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Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies hold the potential to become critical force multipliers in future armed conflicts. The People's Republic of China has identified AI as key to enhancing its national competitiveness and security. If its current AI plan is successful, China will achieve a substantial military advantage over the United States and its allies. That has significant negative strategic implications for the United States.

Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on September 9, 2020.

History suggests that the most probable consequence of the Singapore Summit will be difficult and lengthy negotiation followed by slow and inadequate compliance, quite possibly on both sides.

In mid-June 2017, Bhutanese authorities detected Chinese personnel, presumably members of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), building a road in a disputed region of the Doklam plateau near the Bhu...

In recent years, the South China Sea appears to be on a ‘slow boil.’ Tensions simmer and occasionally bubble up, creating turbulence before the waters return to a more gentle bubble. What strategy is being pursued by the most powerful party to the South China Sea dispute? What is the best way forward for this chronic flashpoint? This chapter offers an overview of the power play in the South China Sea and sketches out an overall approach to dispute management in the region.

North Korea's ongoing development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles increases the possibility of their use against regional states, furthering instability across the region and beyond. This toolkit provides visualizations illuminating four Korea-related problems: North Korea's nuclear arsenal, North Korean artillery systems, evacuating South Korean population centers, and securing North Korean nuclear weapons and facilities.

China's rise to prominence in Asia has been both dramatic and seemingly inexorable. The country has significantly expanded its economic and diplomatic involvement and considerably extended its military reach. However, despite growing hard power and greater global presence, Beijing feels vulnerable and has very few reliable partners. Within this context China's close and enduring friendship with Pakistan stands out. Indeed, as Andrew Small astutely observes in the opening sentence of The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics, Beijing's ties with Islamabad have "run closer than most formal alliances" (p. 1). In this impressive book, Small outlines in considerable detail the main contours of this fascinating and secretive relationship.While all states are dysfunctional to some degree, China and Pakistan appear to be defined by the extreme nature of their respective dysfunctionalities. In addition, judging from Small's analysis, their relationship is itself highly dysfunctional. In psychology, codependency is defined as a pathological relationship where two parties are dependent on each other to an unhealthy degree. Each party has feelings of extreme insecurity and fears being alone. This condition appears to have defined the China-Pakistan relationship since the 1960s. Both Beijing and Islamabad suffer from high anxiety and believe they have a dearth of trustworthy friends in other capitals. Accordingly, each side views this partnership as essential to maintaining its own national security. Implicit in The China-Pakistan Axis is the idea that codependency is an apt diagnosis of the partnership's dysfunctionality, or at least that significant elements of this condition apply. Whether the author concurs with this characterization, it does seem consistent with his reference to Chinese and Pakistani "pathologies" in their foreign relationships (p. 7).China has enjoyed a warm relationship with Pakistan since the 1960s, with the leaders of both countries often referring to the bilateral relationship as an "all-weather friendship." It considers Pakistan a pivotal state that will decisively influence the course of events in surrounding countries, notably Afghanistan. Moreover, Beijing also thinks of Islamabad as a longtime but deeply troubled ally on a geostrategic fault line between South and Central Asia-a region where China has had few friends. Yet Beijing's support has become more restrained than in the past as Pakistan has gradually declined in overall geopolitical significance. Although Pakistan is still an important partner and a major arms market for Chinese defense firms, its value as a conduit to the Islamic world or facilitator on the global stage has been greatly reduced. In the 21st century, China has robust relationships with every country in the Middle East and globally has full diplomatic ties with all but 22 microstates. In particular, India looms ever larger as a major economic partner for China. As a result, China's interests in Pakistan are increasingly regional and aimed at restraining Islamabad. And yet despite these developments, Islamabad continues to be Beijing's key capital in South Asia precisely because it is a counterweight to New Delhi.Labeling the China-Pakistan relationship an "axis" is controversial. Yet Small's meticulous research suggests the term is appropriate to characterize this rather unique partnership. At least in terms of cooperative relationships, China has maintained few enduring friendships. After all, the country has tended to not play well with others. Formal alliances, such as with the Soviet Union, ended badly, and China's relationship with its sole remaining official treaty ally-North Korea-has been extremely tumultuous across the decades. Beijing's ties to another erstwhile Communist comrade in arms-Vietnam-have also been characterized by considerable turmoil, leading to extended border unpleasantries and outright war in 1979. By contrast, Beijing's ties with Islamabad have been remarkably steady, with high levels of security cooperation in the conventional and nuclear spheres. …

The South China Sea has emerged as one of the most contentious issues in US–China relations. Tensions in this body of water have long simmered but during the second decade of the 21st century the South China Sea has risen to a slow boil. What explains the remarkable elevation of this flashpoint above other traditional Asia-Pacific flashpoints? What is the current situation and what does the future portend? In the South China Sea the United States and China each perceives the stakes to be high and escalation potential low. However, heightened geopolitical rivalry between the two countries can easily lead to increased bilateral tensions and greater likelihood of unintended military conflict.

Since 2001, China has warily watched the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan and associated footprint in Central Asia. In 2014, Beijing grew alarmed that a U.S. exit would prompt a resurgence of violence and Islamic radicalism in Afghanistan that could spill over into neighboring states, including China.

This chapter outlines Beijing's worldview and how the Middle East fits therein. It explores the four main factors that have elevated the meaning of the Middle East for the People's Republic of China (PRC) over the span of four decades. The PRC is inextricably enmeshed and intertwined with the global economic system. The Middle East has long been an arena of great power rivalry. Since the 1990s, the Middle East has been an essential source of imported energy for China. Beijing's foremost economic interest in the Middle East is stable access to the region's energy resources. Beijing and Riyadh are actively engaged in bilateral cooperation on petrochemical and natural gas projects. Saudi Arabia exports tens of billions of US dollars of these chemicals to China annually. Since the late 1990s, Saudi Arabia and China have conducted billions of dollars of trade annually, exclusive of petroleum and other energy sectors since the late 1990s.