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Recent studies have suggested that the Atlantic water pathway connecting the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) with the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean may lead to skillful predictions of sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies in the eastern Nordic Seas. To investigate the role of the SPNA for such anomalies downstream, we designed a pacemaker experiment, using two decadal climate prediction systems based on EC-Earth3 and NorCPM. We focus on the subpolar extreme cold anomaly in 2015 and its subsequent development, a feature not well captured and predicted. The pacemaker experiment follows the protocol of the CMIP6 DCPP-A retrospective forecasts or hindcasts initialized November 1, 2014, but the models are forced to follow the observed ocean temperature and salinity anomalies in the SPNA from ocean reanalysis from November 2014 through to December 2019. Two sets of 10-year hindcasts are performed with 10 members for EC-Earth3 and 30 members for NorCPM. We here detail and discuss the design of this pacemaker experiment and present results, comparing with the initialized CMIP6 DCPP-A experiment assessing differences in decadal prediction skill outside the SPNA. We conclude that the pacemaker experiments show improved skill compared to the standard decadal predictions for the eastern Norwegian Sea, and therefore the SPNA is key for successful decadal predictions in the region.

Despite several studies on decadal-scale solar influence on climate, a systematic analysis of the Sun's contribution to decadal surface climate predictability is still missing. Here, we disentangle the solar-cycle-induced climate response from internal variability and from other external forcings such as greenhouse gases. We utilize two 10-member ensemble simulations with a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model, to date a unique dataset in chemistry–climate modeling. Using these model simulations, we quantify the potential predictability related to the solar cycle and demonstrate that the detectability of the solar influence on surface climate depends on the magnitude of the solar cycle. Further, we show that a strong solar cycle forcing organizes and synchronizes the decadal-scale component of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the dominant mode of climate variability in the North Atlantic region.

The growth of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events is determined by the balance between ocean dynamics and thermodynamics. Here we quantify the contribution of the thermodynamic feedbacks to the sea surface temperature (SST) change during ENSO growth phase by integrating the atmospheric heat fluxes over the temporarily and spatially varying mixed layer to derive an offline “slab ocean” SST. The SST change due to ocean dynamics is estimated as the residual with respect to the total SST change. In observations, 1 K SST change in the Niño3.4 region is composed of an ocean dynamical SST forcing of + 2.6 K and a thermodynamic damping of − 1.6 K, the latter mainly by the shortwave-SST (− 0.9 K) and latent heat flux-SST feedback (− 0.7 K). Most climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) underestimate the SST change due to both ocean dynamics and net surface heat fluxes, revealing an error compensation between a too weak forcing by ocean dynamics and a too weak damping by atmospheric heat fluxes. In half of the CMIP5 models investigated in this study, the shortwave-SST feedback erroneously acts as an amplifying feedback over the eastern equatorial Pacific, resulting in a hybrid of ocean-driven and shortwave-driven ENSO dynamics. Further, the phase locking and asymmetry of ENSO is investigated in the CMIP5 model ensemble. The climate models with stronger atmospheric feedbacks tend to simulate a more realistic seasonality and asymmetry of the heat flux feedbacks, and they exhibit more realistic phase locking and asymmetry of ENSO. Moreover, the almost linear latent heat flux feedback contributes to ENSO asymmetry in the far eastern equatorial Pacific through an asymmetry in the mixed layer depth. This study suggests that the dynamic and thermodynamic ENSO feedbacks and their seasonality and asymmetries are important metrics to consider for improving ENSO representation in climate models.

Climate models usually can not afford to include an interactive ice sheet component for Greenland, which leads to a wrong representation of the variability of the freshwater fluxes released from the Greenland ice melt into the North Atlantic. We propose here to force externally a climate model (EC-Earth3) over several decades (1920-2014) with an observational dataset of runoff and solid ice discharge values for Greenland and surrounding glaciers and ice caps. It has been shown in a similar study with the IPSL-CM6-LR model that an enhancement of freshwater can modify the circulation and the convection in this region. The simulated mixed layer depths in the Nordic seas and the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation will be investigated to assess the impact of these increasing freshwater fluxes on the oceanic circulation over the period. The response in salinity and stratification in the Arctic will also be analysed as well as the ability for the system to capture abrupt changes like the 1995 warming in the subpolar gyre.

Despite several studies on decadal-scale solar influence on climate, a systematic detection of solar-induced signals at the surface and the Sun's contribution to decadal climate predictability is still missing. Here, we disentangle the solar-cycle-induced climate response from internal variability and from other external forcings such as greenhouse gases. We utilize two 10-member ensemble simulations with a state-of-the-art chemistry climate model, to date a unique data set in chemistry climate modelling. We quantify the potential predictability related to the solar cycle and demonstrate that the detectability of the solar influence on surface climate depends on the magnitude of the solar cycle. Further, we show that a strong solar cycle forcing organizes and synchronizes the decadal-scale component of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the dominant mode of climate variability in the North Atlantic region.

Current sustainability challenges demand approaches that acknowledge a plurality of human–nature interactions and worldviews, for which biocultural approaches are considered appropriate and timely. This systematic review analyses the application of biocultural approaches to sustainability in scientific journal articles published between 1990 and 2018 through a mixed methods approach combining qualitative content analysis and quantitative multivariate methods. The study identifies seven distinct biocultural lenses, that is, different ways of understanding and applying biocultural approaches, which to different degrees consider the key aspects of sustainability science—inter‐ and transdisciplinarity, social justice and normativity. The review suggests that biocultural approaches in sustainability science need to move from describing how nature and culture are co‐produced to co‐producing knowledge for sustainability solutions, and in so doing, better account for questions of power, gender and transformations, which has been largely neglected thus far. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

A new Earth system model, the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure (FOCI), is introduced. A first version of FOCI consists of a global high-top atmosphere (European Centre Hamburg general circulation model; ECHAM6.3) and an ocean model (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean v3.6; NEMO3.6) as well as sea-ice (Louvain-la-Neuve sea Ice Model version 2; LIM2) and land surface model components (Jena Scheme for Biosphere Atmosphere Coupling in Hamburg; JSBACH), which are coupled through the OASIS3-MCT software package. FOCI includes a number of optional modules which can be activated depending on the scientific question of interest. In the atmosphere, interactive stratospheric chemistry can be used (ECHAM6-HAMMOZ) to study, for example, the effects of the ozone hole on the climate system. In the ocean, a biogeochemistry model (Model of Oceanic Pelagic Stoichiometry; MOPS) is available to study the global carbon cycle. A unique feature of FOCI is the ability to explicitly resolve mesoscale ocean eddies in specific regions. This is realized in the ocean through nesting; first examples for the Agulhas Current and the Gulf Stream systems are described here. FOCI therefore bridges the gap between coarse-resolution climate models and global high-resolution weather prediction and ocean-only models. It allows to study the evolution of the climate system on regional and seasonal to (multi)decadal scales. The development of FOCI resulted from a combination of the long-standing expertise in ocean and climate modeling in several research units and divisions at the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR). FOCI will thus be used to complement and interpret long-term observations in the Atlantic, enhance the process understanding of the role of mesoscale oceanic eddies for large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns, study feedback mechanisms with stratospheric processes, estimate future ocean acidification, and improve the simulation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation changes and their influence on climate, ocean chemistry and biology. In this paper, we present both the scientific vision for the development of FOCI as well as some technical details. This includes a first validation of the different model components using several configurations of FOCI. Results show that the model in its basic configuration runs stably under pre-industrial control as well as under historical forcing and produces a mean climate and variability which compares well with observations, reanalysis products and other climate models. The nested configurations reduce some long-standing biases in climate models and are an important step forward to include the atmospheric response in multidecadal eddy-rich configurations. © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.

Highlights: • Mid-Atlantic vent mussel populations are contemporarily isolated • Population connectivity can only be maintained in a stepwise manner • Four mussel lineages exist on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge • Recolonization of perturbed vent localities is uncertain Summary: Deep-sea hydrothermal vents are patchily distributed ecosystems inhabited by specialized animal populations that are textbook meta-populations. Many vent-associated species have free-swimming, dispersive larvae that can establish connections between remote populations. However, connectivity patterns among hydrothermal vents are still poorly understood because the deep sea is undersampled, the molecular tools used to date are of limited resolution, and larval dispersal is difficult to measure directly. A better knowledge of connectivity is urgently needed to develop sound environmental management plans for deep-sea mining. Here, we investigated larval dispersal and contemporary connectivity of ecologically important vent mussels (Bathymodiolus spp.) from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge by using high-resolution ocean modeling and population genetic methods. Even when assuming a long pelagic larval duration, our physical model of larval drift suggested that arrival at localities more than 150 km from the source site is unlikely and that dispersal between populations requires intermediate habitats (“phantom” stepping stones). Dispersal patterns showed strong spatiotemporal variability, making predictions of population connectivity challenging. The assumption that mussel populations are only connected via additional stepping stones was supported by contemporary migration rates based on neutral genetic markers. Analyses of population structure confirmed the presence of two southern and two hybridizing northern mussel lineages that exhibited a substantial, though incomplete, genetic differentiation. Our study provides insights into how vent animals can disperse between widely separated vent habitats and shows that recolonization of perturbed vent sites will be subject to chance events, unless connectivity is explicitly considered in the selection of conservation areas.

We examine the simulated Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) in a model that includes a correction for a longstanding problem with climate models, namely the misplacement of the North Atlantic Current. The corrected model shows that in the warm AMV phase, heat is lost by the ocean in the northwestern part of the basin and gained by the ocean to the east, suggesting an advective transfer of heat by the mid-latitude westerlies. The basin wide response is consistent with a role for cloud feedback and is in broad agreement with estimates from observations, but is poorly represented in the uncorrected model. The corrected model is then used to show that the ocean/atmosphere heat transfer is influenced by low frequency variability in the overlying atmosphere. We also argue that changing ocean heat transport is an essential feature of our results.

The North Atlantic cold bias, associated with the misplacement of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and typically extending from the surface to 1000 m depth, is a common problem in coupled models that compromises model fidelity. We investigate the use of a flow field correction (FFC) to adjust the path of the NAC and alleviate the cold bias. The FFC consists of three steps. First, climatological potential temperature (T) and salinity (S) fields for use with the model are produced using a three-dimensional restoring technique. Second, these T, S fields are used to modify the momentum equations of the ocean model. In the third stage, the correction term is diagnosed to construct a flow-independent correction. Results using the Kiel Climate Model show that the FFC allows the establishment of a northwest corner, substantially alleviating the subsurface cold bias. A cold bias remains at the surface but can be eliminated by additionally correcting the surface freshwater flux, without adjusting the surface heat flux seen by the ocean model. A model version in which only the surface fluxes of heat and freshwater are corrected continues to exhibit the incorrect path of the NAC and a strong subsurface bias. We also show that the bias in the atmospheric circulation is reduced in some corrected model versions. The FFC can be regarded as a way to correct for model error, e.g. associated with the deep water mass pathways and their impact on the large-scale ocean circulation, and unresolved processes such as eddy momentum flux convergence.