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Introduction: Immunoadsorption (IA) of isohemagglutinins is an often-crucial procedure in preparation of major ABO blood group-incompatible living donor kidney transplantation (ABOi LDKT). Standard citrate-based anticoagulation during the procedure has potential disadvantages for distinct patient groups. In this study, we report our experience with an alternative anticoagulation scheme using heparin during IA for selected patients. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of all patients who underwent IA with heparin anticoagulation between February 2013 and December 2019 at our institution with focus on the safety and efficacy of the adapted procedure. For further validation, we compared graft function, graft survival, and overall survival with those of all recipients of living donor kidney transplants with or without pretransplant desensitizing apheresis for ABO antibodies at our institution during the same period. Results: In thirteen consecutive patients prepared for ABOi LDKT with IA with heparin anticoagulation, no major bleeding or other significant complications were observed. All patients achieved sufficient isohemagglutinin titer reduction to proceed to transplant surgery. Graft function, graft survival, and overall survival did not significantly differ from patients treated with standard anticoagulation for IA or ABO compatible recipients of living donor kidneys. Conclusion: IA with heparin in preparation of ABOi LDKT is safe and feasible for selected patients after internal validation.

Current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association/Heart Rhythm Society (ACC/AHA/HRS) and European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines recommend different strategies to avoid low-yield admissions in patients with syncope.The purpose of this study was to directly compare the safety and efficacy of applying admission criteria of both guidelines to patients presenting with syncope to the emergency department in 2 multicenter studies.The international BASEL IX (BAsel Syncope EvaLuation) study (median age 71 years) and the U.S. SRS (Improving Syncope Risk Stratification in Older Adults) study (median age 72 years) were investigated. Primary endpoints were sensitivity/specificity for the adjudicated diagnosis of cardiac syncope (BASEL IX only) and 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events (30d-MACE).Among 2560 patients in the BASEL IX and 2085 in SRS studies, ACC/AHA/HRS and ESC criteria recommended admission for a comparable number of patients in BASEL IX (27% vs 28%), but ACC/AHA/HRS criteria less often in SRS (19% vs 32%; P.01). Recommendations were discordant in ∼25% of patients. In BASEL IX, sensitivity for cardiac syncope and 30d-MACE among patients without admission criteria was comparable for ACC/AHA/HRS and ESC criteria (64% vs 65%, P = .86; and 67% vs 71%, P = .15, respectively). In SRS, sensitivity for 30d-MACE was lower with ACC/AHA/HRS (54%) vs ESC criteria (88%; P.001). Similarly, specificity for cardiac syncope and 30d-MACE in BASEL IX was comparable for both guidelines, but in SRS the ACC/AHA/HRS guidelines showed a higher specificity for 30d-MACE than the ESC guidelines.ACC/AHA/HRS and ESC guidelines showed disagreement regarding admission for 1 in 4 patients and had only modest sensitivity, all indicating possible opportunities for improvements.

BACKGROUND: A triple storage (TS) set allows for pathogen inactivation (PI) treatment of triple-dose apheresis platelet products with amotosalen + UVA. We evaluated the quality and metabolic parameters of platelet concentrates (PCs) pathogen inactivated and stored for 7 days. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twelve triple-dose products collected with two different apheresis platforms were treated with amotosalen+UVA. Products were split into three single-dose units. Testing was made pretreatment, after splitting, at days 5 and 7 of storage. RESULTS: Single-dose PI PCs had a mean platelet content of 2.89 ± 0.35 x 1011 . From baseline to day 7, pH remained stable (7.1 ± 0.1 vs. 7.0 ± 0.1), pO2 increased (11.3 ± 2.4 vs. 18.3 ± 3.5 kPa) as did LDH (201 ± 119 vs. 324 ± 203 U/L) and lactate (3.6 ± 1.7 vs. 12.1 ± 1.5 mmol/L) (all p

In vitro studies have thoroughly documented age-dependent impact of storage lesions in packed red blood cells (pRBC) on erythrocyte oxygen carrying capacity. While studies have examined the effect of pRBC age on patient outcome only few data exist on the microcirculation as their primary site of action. In this secondary analysis we examined the relationship between age of pRBC and changes of microcirculatory flow (MCF) in 54 patients based on data from the Basel Bedside assessment Microcirculation Transfusion Limit study (Ba2MiTraL) on effects of pRBC on sublingual MCF. Mean change from pre- to post-transfusion proportion of perfused vessels (∆PPV) was + 8.8% (IQR − 0.5 to 22.5), 5.5% (IQR 0.1 to 10.1), and + 4.7% (IQR − 2.1 to 6.5) after transfusion of fresh (≤ 14 days old), medium (15 to 34 days old), and old (≥ 35 days old) pRBC, respectively. Values for the microcirculatory flow index (MFI) were + 0.22 (IQR − 0.1 to 0.6), + 0.22 (IQR 0.0 to 0.3), and + 0.06 (IQR − 0.1 to 0.3) for the fresh, medium, and old pRBC age groups, respectively. Lower ∆PPV and transfusion of older blood correlated with a higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score of patients upon admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) (p = 0.01). However, regression models showed no overall significant correlation between pRBC age and ∆PPV (p = 0.2). Donor or recipient sex had no influence. We detected no significant effect of pRBC on microcirculation. Patients with a higher SOFA score upon ICU admission might experience a negative effect on the ∆PPV after transfusion of older blood.

The German Federal Constitutional Court’s climate decision provides a nuanced acknowledgment of climate change’s constitutional relevance. In this Article, the author critically assesses how the Court innovatively sought to capture the intergenerational equity dimension of climate mitigation through a combination of negative and positive duties stemming from constitutional law. The Article demonstrates how despite progressive findings on intergenerational equity and the innovative invocation of negative duties, the operative part of the decision turned out to be rather limited. Because of remaining uncertainties about the allowable national carbon budget, the Court was unable to require the legislator to enact a stricter reduction path. The author argues that the Court could have narrowed remaining uncertainties, without engaging in judicial activism, by adopting an international and constitutional minimum approach to calculating the national budget and by adjusting the burden of proof. Finally, the Article highlights how the German legislator, by going beyond what was required by the Court “trapped itself” on an ambitious reduction path, opening opportunities for future constitutional complaints.

Introduction and objectives: Release kinetics of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) T and I in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are incompletely understood. We aimed to assess whether hs-cTnT/I release in early AMI is near linear. Methods: In a prospective diagnostic multicenter study the acute release of hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI within 1 and 2 hours from presentation to the emergency department was quantified using 3 hs-cTnT/I assays in patients with suspected AMI. The primary endpoint was correlation between hs-cTn changes from presentation to 1 hour vs changes from presentation to 2 hours, among all AMI patients and different prespecified subgroups. The final diagnosis was adjudicated by 2 independent cardiologists, based on serial hs-cTnT from the serial study blood samples and additional locally measured hs-cTn values. Results: Among 2437 patients with complete hs-cTnT data, AMI was the adjudicated diagnosis in 376 patients (15%). For hs-cTnT, the correlation coefficient between 0- to 1-hour change and 0- to 2 hour change was 0.931 (95%CI, 0.916-0.944), P

We aimed to assess the diagnostic utility of the Dimension EXL LOCI High-Sensitivity Troponin I (hs-cTnI-EXL) assay.This multicenter study included patients with chest discomfort presenting to the emergency department. Diagnoses were centrally and independently adjudicated by two cardiologists using all available clinical information. Adjudication was performed twice including serial measurements of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) I-Architect (primary analysis) and serial measurements of hs-cTnT-Elecsys (secondary analysis) in addition to the clinically used (hs)-cTn. The primary objective was to assess and compare the discriminatory performance of hs-cTnI-EXL, hs-cTnI-Architect and hs-cTnT-Elecsys for acute myocardial infarction (MI). Furthermore, we derived and validated a hs-cTnI-EXL-specific 0/1h-algorithm.Adjudicated MI was the diagnosis in 204/1454 (14%) patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for hs-cTnI-EXL was 0.94 (95%CI, 0.93-0.96), and comparable to hs-cTnI-Architect (0.95; 95%CI, 0.93-0.96) and hs-cTnT-Elecsys (0.93; 95%CI, 0.91-0.95). In the derivation cohort (n = 813), optimal criteria for rule-out of MI were9ng/L at presentation (if chest pain onset3h) or9ng/L and 0h-1h-change5ng/L, and for rule-in ≥160ng/L at presentation or 0h-1h-change ≥100ng/L. In the validation cohort (n = 345), these cut-offs ruled-out 56% of patients (negative predictive value 99.5% (95%CI, 97.1-99.9), sensitivity 97.8% (95%CI, 88.7-99.6)), and ruled-in 9% (positive predictive value 83.3% (95%CI, 66.4-92.7), specificity 98.3% (95%CI, 96.1-99.3)). Secondary analyses using adjudication based on hs-cTnT measurements confirmed the findings.The overall performance of the hs-cTnI-EXL was comparable to best-validated hs-cTnT/I assays and an assay-specific 0/1h-algorithm safely rules out and accurately rules in acute MI.ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00470587.

Aims After rule-out of non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) with the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) 0/1 h-algorithms, it is unclear which patients require further anatomical or functional cardiac testing. To test the safety and efficacy of the no-objective-testing (NOT)-rules after NSTEMI rule-out by the ESC 0/1 h-algorithms. Methods and results International, prospective, diagnostic multicentre study enrolling adult patients presenting with chest pain to the emergency department. Central adjudication of final diagnosis by two independent cardiologists using information including cardiac imaging. Primary endpoints were the safety and efficacy of the NOT-rules for the rule-out of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Secondary endpoints included 365-day and 2-year MACE. Among 4804 and 4569 patients with available 0/1 h high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn)T-Elecsys or hs-cTnI-Architect concentrations, 2783 (58%) and 2252 (49%) were eligible for application of the NOT-rules after rule-out of NSTEMI by the ESC hs-cTnT/I-0/1h-algorithm. The first rule identified 26% of patients with a sensitivity of 100% (95%CI 98.3–100%) and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100% (95% CI, n.c.). The second and third rules both identified 31% of patients with a sensitivity of 99.5% (95% CI 97.4–99.9%) and a NPV of 99.9% (95% CI 99.2–99.9%). Similar findings emerged for hs-cTnI. High safety was confirmed for rule-out of 365-day and 2-year MACE and proven to be superior to the HEART Score. Conclusion All three NOT-rules performed very well for rule-out of MACE. The third NOT-rule best balanced feasibility, safety, and efficacy by identifying nearly one out of three patients as low-risk and may not require further cardiac testing. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00470587

Both preoperative anemia and the transfusion of red blood cells have been associated with increased morbidity and mortality after cardiac surgery. To reduce the need for blood transfusion during surgery and improve patient outcomes, patient blood management programs have been developed. A primary focus of patient blood management in the preoperative period is the identification, diagnosis, and treatment of preoperative anemia, as anemia is associated with an increased risk of preoperative blood transfusion. In this narrative review, the authors focus on the laboratory screening of anemia before surgery and the evidence and limitations of different treatment strategies in anemic patients scheduled for cardiac surgery. To accurately correct preoperative anemia, the timely detection and definition of the etiology of anemia before elective cardiac surgery are crucial. Multiple randomized studies have been performed using preoperative iron supplementation and/or administration of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Although preoperative iron substitution in patients with iron deficiency is recommended, the evidence of its effectiveness is limited. In patients with nonpure iron deficiency anemia, combined therapy with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents and intravenous iron is recommended. Combined therapy might effectively reduce the need for red blood cell transfusion, even if applied shortly before cardiac surgery. The therapeutic effect on morbidity and mortality remains unclear. Nonetheless, the timely preoperative assessment of anemia and determination of iron status, eventually leading to targeted therapy, should become a standard of care and might potentially improve patient outcomes.

Immune-mediated cytopenia after allogeneic haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation is rare. The pathophysiology of immune-mediated anaemia, thrombocytopenia, and neutropenia, which occur alone or in combination with other cytopenias, is unclear and most probably a consequence of immune dysregulation. Risk factors for this complication have been identified in retrospective studies but these should be interpreted with caution and should not be generalised to this heterogeneous patient population. Diagnosis is challenging, requires awareness of such complications, and has to be differentiated from a multitude of other, and sometimes overlapping, possible complications. The clinical course of immune-mediated cytopenia is highly variable. Treatment requires an interdisciplinary approach and ranges from observation to symptomatic measures and directed therapies. Intensive immunosuppression is associated with an increased risk of infections and relapse, and current treatments are based on approaches in patients who have not undergone transplantation. Plasma cell-directed therapies, immunomodulation, and receptor-stimulating agents can be used to treat immune-mediated cytopenia.

BACKGROUND: Disease morbidity of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) has been increasing over the last decades. Since the 1990s, however, no extensive seroprevalence studies on TBE in humans have been performed in Switzerland. Here we assessed the prevalence of anti-TBE virus (TBEV) antibodies among different groups of the Swiss blood donor population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was carried out from July 2014 to January 2015. Blood donors participating in the study (n=9,328) were asked to fill in a questionnaire relating to vaccination against or infection with different flaviviruses, and blood samples were collected. All samples were screened for the presence of anti-TBEV IgG antibodies using ELISA testing. Seropositivity rates in different groups of blood donors were compared using Chi square tests with Bonferroni correction. RESULTS: In 2014 and 2015, 24.6% of healthy Swiss blood donors indicated vaccination against TBE. Among vaccinated blood donors, antibody prevalence was significantly higher in younger (

To investigate the class-dependent properties of anti-viral IgM antibodies, we use membrane antigen capture activated cell sorting to isolate spike-protein-specific B cells from donors recently infected with SARS-CoV-2, allowing production of recombinant antibodies. We isolate 20, spike-protein-specific antibodies of classes IgM, IgG, and IgA, none of which shows any antigen-independent binding to human cells. Two antibodies of class IgM mediate virus neutralization at picomolar concentrations, but this potency is lost following artificial switch to IgG. Although, as expected, the IgG versions of the antibodies appear to have lower avidity than their IgM parents, this is not sufficient to explain the loss of potency.

AimsMajor adverse cardiac events (MACE) triggered by non-cardiac surgery are prognostically important perioperative complications. However, due to often asymptomatic presentation, the incidence and timing of postoperative MACE are incompletely understood.Methods and resultsWe conducted a prospective observational study implementing a perioperative screening for postoperative MACE [cardiovascular death (CVD), acute heart failure (AHF), haemodynamically relevant arrhythmias, spontaneous myocardial infarction (MI), and perioperative myocardial infarction/injury (PMI)] in patients at increased cardiovascular risk (≥65 years OR ≥45 years with history of cardiovascular disease) undergoing non-cardiac surgery at a tertiary hospital. All patients received serial measurements of cardiac troponin to detect asymptomatic MACE. Among 2265 patients (mean age 73 years, 43.4% women), the incidence of MACE was 15.2% within 30 days, and 20.6% within 365 days. CVD occurred in 1.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9–1.8] and in 3.7% (95% CI 3.0–4.5), haemodynamically relevant arrhythmias in 1.2% (95% CI 0.9–1.8) and in 2.1% (95% CI 1.6–2.8), AHF in 1.6% (95% CI 1.2–2.2) and in 4.2% (95% CI 3.4–5.1), spontaneous MI in 0.5% (95% CI 0.3–0.9) and in 1.6% (95% CI 1.2–2.2), and PMI in 13.2% (95% CI 11.9–14.7) and in 14.8% (95% CI 13.4–16.4) within 30 days and within 365 days, respectively. The MACE-incidence was increased above presumed baseline rate until Day 135 (95% CI 104–163), indicating a vulnerable period of 3–5 months.ConclusionOne out of five high-risk patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery will develop one or more MACE within 365 days. The risk for MACE remains increased for about 5 months after non-cardiac surgery.Trial registrationhttps://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02573532.

The impact of obesity on the incidence of perioperative myocardial infarction/injury (PMI) and mortality following non-cardiac surgery is not well understood. We performed a prospective diagnostic study enrolling consecutive patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, who were considered at increased cardiovascular risk. All patients were screened for PMI, defined as an absolute increase from preoperative to postoperative sensitive/high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) concentrations. The body mass index (BMI) was classified according to the WHO classification (underweight 40 kg/m2). The incidence of PMI and all-cause mortality at 365 days, both stratified according to BMI. We enrolled 4277 patients who had undergone 5413 surgeries. The median BMI was 26 kg/m2 (interquartile range 23–30 kg/m2). Incidence of PMI showed a non-linear relationship with BMI and ranged from 12% (95% CI 9–14%) in obesity class I to 19% (95% CI 17–42%) in the underweight group. This was confirmed in multivariable analysis with obesity class I. showing the lowest risk (adjusted OR 0.64; 95% CI 0.49–0.83) for developing PMI. Mortality at 365 days was lower in all obesity groups compared to patients with normal body weight (e.g., unadjusted OR 0.54 (95% CI 0.39–0.73) and adjusted OR 0.52 (95% CI 0.38–0.71) in obesity class I). Obesity class I was associated with a lower incidence of PMI, and obesity in general was associated with a lower all-cause mortality at 365 days.

Graphical abstract Fig. 1 Diagnostic performance of D-dimer using two different assays in patients presenting with syncope. A Left: Receiver-operating characteristic curves quantifying the diagnostic performance of Innovance® D-dimer (blue) and hs-Loci-Innovance® D-dimer (red) for the diagnosis of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Right: Clinical application of D-dimer using the 2-level Wells-score with age-adjusted1 or fixed cutoffs versus the YEARS-algorithm with probability-adjusted cut offs2. B Left: Specificity for different cufoffs of Innovance® D-dimer (blue) and hs-Loci-Innovance® D-dimer (red) for the diagnosis of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Right: Percentage of patients ruled-in and correctly identified VTE patients for different cutoffs of Innovance® D-dimer (blue) and hs-Loci-Innovance® D-dimer (red). 1In patients 50 years or younger, D-dimer concentration 2YEARS-algorithm: assessment of only three items from the Wells-score (clinical signs of deep vein thrombosis, hemoptysis, pulmonary embolism the most likely diagnosis) and using a D-dimer test threshold of 0.5 mg/l in presence, and 1.0 mg/l in absence of one of the YEARS-items

Background Transmission chains within small urban areas (accommodating∼30% of the European population) greatly contribute to case burden and economic impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and should be a focus for preventive measures to achieve containment. Here, at very high spatio-temporal resolution, we analysed determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a European urban area, Basel-City (Switzerland). Methodology. We combined detailed epidemiological, intra-city mobility, and socioeconomic data-sets with whole-genome-sequencing during the first SARS-CoV-2 wave. For this, we succeeded in sequencing 44% of all reported cases from Basel-City and performed phylogenetic clustering and compartmental modelling based on the dominating viral variant (B.1-C15324T; 60% of cases) to identify drivers and patterns of transmission. Based on these results we simulated vaccination scenarios and corresponding healthcare-system burden (intensive-care-unit occupancy). Principal Findings. Transmissions were driven by socioeconomically weaker and highly mobile population groups with mostly cryptic transmissions, whereas amongst more senior population transmission was clustered. Simulated vaccination scenarios assuming 60-90% transmission reduction, and 70-90% reduction of severe cases showed that prioritizing mobile, socioeconomically weaker populations for vaccination would effectively reduce case numbers. However, long-term intensive-care-unit occupation would also be effectively reduced if senior population groups were prioritized, provided there were no changes in testing and prevention strategies. Conclusions. Reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission through vaccination strongly depends on the efficacy of the deployed vaccine. A combined strategy of protecting risk groups by extensive testing coupled with vaccination of the drivers of transmission (i.e. highly mobile groups) would be most effective at reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within an urban area., medRxiv

This article assesses the implications of national climate litigation for what is termed ‘the international rule of law’. Starting from the finding that the current international climate treaty regime lacks several elements of an international rule of law, such as legal bindingness, clarity, and justiciability, the author explores what national courts contribute to filling these gaps. Deviating from a linear progression narrative, which is prevalent in existing literature, this article provides a more nuanced and complex picture. Whereas successful climate litigation is hardly imaginable without reliance on internationally agreed-upon facts – such as reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and global average temperature levels deemed ‘dangerous’ – doctrinally decisions do not represent a turn toward a stricter rule of international climate law. Instead of applying and progressively developing climate treaties, courts thus far have primarily used these provisions only to develop national constitutional law and regional human rights law. The created system of highly contextual national rule(s) of climate law is a fragmented one which is regionally limited to a few states predominantly located in Western Europe. Consequently, it is a far cry from a truly global rule of international climate law.

Perioperative myocardial infarction/injury (PMI) is a frequent, often missed and incompletely understood complication of noncardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether patient- or procedure-related factors are more strongly associated to the development of PMI in patients undergoing repeated noncardiac surgery.In this prospective observational study, patient- and procedure-related factors were evaluated for contribution to PMI using: 1) logistic regression modelling with PMI as primary endpoint, 2) evaluation of concordance of PMI occurrence in the first and the second noncardiac surgery (surgery 1 and 2). and 3) the correlation of the extent of cardiomyocyte injury quantified by high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T between surgery 1 and 2. The secondary endpoint was all-cause mortality associated with PMI reoccurrence in surgery 2.Among 784 patients undergoing repeated noncardiac surgery (in total 1'923 surgical procedures), 116 patients (14.8%) experienced PMI during surgery 1. Among these, PMI occurred again in surgery 2 in 35/116 (30.2%) patients. However, the vast majority of patients developing PMI during surgery 2 (96/131, 73.3%) had not developed PMI during surgery 1 (phi-coefficient 0.150, p 0.001). The correlation between the extent of cardiomyocyte injury occurring during surgery 1 and 2 was 0.153. All-cause mortality following a second PMI in surgery 2 was dependent on time since surgery (adjusted hazard ratio 5.6 within 30 days and 2.4 within 360 days).In high-risk patients, procedural factors are more strongly associated with occurrence of PMI than patient factors, but patient factors are also contributors to the occurrence of PMI.

Background: Serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) is a biomarker of neuronal damage that is used not only to monitor disease activity and response to drugs and to prognosticate disease course in people with multiple sclerosis on the group level. The absence of representative reference values to correct for physiological age-dependent increases in sNfL has limited the diagnostic use of this biomarker at an individual level. We aimed to assess the applicability of sNfL for identification of people at risk for future disease activity by establishing a reference database to derive reference values corrected for age and body-mass index (BMI). Furthermore, we used the reference database to test the suitability of sNfL as an endpoint for group-level comparison of effectiveness across disease-modifying therapies. Methods: For derivation of a reference database of sNfL values, a control group was created, comprising participants with no evidence of CNS disease taking part in four cohort studies in Europe and North America. We modelled the distribution of sNfL concentrations in function of physiological age-related increase and BMI-dependent modulation, to derive percentile and Z score values from this reference database, via a generalised additive model for location, scale, and shape. We tested the reference database in participants with multiple sclerosis in the Swiss Multiple Sclerosis Cohort (SMSC). We compared the association of sNfL Z scores with clinical and MRI characteristics recorded longitudinally to ascertain their respective disease prognostic capacity. We validated these findings in an independent sample of individuals with multiple sclerosis who were followed up in the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis registry. Findings: We obtained 10 133 blood samples from 5390 people (median samples per patient 1 [IQR 1–2] in the control group). In the control group, sNfL concentrations rose exponentially with age and at a steeper increased rate after approximately 50 years of age. We obtained 7769 samples from 1313 people (median samples per person 6·0 [IQR 3·0–8·0]). In people with multiple sclerosis from the SMSC, sNfL percentiles and Z scores indicated a gradually increased risk for future acute (eg, relapse and lesion formation) and chronic (disability worsening) disease activity. A sNfL Z score above 1·5 was associated with an increased risk of future clinical or MRI disease activity in all people with multiple sclerosis (odds ratio 3·15, 95% CI 2·35–4·23; p