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The endangered and endemic Nubian dragon blood tree, Dracaena ombet, has been feared extirpated from core distribution areas in the Red Sea Hills, Sudan, after reported mass death events in the 20th century. Populations of dragon tree species are generally reported to be in decline, with a noticeable lack of recruitment and possible poor resilience. Rare recruitment events are, however, normal for species with remnant population dynamics, and when eventually occurring, such events can restore seemingly degraded populations. In response to recently reported observations of dracaena saplings in a historically core distribution area of the Red Sea Hills, we assess the status of this long-lived arboreal species. We describe a current realized niche, investigate a potential range shift by comparing the spatial distribution of saplings and older individuals, and assess population recovery based on pre-disturbance system identity derived from qualitative, historical observations. We document a beginning recovery of the dracaena population in the study area. Around half of the mapped population are individuals in the sapling stage, and they are in good health. Its current realized niche is described by higher altitudes, steeper slopes, more concave landscape forms and east-facing aspects compared to areas where dracaena individuals are absent. However, for the new generation of dracaena saplings we find signs of a leaning range shift where saplings are shifted towards higher altitudes near the mist-influenced escarpment. A full collapse and eventual extirpation of the endangered Dracaena ombet population may at best be averted, or at least delayed in the study area. Our resilience analysis indicates that a full recovery will be a slow process due to the inherent natural climate variability of arid lands, only allowing sporadic regeneration. Considering this species’ information legacy, saplings seem to be well equipped to survive such variability, but perhaps within a restricted safe operating space. Conservation measures should therefore be taken to secure the survival of the new generation along with broader spatial scale studies to confirm whether our findings reflect a regional phenomenon.

Our study focuses on the keystone species Acacia tortilis and is the first to investigate the effect of domestic ungulates and aridity on seed viability and germination over an extensive part of the Eastern Sahara. Bruchids infest its seeds and reduce their viability and germination, but ingestion by ruminant herbivores diminishes infestation levels and enhances/promotes seed viability and germination. The degree of these effects seems to be correlated with animal body mass. Significantly reduced numbers of wild ruminant ungulates have increased the potential importance of domestic animals and pastoral nomadism for the functionality of arid North African and Middle Eastern ecosystems. We sampled seeds (16,543) from A. tortilis in eight areas in three regions with different aridity and land use. We tested the effect of geography and sampling context on seed infestation using random effects logistic regressions. We did a randomized and balanced germination experiment including 1193 seeds, treated with different manure. Germination time and rates across geography, sampling context, and infestation status were analyzed using time-to-event analyses, Kaplan–Meier curves and proportional hazards Cox regressions. Bruchid infestation is very high (80%), and the effects of context are significant. Neither partial infestation nor adding manure had a positive effect on germination. There is a strong indication that intact, uningested seeds from acacia populations in the extremely arid Western Desert germinate more slowly and have a higher fraction of hard seeds than in the Eastern Desert and the Red Sea Hills. For ingested seeds in the pastoralist areas we find that intact seeds from goat dung germinate significantly better than those from camel dung. This is contrary to the expected body-mass effect. There is no effect of site or variation in tribal management. publishedVersion