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Purpose of Review Voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) has been a cornerstone of HIV prevention in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) and is credited in part for declines in HIV incidence seen in recent years. However, these HIV incidence declines change VMMC cost-effectiveness and how it varies across populations. Recent Findings Mathematical models project continued cost-effectiveness of VMMC in much of ESA despite HIV incidence declines. A key data gap is how demand generation cost differs across age groups and over time as VMMC coverage increases. Additionally, VMMC models usually neglect non-HIV effects of VMMC, such as prevention of other sexually transmitted infections and medical adverse events. While small compared to HIV effects in the short term, these could become important as HIV incidence declines. Summary Evidence to date supports prioritizing VMMC in ESA despite falling HIV incidence. Updated modeling methodologies will become necessary if HIV incidence reaches low levels.

Two randomized controlled trials demonstrated no clinical benefit of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) for either postexposure prophylaxis or early treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Using data from these studies, we calculated the time-weighted average change from baseline SARS-CoV-2 viral load and demonstrated that HCQ did not affect viral clearance.

Health authorities encouraged the use of digital contact tracing mobile applications (apps) during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the level of adoption was low because apps offered few direct benefits to counterbalance risks to personal privacy. Adoption of such apps could improve if they provided benefits to users. NOVID (COVID-19 Radar), a smartphone app, provided users with personalized data on social proximity of COVID-19 cases and exposed contacts. We analyzed uptake of NOVID at the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) during the 2020-2021 academic year. Data included anonymous NOVID users who self-identified with Georgia Tech and their first- and second-degree network contacts. NOVID achieved 13%-30% adoption at Georgia Tech. Because of technical challenges, adoption waned after an initial peak. The largest increases in adoption (from 41 to 3704) followed administrative promotion of NOVID. Adoption increased modestly (from 2512 to 2661) after faculty- and student-led promotion, such as distribution of door hangers and a public seminar. Two-thirds of on-campus NOVID users were connected to a large network of other users, enabling them to receive data on social proximity of COVID-19 cases and exposed contacts. Network cohesion was observed to emerge rapidly when adoption rates passed just 10%, consistent with estimates from network theory. The key lesson learned in this case study is that top-down administrative promotion outperforms bottom-up grassroots promotion. Relatively high levels of adoption and network cohesion, despite technical challenges during the Georgia Tech pilot of NOVID, illustrate the promise of digital contact tracing when apps provide privacy and inherently beneficial personalized data to their users, especially in regions where Google Apple Exposure Notification is not available.

In sub-Saharan Africa, HIV/AIDS remains a leading cause of death. The UNAIDS established the “95-95-95” targets to improve HIV care continuum outcomes. Using geospatial data from the Zambia Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (ZAMPHIA), this study aims to investigate geospatial patterns in the “95-95-95” indicators and individual-level determinants that impede HIV care continuum in vulnerable communities, providing insights into the factors associated with gaps. This study used data from the 2016 ZAMPHIA to investigate the geospatial distribution and individual-level determinants of engagement across the HIV care continuum in Zambia. Gaussian kernel interpolation and optimized hotspot analysis were used to identify geospatial patterns in the HIV care continuum, while geospatial k-means clustering was used to partition areas into clusters. The study also assessed healthcare availability, access, and social determinants of healthcare utilization. Multiple logistic regression models were used to examine the association between selected sociodemographic and behavioral covariates and the three main outcomes of study. Varied progress towards the “95-95-95” targets were observed in different regions of Zambia. Each “95” displayed a unique geographic pattern, independent of HIV prevalence, resulting in four distinct geographic clusters. Factors associated with gaps in the “95s” include younger age, male sex, and low wealth, with younger individuals having higher odds of not being on ART and having detectable viral loads. Our study revealed significant spatial heterogeneity in the HIV care continuum in Zambia, with different regions exhibiting unique geographic patterns and levels of performance in the “95-95-95” targets, highlighting the need for geospatial tailored interventions to address the specific needs of different subnational regions. These findings underscore the importance of addressing differential regional gaps in HIV diagnosis, enhancing community-level factors, and developing innovative strategies to improve local HIV care continuum outcomes.

BACKGROUND Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) has been a recommended HIV prevention strategy in sub-Saharan Africa since 2007, particularly in countries with high HIV prevalence. However, given the scale-up of antiretroviral therapy programmes, it is not clear whether VMMC still represents a cost-effective use of scarce HIV programme resources. METHODS Using five existing well described HIV mathematical models, we compared continuation of VMMC for 5 years in men aged 15 years and older to no further VMMC in South Africa, Malawi, and Zimbabwe and across a range of setting scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa. Outputs were based on a 50-year time horizon, VMMC cost was assumed to be US$90, and a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 was used. FINDINGS In South Africa and Malawi, the continuation of VMMC for 5 years resulted in cost savings and health benefits (infections and disability-adjusted life-years averted) according to all models. Of the two models modelling Zimbabwe, the continuation of VMMC for 5 years resulted in cost savings and health benefits by one model but was not as cost-effective according to the other model. Continuation of VMMC was cost-effective in 68% of setting scenarios across sub-Saharan Africa. VMMC was more likely to be cost-effective in modelled settings with higher HIV incidence; VMMC was cost-effective in 62% of settings with HIV incidence of less than 0·1 per 100 person-years in men aged 15-49 years, increasing to 95% with HIV incidence greater than 1·0 per 100 person-years. INTERPRETATION VMMC remains a cost-effective, often cost-saving, prevention intervention in sub-Saharan Africa for at least the next 5 years. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation for the HIV Modelling Consortium.

Background The SEARCH study provided community-based HIV and multi-disease testing and antiretroviral therapy (ART) to 32 communities in East Africa and reported no statistically significant difference in three-year HIV incidence. We used mathematical modelling to estimate the effect of control arm viral suppression and community mixing on SEARCH trial outcomes. Setting Uganda and Kenya. Methods Using the individual-based HIV modeling software EMOD-HIV, we configured a new model of SEARCH communities. The model was parameterized using demographic, HIV prevalence, male circumcision, and viral suppression data, and calibrated to HIV prevalence, ART coverage, and population size. Using assumptions about ART scale-up in the control arm, degree of community mixing, and effect of baseline testing, we estimated comparative HIV incidence under multiple scenarios. Results Prior to the trial results, we predicted that SEARCH would report a 4-40% reduction between arms, depending on control arm ART linkage rates and community mixing. With universal baseline testing followed by rapidly expanded ART eligibility and uptake, modelled effect sizes were smaller than the study was powered to detect. Using interim viral suppression data, we estimated three-year cumulative incidence would have been reduced by up to 27% in the control arm and 43% in the intervention arm compared to a counterfactual without universal baseline testing. Conclusions Our model suggests that the active control arm substantially reduced expected effect size and power of the SEARCH study. However, compared to a counterfactual "true control" without increased ART linkage due to baseline testing, SEARCH reduced HIV incidence by up to 43%.

Coronavirus disease 2019 symptom definitions rarely include symptom severity. We collected daily nasal swab samples and symptom diaries from contacts of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) case patients. Requiring ≥1 moderate or severe symptom reduced sensitivity to predict SARS-CoV-2 shedding from 60.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.9%−66.7%) to 31.5% (95% CI, 25.7%− 38.0%) but increased specificity from 77.5% (95% CI, 75.3%−79.5%) to 93.8% (95% CI, 92.7%−94.8%).

Summary Background The number of people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) requiring treatment monitoring in low-resource settings is rapidly increasing. Point-of-care (POC) testing for ART monitoring might alleviate burden on centralised laboratories and improve clinical outcomes, but its cost-effectiveness is unknown. Methods We used cost and effectiveness data from the STREAM trial in South Africa (February, 2017–October, 2018), which evaluated POC testing for viral load, CD4 count, and creatinine, with task shifting from professional to lower-cadre registered nurses compared with laboratory-based testing without task shifting (standard of care). We parameterised an agent-based network model, EMOD-HIV, to project the impact of implementing this intervention in South Africa over 20 years, simulating approximately 175 000 individuals per run. We assumed POC monitoring increased viral suppression by 9 percentage points, enrolment into community-based ART delivery by 25 percentage points, and switching to second-line ART by 1 percentage point compared with standard of care, as reported in the STREAM trial. We evaluated POC implementation in varying clinic sizes (10–50 patient initiating ART per month). We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and report the mean and 90% model variability of 250 runs, using a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted for our main analysis. Findings POC testing at 70% coverage of patients on ART was projected to reduce HIV infections by 4·5% (90% model variability 1·6 to 7·6) and HIV-related deaths by 3·9% (2·0 to 6·0). In clinics with 30 ART initiations per month, the intervention had an ICER of $197 (90% model variability –27 to 863) per DALY averted; results remained cost-effective when varying background viral suppression, ART dropout, intervention effectiveness, and reduction in HIV transmissibility. At higher clinic volumes (≥40 ART initiations per month), POC testing was cost-saving and at lower clinic volumes (20 ART initiations per month) the ICER was $734 (93 to 2569). A scenario that assumed POC testing did not increase enrolment into community ART delivery produced ICERs that exceeded the cost-effectiveness threshold for all clinic volumes. Interpretation POC testing is a promising strategy to cost-effectively improve patient outcomes in moderately sized clinics in South Africa. Results are most sensitive to changes in intervention impact on enrolment into community-based ART delivery. Funding National Institutes of Health.

Seung Heon Lee,1 So-Youn Park,2 Jeong-Yeon Seon,3 Woo-Hwi Jeon,3 Sung-Il Nam,4 Jong-Hak Park,5 Jae Seok Park,6 Hae-Young Kim,7 Niket Thakkar,8 Prashanth Selvaraj,8 Anna Bershteyn,7 In-Hwan Oh3 1Division of Pulmonary, Sleep, and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University Ansan Hospital, Ansan, Republic of Korea; 2Department of Medical Education and Humanities, School of Medicine, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 3Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 4Department of Otolaryngology-Head & Neck Surgery, Keimyung University Dongsan Hospital, Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu, Republic of Korea; 5Department of Emergency Medicine, Korea University Ansan Hospital, Ansan, Republic of Korea; 6Division of Pulmonology, Department of Internal Medicine, Keimyung University Dongsan Hospital, Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu, Republic of Korea; 7Department of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA; 8Institute for Disease Modeling, Seattle, WA, USACorrespondence: In-Hwan Oh Department of Preventive MedicineSchool of Medicine, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, Republic of KoreaFax +82-2-969-0792Email ihoh@khu.ac.krObjective: To identify risk factors for intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mechanical ventilator usage among confirmed coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients and estimate the effects of mitigation efforts on ICU capacity in Korea.Patients and Methods: Data on profiles and medical history of all confirmed COVID-19 patients in the past 1 year were extracted from the Korean National Health Insurance System’s claims database to assess risk factors for ICU admission and ventilator use. We used a time-series epidemic model to estimate the ICU census in Daegu from the reported hospital data.Findings: Multivariate regression analysis revealed male sex, old age, and residing in Daegu city as significant risk factors for ICU admission. The number of patients requiring ICU admission exceeded the bed capacity across all Daegu hospitals before March 9, 2020, and therefore, critically ill patients were transferred to nearby hospitals outside Daegu. This finding was consistent with our prediction that the ICU census in Daegu would peak on March 16, 2020, at 160 through mitigation efforts, without which it would have reached 300 by late March 2020.Conclusion: Older age and male sex were risk factors for ICU admission. In addition, the geographic location of the hospital seems to contribute to the severity of the COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU and to the ICU capacity.Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, ICU admission, Korea, risk factors

HIV modelling and economic analyses have had a prominent role in guiding programmatic responses to HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. We reflect critically how the HIV modelling field might develop in future. We argue for HIV modelling to be more routinely aligned with national government and ministry of health priorities, recognizing their legitimate mandates and stewardship responsibilities, for HIV and other wider health programmes. We also place importance on an environment existing in which collaboration between modellers, and joint approaches to addressing modelling questions, becomes the norm rather than exception. Such an environment can accelerate translation of modelling analyses into policy formulation because areas where models agree can be prioritized for action, whereas areas over which uncertainty prevails can be slated for additional study, data collection and analysis. We also argue the need for HIV modelling to increasingly be integrated with the modelling of health needs beyond HIV, particularly in allocative efficiency analyses, where focusing on one disease over another may lead to worse health overall. Such integration may also enhance partnership with national governments whose mandates extend beyond HIV and to all of health care. Finally, we see a need for there to be substantial and equitable investment in capacity strengthening within African countries, so that African researchers will increasingly be leading modelling exercises. Building a critical mass of expertise, strengthened through external collaboration and knowledge exchange, should be the ultimate goal.

In this so-called treat-all era, antiretroviral therapy (ART) interruptions contribute to an increasing proportion of HIV infections and deaths. Many strategies to improve retention on ART cost more than standard of care. In this study, we aimed to estimate the upper-bound costs at which such interventions should be adopted.In this combined analysis, we compared the infections averted, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted, and upper-bound costs of interventions that improve ART retention in three HIV models with diverse structures, assumptions, and baseline settings: EMOD in South Africa, Optima in Malawi, and Synthesis in sub-Saharan African low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We modelled estimates over a 40-year time horizon, from a baseline of Jan 1, 2022, when interventions would be implemented, to Jan 1, 2062. We varied increment of ART retention (25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% retention), the extent to which interventions could be targeted towards individuals at risk of interrupting ART, and cost-effectiveness thresholds in each setting.Despite simulating different settings and epidemic trends, all three models produced consistent estimates of health benefit (ie, DALYs averted) and transmission reduction per increment in retention. The range of estimates was 1·35-3·55 DALYs and 0·12-0·20 infections averted over the 40-year time horizon per additional person-year retained on ART. Upper-bound costs varied by setting and intervention effectiveness. Improving retention by 25% among all people receiving ART, regardless of risk of ART interruption, gave an upper-bound cost per person-year of US$2-6 in Optima (Malawi), $43-68 in Synthesis (LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa), and $28-180 in EMOD (South Africa). A maximally targeted and effective retention intervention had an upper-bound cost per person-year of US$93-223 in Optima (Malawi), $871-1389 in Synthesis (LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa), and $1013-6518 in EMOD (South Africa).Upper-bound costs that could improve ART retention vary across sub-Saharan African settings and are likely to be similar to or higher than was estimated before the start of the treat-all era. Upper-bound costs could be increased by targeting interventions to those most at risk of interrupting ART.BillMelinda Gates Foundation.

Racial and ethnic diversity among study participants is associated with improved generalizability of clinical trial results and may address inequities in evidence that informs public health strategies. Novel strategies are needed for equitable access and recruitment of diverse clinical trial populations.To investigate demographic and geographical location data for participants in 2 remote COVID-19 clinical trials with online recruitment and compare with those of a contemporaneous clinic-based COVID-19 study.This cohort study was conducted using data from 3 completed, prospective randomized clinical trials conducted at the same time: 2 remotely conducted studies (the Early Treatment Study and Hydroxychloroquine COVID-19 Postexposure Prophylaxis [PEP] Study) and 1 clinic-based study of convalescent plasma (the Expanded Access to Convalescent Plasma for the Treatment of Patients With COVID-19 study). Data were collected from March to August 2020 with 1 to 28 days of participant follow-up. All studies had clinical sites in Seattle, Washington; the 2 remote trials also had collaborating sites in New York, New York; Syracuse, New York; Baltimore, Maryland; Boston, Massachusetts; Chicago, Illinois; New Orleans, Louisiana; and Los Angeles, California. Two remote trials with inclusive social media strategies enrolled 929 participants with recent SARS-CoV-2 exposure (Hydroxychloroquine COVID-19 PEP Trial) and 231 participants with COVID-19 infection (Early Treatment Study); the clinic-based Expanded Access to Convalescent Plasma for the Treatment of Patients With COVID-19 study enrolled 250 participants with recent COVID-19 infection. Data were analyzed from April to August 2021.Remote trials used inclusive social media strategies and clinician referral for recruitment and telehealth, courier deliveries, and self-collected nasal swabs for remotely conducted study visits. For the clinic-based study, participants were recruited via clinician referral and attended in-person visits.Google Analytics data were used to measure online participant engagement and recruitment. Participant demographics and geographical location data from remote trials were pooled and compared with those of the clinic-based study. Statistical comparison of demographic data was limited to participants with COVID infections (ie, those in the remotely conducted Early Treatment Study vs those in the clinic-based study) to improve accuracy of comparison given that the Hydroxychloroquine COVID-19 PEP Trial enrolled participants with COVID-19 exposures and thus had different enrollment criteria.A total of 1410 participants were included. Among 1160 participants in remote trials and 250 participants in the clinic-based trial, the mean (range) age of participants was 39 (18-80) years vs 50 (19-79) years and 676 individuals (58.3%) vs 131 individuals (52.4%) reported female sex. The Early Treatment Study with inclusive social media strategies enrolled 231 participants in 41 US states with increased rates of racial, ethnic, and geographic diversity compared with participants in the clinic-based study. Among 228 participants in the remotely conducted Early Treatment Study with race data vs participants in the clinic-based study, 39 individuals (17.1%) vs 1 individual (0.4%) identified as Alaska Native or American Indian, 11 individuals (4.8%) vs 22 individuals (8.8%) identified as Asian, 26 individuals (11.4%) vs 4 individuals (1.6%) identified as Black, 3 individuals (1.3%) vs 1 individual identified as Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, 117 individuals (51.3%) vs 214 individuals (85.6%) identified as White, and 32 individuals (14.0%) vs 8 individuals (3.2%) identified as other race (P .001). Among 230 individuals in the Early Treatment Study vs 236 individuals in the clinic-based trial with ethnicity data, 71 individuals (30.9%) vs 11 individuals (4.7%) identified as Hispanic or Latinx (P.001). There were 29 individuals in the Early Treatment Study with nonurban residences (ie, rural, small town, or peri-urban; 12.6%) vs 6 of 248 individuals in the clinic-based trial with residence data (2.4%) (P .001). In remote trial online recruitment, the highest engagement was with advertisements on social media platforms; among 125 147 unique users with age demographics who clicked on online recruitment advertisements, 84 188 individuals (67.3%) engaged via Facebook.These findings suggest that remote clinical trials with online advertising may be considered as a strategy to improve diversity among clinical trial participants.

Summary Background The COVID-19 pandemic could lead to disruptions to provision of HIV services for people living with HIV and those at risk of acquiring HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, where UNAIDS estimated that more than two-thirds of the approximately 38 million people living with HIV resided in 2018. We aimed to predict the potential effects of such disruptions on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods In this modelling study, we used five well described models of HIV epidemics (Goals, Optima HIV, HIV Synthesis, an Imperial College London model, and Epidemiological MODeling software [EMOD]) to estimate the effect of various potential disruptions to HIV prevention, testing, and treatment services on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa lasting 6 months over 1 year from April 1, 2020. We considered scenarios in which disruptions affected 20%, 50%, and 100% of the population. Findings A 6-month interruption of supply of antiretroviral therapy (ART) drugs across 50% of the population of people living with HIV who are on treatment would be expected to lead to a 1·63 times (median across models; range 1·39–1·87) increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period compared with no disruption. In sub-Saharan Africa, this increase amounts to a median excess of HIV deaths, across all model estimates, of 296 000 (range 229 023–420 000) if such a high level of disruption occurred. Interruption of ART would increase mother-to-child transmission of HIV by approximately 1·6 times. Although an interruption in the supply of ART drugs would have the largest impact of any potential disruptions, effects of poorer clinical care due to overstretched health facilities, interruptions of supply of other drugs such as co-trimoxazole, and suspension of HIV testing would all have a substantial effect on population-level mortality (up to a 1·06 times increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period due to disruptions affecting 50% of the population compared with no disruption). Interruption to condom supplies and peer education would make populations more susceptible to increases in HIV incidence, although physical distancing measures could lead to reductions in risky sexual behaviour (up to 1·19 times increase in new HIV infections over a 1-year period if 50% of people are affected). Interpretation During the COVID-19 pandemic, the primary priority for governments, donors, suppliers, and communities should focus on maintaining uninterrupted supply of ART drugs for people with HIV to avoid additional HIV-related deaths. The provision of other HIV prevention measures is also important to prevent any increase in HIV incidence. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Summary Background The rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals over the last decade has sparked considerable debate as to whether universal test and treat can end the HIV-1 epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to develop a network transmission model, calibrated to capture age-specific and sex-specific gaps in the scale-up of ART, to estimate the historical and future effect of attaining and surpassing the UNAIDS 90-90-90 treatment targets on HIV-1 incidence and mortality, and to assess whether these interventions will be enough to achieve epidemic control (incidence of 1 infection per 1000 person-years) by 2030. Methods We used eSwatini (formerly Swaziland) as a case study to develop our model. We used data on HIV prevalence by 5-year age bins, sex, and year from the 2007 Swaziland Demographic Health Survey (SDHS), the 2011 Swaziland HIV Incidence Measurement Survey, and the 2016 Swaziland Population Health Impact Assessment (PHIA) survey. We estimated the point prevalence of ART coverage among all HIV-infected individuals by age, sex, and year. Age-specific data on the prevalence of male circumcision from the SDHS and PHIA surveys were used as model inputs for traditional male circumcision and scale-up of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC). We calibrated our model using publicly available data on demographics; HIV prevalence by 5-year age bins, sex, and year; and ART coverage by age, sex, and year. We modelled the effects of five scenarios (historical scale-up of ART and VMMC [status quo], no ART or VMMC, no ART, age-targeted 90-90-90, and 100% ART initiation) to quantify the contribution of ART scale-up to declines in HIV incidence and mortality in individuals aged 15–49 by 2016, 2030, and 2050. Findings Between 2010 and 2016, status-quo ART scale-up among adults (aged 15–49 years) in eSwatini (from 34·0% in 2010 to 74·1% in 2016) reduced HIV incidence by 43·57% (95% credible interval 39·71 to 46·36) and HIV mortality by 56·17% (54·06 to 58·92) among individuals aged 15–49 years, with larger reductions in incidence among men and mortality among women. Holding 2016 ART coverage levels by age and sex into the future, by 2030 adult HIV incidence would fall to 1·09 (0·87 to 1·29) per 100 person-years, 1·42 (1·13 to 1·71) per 100 person-years among women and 0·79 (0·63 to 0·94) per 100 person-years among men. Achieving the 90-90-90 targets evenly by age and sex would further reduce incidence beyond status-quo ART, primarily among individuals aged 15–24 years (an additional 17·37% [7·33 to 26·12] reduction between 2016 and 2030), with only modest additional incidence reductions in adults aged 35–49 years (1·99% [–5·09 to 7·74]). Achieving 100% ART initiation among all people living with HIV within an average of 6 months from infection—an upper bound of plausible treatment effect—would reduce adult HIV incidence to 0·73 infections (0·55 to 0·92) per 100 person-years by 2030 and 0·46 (0·33 to 0·59) per 100 person-years by 2050. Interpretation Scale-up of ART over the last decade has already contributed to substantial reductions in HIV-1 incidence and mortality in eSwatini. Focused ART targeting would further reduce incidence, especially in younger individuals, but even the most aggressive treatment campaigns would be insufficient to end the epidemic in high-burden settings without a renewed focus on expanding preventive measures. Funding Global Good Fund and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Key Points Question What are the characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 G614 viral shedding in incident infections in association with COVID-19 symptom onset and severity? Findings In a cohort study of persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 after recent exposure, viral RNA trajectory was characterized by a rapid peak followed by slower decay. Peak viral load correlated positively with symptom severity and generally occurred within 1 day of symptom onset if the patient was symptomatic. Meaning A detailed description of the SARS-CoV-2 G614 viral shedding trajectory serves as a baseline for comparison with new viral variants of concern and informs models to plan clinical trials to end the pandemic., Importance The SARS-CoV-2 viral trajectory has not been well characterized in incident infections. These data are needed to inform natural history, prevention practices, and therapeutic development. Objective To characterize early SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA load (hereafter referred to as viral load) in individuals with incident infections in association with COVID-19 symptom onset and severity. Design, Setting, and Participants This prospective cohort study was a secondary data analysis of a remotely conducted study that enrolled 829 asymptomatic community-based participants recently exposed (, This cohort study characterizes early SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA load in individuals with incident infections in association with COVID-19 symptom onset and severity.

Infectious disease transmission is a nonlinear process with complex, sometimes unintuitive dynamics. Modeling can transform information about a disease process and its parameters into quantitative projections that help decision makers compare public health response options. However, modelers face methodologic challenges, data challenges, and communication challenges, which are exacerbated under the time constraints of a public health emergency. We review methods, applications, challenges and opportunities for real-time infectious disease modeling during public health emergencies, with examples drawn from the two deadliest pandemics in recent history: HIV/AIDS and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

While detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by diagnostic reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is highly sensitive for viral RNA, the nucleic acid amplification of subgenomic RNAs (sgRNAs) that are the product of viral replication may more accurately identify replication. We characterized the diagnostic RNA and sgRNA detection by RT-PCR from nasal swab samples collected daily by participants in postexposure prophylaxis or treatment studies for SARS-CoV-2. Among 1932 RT-PCR–positive swab samples with sgRNA tests, 40% (767) had detectable sgRNA. Above a diagnostic RNA viral load (VL) threshold of 5.1 log10 copies/mL, 96% of samples had detectable sgRNA with VLs that followed a linear trend. The trajectories of diagnostic RNA and sgRNA VLs differed, with 80% peaking on the same day but duration of sgRNA detection being shorter (8 vs 14 days). With a large sample of daily swab samples we provide comparative sgRNA kinetics and a diagnostic RNA threshold that correlates with replicating virus independent of symptoms or duration of illness.

We reviewed the timeline of key policies for control of the coronavirus disease epidemic and determined their impact on the epidemic and hospital burden in South Korea. Using a discrete stochastic transmission model, we estimated that multilevel policies, including extensive testing, contact tracing, and quarantine, reduced contact rates by 90% and rapidly decreased the epidemic in Daegu and nationwide during February‒March 2020. Absence of these prompt responses could have resulted in a >10-fold increase in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by May 15, 2020, relative to the status quo. The model suggests that reallocation of persons who have mild or asymptomatic cases to community treatment centers helped avoid overwhelming hospital capacity and enabled healthcare workers to provide care for more severely and critically ill patients in hospital beds and negative-pressure intensive care units. As small outbreaks continue to occur, contact tracing and maintenance of hospital capacity are needed.

ImportanceSARS-CoV-2 viral trajectory has not been well-characterized in documented incident infections. These data will inform SARS-CoV-2 natural history, transmission dynamics, prevention practices, and therapeutic development.ObjectiveTo prospectively characterize early SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding in persons with incident infection.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingSecondary data analysis from a multicenter study in the U.S.ParticipantsThe samples derived from a randomized controlled trial of 829 community-based asymptomatic participants recently exposed (ExposureLaboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.Main outcomes and measuresThe observed SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding characteristics were summarized and shedding trajectories were examined using a piece-wise linear mixed-effects modeling. Whole viral genome sequencing was performed on samples with cycle threshold (Ct)ResultsNinety-seven persons (57% women, median age 37-years) developed incident infections during 14-days of follow-up. Two-hundred fifteen sequenced samples were assigned to 15 lineages that belonged to the G614 variant. Forty-two (43%), 18(19%), and 31(32%) participants had viral shedding for 1 day, 2-6 days, and ≥7 days, with median peak viral load Ct of 38.5, 36.7, and 18.3, respectively. Six (6%) participants had 1–6 days of observed viral shedding with censored duration. The peak average viral load was observed on day 3 of viral shedding. The average Ct value was lower, indicating higher viral load, in persons reporting COVID-19 symptoms than asymptomatic. Using the statistical model, the median time from shedding onset to peak viral load was 1.4 days followed by a median of 9.7 days before clearance.Conclusions and RelevanceIncident SARS-CoV-2 G614 infection resulted in a rapid viral load peak followed by slower decay and positive correlation between peak viral load and shedding duration; duration of shedding was heterogeneous. This longitudinal evaluation of the SARS-CoV-2 G614 variant with frequent molecular testing may serve as a reference for comparing emergent viral lineages to inform clinical trial designs and public health strategies to contain the spread of the virus.KEY POINTSQuestionWhat are the early SARS-CoV-2 G614 viral shedding characteristics in persons with incident infection?FindingsIn this prospective cohort of 97 community-based participants who collected daily mid-turbinate swabs for SARS-CoV-2 detection after recent exposure to SARS-CoV-2, viral trajectory was characterized by a rapid peak followed by slower decay. Peak viral load correlated positively with symptoms. The duration of shedding was heterogeneous.MeaningA detailed description of the SARS-CoV-2 G614 viral shedding trajectory serves as baseline for comparison to new viral variants of concern and inform models for the planning of clinical trials and transmission dynamics to end this pandemic.

IntroductionNew York City (NYC) was a global epicenter of COVID-19. Vaccines against COVID-19 became available in December 2020 with limited supply, resulting in the need for policies regarding prioritization. The next month, SARS-CoV-2 variants were detected that were more transmissible but still vaccine-susceptible, raising scrutiny of these policies. In particular, prioritization of higher-risk people could prevent more deaths per dose of vaccine administered but could also delay herd immunity if the prioritization introduced bottlenecks that lowered vaccination speed (the number of doses that could be delivered per day). We used mathematical modeling to examine the trade-off between prioritization and the vaccination speed.MethodsA stochastic, discrete-time susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model with age- and comorbidity-adjusted COVID-19 outcomes (infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by July 1, 2021) was used to examine the trade-off between vaccination speed and whether or not vaccination was prioritized to individuals age 65+ and “essential workers,” defined as including first responders and healthcare, transit, education, and public safety workers. The model was calibrated to COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital census, ICU census, and deaths in NYC. Vaccination speed was assumed to be 10,000 doses per day starting December 15th, 2020 targeting healthcare workers and nursing home populations, and to subsequently expand at alternative starting times and speeds. We compared COVID-outcomes across alternative expansion starting times (January 15th, January 21st, or February 1st) and speeds (20,000, 30,000, 50,000, 100,000, 150,000, or 200,000 doses per day for the first dose), as well as alternative prioritization options (“yes” versus “no” prioritization of essential workers and people age 65+). Model projections were produced with and without considering the emergence of a SARS-COV-2 variant with 56% greater transmissibility over January and February, 2021.ResultsIn the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, the emergence of the more transmissible variant would triple the peak in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths and more than double cumulative infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. To offset the harm from the more transmissible variant would require reaching a vaccination speed of at least 100,000 doses per day by January 15th or 150,000 per day by January 21st. Prioritizing people ages 65+ and essential workers increased the number of lives saved per vaccine dose delivered: with the emergence of a more transmissible variant, 8,000 deaths could be averted by delivering 115,000 doses per day without prioritization or 71,000 doses per day with prioritization. If prioritization were to cause a bottleneck in vaccination speed, more lives would be saved with prioritization only if the bottleneck reduced vaccination speed by less than one-third of the maximum vaccine delivery capacity. These trade-offs between vaccination speed and prioritization were robust over a wide range of delivery capacity.ConclusionsThe emergence of a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has the potential to triple the 2021 epidemic peak and more than double the 2021 COVID-19 burden in NYC. Vaccination could only offset the harm of the more transmissible variant if high speed were achieved in mid-to late January. Prioritization of COVID-19 vaccines to higher-risk populations saves more lives only if it does not create an excessive vaccine delivery bottleneck.

Background Prevention interventions for coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), are currently limited to non-pharmaceutical strategies. Observational and laboratory data suggested that hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) had biologic activity against SARS-CoV-2. A blinded trial of HCQ in persons with confirmed exposure and virologic and clinical endpoints is needed. Methods We conducted a national, householdrandomized, double-blind, controlled trial of HCQ post-exposure prophylaxis, with entirely remote study procedures. We enrolled close contacts exposed to persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the past 96 hours. Participants were randomized to either HCQ (400 mg daily for three days followed by 200 mg daily for eleven days) or ascorbic acid (500 mg followed by 250 mg daily), as a placebo-equivalent control. Participants self-collected mid-turbinate swabs daily (days 1–14) for SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing. The primary outcome was PCR-confirmed, incident SARS-CoV-2 infection among persons SARS-CoV-2 negative at enrollment. Symptoms were assessed using criteria from the US CDC. Results From March-August 2020, 623 households were randomized; 311 households (381 participants) to the HCQ group and 312 households (400 participants) to the control group. Ninety- one percent of participants were retained up to day 14 and 9,595 of 10,588 (91%) of swabs were tested. Among participants who were SARS-CoV-2 negative at baseline (n=626/781, 80%), the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 was 14.5% (95% CI: 11.6–17.4) and the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 symptoms was 11.6% (95% CI: 8.9–14.2) at day 14. By day 14, there was no difference between the HCQ group and control group in SARS-CoV-2 acquisition (46 vs. 43 events, aHR= 0.99, 95% CI 0.64–1.52, p=0.95) or symptomatic disease (40 vs. 32 events, aHR= 1.23, 95% CI: 0.76–1.99, p=0.40). The adverse event frequency was similar between groups (59 [15.5%] participants in the HCQ and 45 [11.3%] in the control group, p=0.092). Cumulative incidence of RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection among close contacts of diagnosed cases, by study group Conclusion This randomized, double-blind, controlled trial among persons with recent exposure and high incidence of SAR-CoV2 provides strong evidence that HCQ post-exposure prophylaxis did not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection or modify clinical disease. Disclosures Anna Bershteyn, PhD, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant/Research Support)Gates Ventures (Consultant)National Institutes of Health (Grant/Research Support) Kristopher M. Paolino, MD, MTM&H, Nothing to disclose Raphael J. Landovitz, MD, MSc, Gilead (Advisor or Review Panel member)Merck (Advisor or Review Panel member)Roche (Other Financial or Material Support, Speaker Honoraria) Anna Wald, MD, MPH, Aicuris (Individual(s) Involved: Self): Consultant; Gilead (Individual(s) Involved: Self): Consultant; GlaxoSmithKline (Individual(s) Involved: Self): Scientific Research Study Investigator; Merck (Individual(s) Involved: Self): DSMB participation; provision of vaccine for a study, Other Financial or Material Support; Sanofi (Individual(s) Involved: Self): Scientific Research Study Investigator; X-Vax (Individual(s) Involved: Self): Consultant Helen Y. Chu, MD MPH, Cepheid (Grant/Research Support)Ellume (Grant/Research Support)Glaxo Smith Kline (Consultant)Merck (Consultant)Sanofi-Pasteur (Grant/Research Support)

This is the accepted manuscript version of the work published in its final form asBershteyn, A., Schwartz, M. D., Thorpe, L. E., Paasche-orlow, M. K., Kissinger, P., Karita, H. C. S., Laufer, M. K., Hoffman, R. M., Landovitz, R. J., Paolino, K., & Ruanne V. Barnabas. (2021). Taking a stand against the politicization of medical research: How 'swinging the pendulum' poses a hazard to clinical trials, study participants, and the progress of science.Expert Review of Clinical Immunology,17(1), 101-103. https://doi.org/10.1080/1744666x.2020.1860758 Deposited byshareyourpaper.organdopenaccessbutton.org. We've taken reasonable steps to ensure this content doesn't violate copyright. However, if you think it does you can request a takedown by emailinghelp@openaccessbutton.org. &nbsp

Clinical trials have ruled out a role of hydroxychloroquine in the treatment of COVID-19, but it has been hypothesized that hydroxychloroquine's activity against SARS-CoV-2 in the laboratory suggests a role in prevention. This randomized controlled trial tests hydroxychloroquine as postexposure prophylaxis for SARS-CoV-2 infection., Visual Abstract. Postexposure Hydroxychloroquine Prophylaxis to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection Clinical trials have ruled out a role of hydroxychloroquine in the treatment of COVID-19, but it has been hypothesized that hydroxychloroquine's activity against SARS-CoV-2 in the laboratory suggests a role in prevention. This randomized controlled trial tests hydroxychloroquine as postexposure prophylaxis for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Visual Abstract. Postexposure Hydroxychloroquine Prophylaxis to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection Clinical trials have ruled out a role of hydroxychloroquine in the treatment of COVID-19, but it has been hypothesized that hydroxychloroquine's activity against SARS-CoV-2 in the laboratory suggests a role in prevention. This randomized controlled trial tests hydroxychloroquine as postexposure prophylaxis for SARS-CoV-2 infection., Background: Effective prevention against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is currently limited to nonpharmaceutical strategies. Laboratory and observational data suggested that hydroxychloroquine had biological activity against SARS-CoV-2, potentially permitting its use for prevention. Objective: To test hydroxychloroquine as postexposure prophylaxis for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Design: Household-randomized, double-blind, controlled trial of hydroxychloroquine postexposure prophylaxis. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04328961) Setting: National U.S. multicenter study. Participants: Close contacts recently exposed ( 0.20). The frequency of participants experiencing adverse events was higher in the hydroxychloroquine group than the control group (66 [16.2%] versus 46 [10.9%], respectively; P = 0.026). Limitation: The delay between exposure, and then baseline testing and the first dose of hydroxychloroquine or ascorbic acid, was a median of 2 days. Conclusion: This rigorous randomized controlled trial among persons with recent exposure excluded a clinically meaningful effect of hydroxychloroquine as postexposure prophylaxis to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection. Primary Funding Source: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

IntroductionNew York City (NYC) has the largest public school system in the United States (US). During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, NYC was the first major US city to open schools for in-person learning in the 2020-2021 academic year. Several policies were implemented to reduce the risk of in-school transmission, including infection control measures (facemasks, physical distancing, enhanced indoor ventilation, cohorting of small groups, and hand hygiene), option of all-remote instruction, alternative options for how class schedules would rotate in-person and remote instruction, daily symptom screening, and testing 10-20% of students and staff weekly or monthly depending on local case rates. We sought to determine which of these policies had the greatest impact on reducing the risk of in-school transmission.MethodsWe evaluated the impact of each policy by referring to global benchmarks for the secondary attack rate (SAR) of SARS-CoV-2 in school settings and by simulating the potential for transmission in NYC’s rotating cohort schedules, in which teachers could act as “bridges” across rotating cohorts. We estimated the impact of (1) infection control measures, (2) providing an option of all-remote instruction, (3) choice of class scheduling for in-person learners, (4) daily symptom screening, (5) testing to curtail transmission, and (6) testing to identify school outbreaks. Each policy was assessed independently of other policies, with the exception of symptom screening and random testing, which were assessed both independently and jointly.ResultsAmong the policies analyzed, the greatest transmission reduction was associated with the infection control measures, followed by small class cohorts with an option for all-remote instruction, symptom screening, and finally randomly testing 10-20% of school attendees. Assuming adult staff are the primary source of within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission, weekly testing of staff could be at least as effective as symptom screening, and potentially more so if testing days occur in the beginning of the workweek with results available by the following day. A combination of daily symptom screening and testing on the first workday of each week could reduce transmission by 70%.ConclusionsAdherence to infection control is the highest priority for safe school re-opening. Further transmission reduction can be achieved through small rotating class cohorts with an option for remote learning, widespread testing at the beginning of the work week, and daily symptom screening and self-isolation. Randomly testing 10-20% of attendees weekly or monthly does not meaningfully curtail transmission and may not detect outbreaks before they have spread beyond a handful of individuals. School systems considering re-opening during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic or similarly virulent respiratory disease outbreaks should consider these relative impacts when setting policy priorities.

Background Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly effective in preventing HIV and has the potential to significantly impact the HIV epidemic. Given limited resources for HIV prevention, identifying PrEP provision strategies that maximize impact is critical. Methods We used a stochastic individual-based network model to evaluate the direct (infections prevented among PrEP users) and indirect (infections prevented among non-PrEP users as a result of PrEP) benefits of PrEP, the person-years of PrEP required to prevent one HIV infection, and the community-level impact of providing PrEP to populations defined by gender and age in western Kenya and South Africa. We examined sensitivity of results to scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) by comparing two scenarios: maintaining current coverage (“status quo”) and rapid scale-up to meet programmatic targets (“fast-track”). Results The community-level impact of PrEP was greatest among women aged 15–24 due to high incidence, while PrEP use among men aged 15–24 yielded the highest proportion of indirect infections prevented in the community. These indirect infections prevented continue to increase over time (western Kenya: 0.4–5.5 (status quo); 0.4–4.9 (fast-track); South Africa: 0.5–1.8 (status quo); 0.5–3.0 (fast-track)) relative to direct infections prevented among PrEP users. The number of person-years of PrEP needed to prevent one HIV infection was lower (59 western Kenya and 69 in South Africa in the status quo scenario; 201 western Kenya and 87 in South Africa in the fast-track scenario) when PrEP was provided only to women compared with only to men over time horizons of up to 5 years, as the indirect benefits of providing PrEP to men accrue in later years. Conclusions Providing PrEP to women aged 15–24 prevents the greatest number of HIV infections per person-year of PrEP, but PrEP provision for young men also provides indirect benefits to women and to the community overall. This finding supports existing policies that prioritize PrEP use for young women, while also illuminating the community-level benefits of PrEP availability for men when resources permit.

Introduction Over one hundred implementation studies of HIV pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) are completed, underway or planned. We synthesized evidence from these studies to inform mathematical modelling of the prevention cascade for oral and long‐acting PrEP in the setting of western Kenya, one of the world’s most heavily HIV‐affected regions. Methods We incorporated steps of the PrEP prevention cascade – uptake, adherence, retention and re‐engagement after discontinuation – into EMOD‐HIV, an open‐source transmission model calibrated to the demography and HIV epidemic patterns of western Kenya. Early PrEP implementation research from East Africa was used to parameterize prevention cascades for oral PrEP as currently implemented, delivery innovations for oral PrEP, and future long‐acting PrEP. We compared infections averted by PrEP at the population level for different cascade assumptions and sub‐populations on PrEP. Analyses were conducted over the 2020 to 2040 time horizon, with additional sensitivity analyses for the time horizon of analysis and the time when long‐acting PrEP becomes available. Results The maximum impact of oral PrEP diminished by over 98% across all prevention cascades, with the exception of long‐acting PrEP under optimistic assumptions about uptake and re‐engagement after discontinuation. Long‐acting PrEP had the highest population‐level impact, even after accounting for possible delays in product availability, primarily because its effectiveness does not depend on drug adherence. Retention was the most significant cascade step reducing the potential impact of long‐acting PrEP. These results were robust to assumptions about the sub‐populations receiving PrEP, but were highly influenced by assumptions about re‐initiation of PrEP after discontinuation, about which evidence was sparse. Conclusions Implementation challenges along the prevention cascade compound to diminish the population‐level impact of oral PrEP. Long‐acting PrEP is expected to be less impacted by user uptake and adherence, but it is instead dependent on product availability in the short term and retention in the long term. To maximize the impact of long‐acting PrEP, ensuring timely product approval and rollout is critical. Research is needed on strategies to improve retention and patterns of PrEP re‐initiation.