, Jozwiak, JJ, Kahsay, A, Kanchan, T, Karami, M, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khan, EA, Khater, MM, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kisa, A, Kochhar, S, Kosen, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Lad, SD, Lami, FH, Lee, PH, Levine, AJ, Li, S, Linn, S, Lodha, R, Abd El Razek, HM, Abd El Razek, MM, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, DC, Mamun, AA, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masaka, A, Massenburg, BB, Mayala, BK, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Melku, M, Mendoza, W, Mensah, GA, Miazgowski, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Moodley, Y, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Mueller, UO, Murray, CJL, Mustafa, G, Naderi, M, Naghavi, M, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, HLT, Nguyen, LH, Nguyen, SH, Nie, J, Nnaji, CA, Noubiap, JJ, Shiadeh, MN, Nyasulu, PS, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Ortiz-Panozo, E, Otstavnov, SS, Mahesh, PA, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pati, S, Patil, ST, Patton, GC, Perico, N, Pigott, DM, Pirsaheb, M, Piwoz, EG, Postma, MJ, Pourshams, A, Prakash, S, Quintana, H, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rai, RK, Rajati, F, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawat, R, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Roever, L, Ross, JM, Rostami, A, Sadat, N, Safari, Y, Safdarian, M, Sahebkar, A, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salimzadeh, H, Samy, AM, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Schipp, MF, Schwebel, DC, Senbeta, AM, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Levy, TS, Shamsi, M, Sharafi, K, Sharma, R, Sheikh, A, Shil, A, Silva, DAS, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Soofi, M, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadesse, BT, Temsah, M-H, Terkawi, AS, Tessema, ZT, Thorne-Lyman, AL, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Tran, KB, Ullah, I, Uthman, OA, Vaezghasemi, M, Vaezi, A, Valdez, PR, Vanderheide, J, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vu, GT, Vu, LG, Waheed, Y, Walson, JL, Wang, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wangia, EN, Werdecker, A, Xu, G, Yamada, T, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Bin Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zhang, Y, Kassebaum, NJ, and Hay, SI
Abstract: Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0-59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3-5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization's median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas e
Published: 2020

29. Mapping disparities in education across low- and middle-income countries

Author: Graetz, N, Woyczynski, L, Wilson, KF, Hall, JB, Abate, KH, Abd-Allah, F, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Afshari, M, Ajumobi, O, Akinyemiju, T, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Altirkawi, K, Amiresmaili, M, Anber, NH, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Aryal, KK, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atique, S, Ausloos, M, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Azari, S, Badawi, A, Banoub, JAM, Barker-Collo, SL, Barnett, A, Bedi, N, Bennett, DA, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Britton, G, Burstein, R, Butt, ZA, Cardenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Castro, F, Cerin, E, Chang, J-C, Collison, ML, Cooper, C, Cork, MA, Daoud, F, Das Gupta, R, Weaver, ND, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Desalegn, BB, Deshpande, A, Desta, M, Dhimal, M, Diaz, D, Dinberu, MT, Djalalinia, S, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Kalan, ME, El-Khatib, Z, Eshrati, B, Faramarzi, M, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fukumoto, T, Garcia, JA, Gill, PS, Gill, TK, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Gupta, V, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Hasan, M, Hassen, HY, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Henry, NJ, Hernandez Prado, B, Herteliu, C, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hu, G, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Izadi, N, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Ji, JS, Jonas, JB, Shushtari, ZJ, Jozwiak, JJ, Kanchan, T, Kasaeian, A, Karyani, AK, Keiyoro, PN, Kesavachandran, CN, Khader, YS, Khafaie, MA, Khan, EA, Khater, MM, Kiadaliri, AA, Kiirithio, DN, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kinyoki, DK, Kisa, A, Kosen, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kumar, M, Kumar, P, Lami, FH, Lee, PH, Levine, AJ, Li, S, Liao, Y, Lim, L-L, Listl, S, Lopez, JCF, Majdan, M, Majdzadeh, R, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masaka, A, Massenburg, BB, Mayala, BK, Mehta, KM, Mendoza, W, Mensah, GA, Meretoja, TJ, Mestrovic, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Mohammad, DK, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Monasta, L, Moodley, Y, Moosazadeh, M, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Murray, CJL, Mustafa, G, Nahvijou, A, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Negoi, RI, Ngunjiri, JW, Cuong, TN, Long, HN, Ningrum, DNA, Noubiap, JJ, Shiadeh, MN, Nyasulu, PS, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Onwujekwe, OE, Ortega-Altamirano, DDV, Ortiz-Panozo, E, Overland, S, Mahesh, PA, Pana, A, Panda-Jonas, S, Pati, S, Patton, GC, Perico, N, Pigott, DM, Pirsaheb, M, Postma, MJ, Pourshams, A, Prakash, S, Puri, P, Qorbani, M, Radfar, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, MHU, Rajati, F, Ranabhat, CL, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Reiner, RC, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Rezaei, S, Rezapour, A, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Rostami, A, Rubagotti, E, Sadat, N, Sadeghi, E, Safari, Y, Sagar, R, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salimzadeh, H, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Milicevic, MMS, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Sawant, AR, Schaeffer, LE, Schipp, MF, Schwebel, DC, Senbeta, AM, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shamsizadeh, M, Sharafi, K, Sharma, R, She, J, Sheikh, A, Shigematsu, M, Siabani, S, Silveira, DGA, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Skirbekk, V, Sligar, A, Sobaih, BH, Soofi, M, Soriano, JB, Soyiri, IN, Sreeramareddy, CT, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Sutradhar, I, Sylaja, P, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadesse, BT, Temsah, M-H, Terkawi, AS, Tessema, B, Tessema, ZT, Thankappan, KR, Topor-Madry, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Car, LT, Ullah, I, Uthman, OA, Valdez, PR, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vollmer, S, Vu, GT, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wilkinson, JC, Winkler, AS, Wolfe, CDA, Yamada, T, Yeshaneh, A, Yip, P, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Bin Zaman, S, Zhang, J, Zhang, Y, Zodpey, S, Gakidou, E, Hay, SI, Graetz, N, Woyczynski, L, Wilson, KF, Hall, JB, Abate, KH, Abd-Allah, F, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Afshari, M, Ajumobi, O, Akinyemiju, T, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Altirkawi, K, Amiresmaili, M, Anber, NH, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Aryal, KK, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atique, S, Ausloos, M, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Azari, S, Badawi, A, Banoub, JAM, Barker-Collo, SL, Barnett, A, Bedi, N, Bennett, DA, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Britton, G, Burstein, R, Butt, ZA, Cardenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Castro, F, Cerin, E, Chang, J-C, Collison, ML, Cooper, C, Cork, MA, Daoud, F, Das Gupta, R, Weaver, ND, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Desalegn, BB, Deshpande, A, Desta, M, Dhimal, M, Diaz, D, Dinberu, MT, Djalalinia, S, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Kalan, ME, El-Khatib, Z, Eshrati, B, Faramarzi, M, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fukumoto, T, Garcia, JA, Gill, PS, Gill, TK, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Gupta, V, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Hasan, M, Hassen, HY, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Henry, NJ, Hernandez Prado, B, Herteliu, C, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hu, G, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Izadi, N, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Ji, JS, Jonas, JB, Shushtari, ZJ, Jozwiak, JJ, Kanchan, T, Kasaeian, A, Karyani, AK, Keiyoro, PN, Kesavachandran, CN, Khader, YS, Khafaie, MA, Khan, EA, Khater, MM, Kiadaliri, AA, Kiirithio, DN, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kinyoki, DK, Kisa, A, Kosen, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kumar, M, Kumar, P, Lami, FH, Lee, PH, Levine, AJ, Li, S, Liao, Y, Lim, L-L, Listl, S, Lopez, JCF, Majdan, M, Majdzadeh, R, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masaka, A, Massenburg, BB, Mayala, BK, Mehta, KM, Mendoza, W, Mensah, GA, Meretoja, TJ, Mestrovic, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Mohammad, DK, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Monasta, L, Moodley, Y, Moosazadeh, M, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Murray, CJL, Mustafa, G, Nahvijou, A, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Negoi, RI, Ngunjiri, JW, Cuong, TN, Long, HN, Ningrum, DNA, Noubiap, JJ, Shiadeh, MN, Nyasulu, PS, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Onwujekwe, OE, Ortega-Altamirano, DDV, Ortiz-Panozo, E, Overland, S, Mahesh, PA, Pana, A, Panda-Jonas, S, Pati, S, Patton, GC, Perico, N, Pigott, DM, Pirsaheb, M, Postma, MJ, Pourshams, A, Prakash, S, Puri, P, Qorbani, M, Radfar, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, MHU, Rajati, F, Ranabhat, CL, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Reiner, RC, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Rezaei, S, Rezapour, A, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Rostami, A, Rubagotti, E, Sadat, N, Sadeghi, E, Safari, Y, Sagar, R, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salimzadeh, H, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Milicevic, MMS, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Sawant, AR, Schaeffer, LE, Schipp, MF, Schwebel, DC, Senbeta, AM, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shamsizadeh, M, Sharafi, K, Sharma, R, She, J, Sheikh, A, Shigematsu, M, Siabani, S, Silveira, DGA, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Skirbekk, V, Sligar, A, Sobaih, BH, Soofi, M, Soriano, JB, Soyiri, IN, Sreeramareddy, CT, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Sutradhar, I, Sylaja, P, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadesse, BT, Temsah, M-H, Terkawi, AS, Tessema, B, Tessema, ZT, Thankappan, KR, Topor-Madry, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Car, LT, Ullah, I, Uthman, OA, Valdez, PR, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vollmer, S, Vu, GT, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wilkinson, JC, Winkler, AS, Wolfe, CDA, Yamada, T, Yeshaneh, A, Yip, P, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Bin Zaman, S, Zhang, J, Zhang, Y, Zodpey, S, Gakidou, E, and Hay, SI
Abstract: Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health1-3. As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting4-6. The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness7,8; however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health9-11. Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but-to our knowledge-no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of individuals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries12-14. By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations.
Published: 2020

30. Health sector spending and spending on HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, and development assistance for health: progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3

Author: Micah, AE, Su, Y, Bachmeier, SD, Chapin, A, Cogswell, IE, Crosby, SW, Cunningham, B, Harle, AC, Maddison, ER, Moitra, M, Sahu, M, Schneider, MT, Simpson, KE, Stutzman, HN, Tsakalos, G, Zende, RR, Zlavog, BS, Abbafati, C, Abebo, ZH, Abolhassani, H, Abrigo, MRM, Ahmed, MB, Akinyemi, RO, Alam, K, Ali, S, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ancuceanu, R, Andrei, T, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Aremu, O, Atnafu, DD, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Ayanore, MA, Azari, S, Babalola, TK, Bagherzadeh, M, Baig, AA, Bakhtiari, A, Banach, M, Banerjee, SK, Barnighausen, TW, Basu, S, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Berman, AE, Bhageerathy, R, Bhardwaj, P, Bohluli, M, Busse, R, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Camera, LLAA, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Catala-Lopez, F, Cevik, M, Chattu, VK, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dianatinasab, M, Hoa, TD, Doshmangir, L, El Tantawi, M, Eskandarieh, S, Esmaeilzadeh, F, Faraj, A, Farzadfar, F, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Fullman, N, Gad, MM, Ghafourifard, M, Ghashghaee, A, Gholamian, A, Goharinezhad, S, Grada, A, Bidgoli, HH, Hamidi, S, Harb, HL, Hasanpoor, E, Hay, SI, Hendrie, D, Henry, NJ, Herteliu, C, Hole, MK, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, S, Huda, TM, Humayun, A, Hwang, B-F, Ilesanmi, OS, Iqbal, U, Irvani, SS, Islam, SMS, Islam, MM, Jahani, MA, Jakovljevic, M, James, SL, Javaheri, Z, Jonas, JB, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, JJ, Jurisson, M, Kalhor, R, Matin, BK, Karimi, SE, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Kinfu, Y, Kisa, A, Kohler, S, Komaki, H, Kosen, S, Kotlo, A, Koyanagi, A, Kumar, GA, Kusuma, D, Lansingh, VC, Larsson, AO, Lasrado, S, Lee, SWH, Lim, L-L, Lozano, R, Abd El Razek, HM, Mahdavi, MM, Maleki, S, Malekzadeh, R, Mansour-Ghanaei, F, Mansournia, MA, Mantovani, LG, Martinez, G, Masoumi, SZ, Massenburg, BB, Menezes, RG, Mengesha, EW, Meretoja, TJ, Meretoja, A, Mestrovic, T, Kostova, NM, Miller, TR, Mirica, A, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moghadaszadeh, M, Mohajer, B, Mohamadi, E, Darwesh, AM, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Muriithi, MK, Muthupandian, S, Myint, C-Y, Naderi, M, Nagarajan, AJ, Cuong, TN, Huong, LTN, Nonvignon, J, Noubiap, JJ, Oh, I-H, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, JO, Olusanya, BO, Bali, AO, Onwujekwe, OE, Otstavnov, SS, Otstavnov, N, Owolabi, MO, Padubidri, JR, Palladino, R, Panda-Jonas, S, Pandey, A, Postma, MJ, Prada, SI, Pribadi, DRA, Rabiee, M, Rabiee, N, Rahim, F, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, SJ, Rathi, P, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, DL, Rawal, L, Rawassizadeh, R, Rezapour, A, Sabour, S, Sahraian, MA, Salman, OM, Salomon, JA, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Santos, JV, Milicevic, MMS, Jose, BPS, Savic, M, Schwendicke, F, Senthilkumaran, S, Sepanlou, SG, Servan-Mori, E, Setayesh, H, Shaikh, MA, Sheikh, A, Shibuya, K, Shrime, MG, Simonetti, B, Singh, JA, Singh, P, Skryabin, VY, Soheili, A, Soltani, S, Stefan, SC, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Topor-Madry, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Travillian, R, Undurraga, EA, Valdez, PR, van Boven, JFM, Vasankari, TJ, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vos, T, Wolfe, CDA, Wu, J, Yaya, S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yu, C, Zaidi, Z, Bin Zaman, S, Zastrozhin, MS, Zhang, Z-J, Zhao, Y, Murray, CJL, Dieleman, JL, Micah, AE, Su, Y, Bachmeier, SD, Chapin, A, Cogswell, IE, Crosby, SW, Cunningham, B, Harle, AC, Maddison, ER, Moitra, M, Sahu, M, Schneider, MT, Simpson, KE, Stutzman, HN, Tsakalos, G, Zende, RR, Zlavog, BS, Abbafati, C, Abebo, ZH, Abolhassani, H, Abrigo, MRM, Ahmed, MB, Akinyemi, RO, Alam, K, Ali, S, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ancuceanu, R, Andrei, T, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Aremu, O, Atnafu, DD, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Ayanore, MA, Azari, S, Babalola, TK, Bagherzadeh, M, Baig, AA, Bakhtiari, A, Banach, M, Banerjee, SK, Barnighausen, TW, Basu, S, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Berman, AE, Bhageerathy, R, Bhardwaj, P, Bohluli, M, Busse, R, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Camera, LLAA, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Catala-Lopez, F, Cevik, M, Chattu, VK, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dianatinasab, M, Hoa, TD, Doshmangir, L, El Tantawi, M, Eskandarieh, S, Esmaeilzadeh, F, Faraj, A, Farzadfar, F, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Fullman, N, Gad, MM, Ghafourifard, M, Ghashghaee, A, Gholamian, A, Goharinezhad, S, Grada, A, Bidgoli, HH, Hamidi, S, Harb, HL, Hasanpoor, E, Hay, SI, Hendrie, D, Henry, NJ, Herteliu, C, Hole, MK, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, S, Huda, TM, Humayun, A, Hwang, B-F, Ilesanmi, OS, Iqbal, U, Irvani, SS, Islam, SMS, Islam, MM, Jahani, MA, Jakovljevic, M, James, SL, Javaheri, Z, Jonas, JB, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, JJ, Jurisson, M, Kalhor, R, Matin, BK, Karimi, SE, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Kinfu, Y, Kisa, A, Kohler, S, Komaki, H, Kosen, S, Kotlo, A, Koyanagi, A, Kumar, GA, Kusuma, D, Lansingh, VC, Larsson, AO, Lasrado, S, Lee, SWH, Lim, L-L, Lozano, R, Abd El Razek, HM, Mahdavi, MM, Maleki, S, Malekzadeh, R, Mansour-Ghanaei, F, Mansournia, MA, Mantovani, LG, Martinez, G, Masoumi, SZ, Massenburg, BB, Menezes, RG, Mengesha, EW, Meretoja, TJ, Meretoja, A, Mestrovic, T, Kostova, NM, Miller, TR, Mirica, A, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moghadaszadeh, M, Mohajer, B, Mohamadi, E, Darwesh, AM, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Muriithi, MK, Muthupandian, S, Myint, C-Y, Naderi, M, Nagarajan, AJ, Cuong, TN, Huong, LTN, Nonvignon, J, Noubiap, JJ, Oh, I-H, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, JO, Olusanya, BO, Bali, AO, Onwujekwe, OE, Otstavnov, SS, Otstavnov, N, Owolabi, MO, Padubidri, JR, Palladino, R, Panda-Jonas, S, Pandey, A, Postma, MJ, Prada, SI, Pribadi, DRA, Rabiee, M, Rabiee, N, Rahim, F, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, SJ, Rathi, P, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, DL, Rawal, L, Rawassizadeh, R, Rezapour, A, Sabour, S, Sahraian, MA, Salman, OM, Salomon, JA, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Santos, JV, Milicevic, MMS, Jose, BPS, Savic, M, Schwendicke, F, Senthilkumaran, S, Sepanlou, SG, Servan-Mori, E, Setayesh, H, Shaikh, MA, Sheikh, A, Shibuya, K, Shrime, MG, Simonetti, B, Singh, JA, Singh, P, Skryabin, VY, Soheili, A, Soltani, S, Stefan, SC, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Topor-Madry, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Travillian, R, Undurraga, EA, Valdez, PR, van Boven, JFM, Vasankari, TJ, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vos, T, Wolfe, CDA, Wu, J, Yaya, S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yu, C, Zaidi, Z, Bin Zaman, S, Zastrozhin, MS, Zhang, Z-J, Zhao, Y, Murray, CJL, and Dieleman, JL
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 aims to "ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages". While a substantial effort has been made to quantify progress towards SDG3, less research has focused on tracking spending towards this goal. We used spending estimates to measure progress in financing the priority areas of SDG3, examine the association between outcomes and financing, and identify where resource gains are most needed to achieve the SDG3 indicators for which data are available. METHODS: We estimated domestic health spending, disaggregated by source (government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private) from 1995 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. For disease-specific health spending, we estimated spending for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis for 135 low-income and middle-income countries, and malaria in 106 malaria-endemic countries, from 2000 to 2017. We also estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2019, by source, disbursing development agency, recipient, and health focus area, including DAH for pandemic preparedness. Finally, we estimated future health spending for 195 countries and territories from 2018 until 2030. We report all spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2019 US$, unless otherwise stated. FINDINGS: Since the development and implementation of the SDGs in 2015, global health spending has increased, reaching $7·9 trillion (95% uncertainty interval 7·8-8·0) in 2017 and is expected to increase to $11·0 trillion (10·7-11·2) by 2030. In 2017, in low-income and middle-income countries spending on HIV/AIDS was $20·2 billion (17·0-25·0) and on tuberculosis it was $10·9 billion (10·3-11·8), and in malaria-endemic countries spending on malaria was $5·1 billion (4·9-5·4). Development assistance for health was $40·6 billion in 2019 and HIV/AIDS has been the health focus area to receive the highest contribution since 2004. In 2019, $374 million of DAH was provided for pandemic preparedness, less than 1% of
Published: 2020

31. Epidemiology of injuries from fire, heat and hot substances: global, regional and national morbidity and mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Author: James, SL, Lucchesi, LR, Bisignano, C, Castle, CD, Dingels, Z, Fox, JT, Hamilton, EB, Henry, NJ, McCracken, D, Roberts, NLS, Sylte, DO, Ahmadi, A, Ahmed, MB, Alahdab, F, Alipour, V, Andualem, Z, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Badiye, AD, Bagherzadeh, M, Banstola, A, Baernighausen, TW, Barzegar, A, Bayati, M, Bhaumik, S, Bijani, A, Bukhman, G, Carvalho, F, Crowe, CS, Dalal, K, Daryani, A, Nasab, MD, Hoa, TD, Huyen, PD, Endries, AY, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fukumoto, T, Gebremedhin, KBB, Gebremeskel, GG, Gilani, SA, Haagsma, JA, Hamidi, S, Hostiuc, S, Househ, M, Igumbor, EU, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Jayatilleke, AU, Kahsay, A, Kapoor, N, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khalil, IA, Khan, EA, Khazaee-Pool, M, Kokubo, Y, Lopez, AD, Madadin, M, Majdan, M, Maled, V, Malekzadeh, R, Manafi, N, Manafi, A, Mangalam, S, Massenburg, BB, Meles, HG, Menezes, RG, Meretoja, TJ, Miazgowski, B, Miller, TR, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Morrison, SD, Negoi, I, Trang, HN, Son, HN, Cuong, TN, Nixon, MR, Olagunju, AT, Olagunju, TO, Padubidri, JR, Polinder, S, Rabiee, N, Rabiee, M, Radfar, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, DL, Rezapour, A, Rickard, J, Roro, EM, Roy, N, Safari-Faramani, R, Salamati, P, Samy, AM, Satpathy, M, Sawhney, M, Schwebel, DC, Senthilkumaran, S, Sepanlou, SG, Shigematsu, M, Soheili, A, Stokes, MA, Tohidinik, HR, Bach, XT, Valdez, PR, Wijeratne, T, Yisma, E, Zaidi, Z, Zamani, M, Zhang, Z-J, Hay, S, Mokdad, AH, James, SL, Lucchesi, LR, Bisignano, C, Castle, CD, Dingels, Z, Fox, JT, Hamilton, EB, Henry, NJ, McCracken, D, Roberts, NLS, Sylte, DO, Ahmadi, A, Ahmed, MB, Alahdab, F, Alipour, V, Andualem, Z, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Badiye, AD, Bagherzadeh, M, Banstola, A, Baernighausen, TW, Barzegar, A, Bayati, M, Bhaumik, S, Bijani, A, Bukhman, G, Carvalho, F, Crowe, CS, Dalal, K, Daryani, A, Nasab, MD, Hoa, TD, Huyen, PD, Endries, AY, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fukumoto, T, Gebremedhin, KBB, Gebremeskel, GG, Gilani, SA, Haagsma, JA, Hamidi, S, Hostiuc, S, Househ, M, Igumbor, EU, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Jayatilleke, AU, Kahsay, A, Kapoor, N, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khalil, IA, Khan, EA, Khazaee-Pool, M, Kokubo, Y, Lopez, AD, Madadin, M, Majdan, M, Maled, V, Malekzadeh, R, Manafi, N, Manafi, A, Mangalam, S, Massenburg, BB, Meles, HG, Menezes, RG, Meretoja, TJ, Miazgowski, B, Miller, TR, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Morrison, SD, Negoi, I, Trang, HN, Son, HN, Cuong, TN, Nixon, MR, Olagunju, AT, Olagunju, TO, Padubidri, JR, Polinder, S, Rabiee, N, Rabiee, M, Radfar, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, DL, Rezapour, A, Rickard, J, Roro, EM, Roy, N, Safari-Faramani, R, Salamati, P, Samy, AM, Satpathy, M, Sawhney, M, Schwebel, DC, Senthilkumaran, S, Sepanlou, SG, Shigematsu, M, Soheili, A, Stokes, MA, Tohidinik, HR, Bach, XT, Valdez, PR, Wijeratne, T, Yisma, E, Zaidi, Z, Zamani, M, Zhang, Z-J, Hay, S, and Mokdad, AH
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Past research has shown how fires, heat and hot substances are important causes of health loss globally. Detailed estimates of the morbidity and mortality from these injuries could help drive preventative measures and improved access to care. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease 2017 framework to produce three main results. First, we produced results on incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. Second, we analysed these results to measure mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we reported the measures above in terms of the cause of fire, heat and hot substances and the types of bodily injuries that result. RESULTS: Globally, there were 8 991 468 (7 481 218 to 10 740 897) new fire, heat and hot substance injuries in 2017 with 120 632 (101 630 to 129 383) deaths. At the global level, the age-standardised mortality caused by fire, heat and hot substances significantly declined from 1990 to 2017, but regionally there was variability in age-standardised incidence with some regions experiencing an increase (eg, Southern Latin America) and others experiencing a significant decrease (eg, High-income North America). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and mortality of injuries that result from fire, heat and hot substances affect every region of the world but are most concentrated in middle and lower income areas. More resources should be invested in measuring these injuries as well as in improving infrastructure, advancing safety measures and ensuring access to care.
Published: 2020

32. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Kyu, Hh, Abate, D, Abate, Kh, Abay, Sm, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, Rs, Abebe, M, Abebe, Z, Abil, Oz, Aboyans, V, Abrham, Ar, Abu-Raddad, Lj, Abu-Rmeileh, Nme, Accrombessi, Mmk, Acharya, D, Acharya, P, Ackerman, In, Adamu, Aa, Adebayo, Om, Adekanmbi, V, Ademi, Z, Adetokunboh, Oo, Adib, Mg, Adsuar, Jc, Afanvi, Ka, Afarideh, M, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agesa, Km, Aggarwal, R, Aghayan, Sa, Agrawal, A, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, Mb, Ahmed, S, Aichour, An, Aichour, I, Aichour, Mte, Akinyemiju, T, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Mekhlafi, Hm, Al-Raddadi, Rm, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, T, Alashi, A, Alavian, Sm, Alene, Ka, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, Sm, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Alonso, J, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Aminde, Ln, Amini, E, Amiresmaili, M, Ammar, W, Amoako, Ya, Anber, Nh, Andrei, Cl, Androudi, S, Animut, Md, Anjomshoa, M, Ansha, Mg, Antonio, Cat, Anwari, P, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Ärnlöv, J, Arora, A, Arora, M, Artaman, A, Aryal, Kk, Asayesh, H, Ataro, Z, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Avokpaho, Efga, Awasthi, A, Ayala, Quintanilla, Ayer, R, Azzopardi, Ps, Babazadeh, A, Badali, H, Balakrishnan, K, Bali, Ag, Banach, M, Banoub, Jam, Barac, A, Barboza, Ma, Barker-Collo, Sl, Bärnighausen, Tw, Barquera, S, Barrero, Lh, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, Bb, Bekru, Et, Belachew, Ab, Belay, Ya, Bell, Ml, Bello, Ak, Bennett, Da, Bensenor, Im, Berhane, A, Bernabe, E, Bernstein, Rs, Beuran, M, Beyranvand, T, Bhala, N, Bhatt, S, Bhaumik, S, Bhutta, Za, Biadgo, B, Biehl, Mh, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Bilano, V, Bililign, N, Bin, Sayeed, Bisanzio, D, Bjørge, T, Bleyer, A, Bobasa, Em, Bou-Orm, Ir, Boufous, S, Bourne, R, Brady, Oj, Brant, Lc, Brayne, C, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, Njk, Brenner, H, Briant, Ps, Briko, An, Britton, G, Brugha, T, Buchbinder, R, Busse, R, Butt, Za, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Campuzano, Rincon, Cano, J, Cárdenas, R, Carrero, Jj, Carter, A, Carvalho, F, Castañeda-Orjuela, Ca, Castillo, Rivas, J, Castro, F, Catalá-López, F, Cercy, Km, Cerin, E, Chaiah, Y, Chang, Jc, Charlson, Fj, Chattu, Vk, Chiang, Pp, Chitheer, A, Choi, Jj, Christensen, H, Christopher, Dj, Chung, Sc, Cicuttini, Fm, Cirillo, Massimo, Collado-Mateo, D, Cooper, C, Cortesi, Pa, Cortinovis, M, Cousin, E, Criqui, Mh, Cromwell, Ea, Cross, M, Crump, Ja, Daba, Ak, Dachew, Ba, Dadi, Af, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dargan, Pi, Daryani, A, Das, Gupta, Das, R, Neves, J, Dasa, Tt, Davitoiu, Dv, De, La, Hoz, Fp, Leo, De, D, De, Neve, Jw, Steur, De, H, Degefa, Mg, Degenhardt, L, Deiparine, S, Demoz, Gt, Denova-Gutiérrez, E, Deribe, K, Dervenis, N, Des, Jarlais, Dey, S, Dharmaratne, Sd, Dhimal, M, Dinberu, Mt, Dirac, Ma, Djalalinia, S, Doan, L, Dokova, K, Doku, Dt, Dorsey, Er, Doyle, Ke, Driscoll, Tr, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Duken, Ee, Duncan, Bb, Duraes, Ar, Ebrahimi, H, Ebrahimpour, S, Echko, Mm, Edessa, D, Edvardsson, D, Effiong, A, Eggen, Ae, Ehrlich, Jr, Bcheraoui, El, C, El-Khatib, Z, Elyazar, Irf, Enayati, A, Endalifer, Ml, Endries, Ay, Er, B, Erskine, He, Eskandarieh, S, Esteghamati, A, Esteghamati, S, Fakhim, H, Faramarzi, M, Fareed, M, Farhadi, F, Farid, Ta, Farinha, Cses, Farioli, A, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Fazaeli, Aa, Feigin, Vl, Fentahun, N, Fereshtehnejad, Sm, Fernandes, E, Fernandes, Jc, Ferrari, Aj, Ferreira, Ml, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fitzmaurice, C, Foigt, Na, Foreman, Kj, Frank, Td, Fukumoto, T, Fullman, N, Fürst, T, Furtado, Jm, Gakidou, E, Gall, S, Gallus, S, Ganji, M, Garcia-Basteiro, Al, Gardner, Wm, Gebre, Ak, Gebremedhin, At, Gebremichael, Tg, Gelano, Tf, Geleijnse, Jm, Genova-Maleras, R, Geramo, Ycd, Gething, Pw, Gezae, Ke, Ghadami, Mr, Ghadiri, K, Ghasemi-Kasman, M, Ghimire, M, Ghoshal, Ag, Gill, Ps, Gill, Tk, Ginawi, Ia, Giussani, G, Gnedovskaya, Ev, Goldberg, Em, Goli, S, Gómez-Dantés, H, Gona, Pn, Gopalani, Sv, Gorman, Tm, Goulart, Ac, Goulart, Bng, Grada, A, Grosso, G, Gugnani, Hc, Guillemin, F, Guo, Y, Gupta, Pc, Gupta, R, Gupta, T, Gutiérrez, Ra, Gyawali, B, Haagsma, Ja, Hachinski, V, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Haghparast, Bidgoli, Hagos, Tb, Hailegiyorgis, Tt, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, Rr, Hamidi, S, Handal, Aj, Hankey, Gj, Hao, Y, Harb, Hl, Harikrishnan, S, Haririan, H, Haro, Jm, Hassankhani, H, Hassen, Hy, Havmoeller, R, Hay, Rj, Hay, Si, Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A, Heibati, B, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Heredia-Pi, I, Herteliu, C, Heydarpour, F, Heydarpour, P, Hibstu, Dt, Hoek, Hw, Hoffman, Hj, Hole, Mk, Homaie, Rad, E, Hoogar, P, Hosgood, Hd, Hosseini, Sm, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, M, Hostiuc, S, Hotez, Pj, Hoy, Dg, Hsairi, M, Htet, As, Huang, Jj, Iburg, Km, Ikeda, Ct, Ilesanmi, Os, Irvani, Ssn, Irvine, Cms, Islam, Sms, Islami, F, Jacobsen, Kh, Jahangiry, L, Jahanmehr, N, Jain, Sk, Jakovljevic, M, James, Sl, Jayatilleke, Au, Jeemon, P, Jha, Rp, Jha, V, Js, Ji, Johnson, Co, Jonas, Jb, Jonnagaddala, J, Jorjoran, Shushtari, Z, Joshi, A, Jozwiak, Jj, Jungari, Sb, 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Subjects: Male, Health Status, health statu, HALE, mortality rate, communicable disease, DALYs, Global Burden of Disease, Risk Factors, Prevalence, Medicine and Health Sciences, Singapore, OUTCOMES, disability-adjusted life year, international cooperation, Medicine (all), 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Central African Republic, newborn disease, IRON-DEFICIENCY, AIDS, priority journal, Bahrain, disease severity, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, cerebrovascular accident, Ukraine, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, INTERVENTIONS, Slovakia, DISORDERS, Burundi, WEIGHTS, GBD 2017 DALYs and HALE Collaborators, Communicable Diseases, Article, STYLE, Medicine, General & Internal, Life Expectancy, General & Internal Medicine, Humans, Disabled Persons, human, Healthy Lifestyle, HALE, DALYs, global burden of disease, Mortality, Aged, Science & Technology, Mortality, Premature, HIV, ischemic heart disease, major clinical study, PREVENTION, non communicable disease, GBD, disability-adjusted life-years, age, sex factor, Socioeconomic Factors, Algeria, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, lower respiratory tract infection, Wounds and Injuries, GENDER, Human medicine, trend study, chronic obstructive lung disease
Abstract: Background How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7.4 years (95% uncertainty interval 74-7.8), from 65.6 years (65.3-65- 8) in 1990 to 73.0 years (72.7-73.3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5.1 years (5.0-5.3) in high SDI countries to 12.0 years (11.3-12.8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26.3% (20.1-33.1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11.7% (8.8-15.1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6.3 years (5.9-6.7), from 57.0 years (54.6-59.1) in 1990 to 63.3 years (60.5-65.7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3.8 years (3.4-4.1) in high SDI countries to 10.5 years (9.8-11.2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1.0 year (0.4-1.7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62.4 years [59.9-64.7] in 1990 to 63.5 years [60.9-65.8] in 2017) to 23.7 years (21.9-25.6) in Eritrea (30.7 years [28.9-32.2] in 1990 to 54.4 years [51.5-57.1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1.4 years (0.6-2.3) in Algeria to 11.9 years (10.9-12.9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75.8 years [72.4-78.7]) and males (72.6 years [69 " 8-75.0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47.0 years [43.7-50.2] for females and 42.8 years [40.1-45.6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41.3% (38.8-43.5) for communicable diseases and by 49"8% (47.9-51.6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40.1% (36.8-43.0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18.1% (16.0-20.2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low S DI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Published: 2018

33. Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author: Troeger, C, Blacker, BF, Khalil, IA, Rao, PC, Cao, S, Zimsen, SRM, Albertson, S, Stanaway, JD, Deshpande, A, Farag, T, Forouzanfar, MH, Abebe, Z, Adetifa, IMO, Adhikari, TB, Akibu, M, Lami, FH, Al-Eyadhy, A, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Amoako, YA, Antonio, CAT, Aremu, O, Asfaw, ET, Asgedom, SW, Atey, TM, Attia, EF, Avokpaho, EFGA, Ayele, HT, Ayuk, TB, Balakrishnan, K, Barac, A, Bassat, Q, Behzadifar, M, Bhaumik, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Brauer, M, Brown, A, Camargos, PAM, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Colombara, D, Conti, S, Dadi, AF, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Do, HP, Dubljanin, E, Edessa, D, Elkout, H, Endries, AY, Fijabi, DO, Foreman, KJ, Fullman, N, Garcia-Basteiro, AL, Gessner, BD, Gething, PW, Gupta, R, Gupta, T, Hailu, GB, Hassen, HY, Hedayati, MT, Heidari, M, Hibstu, DT, Horita, N, Ilesanmi, OS, Jakovljevic, MB, Jamal, AA, Kahsay, A, Kasaeian, A, Kassa, DH, Khader, YS, Khan, EA, Khan, MN, Khang, Y-H, Kim, YJ, Kissoon, N, Knibbs, LD, Kochhar, S, Koul, PA, Kumar, GA, Lodha, R, Razek, HM, Malta, DC, Mathew, JL, Mengistu, DT, Mezgebe, HB, Mohammad, KA, Mohammed, AM, Momeniha, F, Murthy, S, Nguyen, CT, Nielsen, KR, Ningrum, DNA, Nirayo, YL, Oren, E, Ortiz, JR, Mahesh, PA, Postma, MJ, Qorbani, M, Quansah, R, Rai, RK, Rana, SM, Ranabhat, CL, Ray, SE, Rezai, MS, Ruhago, GM, Safiri, S, Salomon, JA, Sartorius, B, Savic, M, Sawhney, M, She, J, Sheikh, A, Shiferaw, MS, Shigematsu, M, Singh, JA, Somayaji, R, Sufiyan, MB, Taffere, GR, Temsah, M-H, Thompson, MJ, Tobe-Gai, R, Topor-Madry, R, Tran, BX, Tran, TT, Tuem, KB, Ukwaja, KN, Vollset, SE, Walson, JL, Weldegebreal, F, Werdecker, A, West, TE, Yonemoto, N, Zaki, MES, Zhou, L, Zodpey, S, Vos, T, Lim, SS, Naghavi, M, Murray, CJL, Mokdad, AH, Hay, SI, Jr, RRC, and Infecti, GBDLR
Subjects: Adult, Aged, 80 and over, Male, Adolescent, Incidence, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Respiratory Tract Infections/epidemiology, Biostatistics, Middle Aged, Global Health, Survival Analysis, Young Adult, Cost of Illness, Risk Factors, Child, Preschool, Prevalence, Humans, Female, Topography, Medical, Virus Diseases/epidemiology, Child, Epidemiologic Methods, Bacterial Infections/epidemiology, Aged
Abstract: Background Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages. Methods We used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and healthcare data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus. We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location. We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years. We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000–16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016. Findings In 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475–720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749–1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2 145 584–2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1 189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445–1 770 660). Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61·4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45·7–69·6). Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden. Interpretation Our findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults. By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could have the greatest effect, funders, policy makers, and programme implementers can more effectively reduce lower respiratory infections among the world’s most susceptible populations.
Published: 2019
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34. Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author: Feigin, VL, Nichols, E, Alam, T, Bannick, MS, Beghi, E, Blake, N, Culpepper, WJ, Dorsey, ER, Elbaz, A, Ellenbogen, RG, Fisher, JL, Fitzmaurice, C, Giussani, G, Glennie, L, James, SL, Johnson, CO, Kassebaum, NJ, Logroscino, G, Marin, B, Mountjoy-Venning, WC, Nguyen, M, Ofori-Asenso, R, Patel, AP, Piccininni, M, Roth, GA, Steiner, TJ, Stovner, LJ, Szoeke, CEI, Theadom, A, Vollset, SE, Wallin, MT, Wright, C, Zunt, JR, Abbasi, N, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Aboyans, V, Abraha, HN, Acharya, D, Adamu, AA, Adebayo, OM, Adeoye, AM, Adsuar, JC, Afarideh, M, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akinyemi, RO, Akseer, N, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Shahi Salman, R, Alahdab, F, Alene, KA, Aljunid, SM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Anber, NH, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Ärnlöv, J, Asayesh, H, Asghar, RJ, Atalay, HT, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayuk, TB, Badawi, A, Banach, M, Banoub, JAM, Barboza, MA, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Baune, BT, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Béjot, Y, Bekele, BB, Belachew, AB, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Berhane, A, Beuran, M, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgo, B, Bijani, A, Bililign, N, Bin Sayeed, MS, Blazes, CK, Brayne, C, Butt, ZA, Campos-Nonato, IR, Cantu-Brito, C, and Car, M
Subjects: Neurology & Neurosurgery
Abstract: © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders. Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable). Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Published: 2018

35. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Lozano, R, Fullman, N, Abate, D, Abay, SM, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdel-Rahman, O, Abdi, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, ND, Abebe, Z, Abejie, AN, Abera, SF, Abil, OZ, Aboyans, V, Abraha, HN, Abrham, AR, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NM, Abyu, GY, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Acharya, P, Adamu, AA, Adebayo, OM, Adedeji, IA, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adhena, BM, Adhikari, TB, Adib, MG, Adou, AK, Adsuar, JC, Afarideh, M, Afshari, M, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Aghayan, SA, Agius, D, Agrawal, A, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, S, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Akbari, ME, Akibu, M, Akinyemi, RO, Akinyemiju, T, Akseer, N, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, T, Albujeer, A, Alebel, A, Alene, KA, Al-Eyadhy, A, Alhabib, S, Ali, R, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, SM, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Allen, CA, Almasi, A, Al-Maskari, F, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Alonso, J, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Amenu, K, Amini, E, Ammar, W, Anber, NH, Anderson, JA, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Animut, MD, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, H, Ansariadi, A, Ansha, MG, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, and Appiah, LT
Subjects: Male, United Nations, Health Status, Sex Offenses, Sustainable Development, Global Health, Global Burden of Disease, Risk Factors, General & Internal Medicine, Humans, Health Status Indicators, Female, Mortality, Goals
Abstract: © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Published: 2018

36. Erratum: Department of Error

Author: Roth, GA, Abate, D, Abate, KH, Abay, SM, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, HT, Abebe, M, Abebe, Z, Abejie, AN, Abera, SF, Abil, OZ, Abraha, HN, Abrham, AR, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adamu, AA, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adhena, BM, Adib, MG, Admasie, A, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agesa, KM, Agrawal, A, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, S, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akbari, ME, Akinyemi, RO, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, T, Alebel, A, Alene, KA, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, SM, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Alonso, J, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Aminde, LN, Amini, E, Ammar, W, Amoako, YA, Anber, NH, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Animut, MD, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, H, Ansha, MG, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Aremu, O, Arnlov, J, Arora, A, Arora, M, Artaman, A, Aryal, KK, Asayesh, H, Asfaw, ET, Ataro, Z, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayele, Y, Ayer, R, Azzopardi, PS, Babazadeh, A, Bacha, U, Badali, H, and Badawi, A
Abstract: [This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7.].
Published: 2018

37. Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author: James, SL, Theadom, A, Ellenbogen, RG, Bannick, MS, Montjoy-Venning, W, Lucchesi, LR, Abbasi, N, Abdulkader, R, Abraha, HN, Adsuar, JC, Afarideh, M, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akinyemi, RO, Akseer, N, Alahdab, F, Alebel, A, Alghnam, SA, Ali, BA, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, H, Ansha, MG, Antonio, CAT, Appiah, SCY, Ariani, F, Asefa, NG, Asgedom, SW, Atique, S, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayuk, TB, Azzopardi, PS, Badali, H, Badawi, A, Balalla, S, Banstola, A, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, BB, Belachew, AB, Belay, YA, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Berhane, A, Beuran, M, Bhalla, A, Bhaumik, S, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgo, B, Biffino, M, Bijani, A, Bililign, N, Birungi, C, Boufous, S, Brazinova, A, Brown, AW, Car, M, Cárdenas, R, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Catalá-López, F, Chaiah, Y, Champs, AP, Chang, JC, Choi, JYJ, Christopher, DJ, Cooper, C, Crowe, CS, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daryani, A, Davitoiu, DV, Degefa, MG, Demoz, GT, Deribe, K, Djalalinia, S, Do, HP, Doku, DT, Drake, TM, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, El-Khatib, Z, Ofori-Asenso, R, Eskandarieh, S, Esteghamati, A, Esteghamati, S, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, and Farzaei, MH
Subjects: Neurology & Neurosurgery
Abstract: © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury. Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. Findings: In 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·30–30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78–1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331–412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11–16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55·50 million (53·40–57·62 million) and of SCI was 27·04 million (24·98–30·15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the age-standardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8·4% (95% UI 7·7 to 9·2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (−0·2% [–2·1 to 2·7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3·6% (1·8 to 5·5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (−3·6% [–7·4 to 4·0]). TBI caused 8·1 million (95% UI 6·0–10·4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9·5 million (6·7–12·4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82–141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90–170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions. Interpretation: TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Published: 2018

38. Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoea in 195 countries: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author: Troeger, C, Blacker, BF, Khalil, IA, Rao, PC, Cao, S, Zimsen, SRM, Albertson, SB, Stanaway, JD, Deshpande, A, Abebe, Z, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Asgedom, SW, Anteneh, ZA, Antonio, CAT, Aremu, O, Asfaw, ET, Atey, TM, Atique, S, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Ayele, HT, Barac, A, Barreto, ML, Bassat, Q, Belay, SA, Bensenor, IM, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bizuneh, H, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Dadi, AF, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Do, HP, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Edessa, D, Endries, AY, Eshrati, B, Farag, T, Feyissa, GT, Foreman, KJ, Forouzanfar, MH, Fullman, N, Gething, PW, Gishu, MD, Godwin, WW, Gugnani, HC, Gupta, R, Hailu, GB, Hassen, HY, Hibstu, DT, Ilesanmi, OS, Jonas, JB, Kahsay, A, Kang, G, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khan, EA, Khan, MA, Khang, Y-H, Kissoon, N, Kochhar, S, Kotloff, KL, Koyanagi, A, Kumar, GA, Magdy Abd El Razek, H, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, DC, Mehata, S, Mendoza, W, Mengistu, DT, Menota, BG, Mezgebe, HB, Mlashu, FW, Murthy, S, Naik, GA, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, TH, Ningrum, DNA, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Paudel, D, Platts-Mills, JA, Qorbani, M, Rafay, A, Rai, RK, Rana, SM, Ranabhat, CL, Rasella, D, Ray, SE, Reis, C, Renzaho, AMN, Rezai, MS, Ruhago, GM, Safiri, S, Salomon, JA, Sanabria, JR, Sartorius, B, Sawhney, M, Sepanlou, SG, Shigematsu, M, Sisay, M, Somayaji, R, Sreeramareddy, CT, Sykes, BL, Taffere, GR, Topor-Madry, R, Tran, BX, Tuem, KB, Ukwaja, KN, Vollset, SE, Walson, JL, Weaver, MR, Weldegwergs, KG, Werdecker, A, Workicho, A, Yenesew, M, Yirsaw, BD, Yonemoto, N, El Sayed Zaki, M, Vos, T, Lim, SS, Naghavi, M, Murray, CJL, Mokdad, AH, Hay, SI, Reiner, RC, and Hay, S
Abstract: Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoea in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies in 1990–2016 and assesses how the burden of diarrhoea has changed in people of all ages Methods We modelled diarrhoea mortality with a Bayesian hierarchical modelling platform that evaluates a wide range of covariates and model types on the basis of vital registration and verbal autopsy data. We modelled diarrhoea incidence with a compartmental meta-regression tool that enforces an association between incidence and prevalence, and relies on scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data. Diarrhoea deaths and episodes were attributed to 13 pathogens by use of a counterfactual population attributable fraction approach. Diarrhoea risk factors are also based on counterfactual estimates of risk exposure and the association between the risk and diarrhoea. Each modelled estimate accounted for uncertainty. Findings In 2016, diarrhoea was the eighth leading cause of death among all ages (1 655 944 deaths, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1 244 073–2 366 552) and the fifth leading cause of death among children younger than 5 years (446 000 deaths, 390 894–504 613). Rotavirus was the leading aetiology for diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years (128 515 deaths, 105 138–155 133) and among all ages (228 047 deaths, 183 526–292 737). Childhood wasting (low weight-for-height score), unsafe water, and unsafe sanitation were the leading risk factors for diarrhoea, responsible for 80·4% (95% UI 68·2–85·0), 72·1% (34·0–91·4), and 56·4% (49·3–62·7) of diarrhoea deaths in children younger than 5 years, respectively. Prevention of wasting in 1762 children (95% UI 1521–2170) could avert one death from diarrhoea. Interpretation Substantial progress has been made globally in reducing the burden of diarrhoeal diseases, driven by decreases in several primary risk factors. However, this reduction has not been equal across locations, and burden among adults older than 70 years requires attention.
Published: 2018

39. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Roth, GA, Abate, D, Abate, KH, Abay, SM, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, HT, Abebe, M, Abebe, Z, Abejie, AN, Abera, SF, Abil, OZ, Abraha, HN, Abrham, AR, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adamu, AA, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adhena, BM, Adib, MG, Admasie, A, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agesa, KM, Agrawal, A, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, S, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akbari, ME, Akinyemi, RO, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, T, Alebel, A, Alene, KA, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, SM, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Alonso, J, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Aminde, LN, Amini, E, Ammar, W, Amoako, YA, Anber, NH, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Animut, MD, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, H, Ansha, MG, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Aremu, O, Arnlov, J, Arora, A, Arora, M, Artaman, A, Aryal, KK, Asayesh, H, Asfaw, ET, Ataro, Z, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayele, Y, Ayer, R, Azzopardi, PS, Babazadeh, A, Bacha, U, Badali, H, and Badawi, A
Subjects: Adult, Aged, 80 and over, Male, Adolescent, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Middle Aged, Global Health, Global Burden of Disease, Young Adult, Life Expectancy, Age Distribution, Socioeconomic Factors, General & Internal Medicine, Cause of Death, Child, Preschool, Humans, Female, Sex Distribution, Child, Aged
Abstract: © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation: Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Published: 2018

40. Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016

Author: Global Burden of Disease 2016 Injury Collaborators, Naghavi M, Marczak LB, Kutz M, Shackelford KA, Arora M, Miller-Petrie M, Aichour MTE, Akseer N, Al-Raddadi RM, Alam K, Alghnam SA, Antonio CAT, Aremu O, Arora A, Asadi-Lari M, Assadi R, Atey TM, Avila-Burgos L, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Behzadifar M, Bennett JR, Bhalla A, Bhutta ZA, Bilal AI, Borges G, Borschmann R, Brazinova A, Campuzano Rincon JC, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, De Leo D, Dharmaratne SD, Ding EL, Phuc Do H, Doku DT, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Edessa D, El-Khatib Z, Endries AY, Esteghamati A, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fischer F, Foreman KJ, Franklin RC, Fullman N, Futran ND, Gebrehiwot TT, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haghparast Bidgoli H, Hailu GB, Haro JM, Hassen HY, Hawley C, Hendrie D, Híjar M, Hu G, Ilesanmi OS, Jakovljevic M, James SL, Jayaraman S, Jonas JB, Kahsay A, Kasaeian A, Keiyoro PN, Khader Y, Khalil IA, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Ahmad Kiadaliri A, Kieling C, Kim YJ, Kosen S, Krohn KJ, Kumar GA, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Larson HJ, Linn S, Lunevicius R, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Malekzadeh R, Carvalho Malta D, Mason-Jones AJ, Matzopoulos R, Memiah PTN, Mendoza W, Meretoja TJ, Mezgebe HB, Miller TR, Mohammed S, Moradi-Lakeh M, Mori R, Nand D, Tat Nguyen C, Le Nguyen Q, Ningrum DNA, Akpojene Ogbo F, Olagunju AT, Patton GC, Phillips MR, Polinder S, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rai RK, Ranabhat CL, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rowhani-Rahbar A, Safdarian M, Safiri S, Sagar R, Salama JS, Sanabria J, Santric Milicevic MM, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Shaikh MA, Sharew NT, Shiue I, Singh JA, Sisay M, Skirbekk V, Soares Filho AM, Stein DJ, Stokes MA, Sufiyan MB, Swaroop M, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadese F, Tran BX, Thanh Tran T, Ukwaja KN, Vasankari TJ, Vlassov V, Werdecker A, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, El Sayed Zaki M, Hay SI, Lim SS, Lopez AD, Mokdad AH, Vos T, and Murray CJL
Abstract: IMPORTANCE: Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13?812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths. EXPOSURES: Firearm ownership and access. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year. RESULTS: Worldwide, it was estimated that 251?000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195?000-276?000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209?000 (95% UI, 172?000 to 235?000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161?000 deaths [95% UI, 107?000-182?000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67?500 [95% UI, 55?400-84?100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23?000 [95% UI, 18?200-24?800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34?700 deaths [95% UI, 24?900-39?700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study estimated between 195?000 and 276?000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.
Published: 2018

41. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: James, SL, Abate, D, Abate, KH, Abay, SM, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, Z, Abera, SF, Abil, OZ, Abraha, HN, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Acharya, P, Ackerman, IN, Adamu, AA, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adib, MG, Adsuar, JC, Afanvi, KA, Afarideh, M, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agesa, KM, Aggarwal, R, Aghayan, SA, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akinyemiju, T, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, T, Alashi, A, Alavian, SM, Alene, KA, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, SM, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Alouani, MML, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Aminde, LN, Ammar, W, Amoako, YA, Anber, NH, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Animut, MD, Anjomshoa, M, Ansha, MG, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Arabloo, J, Arauz, A, Aremu, O, Ariani, F, Armoon, B, Ärnlöv, J, Arora, A, Artaman, A, Aryal, KK, Asayesh, H, Asghar, RJ, Ataro, Z, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayer, R, Azzopardi, PS, Babazadeh, A, Badali, H, Badawi, A, and Bali, AG
Subjects: Adult, Male, Adolescent, Global Health, Global Burden of Disease, Young Adult, Life Expectancy, Age Distribution, General & Internal Medicine, Prevalence, Humans, Disabled Persons, Sex Distribution, Child, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Incidence, Infant, Newborn, Infant, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Middle Aged, Socioeconomic Factors, Child, Preschool, Wounds and Injuries, Female, Morbidity
Abstract: Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.
Published: 2018

42. Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author: Fullman, N, Yearwood, J, Abay, SM, Abbafati, C, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abebe, Z, Abebo, TA, Aboyans, V, Abraha, HN, Abreu, DMX, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Adane, AA, Adedoyin, RA, Adetokunboh, O, Adhikari, TB, Afarideh, M, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agius, D, Agrawal, A, Agrawal, S, Ahmad Kiadaliri, A, Aichour, MTE, Akibu, M, Akinyemi, RO, Akinyemiju, TF, Akseer, N, Al Lami, FH, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, T, Alasfoor, D, Albittar, MI, Alene, KA, Al-Eyadhy, A, Ali, SD, Alijanzadeh, M, Aljunid, SM, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Allen, C, Alomari, MA, Al-Raddadi, R, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, KA, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Amenu, K, Ammar, W, Amoako, YA, Anber, N, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Antonio, CAT, Araújo, VEM, Aremu, O, Ärnlöv, J, Artaman, A, Aryal, KK, Asayesh, H, Asfaw, ET, Asgedom, SW, Asghar, RJ, Ashebir, MM, Asseffa, NA, Atey, TM, Atre, SR, Atteraya, MS, Avila-Burgos, L, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayalew, AA, Ayele, HT, Ayer, R, Ayuk, TB, Azzopardi, P, Azzopardi-Muscat, N, Babalola, TK, Badali, H, Badawi, A, Banach, M, Banerjee, A, Banstola, A, Barber, RM, Barboza, MA, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, T, Barquera, S, Barrero, LH, Bassat, Q, Basu, S, Baune, BT, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, and Beghi, E
Subjects: General & Internal Medicine, Humans, Wounds and Injuries, Noncommunicable Diseases, Communicable Diseases, Health Services Accessibility, Quality of Health Care, Global Burden of Disease
Abstract: Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view - and subsequent provision - of quality health care for all populations.
Published: 2018

43. Spending on health and HIV/AIDS: domestic health spending and development assistance in 188 countries, 1995–2015

Author: Dieleman, JL, Haakenstad, A, Micah, A, Moses, M, Abbafati, C, Acharya, P, Adhikari, TB, Adou, AK, Ahmad Kiadaliri, A, Alam, K, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Rai, RK, Ram, U, Ranabhat, CL, Ray, SE, Global Burden of Disease Health Financing Collaborator Network, Alkerwi, A, Ammar, W, Antonio, CAT, Aremu, O, Asgedom, SW, Atey, TM, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Ayer, R, Badali, H, Banach, M, Banstola, A, Barac, A, Belachew, AB, Birungi, C, Bragazzi, NL, Breitborde, NJK, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Car, J, Catalá-López, F, Chapin, A, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daryani, A, Dharmaratne, SD, Dubey, M, Edessa, D, Eldrenkamp, E, Eshrati, B, Faro, A, Feigl, AB, Fenny, AP, Fischer, F, Foigt, N, Foreman, KJ, Fullman, N, Ghimire, M, Goli, S, Hailu, AD, Hamidi, S, Harb, HL, Hay, SI, Hendrie, D, Ikilezi, G, Javanbakht, M, John, D, Jonas, JB, Kaldjian, A, Kasaeian, A, Kates, J, Khalil, IA, Khang, YH, Khubchandani, J, Kim, YJ, Kinge, JM, Kosen, S, Krohn, KJ, Kumar, GA, Lam, H, Listl, S, Magdy Abd El Razek, H, Magdy Abd El Razek, M, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, DC, Mensah, GA, Meretoja, A, Miller, TR, Mirrakhimov, EM, Mlashu, FW, Mohammed, E, Mohammed, S, Naghavi, M, Nangia, V, Ngalesoni, FN, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, TH, Niriayo, Y, Noroozi, M, Owolabi, MO, Pereira, DM, Qorbani, M, Rafay, A, Rafiei, A, and Rahimi-Movaghar, V
Abstract: Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Background: Comparable estimates of health spending are crucial for the assessment of health systems and to optimally deploy health resources. The methods used to track health spending continue to evolve, but little is known about the distribution of spending across diseases. We developed improved estimates of health spending by source, including development assistance for health, and, for the first time, estimated HIV/AIDS spending on prevention and treatment and by source of funding, for 188 countries. Methods: We collected published data on domestic health spending, from 1995 to 2015, from a diverse set of international agencies. We tracked development assistance for health from 1990 to 2017. We also extracted 5385 datapoints about HIV/AIDS spending, between 2000 and 2015, from online databases, country reports, and proposals submitted to multilateral organisations. We used spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to generate complete and comparable estimates for health and HIV/AIDS spending. We report most estimates in 2017 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars and adjust all estimates for the effect of inflation. Findings: Between 1995 and 2015, global health spending per capita grew at an annualised rate of 3·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1 to 3·2), with growth being largest in upper-middle-income countries (5·4% per capita [UI 5·3–5·5]) and lower-middle-income countries (4·2% per capita [4·2–4·3]). In 2015, $9·7 trillion (9·7 trillion to 9·8 trillion) was spent on health worldwide. High-income countries spent $6·5 trillion (6·4 trillion to 6·5 trillion) or 66·3% (66·0 to 66·5) of the total in 2015, whereas low-income countries spent $70·3 billion (69·3 billion to 71·3 billion) or 0·7% (0·7 to 0·7). Between 1990 and 2017, development assistance for health increased by 394·7% ($29·9 billion), with an estimated $37·4 billion of development assistance being disbursed for health in 2017, of which $9·1 billion (24·2%) targeted HIV/AIDS. Between 2000 and 2015, $562·6 billion (531·1 billion to 621·9 billion) was spent on HIV/AIDS worldwide. Governments financed 57·6% (52·0 to 60·8) of that total. Global HIV/AIDS spending peaked at 49·7 billion (46·2–54·7) in 2013, decreasing to $48·9 billion (45·2 billion to 54·2 billion) in 2015. That year, low-income and lower-middle-income countries represented 74·6% of all HIV/AIDS disability-adjusted life-years, but just 36·6% (34·4 to 38·7) of total HIV/AIDS spending. In 2015, $9·3 billion (8·5 billion to 10·4 billion) or 19·0% (17·6 to 20·6) of HIV/AIDS financing was spent on prevention, and $27·3 billion (24·5 billion to 31·1 billion) or 55·8% (53·3 to 57·9) was dedicated to care and treatment. Interpretation: From 1995 to 2015, total health spending increased worldwide, with the fastest per capita growth in middle-income countries. While these national disparities are relatively well known, low-income countries spent less per person on health and HIV/AIDS than did high-income and middle-income countries. Furthermore, declines in development assistance for health continue, including for HIV/AIDS. Additional cuts to development assistance could hasten this decline, and risk slowing progress towards global and national goals. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Published: 2018

44. Trends in future health financing and coverage: future health spending and universal health coverage in 188 countries, 2016–40

Author: Dieleman, JL, Sadat, N, Chang, AY, Fullman, N, Abbafati, C, Acharya, P, Adou, AK, Ahmad Kiadaliri, A, Alam, K, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Alkerwi, A, Rafay, A, Rafiei, A, Global Burden of Disease Health Financing Collaborator Network, Ammar, W, Antonio, CAT, Aremu, O, Asgedom, SW, Atey, TM, Avila-Burgos, L, Ayer, R, Badali, H, Banach, M, Banstola, A, Barac, A, Belachew, AB, Birungi, C, Bragazzi, NL, Breitborde, NJK, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Car, J, Catalá-López, F, Chapin, A, Chen, CS, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daryani, A, Dharmaratne, SD, Dubey, M, Edessa, D, Eldrenkamp, E, Eshrati, B, Faro, A, Feigl, AB, Fenny, AP, Fischer, F, Foigt, N, Foreman, KJ, Ghimire, M, Goli, S, Hailu, AD, Hamidi, S, Harb, HL, Hay, SI, Hendrie, D, Ikilezi, G, Javanbakht, M, John, D, Jonas, JB, Kaldjian, A, Kasaeian, A, Kasahun, YC, Khalil, IA, Khang, YH, Khubchandani, J, Kim, YJ, Kinge, JM, Kosen, S, Krohn, KJ, Kumar, GA, Lafranconi, A, Lam, H, Listl, S, Magdy Abd El Razek, H, Magdy Abd El Razek, M, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, DC, Martinez, G, Mensah, GA, Meretoja, A, Micah, A, Miller, TR, Mirrakhimov, EM, Mlashu, FW, Mohammed, E, Mohammed, S, Moses, M, Mousavi, SM, Naghavi, M, Nangia, V, Ngalesoni, FN, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, TH, Niriayo, Y, Noroozi, M, Owolabi, MO, Patel, T, Pereira, DM, Polinder, S, and Qorbani, M
Abstract: This online publication has been corrected. The corrected version first appeared at thelancet.com on May 3, 2018 © 2018 The Author(s). Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) requires health financing systems that provide prepaid pooled resources for key health services without placing undue financial stress on households. Understanding current and future trajectories of health financing is vital for progress towards UHC. We used historical health financing data for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015 to estimate future scenarios of health spending and pooled health spending through to 2040. Methods: We extracted historical data on gross domestic product (GDP) and health spending for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015, and projected annual GDP, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending from 2015 through to 2040 as a reference scenario. These estimates were generated using an ensemble of models that varied key demographic and socioeconomic determinants. We generated better and worse alternative future scenarios based on the global distribution of historic health spending growth rates. Last, we used stochastic frontier analysis to investigate the association between pooled health resources and UHC index, a measure of a country's UHC service coverage. Finally, we estimated future UHC performance and the number of people covered under the three future scenarios. Findings: In the reference scenario, global health spending was projected to increase from US$10 trillion (95% uncertainty interval 10 trillion to 10 trillion) in 2015 to $20 trillion (18 trillion to 22 trillion) in 2040. Per capita health spending was projected to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 4·2% (3·4–5·1) per year, followed by lower-middle-income countries (4·0%, 3·6–4·5) and low-income countries (2·2%, 1·7–2·8). Despite global growth, per capita health spending was projected to range from only $40 (24–65) to $413 (263–668) in 2040 in low-income countries, and from $140 (90–200) to $1699 (711–3423) in lower-middle-income countries. Globally, the share of health spending covered by pooled resources would range widely, from 19·8% (10·3–38·6) in Nigeria to 97·9% (96·4–98·5) in Seychelles. Historical performance on the UHC index was significantly associated with pooled resources per capita. Across the alternative scenarios, we estimate UHC reaching between 5·1 billion (4·9 billion to 5·3 billion) and 5·6 billion (5·3 billion to 5·8 billion) lives in 2030. Interpretation: We chart future scenarios for health spending and its relationship with UHC. Ensuring that all countries have sustainable pooled health resources is crucial to the achievement of UHC. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Published: 2018

45. Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))

Author: Stanaway, JD, Afshin, A, Gakidou, E, Lim, SS, Abate, D, Abate, KH, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, M, Abebe, Z, Abera, SF, Abil, OZ, Abraha, HN, Abrham, AR, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Acharya, P, Adamu, AA, Adane, AA, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Ademi, Z, Adetokunboh, OO, Adib, MG, Admasie, A, Adsuar, JC, Afanvi, KA, Afarideh, M, Agarwal, G, Aggarwal, A, Aghayan, SA, Agrawal, A, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akbari, ME, Akinyemiju, T, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, S, Alam, T, Alashi, A, Alavian, SM, Alene, KA, Ali, K, Ali, SM, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, SM, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Ammar, W, Anber, NH, Anderson, JA, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Animut, MD, Anjomshoa, M, Ansha, MG, Antó, JM, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Appiah, LT, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Ärnlöv, J, Artaman, A, Aryal, KK, Asayesh, H, Ataro, Z, Ausloos, M, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayer, R, Ayuk, TB, Azzopardi, PS, Leung, Janni ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5816-2959, Pesudovs, Konrad ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6322-9369, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Neal, Bruce ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0490-7465, Boufous, Soufiane ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5686-1729, Sachdev, Perminder ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9595-3220, Degenhardt, Louisa ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8513-2218, Schutte, Alta ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9217-4937, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, Resnikoff, Serge ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5866-4446, Stanaway, JD, Afshin, A, Gakidou, E, Lim, SS, Abate, D, Abate, KH, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, M, Abebe, Z, Abera, SF, Abil, OZ, Abraha, HN, Abrham, AR, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Acharya, P, Adamu, AA, Adane, AA, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Ademi, Z, Adetokunboh, OO, Adib, MG, Admasie, A, Adsuar, JC, Afanvi, KA, Afarideh, M, Agarwal, G, Aggarwal, A, Aghayan, SA, Agrawal, A, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akbari, ME, Akinyemiju, T, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, S, Alam, T, Alashi, A, Alavian, SM, Alene, KA, Ali, K, Ali, SM, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, SM, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Ammar, W, Anber, NH, Anderson, JA, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Animut, MD, Anjomshoa, M, Ansha, MG, Antó, JM, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Appiah, LT, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Ärnlöv, J, Artaman, A, Aryal, KK, Asayesh, H, Ataro, Z, Ausloos, M, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayer, R, Ayuk, TB, Azzopardi, PS, Leung, Janni ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5816-2959, Pesudovs, Konrad ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6322-9369, Jha, Vivekanand ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-9470, Neal, Bruce ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0490-7465, Boufous, Soufiane ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5686-1729, Sachdev, Perminder ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9595-3220, Degenhardt, Louisa ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8513-2218, Schutte, Alta ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9217-4937, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, and Resnikoff, Serge ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5866-4446
Abstract: Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes du
Published: 2019

46. Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Author: Burstein, R, Henry, NJ, Collison, ML, Marczak, LB, Sligar, A, Watson, S, Marquez, N, Abbasalizad-Farhangi, M, Abbasi, M, Abd-Allah, F, Abdoli, A, Abdollahi, M, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abrigo, MRM, Acharya, D, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adham, D, Afshari, M, Aghaali, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadpour, E, Ahmed, R, Akal, CG, Akinyemi, JO, Alahdab, F, Alam, N, Alamene, GM, Alene, KA, Alijanzadeh, M, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almalki, MJ, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amegah, AK, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Anbari, Z, Androudi, S, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Arefi, Z, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Arora, A, Artaman, A, Asadi, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Ashraf-Ganjouei, A, Assadi, R, Ataeinia, B, Atre, SR, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayanore, MA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Babazadeh, A, Badawi, A, Bagheri, S, Bagherzadeh, M, Baheiraei, N, Balouchi, A, Barac, A, Bassat, Q, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Behzadifar, M, Belay, YB, Bell, B, Bell, ML, Berbada, DA, Bernstein, RS, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bohlouli, S, Breitborde, NJK, Britton, G, Browne, AJ, Nagaraja, SB, Busse, R, Butt, ZA, Car, J, Cárdenas, R, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Cerin, E, Chanie, WF, Chatterjee, P, Chu, DT, Karki, Surendra ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1561-4171, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, Muluneh, Atalay Goshu ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2556-4158, Iqbal, Usman ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0614-123X, Burstein, R, Henry, NJ, Collison, ML, Marczak, LB, Sligar, A, Watson, S, Marquez, N, Abbasalizad-Farhangi, M, Abbasi, M, Abd-Allah, F, Abdoli, A, Abdollahi, M, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abrigo, MRM, Acharya, D, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adham, D, Afshari, M, Aghaali, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadpour, E, Ahmed, R, Akal, CG, Akinyemi, JO, Alahdab, F, Alam, N, Alamene, GM, Alene, KA, Alijanzadeh, M, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almalki, MJ, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amegah, AK, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Anbari, Z, Androudi, S, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Arefi, Z, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Arora, A, Artaman, A, Asadi, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Ashraf-Ganjouei, A, Assadi, R, Ataeinia, B, Atre, SR, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayanore, MA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Babazadeh, A, Badawi, A, Bagheri, S, Bagherzadeh, M, Baheiraei, N, Balouchi, A, Barac, A, Bassat, Q, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Behzadifar, M, Belay, YB, Bell, B, Bell, ML, Berbada, DA, Bernstein, RS, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bohlouli, S, Breitborde, NJK, Britton, G, Browne, AJ, Nagaraja, SB, Busse, R, Butt, ZA, Car, J, Cárdenas, R, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Cerin, E, Chanie, WF, Chatterjee, P, Chu, DT, Karki, Surendra ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1561-4171, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, Muluneh, Atalay Goshu ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2556-4158, and Iqbal, Usman ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0614-123X
Abstract: Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
Published: 2019

47. Global, regional, and national burden of suicide mortality 1990 to 2016: Systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author: Orpana, HM, Marczak, LB, Arora, M, Abbasi, N, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, Z, Abraha, HN, Afarideh, M, Afshari, M, Ahmadi, A, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akseer, N, Al‐raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alkerwi, A, Allebeck, P, Alvis‐guzman, N, Anber, NH, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Arora, A, Aryal, KK, Asgedom, SW, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Badali, H, Barker‐collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Bazargan‐hejazi, S, Benjet, C, Bensenor, IM, Berfeld, N, Beuran, M, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgo, B, Bililign, N, Borges, G, Borschmann, R, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, NJK, Brugha, T, Butt, ZA, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Malta, DC, Castañeda‐orjuela, CA, Catalá‐lópez, F, Ciobanu, LG, Dachew, BA, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dargan, PI, Daryani, A, Davitoiu, DV, Davletov, K, Degenhardt, L ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8513-2218, Demoz, GT, Jarlais, DCD, Dharmaratne, SD, Djalalinia, S, Doan, L, Doku, DT, Dubey, M, El‐khatib, Z, Eskandarieh, S, Esteghamati, A, Esteghamati, S, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Fekadu, W, Fernandes, E, Ferrari, AJ, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foreman, KJ, Fukumoto, T, Gebre, AK, Grosso, G, Gupta, R, Haagsma, JA, Bidgoli, HH, Haj‐mirzaian, A, Hamidi, S, Hankey, GJ, Haro, JM, Hassen, HY, Hay, SI, Heidari, B, Hendrie, D, Rad, EH, Hosseini, SM, Hostiuc, S, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Jakovljevic, M, James, S, Jayatilleke, AU, Jha, RP, Sachdev, Perminder ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9595-3220, Mitchell, Philip ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7954-5235, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, Leung, Janni ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5816-2959, Orpana, HM, Marczak, LB, Arora, M, Abbasi, N, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, Z, Abraha, HN, Afarideh, M, Afshari, M, Ahmadi, A, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akseer, N, Al‐raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alkerwi, A, Allebeck, P, Alvis‐guzman, N, Anber, NH, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Arora, A, Aryal, KK, Asgedom, SW, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Badali, H, Barker‐collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Bazargan‐hejazi, S, Benjet, C, Bensenor, IM, Berfeld, N, Beuran, M, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgo, B, Bililign, N, Borges, G, Borschmann, R, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, NJK, Brugha, T, Butt, ZA, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Malta, DC, Castañeda‐orjuela, CA, Catalá‐lópez, F, Ciobanu, LG, Dachew, BA, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dargan, PI, Daryani, A, Davitoiu, DV, Davletov, K, Degenhardt, L ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8513-2218, Demoz, GT, Jarlais, DCD, Dharmaratne, SD, Djalalinia, S, Doan, L, Doku, DT, Dubey, M, El‐khatib, Z, Eskandarieh, S, Esteghamati, A, Esteghamati, S, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Fekadu, W, Fernandes, E, Ferrari, AJ, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foreman, KJ, Fukumoto, T, Gebre, AK, Grosso, G, Gupta, R, Haagsma, JA, Bidgoli, HH, Haj‐mirzaian, A, Hamidi, S, Hankey, GJ, Haro, JM, Hassen, HY, Hay, SI, Heidari, B, Hendrie, D, Rad, EH, Hosseini, SM, Hostiuc, S, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Jakovljevic, M, James, S, Jayatilleke, AU, Jha, RP, Sachdev, Perminder ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9595-3220, Mitchell, Philip ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7954-5235, Maulik, Pallab Kumar ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-6175, and Leung, Janni ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5816-2959
Abstract: Objectives To use the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 to describe patterns of suicide mortality globally, regionally, and for 195 countries and territories by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index, and to describe temporal trends between 1990 and 2016. Design Systematic analysis. Main outcome measures Crude and age standardised rates from suicide mortality and years of life lost were compared across regions and countries, and by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index (a composite measure of fertility, income, and education). Results The total number of deaths from suicide increased by 6.7% (95% uncertainty interval 0.4% to 15.6%) globally over the 27 year study period to 817 000 (762 000 to 884 000) deaths in 2016. However, the age standardised mortality rate for suicide decreased by 32.7% (27.2% to 36.6%) worldwide between 1990 and 2016, similar to the decline in the global age standardised mortality rate of 30.6%. Suicide was the leading cause of age standardised years of life lost in the Global Burden of Disease region of high income Asia Pacific and was among the top 10 leading causes in eastern Europe, central Europe, western Europe, central Asia, Australasia, southern Latin America, and high income North America. Rates for men were higher than for women across regions, countries, and age groups, except for the 15 to 19 age group. There was variation in the female to male ratio, with higher ratios at lower levels of Socio-demographic index. Women experienced greater decreases in mortality rates (49.0%, 95% uncertainty interval 42.6% to 54.6%) than men (23.8%, 15.6% to 32.7%). Conclusions Age standardised mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide. Suicide mortality was variable across locations, between sexes, and between age groups. Suicide prevention strategies can be targeted towards vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortalit
Published: 2019

48. Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of

Author: Stanaway, JD, Afshin, A, Gakidou, E, Lim, SS, Abate, D, Abate, KH, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, M, Abebe, Z, Abera, SF, Abil, OZ, Abraha, HN, Abrham, AR, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Acharya, P, Adamu, AA, Adane, AA, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Ademi, Z, Adetokunboh, OO, Adib, MG, Admasie, A, Adsuar, JC, Afanvi, KA, Afarideh, M, Agarwal, G, Aggarwal, A, Aghayan, SA, Agrawal, A, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akbari, ME, Akinyemiju, T, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, S, Alam, T, Alashi, A, Alavian, SM, Alene, KA, Ali, K, Ali, SM, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, SM, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Ammar, W, Anber, NH, Anderson, JA, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Animut, MD, Anjomshoa, M, Ansha, MG, Antó, JM, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Appiah, LT, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Ärnlöv, J, Artaman, A, Aryal, KK, Asayesh, H, Ataro, Z, Ausloos, M, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayer, R, Ayuk, TB, Azzopardi, PS, Stokes, Mark, Stanaway, JD, Afshin, A, Gakidou, E, Lim, SS, Abate, D, Abate, KH, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, M, Abebe, Z, Abera, SF, Abil, OZ, Abraha, HN, Abrham, AR, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Acharya, P, Adamu, AA, Adane, AA, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Ademi, Z, Adetokunboh, OO, Adib, MG, Admasie, A, Adsuar, JC, Afanvi, KA, Afarideh, M, Agarwal, G, Aggarwal, A, Aghayan, SA, Agrawal, A, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akbari, ME, Akinyemiju, T, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, S, Alam, T, Alashi, A, Alavian, SM, Alene, KA, Ali, K, Ali, SM, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, SM, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Ammar, W, Anber, NH, Anderson, JA, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Animut, MD, Anjomshoa, M, Ansha, MG, Antó, JM, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Appiah, LT, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Ärnlöv, J, Artaman, A, Aryal, KK, Asayesh, H, Ataro, Z, Ausloos, M, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayer, R, Ayuk, TB, Azzopardi, PS, and Stokes, Mark
Published: 2019

49. Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author: James, SL, Theadom, A, Ellenbogen, RG, Bannick, MS, Mountjoy-Venning, WC, Lucchesi, LR, Abbasi, N, Abdulkader, R, Abraha, HN, Adsuar, JC, Afarideh, M, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akinyemi, RO, Akseer, N, Alahdab, F, Alebel, A, Alghnam, SA, Ali, BA, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, H, Ansha, MG, Antonio, CAT, Appiah, SCY, Ariani, F, Asefa, NG, Asgedom, SW, Atique, S, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayuk, TB, Azzopardi, PS, Badali, H, Badawi, A, Balalla, S, Banstola, A, Barker-Collo, SL, Barnighausen, TW, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, BB, Belachew, AB, Belay, YA, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Berhane, A, Beuran, M, Bhalla, A, Bhaumik, S, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgo, B, Biffino, M, Bijani, A, Bililign, N, Birungi, C, Boufous, S, Brazinova, A, Brown, AW, Car, M, Cardenas, R, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Catala-Lopez, F, Chaiah, Y, Champs, AP, Chang, J-C, Choi, J-YJ, Christopher, DJ, Cooper, C, Crowe, CS, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daryani, A, Davitoiu, DV, Degefa, MG, Demoz, GT, Deribe, K, Djalalinia, S, Huyen, PD, Doku, DT, Drake, TM, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, El-Khatib, Z, Eskandarieh, S, Esteghamati, A, Esteghamati, S, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Farzaei, MH, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Feyissa, GT, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fukumoto, T, Ganji, M, Gankpe, FG, Gebre, AK, Gebrehiwot, TT, Gezae, KE, Gopalkrishna, G, Goulart, AC, Haagsma, JA, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Haro, JM, Hassankhani, H, Hassen, HY, Havmoeller, R, Hawley, C, Hay, SI, Hegazy, MI, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Hibstu, DT, Hoffman, HJ, Hole, MK, Rad, EH, Hosseini, SM, Hostiuc, S, Hu, G, Hussen, MA, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SN, Jakovljevic, M, Jayaraman, S, Jha, RP, Jonas, JB, Jones, KM, Shushtari, ZJ, Jozwiak, JJ, Jurisson, M, Kabir, A, Kahsay, A, Kahssay, M, Kalani, R, Karch, A, Kasaeian, A, Kassa, GM, Kassa, TD, Kassa, ZY, Kengne, AP, Khader, YS, Khafaie, MA, Khalid, N, Khalil, I, Khan, EA, Khan, MS, Khang, Y-H, Khazaie, H, Khoja, AT, Khubchandani, J, Kiadaliri, AA, Kim, D, Kim, Y-E, Kisa, A, Koyanagi, A, Krohn, KJ, Defo, BK, Bicer, BK, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Lalloo, R, Lami, FH, Lansingh, VC, Laryea, DO, Latifi, A, Leshargie, CT, Levi, M, Li, S, Liben, ML, Lotufo, PA, Lunevicius, R, Mahotra, NB, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Manda, A-L, Mansournia, MA, Massenburg, BB, Mate, KKV, Mehndiratta, MM, Mehta, V, Meles, H, Melese, A, Memiah, PTN, Mendoza, W, Mengistu, G, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, TJ, Mestrovic, T, Miazgowski, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirica, A, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Mohammadi, M, Mokdad, AH, Molokhia, M, Monasta, L, Mondello, S, Moosazadeh, M, Moradi, G, Moradi, M, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moradinazar, M, Morrison, SD, Moschos, MM, Mousavi, SM, Murthy, S, Musa, KI, Mustafa, G, Naghavi, M, Naik, G, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Nascimento, BR, Negoi, I, Trang, HN, Nichols, E, Ningrum, DNA, Nirayo, YL, Nyasulu, PS, Ofori-Asenso, R, Ogbo, FA, Oh, I-H, Okoro, A, Olagunju, AT, Olagunju, TO, Olivares, PR, Otstavnov, SS, Owolabi, MO, Mahesh, PA, Pakhale, S, Pandey, AR, Pesudovs, K, Pinilla-Monsalve, GD, Polinder, S, Poustchi, H, Prakash, S, Qorbani, M, Radfar, A, Rafay, A, Rafiei, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Rahman, MA, Rai, RK, Rajati, F, Ram, U, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Reiner, RC, Reis, C, Renzaho, AMN, Resnikoff, S, Rezaei, S, Rezaeian, S, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Roy, N, Ruhago, GM, Saddik, B, Safari, H, Safiri, S, Sahraian, MA, Salamati, P, Saldanha, RDF, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Santos, JV, Milicevic, MMMS, Sartorius, B, Satpathy, M, Schneider, IJC, Schwebel, DC, Sepanlou, SG, Shabaninejad, H, Shaikh, MAA, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Sharif, M, Sharif-Alhoseini, M, Islam, SMS, She, J, Sheikh, A, Shen, J, Sheth, KN, Shibuya, K, Shiferaw, MS, Shigematsu, M, Shiri, R, Shiue, I, Shoman, H, Siabani, S, Siddiqi, TJ, Silva, JP, Silveira, DGA, Sinha, DN, Smith, M, Soares Filho, AM, Sobhani, S, Soofi, M, Soriano, JB, Soyiri, IN, Stein, DJ, Stokes, MA, Sufiyan, MB, Sunguya, BF, Sunshine, JE, Sykes, BL, Szoeke, CEI, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Ao, BJT, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Tekle, MG, Temsah, M-H, Temsah, O, Topor-Madry, R, Tortajada-Girbes, M, Bach, XT, Khanh, BT, Car, LT, Ukwaja, KN, Ullah, I, Usman, MS, Uthman, OA, Valdez, PR, Vasankari, TJ, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, FS, Wagnew, FS, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y-P, Weldegwergs, KG, Werdecker, A, Wijeratne, T, Winkler, AS, Wyper, GMA, Yano, Y, Yaseri, M, Yasin, YJ, Ye, P, Yimer, EM, Yip, P, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, S-J, Yost, MG, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Zaidi, Z, Bin Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zenebe, ZM, Zodpey, S, Feigin, VL, Vos, T, Murray, CJL, James, SL, Theadom, A, Ellenbogen, RG, Bannick, MS, Mountjoy-Venning, WC, Lucchesi, LR, Abbasi, N, Abdulkader, R, Abraha, HN, Adsuar, JC, Afarideh, M, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akinyemi, RO, Akseer, N, Alahdab, F, Alebel, A, Alghnam, SA, Ali, BA, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, H, Ansha, MG, Antonio, CAT, Appiah, SCY, Ariani, F, Asefa, NG, Asgedom, SW, Atique, S, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayuk, TB, Azzopardi, PS, Badali, H, Badawi, A, Balalla, S, Banstola, A, Barker-Collo, SL, Barnighausen, TW, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, BB, Belachew, AB, Belay, YA, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Berhane, A, Beuran, M, Bhalla, A, Bhaumik, S, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgo, B, Biffino, M, Bijani, A, Bililign, N, Birungi, C, Boufous, S, Brazinova, A, Brown, AW, Car, M, Cardenas, R, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Catala-Lopez, F, Chaiah, Y, Champs, AP, Chang, J-C, Choi, J-YJ, Christopher, DJ, Cooper, C, Crowe, CS, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daryani, A, Davitoiu, DV, Degefa, MG, Demoz, GT, Deribe, K, Djalalinia, S, Huyen, PD, Doku, DT, Drake, TM, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, El-Khatib, Z, Eskandarieh, S, Esteghamati, A, Esteghamati, S, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Farzaei, MH, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Feyissa, GT, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fukumoto, T, Ganji, M, Gankpe, FG, Gebre, AK, Gebrehiwot, TT, Gezae, KE, Gopalkrishna, G, Goulart, AC, Haagsma, JA, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Haro, JM, Hassankhani, H, Hassen, HY, Havmoeller, R, Hawley, C, Hay, SI, Hegazy, MI, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Hibstu, DT, Hoffman, HJ, Hole, MK, Rad, EH, Hosseini, SM, Hostiuc, S, Hu, G, Hussen, MA, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SN, Jakovljevic, M, Jayaraman, S, Jha, RP, Jonas, JB, Jones, KM, Shushtari, ZJ, Jozwiak, JJ, Jurisson, M, Kabir, A, Kahsay, A, Kahssay, M, Kalani, R, Karch, A, Kasaeian, A, Kassa, GM, Kassa, TD, Kassa, ZY, Kengne, AP, Khader, YS, Khafaie, MA, Khalid, N, Khalil, I, Khan, EA, Khan, MS, Khang, Y-H, Khazaie, H, Khoja, AT, Khubchandani, J, Kiadaliri, AA, Kim, D, Kim, Y-E, Kisa, A, Koyanagi, A, Krohn, KJ, Defo, BK, Bicer, BK, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Lalloo, R, Lami, FH, Lansingh, VC, Laryea, DO, Latifi, A, Leshargie, CT, Levi, M, Li, S, Liben, ML, Lotufo, PA, Lunevicius, R, Mahotra, NB, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Manda, A-L, Mansournia, MA, Massenburg, BB, Mate, KKV, Mehndiratta, MM, Mehta, V, Meles, H, Melese, A, Memiah, PTN, Mendoza, W, Mengistu, G, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, TJ, Mestrovic, T, Miazgowski, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirica, A, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Mohammadi, M, Mokdad, AH, Molokhia, M, Monasta, L, Mondello, S, Moosazadeh, M, Moradi, G, Moradi, M, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moradinazar, M, Morrison, SD, Moschos, MM, Mousavi, SM, Murthy, S, Musa, KI, Mustafa, G, Naghavi, M, Naik, G, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Nascimento, BR, Negoi, I, Trang, HN, Nichols, E, Ningrum, DNA, Nirayo, YL, Nyasulu, PS, Ofori-Asenso, R, Ogbo, FA, Oh, I-H, Okoro, A, Olagunju, AT, Olagunju, TO, Olivares, PR, Otstavnov, SS, Owolabi, MO, Mahesh, PA, Pakhale, S, Pandey, AR, Pesudovs, K, Pinilla-Monsalve, GD, Polinder, S, Poustchi, H, Prakash, S, Qorbani, M, Radfar, A, Rafay, A, Rafiei, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Rahman, MA, Rai, RK, Rajati, F, Ram, U, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Reiner, RC, Reis, C, Renzaho, AMN, Resnikoff, S, Rezaei, S, Rezaeian, S, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Roy, N, Ruhago, GM, Saddik, B, Safari, H, Safiri, S, Sahraian, MA, Salamati, P, Saldanha, RDF, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Santos, JV, Milicevic, MMMS, Sartorius, B, Satpathy, M, Schneider, IJC, Schwebel, DC, Sepanlou, SG, Shabaninejad, H, Shaikh, MAA, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Sharif, M, Sharif-Alhoseini, M, Islam, SMS, She, J, Sheikh, A, Shen, J, Sheth, KN, Shibuya, K, Shiferaw, MS, Shigematsu, M, Shiri, R, Shiue, I, Shoman, H, Siabani, S, Siddiqi, TJ, Silva, JP, Silveira, DGA, Sinha, DN, Smith, M, Soares Filho, AM, Sobhani, S, Soofi, M, Soriano, JB, Soyiri, IN, Stein, DJ, Stokes, MA, Sufiyan, MB, Sunguya, BF, Sunshine, JE, Sykes, BL, Szoeke, CEI, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Ao, BJT, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Tekle, MG, Temsah, M-H, Temsah, O, Topor-Madry, R, Tortajada-Girbes, M, Bach, XT, Khanh, BT, Car, LT, Ukwaja, KN, Ullah, I, Usman, MS, Uthman, OA, Valdez, PR, Vasankari, TJ, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, FS, Wagnew, FS, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y-P, Weldegwergs, KG, Werdecker, A, Wijeratne, T, Winkler, AS, Wyper, GMA, Yano, Y, Yaseri, M, Yasin, YJ, Ye, P, Yimer, EM, Yip, P, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, S-J, Yost, MG, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Zaidi, Z, Bin Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zenebe, ZM, Zodpey, S, Feigin, VL, Vos, T, and Murray, CJL
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. FINDINGS: In 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·30-30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78-1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55·50
Published: 2019

50. Past, present, and future of global health financing: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995-2050

Author: Chang, AY, Cowling, K, Micah, AE, Chapin, A, Chen, CS, Ikilezi, G, Sadat, N, Tsakalos, G, Wu, J, Younker, T, Zhao, Y, Zlavog, BS, Abbafati, C, Ahmed, AE, Alam, K, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almalki, MJ, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ammar, W, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Ayanore, MA, Azari, S, Azzopardi-Muscat, N, Bagherzadeh, M, Baernighausen, TW, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Belay, YB, Belay, YA, Belete, H, Berbada, DA, Berman, AE, Beuran, M, Bijani, A, Busse, R, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Alberto Camera, L, Catala-Lopez, F, Chauhan, BG, Constantin, M-M, Crowe, CS, Cucu, A, Dalal, K, De Neve, J-W, Deipatine, S, Demeke, FM, Huyen, PD, Dubey, M, El Tantawi, M, Eskandarieh, S, Esmaeili, R, Fakhar, M, Fazaeli, AA, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Fukumoto, T, Fullman, N, Galan, A, Gamkrelidze, A, Gezae, KE, Ghajar, A, Ghashghaee, A, Goginashvili, K, Haakenstad, A, Bidgoli, HH, Hamidi, S, Harb, HL, Hasanpoor, E, Hassen, HY, Hay, S, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Heredia-Pi, I, Herteliu, C, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Rad, EH, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, S, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Jakovljevic, M, Jalali, A, James, SL, Jonas, JB, Jurisson, M, Kadel, R, Matin, BK, Kasaeian, A, Kasaye, HK, Kassaw, MW, Karyani, AK, Khabiri, R, Khan, J, Khan, MN, Khang, Y-H, Kisa, A, Kissimova-Skarbek, K, Kohler, S, Koyanagi, A, Krohn, KJ, Leung, R, Lim, L-L, Lorkowski, S, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Mansourian, M, Mantovani, LG, Massenburg, BB, Mckee, M, Mehta, V, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, TJ, Kostova, NM, Miller, TR, Mirrakhimov, EM, Mohajer, B, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Morrison, SD, Mousavi, SM, Muthupandian, S, Nagarajan, AJ, Nangia, V, Cuong, TN, Huong, LTN, Son, HN, Nosratnejad, S, Oladimeji, O, Olgiati, S, Olusanya, JO, Onwujekwe, OE, Otstavnov, SS, Pana, A, Pereira, DM, Piroozi, B, Prada, S, Qorbani, M, Rabiee, M, Rabiee, N, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Mcwaghar, V, Ram, U, Ranabhat, CL, Ranta, A, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rezaei, S, Roro, EM, Rostami, A, Rubino, S, Salahshoor, M, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Santos, JV, Santric Milicevic, MM, Sao Jose, BP, Savic, M, Schwendicke, F, Sepanlou, SG, Sepehrimanesh, M, Sheikh, A, Shrime, MG, Sisay, S, Soltani, S, Soofi, M, Srinivasan, V, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Torre, A, Tovani-Palone, MR, Bach, XT, Khanh, BT, Undurraga, EA, Valdez, PR, Van Boven, JFM, Vargas, V, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vladimirov, SK, Vlassov, V, Vollmer, S, Giang, TV, Wolfe, CDA, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Bin Zaman, S, Zangeneh, A, Zegeye, EA, Ziapour, A, Chew, A, Murray, CJL, Dieleman, JL, Chang, AY, Cowling, K, Micah, AE, Chapin, A, Chen, CS, Ikilezi, G, Sadat, N, Tsakalos, G, Wu, J, Younker, T, Zhao, Y, Zlavog, BS, Abbafati, C, Ahmed, AE, Alam, K, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almalki, MJ, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ammar, W, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Ayanore, MA, Azari, S, Azzopardi-Muscat, N, Bagherzadeh, M, Baernighausen, TW, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Belay, YB, Belay, YA, Belete, H, Berbada, DA, Berman, AE, Beuran, M, Bijani, A, Busse, R, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Alberto Camera, L, Catala-Lopez, F, Chauhan, BG, Constantin, M-M, Crowe, CS, Cucu, A, Dalal, K, De Neve, J-W, Deipatine, S, Demeke, FM, Huyen, PD, Dubey, M, El Tantawi, M, Eskandarieh, S, Esmaeili, R, Fakhar, M, Fazaeli, AA, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Fukumoto, T, Fullman, N, Galan, A, Gamkrelidze, A, Gezae, KE, Ghajar, A, Ghashghaee, A, Goginashvili, K, Haakenstad, A, Bidgoli, HH, Hamidi, S, Harb, HL, Hasanpoor, E, Hassen, HY, Hay, S, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Heredia-Pi, I, Herteliu, C, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Rad, EH, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, S, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Jakovljevic, M, Jalali, A, James, SL, Jonas, JB, Jurisson, M, Kadel, R, Matin, BK, Kasaeian, A, Kasaye, HK, Kassaw, MW, Karyani, AK, Khabiri, R, Khan, J, Khan, MN, Khang, Y-H, Kisa, A, Kissimova-Skarbek, K, Kohler, S, Koyanagi, A, Krohn, KJ, Leung, R, Lim, L-L, Lorkowski, S, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Mansourian, M, Mantovani, LG, Massenburg, BB, Mckee, M, Mehta, V, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, TJ, Kostova, NM, Miller, TR, Mirrakhimov, EM, Mohajer, B, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Morrison, SD, Mousavi, SM, Muthupandian, S, Nagarajan, AJ, Nangia, V, Cuong, TN, Huong, LTN, Son, HN, Nosratnejad, S, Oladimeji, O, Olgiati, S, Olusanya, JO, Onwujekwe, OE, Otstavnov, SS, Pana, A, Pereira, DM, Piroozi, B, Prada, S, Qorbani, M, Rabiee, M, Rabiee, N, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Mcwaghar, V, Ram, U, Ranabhat, CL, Ranta, A, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rezaei, S, Roro, EM, Rostami, A, Rubino, S, Salahshoor, M, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Santos, JV, Santric Milicevic, MM, Sao Jose, BP, Savic, M, Schwendicke, F, Sepanlou, SG, Sepehrimanesh, M, Sheikh, A, Shrime, MG, Sisay, S, Soltani, S, Soofi, M, Srinivasan, V, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Torre, A, Tovani-Palone, MR, Bach, XT, Khanh, BT, Undurraga, EA, Valdez, PR, Van Boven, JFM, Vargas, V, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vladimirov, SK, Vlassov, V, Vollmer, S, Giang, TV, Wolfe, CDA, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Bin Zaman, S, Zangeneh, A, Zegeye, EA, Ziapour, A, Chew, A, Murray, CJL, and Dieleman, JL
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. METHODS: We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more reso
Published: 2019

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