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Accurate aboveground vegetation biomass forecasting is essential for livestock management, climate impact assessments, and ecosystem health. While artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have advanced time series forecasting, a research gap in predicting aboveground biomass time series beyond single values persists. This study introduces RECMO and DirRecMO, two multi-output methods for forecasting aboveground vegetation biomass. Using convolutional neural networks, their efficacy is evaluated across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons on six Kenyan grassland biomass datasets, and compared with that of existing single-output methods (Recursive, Direct, and DirRec) and multi-output methods (MIMO and DIRMO). The results indicate that single-output methods are superior for short-term predictions, while both single-output and multi-output methods exhibit a comparable effectiveness in long-term forecasts. RECMO and DirRecMO outperform established multi-output methods, demonstrating a promising potential for biomass forecasting. This study underscores the significant impact of multi-output size on forecast accuracy, highlighting the need for optimal size adjustments and showcasing the proposed methods' flexibility in long-term forecasts. Short-term predictions show less significant differences among methods, complicating the identification of the best performer. However, clear distinctions emerge in medium- and long-term forecasts, underscoring the greater importance of method choice for long-term predictions. Moreover, as the forecast horizon extends, errors escalate across all methods, reflecting the challenges of predicting distant future periods. This study suggests advancing hybrid models (e.g., RECMO and DirRecMO) to improve extended horizon forecasting. Future research should enhance adaptability, investigate multi-output impacts, and conduct comparative studies across diverse domains, datasets, and AI algorithms for robust insights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timely forecasting of aboveground vegetation biomass is crucial for effective management and ensuring food security. However, research on predicting aboveground biomass remains scarce. Artificial intelligence (AI) methods could bridge this research gap and provide early warning to planners and stakeholders. This study evaluates the effectiveness of deep learning (DL) algorithms in predicting aboveground vegetation biomass with limited-size data. It employs an iterative forecasting procedure for four target horizons, comparing the performance of DL models—multi-layer perceptron (MLP), long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), convolutional neural network (CNN), and CNN-LSTM—against the traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, serving as a benchmark. Five limited-size vegetation biomass time series from Kenyan grasslands with values at 15-day intervals over a 20-year period were chosen for this purpose. Comparing the outcomes of these models revealed significant differences (p < 0.05); however, none of the models proved superior among the five time series and the four horizons evaluated. The SARIMA, CNN, and CNN-LSTM models performed best, with the statistical model slightly outperforming the other two. Additionally, the accuracy of all five models varied significantly according to the prediction horizon (p < 0.05). As expected, the accuracy of the models decreased as the prediction horizon increased, although this relationship was not strictly monotonic. Finally, this study indicated that, in limited-size aboveground vegetation biomass time series, there is no guarantee that deep learning methods will outperform traditional statistical methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livestock production in semi-arid areas has been unpredictable due to climate variability, mainly rainfall. This study aims to simulate rangeland production variability aff ected by rainfall over time and relate it to an adjusted carrying capacity, using forage stock to maximize the potential of production of the system to a specific guarantee level. Regression analysis of forage biomass against rainfall was performed for ecological sites in the Brazilian semi-arid region to generate probability distribution curves for the historical rainfall for each location using Monte Carlo approach. Forage biomass variability estimated over time was used as input to the model. The system optimizes forage use at a sustainable stocking rate and uses forage surpluses in good years to fill deficits during adverse years, due to a certain level of guarantee. As a rule, smallholder farmers would need to maintain a storage of around 1,500 kg ha-1 of DM of forage to maintain an adjusted carrying capacity of 0.11 animal units ha-1, with a guarantee of 95% in the long term, stressing the forage storage capacity as a central component of the model. Since farm size influences forage production capacity and mainly forage stock capacity, recommendations to cope with this paradigm are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]