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Abstract It is unclear how increasing body mass index (BMI) influences risk of cancer in young women. We used data from the Medical Birth, Patient and Cause of Death registers collected between 1982 and 2014 to determine the risk of obesity-related cancer types, breast cancer, all cancer and cancer-related death in relation to BMI in 1,386,725 women, aged between 18 and 45 years, in Sweden. During a median follow-up of 16.3 years (IQR 7.7–23.5), 9808 women developed cancer. The hazard ratio (HR) of endometrial and ovarian cancer increased with higher BMI from 1.08 (95% CI 0.93–1.24) and 1.08 (95% CI 0.96–1.21) among women with BMI 22.5–

Background: While prevalence estimates differ by definition of metabolic syndrome (MetS), it is less clear how different definitions affect associations with alcohol consumption. Methods: We included 3051 adults aged 25–77 from the baseline examination of the Swedish INTERGENE cohort (2001–2004). Using multiple logistic regression, we investigated cross-sectional associations between ethanol intake and MetS defined according to the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III), the International Diabetes Federation (IDF), and the Joint Interim Statement (JIS). Alcohol exposure categories comprised abstinence, and low, medium, and high consumption defined via sex-specific tertiles of ethanol intake among current consumers. Covariates included sociodemographics, health, and lifestyle factors. Results: MetS prevalence estimates varied between 13.9 % (ATP III) and 25.3 % (JIS), with higher prevalence in men than women. Adjusted for age and sex, medium-high alcohol consumption was associated with lower odds of MetS compared to low consumption, while no difference was observed for abstainers. Only the most specific (and thus severe) definition of MetS (ATP III) showed decreasing odds for ethanol intake when adjusted for all covariates. Conclusion: Our study shows that alcohol-related associations differ by definition of MetS. The finding that individuals with the most stringently defined MetS may benefit from alcohol consumption calls for further well-controlled studies.

Background and aims Pre-eclampsia complicates 3–5% of pregnancies worldwide and is associated with adverse outcomes for the mother and the offspring. Pre-eclampsia and heart failure have common risk factors, including hypertension, obesity and diabetes. It is not known whether heart failure increases the risk of pre-eclampsia. This study examines whether pregestational heart failure increases the risk of pre-eclampsia.Methods In a registry-based case–cohort study that included all pregnancies in Sweden (n=3 125 527) between 1990 and 2019, all pregnancies with pre-eclampsia (n=90 354) were identified and up to five control pregnancies (n=451 466) for each case were chosen, matched on the mother’s birth year. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the impact of heart failure on the risk of pre-eclampsia, with adjustment for established risk factors and other cardiovascular diseases.Results Women with heart failure had no increased risk for pre-eclampsia, OR 1.02 (95% CI 0.69 to 1.50). Women with valvular heart disease had an increased OR of preterm pre-eclampsia, with an adjusted OR of 1.78 (95% CI 1.04 to 3.06). Hypertension and diabetes were independent risk factors for pre-eclampsia. Obesity, multifetal pregnancies, in vitro fertilisation, older age, Nordic origin and nulliparity were more common among women who developed pre-eclampsia compared with controls.Conclusion Women with heart failure do not have an increased risk of pre-eclampsia. However, women with valvular heart disease prior to pregnancy have an increased risk of developing preterm pre-eclampsia independent of other known risk factors.

Abstract Aims The impact of hospital readmissions on the outcomes of heart failure (HF) patients is well known. However, data on temporal trends of cause‐specific hospital readmissions in these patients are limited. Methods and results From 1987 to 2014, we identified and followed up for 1 year 608 135 patients ≥18 years hospitalized with HF according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 9 and 10 from the National Inpatient Register. Readmissions for cardiovascular (CVD) and non‐CVD causes and co‐morbidities were defined according to ICD‐9 and ICD‐10 codes. We analysed trends in the incidence rate of readmissions, the median time to the first rehospitalization, and the time to readmission, stratified by sex, age groups and cause of rehospitalization using linear regression. During our study, 1 year all‐cause mortality decreased (β = −4.93, P

Abstract Background Patients with type 2 diabetes have an increased risk of death and cardiovascular events and people with diabetes or prediabetes have been found to have increased atherosclerotic burden in the coronary and carotid arteries. This study will estimate the cross-sectional prevalence of atherosclerosis in the coronary and carotid arteries in individuals with prediabetes and diabetes, compared with normoglycaemic individuals in a large population-based cohort. Methods The 30,154 study participants, 50–64 years, were categorized according to their fasting glycaemic status or self-reported data as normoglycaemic, prediabetes, and previously undetected or known diabetes. Prevalence of affected coronary artery segments, severity of stenosis and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) were determined by coronary computed tomography angiography. Total atherosclerotic burden was assessed in the 11 clinically most relevant segments using the Segment Involvement Score and as the presence of any coronary atherosclerosis. The presence of atherosclerotic plaque in the carotid arteries was determined by ultrasound examination. Results Study participants with prediabetes (n = 4804, 16.0%) or diabetes (n = 2282, 7.6%) had greater coronary artery plaque burden, more coronary stenosis and higher CACS than normoglycaemic participants (all, p

Abstract Overweight and obesity rates have increased in recent decades, particularly among the younger population. The long-term consequences of obesity with respect to early venous thromboembolism (VTE) in women have not been established. The aim was to investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) in early pregnancy as a proxy for non-pregnant weight and long-term post-pregnancy risk of VTE in women. This registry-based prospective cohort study analysed data from the Swedish Medical Birth Registry, linked to the National Patient and the National Cause of Death Registries for information on post-pregnancy long-term risk of VTE. Cox proportional hazards model were used to determine the association between BMI at baseline and VTE events during follow-up starting 1 year after baseline. The mean age at registration was 27.5 (standard deviation, 4.9) years. During a median follow-up duration of 12 years (interquartile range, 6–21 years) starting 1 year after the first antenatal visit, 1765 and 2549 women had a deep vein thrombosis and/or pulmonary embolism. The risk of VTE linearly increased with increasing BMI. Compared to women with 20 ≤ BMI

Abstract Objective Since obesity and poor fitness appear to be unfavorable for both cardiovascular health and coping with viral infections such as COVID‐19, they are of specific interest in light of the increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory events now seen after infection with SARS‐CoV‐2. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to investigate how body mass index (BMI) and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) in late adolescence are associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, and mortality after COVID‐19. Methods In this study, 1.5 million 18‐year‐old Swedish men with BMI and CRF measured during enlistment for military service 1968–2005 were included. Hospitalized and non‐hospitalized COVID‐19 cases were identified through the Patient Register or positive polymerase chain reaction tests, and age‐matched with non‐infected controls. CVD, respiratory disease, and mortality after COVID‐19 were divided into 180days post‐infection. Cox regression models were used. Results Hospitalized COVID‐19 cases (n = 9839), compared to controls, had >10‐fold, 50 to 70‐fold, and >70‐fold hazards of CVD, respiratory disease, and mortality over the initial 60 days post‐infection with little variation across BMI or CRF categories. The elevated risks persisted at declining levels >180 days. For non‐hospitalized COVID‐19 cases (n = 181,822), there was a 4‐ to 7‐fold increased acute mortality risk, and high CRF was associated with lower risk of post‐infectious respiratory disease. Conclusions The high hazards of adverse outcomes during the first two months after COVID‐19 hospitalization, and across BMI and CRF categories, declined rapidly but were still elevated after six months. Adolescent CRF was associated with respiratory disease after COVID‐19 without hospitalization, which gives further support to the health benefits of physical activity.

Objectives To investigate work and living conditions as determinants of COVID-19 infection risks in foreign-born workers in non-healthcare occupations.Design Data were collected according to a qualitative design, using semistructured interviews. Verbatim transcripts of these interviews were analysed according to systematic text condensation.Participants We recruited foreign-born workers (n=15) and union representatives (n=6) among taxi drivers, bus and tram drivers, pizza bakers, cleaners and property caretakers, all indicated as risk occupations during COVID-19 in Sweden.Results Four overarching themes were found: ‘virus exposure at work’, ‘aspects of low status and undervalued work’, ‘lack of access to information’ and ‘foreign-born persons’ position’. Virus exposure was frequent due to many social interactions over a workday, out of which several were physically close, sometimes to the point of touching. The respondents fulfilled important societal functions, but their work was undervalued due to low job status, and they had little influence on improving safety at work. Lack of health literacy limited foreign-born workers to access information about COVID-19 infection risks and protection, since most information from health organisations and employers was only available in Swedish and not adapted to their living conditions or disseminated through unknown channels. Instead, many turned to personal contacts or social media, through which a lot of misinformation was spread. Foreign-born persons were also subjected to exploitation since a Swedish residency permit could depend on maintaining employment, making it almost impossible to make demands for improved safety at work.Conclusions Structural factors and a lack of adapted information manifested themselves as fewer possibilities for protection against COVID-19. In a globalised world, new widespread diseases are likely to occur, and more knowledge is needed to protect all workers equally. Our results are transferable to similar contexts and bring forth aspects that can be tried in quantitative studies or public health interventions.Cite Now

Abstract Urbanization may influence physical activity (PA) levels, although little evidence is available for low- and middle- income countries where urbanization is occurring fastest. We evaluated associations between urbanization and total PA, as well as work-, leisure-, home-, and transport-specific PA, for 138,206 adults living in 698 communities across 22 countries within the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. The 1-week long-form International PA Questionnaire was administered at baseline (2003–2015). We used satellite-derived population density and impervious surface area estimates to quantify baseline urbanization levels for study communities, as well as change measures for 5- and 10-years prior to PA surveys. We used generalized linear mixed effects models to examine associations between urbanization measures and PA levels, controlling for individual, household and community factors. Higher community baseline levels of population density (− 12.4% per IQR, 95% CI − 16.0, − 8.7) and impervious surface area (− 29.2% per IQR, 95% CI − 37.5, − 19.7), as well as the rate of change in 5-year population density (− 17.2% per IQR, 95% CI − 25.7, − 7.7), were associated with lower total PA levels. Important differences in the associations between urbanization and PA were observed between PA domains, country-income levels, urban/rural status, and sex. These findings provide new information on the complex associations between urbanization and PA.

Abstract Aim Heart failure (HF) is predominantly a disorder of the elderly. During the last decades, cardiovascular primary and secondary prevention and life expectancy have improved. Accordingly, trends in incidence and prevalence of HF are dynamic and may differ over time by age and gender. We aim to investigate the overall and age‐specific and sex‐specific trends, in incidence, prevalence, and the proportion with co‐morbidities of HF over a 10 year period in Region Västra Götaland, Sweden. Methods and results The VEGA database is an administrative database of all patients managed in hospital and/or in primary care (private and public) living in Region Västra Götaland. All patients with a main or contributory diagnosis of HF (I50) aged 18 years or older between 2008 and 2017 were included. Incidence and prevalence of HF were calculated based on the entire adult population of Region Västra Götaland. The adult population in Region Västra Götaland increased by 8% from 2008 (n = 1 234 609) to 2017 (n = 1 338 906). Half the population was female and 69% 75 years. A constantly higher incidence of HF was seen for men compared with women in all age categories, RR 1.46 (95% CI 1.44–1.49), P 85 years of age who had a prevalence of 16.5% (men) and 14.6% (women) in 2008 and 23.5% (men) and 21.5% (women) in 2017. The overall 1 year mortality rate was 22.7%. When adjusted for age, women had a lower risk for death by 13% compared with men [hazard ratio 0.87 (95% CI 0.84–0.90, P 85 years. Our findings emphasize the need for implementation of effective preventive strategies for HF.

Background Coronary heart disease remains the dominant cause of death worldwide. To improve cardiovascular disease prevention, knowledge of early key risk factors, especially those that are modifiable, is essential. The ongoing global obesity epidemic is of particular concern. We aimed to determine whether body mass index at conscription predicts early acute coronary events among men in Sweden. Methods and Results This was a population‐based Swedish cohort study of conscripts (n=1 668 921; mean age, 18.3 years; 1968–2005), with follow‐up through linkage to the nationwide Swedish patient and death registries. Risk of a first acute coronary event (hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction or coronary death) during follow‐up (1–48 years) was calculated with generalized additive models. Objective baseline measures of fitness and cognition were included in the models in secondary analyses. During follow‐up, there were 51 779 acute coronary events, of which 6457 (12.5%) were fatal within 30 days. Compared with men at the lowest end of the normal body mass index spectrum (body mass index, 18.5 kg/m2), an increasing risk for a first acute coronary event was observed, with hazard ratios (HRs) peaking at 40 years of age. After multivariable adjustments, men with a body mass index of 35 kg/m2 had an HR of 4.84 (95% CI, 4.29–5.46) for an event before the age of 40 years. Conclusions An increased risk of an early acute coronary event was detectable within normal levels of body weight at the age of 18 years, increasing to almost 5‐fold in the highest weight category at 40 years of age. Given increasing levels of body weight and prevalence of overweight and obesity in young adults, the current decrease in coronary heart disease incidence in Sweden may flatten or even reverse in the near future.

Abstract Aim We aim to assess the risk of heart failure in patients with obesity with and without gastric bypass surgery compared with population controls. Methods and results This cohort study included all patients aged 20–65 years with a first ever registered principal diagnosis of obesity in the Swedish Patient Register in 2001–2013. These patients were matched by age, sex, and region with two population controls from the general Swedish population without obesity diagnosis. The obesity cohort was divided into two groups: 27 882 patients who had undergone gastric bypass surgery within 2 years of obesity diagnosis and 39 564 patients who had not undergone such surgery. These groups were compared with 55 149 and 78 004 matched population controls, respectively. Cox regression provided hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusted for age, education, and sex. During follow‐up (maximum 10 years, median 4.4 years, and interquartile range 2.5–7.2 years), 1884 participants were hospitalized for heart failure. Compared with population controls, gastric bypass patients had no excess risk of heart failure during the initial 0–≤4 years of follow‐up (HR = 1.35 [95% CI = 0.96–1.91]) but a marked increased risk during the final >4–10 years of follow‐up (HR = 3.28 [95% CI = 2.25–4.77]). Non‐operated patients with obesity had a marked excess risk of heart failure throughout the study period compared with population controls. Conclusions Gastric bypass for obesity seems to reduce the risk of heart failure to levels similar to the general population during the initial 4 years after surgery, but not thereafter.

Background and Purpose The association of dyslipidemia with stroke has been inconsistent, which may be due to differing associations within etiological stroke subtypes. We sought to determine the association of lipoproteins and apolipoproteins within stroke subtypes. Methods Standardized incident case-control STROKE study in 32 countries. Cases were patients with acute hospitalized first stroke, and matched by age, sex and site to controls. Concentrations of total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), apolipoprotein A1 (apoA1), and apoB were measured. Non-HDL-C was calculated. We estimated multivariable odds ratio (OR) and population attributable risk percentage (PAR%). Outcome measures were all stroke, ischemic stroke (and subtypes), and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Results Our analysis included 11,898 matched case-control pairs; 77.3% with ischemic stroke and 22.7% with ICH. Increasing apoB (OR, 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 1.14 per standard deviation [SD]) and LDL-C (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.10 per SD) were associated with an increase in risk of ischemic stroke, but a reduced risk of ICH. Increased apoB was significantly associated with large vessel stroke (PAR 13.4%; 95% CI, 5.6 to 28.4) and stroke of undetermined cause. Higher HDL-C (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.78 per SD) and apoA1 (OR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.61 to 0.66 per SD) were associated with ischemic stroke (and subtypes). While increasing HDL-C was associated with an increased risk of ICH (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.27 per SD), apoA1 was associated with a reduced risk (OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.85 per SD). ApoB/A1 (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.32 to 1.44 per SD) had a stronger magnitude of association than the ratio of LDL-C/HDL-C (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.21 to 1.31 per SD) with ischemic stroke (P

Abstract High body mass index (BMI) is associated with severe COVID-19 but findings regarding the need of intensive care (IC) and mortality are mixed. Using electronic health records, we identified all patients in western Sweden hospitalised with COVID-19 to evaluate 30-day mortality or assignment to IC. Adjusted logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for outcomes. Of totally 9761 patients, BMI was available in 7325 (75%), included in the study. There was a marked inverse association between BMI and age (underweight and normal weight patients were on average 78 and 75 years, whereas overweight and obese were 68 and 62 years). While older age, male sex and several comorbidities associated with higher mortality after multivariable adjustment, BMI did not. However, BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.21–1.75) was associated with need of IC; this association was restricted to women (BMI ≥ 30; OR 1.96 (95% CI 1.41–2.73), and not significant in men; OR 1.22 (95% CI 0.97–1.54). In this comprehensive hospital population with COVID-19, BMI was not associated with 30-day mortality risk. Among the obese, women, but not men, had a higher risk of assignment to IC.

Cancer is a risk factor for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We aimed to define sex-specific risk of preceding cancer in patients with a first-time VTE by conducting a nationwide Swedish registry-based study including 298 172 patients with VTE and 1 185 079 matched controls. This included 44 685 patients with a diagnosis of cancer at/or within 1 year before a VTE diagnosis. Female patients with VTE had a higher multivariable adjusted odds ratios of preceding cancer than male patients with VTE (5.5 [99% confidence interval 5.4-5.7] vs 3.9 [3.8-4.0]). The highest risk of cancer in patients with VTE were found for pancreatic cancer (women: 19.6 [15.8-24.4]; men: 17.2 [13.7-21.6]) and brain cancer (women: 17.4 [12.9-23.4]; men: 17.5 [13.8-22.2]). Weak associations were seen between VTE and bladder/urothelial cancer (women: 1.31 [1.12-1.53]; men: 1.34 [1.23-1.47]), prostate cancer (men: 2.17 [2.07-2.27]), malignant melanoma (women: 2.51 [2.07-3.05]; men: 2.67 [2.23-3.18]), and kidney cancer (women: 3.20 [2.49-4.11]; men: 3.33 [2.79-4.07]). In conclusion, associations with VTE were weak for bladder/urothelial cancer and kidney cancer, and strong for pancreatic, brain, and biliary cancers.

Background: Studies on risk factors for severe COVID-19 in people of working age have generally not included non-working persons or established population attributable fractions (PAFs) for occupational and other factors. Objectives: We describe the effect of job-related, sociodemographic, and other exposures on the incidence, relative risks and PAFs of severe COVID-19 in individuals aged 18–64. Methods: We conducted a registry-based study in Swedish citizens aged 18–64 from 1 January 2020 to 1 February 2021 with respect to COVID-19-related hospitalizations and death. Results: Of 6,205,459 persons, 272,043 (7.5%) were registered as infected, 3399 (0.05%) needed intensive care, and 620 (0.01%) died, with an estimated case fatality rate of 0.06% over the last 4-month period when testing was adequate. Non-Nordic origin was associated with a RR for need of intensive care of 3·13, 95%CI 2·91–3·36, and a PAF of 32·2% after adjustment for age, sex, work, region and comorbidities. In a second model with occupation as main exposure, and adjusted for age, sex, region, comorbidities and origin, essential workers had an RR of 1·51, 95%CI, 1·35–1·6, blue-collar workers 1·18, 95%CI 1·06–1·31, school staff 1·21, 95%CI 1·01–1·46, and health and social care workers 1·89, 95%CI 1·67–2·135) compared with people able to work from home, with altogether about 13% of the PAF associated with these occupations. Essential workers and blue-collar workers, but no other job categories had higher risk of death, adjusted RRs of 1·79, 95%CI 1·34–2·38 and 1·37, 95%CI 1·04–1·81, with adjusted PAFs of altogether 9%. Conclusion: Among people of working age in Sweden, overall mortality and case fatality were low. Occupations that require physical presence at work were associated with elevated risk of needing intensive care for COVID-19, with 14% cases attributable to this factor, and 9% of deaths.

Abstract Aims This study was performed to compare trends in home‐time for patients with heart failure (HF) between those of working age and those of retirement age in Sweden from 1992 to 2012. Methods and results The National Inpatient Register (IPR) was used to identify all patients aged 18 to 84 years with a first hospitalization for HF in Sweden from 1992 to 2012. Information on date of death, comorbidities, and sociodemographic factors were collected from the Swedish National Register on Cause of Death, the IPR, and the longitudinal integration database for health insurance and labour market studies, respectively. The patients were divided into two groups according to their age: working age (

Abstract Aims To compare trends in short‐term and long‐term survival of patients with heart failure (HF) compared with controls from the general population. Methods and results We used data from the Swedish National Inpatient Registry to identify all patients aged ≥18 years with a first recorded diagnosis of HF between 1 January 1987 and 31 December 2014 and compared them with controls matched on age and sex from the Total Population Register. We included 702 485 patients with HF and 1 306 183 controls. In patients with HF aged 18–64 years, short‐term (29 days to 6 months) and long‐term mortality (>11 years) decreased from 166 and 76.6 per 1000 person‐years in 1987 to 2000 to 99.6 and 49.4 per 1000 person‐years, respectively, in 2001 to 2014. During the same period, mortality improved marginally, in those aged ≥65 years: short‐time mortality from 368.8 to 326.2 per 1000 person‐years and long‐term mortality from 219.6 to 193.9 per 1000 person‐years. In 1987–2000, patients aged 11 years) increased moderately from 2.49 (95% CI 2.41–2.57) and 3.16 (95% CI 3.07–3.24) in 1987–2000 to 4.35 (95% CI 4.09–4.63) and 4.11 (95% CI 3.49–4.85) in 2001–2014, largely because survival among controls improved more than that among patients with HF (P

Abstract Investigate trends in myocarditis incidence and prognosis in Sweden during 2000–2014. Little data exist concerning population-trends in incidence of hospitalizations for myocarditis and subsequent prognosis. Linking Swedish National Patient and Cause of Death Registers, we identified individuals ≥ 16 years with first-time diagnosis of myocarditis during 2000–2014. Reference population, matched for age and birth year (n = 16,622) was selected from Swedish Total Population Register. Among the 8 679 cases (75% men, 64%

Abstract Background Acquired aortic stenosis (AS) increases with age and has high mortality without intervention. Factors predicting its development are unclear, although atherosclerotic factors are assumed to be involved. Our aim in this study is to estimate the lifetime cumulative incidence and predictors of AS in middle-aged men. Methods We included a random sample of men (n = 9998) born 1915–1925 in Gothenburg, Sweden. From them, 7,494 were examined and followed until a diagnosis of AS or death (maximum follow-up time 42.8 years). We identified AS diagnosis from the Swedish National Patient Registry and deaths from the Swedish Cause of Death Registry by using International Classification of Disease (ICD) diagnostic criteria. To study time-dependent relationships between AS and risk factors with death as the competing risk, we divided the cohort into three overlapping follow-up groups: 25–43, 30–43 and 35–43 years. We used age-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model to identify predictors of AS. Results The lifelong cumulative incidence of AS was 3.2%. At baseline, participants in the third group had a healthier lifestyle, lower body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, and serum cholesterol levels. Higher BMI, obesity, cholesterol, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, smoking and heredity for stroke were associated with AS. With BMI of 20–22.5 as a reference, hazard ratios of being diagnosed with AS for men with a baseline BMI of 25–27.5 kg/m2, 27.5–30 kg/m2 and > 30 kg/m2 were 1.99 (95% CI 1.12–3.55), 2.98 (95% CI 1.65–5.40) and 3.55 (95% CI 1.84–6.87), respectively. Conclusions The lifetime cumulative incidence of AS in middle-aged male population was 3.2%. Multiple atherosclerotic risk factors, particularly high BMI might be associated with a higher risk of developing AS.

Background We sought to determine the role of obesity in adolescent men on development of atrial fibrillation (AF) and subsequent associated clinical outcomes in subjects diagnosed with AF. Methods and Results We conducted a nationwide, register‐based, cohort study of 1 704 467 men (mean age, 18.3±0.75 years) enrolled in compulsory military service in Sweden from 1969 through 2005. Height and weight, blood pressure, fitness, muscle strength, intelligence quotient, and medical disorders were recorded at baseline. Records obtained from the National Inpatient Registry and the Cause of Death Register were used to determine incidence and clinical outcomes of AF. During a median follow‐up of 32 years (interquartile range, 24–41 years), 36 693 cases (mean age at diagnosis, 52.4±10.6 years) of AF were recorded. The multivariable‐adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for AF increased from 1.06 (95% CI, 1.03–1.10) in individuals with body mass index (BMI) of 20.0 to 30 kg/m2 compared with those with BMI

Summary: Background: Historically, the incidence of cardiovascular disease and mortality in persons with Type 1 diabetes (T1D) has been increased compared to the general population. Contemporary studies on time trends of mortality and cardiovascular disease are sparse. Methods: In this observational study, T1D persons were identified in the Swedish National Diabetes Registry (n=45,575) and compared with matched controls from the general population (n=220,141). Incidence rates from 2002 to 2019 were estimated with respect to mortality and cardiovascular disease in persons with T1D overall and when stratified for prevalent cardiovascular and renal disease relative to controls. Findings: Mean age in persons with T1D was 32.4 years and 44.9% (20,446/45,575) were women. Age- and sex- adjusted mortality rates declined over time in both groups but remained significantly higher in those with T1D compared to controls during 2017–2019, 7.62 (95% CI 7.16; 8·08) vs. 2.23 (95% CI 2.13; 2.33) deaths per 1,000 person years. Myocardial infarction, heart failure and stroke decreased over time in both groups, with persistent excess risks in the range of 3.4–5.0 times from 2017 to 2019 in those with T1D. T1D persons ≥45 years without previous renal or cardiovascular complications had standardized mortality rates similar or even lower than controls 5.55 (4.51; 6.60) vs.7.08 (6.75; 7.40) respectively in the last time period. Interpretation: Excess mortality persisted over time in persons with T1D, largely in patients with cardiorenal complications. Improved secondary prevention with a focus on individualized treatment is needed to close the gap in mortality for individuals with T1D. Funding: This study was financed by grants from the ALF-agreement, NovoNordisk Foundation and the Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation.

Background: Identifying signs of medical distress prior to in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) is important to prevent IHCA and improve survival. The primary objective of this study was to investigate the association between signs of medical distress present within 60 minutes prior to cardiac arrest and survival after cardiac arrest. Methods: The register-based cohort study included adult patients (≥18 years) with IHCA in the Swedish Registry of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (SRCR) from 2017-01-01 to 2020–07-15. Signs of distress prior to IHCA were defined as the medical signs arrhythmia, pulmonary oedema, hypotension, hypoxia or seizures present within 60 minutes prior to cardiac arrest (pre-arrest signs). Using multivariable logistic regression, the association between these pre-arrest signs and 30-day survival was analysed in both unadjusted and adjusted models. The covariates used were demographics, comorbidities, characteristics and treatment of cardiac arrest. Results: In total, 8525 patients were included. After adjusting for covariates, patients with arrhythmia had a 58% higher probability of 30-day survival. The adjusted probability of 30-day survival was 41% and 52% lower for patients with hypotension and hypoxia prior to IHCA, respectively. Pulmonary oedema and seizures were not associated with any change in 30-day survival. Conclusions: Among signs of medical distress prior to in-hospital cardiac arrest, arrhythmia was associated with a higher 30-day survival. Hypotension and hypoxia were associated with lower survival after IHCA. These findings indicate that future research on survival after cardiac arrest should take pre-arrest signs into account as it impacts the prerequisites for survival.

Introduction: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death and disability and living in areas with low socio-economic status (SES) is associated with increased risk of CVD. Lifestyle factors such as smoking, physical inactivity, an unhealthy diet and harmful alcohol use are main risk factors that contribute to other modifiable risk factors, such as hypertension, raised blood cholesterol, obesity, and diabetes. The potential impact of area-level socio-economic status (ASES) on metabolic CVD risk factors via lifestyle behaviors independent of individual SES has not been investigated previously. Aims: To estimate associations of ASES with CVD risk factors and the mediating role of lifestyle behaviors independent of individual-level SES. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, we included 19,415 participants (52% women) from the seventh survey of the Tromsø Study (2015–2016) (Tromsø7). The exposure variable ASES was created by aggregating individual-level SES variables (education, income, housing ownership) at the geographical subdivision level. Individual-level SES data and geographical subdivision of Tromsø municipality (36 areas) were obtained from Statistics Norway. Variables from questionnaires and clinical examinations obtained from Tromsø7 were used as mediators (smoking, snuff, alcohol, and physical activity), while the outcome variables were body mass index (BMI), total/high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol ratio, waist circumference, hypertension, diabetes. Mediation and mediated moderation analysis were performed with age as a moderator, stratified by sex. Results: ASES was significantly associated with all outcome variables. CVD risk factor level declined with an increase in ASES. These associations were mediated by differences in smoking habits, alcohol use and physical activity. The associations of ASES with total/HDL cholesterol ratio and waist circumference (women) were moderated by age, and the moderating effects were mediated by smoking and physical activity in both sexes. The largest mediated effects were seen in the associations of ASES with total/HDL cholesterol ratio, with the mediators accounting for 43% of the observed effects. Conclusions: Living in lower SES areas is associated with increased CVD risk due to unhealthy lifestyle behaviors, such as smoking, alcohol use and physical inactivity. These associations were stronger in women and among older participants.

Abstract Obesity rates in adolescence and young adulthood have increased in Sweden, reflecting global trends. To which extent this occurs across different socioeconomic strata has not been clarified. The aim of the present study was to investigate trends in social inequalities in body mass index (BMI) in young/mid-adulthood Swedish women. We obtained weight and height for all women aged 20–45 years, at their first registered pregnancy (

Abstract Background Knowledge on differences in patients who present with deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and those with pulmonary embolism (PE) is incomplete. Objective To determine comorbidities and temporary provoking factors in patients with a first‐time PE or DVT. Methods This was a nationwide Swedish registry‐based, retrospective, case‐control study including 298 172 patients with first‐time venous thromboembolism (VTE) and 1 185 079 controls matched for age, sex, and county of residence, free of VTE at the time of matching. Results Patients with PE were older than those with DVT (mean age, 69 vs 66 years) and included slightly more women (PE, 53.4% vs DVT, 52.1%). After multivariable adjustment for comorbidities (within 7 years) and temporary provoking factors (within 3 months), heart failure (PE: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.64 [99% confidence interval [CI], 2.55‐2.73]; DVT: aOR, 1.66 [99% CI, 1.60‐1.72]), ischemic heart disease (PE: aOR, 1.51 [99% CI, 1.47‐1.56]; DVT: aOR, 1.01 [99% CI, 0.98‐1.04]), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (PE: aOR, 2.51 [99% CI, 2.40‐2.63]; DVT, 1.54 [99% CI, 1.47‐1.62]) were among diseases that showed higher odds ratios in patients with PE than in those with DVT, compared with controls. Comorbidities registered within 6 months were associated with higher aORs than those within 7 years. The highest population attributable risks for PE were for cancer (13.0%) and heart failure (11.7%). Conclusion Cardiopulmonary diseases, particularly with recent onset, imply a higher risk for PE, whereas orthopedic surgery and lower‐extremity fractures carry a higher risk of DVT.

Abstract Background Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) often develops after decades of preceding subclinical coronary atherosclerosis. Biomarkers are useful prognostic predictors of IHD, but their long-term predictive value in a general population has not been adequately studied. Purpose To investigate the early predictive value of multi-modality biomarkers in addition to clinical risk factors in incident IHD in a random male general population sample followed from 50 to 71 years of age. Method “The Study of Men Born in 1943” is a longitudinal cohort study during follow-up. All the men underwent a baseline examination in 1993, where a panel of biomarkers were analysed and incident IHD was registered during 21-year follow-ups. Results Of 739 participants, 97 men (13.1%) developed an IHD event. For time to first occurrence of IHD, univariable analyses showed that elevated levels of high sensitivity troponin T (hs-TNT), high sensitivity-C reactive protein (hs-CRP) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) were significant predictors of IHD. In addition, a high number of biomarkers with elevated levels (hs-TNT > 10 ng/L, hs-CRP > 1 mg/L, IL-6 > 8 ng/L and N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) > 100 pg/mL) increased predictive ability. In univariable and multivariable analysis high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) had the highest predictive ability. Hs-TNT provided better predictive ability than smoking, body mass index and glucose, and was an independent significant predictor when adjusted for HDL-C, total cholesterol and hypertension. Addition of biomarkers on top of clinical risk factors provided significantly better prediction as tested by likelihood ratio test (p = 0.033), but did not significantly enhance the model’s discriminative ability However, it appeared contributing to higher sensitivity in the late phase of follow-up. Conclusion In this random, middle-aged male population sample, the addition of biomarker hs-TNT was an independent significant predictor of IHD and significantly improved prediction, indicating the probability of a better prediction of long-term risk of IHD in a low-risk population. Trial registration: The study is registered at Clinical Trials.gov Identifier number: NCT03138122

Abstract Aims We investigated the 2 year rate of ischaemic stroke/transient ischaemic attack (IS) in patients with heart failure (HF) who were in sinus rhythm (HF‐SR) and aimed to develop a score for stratifying risk of IS in this population. Methods and results A total of 15 425 patients (mean age 71.5 years, 39% women) with HF‐SR enrolled in the Swedish Heart Failure Register were included; 28 815 age‐matched and sex‐matched controls, without a registered diagnosis of HF, were selected from the Swedish Population Register. The 2 year rate of IS was 3.0% in patients and 1.4% in controls. In the patient group, a risk score including age (1p for 65–74 years; 2p for 75–84 years; 3p for ≥85 years), previous IS (2p), ischaemic heart disease, diabetes, hypertension, kidney dysfunction, and New York Heart Association III/IV class (1p each) was generated. Over a mean follow‐up of 20.1 (SD 7.5) months, the cumulative incidences (per 1000 person‐years) of IS in patients with score 0 to ≥7 were 2.2, 5.3, 8.9, 13.2, 15.7, 20.4, 26.4, and 33.0, with hazard ratios for score 1 to ≥7 (with 0 as reference): 2.4, 4.1, 6.1, 7.2, 9.4, 12.2, and 15.3. The risk score performed modestly (area under the curve 63.7%; P = 0.4711 for lack of fit with a logistic model; P = 0.7062 with Poisson, scaled by deviance). Conclusions In terms of absolute risk, only 27.6% of patients had an annual IS incidence of ≤1%. To which extent this would be amenable to anticoagulant treatment remains conjectural. A score compiling age and specific co‐morbidities identified HF‐SR patients with increased risk of IS with modest discriminative ability.

Summary: Background: COVID-19 has caused profound socio-economic changes worldwide. However, internationally comparative data regarding the financial impact on individuals is sparse. Therefore, we conducted a survey of the financial impact of the pandemic on individuals, using an international cohort that has been well-characterized prior to the pandemic. Methods: Between August 2020 and September 2021, we surveyed 24,506 community-dwelling participants from the Prospective Urban-Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study across high (HIC), upper middle (UMIC)-and lower middle (LMIC)-income countries. We collected information regarding the impact of the pandemic on their self-reported personal finances and sources of income. Findings: Overall, 32.4% of participants had suffered an adverse financial impact, defined as job loss, inability to meet financial obligations or essential needs, or using savings to meet financial obligations. 8.4% of participants had lost a job (temporarily or permanently); 14.6% of participants were unable to meet financial obligations or essential needs at the time of the survey and 16.3% were using their savings to meet financial obligations. Participants with a post-secondary education were least likely to be adversely impacted (19.6%), compared with 33.4% of those with secondary education and 33.5% of those with pre-secondary education. Similarly, those in the highest wealth tertile were least likely to be financially impacted (26.7%), compared with 32.5% in the middle tertile and 30.4% in the bottom tertile participants. Compared with HICs, financial impact was greater in UMIC [odds ratio of 2.09 (1.88–2.33)] and greatest in LMIC [odds ratio of 16.88 (14.69–19.39)]. HIC participants with the lowest educational attainment suffered less financial impact (15.1% of participants affected) than those with the highest education in UMIC (22.0% of participants affected). Similarly, participants with the lowest education in UMIC experienced less financial impact (28.3%) than those with the highest education in LMIC (45.9%). A similar gradient was seen across country income categories when compared by pre-pandemic wealth status. Interpretation: The financial impact of the pandemic differs more between HIC, UMIC, and LMIC than between socio-economic categories within a country income level. The most disadvantaged socio-economic subgroups in HIC had a lower financial impact from the pandemic than the most advantaged subgroup in UMIC, with a similar disparity seen between UMIC and LMIC. Continued high levels of infection will exacerbate financial inequity between countries and hinder progress towards the sustainable development goals, emphasising the importance of effective measures to control COVID-19 and, especially, ensuring high vaccine coverage in all countries. Funding: Funding for this study was provided by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the International Development Research Centre.

IntroductionPortable spirometers are commonly used in longitudinal epidemiological studies to measure and track the forced expiratory volume in first second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC). During the course of the study, it may be necessary to replace spirometers with a different model. This raise questions regarding the comparability of measurements from different devices. We examined the correlation, mean differences and agreement between two different spirometers, across diverse populations and different participant characteristics.MethodsFrom June 2015 to Jan 2018, a total of 4,603 adults were enrolled from 628 communities in 18 countries and 7 regions of the world. Each participant performed concurrent measurements from the MicroGP and EasyOne spirometer. Measurements were compared by the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) and Bland-Altman method.ResultsApproximately 65% of the participants achieved clinically acceptable quality measurements. Overall correlations between paired FEV1 (ICC 0.88 [95% CI 0.87, 0.88]) and FVC (ICC 0.84 [0.83, 0.85]) were high. Mean differences between paired FEV1 (-0.038 L [-0.053, -0.023]) and FVC (0.033 L [0.012, 0.054]) were small. The 95% limits of agreement were wide but unbiased (FEV1 984, -1060; FVC 1460, -1394). Similar findings were observed across regions. The source of variation between spirometers was mainly at the participant level. Older age, higher body mass index, tobacco smoking and known COPD/asthma did not adversely impact on the inter-device variability. Furthermore, there were small and acceptable mean differences between paired FEV1 and FVC z-scores using the Global Lung Initiative normative values, suggesting minimal impact on lung function interpretation.ConclusionsIn this multicenter, diverse community-based cohort study, measurements from two portable spirometers provided good correlation, small and unbiased differences between measurements. These data support their interchangeable use across diverse populations to provide accurate trends in serial lung function measurements in epidemiological studies.

Abstract Background A declining trend in mean cholesterol levels and smoking has been observed in high-income western countries during the last few decades, whereas obesity rates have increased. Simultaneously, mortality from coronary heart disease has decreased. The aim of the present study was to determine whether the trends in cardiovascular risk factors have continued in successive cohorts of middle-aged women over a period of 34 years. Methods Six population-based, cross-sectional samples of women (n = 2294) mean age: 49.8 years (range: 45–54), living in Gothenburg, Sweden, were investigated between 1980 and 2014. Results Body mass index (BMI) increased over time, with a mean BMI of 24.7 kg/m2 in 1980 to 25.7 kg/m2 in 2013–2014, corresponding to a weight gain of 4.5 kg, together with an increase in the proportion of obese individuals (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) from 10.4 to 16.6% (p = 0.0012). The proportion of smokers and women with hypertension decreased from 34.5 to 12.8% (p = 0.0006) and from 37.7 to 24.5% (p

Abstract Aims This study aims to investigate the association of resting heart rate (RHR) measured in late adolescence with long‐term risk of cause‐specific heart failure (HF) and subtypes of cardiomyopathy (CM), with special attention to cardiorespiratory fitness. Methods and results We performed a nation‐wide, register‐based cohort study of all Swedish men enrolled for conscription in 1968–2005 (n = 1 008 363; mean age = 18.3 years). RHR and arterial blood pressure were measured together with anthropometrics as part of the enlistment protocol. HF and its concomitant diagnoses, as well as all CM diagnoses, were collected from the national inpatient, outpatient, and cause of death registries. Risk estimates were calculated by Cox‐proportional hazards models while adjusting for potential confounders. During follow‐up, there were 8400 cases of first hospitalization for HF and 3377 for CM. Comparing the first and fifth quintiles of the RHR distribution, the hazard ratio (HR) for HF associated with coronary heart disease, diabetes, or hypertension was 1.25 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.13–1.38] after adjustment for body mass index, blood pressure, and cardiorespiratory fitness. The corresponding HR was 1.43 (CI = 1.08–1.90) for HF associated with CM and 1.34 (CI = 1.16–1.54) for HF without concomitant diagnosis. There was an association between RHR and dilated CM [HR = 1.47 (CI = 1.27–1.71)] but not hypertrophic, alcohol/drug‐induced, or other cardiomyopathies. Conclusions Adolescent RHR is associated with future risk of HF, regardless of associated aetiological condition. The association was strongest for HF associated with CM, driven by the association with dilated CM. These findings indicate a causal pathway between elevated RHR and myocardial dysfunction that warrants further investigation.

Abstract Aims The aim of this study is to validate a diagnosis of heart failure (HF) according to the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines among patients hospitalized at Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden, between 2000 and 2012. Methods and results In Sweden, it is mandatory to report all hospital discharge diagnoses to the Swedish national inpatient register. In total, 27 517 patients were diagnosed with HF at the Sahlgrenska University hospital between 2000 and 2012. Altogether, 1100 records with a primary (n = 550) or contributory (n = 550) diagnosis of HF were randomly selected. The diagnosis was validated according to the ESC guidelines from 1995, 2001, 2005, and 2008, and cases were divided into three groups: definite, probable, and miscoded. In total, 965 cases were validated, while 135 records were excluded for various reasons. Of the 965 records, the diagnosis was validated as definite in 601 (62.3%) and as probable in 310 (32.1%); only 54 (5.6%) of cases had been miscoded. Echocardiography, as an objective evidence of cardiac dysfunction, had been performed in 581 (96.7%) of the definite, 106 (34.2%) of the probable, and 31 (57.4%) of the miscoded cases. Among the probable cases, the main reason they had not been classified as a definitive diagnosis of HF was lack of examination by echocardiography (63.8%). Conclusions The overall validity of HF diagnosis at Sahlgrenska University Hospital is high. This may reflect a high diagnostic validity at the time of diagnosis in the national Swedish patient register, supporting the continued use of this register in epidemiological research.

Abstract Background To examine the incidence of atrial fibrillation in individuals with type 2 diabetes compared with age- and sex-matched controls from the general population and its variation in relation to glycaemic control and renal function. Methods A total of 421,855 patients with type 2 diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Registry and 2,131,223 controls from the Swedish Population Registry, matched for age, sex and county, were included and followed from January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2013. Results Overall, 8.9% of individuals with type 2 diabetes and 7.0% of controls were diagnosed with atrial fibrillation during follow-up, unadjusted incidence risk ratio (IRR) 1.35 (95% 1.33–1.36). Women

Abstract Background Secondary prevention after an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) reduces morbidity and mortality, but suboptimal secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease is common. Therefore, the present study aimed to identify potential underlying factors for suboptimal secondary prevention 2 years after an AMI event. Methods Patients aged 18–85 years at the time of their index AMI and hospitalized between July 2010 and December 2011, were identified retrospectively and consecutively from hospital discharge records. All patients who agreed to participate underwent a structured interview, physical examinations and laboratory analysis 2 years after their index AMI. The secondary preventive goals included are; blood pressure

BackgroundSome earlier studies have found indications of significant changes in cardiometabolic risk factors in children born after assisted reproductive technology (ART). Most of these studies are based on small cohorts with high risk of selection bias. In this study, we compared the risk of cardiovascular disease, obesity, and type 2 diabetes between singleton children born after ART and singleton children born after spontaneous conception (SC).Methods and findingsThis was a large population-based cohort study of individuals born in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark between 1984 and 2015. Data were obtained from national ART and medical birth registers and cross-linked with data from national patient registers and other population-based registers in the respective countries. In total, 122,429 children born after ART and 7,574,685 children born after SC were included. Mean (SD) maternal age was 33.9 (4.3) years for ART and 29.7 (5.2) for SC, 67.7% versus 41.8% were primiparous, and 45.2% versus 32.1% had more than 12 years of education. Preterm birth (ConclusionsIn this study, we observed no difference in the risk of cardiovascular disease or type 2 diabetes between children born after ART and children born after SC. For obesity, there was a small but significant increased risk for children born after ART.Trial registration numberISRCTN11780826.

Background: Whether infection with SARS-CoV-2 leads to excess risk of requiring hospitalization or intensive care in persons with diabetes has not been reported, nor have risk factors in diabetes associated with increased risk for these outcomes. Methods: We included 44,639 and 411,976 adult patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes alive on Jan 1, 2020, and compared them to controls matched for age, sex, and county of residence (n=204,919 and 1,948,900). Age- and sex-standardized rates for COVID-19 related hospitalizations, admissions to intensive care and death, were estimated and hazard ratios were calculated using Cox regression analyses. Findings: There were 10,486 hospitalizations and 1,416 admissions into intensive care. A total of 1,175 patients with diabetes and 1,820 matched controls died from COVID-19, of these 53•2% had been hospitalized and 10•7% had been in intensive care. Patients with type 2 diabetes, compared to controls, displayed an age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 2•22, 95%CI 2•13-2•32) of being hospitalized for COVID-19, which decreased to HR 1•40, 95%CI 1•34-1•47) after further adjustment for sociodemographic factors, pharmacological treatment and comorbidities, had higher risk for admission to ICU due to COVID-19 (age- and sex-adjusted HR 2•49, 95%CI 2•22-2•79, decreasing to 1•42, 95%CI 1•25-1•62 after adjustment, and increased risk for death due to COVID-19 (age- and sex-adjusted HR 2•19, 95%CI 2•03-2•36, complete adjustment 1•50, 95%CI 1•39-1•63). Age- and sex-adjusted HR for COVID-19 hospitalization for type 1 diabetes was 2•10, 95%CI 1•72-2•57), decreasing to 1•25, 95%CI 0•3097-1•62) after adjustment• Patients with diabetes type 1 were twice as likely to require intensive care for COVID-19, however, not after adjustment (HR 1•49, 95%CI 0•75-2•92), and more likely to die (HR 2•90, 95% CI 1•6554-5•47) from COVID-19, but not independently of other factors (HR 1•38, 95% CI 0•64-2•99). Among patients with diabetes, elevated glycated hemoglobin levels were associated with higher risk for most outcomes. Interpretation: In this nationwide study, type 2 diabetes was independently associated with increased risk of hospitalization, admission to intensive care and death for COVID-19. There were few admissions into intensive care and deaths in type 1 diabetes, and although hazards were significantly raised for all three outcomes, there was no independent risk persisting after adjustment for confounding factors.

Objective To examine the association between social isolation and mortality and incident diseases in middle-aged adults in urban and rural communities from high-income, middle-income and low-income countries.Design Population-based prospective observational study.Setting Urban and rural communities in 20 high income, middle income and low income.Participants 119 894 community-dwelling middle-aged adults.Main outcome measures Associations of social isolation with mortality, cardiovascular death, non-cardiovascular death and incident diseases.Results Social isolation was more common in middle-income and high-income countries compared with low-income countries, in urban areas than rural areas, in older individuals and among women, those with less education and the unemployed. It was more frequent among smokers and those with a poorer diet. Social isolation was associated with greater risk of mortality (HR of 1.26, 95% CI: 1.17 to 1.36), incident stroke (HR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.40), cardiovascular disease (HR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.25) and pneumonia (HR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.37), but not cancer. The associations between social isolation and mortality were observed in populations in high-income, middle-income and low-income countries (HR (95% CI): 1.69 (1.32 to 2.17), 1.27 (1.15 to 1.40) and 1.47 (1.25 to 1.73), respectively, interaction p=0.02). The HR associated with social isolation was greater in men than women and in younger than older individuals. Mediation analyses for the association between social isolation and mortality showed that unhealthy behaviours and comorbidities may account for about one-fifth of the association.Conclusion Social isolation is associated with increased risk of mortality in countries at different economic levels. The increasing share of older people in populations in many countries argues for targeted strategies to mitigate its adverse effects.

We herein outline the rationale for a Swedish cohort consortium, aiming to facilitate greater use of Swedish cohorts for world-class research. Coordination of all Swedish prospective population-based cohorts in a common infrastructure would enable more precise research findings and facilitate research on rare exposures and outcomes, leading to better utilization of study participants’ data, better return of funders’ investments, and higher benefit to patients and populations. We motivate the proposed infrastructure partly by lessons learned from a pilot study encompassing data from 21 cohorts. We envisage a standing Swedish cohort consortium that would drive development of epidemiological research methods and strengthen the Swedish as well as international epidemiological competence, community, and competitiveness.

PurposeThe aim was to examine potential associations between psychosocial job exposures, evaluated with the Job Demand-Control-model, and presence of coronary artery calcium.MethodsWe performed a cross-sectional study using the Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study,(SCAPIS)pilot study. Coronary artery calcium was assessed through computed tomography of the coronary arteries and with coronary artery scoring, CACS. Main outcome was CACS ≥100 compared to CACS 0. Job demand and control was analysed according to the standard categorization of the two variables into: high strain, active, passive and low strain (reference). Associations between these variables and CACS were calculated with prevalence ratios (PR) using Cox regression with robust variance, 95% confidence intervals (CI) and adjusted for age, smoking, education, socioeconomic area and metabolic syndrome.ResultsIn total 777 participants were used in our analyses, for which 20% of the men and 5% of the women had CACS ≥100, respectively. The PR of having CACS ≥100 was non-significantly elevated for men in high strain jobs 1.54 (95% CI 0.88-2.69) and in active jobs 1.67 (95% CI 0.92-3.06), adjusted for covariates. For women there was no association between exposure to high strain and having CACS ≥100 PR 1.02 (95% CI 0.24-4.31). Among women reporting passive job, the PR was non-significantly elevated, 2.40 (95% CI 0.83-6.92), adjusted for covariates.ConclusionThe statistical power of the study was limited, but our results suggests the possibility that exposure to a high strain or an active job situation may increase the risk of CACS in men, while in women, it may rather be exposure to passive job.

Background Despite advances in pediatric health care over recent decades, it is not clear whether survival in children with congenital heart disease (CHD) is still increasing. Methods and Results We identified all patients with CHD using nationwide Swedish health registries for 1980 to 2017. We examined the survival trends in children with CHD; we investigated the mortality risk in patients with CHD compared with matched controls without CHD from the general population using Cox proportional regression models and Kaplan–Meier survival analysis. Among 64 396 patients with CHD and 639 012 matched controls without CHD, 3845 (6.0%) and 2235 (0.3%) died, respectively. The mean study follow‐up (SD) was 11.4 (6.3) years in patients with CHD. The mortality risk was 17.7 (95% CI, 16.8–18.6) times higher in children with CHD compared with controls. The highest mortality risk was found during the first 4 years of life in patients with CHD (hazard ratio [HR], 19.6; 95% CI, 18.5–20.7). When stratified by lesion group, patients with non‐conotruncal defects had the highest risk (HR, 97.2; 95% CI, 80.4–117.4). Survival increased substantially according to birth decades, but with no improvement after the turn of the century where survivorship reached 97% in children with CHD born in 2010 to 2017. Conclusions Survival in children with CHD has increased substantially since the 1980s; however, no significant improvement has been observed this century. Currently, >97% of children with CHD can be expected to reach adulthood highlighting the need of life‐time management.

Summary: Background: Most studies of long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2·5) and cardiovascular disease are from high-income countries with relatively low PM2·5 concentrations. It is unclear whether risks are similar in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) and how outdoor PM2·5 contributes to the global burden of cardiovascular disease. In our analysis of the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, we aimed to investigate the association between long-term exposure to PM2·5 concentrations and cardiovascular disease in a large cohort of adults from 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries. Methods: In this multinational, prospective cohort study, we studied 157 436 adults aged 35–70 years who were enrolled in the PURE study in countries with ambient PM2·5 estimates, for whom follow-up data were available. Cox proportional hazard frailty models were used to estimate the associations between long-term mean community outdoor PM2·5 concentrations and cardiovascular disease events (fatal and non-fatal), cardiovascular disease mortality, and other non-accidental mortality. Findings: Between Jan 1, 2003, and July 14, 2018, 157 436 adults from 747 communities in 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries were enrolled and followed up, of whom 140 020 participants resided in LMICs. During a median follow-up period of 9·3 years (IQR 7·8–10·8; corresponding to 1·4 million person-years), we documented 9996 non-accidental deaths, of which 3219 were attributed to cardiovascular disease. 9152 (5·8%) of 157 436 participants had cardiovascular disease events (fatal and non-fatal incident cardiovascular disease), including 4083 myocardial infarctions and 4139 strokes. Mean 3-year PM2·5 at cohort baseline was 47·5 μg/m3 (range 6–140). In models adjusted for individual, household, and geographical factors, a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2·5 was associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease events (hazard ratio 1·05 [95% CI 1·03–1·07]), myocardial infarction (1·03 [1·00–1·05]), stroke (1·07 [1·04–1·10]), and cardiovascular disease mortality (1·03 [1·00–1·05]). Results were similar for LMICs and communities with high PM2·5 concentrations (>35 μg/m3). The population attributable fraction for PM2·5 in the PURE cohort was 13·9% (95% CI 8·8–18·6) for cardiovascular disease events, 8·4% (0·0–15·4) for myocardial infarction, 19·6% (13·0–25·8) for stroke, and 8·3% (0·0–15·2) for cardiovascular disease mortality. We identified no consistent associations between PM2·5 and risk for non-cardiovascular disease deaths. Interpretation: Long-term outdoor PM2·5 concentrations were associated with increased risks of cardiovascular disease in adults aged 35–70 years. Air pollution is an important global risk factor for cardiovascular disease and a need exists to reduce air pollution concentrations, especially in LMICs, where air pollution levels are highest. Funding: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death globally. In 2014, the United Nations committed to reducing premature mortality from NCDs, including by reducing the burden of healthcare costs. Since 2014, the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) Study has been collecting health expenditure data from households with NCDs in 18 countries.Methods Using data from the PURE Study, we estimated risk of catastrophic health spending and impoverishment among households with at least one person with NCDs (cardiovascular disease, diabetes, kidney disease, cancer and respiratory diseases; n=17 435), with hypertension only (a leading risk factor for NCDs; n=11 831) or with neither (n=22 654) by country income group: high-income countries (Canada and Sweden), upper middle income countries (UMICs: Brazil, Chile, Malaysia, Poland, South Africa and Turkey), lower middle income countries (LMICs: the Philippines, Colombia, India, Iran and the Occupied Palestinian Territory) and low-income countries (LICs: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Zimbabwe and Tanzania) and China.Results The prevalence of catastrophic spending and impoverishment is highest among households with NCDs in LMICs and China. After adjusting for covariates that might drive health expenditure, the absolute risk of catastrophic spending is higher in households with NCDs compared with no NCDs in LMICs (risk difference=1.71%; 95% CI 0.75 to 2.67), UMICs (0.82%; 95% CI 0.37 to 1.27) and China (7.52%; 95% CI 5.88 to 9.16). A similar pattern is observed in UMICs and China for impoverishment. A high proportion of those with NCDs in LICs, especially women (38.7% compared with 12.6% in men), reported not taking medication due to costs.Conclusions Our findings show that financial protection from healthcare costs for people with NCDs is inadequate, particularly in LMICs and China. While the burden of NCD care may appear greatest in LMICs and China, the burden in LICs may be masked by care foregone due to costs. The high proportion of women reporting foregone care due to cost may in part explain gender inequality in treatment of NCDs.

Background Body mass index (BMI) may be a stronger risk factor for heart failure than for coronary heart disease in type 2 diabetes mellitus, but prior studies have not been powered to investigate the relative and absolute risks for acute myocardial infarction and heart failure in type 2 diabetes mellitus by BMI and glycemic level combined as compared with age‐ and sex‐matched general population comparators. Methods and Results We identified 181 045 patients from The Swedish National Diabetes Registry, registered during 1998 to 2012 and 1538 434 general population comparators without diabetes mellitus, matched for age, sex, and county, all without prior major cardiovascular disease. Cases and comparators were followed with respect to the outcomes through linkage to the Swedish Inpatient Registry. Over a median follow‐up time of 5.7 years, there were 28 855 acute myocardial infarction and 33 060 heart failure cases among patients and comparators. Excess risk (above that of comparators in whom no data on hemoglobin A1c and BMI was available), incidence rates and hazard ratios for heart failure were substantially higher among the obese patients compared with those with low BMI, where very obese patients (BMI ≥40 kg/m2) who also had poor glycemic control, suffered a 7‐fold risk of heart failure versus comparators (reference level). By contrast, for acute myocardial infarction, the highest absolute and relative risks were found among patients with poor glycemic control, with no additional risk conferred by increasing BMI. Conclusions BMI is a strong independent risk factor for heart failure but not for acute myocardial infarction among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Summary: Background: To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods: In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40–80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings: Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629–0·741) to 0·833 (0·783–0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40–64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation: We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Funding: World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research.

Living in a low socioeconomic status (SES) area is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. Previous studies have suggested a socioeconomic gradient in daily physical activity (PA), but have mainly relied on self-reported data, and individual rather than residential area SES. This study aimed to investigate the relationships between residential area SES, PA pattern, compliance with PA-recommendations and fitness in a Swedish middle-aged population, using objective measurements. We included 948 individuals from the SCAPIS pilot study (Gothenburg, Sweden, 2012, stratified for SES, 49% women, median age: 58 years), in three low and three high SES districts. Accelerometer data were summarized into intensity-specific categories: sedentary (SED), low (LIPA), and medium-to-vigorous PA (MVPA). Fitness was estimated by submaximal ergometer testing. Participants of low SES areas had a more adverse cardiovascular disease risk factor profile (smoking: 20% vs. 6%; diabetes: 9% vs. 3%; hypertension: 38% vs. 25%; obesity: 31% vs. 13%), and less frequently reached 150 min of MVPA per week (67% vs. 77%, odds ratio [OR] = 0.61; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.46–0.82), from 10-minute bouts (19% vs. 31%, OR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.39–0.72). Individuals in low SES areas showed lower PA levels (mean cpm: 320 vs. 348) and daily average MVPA (29.9 vs. 35.5 min), and 12% lower fitness (25.1 vs. 28.5 mL × min−1 × kg−1) than did those in high SES areas. Reduced PA and fitness levels may contribute to social inequalities in health, and should be a target for improved public health in low SES areas. Keywords: Motor activity, Physical fitness, Social class

Summary: Background: Socioeconomic status is associated with differences in risk factors for cardiovascular disease incidence and outcomes, including mortality. However, it is unclear whether the associations between cardiovascular disease and common measures of socioeconomic status—wealth and education—differ among high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries, and, if so, why these differences exist. We explored the association between education and household wealth and cardiovascular disease and mortality to assess which marker is the stronger predictor of outcomes, and examined whether any differences in cardiovascular disease by socioeconomic status parallel differences in risk factor levels or differences in management. Methods: In this large-scale prospective cohort study, we recruited adults aged between 35 years and 70 years from 367 urban and 302 rural communities in 20 countries. We collected data on families and households in two questionnaires, and data on cardiovascular risk factors in a third questionnaire, which was supplemented with physical examination. We assessed socioeconomic status using education and a household wealth index. Education was categorised as no or primary school education only, secondary school education, or higher education, defined as completion of trade school, college, or university. Household wealth, calculated at the household level and with household data, was defined by an index on the basis of ownership of assets and housing characteristics. Primary outcomes were major cardiovascular disease (a composite of cardiovascular deaths, strokes, myocardial infarction, and heart failure), cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Information on specific events was obtained from participants or their family. Findings: Recruitment to the study began on Jan 12, 2001, with most participants enrolled between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2014. 160 299 (87·9%) of 182 375 participants with baseline data had available follow-up event data and were eligible for inclusion. After exclusion of 6130 (3·8%) participants without complete baseline or follow-up data, 154 169 individuals remained for analysis, from five low-income, 11 middle-income, and four high-income countries. Participants were followed-up for a mean of 7·5 years. Major cardiovascular events were more common among those with low levels of education in all types of country studied, but much more so in low-income countries. After adjustment for wealth and other factors, the HR (low level of education vs high level of education) was 1·23 (95% CI 0·96–1·58) for high-income countries, 1·59 (1·42–1·78) in middle-income countries, and 2·23 (1·79–2·77) in low-income countries (pinteraction

Summary: Background: The associations between the extent of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) impairment and mortality, incident cardiovascular disease, and respiratory hospitalisations are unclear, and how these associations might vary across populations is unknown. Methods: In this international, community-based cohort study, we prospectively enrolled adults aged 35–70 years who had no intention of moving residences for 4 years from rural and urban communities across 17 countries. A portable spirometer was used to assess FEV1. FEV1 values were standardised within countries for height, age, and sex, and expressed as a percentage of the country-specific predicted FEV1 value (FEV1%). FEV1% was categorised as no impairment (FEV1% ≥0 SD from country-specific mean), mild impairment (FEV1%