1. Incorporating biotic interactions to better model current and future vegetation of the maritime Antarctic.
- Author
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Rocha, Bernardo, Pinho, Pedro, Giordani, Paolo, Concostrina-Zubiri, Laura, Vieira, Gonçalo, Pina, Pedro, Branquinho, Cristina, and Matos, Paula
- Subjects
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CLIMATE change models , *STRUCTURAL equation modeling , *VEGETATION patterns , *ECOLOGICAL models ,ANTARCTIC climate - Abstract
Maritime Antarctica's harsh abiotic conditions forged simple terrestrial ecosystems, mostly constituted of bryophytes, lichens, and vascular plants. Though biotic interactions are, together with abiotic factors, thought to help shape this ecosystem, influencing species' distribution and, indirectly, mediating their response to climate, the importance of these interactions is still fairly unknown. We modeled current and future abundance patterns of bryophytes, lichens, and vascular plants, accounting for biotic interactions and abiotic drivers, along a climatic gradient in maritime Antarctica. The influence of regional climate and other drivers was modeled using structural equation models, with and without biotic interactions. Models with biotic interactions performed better; the one offering higher ecological support was used to estimate current and future spatial distributions of vegetation. Results suggest that plants are confined to lower elevations, negatively impacting bryophytes and lichens, whereas at higher elevations both climate and other drivers influence bryophytes and lichens. Our findings strongly support the use of biotic interactions to predict the spatial distribution of Antarctic vegetation. [Display omitted] • Bryophytes, lichens, and plants constitute the bulk of Maritime Antarctic vegetation • Abiotic drivers only partially explained Antarctic vegetation abundance • Biotic interactions were key to further explain vegetation abundance patterns • These findings boost our understanding of climate change impact in Antarctica There is an urgent need to improve predictive ecological models of climate change effects in maritime Antarctic vegetation. Rocha et al. uncovered that the inclusion of biotic interactions is a vital step to better explain and predict vegetation abundance patterns. These findings contribute toward building better conservation tools for the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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