Search

Helicopter-based shooting is an effective management tool for large vertebrate pest animals. However, animals in low-density populations and/or dense habitat can be difficult to locate visually. Thermal-imaging technology can increase detections in these conditions. We used thermal-imaging equipment with a specific helicopter crew configuration to assist in aerial culling for feral pigs (Sus scrofa) and fallow deer (Dama dama) in South Australia in 2021. Seventy-two percent of pigs and 53% of deer were first detected in dense canopy/tall forest habitat. Median time from the first impact shot to incapacitation was < 12 s. The culling rate (animals hour -1 ) doubled compared to visual shoots over the same populations and the wounding rate was zero resulting in a incapacitation efficiency of 100%. The crew configuration gave the shooter a wide field of view and the thermal operator behind the shooter provided essential support to find new and escaping animals, and to confirm species identification and successful removal. The crew configuration allowed for successful target acquisition and tracking, with reduced target escape. The approach can increase the efficiency of aerial culling, has the potential to increase the success of programs where eradication is a viable option, and can improve animal welfare outcomes by reducing wounding rates and the escape of target animals., (© 2023. Crown.)

Industry-led culling of badgers has occurred in England to reduce the incidence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle for a number of years. Badger vaccination is also possible, and a move away from culling was "highly desirable" in a recent report to the UK government. Here we used an established simulation model to examine badger control option in a post-cull environment in England. These options included no control, various intermittent culling, badger vaccination and use of a vaccine combined with fertility control. The initial simulated cull led to a dramatic reduction in the number of infected badgers present, which increased slowly if there was no further badger management. All three approaches led to a further reduction in the number of infected badgers, with little to choose between the strategies. We do note that of the management strategies only vaccination on its own leads to a recovery of the badger population, but also an increase in the number of badgers that need to be vaccinated. We conclude that vaccination post-cull, appears to be particularly effective, compared to vaccination when the host population is at carrying capacity., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Gender determination in incubated eggs (in ovo) has the potential to substitute the highly discussed practice of culling male layer chicks. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect pictures have on peoples' preferences toward in ovo sexing at different stages of embryonic development and chick culling. For this purpose, an online survey was conducted with a representative sample of 482 respondents in Germany. A within-subject design with 2 choice experiments was used to investigate the influence pictures have on respondents' preferences and willingness to pay. The first-choice experiment contained plain text only; the second contained also pictures of a chick or the incubated eggs at the corresponding stages of development. Findings reveal that in ovo gender determination at each proposed day of incubation (d1, d4, and d9) was preferred to chick culling. In ovo screening on d1 and d4 was significantly preferred to d9. This preference for early gender determination increased significantly as a consequence to the provision of pictures. Results furthermore reveal that a high error rate of gender determination or the lack of a meaningful utilization of incubated eggs can decrease approval for in ovo gender determination to an extent, where no positive willingness to pay remains. Findings of this study are useful for stakeholders in poultry production when considering the implementation of in ovo gender determination as a morally admissible substitute to chick culling., (Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Bovine respiratory diseases (BRD) are a major concern for the beef cattle industry, as beef calves overwhelmingly develop BRD symptoms during the first weeks after their arrival at fattening units. These cases occur after weaned calves from various cow-calf producers are grouped into batches to be sold to fatteners. Cross-contaminations between calves from different origins (potentially carrying different pathogens), together with increased stress because of the process of batch creation, can increase their risks of developing BRD symptoms. This study investigated whether reducing the number of different origins per batch is a strategy to reduce the risk of BRD cases. We developed an algorithm aimed at creating batches with as few origins as possible, while respecting constraints on the number and breed of the calves. We tested this algorithm on a dataset of 137,726 weaned calves grouped into 9701 batches by a French organization. We also computed an index assessing the risks of developing BRD because of the batch composition by considering four pathogens involved in the BRD system. While increasing the heterogeneity of batches in calf bodyweight, which is not expected to strongly impact the performance, our algorithm successfully decreased the average number of origins in the same batch and their risk index. Both this algorithm and the risk index can be used as part of decision tool to assess and possibly minimize BRD risk at batch creation, but they are generic enough to assess health risk for other production animals, and optimize the homogeneity of selected characteristics.

Wild boar and feral swine number and range are increasing worldwide in parallel with their impact on biodiversity and human activities. The ecological and economic impact of this species include spread of diseases, vehicle collisions, damage to crops, amenities and infrastructures and reduction in plant and animal abundance and richness. As traditional methods such as culling have not contained the growth and spread of wild boar and feral pigs, alternative methods such as fertility control are now advocated. We used empirical data on two isolated wild boar populations to model and compare the effects of different regimes of culling and fertility control on population trends. We built a Bayesian population model and applied it to explore the implications for population control of various management options combining culling and/or contraception. The results showed that, whilst fertility control on its own was not sufficient to achieve the target reduction in wild boar number, adding fertility control to culling was more effective than culling alone. In particular, using contraceptives on 40% of the population to complement the culling of 60% of the animals, halved the time to achieve our target reduction compared with culling only. We conclude that, assuming the effort of adding fertility control to culling was found to be cost-effective in terms of population reduction, these two methods should be used simultaneously if a rapid decrease in wild boar number is required for a closed population., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

In food webs, fishery can play the role of top predator, competing thus with other top predators for valuable food resources. In this view, it has been claimed in fisheries management that culling of top predators can be a means to improve fishery yield. To investigate this hypothesis, we use theoretical population models to assess in a multispecies context how fishery yield from target species harvest responds to top predator cull. Defying crisp summary, the four analysed food web models show that this response may be either positive or negative or both, indicating that in terms of multispecies fishery management the harvest yield may not accrue as a consequence of predator removal. In addition, this multitude of behaviours points also to the fact that the response of fishery yield to top predator cull may be difficult to assess., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.)

The successful mitigation of emerging wildlife diseases may involve controversial host culling. For livestock, 'preemptive host culling' is an accepted practice involving the removal of herds with known contact to infected populations. When applied to wildlife, this proactive approach comes in conflict with biodiversity conservation goals. Here, we present an alternative approach of 'proactive hunting surveillance' with the aim of early disease detection that simultaneously avoids undesirable population decline by targeting demographic groups with (1) a higher likelihood of being infected and (2) a lower reproductive value. We applied this harvesting principle to populations of reindeer to substantiate freedom of chronic wasting disease (CWD) infection. Proactive hunting surveillance reached 99% probability of freedom from infection (<4 reindeer infected) within 3-5 years, in comparison to ~10 years using ordinary harvest surveillance. However, implementation uncertainties linked to social issues appear challenging also with this kind of host culling.

The maintenance of infectious diseases requires a sufficient number of susceptible hosts. Host culling is a potential control strategy for animal diseases. However, the reduction in biodiversity and increasing public concerns regarding the involved ethical issues have progressively challenged the use of wildlife culling. Here, we assess the potential of wildlife culling as an epidemiologically sound management tool, by examining the host ecology, pathogen characteristics, eco-sociological contexts, and field work constraints. We also discuss alternative solutions and make recommendations for the appropriate implementation of culling for disease control.

The objective was to measure the association between badger culling and bovine tuberculosis (TB) incidents in cattle herds in three areas of England between 2013-2017 (Gloucestershire and Somerset) and 2015-2017 (Dorset). Farming industry-selected licensed culling areas were matched to comparison areas. A TB incident was detection of new Mycobacterium bovis infection (post-mortem confirmed) in at least one animal in a herd. Intervention and comparison area incidence rates were compared in central zones where culling was conducted and surrounding buffer zones, through multivariable Poisson regression analyses. Central zone incidence rates in Gloucestershire (Incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.34 (95% CI 0.29 to 0.39, p < 0.001) and Somerset (IRR 0.63 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.69, p < 0.001) were lower and no different in Dorset (IRR 1.10, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.27, p = 0.168) than comparison central zone rates. The buffer zone incidence rate was lower for Gloucestershire (IRR 0.64, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.70, p < 0.001), no different for Somerset (IRR 0.97, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.16, p = 0.767) and lower for Dorset (IRR 0.45, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.54, p < 0.001) than comparison buffer zone rates. Industry-led culling was associated with reductions in cattle TB incidence rates after four years but there were variations in effects between areas.

In the present study, we assessed the annual screening coverage (i.e., the percentage of dogs that are screened for anti-Leishmania antibodies annually) in the municipality of Sobral, Ceará state, Brazil. Data on the number of dogs screened during 2008-2017 (except 2010) were obtained from the Centre for Zoonoses Control of Sobral. The annual screening coverage during 2012-2017 was calculated. Data on human visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases during 2008-2017 were compiled from the National Disease Notification System. Correlation analyses were performed to assess the correlation between canine and human data. During 2008-2017, 73,964 dogs (range, 0 to 13,980 dogs/year) were serologically screened and 2,833 (3.8%) were positive. The annual screening coverage during 2012-2017 ranged from 11.1% to 45.7%. There were no significant correlations between the number of dogs culled and the number of human VL cases, canine positivity and human VL incidence, number of dogs culled and human VL incidence, or between canine positivity and number of human VL cases. An inconsistent and relatively low annual screening coverage was found in the study area, with no dog being screened in 2010 due to the lack of serological tests. Our results highlight that many dogs potentially infected with Leishmania infantum have been virtually overlooked by public health workers in the study area, perhaps with a negative, yet underestimated, impact on the control of canine and human VL. Hence, the failure of the dog culling strategy in controlling human VL in Brazil may be due to the low screening coverage and low percentage of culled dogs, rather than the absence of associations between canine and human infections., Competing Interests: FDT has received funding from Bayer Animal Health to conduct a clinical trial to access the efficacy of flumethrin plus imidacloprid collar in preventing vector-borne pathogen infections on dogs in Brazil. He also received honoraria for talks in scientific meetings organized by Bayer Animal Health and Boehringer Ingelheim.

This paper proposes a model of West Nile Virus (WNV) including threshold control policies concerning the culling of mosquitoes and birds under different conditions. Two thresholds are introduced to estimate whether and which control strategy should be implemented. For each mosquito threshold level [Formula: see text] the dynamical behaviour of the proposed non-smooth system is investigated as the bird threshold level [Formula: see text] varies, focusing on the existence of sliding domains, the existence of pseudo-equilibria, real or virtual of the endemic equilibria, global stability of these steady states, and the most interesting case of the occurrence of a novel globally asymptotically stable pseudo-attractor. The model solutions ultimately converge to a real equilibrium or a pseudo-equilibrium (if it exists), or a pseudo-attractor if no equilibrium is real and no pseudo-equilibrium exists. Here within, we show that the free system has a single stable endemic equilibrium under biologically reasonable assumptions, and show that when the control system has: (1) a bird-culling threshold that is above the bird equilibrium, culling has no advantage; (2) a bird-culling threshold that is below the bird equilibrium, but a mosquito-culling threshold that lies above the mosquito equilibrium, the infected bird population can be reduced but the infected mosquito population will remain the same; (3) a bird-culling threshold and a mosquito-culling threshold that both lie below their respective equilibrium values of the free system, then both the infected bird and mosquito populations can be reduced to lower levels. The results suggest that preset levels of the number of infected birds and infected mosquitoes can be maintained simultaneously when threshold values are chosen properly, which provides a possible control strategy when an emergent infectious disease cannot be eradicated immediately., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Caribbean lionfish (Pterois spp.) are considered the most heavily impacting invasive marine vertebrate ever recorded. However, current management is largely inadequate, relying on opportunistic culling by recreational SCUBA divers. Culling efficiency could be greatly improved by exploiting natural aggregations, but to date this behaviour has only been recorded anecdotally, and the drivers are unknown. We found aggregations to be common in situ, but detected no conspecific attraction through visual or olfactory cues in laboratory experiments. Aggregating individuals were on average larger, but showed no further differences in morphology or life history. However, using visual assessments and 3D modelling we show lionfish prefer broad-scale, but avoid fine-scale, habitat complexity. We therefore suggest that lionfish aggregations are coincidental based on individuals' mutual attraction to similar reef structure to maximise hunting efficiency. Using this knowledge, artificial aggregation devices might be developed to concentrate lionfish densities and thus improve culling efficiency.

Shooting is an important tool for managing terrestrial wildlife populations worldwide. To date, however, there has been few quantitative methods available enabling assessment of the animal welfare outcomes of rifle hunting. We apply a variety of factors to model flight distance (distance travelled by an animal after bullet impact) and incapacitation from the moment of bullet impact. These factors include body mass, allometric and isometric scaling, comparative physiology, wound ballistics and linear kinematics. This approach provides for the first time a method for quantifying and grading the quality of shooting processes by examining only body mass and flight distance. Our model is a universally applicable tool for measuring animal welfare outcomes of shooting regimes both within and among species. For management agencies the model should be a practical tool for monitoring and evaluating animal welfare outcomes regarding shooting of mammalian populations.

The maintenance of livestock health depends on the combined actions of many different actors, both within and across different regulatory frameworks. Prior work recognised that private risk management choices have the ability to reduce the spread of infection to trading partners. We evaluate the efficiency of farmers' alternative biosecurity choices in terms of their own-benefits from unilateral strategies and quantify the impact they may have in filtering the disease externality of trade. We use bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) in England and Scotland as a case study, since this provides an example of a situation where contrasting strategies for BVD management occur between selling and purchasing farms. We use an agent-based bioeconomic model to assess the payoff dependence of farmers connected by trade but using different BVD management strategies. We compare three disease management actions: test-cull, test-cull with vaccination and vaccination alone. For a two-farm trading situation, all actions carried out by the selling farm provide substantial benefits to the purchasing farm in terms of disease avoided, with the greatest benefit resulting from test-culling with vaccination on the selling farm. Likewise, unilateral disease strategies by purchasers can be effective in reducing disease risks created through trade. We conclude that regulation needs to balance the trade-off between private gains from those bearing the disease management costs and the positive spillover effects on others.

Browsing damage by native ungulates is often to be considered one of the reasons of regeneration failure in Nothofagus pumilio silvicultural systems. Fencing and hunting in forests at regeneration phase have been proposed to mitigate browsing effects. This study aims to determine effectiveness of these control methods in harvested forests, evaluating browsing damage over regeneration, as well as climate-related constraints (freezing or desiccation). Forest structure and regeneration plots were established in two exclosures against native ungulates (Lama guanicoe) by wire fences in the Chilean portion of Tierra del Fuego island, where tree regeneration density, growth, abiotic damage and quality (multi-stems and base/stem deformation) were assessed. Exclosures did not influence regeneration density (at the initial stage with < 1.3 m high, and at the advanced stage with >1.3 m high). However, sapling height at 10-years old was significantly lower outside (40-50 cm high) than inside exclosures (80-100 cm), and also increased their annual height growth, probably as a hunting effect. Likewise, quality was better inside exclosures. Alongside browsing, abiotic conditions negatively influenced sapling quality in the regeneration phase (20%-28% of all seedlings), but greatly to taller plants (as those from inside exclosure). This highlights the importance of considering climatic factors when analysing browsing effects. For best results, control of guanaco in recently harvested areas by fencing should be applied in combination with a reduction of guanaco density through continuous hunting. The benefits of mitigation actions (fencing and hunting) on regeneration growth may shorten the regeneration phase period in shelterwood cutting forests (30-50% less time), but incremental costs must be analysed in the framework of management planning by means of long-term studies., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

An outbreak of the highly contagious animal disease classical swine fever (CSF) requires the selection of an optimal control strategy. The choice of a control strategy is a decision process depending on different aspects. Besides epidemiology, economic and ethical/social aspects must be taken into account. In this study, multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) was used to evaluate six control strategies for two regions with different farm densities. A strategy including only the minimum EU control measures and the traditional control strategy based on preventive culling were compared to alternative control strategies using emergency vaccination and/or rapid PCR testing ('emergency vaccination', 'test to slaughter', 'test to control' and 'vaccination in conjunction with rapid testing'). The MACBETH approach was used in order to assess the three main criteria (epidemiology, economics and ethical/social aspects). Subcriteria with both quantitative and qualitative performance levels were translated into a normalized scale. The Choquet integral approach was adopted to obtain a ranking of the six CSF control strategies based on the three main criteria, taking interactions into account. Three different rankings of the importance of the main criteria, which were to reflect the potential perceptions of stakeholders, were examined. Both the region under investigation and the ranking of the main criteria had an influence on the 'best' choice. Alternative control strategies were favourable to the minimum EU control and the traditional control measures independent of the farm density. Because the choice of the 'best' control strategy does not solely depend on the epidemiological efficiency, MCDM can help to find the best solution. Both MACBETH and the Choquet integral approach are feasible MCDM approaches. MACBETH only needs a qualitative evaluation and is therefore a comparatively intuitive approach. The Choquet integral does not only take the importance of the criteria into account but also the interaction between them., (© 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.)

Bovine brucellosis due to Brucella abortus infection causes significant reproductive and production losses in cattle and is a major zoonosis. Eradication of this disease has proved difficult to achieve in Portugal where it still occurs in some regions despite an ongoing national eradication programme. In 2004, the Alentejo region, a major cattle producing area, reported one of the highest levels of bovine brucellosis in the country, especially in one divisional area. In that area, bovine brucellosis was particularly problematic in a holding of ten herds, the largest extensive cattle unit in the country, which remained infected despite an extensive test-and-slaughter programme and depopulation of five herds. A 5-year programme of RB51 vaccination with biannual test-and-slaughter was thus implemented in 2004. The apparent animal seroprevalence decreased from 19% (646/3,400) to 3% (88/2930) on the third herd-level test and remained below 0.8% (27/3324) after the fourth test. After the tenth test, the holding had a prevalence of 0.1% (2/2332) and only one herd remained positive with a within-herd prevalence of 1.1% (2/177). The results were compared to all other herds (n = 10) in the divisional area that were also persistently infected but were subject only to test-and-slaughter before being depopulated. In these herds, the strategy of test-and-slaughter did not reduce the prevalence, which remained significantly higher than the vaccinated group (median = 0.48% and 8.5% in vaccinated versus non-vaccinated herds; Wilcoxon rank sum test; P < 0.01). The success of this pilot programme in continental Portugal provided a valuable case study to the official veterinary services by illustrating the value of RB51 vaccination with parallel testing and improved biosecurity as a comprehensive and sustainable strategy for bovine brucellosis control in persistently infected herds., (© 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.)

Human-wildlife conflict is a global issue. Attempts to manage this conflict impact upon wild animal welfare, an issue receiving little attention until relatively recently. Where human activities harm animal welfare these effects should be minimised where possible. However, little is known about the welfare impacts of different wildlife management interventions, and opinions on impacts vary widely. Welfare impacts therefore need to be assessed objectively. Our objectives were to: 1) establish whether an existing welfare assessment model could differentiate and rank the impacts of different wildlife management interventions (for decision-making purposes); 2) identify and evaluate any additional benefits of making formal welfare assessments; and 3) illustrate issues raised by application of the model. We applied the welfare assessment model to interventions commonly used with rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), moles (Talpa europaea) and crows (Corvus corone) in the UK. The model ranked interventions for rabbits (least impact first: fencing, head shot, chest shot) and crows (shooting, scaring, live trapping with cervical dislocation). For moles, managing molehills and tunnels scored least impact. Both spring trapping, and live trapping followed by translocation, scored greater impacts, but these could not be compared directly as they scored on different axes of the model. Some rankings appeared counter-intuitive, highlighting the need for objective formal welfare assessments. As well as ranking the humaneness of interventions, the model highlighted future research needs and how Standard Operating Procedures might be improved. The model is a milestone in assessing wildlife management welfare impacts, but our research revealed some limitations of the model and we discuss likely challenges in resolving these. In future, the model might be developed to improve its utility, e.g. by refining the time-scales. It might also be used to reach consensus among stakeholders about relative welfare impacts or to identify ways of improving wildlife management practice in the field.

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate metabolic analyses on small dairy farms regarding indications, realization, and results over 5 years., Material and Methods: In 793 serum samples (122 submissions from 53 farms) originating from cows of different lactation stages and from heifers, the parameters free fatty acids (FFA), β-hydroxybutyrate (BHB), cholesterol, urea, creatinine, glucose, total protein, albumin, bilirubin, liver enzymes, creatine kinase (CK), β-carotene, electrolytes and trace elements were analyzed., Results: In 20% of cases, investigations were initiated to control for the metabolic status. Further reasons for laboratory diagnostics were consistent with the culling causes. FFA with 56.7% displayed the most frequent deviations from the normal range during the lactation ante partum. At 8 weeks post partum (p. p.) it fell to 36-38% and later to < 11%. The BHB deviations from the normal range exceeded 68% throughout the whole lactation. During the middle and late lactation, 40-50% of the measured urea concentrations were above the upper reference limit. Hypocalcemia occurred during the first week p. p. to 13.2% and hypophosphatemia to 6.6%. For CK, deviations from the reference value of 60.4-90.0% were determined. Selenium and copper deficiencies were present in approximately 15% of cases. Heifers more frequently displayed a copper deficiency (21.3%) than cows. β-carotene deficiency was measured ante partum at 50% and p. p. at 47.1-77.8%. Adverse deviations increased between 2006 and 2011 for FFS, urea, β-carotene, and selenium in correlation with a reduction in the milk price between 2009 and 2010. Deviations from the normal range for BHB, CK, cholesterol, calcium, and inorganic phosphate remained constant. On 80% of the farms, the metabolic status improved during the investigation period., Conclusion: Even on smaller farms, peripartal metabolic screenings enable early discovery of causes of the most common culling reasons and provide options for corrective action.

The large-scale foot-and-mouth (FMD) outbreak in 2010 in Japan presented logistical challenges in conducting animal culling and disposal. During the epidemic, culling of animals on infected farms was delayed owing to the difficulties in finding suitable burial sites. In this study, a retrospective matched case-control study was conducted to investigate the potential transmission risk associated with carcass disposal by considering the geographical relationship between farms and burial sites. The results showed that burial sites and transportation routes used for carcass disposal were not significant infection sources to the neighboring farms. However, infectious farms within 500 m, particularly, pig infected farms, posed a significant transmission risk to the neighboring farms. Implementation of strict bio-security measures during carcass disposal operation is essential to reduce the risk of disease transmission to neighboring farms., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

In a 7-year longitudinal study 292 Bovelder beef cows in a restricted breeding system in South Africa were observed from 1 to 2 days before their first breeding season, when reproductive tract scoring (RTS, scored from 1 to 5) was performed, until weaning their 5th calves. The objective was to determine whether pre-breeding RTS in heifers is a valid tool to predict long-term reproductive performance. Outcomes measured were failure to show oestrus during the first 24 days of the first 50-day AI season (24-day anoestrus), failure to become pregnant during each yearly artificial insemination (AI) season (reproductive failure), number of days from the start of each AI season to calving, and number of years to reproductive failure. The effect of RTS on each outcome was adjusted for year of birth, pre-breeding age, BW and body condition score (BCS), and for 24-day anoestrus, bull, gestation length, previous days to calving and previous cow efficiency index, the latter two in the case of the 2nd to the 5th calving season. During their first breeding season, heifers with RTS 1 and 2 combined were more likely to be in anoestrus for the first 24 days (OR=3.0, 95% CI 1.5, 6.4, P=0.003), and were also more likely to fail to become pregnant even after adjusting for 24-day anoestrus (OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.1, 3.9, P=0.025), compared to those with RTS 4 and 5 combined. Animals with RTS 1 and 2 combined were at increased risk of early reproductive failure compared to those with RTS 4 and 5 combined (HR=1.4, 95% CI 1.0, 1.9, P=0.045) although RTS was not associated with calving rate or days to calving after the second calving season. Low RTS at a threshold of 1 had consistent specificity of ≥94% for both 24-day anoestrus and pregnancy failure, however its predictive value was lower in the age cohort with a higher prevalence of anoestrus. We conclude that RTS is a valid management tool for culling decisions intended to improve long-term reproductive success in a seasonal breeding system, by excluding heifers that are likely to fail to become pregnant or likely to calve late during their first calving season., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Many countries have eliminated foot and mouth disease (FMD), but outbreaks remain common in other countries. Rapid development of international trade in animals and animal products has increased the risk of disease introduction to FMD-free countries. Most mathematical models of FMD are tailored to settings that are normally disease-free, and few models have explored the impact of constrained control measures in a 'near-endemic' spatially distributed host population subject to frequent FMD re-introductions from nearby endemic wild populations, as characterizes many low-income, resource-limited countries. Here we construct a pair approximation model of FMD and investigate the impact of constraints on total vaccine supply for prophylactic and ring vaccination, and constraints on culling rates and cumulative culls. We incorporate natural immunity waning and vaccine waning, which are important factors for near-endemic populations. We find that, when vaccine supply is sufficiently limited, the optimal approach for minimizing cumulative infections combines rapid deployment of ring vaccination during outbreaks with a contrasting approach of careful rationing of prophylactic vaccination over the year, such that supplies last as long as possible (and with the bulk of vaccines dedicated toward prophylactic vaccination). Thus, for optimal long-term control of the disease by vaccination in near-endemic settings when vaccine supply is limited, it is best to spread out prophylactic vaccination as much as possible. Regardless of culling constraints, the optimal culling strategy is rapid identification of infected premises and their immediate contacts at the initial stages of an outbreak, and rapid culling of infected premises and farms deemed to be at high risk of infection (as opposed to culling only the infected farms). Optimal culling strategies are similar when social impact is the outcome of interest. We conclude that more FMD transmission models should be developed that are specific to the challenges of FMD control in near-endemic, low-income countries., (Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)