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Objective To estimate the risk of an emergency department (ED)/inpatient visit due to complications in people with diabetes and compare them to their non-diabetes counterparts. Methods This matched retrospective cohort study used a linked dataset in Tasmania, Australia for the 2004–17 period. People with diabetes (n = 45 378) were matched on age, sex and geographical regions with people without diabetes (n = 90 756) based on propensity score matching. The risk of an ED/inpatient visit related to each complication was estimated using negative binomial regression. Results In people with diabetes, the combined ED and admission rates per 10 000 person-years were considerable, especially for macrovascular complications (ranging from 31.8 (lower extremity amputation) to 205.2 (heart failure)). The adjusted incidence rate ratios of ED/inpatient visits were: retinopathy 59.1 (confidence interval 25.8, 135.7), lower extremity amputation 11.1 (8.8, 14.1), foot ulcer/gangrene 9.5 (8.1, 11.2), nephropathy 7.4 (5.4, 10.1), dialysis 6.5 (3.8, 10.9), transplant 6.3 (2.2, 17.8), vitreous haemorrhage 6.0 (3.7, 9.8), fatal myocardial infarction 3.4 (2.3, 5.1), kidney failure 3.3 (2.3, 4.5), heart failure 2.9 (2.7, 3.1), angina pectoris 2.1 (2.0, 2.3), ischaemic heart disease 2.1 (1.9, 2.3), neuropathy 1.9 (1.7, 2.0), non-fatal myocardial infarction 1.7 (1.6, 1.8), blindness/low vision 1.4 (0.8, 2.5), non-fatal stroke 1.4 (1.3, 1.6), fatal stroke 1.3 (0.9, 2.1) and transient ischaemic attack 1.1 (1.0, 1.2). Conclusions Our results demonstrated the high demand on hospital services due to diabetes complications (especially macrovascular complications) and highlighted the importance of preventing and properly managing microvascular complications. These findings will support future resource allocation to reduce the increasing burden of diabetes in Australia.

Little is known about the impact of co-morbidities on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for people with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We aimed to investigate the relative contribution of co-morbidities to HRQoL of people with IPF.N = 157 participants were recruited from the Australian IPF Registry (AIPFR). Health state utilities (HSUs), and the super-dimensions of physical and psychosocial scores were measured using the Assessment of Quality of Life-8-Dimensions (AQoL-8D). The impact of co-morbidities on HRQoL was investigated using linear regression and general dominance analyses.A higher number of co-morbidities was associated with lower HSUs (p trend = 0.002). Co-morbidities explained 9.1% of the variance of HSUs, 16.0% of physical super-dimensional scores, and 4.2% of psychosocial super-dimensional scores. Arthritis was associated with a significant reduction on HSUs (β = - 0.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] - 0.16 to - 0.02), largely driven by reduced scores on the physical super-dimension (β = - 0.13, 95% CI - 0.20 to - 0.06). Heart diseases were associated with a significant reduction on HSUs (β = - 0.09, 95% CI - 0.16 to - 0.02), driven by reduced scores on physical (β = - 0.09, 95% CI - 0.16 to - 0.02) and psychosocial (β = -0.10, 95% CI - 0.17 to - 0.02) super-dimensions.Co-morbidities significantly impact HRQoL of people with IPF, with markedly negative impacts on their HSUs and physical health. A more holistic approach to the care of people with IPF is important as better management of these co-morbidities could lead to improved HRQoL in people with IPF.

Objective We set out to estimate healthcare costs of diabetes complications in the year of first occurrence and the second year, and to quantify the incremental costs of diabetes versus non-diabetes related to each complication. Methods In this cohort study, people with diabetes (n = 45 378) and their age/sex propensity score matched controls (n = 90 756) were identified from a linked dataset in Tasmania, Australia between 2004 and 2017. Direct costs (including hospital, emergency room visits and pathology costs) were calculated from the healthcare system perspective and expressed in 2020 Australian dollars. The average-per-patient costs and the incremental costs in people with diabetes were calculated for each complication. Results First-year costs when the complications occurred were: dialysis $78 152 (95% CI 71 095, 85 858), lower extremity amputations $63 575 (58 290, 68 688), kidney transplant $48 487 (33 862, 68 283), non-fatal myocardial infarction $30 827 (29 558, 32 197), foot ulcer/gangrene $29 803 (27 183, 32 675), ischaemic heart disease $29 160 (26 962, 31 457), non-fatal stroke $27 782 (26 285, 29 354), heart failure $27 379 (25 968, 28 966), kidney failure $24 904 (19 799, 32 557), angina pectoris $18 430 (17 147, 19 791), neuropathy $15 637 (14 265, 17 108), nephropathy $15 133 (12 285, 18 595), retinopathy $14 775 (11 798, 19 199), transient ischaemic attack $13 905 (12 529, 15 536), vitreous hemorrhage $13 405 (10 241, 17 321), and blindness/low vision $12 941 (8164, 19 080). The second-year costs ranged from 16% (ischaemic heart disease) to 74% (dialysis) of first-year costs. Complication costs were 109–275% higher than in people without diabetes. Conclusions Diabetes complications are costly, and the costs are higher in people with diabetes than without diabetes. Our results can be used to populate diabetes simulation models and will support policy analyses to reduce the burden of diabetes.

Purpose Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive and debilitating chronic lung disease with a high symptom burden, which has a substantial impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Our study aimed to assess the suitability of the EuroQol five-dimension (EQ-5D-5L) and the Assessment of Quality of Life- eight-dimension (AQoL-8D) questionnaires in measuring HRQoL as health state utility values (HSUVs) in an Australian IPF cohort. Methods Data for estimation of health state utility values (HSUVs) were collected from participants of the Australian IPF Registry (AIPFR) using self-administered surveys which included the EQ-5D-5L and the AQoL-8D. Data on lung function and disease specific HRQoL instruments were collected from the AIPFR. Performance of the two instruments was evaluated based on questionnaire practicality, agreement between the two instruments and test performance (internal and construct validity). Results Overall completion rates for the EQ-5D-5L and AQoL-8D were 96% and 85%, respectively. Mean (median) HSUVs were 0.65 (0.70) and 0.69 (0.72) for the EQ-5D-5L and AQoL-8D, respectively. There was reasonable agreement between the two instruments based on the Bland–Altman plot mean difference (−0.04) and intraclass correlation coefficient (0.84), however there were some fundamental differences. A larger range of values was observed with the EQ-5D-5L (−0.57–1.00 vs 0.16–1.00). The EQ-5D-5L had a greater divergent sensitivity and efficacy in relation to assessing HSUVs between clinical groupings. The AQoL-8D ,however, had a higher sensitivity to measure psychosocial aspects of HRQoL in IPF. Conclusion The EQ-5D-5L demonstrated superior performance when compared to AQoL-8D in persons with IPF. This may be attributable to the high symptom burden which is physically debilitating to which the EQ-5D-5L may be more sensitive.

Background: According to limited-capacity theories of attention, less attentional resources remain available when engaging in a high- versus a low-demanding cognitive task. This may reduce the perceived intensity and the evoked cortical responses of concomitant nociceptive stimuli. Whether and how the competition for limited attentional resources between a cognitive task and pain impacts the development of long-lasting hypersensitivity is unclear. Methods: Eighty-four healthy participants were randomized into a low or high cognitive load group. Low-frequency electrical stimulation (LFS) of the skin was used to induce secondary hypersensitivity. We hypothesized that performing the high-load task during LFS would reduce the development of hypersensitivity. We examined whether painfulness, nonpain-related sympathetic arousal, or sex related to hypersensitivity, by assessing intensity and unpleasantness of mechanical pinprick stimulation. During task execution, we recorded steady-state evoked potentials evoked by LFS and skin conductance level for sympathetic arousal. Afterwards, participants reported task difficulty and LFS-related fear. For the primary outcomes, we used mixed analysis of variances. Results: The results confirmed the difference in cognitive load. Although LFS successfully induced hypersensitivity, the high-load task did not reduce its development. Next, the steady-state evoked potentials did not differ between groups. Hypersensitivity correlated positively with pain-related fear and negatively with skin conductance level before LFS, despite the lack of group differences in skin conductance level. We did not find any sex differences in hypersensitivity. Conclusions: These results do not confirm that high cognitive load or sex modulate hypersensitivity, but show associations with pain-related fear and non-pain-related sympathetic arousal. Significance: Previous research has mainly focused on cognitive load effects on the perception of acute painful stimuli. Yet this study extends our understanding by investigating cognitive load effects on the development of long-lasting secondary hypersensitivity, a common aspect in numerous persistent pain conditions. As cognitive tasks are presented during a painful procedure inducing secondary hypersensitivity, we test the long-lasting effects of cognitive load. Additionally, we used psychophysiological measurements to explored potential underlying mechanisms involving limited attentional resources and sympathetic arousal.

Objectives Fibrotic interstitial lung disease (ILD) includes a large group of conditions that lead to scarring of the lungs. The lack of available 5-level EuroQol 5D (EQ5D) data has limited the ability to conduct economic evaluations in ILD. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a mapping algorithm that predicts EQ5D utilities from commonly collected pulmonary function measurements (forced vital capacity [FVC] and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide [DLCO]) in fibrotic ILDs. Methods EQ5D utility and pulmonary function measurements from the Canadian Registry for Pulmonary Fibrosis were included. Ordinary least squares (OLS), beta regression, two-part, and tobit models were used to map EQ5D utilities from FVC or DLCO. Model performance was assessed by comparing the predicted and observed utilities. Subgroup analyses were also conducted to test how well models performed across different patient characteristics. The models were then externally validated in the Australian Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Registry. Results The OLS model performed as well as other more complex models (root mean squared error: 0.17 for FVC and 0.16 for DLCO). As with the other models, the OLS algorithm performed well across the different subgroups (except for EQ5D utilities < 0.5) and in the external validation cohort. Conclusion We developed a mapping algorithm that predicts EQ5D utilities from FVC and DLCO, with the intent that this algorithm can be applied to clinical trial populations and real-world cohorts that have not prioritized collection of health-related utilities. The mapping algorithm can be used in future economic evaluations of potential ILD therapies.

Health state utility values (HSUVs) are a key input in health economic modeling, but HSUVs of people with osteoarthritis (OA)-related conditions have not been systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed. Our objective was to systematically review and meta-analyze the HSUVs for people with OA.Searches within health economic/biomedical databases were performed to identify eligible studies reporting OA-related HSUVs. Data on study design, participant characteristics, affected OA joint sites, treatment type, HSUV elicitation method, considered health states, and the reported HSUVs were extracted. HSUVs for people with knee, hip, and mixed OA in pre- and posttreatment populations were meta-analyzed using random effects models.A total of 151 studies were included in the systematic review, and 88 in meta-analyses. Of 151 studies, 56% were conducted in Europe, 75% were in people with knee and/or hip OA, and 79% were based on the EuroQoL 5-dimension instrument. The pooled mean baseline HSUVs for knee OA core interventions, medication, injection, and primary surgery treatments were 0.64 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.61-0.66), 0.56 (95% CI 0.45-0.68), 0.58 (95% CI 0.50-0.66), and 0.52 (95% CI 0.49-0.55), respectively. These were 0.71 (95% CI 0.59-0.84) for hip OA core interventions and 0.52 (95% CI 0.49-0.56) for hip OA primary surgery. For all knee OA treatments and hip OA primary surgery, pooled HSUVs were significantly higher in the post- than the pretreatment populations.This study provides a comprehensive summary of OA-related HSUVs and generates an HSUV database for people with different affected OA joint sites undergoing different treatments to guide HSUV choices in future health economic modeling of OA interventions.

Objectives Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is one of the most common forms of interstitial lung disease presenting in people aged ≥50 years. There is currently no cure for IPF, but two medications (pirfenidone and nintedanib) have been shown to slow the functional decline of the lungs. In 2017, these two medications were listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) for subsidisation in Australia. This study evaluated local trends in the use of these two medications. Methods Prescription data for this analysis were obtained from the PBS Item Reports for the period May 2017–May 2020. Population data were extracted from the Australian Bureau of Statistics data cubes. A descriptive approach was used to conduct and report the analysis to illustrate trends in the use of these two medications and associated costs. Results There were 44 010 prescriptions processed for the treatment for IPF in the 3-year period. Nintedanib use was higher than pirfenidone use, accounting for 54% of prescriptions. New South Wales accounted for 35% of the total prescriptions but, when standardised against population size, the Australian Capital Territory accounted for the highest proportion of prescriptions (24%). Prescriptions for nintedanib and pirfenidone were associated with a total cost of A$131 377 951 over the period 2017–20. Conclusion This study provides initial information on prescription rates, practices and expenditure for pirfenidone and nintedanib. In addition, we provide some insight into possible pharmacological and epidemiological trends based on jurisdictional differences. Together, the results from this study provide a platform for future research given the dearth of information on IPF in Australia. What is known about the topic? Data regarding trends in the utilisation of antifibrotics for the treatment of IPF in Australia are currently limited. What does this paper add? This study demonstrated that nintedanib use was slightly higher than pirfenidone use, and that there were variations in jurisdictional prescribing practices. The highest number of prescriptions and costs were attributable to New South Wales but, when standardised against population size, the Australian Capital Territory had the highest number of prescriptions and costs. What are the implications for practitioners? This study provides some insights into the use of pirfenidone and nintedanib, as well as pharmacoepidemiological trends, in Australia, which is useful for economic evaluation and modelling future health expenditure.

Objective: To comprehensively synthesise the evolution of health-economic evaluation models (HEEMs) of all OA interventions including preventions, core treatments, adjunct non-pharmacological interventions, pharmacological and surgical treatments. Methods: The literature was searched within health-economic/biomedical databases. Data extracted included: OA type, population characteristics, model setting/type/events, study perspective, comparators; and the reporting quality of the studies was assessed. The review protocol was registered at the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (registration: CRD42018092937). Results: Eighty-eight studies were included. Pharmacological and surgical interventions were the focus in 51% and 44% studies, respectively. Twenty-four studies adopted a societal perspective (with increasing popularity after 2013), however most (63%) did not include indirect costs. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was the most popular outcome measure since 2008. Markov models were used by 62% of studies, with increasing popularity since 2008. Until 2010, most studies used short-to-medium time horizons; subsequently a lifetime horizon became popular. Eighty-six percent of studies reported discount rate(s) (predominantly between 3% and 5%). Studies published after 2002 had a better coverage of OA-related adverse events (AEs). Reporting quality significantly improved after 2001. Conclusions: OA HEEMs have evolved and improved substantially over time, with focus shifting from short-to-medium-term pharmacological decision-tree models to surgical-focused lifetime Markov models. Indirect costs of OA are frequently not considered, despite using a societal perspective. There was lack of reporting sensitivity of model outcome to input parameters including discount rate, OA definition, and population parameters. Whilst the coverage of OA-related AEs has improved over time, it is still not comprehensive.

Background: Disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) are used to treat people with relapsing-onset multiple sclerosis (ROMS), but our knowledge is largely limited to their short-term effects. Objective: To determine (1) the impact of national-level DMT subsidy policy on DMT use and health outcomes in people with MS (PwMS) and (2) the long-term effects of DMT on disability and quality of life (QoL; 5-level EQ-5D version (EQ-5D-5L) utility value). Methods: This observational cohort study compared Australian and New Zealand populations with different levels of DMT availability 10–20 years post-ROMS diagnosis. Between-country differences were assessed using standardised differences. Associations were assessed with multivariable linear regression models. Results: We recruited 328 Australians and 256 New Zealanders. The Australian cohort had longer DMT treatment duration, greater proportion of disease course treated and shorter duration between diagnosis and starting DMT. The Australian cohort had lower median Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) (3.5 vs 4.0) and Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) (3.05 vs 3.71) and higher QoL (0.71 vs 0.65). In multivariable models, between-country differences in disability and QoL were largely attributed to differential use of DMT. Conclusions: This study provides evidence for the impact of national-level DMT policy on disability outcomes in PwMS. Where DMTs are more accessible, PwMS experienced less disability progression and improved QoL 10–20 years post-diagnosis.

Background Health state utilities (HSU) are a health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) input for cost-utility analyses used for resource allocation decisions, including medication reimbursement. New Zealand (NZ) guidelines recommend the EQ-5D instruments; however, the EQ-5D-5L may not sufficiently capture psychosocial health. We evaluated HRQoL among people with multiple sclerosis (MS) in NZ using the EQ-5D-5L and assessed the instrument’s discriminatory sensitivity for a NZ MS cohort. Methods Participants were recruited from the NZ MS Prevalence Study. Participants self-completed a 45-min online survey that included the EQ-5D-5L/EQ-VAS. Disability severity was classified using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) to categorise participant disability as mild (EDSS: 0–3.5), moderate (EDSS: 4.0–6.0) and severe (EDSS: 6.5–9.5). Anxiety/depression were also measured using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score (HADS). In the absence of an EQ-5D-5L NZ tariff, HSUs were derived using an Australian tariff. We evaluated associations between HSUs and participant characteristics with linear regression models. Results 254 participants entered the study. Mean age was 55.2 years, 79.5% were female. Mean (SD) EQ-5D-5L HSU was 0.58 (0.33). Mean (SD) HSUs for disability categories were: mild 0.80 ± 0.17, moderate 0.57 ± 0.21 and severe 0.14 ± 0.32. Twelve percent reported HSU = 1.0 (i.e., no problems in any domain). Participants who had never used a disease-modifying therapy reported a lower mean HSU. Multivariable modelling found that the HADS anxiety score was not associated with EQ-5D-5L. Conclusions HRQoL for people with MS in NZ was lower than comparable countries, including Australia. We suggest a comparison with other generic tools that may have improved sensitivity to mental health.

Background and purpose: This study was undertaken to identify clinically meaningful comorbidity patterns and their associations with the demographic/clinical characteristics of people with multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods: We conducted latent class analysis to identify clinically distinct comorbidity patterns in MS using the 15 most common comorbidities among 1518 Australian Multiple Sclerosis Longitudinal Study participants. The associations between demographic/clinical characteristics and comorbidity patterns were examined using log-binomial and multinomial logistic regression. Results: Five distinct comorbidity patterns were identified: "minimally diseased class" (30.8%), consisting of participants with no or one comorbidity; "metabolic class" (22.7%); "mental health-allergy class" (21.7%); "nonmetabolic class" (7.6%); and "severely diseased class" (7.0%), consisting of participants with higher prevalence of these comorbidities. The relative probabilities of being assigned to comorbidity classes compared to the minimally diseased class were significantly increased for participants who were older (metabolic: relative risk ratio [RRR] = 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.06-1.11; nonmetabolic: RRR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.04-1.11; severely diseased: RRR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.01-1.08), female (nonmetabolic: RRR = 5.35, 95% CI = 1.98-14.42; severely diseased: RRR = 2.21, 95% CI = 1.02-4.77), and obese (metabolic: RRR = 4.06, 95% CI = 2.45-6.72; mental health-allergy: RRR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.00-2.46; severely diseased: RRR = 4.53, 95% CI = 2.21-9.29) and who had moderate disability (mental health-allergy: RRR = 2.32, 95% CI = 1.47-3.64; severely diseased: RRR = 2.65, 95% CI = 1.16-6.04). Conclusions: Comorbidity patterns exist in MS. Women, people who were older, people who were obese, and people who had higher disability levels were more likely to be in classes with higher levels of comorbidity. These findings may offer opportunities for designing more personalised approaches to comorbidity prevention and treatment.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive and universally fatal lung disease, characterised by increasing fibrosis of the lung parenchyma. In this study, we aimed to quantify the health state utility values (HSUVs) for Australians with IPF and to identify the factors affecting these HSUVs. Participants of the Australian IPF Registry (AIPFR), with data on EuroQoL five dimension—five level (EQ-5D-5L) profiles were included. Pulmonary function tests (PFTs) were used to assess disease severity using three IPF -based classification systems. Stepwise multivariable linear regression models assessed the relationship between HSUVs and important demographic and clinical parameters.Query A total of 155 participants provided data for the analysis of HSUVs. For our base case, HSUVs ranged from − 0.57 to 1.00. Mean HSUVs for all participants was 0.65 (95% CI 0.61–0.70). In general, HSUVs decreased with increasing disease severity under all disease severity classification systems. Multivariable linear regression demonstrated a negative association between HSUVs, disease severity and having more than 2 comorbidities. Our study has shown that EQ-5D-5L has exhibited discriminatory sensitivity for the study population. We have demonstrated that disease severity and having more than two comorbidities was associated with lower HSUVs in Australians with IPF. Our findings support early diagnosis and appropriate evidence-based treatment to slow or prevent IPF progression; and identification and treatment of associated comorbidities to potentially improve health-related quality of life in people with IPF.

Health state utilities (HSUs) are an input metric for estimating quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) in cost–utility analyses. Currently, there is a paucity of data on association of knee symptoms with HSUs for middle-aged populations. We aimed to describe the association of knee symptoms and change in knee symptoms with SF-6D HSUs and described the distribution of HSUs against knee symptoms’ severity. Participants (36–49-years) were selected from the third follow-up (completed 2019) of Australian Childhood Determinants of Adult Health study. SF-6D HSUs were generated from the participant-reported SF-12. Association between participant-reported WOMAC knee symptoms’ severity, change in knee symptoms over 6–9 years, and HSUs were evaluated using linear regression models. For the cross-sectional analysis, 1,567 participants were included; mean age 43.5 years, female 54%, BMI ± SD 27.18 ± 5.31 kg/m2. Mean ± SD HSUs for normal, moderate, and severe WOMAC scores were 0.820 ± 0.120, 0.800 ± 0.120, and 0.740 ± 0.130, respectively. A significant association was observed between worsening knee symptoms and HSUs in univariable and multivariable analyses after adjustment (age and sex). HSU decrement for normal-to-severe total-WOMAC and WOMAC-pain was − 0.080 (95% CI − 0.100 to − 0.060, p

Introduction Though cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) have evaluated continuous renal replacement therapy (RRTs) and intermittent RRTs in acute kidney injury (AKI) patients; it is yet to establish which RRT technique is most cost-effective. We systematically reviewed the current evidence from CEAs of CRRT versus IRRT in patients with AKI. Areas covered PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases searched for CEAs comparing two RRTs. Overall, seven CEAs, two from Brazil and one from US, Canada, Colombia, Belgium, and Argentina were included. Five CEAs used Markov model, three reported following CHEERS, none accounted indirect costs. Time horizon varied from 1-year-lifetime. Marginal QALY gain with CRRT compared to IRRT was reported across CEAs. Older CEAs found CRRT to be costlier and not cost-effective than IRRT (ICER 2019 US$: 152,671$/QALY); latest CEAs (industry-sponsored) reported CRRT to be cost-saving versus IRRT (-117,614$/QALY). Risk of mortality, dialysis dependence, and incidence of renal recovery were the key drivers of cost-effectiveness. Expert opinion CEAs of RRTs for AKI show conflicting findings with secular trends. Latest CEAs suggested CRRT to be cost-effective versus IRRT with dialysis dependence rate as major driver of cost-effectiveness. Future CEAs, preferably non-industry sponsored, may account for indirect costs to improve the generalizability of CEAs.

Objectives Many economic evaluations of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screenings have been conducted; however, these vary substantially with regards to screening strategies, patient group, and setting. This review aims to report the current knowledge of the cost-effectiveness of screening and describe the published data. Methods We conducted a search of biomedical and health economic databases up to July 2020. We included full and partial health economic studies if they evaluated the costs or outcomes of HCC screening strategies. Results The review included 43 studies. Due to significant heterogeneity in key aspects across the studies, a narrative synthesis was conducted. Most studies reported using ultrasound or alpha fetoprotein as screening strategies. Screening intervals were mostly annual or biannual. Incidence, diagnostic performance, and health state utility values were the most critical parameters affecting the cost-effectiveness of screening. The majority of studies reported HCC screening to be cost-effective, with the biannual ultrasound + alpha fetoprotein standing out as the most cost-effective strategy. However, few studies considered the utilization rate, and none considered the diagnostic performance of ultrasound in the context of central adiposity. Computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging were also evaluated, but its cost-effectiveness was still controversial. Conclusions Although many studies suggested HCC screening was cost-effective, substantial limitations of the quality of these studies means the results should be interpreted with caution. Future modeling studies should consider the impact of central adiposity on the precision of ultrasound, real-world utilization rates and projections of increased HCC incidence.

The Australian Health Economics Model of Osteoporosis (AusHEMO) has shown good face, internal and cross validities, and can be used to assist healthcare decision-making in Australia. This study aimed to document and validate the risk engine of the Australian Health Economics Model of Osteoporosis (AusHEMO). AusHEMO is a state-transition microsimulation model. The fracture risks were simulated using fracture incidence rates from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study. The AusHEMO was validated regarding its face, internal and cross validities. Goodness-of-fit analysis was conducted and Lin’s coefficient of agreement and mean absolute difference with 95% limits of agreement were reported. The development of AusHEMO followed general and osteoporosis-specific health economics guidelines. AusHEMO showed good face validity regarding the model’s structure, evidence, problem formulation and results. In addition, the model has been proven good internal and cross validities in goodness-of-fit test. Lin’s coefficient was 0.99, 1 and 0.94 for validation against the fracture incidence rates, Australian life expectancies and residual lifetime fracture risks, respectively. In summary, the development of the risk engine of AusHEMO followed the best practice for osteoporosis disease modelling and the model has been shown to have good face, internal and cross validities. The AusHEMO can be confidently used to predict long-term fracture-related outcomes and health economic evaluations when costs data are included. Health policy-makers in Australia can use the AusHEMO to select which osteoporosis interventions such as medications and public health interventions represent good value for money.

Background Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory, neurodegenerative disease of the central nervous system which results in disability over time and reduced quality of life. To increase the sensitivity of the EQ-5D-5L for psychosocial health, four bolt-on items from the AQoL-8D were used to create the nine-item EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial. We aimed to externally validate the EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial in a large cohort of people with MS (pwMS) and explore the discriminatory power of the new instrument with EQ-5D-5L/AQoL-8D. Methods A large representative sample from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study completed the AQoL-8D and EQ-5D-5L (including EQ VAS) and both instruments health state utilities (HSUs) were scored using Australian tariffs. Sociodemographic/clinical data were also collected. External validity of EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial scoring algorithm was assessed with mean absolute errors (MAE) and Spearman’s correlation coefficient. Discriminatory sensitivity was assessed with an examination of ceiling/floor effects, and disability severity classifications. Results Among 1683 participants (mean age: 58.6 years; 80% female), over half (55%) had moderate or severe disability. MAE (0.063) and the distribution of the prediction error were similar to the original development study. Mean (± standard deviation) HSUs were EQ-5D-5L: 0.58 ± 0.32, EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial 0.62 ± 0.29, and AQoL-8D: 0.63 ± 0.20. N = 157 (10%) scored perfect health (i.e. HSU = 1.0) on the EQ-5D-5L, but reported a mean HSU of 0.90 on the alternative instruments. The Sleep bolt-on dimension was particularly important for pwMS. Conclusions The EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial is more sensitive than the EQ-5D-5L in pwMS whose HSUs approach those reflecting full health. When respondent burden is taken into account, the EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial is preferential to the AQoL-8D. We suggest a larger confirmatory study comparing all prevalent multi-attribute utility instruments for pwMS.

Background Structural uncertainty can affect model-based economic simulation estimates and study conclusions. Unfortunately, unlike parameter uncertainty, relatively little is known about its magnitude of impact on life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in modeling of diabetes. We leveraged the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network, a biennial conference attended by international diabetes modeling groups, to assess structural uncertainty in simulating QALYs in type 2 diabetes simulation models. Methods Eleven type 2 diabetes simulation modeling groups participated in the 9th Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge. Modeling groups simulated 5 diabetes-related intervention profiles using predefined baseline characteristics and a standard utility value set for diabetes-related complications. LYs and QALYs were reported. Simulations were repeated using lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs. Changes in LYs and QALYs from tested interventions were compared across models. Additional analyses were conducted postchallenge to investigate drivers of cross-model differences. Results Substantial cross-model variability in incremental LYs and QALYs was observed, particularly for HbA1c and body mass index (BMI) intervention profiles. For a 0.5%-point permanent HbA1c reduction, LY gains ranged from 0.050 to 0.750. For a 1-unit permanent BMI reduction, incremental QALYs varied from a small decrease in QALYs (−0.024) to an increase of 0.203. Changes in utility values of health states had a much smaller impact (to the hundredth of a decimal place) on incremental QALYs. Microsimulation models were found to generate a mean of 3.41 more LYs than cohort simulation models ( P = 0.049). Conclusions Variations in utility values contribute to a lesser extent than uncertainty captured as structural uncertainty. These findings reinforce the importance of assessing structural uncertainty thoroughly because the choice of model (or models) can influence study results, which can serve as evidence for resource allocation decisions. Highlights The findings indicate substantial cross-model variability in QALY predictions for a standardized set of simulation scenarios and is considerably larger than within model variability to alternative health state utility values (e.g., lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs). There is a need to understand and assess structural uncertainty, as the choice of model to inform resource allocation decisions can matter more than the choice of health state utility values.

Issue addressed: Physical activity is lower and rates of preventable common diseases are higher in regional/rural than urban Australia. Active commuting (walking/bicycling to get from one place to another) may benefit health through increased physical activity, but most evidence of its correlates come from urban studies. This study aimed to investigate associations between active commuting, socio-demographic characteristics, behaviours, total physical activity and health in a regional/rural Australian state. Methods: This study used data from the 2016 Tasmanian Population Health Survey, a representative cross-sectional self-report survey of 6,300 adults in Tasmania, Australia. Logistic regression modelling investigated associations between socio-demographic, behavioural and health characteristics and past week active commuting frequency. Results: In multivariable models, being younger, having tertiary qualifications, living in a socio-economically advantaged area, being physically active, having a healthy body mass index and good/excellent self-rated health were associated with engaging in more active commuting. Inner regional dwellers were no more likely than outer regional dwellers to actively commute after covariate adjustment. Conclusion: Strategies to promote active commuting in regional/rural areas might consider targeting older adults, those less educated, those living in socio-economically disadvantaged areas, those less physically active, those with poorer health and those with higher body mass index. Research could further investigate why these groups appear to be less active for commuting purposes. So what?: Increasing physical activity and active commuting may help to reduce rates of preventable common diseases in regional/remote areas.

In flammable landscapes around the globe, longer fire seasons with larger, more severely burnt areas are causing social and economic impacts that are unsustainable. The Australian 2019–20 fire season is emblematic of this trend, burning over 8 million ha of predominately Eucalyptus forests over a six-month period. We calculated the wildfire-smoke-related health burden and costs in Australia for the most recent 20 fire seasons and found that the 2019–20 season was a major anomaly in the recent record, with smoke-related health costs of AU$1.95 billion. These were driven largely by an estimated 429 smoke-related premature deaths in addition to 3,230 hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory disorders and 1,523 emergency attendances for asthma. The total cost was well above the next highest estimate of AU$566 million in 2002–03 and more than nine times the median annual wildfire associated costs for the previous 19 years of AU$211 million. There are substantial economic costs attributable to wildfire smoke and the potential for dramatic increases in this burden as the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase with a hotter climate. Worldwide, longer fire seasons are causing unsustainable impacts. This study finds that the 2019–20 Australia fire season caused health-related costs of AU$1.95 billion, nine times the median for the previous 19 years.

Background: The symptoms that have the largest impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in people with multiple sclerosis (MS) may vary by MS phenotype (relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), secondary progressive MS (SPMS) and primary progressive MS (PPMS)). Knowing these symptoms assists in symptom management. Objective: To examine the associations between 13 common MS symptoms and HRQoL in the total sample and stratified by MS phenotype. Method: The study included 1985 participants. HRQoL was measured with two multi-attribute utility instruments: assessment of quality of life with eight dimensions (AQoL-8D) and European quality of life with five dimensions and five levels for each dimension (EQ-5D-5L). Multivariable linear regression was used to identify the symptoms that had the largest impact on the HRQoLs. Results: Feelings of depression, pain, fatigue, and feelings of anxiety were most strongly associated with AQoL-8D and EQ-5D-5L. Walking difficulties additionally contributed to reduced EQ-5D-5L. The strongest single predictors in the multivariable analyses were feelings of depression or pain for AQoL-8D and walking difficulties for EQ-5D-5L, irrespective of MS phenotype. Conclusion: The strongest single predictors for the AQoL-8D and EQ-5D-5L were feelings of depression, pain and walking difficulties, irrespective of MS phenotype. Reducing these symptoms may have the largest impact on improving HRQoL in all MS phenotypes of people with MS.

Little is known about the change in prevalence of comorbidities during the disease course of people with multiple sclerosis (MS) and whether the prevalences vary by MS onset type. To calculate the change in prevalence of comorbidities between symptom onset and the time of study, to compare the prevalences of comorbidities with those in the Australian population at the time of study and to examine onset-type differences. Comorbidity data from 1518 participants of the Australian MS Longitudinal Study and Australian population comparator data (2014–2015 National Health Survey) were used. The change in prevalence between time points and prevalence ratios (PR) at the time of study (crude, age and sex adjusted, and stratified by onset type) was calculated. Comorbidities were common, and those with the largest increases in prevalence between MS symptom onset and the time of study were depression (+ 26.9%), anxiety (+ 23.1%), hypertension (+ 21.9%), elevated cholesterol (+ 16.3%), osteoarthritis (+ 17.1%), eye diseases (+ 11.6%), osteoporosis (+ 10.9%) and cancer (+ 10.3%). Compared to the general population and after age and sex adjustment, participants had a significantly higher prevalence for 14/19 comorbidities at the time of study. The associations were strongest for anaemia, cancer (both PR > 4.00), anxiety, depression, migraine (all PR > 3.00), psoriasis and epilepsy (both PR > 2.00). No significant differences were seen by onset type. Comorbidities are common at MS symptom onset and increase with MS duration. Having MS may thus contribute to accrual of comorbidities. This emphasises the importance of optimal screening for and management of comorbidities in early MS and throughout the disease course.

Background: No studies have assessed changes in employment survival in multiple sclerosis (MS) populations over recent decades, including the introduction of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). Objectives: To evaluate factors associated with leaving employment due to MS; to assess whether the risk of leaving employment has changed over recent decades in Australia, stratified by MS phenotype. Methods: We included 1240 participants who were working before MS diagnosis. Information on employment status, reasons for leaving employment and year of leaving were collected. Data were analysed using competing risk survival analysis. Results: Males, progressive MS, lower education level and older age at diagnosis were associated with a higher sub-distribution hazard of leaving employment. Compared to the period before 2010, the sub-distribution hazard during 2010–2016 for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) was reduced by 43% (sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50 to 0.90), while no significant reduction was seen for primary-progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) (sHR 1.25, 95% CI: 0.72 to 2.16) or secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) (sHR 1.37, 95% CI: 0.84 to 2.25). Conclusion: Males, people with progressive MS and those of lower education level were at higher risk of leaving employment. The differential changed risk of leaving employment between people with different MS phenotype after 2010 coincides with the increased usage of high-efficacy DMTs for RRMS.

More research is needed to understand the contribution of comorbidities to MS symptomatology. To examine the dose–response relationship between the number of comorbidities and severity of MS symptoms and to assess the relative contribution of comorbidity groups and individual comorbidities to the severity of each symptom. We surveyed 1223 participants of the Australian MS Longitudinal Study for the presence of 30 comorbidities and the severity of 13 MS symptoms (0–10 scale). The associations between comorbidities and symptoms were assessed using negative binomial regression. The relative contributions of comorbidities to the severity of symptoms were assessed using general dominance analysis. Higher number of comorbidities was most strongly associated with a higher severity of pain and feelings of anxiety and depression (ratios of means ≥ 0.12 per comorbidity increase). Comorbidities explained between 3.7% (spasticity) and 22.0% (feelings of anxiety) of the total variance of symptom severity. Mental health and musculoskeletal disorders contributed most strongly to the severity of the most common symptoms in MS. Our findings support that early recognition and optimal management of comorbidities, particularly of mental health and musculoskeletal disorders, could have a positive impact on the severity of symptoms of people with MS.

Little is known about the relative contribution of comorbidities in predicting the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of people with Multiple Sclerosis (PwMS). To determine the associations between the number of and individual comorbidities and HRQoL and estimate the relative contribution of different comorbidities on HRQoL. Cross-sectional analysis of data on self-reported presence of 30 comorbidities and HRQoL from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study (AMSLS) participants (n = 902). HRQoL was measured using the Assessment of Quality of Life-8 Dimensions (AQoL-8D). Linear regression and general dominance analysis were used. Higher number of comorbidities was associated with lower HRQoL (p trend p

Question Is preoperative physiotherapy cost-effective in reducing postoperative pulmonary complications (PPC) and improving quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) after major abdominal surgery? Design Cost-effectiveness analysis from the hospitals' perspective within a multicentre randomised controlled trial with concealed allocation, blinded assessors and intention-to-treat analysis. Participants Four hundred and forty-one adults awaiting elective upper abdominal surgery attending pre-anaesthetic clinics at three public hospitals in Australia and New Zealand. Interventions The experimental group received an information booklet and a 30-minute face-to-face session, involving respiratory education and breathing exercise training, with a physiotherapist. The control group received the information booklet only. Outcome measures The probability of cost-effectiveness and incremental net benefits was estimated using bootstrapped incremental PPC and QALY cost-effectiveness ratios plotted on cost-effectiveness planes and associated probability curves through a range of willingness-to-pay amounts. Cost-effectiveness modelling utilised 21-day postoperative hospital cost audit data and QALYs estimated from Short Form-Six Domain health utilities and mortality to 12 months. Results Preoperative physiotherapy had 95% probability of being cost-effective with an incremental net benefit to participating hospitals of A$4,958 (95% CI 10 to 9,197) for each PPC prevented, given that the hospitals were willing to pay $45,000 to provide the service. Cost-utility for QALY gains was less certain. Sensitivity analyses strengthened cost-effectiveness findings. Improved cost-effectiveness and QALY gains were detected when experienced physiotherapists delivered the intervention. Conclusions Preoperative physiotherapy aimed at preventing PPCs was highly likely to be cost-effective from the hospitals' perspective. For each PPC prevented, preoperative physiotherapy is likely to cost the hospitals less than the costs estimated to treat a PPC after surgery. Potential QALY gains require confirmation. Trial registration ACTRN12613000664741.

OBJECTIVE To develop a patient-level simulation model for predicting lifetime health outcomes of patients with type 1 diabetes and as a tool for economic evaluation of type 1 diabetes treatment based on data from a large, longitudinal cohort. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Data for model development were obtained from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. We derived parametric proportional hazards models predicting absolute risk of diabetes complications and death based on a wide range of clinical variables and history of complications. We used linear regression models to predict risk factor progression. Internal validation was performed, estimates of life expectancies for different age-sex strata were computed, and the impact of key risk factors on life expectancy was assessed. RESULTS The study population consisted of 27,841 patients with type 1 diabetes with a mean duration of follow-up of 7 years. Internal validation showed good agreement between predicted and observed cumulative incidence of death and 10 complications. Simulated life expectancy was approximately 13 years lower than that of the sex- and age-matched general population, and patients with type 1 diabetes could expect to live with one or more complications for approximately 40% of their remaining life. Sensitivity analysis showed the importance of preventing renal dysfunction, hypoglycaemia and hyperglycaemia, and lowering HbA1c in reducing the risk of complications and death. CONCLUSIONS Our model was able to simulate risk factor progression and event histories that closely match the observed outcomes, and project events occurring over patients’ lifetimes. The model can serve as a tool to estimate the impact of changing clinical risk factors on health outcomes to inform economic evaluations of interventions in type 1 diabetes.

While many studies have examined the impacts of multiple sclerosis (MS) on health-related quality of life (HRQoL), none have used the SF-6D multi-attribute utility instrument in a large international cohort (> 2000 subjects) of people with MS. To derive SF-6D health state utilities (HSUs) for participants of the HOLISM (Health Outcomes and Lifestyle In a Sample of people with Multiple Sclerosis) international cohort and to describe the distribution and determinants thereof. HSUs were generated using the SF-6D for participants with sufficient SF-36 data [n = 2185/2466 (88.6%)]. Mean HSUs for sociodemographic, clinical and modifiable lifestyle factors (including diet, physical activity, supplement use) were evaluated. Determinants of HSU were then evaluated by linear regression, adjusted for age, sex, MS type, disability, fatigue, and prescription antidepressant use. Mean HSU for the sample was 0.67 (SD = 0.13) and diminished with increasing MS-related disability, robust to adjustment, supporting the SF-6D’s discriminatory power in people with MS. Severe disability and clinically significant fatigue were each associated with 11% lower HSU (95% CI = − 0.13, − 0.10 and − 0.12, − 0.10), and depression risk with 10%-lower HSU (95% CI = − 0.11, − 0.08). Employment, higher socioeconomic and married/partnered statuses, larger social-network size, greater physical activity, and vitamin D and omega-3 supplement use were associated with significantly higher HSU, and overweight/obese BMI and tobacco smoking with lower HSU. Age, sex, and education were not associated. Modifiable lifestyle factors including healthy diet, increased physical activity and supplement use were associated with higher HRQOL among people with MS. The SF-6D instrument revealed significant discriminatory power in this international cohort of people with MS.

Objectives To evaluate whether an alternative model of care in aged care facilities, including in-house general practitioners, influenced health outcomes for residents. Design Stepped wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial over 90 weeks (31 December 2012 - 21 September 2014), with a 54-week pre-trial retrospective data period (start: 19 December 2011) and a 54-week post-trial prospective data collection period (to 4 October 2015). Participants, setting Fifteen residential aged care facilities operated by Bupa Aged Care in metropolitan and regional cities in four Australian states. Intervention Residential aged care facilities sought to recruit general practitioners as staff members; care staff roles were redefined to allow registered nurses greater involvement in care plan development. Main (primary) outcome measures Numbers of falls; numbers of unplanned transfers to hospital; polypharmacy. Results The new model of care could be implemented in all facilities, but four could not recruit in-house GPs at any time during the trial period. Intention-to-treat analyses found no statistically significant effect of the intervention on the primary outcome measures. Contamination-adjusted intention-to-treat analyses identified that the presence of an in-house GP was associated with reductions in the numbers of unplanned hospital transfers (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.53; 95% CI, 0.43-0.66) and admissions (IRR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.41-0.64) and of out-of-hours GP call-outs (IRR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.36-0.80), but also with an increase in the number of reported falls (IRR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.20-1.58). Conclusions Recruiting GPs to work directly in residential aged care facilities is difficult, but may reduce the burden of unplanned presentations to hospitals and increase the reporting of adverse events. Trial registration Australia New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry, ACTRN12613000218796 (25 February 2013).