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This paper examines the Lithuanian consumer price inflation from 1996 January till 2006 December using a modern non-stationary time series and econometric theory. The multiple regressionmodels are proposed for inflation modeling. The stationarity of Lithuanian inflation and the main explored exogenous variables are analyzed using the augmented Dickey–Fuller test. All indicators are integrated of order one. Vector error correction (VECM) model of Lithuanian inflation processes is investigated and proposed for inflation modeling.

Inflation is a constant and consistent increase in the general price level in the country, due to which the purchasing power of a national currency unit decreases. In practice, the measures of inflation are various price indices, such as a consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), or gross domestic product deflator. However, inflation is usually defined as a change in the HCPI over a year. Time series models, linear regression models and a vector autoregression model (VAR) can be used to model and forecast inflation processes. This paper examines Lithuanian consumer price inflation using a modern stationary time series and econometric theory. The vector autoregression model is proposed for inflation modelling. Theoretical aspects of model estimation are reviewed: time series stationarity, model identification, parameter estimation, model usage and forecasts. The stationarity of the HCPI index and exogenous variables are analyzed using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test. A vector autoregression model of Lithuanian inflation processes is investigated and proposed for inflation modelling. The obtained model is used for forecasting purposes and shows a fairly high degree of accuracy of the inflation forecast in the coming 12-month period.

This paper is devoted to the Lithuanian inflation modelling. The main goal of this work is to apply Vector Error Correction Model for Lithaunian inflation. All inflation indicators are integrated of order one, consequently VECM model of Lithuanian inflation processes is investigated and proposed for modelling.