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Background Tobacco smoking is estimated to account for more than 1 million annual deaths in China, and the epidemic continues to increase in men. Large nationwide prospective studies linked to different health records can help to periodically assess disease burden attributed to smoking. We aimed to examine associations of smoking with incidence of and mortality from an extensive range of diseases in China. Methods We analysed data from the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank, which recruited 512 726 adults aged 30–79 years, of whom 210 201 were men and 302 525 were women. Participants who had no major disabilities were identified through local residential records in 100–150 administrative units, which were randomly selected by use of multistage cluster sampling, from each of the ten diverse study areas of China. They were invited and recruited between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008. Upon study entry, trained health workers administered a questionnaire assessing detailed smoking behaviours and other key characteristics (eg, sociodemographics, lifestyle, and medical history). Participants were followed up via electronic record linkages to death and disease registries and health insurance databases, from baseline to Jan 1, 2018. During a median 11-year follow-up (IQR 10–12), 285 542 (55·7%) participants were ever hospitalised, 48 869 (9·5%) died, and 5252 (1·0%) were lost to follow-up during the age-at-risk of 35–84 years. Cox regression yielded hazard ratios (HRs) associating smoking with disease incidence and mortality, adjusting for multiple testing. Findings At baseline, 74·3% of men and 3·2% of women (overall 32·4%) ever smoked regularly. During follow-up, 1 137 603 International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10)-coded incident events occurred, involving 476 distinct conditions and 85 causes of death, each with at least 100 cases. Compared with never-regular smokers, ever-regular smokers had significantly higher risks for nine of 18 ICD-10 chapters examined at age-at-risk of 35–84 years. For individual conditions, smokers had significantly higher risks of 56 diseases (50 for men and 24 for women) and 22 causes of death (17 for men and nine for women). Among men, ever-regular smokers had an HR of 1·09 (95% CI 1·08–1·11) for any disease incidence when compared with never-regular smokers, and significantly more episodes and longer duration of hospitalisation, particularly those due to cancer and respiratory diseases. For overall mortality, the HRs were greater in men from urban areas than in men from rural areas (1·50 [1·42–1·58] vs 1·25 [1·20–1·30]). Among men from urban areas who began smoking at younger than 18 years, the HRs were 2·06 (1·89–2·24) for overall mortality and 1·32 (1·27–1·37) for any disease incidence. In this population, 19·6% of male (24·3% of men residing in urban settings and 16·2% of men residing in rural settings) and 2·8% of female deaths were attributed to ever-regular smoking. Interpretation Among Chinese adults, smoking was associated with higher risks of morbidity and mortality from a wide range of diseases. Among men, the future smoking-attributed disease burden will increase further, highlighting a pressing need for reducing consumption through widespread cessation and uptake prevention. Funding British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Wellcome Trust.

IntroductionAmong individuals with diabetes, high adiposity has been associated with lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality (the so-called ‘obesity paradox’ phenomenon) in Western populations, for reasons that are still not fully elucidated. Moreover, little is known about such phenomena in Chinese adults with diabetes among whom very few were obese. We aimed to assess the associations of adiposity with vascular and non-vascular mortality among individuals with diabetes, and compare these with associations among individuals without diabetes.Research design and methodsIn 2004–2008, the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank recruited >512 000 adults from 10 areas in China. After ~10 years of follow-up, 3509 deaths (1431 from CVD) were recorded among 23 842 individuals with diabetes but without prior major diseases at baseline. Cox regression yielded adjusted HRs associating adiposity with mortality.ResultsAmong people with diabetes, body mass index (BMI) (mean 25.0 kg/m2) was positively log linearly associated with CVD incidence (n=9943; HR=1.19 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.22) per 5 kg/m2), but showed U-shaped associations with CVD and overall mortality, with lowest risk at 22.5–24.9 kg/m2. At lower BMI, risk of death (n=671) within 28 days of CVD onset was particularly elevated, with an HR of 3.26 (95% CI 2.29 to 4.65) at 2 relative to 22.5–24.9 kg/m2, but no higher mortality risk at BMI ≥25.0 kg/m2. These associations were similar in self-reported and screen-detected diabetes, and persisted after extensive attempts to address reverse causality and confounding. Among individuals without diabetes (mean BMI 23.6 kg/m2; n=23 305 deaths), there were less extreme excess mortality risks at low BMI.ConclusionsAmong relatively lean Chinese adults with diabetes, there were contrasting associations of adiposity with CVD incidence and with mortality. The high mortality risk at low and high BMI levels highlights, if causal, the importance of maintaining normal weight among people with diabetes.

Background and aims Observational studies have associated resting heart rate with incident diabetes. Whether the associations are causal remains unclear. We aimed to examine the shape and strength of the associations and assessed the causal relevance of such associations in Chinese adults. Methods and results The China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512,891 adults in China. Cox proportional hazard regression models was conducted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the associations of resting heart rate with type 2 diabetes and total diabetes. Among 92,724 participants, 36 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related to resting heart rate were used to construct genetic risk score. We used Mendelian randomization analyses to make the causal inferences. During a median follow-up of 9 years, 7872 incident type 2 diabetes and 13,349 incident total diabetes were documented. After regression dilution bias adjustment, each 10 bpm higher heart rate was associated with about a 26% higher risk of type 2 diabetes (HR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.23, 1.29]) and 23% higher risk of total diabetes (HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.20, 1.26]). Instrumental variable analyses showed participants at top quintile compared with those at bottom quintile had 30% higher risk for type 2 diabetes (HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.17, 1.43]), and 10% higher risk for total diabetes (HR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.02, 1.20]). Conclusions This study provides evidence that resting heart rate is an important risk factor for diabetes risk. The results suggest that novel treatment approaches targeting reduction of high heart rate for incidence of diabetes may be worth further investigation.

Background: Adiposity is a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, uncertainty remains about its relevance for mortality following incident CVD, particularly among individuals with diabetes. Methods: In 2004-08 the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank recruited 512,000 adults aged 30-79 years from 10 areas in China. After ~9 years’ follow-up, 3509 deaths (1431 from CVD) and 9940 incident CVD were recorded among 23,842 individuals with diabetes but without prior major diseases. Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) associating adiposity with disease outcomes. Findings: Among people with diabetes (mean baseline BMI 25.0 kg/m2), BMI was positively associated with CVD incidence (HR=1.19 [95% CI 1.15-1.22] per 5 kg/m2), but there was a U-shaped association with CVD mortality, with the lowest risk at 22.5-24.9 kg/m2. Case fatality following CVD onset (deaths occurring within 28 days, n=671) at lower BMI was particularly marked with HR of 3.32 (2.33-4.73) at

In China, the incidence of pancreatic cancer (PC) has increased in recent decades. However, little is known about the relevance to PC risk of lifestyle and behavioral factors such as smoking, alcohol drinking, and diet. The China Kadoorie Biobank prospective study recruited 512,891 adults (210,222 men, 302,669 women) aged 30–79 (mean 52) years from 10 diverse areas during 2004–08. During ~9 years of follow‐up, 688 incident cases of PC were recorded among those who had no prior history of cancer at baseline. Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for PC associated with smoking, alcohol and selected dietary factors. Overall, 74% of men were ever‐regular smokers and 33% of men drank at least weekly, compared with only 3% and 2% of women, respectively. Among men, current regular smoking was associated with an adjusted HR of 1.25 (95% CI 1.08–1.44) for PC, with greater excess risk in urban than rural areas (1.46 [1.19–1.79] vs 1.04 [0.86–1.26]). Heavy, but not light to moderate, alcohol drinking (i.e. ≥420 g/week) was associated with significant excess risk (1.69 [1.21–2.37]), again more extreme in urban than rural areas (1.93 [1.29–2.87] vs 1.35 [0.74–2.48]). Overall, regular consumption of certain foodstuffs was associated with PC risk, with adjusted daily vs never/rare consumption HRs of 0.66 (0.56–0.79) for fresh fruit and 1.16 (1.01–1.33) for red meat. In China, smoking and heavy alcohol drinking were independent risk factors for PC in men. Lower fresh fruit and higher red meat consumption were also associated with higher risk of PC.

OBJECTIVE We assess associations of general and central adiposity in middle age and of young adulthood adiposity with incident diabetes in adult Chinese and estimate the associated population burden of diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512,891 adults 30–79 years of age from 10 localities across China during 2004–2008. During 9.2 years of follow-up, 13,416 cases of diabetes were recorded among 482,589 participants without diabetes at baseline. Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for incident diabetes associated with measures of general (e.g., BMI and BMI at 25 years) and central (e.g., waist circumference [WC]) adiposity. RESULTS The mean (SD) BMI was 23.6 kg/m2 (3.4 kg/m2), and 3.8% had a BMI ≥30 kg/m2. Throughout the range examined (19–32 kg/m2), BMI showed a positive log-linear relationship with diabetes, with adjusted HRs per SD higher usual BMI greater in men (1.98; 95% CI 1.93–2.04) than in women (1.77; 1.73–1.81) (P for heterogeneity CONCLUSIONS Among relatively lean Chinese adults, higher adiposity—general and central—was strongly positively associated with the risk of incident diabetes. The predicted continuing increase in adiposity in China foreshadows escalating rates of diabetes.

Summary Background Chinese men now smoke more than a third of the world's cigarettes, following a large increase in urban then rural usage. Conversely, Chinese women now smoke far less than in previous generations. We assess the oppositely changing effects of tobacco on male and female mortality. Methods Two nationwide prospective studies 15 years apart recruited 220 000 men in about 1991 at ages 40–79 years (first study) and 210 000 men and 300 000 women in about 2006 at ages 35–74 years (second study), with follow-up during 1991–99 (mid-year 1995) and 2006–14 (mid-year 2010), respectively. Cox regression yielded sex-specific adjusted mortality rate ratios (RRs) comparing smokers (including any who had stopped because of illness, but not the other ex-smokers, who are described as having stopped by choice) versus never-smokers. Findings Two-thirds of the men smoked; there was little dependence of male smoking prevalence on age, but many smokers had not smoked cigarettes throughout adult life. Comparing men born before and since 1950, in the older generation, the age at which smoking had started was later and, particularly in rural areas, lifelong exclusive cigarette use was less common than in the younger generation. Comparing male mortality RRs in the first study (mid-year 1995) versus those in the second study (mid-year 2010), the proportional excess risk among smokers (RR-1) approximately doubled over this 15-year period (urban: RR 1·32 [95% CI 1·24–1·41] vs 1·65 [1·53–1·79]; rural: RR 1·13 [1·09–1·17] vs 1·22 [1·16–1·29]), as did the smoking-attributed fraction of deaths at ages 40–79 years (urban: 17% vs 26%; rural: 9% vs 14%). In the second study, urban male smokers who had started before age 20 years (which is now typical among both urban and rural young men) had twice the never-smoker mortality rate (RR 1·98, 1·79–2·19, approaching Western RRs), with substantial excess mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD RR 9·09, 5·11–16·15), lung cancer (RR 3·78, 2·78–5·14), and ischaemic stroke or ischaemic heart disease (combined RR 2·03, 1·66–2·47). Ex-smokers who had stopped by choice (only 3% of ever-smokers in 1991, but 9% in 2006) had little smoking-attributed risk more than 10 years after stopping. Among Chinese women, however, there has been a tenfold intergenerational reduction in smoking uptake rates. In the second study, among women born in the 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, and since 1960 the proportions who had smoked were, respectively, 10%, 5%, 2%, and 1% (3097/30 943, 3265/62 246, 2339/97 344, and 1068/111 933). The smoker versus non-smoker RR of 1·51 (1·40–1·63) for all female mortality at ages 40–79 years accounted for 5%, 3%, 1%, and

Summary Background China has high stroke rates despite the population being relatively lean. Uncertainty persists about the relevance of adiposity to risk of stroke types. We aimed to assess the associations of adiposity with incidence of stroke types and effect mediation by blood pressure in Chinese men and women. Methods The China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512 891 adults aged 30–79 years from ten areas (five urban and five rural) during 2004–08. During a median 9 years (IQR 8–10) of follow-up, 32 448 strokes (about 90% confirmed by neuroimaging) were recorded among 489 301 participants without previous cardiovascular disease. Cox regression analysis was used to produce adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for ischaemic stroke (n=25 210) and intracerebral haemorrhage (n=5380) associated with adiposity. Findings Mean baseline body-mass index (BMI) was 23·6 kg/m2 (SD 3·2), and 331 723 (67·8%) participants had a BMI of less than 25 kg/m2. Throughout the range examined (mean 17·1 kg/m2 [SD 0·9] to 31·7 kg/m2 [2·0]), each 5 kg/m2 higher BMI was associated with 8·3 mm Hg (SE 0·04) higher systolic blood pressure. BMI was positively associated with ischaemic stroke, with an HR of 1·30 (95% CI 1·28–1·33 per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI), which was generally consistent with that predicted by equivalent differences in systolic blood pressure (1·25 [1·24–1·26]). The HR for intracerebral haemorrhage (1·11 [1·07–1·16] per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI) was less extreme, and much weaker than that predicted by the corresponding difference in systolic blood pressure (1·48 [1·46–1·50]). Other adiposity measures showed similar associations with stroke types. After adjustment for usual systolic blood pressure, the positive associations with ischaemic stroke were attenuated (1·05 [1·03–1·07] per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI); for intracerebral haemorrhage, they were reversed (0·73 [0·70–0·77]). High adiposity (BMI >23 kg/m2) accounted for 14·7% of total stroke (16·5% of ischaemic stroke and 6·7% of intracerebral haemorrhage). Interpretation In Chinese adults, adiposity was strongly positively associated with ischaemic stroke, chiefly through its effect on blood pressure. For intracerebral haemorrhage, leanness, either per se or through some other factor (or factors), might increase risk, offsetting the protective effects of lower blood pressure. Funding UK Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Chinese National Natural Science Foundation.

Background Self‐rated health ( SRH ) is a strong predictor of mortality in different populations. However, the associations between SRH measures and risk of ischemic heart disease ( IHD ) have not been extensively explored, especially in a Chinese population. Methods and Results More than 500 000 adults from 10 cities in China were followed from baseline (2004–2008) through December 31, 2013. Global and age‐comparative SRH were reported from baseline questionnaires. Incident IHD cases were identified through links to well‐established disease registry systems and the national health insurance system. During 3 423 542 person‐years of follow‐up, we identified 24 705 incident cases of IHD . In multivariable‐adjusted models, both global and age‐comparative SRH was significantly associated with incident IHD . Compared with excellent SRH , the hazard ratios for good, fair, and poor SRH were 1.02 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98–1.07), 1.32 (95% CI, 1.27–1.37), and 1.76 (95% CI, 1.68–1.85), respectively. Compared with better age‐comparative SRH , the hazard ratios for same and worse age‐comparative SRH were 1.23 (95% CI, 1.19–1.27) and 1.78 (95% CI, 1.70–1.86), respectively. The associations persisted in all subgroup analyses, although they were slightly modified by study location, education, and income levels. Conclusions A simple questionnaire for self‐assessment of health status was significantly associated with incident IHD in Chinese adults. Individuals and healthcare providers can use SRH measures as a convenient tool for assessing future IHD risk.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to a combination of healthy lifestyle factors has been related to a considerable reduction of cardiovascular risk in white populations; however, little is known whether such associations persist in nonwhite populations like the Asian population. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to examine the associations of a combination of modifiable, healthy lifestyle factors with the risks of ischemic cardiovascular diseases and estimate the proportion of diseases that could potentially be prevented by adherence to these healthy lifestyle patterns. METHODS: This study examined the associations of 6 lifestyle factors with ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke (IS) in the China Kadoorie Biobank of 461,211 participants 30 to 79 years of age who did not have cardiovascular diseases, cancer, or diabetes at baseline. Low-risk lifestyle factors were defined as nonsmoking status or having stopped smoking for reasons other than illness, alcohol consumption of

Diabetes is associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer (PC) in Western populations. Uncertainty remains, however, about the relevance of plasma glucose for PC among people without diabetes and about the associations of diabetes and high blood glucose with PC in China where the increase in diabetes prevalence has been very recent. The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) study recruited 512,000 adults aged 30‐79 years from 10 diverse areas of China during 2004‐2008, recording 595 PC cases during 8 years of follow‐up. Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for PC associated with diabetes (previously diagnosed or screen‐detected) and, among those without previously diagnosed diabetes, with levels of random plasma glucose (RPG). These were further meta‐analysed with 22 published prospective studies. Overall 5.8% of CKB participants had diabetes at baseline. Diabetes was associated with almost twofold increased risk of PC (adjusted HR = 1.87, 95% CI 1.48‐2.37), with excess risk higher in those with longer duration since diagnosis (p for trend = 0.01). Among those without previously diagnosed diabetes, each 1 mmol/L higher usual RPG was associated with a HR of 1.12 (1.04‐1.21). In meta‐analysis of CKB and 22 other studies, previously diagnosed diabetes was associated with a 52% excess risk (1.52, 1.43‐1.63). Among those without diabetes, each 1 mmol/L higher blood glucose was associated with a 15% (1.15, 1.09‐1.21) excess risk. In Chinese and non‐Chinese populations, diabetes and higher blood glucose levels among those without diabetes are associated with an increased risk of PC., What's new? Diabetes is associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer (PC) in Western populations, but uncertainty remains about the relevance of plasma glucose among people without diabetes. In this first prospective study investigating the association of diabetes with PC risk in China, where the increase in diabetes prevalence has been very recent, diabetes was associated with an almost twofold increased risk of PC, with random plasma glucose being positively associated with PC risk among participants without prior diagnosis of diabetes. In meta‐analysis, the results were consistent with previous evidence in Western populations, highlighting diabetes as a potential aetiological factor of PC.

Importance In China, diabetes prevalence has increased substantially in recent decades, but there are no reliable estimates of the excess mortality currently associated with diabetes. Objectives To assess the proportional excess mortality associated with diabetes and estimate the diabetes-related absolute excess mortality in rural and urban areas of China. Design, Setting, and Participants A 7-year nationwide prospective study of 512 869 adults aged 30 to 79 years from 10 (5 rural and 5 urban) regions in China, who were recruited between June 2004 and July 2008 and were followed up until January 2014. Exposures Diabetes (previously diagnosed or detected by screening) recorded at baseline. Main Outcomes and Measures All-cause and cause-specific mortality, collected through established death registries. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted mortality rate ratio (RR) comparing individuals with diabetes vs those without diabetes at baseline. Results Among the 512 869 participants, the mean (SD) age was 51.5 (10.7) years, 59% (n = 302 618) were women, and 5.9% (n = 30 280) had diabetes (4.1% in rural areas, 8.1% in urban areas, 5.8% of men, 6.1% of women, 3.1% had been previously diagnosed, and 2.8% were detected by screening). During 3.64 million person-years of follow-up, there were 24 909 deaths, including 3384 among individuals with diabetes. Compared with adults without diabetes, individuals with diabetes had a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality (1373 vs 646 deaths per 100 000; adjusted RR, 2.00 [95% CI, 1.93-2.08]), which was higher in rural areas than in urban areas (rural RR, 2.17 [95% CI, 2.07-2.29]; urban RR, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.73-1.94]). Presence of diabetes was associated with increased mortality from ischemic heart disease (3287 deaths; RR, 2.40 [95% CI, 2.19-2.63]), stroke (4444 deaths; RR, 1.98 [95% CI, 1.81-2.17]), chronic liver disease (481 deaths; RR, 2.32 [95% CI, 1.76-3.06]), infections (425 deaths; RR, 2.29 [95% CI, 1.76-2.99]), and cancer of the liver (1325 deaths; RR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.28-1.86]), pancreas (357 deaths; RR, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.35-2.51]), female breast (217 deaths; RR, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.24-2.74]), and female reproductive system (210 deaths; RR, 1.81 [95% CI, 1.20-2.74]). For chronic kidney disease (365 deaths), the RR was higher in rural areas (18.69 [95% CI, 14.22-24.57]) than in urban areas (6.83 [95% CI, 4.73-9.88]). Among those with diabetes, 10% of all deaths (16% rural; 4% urban) were due to definite or probable diabetic ketoacidosis or coma (408 deaths). Conclusions and Relevance Among adults in China, diabetes was associated with increased mortality from a range of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular diseases. Although diabetes was more common in urban areas, it was associated with greater excess mortality in rural areas.

Aims/hypothesis Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have discovered many risk variants for type 2 diabetes. However, estimates of the contributions of risk variants to type 2 diabetes predisposition are often based on highly selected case–control samples, and reliable estimates of population-level effect sizes are missing, especially in non-European populations. Methods The individual and cumulative effects of 59 established type 2 diabetes risk loci were measured in a population-based China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) study of 93,000 Chinese adults, including >7,100 diabetes cases. Results Association signals were directionally consistent between CKB and the original discovery GWAS: of 56 variants passing quality control, 48 showed the same direction of effect (binomial test, p = 2.3 × 10−8). We observed a consistent overall trend towards lower risk variant effect sizes in CKB than in case–control samples of GWAS meta-analyses (mean 19–22% decrease in log odds, p ≤ 0.0048), likely to reflect correction of both ‘winner’s curse’ and spectrum bias effects. The association with risk of diabetes of a genetic risk score, based on lead variants at 25 loci considered to act through beta cell function, demonstrated significant interactions with several measures of adiposity (BMI, waist circumference [WC], WHR and percentage body fat [PBF]; all pinteraction