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Research shows that Google Trend indices can improve tourism-demand forecasts. Given the impact of the recent pandemic, this may prove to be an important predictor of tourism recovery in countries that are still struggling to recover, including South Africa. The purpose of this paper is firstly, to build on previous research that indicates that Google Trends improves tourism-demand forecasting by testing this within the context of tourism recovery. Secondly, this paper extends previous research by not only including Google Trends in time-series forecasting models but also typical tourism-demand covariates in an econometric specification. Finally, we test the performance of Google Trends in forecasting over a longer time period, because the destination country is a long-haul destination where more lead time may be required in decision-making. Additionally, this research contributes to the body of knowledge by including lower frequency data (quarterly) instead of the higher frequency data commonly used in current research, while also focusing on an important destination country in Africa. Due to the differing data frequencies, the MIDAS modelling approach is used. The MIDAS models are compared to typical time-series and naïve benchmarks. The findings show that monthly Google Trends improve forecasts on lower frequency data. Furthermore, forecasts that include Google Trends are more effective in forecasting one to two quarters ahead, pre-COVID. This trend changed after COVID, when Google Trends led to improved recovery forecasts even over a longer term.

Tourism is often promoted in Africa for its potential to inspire sustainable development and reduce poverty in rural areas, which host some of the most pristine natural attractions in the world. This research provides insights into the perceived influence of tourism on communities surrounding conservation areas and puts forward recommendations to improve tourism’s potential in poverty reduction and development in rural communities. The location of the study is the uKhahlamba Drakensburg Park (UDP), a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The study uses a mixed-method approach where 326 questionnaires were administered to households of three communities around the UDP, and five interviews were held with the UDPs’ community liaison officers and traditional community leaders. The results show residents are indifferent towards tourism, have low participation in tourism, and threaten the sustainability of tourism. This study recommends reimagined approaches that centre around developing and implementing community-based tourism structures within the area that will stimulate equitable development.

The world of travel and tourism have perhaps changed forever as a result of COVID-19; considered the worst global pandemic to affect the world, post World War II. The spread of the Coronavirus diseases was considerably attributed to the travel and tourism industry, and with the attempt to curb the spread of the virus, the industry experienced calamitous effects and suffered staggering financial losses. The same accounts for wildlife tourism (Southern Africa’s largest product) – bringing the hunting and ecotourism sector of South Africa to a complete standstill. The pandemic accompanied concerning and devastating effects, not only from a financial point of view, but also in terms of the conservation of these sectors within the industry. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis using the data obtained from the members of Wildlife Ranching South Africa (WRSA) to quantify the actual and potential financial losses in the private wildlife industry due to cancellations of hunters and ecotourists, live game sales and finally, game meat sales in the industry. From the results, the estimated financial impact of COVID-19 on the private wildlife industry is R6.694 billion (ZAR). The study made the following three contributions: Firstly, it determined the economic impact of COVID-19 on the private wildlife industry. Secondly, it provides the industry with a tangible document that can be used in securing funding and assistance from government and other non-profit organisations. Thirdly, it shows the importance of this industry to the South African economy and employment, although only applicable to private-owned reserves

Orientation: Beaches attract millions of visitors every year and this has an impact not only on the economy, the environment and the local community but also on current and future beachgoers. Research purpose: The aim of the article is to use expenditure-based segmentation to gain a greater understanding of beach visitor spending in order to identify different markets and the aspects they deem important. Motivation for the study: Although South Africa has a coastline of approximately 3900 km, little is known about the beachgoer to these beaches. This article contributes to the quantification of the economic benefits stemming from beach tourism and in understanding the factors that drive beach visitation. Research approach/design and method: During 2017/18, beachgoers to eight beaches in South Africa were surveyed and 1138 questionnaires were gathered. Using cluster analysis, four segments of beachgoers were identified. The differences between the various segments were explored by using analysis of variance and Pearson’s chi-square. Main findings: The high-spending markets can be distinguished by language, level of education and age, while sunbathing and relaxation are key beach activities. Six key motives for visiting beaches were identified. High-spending markets tend to visit Blue Flag beaches that offer good bathing conditions. Practical/managerial implications: This research identified four segments of visitors to South African beaches, ranging from low-spending locals to high-spending mixed market beachgoers. There are distinct differences between the segments, but important to all segments are the environment qualities of the beach in terms of both cleanliness and beach safety. Contribution/value-add: The research, therefore, concludes that two the main threats to beach tourism and destinations are (1) pollution of the oceans and (2) global warming.

Background: Around the world, domestic and regional travel is considered the backbone of the tourism industry, with as much as 80% of international visitors within the same region, however, various factors permit or deter tourists to move around freely. The arguments of tourism promoting trade and vice versa, are both valid. Since trade can promote tourism in Africa it implies that regional integration is necessary to foster regional tourism. Aim: This article seeks to determine whether trade theory is able to explain intra-African tourism. This was done by applying four theoretical models of international trade to bilateral African tourism flows. Method: Using panel data from 25 African countries over a 10-year period, this research shows that intra-African tourism flows can best be explained by the gravity theory. Results: Cultural and geographic proximity, as well as the development of the destination country, dictates intra-African tourism. Additionally, African countries that already have an advantage in worldwide tourism receipts also benefit from intra-African tourism. Conclusion: This research contributes to a greater understanding of the determinants that attract African travellers to other African countries, which holds important implications for both policymakers and destination managers.

Background: Consumers worldwide have recently become more aware that their consumption preferences and habits influence not only the environment, but also other people’s lives. These ‘ethical’ consumers are therefore said to consider the moral features of the product or service in their consumption decision. The most prominent ethical consumption label is the Fair Trade label, which was established to enhance the living and working conditions of those working on small-scale farm cooperatives in developing countries. Aim: This paper aims to determine wine tourists’ willingness to pay (WTP) for improved working and living conditions for wine farm workers. Setting: The research was conducted at the largest wine festival in South Africa, the Wacky Wine Festival in Robertson in the Western Cape, an area renowned for its wine and fruit products. Method: The concept of a socially acceptable logo on the wine bottle – signalling fair wages to the farm workers – was assessed by using a double-bounded contingent valuation approach. Wine tourists completed 397 questionnaires during the festival in June 2017. Results: The results indicate that 80% of wine tourists are willing to pay more for socially responsible wines. The responsible wine consumer is typically younger and a premium of R11 per bottle of wine would be accepted if it signals fair treatment of workers. Conclusion: The socially responsible wine tourist in South Africa is more concerned about quality and the moral implications of the wine than the price. There is support for the implementation of a socially responsible label for wine products.

The Cape Argus Pick n Pay Cycle Tour is a major event on the road cycling calendar. The majority of cyclists travel significant distances and participation produces a substantial carbon footprint. This paper examines participants’ willingness to pay to offset their carbon footprint. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to the literature by linking willingness to pay to attitudes towards or beliefs (green views) about the initiatives in place, to ensure a greener cycle tour. Factor analysis is used to identify different types of cyclists, based on their green views: those with green money, those who prefer green products and the “re-cyclers”. The results of the regression analysis reveal that socio-demographic variables and the right attitude towards the environment are significant predictors of stated willingness to pay for climate change mitigation.

The aim of this research was to determine the economic impact of trophy hunting in the wildlife industry of South Africa. The link to the questionnaire was distributed electronically by the Professional Hunters Association of South Africa (PHASA) as well as by SCI (Safari Club International) to the 7600 hunters who engaged in hunting activities in South Africa during 2015/16 and 362 responses were recorded. The annual amount spend by trophy hunters in this country is US$250 million. Using multiplier analysis based on the Social Account Matrix (SAM) of South Africa, the research revealed that trophy hunting annually contributes more than US$341 million to the South African economy and that it supports more than 17 000 employment opportunities. The agricultural sector benefits the most, holding important implications for rural development and poverty alleviation in the country. Keywords: Hunting, Economics, Poverty, Rural, Tourism, Multiplier

As South Africa’s popularity as a tourist destination increases, the need for skilled human capital also increases. The study of skills development and human capital in all sectors of the economy has long been topical as a means to support organisational progression that can eventually lead to economic growth. Estimates suggest that tourism and hospitality employ at least 10% of the global workforce and consequently prove to be a sector that cannot be readily ignored. However, because of the complex and consumption-based nature of the tourism sector, and the general scarcity of sector-related information, data on both demand and supply of skills are few and of a qualitative rather than a quantitative nature. This research addresses this gap and aims to forecast the demand for qualified labour in the South African hotel industry. The research methodology is twofold; firstly, hotel turnover is forecasted using univariate forecasting methods and data available from Statistics South Africa; secondly, employment elasticities were determined. Linking elasticity with turnover forecasts presents an estimate of the future demand for qualified labour in the hotel industry. In addition, the typical qualifications required are based on information obtained from CATHSSETA and a survey.

The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview and comparison of three related methods for modelling the short-run economic impact of events, namely the partial Input-Output (I-O), Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. An analysis of strengths and limitations of these different methods suggests that it may be considerations such as the underlying assumptions specific to each model, data collection, expected output, research objectives, and costs involved that determine the choice of modelling framework. Data from surveys conducted at the Aardklop National Arts Festival during 2010 were used in the comparative analyses, which were executed by means of two regional (i.e. provincial-level) models and one small-region (i.e. place-specific) model constructed for the small town.

This article will determine the socio-economic impact of South Africa’s largest urban national park, and the one that attracts the most visitors. Because national parks have more functions than mere conservation, the following questions arise: “What economic and social impacts are created by such parks?” and “How do communities benefit from allocating land for conservation?” Little research on this topic has been conducted in Southern Africa, and this research therefore contributes to our knowledge. Two surveys were conducted. One focused on the communities surrounding the park and the other on visitors to the park. A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) determined the economic value. Results showed that, although the park attracts the most visitors, it does not generate the greatest income when compared to other national parks. Results concerning the community survey revealed that the surrounding communities have very positive perceptions, although they believe the impacts to be more economic than social. Problem areas were also identified.

Even though risks certainly influence travel and tourism patterns, very little research has been conducted into how the industry generally perceives and manages risks. This article aims to (i) identify the risks the South African tourism industry deems important; (ii) construct a matrix for assessing the various risks identified and (iii) determine whether sectors of the industry rate the importance of risks differently. In total, there were 212 responses to the questionnaire in the survey on South African tourism businesses. The statistical analysis included a factor analysis and an ANOVA (analysis of variance). Nine factors were identified and the ANOVA confirmed that sectors do perceive differing levels of importance in the various risks. The risk assessment matrix showed that internal risks are rated among the most important, even though little attention is paid to these in the literature.

The present paper investigates the relationship between Competitive Intelligence (CI) factors, characteristics, information sources, needs, requirements and the export intensity of exporting companies in South Africa. We establish whether there are significant differences between firms, grouped according to export intensity with respect to awareness, use, information sources and attitude towards CI activities. A questionnaire was developed and sent to exporting firms, resulting in a usable sample of 309 South African respondents. These firms are grouped according to export intensity, and CI practices between groups are compared. The results show that export intensive firms appear to be more aware and supportive of CI activities than less export intensive firms.

The Kruger National Park is one of the most visited national parks in the world and one of South Africa’s prime tourism destinations. It attracts more than 1 million visitors per year and, as such, plays an important role in the regional and national economy. The article aims to assess the extent to which socio-demographic and behavioural indicators influence the spending of tourists to the Park. From 2001-2007 surveys have been conducted amongst tourists to the Park including a number of socio-demographic, behavioural and motivational questions, totalling 2 904 questionnaires used in the analysis. The methodology includes both cross-sectional regression analysis and pseudo-panel data analysis to identify and compare possible influences on spending. Findings indicate that, even though a combination of socio-demographic, behavioural and motivational factors influence spending at National Parks, behavioural indicators seem to be the most important and consistent influencer.

Purpose: The aim of this paper is to model and forecast tourism to South Africa from the country's main intercontinental tourism markets. These include Great Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, the United States of America and France. Problem investigated: Tourism to South Africa has grown substantially since the first democratic elections in 1994. It is currently the third largest industry in the country and a vital source of foreign exchange earnings. Tourist arrivals continue to grow annually, and have shown some resilience to a number of emerging market crises, including the terrorist attacks in the USA. Business success, marketing decisions, government's investment policy as well as macroeconomic policy are influenced by the accuracy of tourism forecasts, since the tourism product comprises a number of services that cannot be accumulated. Accurate forecasts of tourism demand are paramount to ensure the availability of such services when demanded. In addition, the seasonal nature of tourism leads to a pattern of excess capacity followed by shortage in capacity. Method: Since univariate time series modelling has proved to be a very successful method for forecasting tourist arrivals, it is also the method employed in this paper. The naïve model is tested against a standard ARIMA model, as well as the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and seasonal-non-seasonal ARIMA models. Forecasting accuracy is assessed using the mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error and Theill's U of the various models. Monthly tourist arrivals from 1994 to 2006 are used in the analysis, and arrivals are forecasted for 2007. Findings: The results show that seasonal ARIMA models deliver the most accurate predictions of arrivals over three time horizons, namely three months, six months and 12 months. Value: This paper is the first tourist arrivals forecast using South African data for the country as a whole, and therefore it forms an interesting case study as a long haul and growing tourist destination. Conclusion: The univariate forecasts provide fairly accurate forecasts of tourist arrivals in South Africa, especially over the short run. As such, it is understandable why it remains a popular approach to forecast tourist arrivals. However, this method does not make provision for assessing the influence of external events and therefore its policy application is limited.

Events and festivals are hosted with the expectation that they hold many benefits for the host communities. These benefits include employment, income generation, and increasing tourist numbers, thereby improving the quality of life of the host community. However, little is known about the socio-economic impact of arts festivals, especially in the South African context. Hence, the purpose of this article was to determine the socio-economic impact of the Klein Karoo National Arts Festival (KKNK) on the community of Oudtshoorn. This festival is the largest arts festival, both in terms of visitor numbers as well as income generation, in South Africa. In order to achieve the goal of the research, three surveys were conducted: firstly, a community survey; secondly, a business survey; and, finally, a visitor survey. The results indicate that the KKNK contributes significantly to the economy and community of Oudtshoorn. From a social point of view, however, the respondents indicated that the festival benefits the community more than the individual. To increase the positive socio-economic outcomes of the KKNK, the festival organisers have to focus on greater participation by, and communication with, all stakeholders, especially the local community.

In South Africa tourism is regarded as a growth catalyst and a contributor towards the economic upliftment of poorer regions. The magnitude of the impact of tourist spending depends on the extent of leakages from the region, and the ability of the region to create backward and forward linkages. It is argued that the spatial implications of tourism might, inter alia, depend on the relative impacts of domestic versus international tourist spending. Using an input-output model, support was found for the notion that, from a regional development perspective, there should be an emphasis on the development of the domestic tourism market in the short term. As a long-term strategy, investment in transport services and infrastructure to reduce path dependency effects, more inherent in international tourism, is proposed.

This paper models tourism demand for South Africa from the UK and the USA, using an almost ideal demand system. An error-correction almost ideal demand system (EC-AIDS) is applied to quantify the responsiveness of UK and USA tourism demand for South Africa, relative to changes in tourism prices and expenditure or income. Short-term own-price, cross-price and expenditure elasticities are derived from the EC-AIDS models. One of the key findings of the paper is that tourism from the UK and USA is not sensitive to price changes in South Africa in the short term. Tourism to South Africa is found to be more income-elastic than price-elastic, indicating that the country is vulnerable to changing world economic conditions. Even though price competitiveness does not yet seem to be a key concern, significant substitution effects are present, with especially Spain and Malaysia benefiting from a decline in South Africa’s price competitiveness.

This article aims to apply expenditure-based segmentation to visitors to the Klein Karoo National Arts Festival. Surveys conducted at the Festival from 2005 to 2011 and ANOVA analyses were used to divide the visitors into low, medium and high spenders based on total expenditure. Results show that the high-spending market at the Festival was distinguishable from the other segments on the basis of their longer length of stay, older age, and higher income. The results can assist festival organisers and marketers in future development and marketing strategies that allow for sustainable development.

South African National Parks (SANParks) plays a major role in the tourism industry and has three primary functions, namely to conserve biodiversity, to create tourism and recreational opportunities and to build strong community relations. These parks, therefore, have a definite socio-economic impact on adjacent communities, although little is known about this impact. The main aim of this study was to determine the socio-economic impact of Africa’s oldest marine park, namely Tsitsikamma National Park, which forms part of the newly created Garden Route National Park. This was done by conducting three surveys during April 2008: a visitor’s survey (156 respondents), a community survey (132 respondents) and a business survey (11 respondents). We found that the park has a positive economic impact on the surrounding area and that the community exhibits a favourable attitude towards Tsitsikamma National Park. The results also differed when compared to similar studies conducted at other national parks in South Arica and one of the main reasons for this was that the park is located in a touristic area. For a greater impact however, the park should expand its marine activities, while communication with the local community could also be improved. Conservation implications: Good community relations and ecotourism activities are important components of good conservation practices. This research indicates that tourism activities not only generated funds for conservation, but also benefited the local communities of Tsitsikamma National Park. The positive attitude of local communities makes conservation of biodiversity more sustainable.

The Addo Elephant National Park is one of only a few national parks in the world that offers the Big 7 experience and is therefore one of South Africa’s prime tourism destinations. The park plays an important role in the regional economy and has become a hub for tourism development. The aim of this article is to determine the extent to which socio-demographic and behavioural and motivational indicators influence the spending of tourists to the park. A better understanding of the latter could help marketers and planners to increase the economic impact of the park. Since 2001, surveys have been conducted among tourists to the park and have included a number of socio-demographic, behavioural and motivational questions. In this analysis, 537 questionnaires were used. The methodology used includes factor analysis, cross-sectional regression analysis and pseudo-panel data analysis to determine and compare possible influences on spending. The research identifies six motives for tourists travelling to the Addo Elephant National Park; these are nature, activities, family and socialisation, escape, attractions and photography. The research found that a combination of socio-demographic and motivational factors influences visitor spending decisions. Added to this, the research confi rms that tourist attractions, including national parks, differ from one another and that the variables that influence spending therefore also differ.

National parks in South Africa are seen as major tourism assets due to the wildlife and various activities for international and local visitors. Little is known of the socio-economic contribution of these parks to their respective local economies. The purpose of this research was to determine the socio-economic impact of the Karoo National Park (Karoo NP) in South Africa, especially the economic impact of the Karoo NP on the local economy, the impact of tourism business development in the Karoo district, and how the park affects the community. Three surveys were used to determine the socio-economic impact: a community survey, a business survey and a tourist survey. The results show that the park has an impact in terms of production, income generation and employment in the area, but this impact is not as significant as that of other national parks in South Africa. A small percentage (4%) of businesses in Beaufort West owe their existence to the Karoo NP, but most rely on tourist spending. For the park to have a greater impact, it is imperative to increase accommodation capacity, offer more activities and promote activities and attractions in the region. Conservation implication: The importance of this article lies in the economic value that conservation management generates as well as identifying the benefits that communities derive from the existence of a national park. It also supports the notion that conservation entails more than just conserving fauna and flora and highlights the interdependence of conservation, tourism and community participation.