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The advice to musicians and marketers is to focus on what they love: a truism for practitioners is to find 1000 'true fans' and make $100 from each of them (Kelly, 2008. 1000 True fans. The Technium). If this advice is correct, we should see musicians with loyal user bases engaging more with their favourite artists and less with other music, suggesting a narrow targeting strategy would suffice. On the other hand, the established marketing laws indicate that the listeners of very different genres should overlap more than conventional wisdom would suggest, supporting the need for a much broader approach to targeting potential audiences. Given these conflicting views, musicians need to know if they should market to their existing listeners, the listeners of music similar to theirs (i.e., the same genre), or if they should try to reach a much wider audience. We turn to established choice patterns from the marketing literature to address these questions in the music context. This study examines 84,000,000 observations of music listening from 27,000 unique global users between 2013 and 2014 and survey data from 2019 containing music listening from over 1000 representative respondents in the United States. The results show that listening follows the Duplication of Purchase law for genres, artists, albums, and songs, at an annual, 6-months, 3-months, 1-month, and 1-week period, with no indication of partitioned music listening. The implication is that musicians should try to reach all potential listeners, regardless of what they already listen to. These findings contribute to the theoretical knowledge about duplication analyses of various durations, extend the contexts of choice behaviour that exhibit this pattern, and managerially, to knowledge about the extent of potential audiences and 'share of ear' competition. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Based on the analysis of two sets of data (a cross-sectional online survey of five product categories with an average sample size of 525 and a longitudinal telecommunications panel of more than two million respondents), this study detects a positive relationship between the market size (purchase penetration) of Iranian e-brands (or websites) and the percentage of customers shared with other e-brands. This finding is consistent with the well-established Duplication of Purchase Law; it also holds over time and across different markets (e.g., repertoire v. subscription). Hence, this study makes a twofold contribution to marketing knowledge. First, it expands the collection of empirical evidence concerning the Duplication of Purchase, which thus far is primarily within offline contexts and Western countries. Second, it addresses issues inherent to research on e-loyalty, such as the over emphasis on evaluating loyalty for one e-brand at a time via complex attitudinal measures. Accordingly, this study advances consumer buying behaviour research by clarifying that, similar to offline domains and other geographical areas, e-loyalty in this buoyant Middle Eastern market divides across a small number of e-brands. It is also best appraised through behavioural loyalty and by comparing multiple e-brands competing within the same market. These outcomes translate into a series of practical guidelines for the strategic management of e-brands, improving the practical understanding how e-brands compete and grow. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

For almost nine decades, advertisers have relied on the Sainsbury Normal Method (SNM) to estimate net-reach where single-source data are either too expensive or unavailable. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no SNM validation studies have included catalogues, smartphone applications, websites, social media, or cinema. While few studies have applied the SNM across media, no study has addressed the limitation of the SNM, that is, the implied assumption of audience homogeneity. Given that audiences do differ by age within any medium, and across media, there is a need to incorporate audience heterogeneity into the method. The authors introduce the Sainsbury Weighted Method (SWM) which provides more accurate within medium net-reach estimations in 82% of the 9,680 cases analysed, with an average accuracy improvement for within medium net-reach estimations of 0.6 percentage points (or 13%). For across media net-reach, the SWM estimations are more accurate in 77% of the 968 cases analysed, improving the average accuracy by 0.5 percentage points (or 49%). Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Market share growth requires building mental and physical availability among all category buyers. However, if younger category buyers are more likely to purchase new-to-market products, then perhaps younger buyers are, relatively speaking, more important for growth. This research investigates the relationship between category buyer age, brand buyer age, and brand failure. When sub-brand buyer age is younger than category buyer age, the sub-brand is likely to be (a) new-to-market or (b) growing in market share. Older-than-category sub-brand-buyer age is likely for sub-brands that are (a) declining or (b) dead. Results from 17 years (1998–2014) of U.K. household panel data, including 5,913 sub-brands from 101 categories, show that age skews were uncommon (only 18% of sub-brands), and second, that growing, stable and declining sub-brands appealed equally to all ages. Finally, we identified that new launches and dead brands tend to skew to younger consumers, suggesting that new launches need to appeal to all ages to avoid failure Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Two studies provide estimates of the upper range of incidence of first-time (brand and UPC) purchases, claimed reasons for these new purchases, and consumer profiles of first-time brand buyers. Study 1 analyzes three years of transaction data from 10,000 loyalty card members; Study 2 reports on 510 mall-intercept interviews in two different stores. Despite the vast range of items available in modern supermarkets, new brand purchasing is not particularly common: new brands constitute about 5% of items in a basket and are purchased on about 1/3 of shopping trips. The majority of these new-to-consumer purchases have been prompted by in-store stimuli (noticing new brands, price promotions and stock-outs). Interestingly, demographic characteristics between first-time and existing buyers did not differ. Providing further evidence to the habitual nature of grocery shopping, the results indicate limited opportunities to expand/change consumer repertoires suggesting the need for ongoing marketing activities for FMCGs. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

When purchasing packaged products within a supermarket, consumers choose between proprietary or private label brands. However, when purchasing fresh fruits and vegetables, non-branded produce is the dominant option—with proprietary and private label brands only recently becoming available. Previous fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) research finds that proprietary and private label brands affect consumer loyalty—however, no research exists for fresh categories. This research is the first to determine the effect of emerging brands in fresh categories on consumer buying behavior. Our research examines consumers’ loyalty toward proprietary, private label, or non-branded fresh fruits and vegetables and the level of customer sharing between these options, using analytical approaches applicable to FMCG categories. The panel data contains nearly 46,000 households making over 8 million purchases in the United States during 2015. Results show that proprietary, private label, and now non-branded fresh produce have expected loyalty levels, for their size, and consumers share their purchases across the three options (i.e., consumers are not loyal to just one option). The study analyzes and interprets purchase data in fresh categories offering marketing academics and practitioners actionable advice for working with fresh produce purchase data. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Refereed/Peer-reviewed Brands share more of their customers with bigger competitors and fewer with smaller ones. However, there are occasional deviations to this predictable Duplication of Purchase (DoP) pattern. When two or more brands share excess customers because of functional or nonfunctional differences—it is called a partition. While past research using the NBD-Dirichlet model demonstrates partitions in annual or shorter data, there is no empirical evidence for partition persistency over the longer term, although some other NBD-Dirichlet deviations are known to persist over time. Examining expected partitions in 10 consumer goods categories in the United Kingdom, the authors show partitions overwhelmingly persist over 3 years. The findings contribute support to Dirichlet theory, especially on market stability, boundary conditions, and provide practical implications for portfolio management.

This research evaluates how mental availability affects consumer choice of specific branded packaged snacks versus unbranded non-packaged snacks. Mental availability captures the probability of concepts coming to mind when making decisions. Concepts nested within a broad network of memory associations (e.g., those created by marketing for branded packaged goods) are more likely to come to mind and be chosen - potentially disadvantaging unbranded non-packaged foods. However, our research shows that some unbranded non-packaged snacks actually have greater mental availability and are more likely to be chosen, countering concerns over the detrimental effect of marketing food and inadvertently encouraging sub-optimal choices. The effect of mental availability holds when taking into account established drivers of snack food choice, such as hunger, self-control and past behavior. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

'Avocado lover,' 'banana lover,' or 'berry lover' - these words are starting to dominate the contemporary marketing campaigns for fresh fruit and vegetable categories. Such campaigns assume that there are sizable buyer segments who purchase a particular fresh category more frequently, who are contributing a larger portion of sales, and who will continue to do so into the future. Yet, an established body of empirical evidence from consumer packaged goods (CPG) categories suggests that these assumptions could be false. The current study empirically examines fresh category purchasing behavior (through a large Nielsen US panel data) by applying three known models: the Negative Binomial Distribution, the Pareto share, and the stability over time analysis (buyers and sales contribution). This study compares the results and finds that despite many differences between fresh and CPG categories, buyers' purchasing behavior follows the same established benchmarks patterns as those observed in CPG contexts. There are many more infrequent or light buyers than heavy 'lovers'; the heavy buyers contribute roughly 60% of sales; they are purchasing less frequently, and contributing fewer sales as time goes by. These findings carry important implications for marketers, retailers, and farmers of fresh categories. Specifically, the results show which marketing campaigns (i.e., those highly targeted at 'lovers' or those with a mass marketing appeal) are better grounded in the empirical evidence about buyer behavior which has the highest probability of increasing consumption. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

This paper investigates consumer's behavioural loyalty to online supermarkets over time. We use three measures of behavioural loyalty (share of category requirements, repertoire size, and polarisation index) from four major online supermarkets in the UK across five categories. We find that loyalty to online supermarkets is high in the categories we examined, though it declined somewhat from 2005 to 2009 and subsequently remained stable from 2010 to 2014. We also extensively test the generalisability of the well-known Dirichlet model to the choice of online supermarkets. We find that the model gives better fit from 2010 to 2014 than from 2005 to 2009 and can describe loyalty and competition in this context. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Outdoor advertising is criticized for its lack of verified reach, and the few existing measurement technique shave not been validated. The use of Bluetooth logging has been applied successfully to tracking human movement, which demonstrates its potential for measuring the reach of outdoor advertising. Bluetooth can provide researchers with a method of obtaining unique and anonymous IDs for passersby, which leads to detailed measurements for the frequency and reach of outdoor advertising. A proof of concept using a single outdoor advertisement is provided, although the method could be expanded to multiple sites and for longer durations. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

This paper describes the patterns discovered in fruit and vegetable buying behaviour in the United States and India. Using claimed buying data obtained from online questionnaires, it compares the patterns against those found extensively in consumer goods categories across the world. This study analyses consumer loyalty with Double Jeopardy, consumer sharing with Duplication of Purchase and brand user profiles with Mean Absolute Deviations. The results show the buying behaviour patterns of Double Jeopardy, Duplication of Purchase and that brand user profiles exist within the fruit and vegetable categories. The implications of these findings are: (1) that the size of fruit and vegetable brands are largely determined by how many people buy them and not how loyal those consumers are; (2) fruit and vegetable brands share consumers with one another; and (3) fruit and vegetable brands are not purchased by unique segments of the population. Therefore, in order to increase the number of people buying fruit and vegetable brands, marketers should focus on increasing their mental and physical availability (i.e. the same strategies used for consumer goods brands). Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Thesis (PhD(Marketing and related studies))--University of South Australia, 2018. Includes bibliographical references (pages 92-102) Brands grow by increasing their penetration among all category buyers. But marketers need to reach younger category buyers, as they might be of greater strategic value. They are often new category buyers who are still forming their repertoires. Once established, habitual buying behaviour means that these repertoires are reasonably stable for a lifetime (Martin, 2008; Bogomolova and Grudinina, 2011). While there is a higher probability of being incorporated into younger category buyers’ repertoires, the task is more difficult, given they are harder reach. They consume fewer minutes of television (Holz and Leonard, 2010) and read fewer newspapers (Moore and Stephens, 1975). So, this thesis looks at whether younger category buyers might be of strategic value, and then looks at how to reach them with advertising. Specifically, this thesis contributes the new knowledge: are younger category buyers more important than other category buyers for a sub-brand’s growth trajectory; can a medium that skews towards younger category buyers provide high levels of reach; will within medium net-reach estimates be more accurate when accounting for differences in the age of audiences.

Purpose Increasing and maintaining the population’s consumption of healthful food may hinder the global obesity pandemic. The purpose of this paper is to empirically test whether it is possible for healthful sub-brands to achieve higher consumer behavioural loyalty than their less healthful counterparts. Design/methodology/approach The study analysed three years of consumer panel data detailing all purchases from five consumer goods categories for 15,000 UK households. The analysis uses best-practice techniques for measuring behavioural loyalty: double jeopardy, polarisation index, duplication of purchase and user profile comparisons. Each sub-brand’s healthfulness was objectively coded. Findings Despite the level of healthfulness, all sub-brands have predictable repeat purchase patterns, share customers as expected and have similar user profiles as each other. The size of the customer base, not nutrition content, is, by far, the biggest determinant of loyalty levels. Research limitations/implications Consumers do not show higher levels of loyalty to healthful sub-brands, or groups of healthful sub-brands. Nor do they buy less healthful sub-brands less often (as a “treat”). There are also no sub-groups of (health conscious) consumers who would only purchase healthful options. Practical implications Sub-brands do not have extraordinarily loyal or disloyal customers because of their healthfulness. Marketers need to focus on growing sub-brands by increasing their customer base, which will then naturally grow consumer loyalty towards them. Originality/value This research brings novel evidence-based knowledge to an emerging cross-disciplinary area of health marketing. This is the first study comparing behavioural loyalty and user profiles towards objectively defined healthful/less healthful sub-brands.

This study tests and extends the discovery that competing brand user profiles are broadly similar, specifically investigating the consistency of this pattern over time. Examining 700 brands in more than 60 consumer packaged goods categories, for more than 160 variables, the authors document not only that brand user profiles seldom differ but also that they seldom change much over 3 to 6 years. These findings have important implications for marketing theory and practice. For example, marketers need to focus mostly on who buys the category and what features they demand as opposed to thinking their brand buyers are very different to those of competitive brands. This paper extends the empirical results of prior brand profile findings, demonstrating their robustness and durability. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Fruits and vegetables are essential components of a healthy diet. The numerous health and economic benefits of increasing fruit and vegetable consumption call for using the best cross disciplinary research approaches. This paper explores whether empirically proven buying behaviour models from packaged foods studies could also be of use in analysing consumer purchasing of fresh apples and tomatoes. The study examined over 400,000 purchases across three years in Australia. The findings show that fruit and vegetable varieties follow the same predictable repeat-purchasing patterns as packaged foods; specifically, there are many more buyers who purchase a particular variety or type only occasionally, with many who do not purchase at all during a period. The implication is that marketing campaigns for particular varieties or types that focus on increasing customer penetration, rather than loyalty, will achieve stronger brand and category growth for fresh produce, enabling healthier diets. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

There are many different paths that retail customers may take to complete a purchase, such as using only physical stores, browsing online before purchasing offline, or browsing and purchasing online. This study investigates how browsing and purchase behaviour evolve across purchase occasions, and how marketers may influence this evolution. Hidden Markov Models reveal three online browsing states, and three purchase states, and model the effect of emails and catalogues from a brand and its competitors on transitions between these states. We find a number of similarities across brands in the way browsing and purchase behaviours evolve, and the influence of marketing communications. However, we also find differences due to the separate channel and marketing strategies of the brands. These results build on existing channel migration literature by incorporating browsing behaviour and providing a comparison across brands, and provide marketers insights to develop strategies to influence how consumer behaviour evolves. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Obesity is a global pandemic; the primary cause being poor diets abundant in high sugar and fat foods. Daily consumption of a healthy breakfast is associated with improved health outcomes. In this study, we seek to determine whether healthier brands of breakfast cereal, attract higher levels of loyalty than less healthy counterparts. We use three years of real purchase data in the UK and three calculations: Mean Absolute Deviation, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and a correlation. Our results replicate and extend the findings of Sjostrom et al. (2014)addressing its limitations in the choice of SKUs and using manufacturer-claimed“light”/”regular” classification of healthfulness. Using the objective Nutrient Profiling Model we identify that consumers tend to buy healthier brands slightly more often than expected based on the brand size. These findings have positive implications from healthier brands manufacturers perspective, suggesting there is a trend towards healthier breakfast consumption Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Thesis (Masters by research)--University of South Australia, 2014. Includes bibliographical references (pages 131-136) The purpose of this research is to describe the behaviour of online shoppers. How much time they take selecting an item, how many pages they view, which page they select from and which display settings and navigational tools they use throughout their shops. The behaviour of shoppers will be compared between competing online retailers. This will determine if varied online shopping interfaces impact behaviour. Previous literature also suggests that younger shoppers are more likely to adopt online shopping first and therefore comparisons between demographic groups will also be analysed.

Over the years, shelf space has been one of the best predictors of brand sales in grocery categories (and of course best - sellers tend to obtain good shelf allocation) . However, s upermarkets have a limited and relatively fixed amount of shelving making it a scarc e and va luable resource. Particular problem areas include manufactures and supermarkets using planograms as a design for store display management and to aid in maximising profits . Based on planograms, information regarding a product’s height , weight and position can be combined with scanner data to pro vide valuable insights into supermarket shelves, in particularly the impact of position. Using a Many Sets of Data approach , this paper proposes across categor y and market s research to increase the kno wledge in the shelf positioning. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

The Duplication of Purchase Law summarises an established empirical pattern that competing brands share customers in line with their market share. However, sometimes deviations from expected sharing occur, indicating a partition. Partitions are formed by a set of brands sharing more than expected with each other. This research aims to document the consistency (or lack of) for such partitions. TNS Superpanel data is used for two product categories over three years. We find that partitions in both markets are consistent across time. Partition analyses can underpin market structure strategy decisions as a result. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

The Duplication of Purchase Law summarises an established empirical pattern that competing brands share customers in line with their market share. However, sometimes deviations from expected sharing occur, indicating a partition. Partitions are formed by a set of brands sharing more than expected with each other. This research aims to document the consistency (or lack of) for such partitions. TNS Superpanel data is used for two product categories ov er three years. We find that partitions in both markets are consistent across time. Partition analyses can underpin market structure strategy decisions as a result. Refereed/Peer-reviewed