1. COVID-19 susceptibility and severity risks in a cross-sectional survey of over 500 000 US adults
- Author
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Yong Wang, Robert Burton, Cecily Vaughn, Miao Zhang, Brooke Rhead, Heather Harris, Spencer C Knight, Shannon R McCurdy, Marie V Coignet, Danny S Park, Genevieve H L Roberts, Nathan D Berkowitz, David Turissini, Karen Delgado, Milos Pavlovic, Asher K Haug Baltzell, Harendra Guturu, Kristin A Rand, Ahna R Girshick, Eurie L Hong, Catherine A Ball, Yambazi Banda, Ke Bi, Marjan Champine, Ross Curtis, Abby Drokhlyansky, Ashley Elrick, Cat Foo, Michael Gaddis, Jialiang Gu, Shannon Hateley, Shea King, Christine Maldonado, Evan McCartney-Melstad, Alexandra McFarland, Patty Miller, Luong Nguyen, Keith Noto, Jingwen Pei, Jenna Petersen, Scott Pew, Chodon Sass, Josh Schraiber, Alisa Sedghifar, Andrey Smelter, Sarah South, and Barry Starr
- Subjects
Medicine - Abstract
Objectives The enormous toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the urgency of collecting and analysing population-scale datasets in real time to monitor and better understand the evolving pandemic. The objectives of this study were to examine the relationship of risk factors to COVID-19 susceptibility and severity and to develop risk models to accurately predict COVID-19 outcomes using rapidly obtained self-reported data.Design A cross-sectional study.Setting AncestryDNA customers in the USA who consented to research.Participants The AncestryDNA COVID-19 Study collected self-reported survey data on symptoms, outcomes, risk factors and exposures for over 563 000 adult individuals in the USA in just under 4 months, including over 4700 COVID-19 cases as measured by a self-reported positive test.Results We replicated previously reported associations between several risk factors and COVID-19 susceptibility and severity outcomes, and additionally found that differences in known exposures accounted for many of the susceptibility associations. A notable exception was elevated susceptibility for men even after adjusting for known exposures and age (adjusted OR=1.36, 95% CI=1.19 to 1.55). We also demonstrated that self-reported data can be used to build accurate risk models to predict individualised COVID-19 susceptibility (area under the curve (AUC)=0.84) and severity outcomes including hospitalisation and critical illness (AUC=0.87 and 0.90, respectively). The risk models achieved robust discriminative performance across different age, sex and genetic ancestry groups within the study.Conclusions The results highlight the value of self-reported epidemiological data to rapidly provide public health insights into the evolving COVID-19 pandemic.
- Published
- 2022
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