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As droughts have widespread social and ecological impacts, it is critical to develop long-term adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce drought vulnerability. Climate models are important in quantifying drought changes. Here, we assess the ability of 285 CMIP6 historical simulations, from 17 models, to reproduce drought duration and severity in three observational data sets using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). We used summary statistics beyond the mean and standard deviation, and devised a novel probabilistic framework, based on the Hellinger distance, to quantify the difference between observed and simulated drought characteristics. Results show that many simulations have less than ±10% error in reproducing the observed drought summary statistics. The hypothesis that simulations and observations are described by the same distribution cannot be rejected for more than 80% of the grids based on our H distance framework. No single model stood out as demonstrating consistently better performance over large regions of the globe. The variance in drought statistics among the simulations is higher in the tropics compared to other latitudinal zones. Though the models capture the characteristics of dry spells well, there is considerable bias in low precipitation values. Good model performance in terms of SPI does not imply good performance in simulating low precipitation. Our study emphasizes the need to probabilistically evaluate climate model simulations in order to both pinpoint model weaknesses and identify a subset of best-performing models that are useful for impact assessments.

Satellite imagery provides a global perspective for studying river hydrology and water quality, but clouds remain a fundamental limitation of optical sensors. Explicit studies of this problem were limited to specific locations or regions. In this study, we characterize the global severity of this limitation by analyzing 22 years of daily satellite cloud cover data and modeled river discharge for a global sample 21,642 river reaches of diverse sizes and climates. Our results show that the bias in observed river discharge is highly organized in space, particularly affecting Tropical and Arctic rivers. Given the fundamental nature of this cloud limitation, optical satellites will always provide a biased representation of river conditions. We discuss several strategies to mitigate bias, including modeling, data fusion, and temporal averaging, yet these methods introduce their own challenges and uncertainties. Plain Language Summary: This study examines how optical satellite imagery, which is vital for understanding rivers worldwide, is hindered by clouds specifically when observing rivers. We analyzed 22 years of daily data covering 21,642 sections of rivers of various sizes and climates. Our findings reveal that cloud cover significantly biases the distribution of river discharges we observe, especially for Tropical and Arctic rivers. This means that satellite images do not represent river conditions accurately. Our research provides the first comprehensive analysis of its extent and impact. Ultimately, while satellite technology continues to improve, clouds remain a challenge in obtaining precise river data, highlighting the need for innovative solutions. Key Points: We evaluated the impact of cloud cover on satellite optical remote sensing across a global sample of river reachesDirect optical satellite observations can present a highly biased, and geographically variable, view of river conditionsSeasonal relationships of clouds and discharge predict the ability of optical satellites to observe the distribution of river discharge [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) is a prototype software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation that automates the deployment of water resources nowcasting and forecasting applications. A spatially-enabled database is a key component of the software that can ingest a suite of satellite and model datasets while facilitating the interfacing with Geographic Information System (GIS) applications. The datasets ingested are obtained from numerous space-borne sensors and represent multiple components of the water cycle. The object-oriented design of the software allows for modularity and extensibility, showcased here with the coupling of the core hydrologic model with a crop growth model. RHEAS can exploit multi-threading to scale with increasing number of processors, while the database allows delivery of data products and associated uncertainty through a variety of GIS platforms. A set of three example implementations of RHEAS in the United States and Kenya are described to demonstrate the different features of the system in real-world applications.

Artificial manipulation of lake water levels through practices like winter water-level drawdown (WD) is prevalent across many regions, but the spatiotemporal patterns are not well documented due to limited in situ monitoring. Multi-sensor satellite remote sensing provides an opportunity to map and analyze drawdown frequency and metrics (timing, magnitude, duration) at broad scales. This study developed a cloud computing framework to process time series of synthetic aperture radar (Sentinel 1-SAR) and optical sensor (Landsat 8, Sentinel 2) data to characterize WD in 166 lakes across Massachusetts, USA, during 2016–2021. Comparisons with in situ logger data showed that the Sentinel 1-derived surface water area captured relative water-level fluctuations indicative of WD. A machine learning approach classified lakes as WD versus non-WD based on seasonal water-level fluctuations derived from Sentinel 1-SAR data. The framework mapped WD lakes statewide, revealing prevalence throughout Massachusetts with interannual variability. Results showed WDs occurred in over 75% of lakes during the study period, with high interannual variability in the number of lakes conducting WD. Mean WD magnitude was highest in the wettest year (2018) but % lake area exposure did not show any association with precipitation and varied between 8% to 12% over the 5-year period. WD start date was later and duration was longer in wet years, indicating climate mediation of WD implementation driven by management decisions. The data and tools developed provide an objective information resource to evaluate ecological impacts and guide management of this prevalent but understudied phenomenon. Overall, the results and interactive web tool developed as part of this study provide new hydrologic intelligence to inform water management and policies related to WD practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A model for the microwave emissions of multilayer dry snowpacks, based on dense media radiative transfer (DMRT) theory with the quasicrystalline approximation (QCA), provides more accurate results when compared to emissions determined by a homogeneous snowpack and other scattering models. The DMRT model accounts for adhesive aggregate effects, which leads to dense media Mie scattering by using a sticky particle model. With the multilayer model, we examined both the frequency and polarization dependence of brightness temperatures (Tb's) from representative snowpacks and compared them to results from a single-layer model and found that the multilayer model predicts higher polarization differences, twice as much, and weaker frequency dependence. We also studied the temporal evolution of Tb from multilayer snowpacks. The difference between Tb's at 18.7 and 36.5 GHz can be 5 K lower than the single-layer model prediction in this paper. By using the snowpack observations from the Cold Land Processes Field Experiment as input for both multi-and single-layer models, it shows that the multilayer Tb's are in better agreement with the data than the single-layer model. With one set of physical parameters, the multilayer QCA/DMRT model matched all four channels of Tb observations simultaneously, whereas the single-layer model could only reproduce vertically polarized Tb's. Also, the polarization difference and frequency dependence were accurately matched by the multilayer model using the same set of physical parameters. Hence, algorithms for the retrieval of snowpack depth or water equivalent should be based on multilayer scattering models to achieve greater accuracy. Index Terms--Dense media, dense media radiative transfer (DMRT) theory, layered media, microwave remote sensing, snow.