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Introduction Over half of post-COVID-hospitalisation adults have persistent symptoms 2 years after discharge, providing a challenge for individuals and healthcare systems. We therefore aimed to describe a typology of UK healthcare pathways post-hospital discharge as a first step towards understanding clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different healthcare pathways. Methods In 2021, we surveyed hospital sites taking part in the UK Post-hospital COVID-19 (PHOSP-COVID) study. The online survey explored the availability of proactive follow-up, patient selection, involvement of multidisciplinary teams, investigations, assessment and access to mental health and rehabilitation interventions. The typology was defined by a three-stage process: 1) using the survey results to develop a bespoke algorithm to inform a draft classification, 2) a stakeholder event for refinement and 3) finalisation between the Project Advisory Group and research team. The bespoke algorithm was used to map each site onto the classification with further mapping by level of mental health and rehabilitation provision. Results 70% of hospital sites (45 out of 64) responded to the survey. 82% (37 out of 45) reported delivering a follow-up service after hospital discharge during the first few months of the pandemic. Only 13 out of 37 services (35%) were delivered by permanent staff. The final typology of five categories included no proactive follow-up, and a matrix of four groups based on patient selection (prespecified subgroup/all patients) and complexity of assessment (low/high). The complexity of assessment, rehabilitation and mental health interventions was variable within sites. Discussion We describe the first typology of post-hospitalisation COVID-19 healthcare pathways to enable modelling of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness to inform future policy. Our results highlight the heterogeneity and vulnerability of healthcare services after COVID-19 hospitalisation.

Summary: Background: The UK is legally committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. We aimed to understand the potential impact on population health of two pathways for achieving this target through the integrated effects of six actions in four sectors. Methods: In this multisectoral modelling study we assessed the impact on population health in England and Wales of six policy actions relating to electricity generation, transport, home energy, active travel, and diets relative to a baseline scenario in which climate actions, exposures, and behaviours were held constant at 2020 levels under two scenarios: the UK Climate Change Committee's Balanced Pathway of technological and behavioural measures; and its Widespread Engagement Pathway, which assumes more substantial changes to consumer behaviours. We quantified the impacts of each policy action on mortality using a life table comprising all exposures, behaviours, and health outcomes in a single model. Findings: Both scenarios are predicted to result in substantial reductions in mortality by 2050. The Widespread Engagement Pathway achieves a slightly greater reduction in outdoor fine particulate matter air pollution of 3·2 μg/m3 (33%) and, under assumptions of appropriate ventilation, a greater improvement in indoor air pollution (a decrease in indoor-generated fine particulate matter from 9·4 μg/m3 to 4·6 μg/m3) and winter temperatures (increasing from 17·8°C to 18·1°C), as well as appreciably greater changes in levels of active travel (27% increase in metabolic equivalent hours per week of walking and cycling) by 2050. Additionally, the greater reduction in red meat consumption (50% compared with 35% under the Balanced Pathway) by 2050 results in greater consumption of fruits (17–18 g/day), vegetables (22–23 g/day), and legumes (5–7 g/day). Combined actions under the Balanced Pathway result in more than 2 million cumulative life-years gained over 2021–50; the estimated gain under the Widespread Engagement Pathway is greater, corresponding to nearly 2·5 million life-years gained by 2050 and 13·7 million life-years gained by 2100. Interpretation: Reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions is likely to lead to substantial benefits for public health in England and Wales, with the cumulative net benefits being correspondingly greater with a pathway that entails faster and more ambitious changes, especially in physical activity and diets. Funding: National Institute for Health Research and the Wellcome Trust.

We explore methodological issues core to the cost-benefit evaluation of building adaptations designed to protect against heat risks to residents of care homes in England in the context of the uncertainties relating to the loss of life expectancy in heat death. We used building physics modelling to quantify the impact of external window shading on indoor temperatures. We calculated associated heat mortality and loss of life expectancy under three sets of assumptions of life-shortening based on: (Method 1) an England & Wales (E&W) life-table, (Method 2) E&W life-table scaled to match observed average survival of care home residents and (Method 3) assuming that those dying of heat have a life expectancy of six months. External window shading was estimated to reduce mean indoor temperatures by 0.9 °C in a ‘warm’ summer and 0.6 °C in an ‘average’ summer. In a care home of 50 residents, the heat deaths and years of life lost (YLL) averted by such shading were estimated by the three life-expectancy assumptions (Methods 1, 2, 3) to be: 0.07, 0.47 and 0.28 heat deaths and 0.29, 0.76 and 0.14 YLL for the warm year and 0.05, 0.31 and 0.19 heat deaths and 0.20, 0.51 and 0.10 YLL for the average year. Over a 20-year time horizon and assuming an annual discount rate of 3.5%, the monetized benefit of reduced YLL would be around £90,000, £230,000 and £44,000 with the three life-expectancy assumptions. Although this range represents appreciable uncertainty, it appears that modest cost adaptations to heat risk may be justified in conventional cost-benefit terms even under conservative assumptions about life expectancy.

The data presented in this article were used to estimate the impacts of air pollution policies on population health and health inequalities within a spatial microsimulation model, MicroEnv [1]. They provide a basis for comparison with similar models and allow researchers to integrate additional model components without duplication of effort. Relative risk estimates for the association between air pollution and rates of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) incidence, IHD case fatality and all-cause mortality were taken from a review of the epidemiological literature and meta-analyses [2]. Modelled small area air pollution data (PM2.5) for Greater London, UK were obtained from an environmental consultancy. All other data were collected from open source Governmental or Non-Government Organisation (NGO) data repositories. These include all-cause mortality rates; IHD incidence, prevalence and mortality rates; general fertility rates; small area socio-economic deprivation data; and relative risk estimates for the association between deprivation and all-cause mortality. Keywords: Microsimulation, Health impact modelling, Environmental risks, Deprivation, Air pollution