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A new generation of climate science translators (CSTs) is currently evolving, both as independent professionals and affiliated with humanitarian agencies. While people in this role represent an opportunity to foster communication and collaboration between climate science, humanitarian decision-support, policy, and decision-making, there are neither clear job profiles nor established criteria for success. Based on an analysis of job opportunities published on one of the largest humanitarian and development aid job portals, we show that the demand for CSTs has been increasing since 2011. Subsequently, we present a characterization of core skills for the next generation of CSTs aiming to establish a space for not only current CSTs to thrive, but also a path for future translators to follow, with milestones and opportunities for recognition.

Every year riverine flooding affects millions of people in developing countries, due to the large population exposure in the floodplains and the lack of adequate flood protection. Preparedness and monitoring are effective ways to reduce flood risk. State-of-the-art technologies relying on satellite remote sensing as well as numerical hydrological and meteorological predictions can detect and monitor severe flood events at the global scale. This chapter describes the emerging role of the Global Flood Partnership (GFP), a global network of scientists, users, and private and public organizations active in global flood risk management. Currently, a number of GFP partner institutes regularly share results from their experimental products, developed to predict and monitor where and when flooding is taking place in near real time. Products of the GFP have already been used on several occasions by national environmental agencies and humanitarian organizations to support emergency operations and to reduce the overall socioeconomic impacts of disasters. The chapter includes a discussion on existing challenges and ways forward to improve rapid access to flood information and increase resilience to flooding.

Achieving the seventeen United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires accurate, consistent, and accessible population data. Yet many low- and middle-income countries lack reliable or recent census data at the sufficiently fine spatial scales needed to monitor SDG progress. While the increasing abundance of Earth observation-derived gridded population products provides analysis-ready population estimates, end users lack clear use criteria to track SDGs indicators. In fact, recent comparisons of gridded population products identify wide variation across gridded population products. Here we present three case studies to illuminate how gridded population datasets compare in measuring and monitoring SDGs to advance the “fitness for use” guidance. Our focus is on SDG 11.5, which aims to reduce the number of people impacted by disasters. We use five gridded population datasets to measure and map hazard exposure for three case studies: the 2015 earthquake in Nepal, Cyclone Idai in Mozambique, Malawi, and Zimbabwe (MMZ) in 2019, and flash flood susceptibility in Ecuador. First, we map and quantify geographic patterns of agreement/disagreement across gridded population products for Nepal, MMZ, and Ecuador, including delineating urban and rural populations estimates. Second, we quantify the populations exposed to each hazard. Across hazards and geographic contexts, there were marked differences in population estimates across the gridded population datasets. As such, it is key that researchers, practitioners, and end users utilize multiple gridded population datasets—an ensemble approach—to capture uncertainty and/or provide range estimates when using gridded population products to track SDG indicators. To this end, we made available code and globally comprehensive datasets that allows for the intercomparison of gridded population products.

Increasingly, we face compounding and interrelated environmental, socioeconomic, and political crises. Yet our approaches to these problems are often siloed, fragmented, and inadequate. The current pandemic, for instance, continues to collide with a number of other threats to human life and livelihoods. These include violent conflicts, displacement, insect swarms, droughts, heat waves, and structural inequality in the form of racism and gender discrimination. We believe we are at a critical juncture, faced with a need and responsibility to redesign institutions to be proactive, agile, and socially just when confronted with increasingly likely compound risks. We need to redesign institutions to be proactive, agile, and socially just when confronted with compound risks that have become increasingly likely. Image credit: Dave Cutler (artist). Because the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emergency is a protracted crisis that entails waves of infections over several months, the pandemic will inevitably continue to collide with other social and environmental shocks and disruptions, leading to increased risk of compound disasters (1). Globally, we have seen both extended and acute periods of stress on social and government systems driven by the COVID-19 pandemic as well as other natural and social hazards. When coupled with economic shocks, political fragility, and conflicts, these multiple stressors become concurrent drivers of complex emergencies that severely challenge domestic and international emergency response. Such crises present a need to better understand compound risks and prioritize collaborative action—we need to address neglected risk assessment challenges around communication, funding, governance, and social justice (2). Thus, while the world continues to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic, we must draw on existing knowledge and frameworks to ensure that disaster risk management can address compounded risks. We must learn from the current crisis to prepare better resource-deployment strategies, governance directives, and policy responses. These responses, in turn, must connect … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: andrewk{at}iri.columbia.edu. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1

The rainfall regime in the Sahel region in West Africa shows a rise in the extreme rainfall occurrence. During the 2020 rainy season, floods and inundations of unprecedented magnitude have struck almost all the Sahelian countries. Despite this new trend, the local disaster management community still reacts on a response mode, based on an annually updated flood contingency plan. In this work we present the process followed to set-up an Early Action Protocol for riverine flood. Novelty and specificity of this climate service and its co-production process lies in the fact that it's not led by the climate national information providers (meteorological and hydrological agencies), but rather proposed by a user, namely Mali Red Cross Society, with the support of its partners across The Red Cross movement. Working groups (WGs) were established to co-produce the following: participatory mapping of past flood extent linked to historical river flows and vulnerability and exposure analysis for different areas, around the 2 major rivers Niger and Senegal and their tributaries; an impact-based trigger model, taking into account, on a 5 year return period basis, the available river flow monitoring historical analysis of river peaks at the main hydrological stations, the expected impact level, the derived exposure map and vulnerability index; coordination and selection of early actions and intervention map, based on priority impacts, people targeting and feasibility of actions was led by MRCS and its Red Cross partners. After reviewing available tools and capacities, the decision was made to prioritize riverine floods around the two main river basins of Niger and Senegal. In absence of suitable hydrological forecasting models, the agreement was to use the weekly monitoring of river flows and levels by the department of hydrology, combined with rainfall forecast from the Met agency. Water levels corresponding to the 5 years return periods were selected with a lead-time for action of 4 days. The civil protection directorate provided historical flood impacts. In addition, for the city of Bamako, the following actions were undertaken: geomorphometric analysis from radar and satellite imagery; participatory mapping of flooded areas and analysis of the drainage network collectors, with a focus on the state of gutter blockage; analysis of the duration of the rising water after the start of the rain and the duration of water stagnation. The work undertaken by the WGs led to critical data production needed to develop the trigger mechanism for extreme stream flows, and associated impacts, for the noted rivers, inter alia: identification of areas and households exposed to risk; determination of the thresholds required per village/commune to trigger the emergency alert; identification of upstream mitigation activities at the household level, identification of potential partners in coverage areas where cooperation and/or complementarity is needed; enhanced monitoring of the announced flood through the scientific tools available on a weekly and daily basis. The output of this work is intended to inform discussions in the region and in other regions related to sustainable and appropriate locally led co-development of anticipatory action mechanisms.

This paper seeks to identify opportunities to integrate Earth observations (EO) into flood forecast-based early action and propose future directions for research and collaboration between EO and humanitarian communities. Forecast-based early action (FbA) is an approach to shift disaster response toward anticipation to mitigate impacts to at-risk communities; however, timely and accurate information is needed in the development of data-based triggers and thresholds for action. Therefore, this paper considers the readiness of a wide range of EO for flood monitoring and forecasting in the design, operations, and evaluation phases of FbA. The most significant opportunities for EO to inform FbA efforts lie in the design and evaluation phases, as EO can aid in the development of impact-based triggers. The EO products most readily applicable include precipitation, streamflow estimates, and exposure mapping, and those requiring the greatest amount of further research include vulnerability and impact assessments. This paper identifies collaboration opportunities for the EO and humanitarian communities to create tailored products, such as overlays combining flood extents with exposure maps. Such collaboration opportunities can be fostered by open data sharing, data verification efforts, and incentives for supporting boundary organizations capable of enabling the use of EO for FbA.

The availability of weather and flood forecasts does not ensure that early action will occur, especially at subnational levels where interventions may reduce risk. Further, the relationship between forecasts for a hydrometeorological hazard and the associated impact on people living in areas at risk has not been sufficiently characterized in many locations. Earth observations from satellites and remotely sensed data can aid in bridging the gap between availability of hydrometeorological forecasts and understanding risk. This chapter offers four case studies on the application of Earth observations for anticipatory action across a variety of hydrometeorological hazards. The chapter concludes with recommendations to promote future growth in EO applications for risk and resilience programming and improved anticipatory humanitarian action.

This manuscript focuses on the need for tailoring flood assessment products to decision making within the humanitarian sector. Decision-makers often struggle to extract all of the information contained in scientific products, either because they come from different fields of expertise or because they have different needs that are not captured in the results or the processing of the data. Here we define the key elements of a flood assessment product designed for the humanitarian sector. From a remote sensing perspective, in order to assess flooding, the measurement sampling properties, i.e., spatial resolution and temporal repeat, are key. We have therefore implemented a methodology through the processing and interpretation of the measurements from the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission. CYGNSS measurements are usually parametrized in various possible observables. Those observables are then linked to the surface characteristics, such as, in this case, the presence of inundation in the CYGNSS footprint. Our methodology includes the variability of the pixels in landscapes with infrastructure, rivers, agricultural fields, rural areas, and other elements characteristic of the agricultural-urban interface. We provide an original methodology that uses CYGNSS mission bistatic radar measurements and an artificial intelligence classification algorithm based on statistical properties of the land pixels through a k-means clustering strategy to detect and monitor flooding events, as well as to characterize the land surface prior to and post flooding events. The novel methodology to derive a flooding product is then evaluated towards the needs of the humanitarian sector by a cognizant link (a translator) between technologists or scientists and decision-makers. The inclusion of humanitarian needs into product development following the advice of a cognizant link is novel to the applications developed employing GNSS bistatic radar data.

Social vulnerability is a key component of the risk equation alongside the context of the hazard and exposure. Increasingly, social vulnerability indices are used to better understand and predict the consequences of disasters, and support the development of improved disaster management policies. Humanitarian organisations particularly strive to capture social vulnerability in their decision processes relative to prioritisation of actions before disasters occur. This research supports the Ecuadorian Red Cross in generating a flood-specific social vulnerability index to inform flash flood early action at the Parroquia level in Ecuador. This paper compares the results from the two most common approaches used to create composite indices, one using the weighting of variables from disaster experts’ judgments (referred to as Expert method) and the other using PCA analysis, with one or more components. While all outcomes reveal similar trends in areas where most indicators suggest the lowest (urban areas) or highest (the Amazon and northwest coastal regions) social vulnerability, the research shows that the choice of the method matters for assessing the social vulnerability in the rest of the country where there are less pronounced vulnerability signals. In those areas, PCA-driven indices suggest higher relative vulnerability levels than Expert outcomes. Further, in the Andes particularly, the PCA outcomes result in wider distribution than the Expert outcomes, and therefore more heterogeneity in the vulnerability assessment. While divergence in outcomes suggests particular attention with the use of composite indexes for decision making, our results provide support to understand the sensitivity in flood-specific social vulnerability outcomes spatially. To go further we emphasise the importance of using historical flood impact data to evaluate the contribution of each variable in the final social vulnerability scores.

This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017-18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short- and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds.تقدم هذه المقالة أدلة على التوزيع النقدي المستند إلى التنبؤات وأدوات رعاية الحيوانات بين أسر الرعاة الضعيفة خلال فترة 2017-2018 الشتوية (الشتاء القارس) في منغوليا، وتحلل نتائج دراسة شبه تجريبية لتقييم آثارها. يمكن أن يكون للنهج المبتكر في الحد من مخاطر الكوارث، والتمويل القائم على التنبؤ (FbF) آثار إيجابية قصيرة الأجل وطويلة الأجل للأسر المعرضة للخطر ولكن لا يزال غير مدروس. تساهم هذه المقالة بمعلومات حول برنامَج (FbF) متعدد الوسائط يقدم منحًا نقدية لمرة واحدة ومعدات بيطرية عينية. وجدت البيانات آثارًا كبيرة لتقليل معدل الوفيات وزيادة بقاء النسل في بعض أنواع الماشية، ووجدت أن توقيت مساعدة (FbF) أمر بالغ الأهمية، حيث أن طلب المساعدة مبكرا يرتبط بالنتائج الإيجابية لتقليل معدل وفيات الحيوانات. يمكن أن تساهم هذه النتائج في تصميم تدخلات FbF أكثر فاعلية، وفهم أفضل لمدى ملاءمة تصاميم FbF، واستخدام التحذيرات المبكرة والإجراءات المبكرة لمساعدة الناس على الاستعداد للكوارث ومقاومة الكوارث مثل الزود (فصول الشتاء شديدة القسوة).本文提供了蒙古2017-2018年极端冬季期间，基于预测的现金和动物护理包在脆弱牧民家庭中的分发证据，并分析了一项评估其影响的准实验研究的结果。减少灾害风险和基于预测的融资(FbF)的创新方法对弱势群体的家庭能产生积极的短期和长期影响，但仍有待研究。本文提供了一次性现金赠款和兽药实物包的多模式FbF项目的信息。数据发现，在某些类型的牲畜中，降低死亡率和提高后代存活率具有显著效果，并发现FbF的帮助至关重要，因为报道的早期援助与降低动物死亡率的结果是积极相关联的。这些发现可以帮助设计更有效的防雨干预措施，更好地理解防雨设计的适宜性，并利用早期预警和早期行动帮助人们准备和抵御暴风雪等类的灾害。.

Every year riverine flooding affects millions of people in developing countries, due to the large population exposure in the floodplains and the lack of adequate flood protection measures. Preparedness and monitoring are effective ways to reduce flood risk. State-of-the-art technologies relying on satellite remote sensing as well as numerical hydrological and weather predictions can detect and monitor severe flood events at a global scale. This paper describes the emerging role of the Global Flood Partnership (GFP), a global network of scientists, users, private and public organizations active in global flood risk management. Currently, a number of GFP member institutes regularly share results from their experimental products, developed to predict and monitor where and when flooding is taking place in near real-time. GFP flood products have already been used on several occasions by national environmental agencies and humanitarian organizations to support emergency operations and to reduce the overall socio-economic impacts of disasters. This paper describes a range of global flood products developed by GFP partners, and how these provide complementary information to support and improve current global flood risk management for large scale catastrophes. We also discuss existing challenges and ways forward to turn current experimental products into an integrated flood risk management platform to improve rapid access to flood information and increase resilience to flood events at global scale.

The analysis of historical disaster events is a critical step towards understanding current risk levels and changes in disaster risk over time. Disaster databases are potentially useful tools for exploring trends, however, criteria for inclusion of events and for associated descriptive characteristics is not standardized. For example, some databases include only primary disaster types, such as ‘flood’, while others include subtypes, such as ‘coastal flood’ and ‘flash flood’. Here we outline a method to identify candidate events for assignment of a specific disaster subtype—namely, ‘flash floods’—from the corresponding primary disaster type—namely, ‘flood’. Geophysical data, including variables derived from remote sensing, are integrated to develop an enhanced flash flood confidence index, consisting of both a flash flood confidence index based on text mining of disaster reports and a flash flood susceptibility index from remote sensing derived geophysical data. This method was applied to a historical flood event dataset covering Ecuador. Results indicate the potential value of disaggregating events labeled as a primary disaster type into events of a particular subtype. The outputs are potentially useful for disaster risk reduction and vulnerability assessment if appropriately evaluated for fitness of use. Campus Lima Centro

Climate services involve the timely production, translation, and delivery of useful climate data, information, and knowledge for societal decision-making. They rely on a range of expertise and are underpinned by research in climate and related sciences, sectoral applications (e.g., agriculture, water, health, energy, disasters), and a number of social science fields, including political science, sociology, anthropology, and economics. Feedback and engagement between these research communities and the communities involved in developing and/or using climate services is thus critical, ensuring that climate services are built on the best available science and providing researchers with guidance regarding priority challenges in the development of climate services that should warrant their attention. This paper reports the results of an international survey to gauge community perspective on research priorities for climate services, highlighting several areas in which respondents agree on the need for future work. The survey results indicate an overarching interest in research that can better connect climate information to users, particularly around the communication of climate information, the mapping of climate information needs, and the evaluation and prioritization of capacity building efforts. They also reveal significant interest in climate research to advance the skill of forecasts at subseasonal-to-seasonal scales – considered more broadly useful to decision makers than information at the end-of-century timescale – and to identify the drivers of extreme events. To support climate-related research, survey respondents underscore the need to continually develop and maintain the observational network. In analyzing these results, the paper offers guidance to researchers and to other members of the climate services community that may find these priorities useful in directing their own work to address the challenges posed by climate variability and change.

Existing methods of linking climate and music exist, but do they lead to action to address amplifying and changing climate related risks? At Balance-Unbalance 2016 in Colombia, a session was facilitated to explore new modalities of linking climate and music. The session revealed a potential to further develop modes to convey this relationship, leveraging the ubiquity of music-driven emotional response and universality of feeling, but likely not responding to, climate.