1. Estimating critical rainfall for flash flood warning using integrated hydrologic-hydrodynamic modelling
- Author
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Konstantinos Papoulakos, George Mitsopoulos, Evangelos Baltas, and Anastasios I. Stamou
- Abstract
Flash floods are one of the most severe natural hazards worldwide; they can occur within a few minutes or hours, and can move at very high flow velocities, striking with violence and little warning. Early warning of flash floods is extremely important for vital risk mitigation and requires the knowledge of the critical rainfall producing flooding that is typically considered as “warning index”. The small spatial and temporal scales at which flash floods occur make the prediction of critical rainfall challenging, particularly in data-poor environments, where high-resolution weather models and advanced monitoring networks may not be available.In this paper that is based on the Master thesis performed by the first of the authors, we present a methodology to estimate the critical rainfall for flash flooding based on an integrated hydrologic-hydrodynamic model. The model is applied in the area of interest for various combinations of rainfall - soil moisture conditions to (1) determine input hydrographs that are used as boundary conditions for the hydrodynamic model, and (2) to calculate the distribution of the “critical hazard” in the cells of the 2D computational domain. In the present work, we define critical hazard combining the main hydrodynamic characteristics that are water depth and flow velocity. We import all calculated “critical hazard” values into a GIS-based database. We apply the integrated model in the town of Mandra in Greece, which was stricken by a flash flood on the 15th of November 2017 that was the third most disastrous “November” flood in Attica, for a relatively large number of scenarios-combinations of rainfall - soil moisture conditions to determine critical rainfall values and to compare them with values found in the literature from similar catchment areas.
- Published
- 2022