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Resumo No Brasil, estudantes, crianças de até quatro anos de idade e idosos com 65 anos ou mais têm direito a descontos parciais ou totais em viagens urbanas nos sistemas de transporte público. Esses descontos não são cobertos por fundos públicos, mas sim por subsídio cruzado cobrado dos demais usuários que pagam a tarifa cheia. Neste estudo, são estimados os efeitos do envelhecimento populacional sobre o preço das passagens do transporte público nas próximas quatro décadas na Região Metropolitana de São de Paulo (RMSP), a maior região metropolitana do país. As análises são baseadas nos dados da Pesquisa Origem-Destino, realizada em 2007 na RMSP, e nas projeções demográficas elaboradas pelo IBGE e pela Fundação Seade para 2020, 2030 e 2050. Considerando os diferentes períodos de projeção populacional, adaptou-se a técnica de padronização direta para simular as mudanças esperadas na composição das viagens do sistema de transporte, em termos de passageiros pagantes e não pagantes. Os resultados indicam que, no curto prazo (2020), o envelhecimento populacional estimado para ocorrer na RMSP teria efeito modesto sobre o número total e a composição etária das viagens realizadas no transporte público da região. No médio e longo prazos, contudo, o crescimento previsto na proporção de passageiros com gratuidades poderia ocasionar aumento no sobrepreço da tarifa, com elevação de seu valor em cerca de 10% e de 20%, caso seja mantido o mecanismo de subsídios cruzados.

Contrary to expectations that the first decades of the 21st century would experience an increase in lived time, the 2020s cast doubts on the future of old age. The Brazilian population is expected to increase until 2030, when it will reach its maximum, with a total of approximately 215 million inhabitants. A trend of population decline was already in progress and had already been documented, but the pandemic accelerated this process. This study describes a set of projections for the older Brazilian population. The projections were elaborated using the main components method, whose advantages are the possibility of separately projecting the behavior of the three demographic variables (fertility, mortality, and migrations) and obtaining results disaggregated by sex and age groups. Birth data for 2018, 2019, and 2020 suggest a 3.51 and 5.28% decrease in total births between 2018 and 2019 and 2019 and 2020, respectively. Preliminary data for 2021, which indicate the continuation of this trend between 2020–2021, show a 2.32% reduction in the number of births. The hypotheses raised for the mortality patterns, if proven to be accurate, suggest a life expectancy of 72.8 years for men and 76.2 years for women at the final period of the projection, resulting in gains of 4.6 and 2.0 years, respectively. Despite these gains, the levels obtained in 2019, pre-pandemic, would be reached by the male population only between 2035 and 2040.

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OBJECTIVES: To map the number and geospatial distribution of Brazilian long-term care facilities (LTCFs) for older adults. Additionally, we sought to highlight the relationship between these findings and the number of older people in the country's 27 Federation Units, demonstrating the growth of these facilities in the last decade. METHODS: This is a descriptive observational study, using secondary data, which was performed in 3 stages: 1) searching and consolidating national and subnational data from different sources and mapping LTCFs; 2) preparing a geospatial map using Brazilian postal codes; and 3) triangulating the number of facilities and of older people in each state and all 5 Brazilian regions. RESULTS: We found 7029 LTCFs in the country, mostly in the Southeast and South regions: São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul had the highest numbers of facilities while states in the North region represented only 1.12% of Brazilian LTCFs. Geospatial mapping highlighted that 64% of the 5 570 Brazilian municipalities did not have any LTCFs for older adults. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a large difference between Brazilian regions regarding the provision of long-term care.

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Abstract: The increasing numbers of people at very old ages pose specific policy challenges for health and social care and highlight the need to rethink established models of service provision. The main objective of this paper is to introduce the concept of “avoidable displacement from home” (ADH). The study argues that ADH builds on and adds value to existing concepts, offering a holistic, person-centered framework for integrated health and social care provision for older people. It also demonstrates that this framework can be applied across different levels, ranging from macro policymaking to organizational and individual decision-making. The paper pays attention to the Brazilian context but argues that ADH is a universally applicable concept.

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To investigate the prevalence of demand and provision of care for the Brazilian population with functional disabilities in activities of daily living. METHODS This is a quantitative and descriptive study using baseline data from ELSI-Brazil (Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Aging), a cohort study with a representative sample of the Brazilian population aged 50 years or older (n = 9,412). We considered the demand for care from the self-report of having some difficulty to perform at least one activity of daily life (eating, bathing, going to the toilet, dressing, moving in a room [ambulation], and transferring from chair [transfer]). Care supply was measured by having some help to perform the activity of daily living. RESULTS Approximately a quarter of the individuals evaluated (23.2%) reported difficulty in at least one activity of daily living, especially regarding transfer and dressing. Age, schooling, and number of chronic diseases were significantly associated with the difficulty in activities of daily living. Among those who reported difficulty, 35.1% received help of others and 11.8% did not receive (lack of care). The activities with greater lack of care were bathing (13.3%) and transfer (11.7%), which reveals an undignified survival condition. Care remains a family (94.1%) and female (72.1%) issue; despite the important changes that have taken place in society, there is still a lack of care policies. Of the total caregivers, 25.8% reported stopping working or studying to perform this role and only 9.2% were paid (hired ones or family members). CONCLUSIONS The ELSI-Brazil results reveal the expressive care demand of the Brazilian population aged 50 years or older with functional disabilities on activities of daily living and the lack of care policies aimed at this public.

Latin America´s elderly population is expected to grow fast within the next 40 years. This perspective is followed by some uncertainty about the capability of income generation byold people. The main objective of this paper isto analyze the processes of income generationby these people and speculate about their futuretrends. Six countries of the region were selected: Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Mexico and Peru. It is assumed that the main sources of income of elderly populationare Social Security Systems and labor markets. The importance of the social security benefitson elderly people and their families´ income isdescribed. Transformations in labor markethave resulted in a dramatic reduction of the proportion of the active population whichcontributes to social security. This suggeststhat the traditional ways to finance the systemwill not be enough to generate income for anincreasing demand of social benefits in thecontext of contributor´s reduction.

El trabajo discute la definición de joven, enfocando las juventudes en Brasil en relación con las formas de transición a la vida adulta, analizando las dimensiones de la escuela, el trabajo y la familia. El análisis se basó en los datos de las Encuestas Nacionales por Muestra de Domicilios (PNAD) del Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadísticas (IBGE), de 1982 y 2002. Se procuró explorar las variadas formas de transición a la vida adulta entre los jóvenes que se independizaron, saliendo de la casa de los padres en la condición de jefes de hogar y cónyuges, y entre los que permanecen en la condición de hijos y otros parientes. Los resultados enfatizan una multiplicidad de situaciones en que la transición puede ocurrir. Se sugiere que los procesos son marcados por trayectorias no lineales de las fases de vida, pudiendo, por ejemplo, los hijos abandonar el hogar paterno antes de casarse, o casarse antes de la inserción en el mercado de trabajo, y así por delante. En la misma dirección, se considera que esa transición puede ocurrir en nuevos arreglos familiares que no pasen necesariamente por la salida de la casa paterna. No fue posible concluir en el trabajo, en función de la insuficiencia de los datos, si los procesos son o no reversibles en el tiempo, pero se consideró que las etapas del proceso de transición llevan posibilidades de reversión.

O TRABALHO buscou mostrar a heterogeneidade da experiência do envelhecimento feminino. Há não muito tempo atrás, o envelhecimento trazia para as mulheres brasileiras, pobreza e isolamento. A grande mudança ocorrida nos últimos vinte anos é que o final da vida ativa e a viuvez não significam mais necessariamente isso. Para uma grande maioria de pessoas, pode significar uma nova fase no ciclo de vida. A universalização da Seguridade Social e a melhoria das condições de saúde trouxeram uma reconceitualização do curso da vida. A última fase da vida deixou de ser residual, vivenciada por uma minoria, para ser uma fase de duração até maior do que a infância e a adolescência. Ou seja, as idosas de hoje estão assumindo papéis não esperados, tornando-se também importante agentes de mudança social.THE PAPER looks to the heterogeneity of the experience of the female aging. Ageing used to bring about poverty and isolation for the Brazilian women until sometime ago. The great change that took place in the last 20 years is that the end the active life and the widowhood do not mean necessary those. For a great majority of people, it can mean a new phase in the life cycle. The universalization of the Social Security and the improvement in health conditions had brought about a new concept of the life course. The latter phase of life is not residual anymore, lived only by a small group of women. Nowadays, it can be longer then the childhood or even the adolescence. In other words, the female old women are taking over unexpected social roles, becoming an agent of social change.

Analisa-se, neste texto, a situação da saúde reprodutiva na Região Norte com base em dados oriundos de varias fontes, principalmente aqueles obtidos através da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde e Reprodução Humana (DHS) atinente aos anos de 1986 e 1996. A autora se detém em aspectos tais como a oferta e produção dos serviços públicos de atendimento à saúde da mulher, anticoncepção, gravidez na adolescência, e mortalidade materna. Em suas conclusões, destaca ser o Norte a região brasileira que apresenta as piores condições de saúde reprodutiva, o que, em grande parte, poderia ser sanado com ação de baixo custo e alta resolubilidade. Em particular, atribui à malária um importante papel como fator de acirramento da mortalidade materna na Região Norte.

Analisa-se, neste texto, a situação da saúde reprodutiva na Região Norte com base em dados oriundos de varias fontes, principalmente aqueles obtidos através da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde e Reprodução Humana (DHS) atinente aos anos de 1986 e 1996. A autora se detém em aspectos tais como a oferta e produção dos serviços públicos de atendimento à saúde da mulher, anticoncepção, gravidez na adolescência, e mortalidade materna. Em suas conclusões, destaca ser o Norte a região brasileira que apresenta as piores condições de saúde reprodutiva, o que, em grande parte, poderia ser sanado com ação de baixo custo e alta resolubilidade. Em particular, atribui à malária um importante papel como fator de acirramento da mortalidade materna na Região Norte. The text analyses the situation of the reproductive health in North Region. The analysis is based on data collected from several sources but mainly on those obtained through the Human Reproduction and Health National Survey (DHS) for the years 1986 and 1996. The author deals with aspects such as both the supply and the production of public services for women health, conception prevention, adolescent pregnancy and maternal mortality. In her conclusions, she emphasizes that, although North Region presents the worst reproductive health indicators when compared to other Brazilian Regions, such situation could be transformed with the adoption of low-cost ad highly-efficient actions. She also stresses that Malaria is an important cause of the high levels of maternal mortality in North Region.

O objetivo deste trabalho é o de estudar as implicações das variáveis demográficas básicas nas tendências futuras da população brasileira e o seu segmento economicamente ativo. Este trabalho foi feito a partir da construção de quatro trajetórias para a referida população e o referido segmento economicamente ativo. A partir destas trajetórias foi avaliado o impacto de variações nos níveis de fecundidade e nos das taxas específicas de atividade sobre as variáveis estudadas. Da análise realizada pode se concluir que a fecundidade tem um papel importante na determinação do volume e composição etária desta população, mas sobre a População Economicamente Ativa, até o ano 2000, o seu impacto é pouco significativo. A médio prazo, o ritmo de crescimento deste segmento está praticamente definido pela dinâmica demográfica passada. As taxas específicas de atividade, principalmente as femininas, terão um efeito maior sobre a oferta de forca de trabalho do que variações no nível da fecundidade nos próximos vinte anos. Pode-se esperar um aumento nessas taxas para a população feminina se os níveis de atividade continuarem a declinar com uma conseqüente ampliação da oferta da forca de trabalho brasileira. ************************************* The aim of this paper is to study the implications of the basic demographic variables in the future trends of the Brazilian population and its economically active segment. The study had as its starting-point the establishment of four hypotheses for the projected population and its active segment. An assessment was made of the impact of fertility and the age activity rates on these projections. From the analysis of the alternatives projected it was possible to conclude that fertility plays a major role in determining the size and age make-up of the population in question, but its impact on the economically active population up to year 2000 will be of minor significance. In the medium term the growth rate of this segment is practically defined by the demographic dynamics of the past. The age activity rates, particularly the female ones, will have a greater effect on the size of the workforce than variations in the level of fertility over the next twenty years. An increase in these rates can be expected in the case of the female population if fertility levels continue to fall, with a resultant growth in the size of the Brazilian workforce.