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Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 ∘C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge.

This chapter reviews interactions between climate tipping systems and assesses the potential risk of cascading effects. After a definition of tipping system interactions, we map out the current state of the literature on specific interactions between climate tipping systems that may be important for the overall stability of the climate system. For this, we gather evidence from model simulations, observations and conceptual understanding, as well as archetypal examples of palaeoclimate reconstructions where propagating transitions were potentially at play. This chapter concludes by identifying crucial knowledge gaps in tipping system interactions that should be resolved in order to improve risk assessments of cascading transitions under future climate change scenarios.

Understanding the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) behaviour during the late Pleistocene has been largely based on the wind-driven upwelling records from the Arabian Sea. However, it remains unclear the extent to which these records can also be used to infer a concomitant signal of monsoon rainfall, or how the two ISM components, rainfall and wind, are linked on millennial timescales. In order to isolate a primary signal of ISM rainfall, we exploit two deep sea sediment cores from the northern Bay of Bengal (Site U1446) and Andaman Sea (Site U1448), both situated proximal to the South Asian continent, and thus ideally situated for capturing ISM rainfall and fluvial runoff. By comparing our multi-proxy ISM rainfall and runoff records with published ISM wind-driven records from the Arabian Sea, we observe pronounced decoupling of the rainfall and wind components of the ISM across Marine Isotope Stage 5/6 (∼140–70 thousand years ago). We reveal that the relative dominance of barometric dynamics (wind) and the thermodynamic (rainfall) components of the monsoon shifts with changes in background climate state. This finding constitutes an important consideration for the interpretation of past monsoon reconstructions. By comparing our new ISM rainfall records with high latitude climate records, we show that moisture export from low-latitudes, via the monsoon, could have preconditioned the high latitudes for ice sheet growth during glacial inceptions.

The geological history of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) before the Pleistocene is not well-constrained, primarily due to a lack of available continuous sediment archives. Previous studies have noted an intensification of SAM precipitation and atmospheric circulation during the middle Miocene (∼14 Ma), but no records are available to test how the monsoon changed prior to this. In order to improve our understanding of monsoonal evolution, geochemical and sedimentological data were generated for the Oligocene-early Miocene (30–20 Ma) from Indian National Gas Hydrate Expedition 01 Site NGHP-01-01A in the eastern Arabian Sea, at 2,674 m water depth. We find the initial glaciation phase (23.7–23.0 Ma) of the Oligocene-Miocene transition (OMT) to be associated with an increase in water column ventilation and water mass mixing, suggesting an increase in winter monsoon type atmospheric circulation, possibly driven by a relative southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone. During the latter part of the OMT, or “deglaciation” phase (23.0–22.7 Ma), a long-term decrease in Mn (suggestive of deoxygenation), increase in Ti/Ca and dissolution of the biogenic carbonate fraction suggest an intensification of a proto-summer SAM system, characterized by the formation of an oxygen minimum zone in the eastern Arabian Sea and a relative increase of terrigenous material delivered by runoff to the site. With no evidence at this site for an active SAM prior to the OMT we suggest that changes in orbital parameters, as well as possibly changing Tethyan/Himalayan tectonics, caused this step change in the proto-monsoon system at this intermediate-depth site.

Executive Statement: Geology is the science of how the Earth functions and has evolved and, as such, it can contribute to our understanding of the climate system and how it responds to the addition of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere and oceans. Observations from the geological record show that atmospheric CO2 concentrations are now at their highest levels in at least the past 3 million years. Furthermore, the current speed of human-induced CO2 change and warming is nearly without precedent in the entire geological record, with the only known exception being the instantaneous, meteorite-induced event that caused the extinction of non-bird-like dinosaurs 66 million years ago. In short, whilst atmospheric CO2 concentrations have varied dramatically during the geological past due to natural processes, and have often been higher than today, the current rate of CO2 (and therefore temperature) change is unprecedented in almost the entire geological past. The geological record shows that changes in temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations have direct impacts on sea-level, the hydrological cycle, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and the acidification and oxygen depletion of the oceans. Important climate phenomena, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoons, which today affect the socio-economic stability and food and water security of billions of people, have varied markedly with past changes in climate. Climate reconstructions from around the globe show that climate change is not globally uniform, but tends to exhibit a consistent pattern, with changes at the poles larger than elsewhere. This polar amplification is seen in ancient warmer-than-modern time intervals like the Eocene epoch, about 50 million years ago and, more recently, in the Pliocene, about 3 million years ago. The warmest intervals of the Pliocene saw the disappearance of summer sea ice from the Arctic. The loss of ice cover during the Pliocene was one of the many rapid cl

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Clemens, S. C., Yamamoto, M., Thirumalai, K., Giosan, L., Richey, J. N., Nilsson-Kerr, K., Rosenthal, Y., Anand, P., & McGrath, S. M. Remote and local drivers of Pleistocene South Asian summer monsoon precipitation: a test for future predictions. Science Advances, 7(23), (2021): eabg3848, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg3848., South Asian precipitation amount and extreme variability are predicted to increase due to thermodynamic effects of increased 21st-century greenhouse gases, accompanied by an increased supply of moisture from the southern hemisphere Indian Ocean. We reconstructed South Asian summer monsoon precipitation and runoff into the Bay of Bengal to assess the extent to which these factors also operated in the Pleistocene, a time of large-scale natural changes in carbon dioxide and ice volume. South Asian precipitation and runoff are strongly coherent with, and lag, atmospheric carbon dioxide changes at Earth’s orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession bands and are closely tied to cross-equatorial wind strength at the precession band. We find that the projected monsoon response to ongoing, rapid high-latitude ice melt and rising carbon dioxide levels is fully consistent with dynamics of the past 0.9 million years., S.C.C. and S.M.M. were supported by U.S. NSF OCE1634774. M.Y. was funded by JSPS grants JPMXS05R2900001 and 19H05595 and JAMSTEC Exp. 353 postcruise study. K.N.-K. and P.A. were supported by UK-IODP, Open University, and NERC (NE/L002493/1), K.T. was supported by the Technology and Research Initiative Fund, Arizona Board of Regents.

Diversity, at every step along the scientific path, drives innovative research. Scientific societies, like the Geochemical Society (GS) and the European Association of Geochemistry (EAG), have a significant influence over which discoveries and innovators are celebrated. Such choices impact the future of research, and therefore influence the evolution of our discipline and its relationship to the global community. Our professional societies are well positioned to define and promote the success of all scientists, including those from under-represented groups, through proactive advocacy, inclusive mentorship, awards, and leadership. At present, only binary gender data are available to examine the distribution of under-represented groups among memberships, awardees, and leadership positions. To assess gender diversity in the geochemistry and cosmochemistry community, we have reviewed available records of GS and EAG membership through Goldschmidt Conference attendees, and compared these to awardees and leadership data. Awards have in the past been disproportionately given to white men, though this is changing. The GS and EAG have taken positive steps to increase both diversity of awardees (e.g., broadened definition of Fellows criteria) and inclusion (e.g., mentoring efforts aimed at early career and underrepresented minority scientists). This work identifies strategies to continue to improve professional societies’ recognition of excellent science resulting in a more diverse representation of awardees. The strategies (e.g., revisions to award criteria and procedures to enlarge and diversify nomination pools) will require ongoing analysis and modifications. Future work is needed to address historically under-represented groups. We must work together to create a legacy of inclusion.

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 21(2), (2020): e2019GC008414, doi:10.1029/2019GC008414., X‐ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning of marine and lake sediments has been extensively used to study changes in past environmental and climatic processes over a range of timescales. The interpretation of XRF‐derived element ratios in paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic studies primarily considers differences in the relative abundances of particular elements. Here we present new XRF core scanning data from two long sediment cores in the Andaman Sea in the northern Indian Ocean and show that sea level related processes influence terrigenous inputs based proxies such as Ti/Ca, Fe/Ca, and elemental concentrations of the transition metals (e.g., Mn). Zr/Rb ratios are mainly a function of changes in median grain size of lithogenic particles and often covary with changes in Ca concentrations that reflect changes in biogenic calcium carbonate production. This suggests that a common process (i.e., sea level) influences both records. The interpretation of lighter element data (e.g., Si and Al) based on low XRF counts is complicated as variations in mean grain size and water content result in systematic artifacts and signal intensities not related to the Al or Si content of the sediments. This highlights the need for calibration of XRF core scanning data based on discrete sample analyses and careful examination of sediment properties such as porosity/water content for reliably disentangling environmental signals from other physical properties. In the case of the Andaman Sea, reliable extraction of a monsoon signal requires accounting for the sea level influence on the XRF data., The staff at the Bremen Core Repository is thanked for their help with core handling and Sam Müller at the University of Kiel provided technical assistance with the XRF scanner. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments that improved the manuscript significantly. This work was partially funded through DFG Grant HA 5751/3. P. A. and K. N.‐K. acknowledge support from UK‐IODP and Natural and Environment Research Council, UK. The authors express their thanks to all those who contributed to the success of the National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01 (NGHP01) and Expedition 353. The data set supporting the conclusions of this article is available in the PANGEA repository (doi: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.910533)., 2020-07-10