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Abstract Background The spread of mosquito-transmitted diseases such as dengue is a major public health issue worldwide. The Aedes aegypti mosquito, a primary vector for dengue, thrives in urban environments and breeds mainly in artificial or natural water containers. While the relationship between urban landscapes and potential breeding sites remains poorly understood, such a knowledge could help mitigate the risks associated with these diseases. This study aimed to analyze the relationships between urban landscape characteristics and potential breeding site abundance and type in cities of French Guiana (South America), and to evaluate the potential of such variables to be used in predictive models. Methods We use Multifactorial Analysis to explore the relationship between urban landscape characteristics derived from very high resolution satellite imagery, and potential breeding sites recorded from in-situ surveys. We then applied Random Forest models with different sets of urban variables to predict the number of potential breeding sites where entomological data are not available. Results Landscape analyses applied to satellite images showed that urban types can be clearly identified using texture indices. The Multiple Factor Analysis helped identify variables related to the distribution of potential breeding sites, such as buildings class area, landscape shape index, building number, and the first component of texture indices. Models predicting the number of potential breeding sites using the entire dataset provided an R² of 0.90, possibly influenced by overfitting, but allowing the prediction over all the study sites. Predictions of potential breeding sites varied highly depending on their type, with better results on breeding sites types commonly found in urban landscapes, such as containers of less than 200 L, large volumes and barrels. The study also outlined the limitation offered by the entomological data, whose sampling was not specifically designed for this study. Model outputs could be used as input to a mosquito dynamics model when no accurate field data are available. Conclusion This study offers a first use of routinely collected data on potential breeding sites in a research study. It highlights the potential benefits of including satellite-based characterizations of the urban environment to improve vector control strategies.

Acacia mearnsii, an invasive alien species, is the main resource identified for the energy transition initiated on Reunion Island. It is, therefore, critical to identify the existent forest stands within the island’s large tropical forest area and to determine which of these stands are accessible for logging operations. In this study, a very high-spatial-resolution image was used to map forest (Acacia mearnsii, Acacia heterophylla, Cryptomeria japonica) and non-forest land cover. To identify the accessible forest stands, we developed a geographic information system (GIS) processing chain, accounting for barriers, the distribution of slopes, and the location of forest roads. User-defined parameters, such as the slope threshold and maximal distance to forest roads, allow different scenarios to be explored. The classification yields an overall accuracy of 88% and a Kappa index of 0.86 and highlights the areas occupied by the different types of Acacia. By applying the GIS processing chain for a standard scenario, the results show that only 19% of the initial study area of 637 ha of Acacia mearnsii patches is suitable for exploitation. In conclusion, our results demonstrate how remote sensing (RS) and GIS can be combined to provide valuable tools for forest managers to design management plans for invasive alien forest species.

BackgroundDengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease. It is endemic in many tropical and subtropical countries and represents a significant global health burden. The first reports of dengue virus (DENV) circulation in the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) islands date back to the early 1940s; however, an increase in DENV circulation has been reported in the SWIO in recent years. The aim of this review is to trace the history of DENV in the SWIO islands using available records from the Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mayotte, Seychelles, and Reunion. We focus in particular on the most extensive data from Reunion Island, highlighting factors that may explain the observed increasing incidence, and the potential shift from one-off outbreaks to endemic dengue transmission.MethodsFollowing the PRISMA guidelines, the literature review focused queried different databases using the keywords "dengue" or "Aedes albopictus" combined with each of the following SWIO islands the Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mayotte, Seychelles, and Reunion. We also compiled case report data for dengue in Mayotte and Reunion in collaboration with the regional public health agencies in these French territories. References and data were discarded when original sources were not identified. We examined reports of climatic, anthropogenic, and mosquito-related factors that may influence the maintenance of dengue transmission independently of case importation linked to travel.Findings and conclusionsThe first report of dengue circulation in the SWIO was documented in 1943 in the Comoros. Then not until an outbreak in 1976 to 1977 that affected approximately 80% of the population of the Seychelles. DENV was also reported in 1977 to 1978 in Reunion with an estimate of nearly 30% of the population infected. In the following 40-year period, DENV circulation was qualified as interepidemic with sporadic cases. However, in recent years, the region has experienced uninterrupted DENV transmission at elevated incidence. Since 2017, Reunion witnessed the cocirculation of 3 serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2 and DENV-3) and an increased number of cases with severe forms and deaths. Reinforced molecular and serological identification of DENV serotypes and genotypes circulating in the SWIO as well as vector control strategies is necessary to protect exposed human populations and limit the spread of dengue.

Abstract Background Reunion Island regularly faces outbreaks of bluetongue and epizootic hemorrhagic diseases, two insect-borne orbiviral diseases of ruminants. Hematophagous midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are the vectors of bluetongue (BTV) and epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHDV) viruses. In a previous study, statistical models based on environmental and meteorological data were developed for the five Culicoides species present in the island to provide a better understanding of their ecology and predict their presence and abundance. The purpose of this study was to couple these statistical models with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to produce dynamic maps of the distribution of Culicoides throughout the island. Methods Based on meteorological data from ground weather stations and satellite-derived environmental data, the abundance of each of the five Culicoides species was estimated for the 2214 husbandry locations on the island for the period ranging from February 2016 to June 2018. A large-scale Culicoides sampling campaign including 100 farms was carried out in March 2018 to validate the model. Results According to the model predictions, no husbandry location was free of Culicoides throughout the study period. The five Culicoides species were present on average in 57.0% of the husbandry locations for C. bolitinos Meiswinkel, 40.7% for C. enderleini Cornet & Brunhes, 26.5% for C. grahamii Austen, 87.1% for C. imicola Kieffer and 91.8% for C. kibatiensis Goetghebuer. The models also showed high seasonal variations in their distribution. During the validation process, predictions were acceptable for C. bolitinos, C. enderleini and C. kibatiensis, with normalized root mean square errors (NRMSE) of 15.4%, 13.6% and 16.5%, respectively. The NRMSE was 27.4% for C. grahamii. For C. imicola, the NRMSE was acceptable (11.9%) considering all husbandry locations except in two specific areas, the Cirque de Salazie—an inner mountainous part of the island—and the sea edge, where the model overestimated its abundance. Conclusions Our model provides, for the first time to our knowledge, an operational tool to better understand and predict the distribution of Culicoides in Reunion Island. As it predicts a wide spatial distribution of the five Culicoides species throughout the year and taking into consideration their vector competence, our results suggest that BTV and EHDV can circulate continuously on the island. As further actions, our model could be coupled with an epidemiological model of BTV and EHDV transmission to improve risk assessment of Culicoides-borne diseases on the island. Graphic Abstract

Abstract The expansion of mosquito species worldwide is creating a powerful network for the spread of arboviruses. In addition to the destruction of breeding sites (prevention) and mass trapping, methods based on the sterile insect technique (SIT), the autodissemination of pyriproxyfen (ADT), and a fusion of elements from both of these known as boosted SIT (BSIT), are being developed to meet the urgent need for effective vector control. However, the comparative potential of these methods has yet to be explored in different environments. This is needed to propose and integrate informed guidelines into sustainable mosquito management plans. We extended a weather-dependent model of Aedes albopictus population dynamics to assess the effectiveness of these different vector control methods, alone or in combination, in a tropical (Reunion island, southwest Indian Ocean) and a temperate (Montpellier area, southern France) climate. Our results confirm the potential efficiency of SIT in temperate climates when performed early in the year (mid-March for northern hemisphere). In such a climate, the timing of the vector control action was the key factor in its success. In tropical climates, the potential of the combination of methods becomes more relevant. BSIT and the combination of ADT with SIT were twice as effective compared to the use of SIT alone.

Abstract Background Improved understanding of the foraging ecology of bats in the face of ongoing habitat loss and modification worldwide is essential to their conservation and maintaining the substantial ecosystem services they provide. It is also fundamental to assessing potential transmission risks of zoonotic pathogens in human-wildlife interfaces. We evaluated the influence of environmental and behavioral variables on the foraging patterns of Pteropus lylei (a reservoir of Nipah virus) in a heterogeneous landscape in Cambodia. Methods We employed an approach based on animal-movement modeling, which comprised a path-segmentation method (hidden Markov model) to identify individual foraging-behavior sequences in GPS data generated by eight P. lylei. We characterized foraging localities, foraging activity, and probability of returning to a given foraging locality over consecutive nights. Generalized linear mixed models were also applied to assess the influence of several variables including proxies for energetic costs and quality of foraging areas. Results Bats performed few foraging bouts (area-restricted searches) during a given night, mainly in residential areas, and the duration of these decreased during the night. The probability of a bat revisiting a given foraging area within 48 h varied according to the duration previously spent there, its distance to the roost site, and the corresponding habitat type. We interpret these fine-scale patterns in relation to global habitat quality (including food-resource quality and predictability), habitat-familiarity and experience of each individual. Conclusions Our study provides evidence that heterogeneous human-made environments may promote complex patterns of foraging-behavior and short-term re-visitation in fruit bat species that occur in such landscapes. This highlights the need for similarly detailed studies to understand the processes that maintain biodiversity in these environments and assess the potential for pathogen transmission in human-wildlife interfaces.

Abstract Background Reunion Island regularly faces outbreaks of epizootic haemorrhagic disease (EHD) and bluetongue (BT), two viral diseases transmitted by haematophagous midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) to ruminants. To date, five species of Culicoides are recorded in Reunion Island in which the first two are proven vector species: Culicoides bolitinos, C. imicola, C. enderleini, C. grahamii and C. kibatiensis. Meteorological and environmental factors can severely constrain Culicoides populations and activities and thereby affect dispersion and intensity of transmission of Culicoides-borne viruses. The aim of this study was to describe and predict the temporal dynamics of all Culicoides species present in Reunion Island. Methods Between 2016 and 2018, 55 biweekly Culicoides catches using Onderstepoort Veterinary Institute traps were set up in 11 sites. A hurdle model (i.e. a presence/absence model combined with an abundance model) was developed for each species in order to determine meteorological and environmental drivers of presence and abundance of Culicoides. Results Abundance displayed very strong heterogeneity between sites. Average Culicoides catch per site per night ranged from 4 to 45,875 individuals. Culicoides imicola was dominant at low altitude and C. kibatiensis at high altitude. A marked seasonality was observed for the three other species with annual variations. Twelve groups of variables were tested. It was found that presence and/or abundance of all five Culicoides species were driven by common parameters: rain, temperature, vegetation index, forested environment and host density. Other parameters such as wind speed and farm building opening size governed abundance level of some species. In addition, Culicoides populations were also affected by meteorological parameters and/or vegetation index with different lags of time, suggesting an impact on immature stages. Taking into account all the parameters for the final hurdle model, the error rate by Normalized Root mean Square Error ranged from 4.4 to 8.5%. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first study to model Culicoides population dynamics in Reunion Island. In the absence of vaccination and vector control strategies, determining periods of high abundance of Culicoides is a crucial first step towards identifying periods at high risk of transmission for the two economically important viruses they transmit.

We developed a method to produce time-varying maps for dengue transmission risk, using the Ross-Macdonald framework and differential equations to estimate spatially the basic reproduction number (R0) of a vector-borne disease. The components of the R0 formula were derived partly from a mosquito population dynamics model integrating meteorological and environmental variables, and partly from temperature-dependent functions of vector competence and the extrinsic incubation period. The method was applied on Reunion Island, a tropical island located in the Indian Ocean, where the mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus has been responsible for large and numerous outbreaks of dengue. As a validation, predicted maps and dynamic outputs were compared with the distribution of confirmed dengue cases registered during the year 2018 in Reunion Island. The results highlight strong agreements between the observed epidemiological patterns and predicted R0 distribution and temporal dynamics. This finding demonstrates the relevance and efficiency of the spatialised basic reproduction number (R0) to develop an operational dynamic mapping tool for dengue surveillance and control. The resulting method could be of great use in a health policy-making context, providing a time and space awareness to the dengue risk perception.

The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission cycle and a lack of epidemiological data make mapping areas at risk of the disease challenging. We used a Geographic Information System-based multicriteria evaluation (GIS-MCE), a knowledge-based approach, to identify areas suitable for Ebola virus spillover to humans in regions of Guinea, Congo and Gabon where Ebola viruses already emerged. We identified environmental, climatic and anthropogenic risk factors and potential hosts from a literature review. Geographical data layers, representing risk factors, were combined to produce suitability maps of Ebola virus spillover at the landscape scale. Our maps show high spatial and temporal variability in the suitability for Ebola virus spillover at a fine regional scale. Reported spillover events fell in areas of intermediate to high suitability in our maps, and a sensitivity analysis showed that the maps produced were robust. There are still important gaps in our knowledge about what factors are associated with the risk of Ebola virus spillover. As more information becomes available, maps produced using the GIS-MCE approach can be easily updated to improve surveillance and the prevention of future outbreaks.

Murine typhus is a flea-borne zoonotic disease that has been recently reported on Reunion Island, an oceanic volcanic island located in the Indian Ocean. Five years of survey implemented by the regional public health services have highlighted a strong temporal and spatial structure of the disease in humans, with cases mainly reported during the humid season and restricted to the dry southern and western portions of the island. We explored the environmental component of this zoonosis in an attempt to decipher the drivers of disease transmission. To do so, we used data from a previously published study (599 small mammals and 175 Xenopsylla fleas from 29 sampling sites) in order to model the spatial distribution of rat fleas throughout the island. In addition, we carried out a longitudinal sampling of rats and their ectoparasites over a 12 months period in six study sites (564 rats and 496 Xenopsylla fleas) in order to model the temporal dynamics of flea infestation of rats. Generalized Linear Models and Support Vector Machine classifiers were developed to model the Xenopsylla Genus Flea Index (GFI) from climatic and environmental variables. Results showed that the spatial distribution and the temporal dynamics of fleas, estimated through the GFI variations, are both strongly controlled by abiotic factors: rainfall, temperature and land cover. The models allowed linking flea abundance trends with murine typhus incidence rates. Flea infestation in rats peaked at the end of the dry season, corresponding to hot and dry conditions, before dropping sharply. This peak of maximal flea abundance preceded the annual peak of human murine typhus cases by a few weeks. Altogether, presented data raise novel questions regarding the ecology of rat fleas while developed models contribute to the design of control measures adapted to each micro region of the island with the aim of lowering the incidence of flea-borne diseases.

The ALBOMAURICE software runs a mosquito population dynamics model to predict the temporal and spatial abundance of Aedes albopictus, the dengue disease vector in Mauritius. For each vector surveillance zone, it solves a system of ordinary differential equations describing different stages of the mosquito life cycle. ALBOMAURICE uses daily rainfall and temperature input data to produce abundance maps used operationally by health services for targeting areas where to apply vector surveillance and control measures. Model simulations were validated against entomological data acquired weekly during a year at nine locations. Different control options can also be simulated and their effects compared.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is endemic in northern Senegal, a Sahelian area characterized by a temporary pond network that drive both RVF mosquito population dynamics and nomadic herd movements. To investigate the mechanisms that explain RVF recurrent circulation, we modelled a realistic epidemiological system at the pond level integrating vector population dynamics, resident and nomadic ruminant herd population dynamics, and nomadic herd movements recorded in Younoufere area. To calibrate the model, serological surveys were performed in 2015-2016 on both resident and nomadic domestic herds in the same area. Mosquito population dynamics were obtained from a published model trained in the same region. Model comparison techniques were used to compare five different scenarios of virus introduction by nomadic herds associated or not with vertical transmission in Aedes vexans. Our serological results confirmed a long lasting RVF endemicity in resident herds (IgG seroprevalence rate of 15.3%, n = 222), and provided the first estimation of RVF IgG seroprevalence in nomadic herds in West Africa (12.4%, n = 660). Multivariate analysis of serological data suggested an amplification of the transmission cycle during the rainy season with a peak of circulation at the end of that season. The best scenario of virus introduction combined yearly introductions of RVFV from 2008 to 2015 (the study period) by nomadic herds, with a proportion of viraemic individuals predicted to be larger in animals arriving during the 2nd half of the rainy season (3.4%). This result is coherent with the IgM prevalence rate (4%) found in nomadic herds sampled during the 2nd half of the rainy season. Although the existence of a vertical transmission mechanism in Aedes cannot be ruled out, our model demonstrates that nomadic movements are sufficient to account for this endemic circulation in northern Senegal.

Mosquitoes are responsible for the transmission of major pathogens worldwide. Modelling their population dynamics and mapping their distribution can contribute effectively to disease surveillance and control systems. Two main approaches are classically used to understand and predict mosquito abundance in space and time, namely empirical (or statistical) and process-based models. In this work, we used both approaches to model the population dynamics in Reunion Island of the 'Tiger mosquito', Aedes albopictus, a vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, using rainfall and temperature data. We aimed to i) evaluate and compare the two types of models, and ii) develop an operational tool that could be used by public health authorities and vector control services. Our results showed that Ae. albopictus dynamics in Reunion Island are driven by both rainfall and temperature with a non-linear relationship. The predictions of the two approaches were consistent with the observed abundances of Ae. albopictus aquatic stages. An operational tool with a user-friendly interface was developed, allowing the creation of maps of Ae. albopictus densities over the whole territory using meteorological data collected from a network of weather stations. It is now routinely used by the services in charge of vector control in Reunion Island.

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV), responsible for peste des petits ruminants (PPR), is widely circulating in Africa and Asia. The disease is a huge burden for the economy and development of the affected countries. In Eastern Africa, the disease is considered endemic. Because of the geographic proximity and existing trade between eastern African countries and the Comoros archipelago, the latter is at risk of introduction and spread, and the first PPR outbreaks occurred in the Union of the Comoros in 2012. The objective of this study was to map the areas suitable for PPR occurrence and spread in the Union of the Comoros and four eastern African countries, namely Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based Multicriteria Evaluation (MCE) was developed. Risk factors for PPR occurrence and spread, and their relative importance, were identified using literature review and expert-based knowledge. Corresponding geographic data were collected, standardized, and combined based on a weighted linear combination to obtain PPR suitability maps. The accuracy of the maps was assessed using outbreak data from the EMPRES database and a ROC curve analysis. Our model showed an excellent ability to distinguish between absence and presence of outbreaks in Eastern Africa (AUC = 0.907; 95% CI [0.820–0.994]), and a very good performance in the Union of the Comoros (AUC = 0.889, 95% CI: [0.694–1]). These results highlight the efficiency of the GIS-MCE method, which can be applied at different geographic scales: continental, national and local. The resulting maps provide decision support tools for implementation of disease surveillance and control measures, thus contributing to the PPR eradication goal of OIE and FAO by 2030.

Abstract Background Many zoonotic infectious diseases have emerged and re-emerged over the last two decades. There has been a significant increase in vector-borne diseases due to climate variations that lead to environmental changes favoring the development and adaptation of vectors. This study was carried out to improve knowledge of the ecology of mosquito vectors involved in the transmission of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) in Senegal. Methods An entomological survey was conducted in three Senegalese agro-systems, Senegal River Delta (SRD), Senegal River Valley (SRV) and Ferlo, during the rainy season (July to November) of 2014 and 2015. Mosquitoes were trapped using CDC light traps set at ten sites for two consecutive nights during each month of the rainy season, for a total of 200 night-traps. Ecological indices were calculated to characterize the different populations of RVFV mosquito vectors. Generalized linear models with mixed effects were used to assess the influence of climatic conditions on the abundance of RVFV mosquito vectors. Results A total of 355,408 mosquitoes belonging to 7 genera and 35 species were captured in 200 night-traps. RVFV vectors represented 89.02% of the total, broken down as follows: Ae. vexans arabiensis (31.29%), Cx. poicilipes (0.6%), Cx. tritaeniorhynchus (33.09%) and Ma. uniformis (24.04%). Comparison of meteorological indices (rainfall, temperature, relative humidity), abundances and species diversity indicated that there were no significant differences between SRD and SRV (P = 0.36) while Ferlo showed significant differences with both (P

Interfaces between protected areas and their peripheries in southern Africa are subject to interactions between wildlife and livestock that vary in frequency and intensity. In these areas, the juxtaposition between production and conservation land uses in a context of increasing anthropisation can create issues associated with human-wildlife coexistence and raises concerns for biodiversity conservation, local development and livelihoods. This literature review aimed at addressing the need to consolidate and gather in one article current knowledge on potential uses of satellite remote sensing (SRS) products by movement ecologists to investigate the sympatry of wildlife/domestic ungulates in savanna interface environments. A keyword querying process of peer reviewed scientific paper, thesis and books has been implemented to identify references that (1) characterize the main environmental drivers impacting buffalo (Syncerus caffer caffer) and cattle (Bos taurus & Bos indicus) movements in southern Africa environments, (2) describe the SRS contribution to discriminate and characterize these drivers. In total, 327 references have been selected and analyzed. Surface water, precipitation, landcover and fire emerged as key drivers impacting the buffalo and cattle movements. These environmental drivers can be efficiently characterized by SRS, mainly through open-access SRS products and standard image processing methods. Applying SRS to better understand buffalo and cattle movements in semi-arid environments provides an operational framework that could be replicated in other type of interface where different wild and domestic species interact. There is, however, a need for animal movement ecologists to reinforce their knowledge of remote sensing and/or to increase pluridisciplinary collaborations.

Abstract: The objective of this work was to apply fuzzy majority multicriteria group decision-making to determine risk areas for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) introduction along the border between Brazil and Paraguay. The study was conducted in three municipalities in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, located along the border with Paraguay. Four scenarios were built, applying the following linguistic quantifiers to describe risk factors: few, half, many, and most. The three criteria considered to be most likely to affect the vulnerability to introduction of FMD, according to experts' opinions, were: the introduction of animals in the farm, the distance from the border, and the type of property settlements. The resulting maps show a strong spatial heterogeneity in the risk of FMD introduction. The used methodology brings out a new approach that can be helpful to policy makers in the combat and eradication of FMD.

To date, there is no effective treatment to cure dengue fever, a mosquito-borne disease which has a major impact on human populations in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Although the characteristics of dengue infection are well known, factors associated with landscape are highly scale dependent in time and space, and therefore difficult to monitor. We propose here a mapping review based on 78 articles that study the relationships between landscape factors and urban dengue cases considering household, neighborhood and administrative levels. Landscape factors were retrieved from survey questionnaires, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and remote sensing (RS) techniques. We structured these into groups composed of land cover, land use, and housing type and characteristics, as well as subgroups referring to construction material, urban typology, and infrastructure level. We mapped the co-occurrence networks associated with these factors, and analyzed their relevance according to a three-valued interpretation (positive, negative, non significant). From a methodological perspective, coupling RS and GIS techniques with field surveys including entomological observations should be systematically considered, as none digital land use or land cover variables appears to be an univocal determinant of dengue occurrences. Remote sensing urban mapping is however of interest to provide a geographical frame to distribute human population and movement in relation to their activities in the city, and as spatialized input variables for epidemiological and entomological models.

Influenza D virus (IDV) has been identified in several continents, with serological evidence for the virus in Africa. In order to improve the sensitivity and cost−benefit of IDV surveillance in Togo, risk maps were drawn using a spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and experts’ opinion to evaluate the relevance of sampling areas used so far. Areas at highest risk of IDV occurrence were the main cattle markets. The maps were evaluated with previous field surveillance data collected in Togo between 2017 and 2019: 1216 sera from cattle, small ruminants, and swine were screened for antibodies to IDV by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. While further samples collections are needed to validate the maps, the risk maps resulting from the spatial MCDA approach generated here highlight several priority areas for IDV circulation assessment.

The structural risk of West Nile Disease results from the usual functioning of the socio-ecological system, which may favour the introduction of the pathogen, its circulation and the occurrence of disease cases. Its geographic variations result from the local interactions between three components: (i) reservoir hosts, (ii) vectors, both characterized by their diversity, abundance and competence, (iii) and the socio-economic context that impacts the exposure of human to infectious bites. We developed a model of bird-borne structural risk of West Nile Virus (WNV) circulation in Europe, and analysed the association between the geographic variations of this risk and the occurrence of WND human cases between 2002 and 2014. A meta-analysis of WNV serosurveys conducted in wild bird populations was performed to elaborate a model of WNV seropositivity in European bird species, considered a proxy for bird exposure to WNV. Several eco-ethological traits of bird species were linked to seropositivity and the statistical model adequately fitted species-specific seropositivity data (area under the ROC curve: 0.85). Combined with species distribution maps, this model allowed deriving geographic variations of the bird-borne structural risk of WNV circulation. The association between this risk, and the occurrence of WND human cases across the European Union was assessed. Geographic risk variations of bird-borne structural risk allowed predicting WND case occurrence in administrative districts of the EU with a sensitivity of 86% (95% CI: 0.79-0.92), and a specificity of 68% (95% CI: 0.66-0.71). Disentangling structural and conjectural health risks is important for public health managers as risk mitigation procedures differ according to risk type. The results obtained show promise for the prevention of WND in Europe. Combined with analyses of vector-borne structural risk, they should allow designing efficient and targeted prevention measures.

Mosquitoes are vectors of major pathogen agents worldwide. Population dynamics models are useful tools to understand and predict mosquito abundances in space and time. To be used as forecasting tools over large areas, such models could benefit from integrating remote sensing data that describe the meteorological and environmental conditions driving mosquito population dynamics. The main objective of this study is to assess a process-based modeling framework for mosquito population dynamics using satellite-derived meteorological estimates as input variables. A generic weather-driven model of mosquito population dynamics was applied to Rift Valley fever vector species in northern Senegal, with rainfall, temperature, and humidity as inputs. The model outputs using meteorological data from ground weather station vs satellite-based estimates are compared, using longitudinal mosquito trapping data for validation at local scale in three different ecosystems. Model predictions were consistent with field entomological data on adult abundance, with a better fit between predicted and observed abundances for the Sahelian Ferlo ecosystem, and for the models using in-situ weather data as input. Based on satellite-derived rainfall and temperature data, dynamic maps of three potential Rift Valley fever vector species were then produced at regional scale on a weekly basis. When direct weather measurements are sparse, these resulting maps should be used to support policy-makers in optimizing surveillance and control interventions of Rift Valley fever in Senegal.

Background: Predicting habitats prone to favor disease transmission is challenging due to confounding information on habitats, reservoirs, and diseases. Comparative analysis, which aims at investigating ecological and evolutionary patterns among species, is a tool that may help. The emergence of zoonotic pathogens is a major health concern and is closely linked to habitat modifications by human activities. Risk assessment requires a better knowledge of the interactions between hosts, parasites, and the landscape. Methods: We used information from a field spatial study that investigated the distribution of murid rodents, in various habitats of three countries in Southeast Asia, in combination with their status of infection by 10 taxa of microparasites obtained from the literature. Microparasite species richness was calculated by rodent species on 20,272 rodents of 13 species. Regression tree models and generalized linear models were used to explain microparasite diversity by the average distance between the trapping site and five categories of land cover: forest, steep agriculture land, flat agriculture land, water, and built-up surfaces. Another variable taken into account was the slope. Results: We found that microparasite diversity was positively associated with flat agriculture land, in this context mainly rice fields, and negatively associated with slope. Microparasite diversity decreased sharply a 100 m or less from flat agriculture land. Conclusion: We conclude that there is high microparasite circulation in rodents of flooded farmlands, meaning possibly a higher risk of disease for human inhabitants.

Rift Valley fever (RVF), a mosquito-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans, is one of the most important viral zoonoses in Africa. The objective of the present study was to develop a geographic knowledge-based method to map the areas suitable for RVF amplification and RVF spread in four East African countries, namely, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia, and to assess the predictive accuracy of the model using livestock outbreak data from Kenya and Tanzania. Risk factors and their relative importance regarding RVF amplification and spread were identified from a literature review. A numerical weight was calculated for each risk factor using an analytical hierarchy process. The corresponding geographic data were collected, standardized and combined based on a weighted linear combination to produce maps of the suitability for RVF transmission. The accuracy of the resulting maps was assessed using RVF outbreak locations in livestock reported in Kenya and Tanzania between 1998 and 2012 and the ROC curve analysis. Our results confirmed the capacity of the geographic information system-based multi-criteria evaluation method to synthesize available scientific knowledge and to accurately map (AUC = 0.786; 95% CI [0.730-0.842]) the spatial heterogeneity of RVF suitability in East Africa. This approach provides users with a straightforward and easy update of the maps according to data availability or the further development of scientific knowledge.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004827.].

BACKGROUND:Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans. Madagascar was heavily affected by RVF in 2008-2009, with evidence of a large and heterogeneous spread of the disease. The identification of at-risk environments is essential to optimize the available resources by targeting RVF surveillance in Madagascar. Herein, the objectives of our study were: (i) to identify the environmental factors and areas favorable to RVF transmission to both cattle and human and (ii) to identify human behaviors favoring human infections in Malagasy contexts. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:First, we characterized the environments of Malagasy communes using a Multiple Factor Analysis (MFA). Then, we analyzed cattle and human serological data collected at national level using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, with the individual serological status (cattle or human) as the response, and MFA factors, as well as other potential risk factors (cattle density, human behavior) as explanatory variables. Cattle and human seroprevalence rates were positively associated to humid environments (p

To study a 2001 dengue fever outbreak in Iracoubo, French Guiana, we recorded the location of all patients’ homes and the date when symptoms were first observed. A geographic information system was used to integrate the patient-related information. The Knox test, a classic space-time analysis technique, was used to detect spatiotemporal clustering. Analysis of the relative-risk (RR) variations when space and time distances vary, highlighted the maximum space and time extent of a dengue transmission focus. The results show that heterogeneity in the RR variations in space and time corresponds to known entomologic and epidemiologic factors, such as the mosquito feeding cycle and host-seeking behavior. This finding demonstrates the relevance and potential of the use of GIS and spatial statistics for elaborating a dengue fever surveillance strategy.

We modelled the ecoclimatic niche of Culicoides imicola, a major arthropod vector of midge-borne viral pathogens affecting ruminants and equids, at fine scale and on a global extent, so as to provide insight into current and future risks of disease epizootics, and increase current knowledge of the species' ecology. Based on the known distribution and ecology of C. imicola, the species' response to monthly climatic conditions was characterised using CLIMEX with 10' spatial resolution climatic datasets. The species' climatic niche was projected worldwide and under future climatic scenarios. The validated model highlights the role of irrigation in supporting the occurrence of C. imicola in arid regions. In Europe, the modelled potential distribution of C. imicola extended further West than its reported distribution, raising questions regarding ongoing process of colonization and non-climatic habitat factors. The CLIMEX model highlighted similar ecological niches for C. imicola and the Australasian C. brevitarsis raising questions on biogeography and biosecurity. Under the climate change scenarios considered, its' modelled potential distribution could expand northward in the Northern hemisphere, whereas in Africa its range may contract in the future. The biosecurity risks from bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses need to be re-evaluated in regions where the vector's niche is suitable. Under a warmer climate, the risk of vector-borne epizootic pathogens such as bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses are likely to increase as the climate suitability for C. imicola shifts poleward, especially in Western Europe.

BACKGROUND: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne viral zoonosis of increasing global importance. RVF virus (RVFV) is transmitted either through exposure to infected animals or through bites from different species of infected mosquitoes, mainly of Aedes and Culex genera. These mosquitoes are very sensitive to environmental conditions, which may determine their presence, biology, and abundance. In East Africa, RVF outbreaks are known to be closely associated with heavy rainfall events, unlike in the semi-arid regions of West Africa where the drivers of RVF emergence remain poorly understood. The assumed importance of temporary ponds and rainfall temporal distribution therefore needs to be investigated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A hydrological model is combined with a mosquito population model to predict the abundance of the two main mosquito species (Aedes vexans and Culex poicilipes) involved in RVFV transmission in Senegal. The study area is an agropastoral zone located in the Ferlo Valley, characterized by a dense network of temporary water ponds which constitute mosquito breeding sites. The hydrological model uses daily rainfall as input to simulate variations of pond surface areas. The mosquito population model is mechanistic, considers both aquatic and adult stages and is driven by pond dynamics. Once validated using hydrological and entomological field data, the model was used to simulate the abundance dynamics of the two mosquito species over a 43-year period (1961-2003). We analysed the predicted dynamics of mosquito populations with regards to the years of main outbreaks. The results showed that the main RVF outbreaks occurred during years with simultaneous high abundances of both species. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study provides for the first time a mechanistic insight on RVFV transmission in West Africa. It highlights the complementary roles of Aedes vexans and Culex poicilipes mosquitoes in virus transmission, and recommends the identification of rainfall patterns favourable for RVFV amplification.

By providing a wide view of territories, satellite images and aerial photographs allow to capture the environmental factors that can affect the health of populations. Since the development of satellite remote sensing in the 1970s, its use in the health field has had moderate success. Although its potential was widely mentioned in the literature until the 2000s, its operational contribution was not obvious. It is only recently that health applications have been enriched and multiplied by the development of interdisciplinary approaches. This article aims to question the uses of remote sensing applied to health issues according to technical, historical, and thematic aspects in order to identify the bottlenecks. First, it offers a didactic view of theoretical principles, available data and possible uses. Through a bibliographic study, it offers a retrospective look at the evolution of its implementation in the field of health, which allows synthesizing current contributions: for operational mapping, for surveillance and analysis of the dynamics of infectious diseases or, to a lesser extent, to apprehend the vulnerabilities of populations such as difficulties in accessing healthcare. Finally, the article concludes on the limits, recommendations and perspectives for optimizing these uses, which are often constrained by technical and structural issues and for which methodologies still need to be developed.