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Introduction There is increasing evidence of excess mortality in schizophrenia but less information on other non-affective psychoses. We therefore generated standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) for community-dwelling people with schizophrenia and other non-affective psychoses, relative to the general population, and examined changes to the SMR over time. Methods We conducted a systematic review in which Pubmed, CINAHL, EMBASE, Google Scholar and PsycINFO were searched for publications that reported SMRs for all-cause mortality among community-dwelling people with schizophrenia and psychotic disorders. Meta-analyses of SMRs were conducted, pooled across genders and then separately by gender. Sub-group analyses were conducted for diagnostic group, global region, decade and risk of study bias. Results We were able to include 34 studies covering 1,724,906 participants. The gender pooled SMR for schizophrenia and psychotic disorders was 3.08 (95%CI 2.88–3.31). Schizophrenia and broader psychotic disorders had similar SMRs. Stratification by decade of observation suggests that the difference in SMR is not declining and may possibly be widening. Analyses showed high levels of heterogeneity. Conclusions The appearance of a static or widening mortality gap over time between people with schizophrenia and psychotic disorders and the general population is of concern. However, whether it is an increase over time is unclear, as there are insufficient studies to confirm this.

Objectives: Multidisciplinary teams in mental health receive limited guidance, leading to inconsistent practices. We undertook a systematic review of the characteristics and practices of multidisciplinary team reviews for patients with severe mental illness or in relevant mental health service settings. Methods: Sources published since 2000 were located via academic database and web searches. Results were synthesised narratively. Results: A total of 14 sources were analysed. Important characteristics and practices identified included routine monitoring and evaluation, good communication, equality between team members, and clear documentation practices. Success factors included defined leadership and clear team goals. Four sources described considerations for patients with complex clinical needs, including allocating sufficient time for discussion, maintaining connections with community providers, and ensuring culturally sensitive practices. Conclusions: No single best practice model was found, due to variations in team caseload, casemix, and resourcing levels. However, key ingredients for success were proposed. Sources were mostly descriptive; there remains a lack of evidence-based guidance regarding multidisciplinary team review characteristics and practices.

Background Indigenous people in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States of America experience disproportionately poor mental health compared to their non-Indigenous counterparts. To optimally allocate resources, health planners require information about the services Indigenous people use for mental health, their unmet treatment needs and the barriers to care. We reviewed population surveys of Indigenous people to determine whether the information needed to guide service development is being collected. Methods We sought national- or state-level epidemiological surveys of Indigenous populations conducted in each of the four selected countries since 1990 that asked about service use for mental health. Surveys were identified from literature reviews and web searches. We developed a framework for categorising the content of each survey. Using this framework, we compared the service use content of the surveys of Indigenous people to each other and to general population mental health surveys. We focused on identifying gaps in information coverage and topics that may require Indigenous-specific questions or response options. Results Nine surveys met our inclusion criteria. More than half of these included questions about health professionals consulted, barriers to care, perceived need for care, medications taken, number, duration, location and payment of health professional visits or use of support services or self-management. Less than half included questions about interventions received, hospital admissions or treatment dropout. Indigenous-specific content was most common in questions regarding use of support services or self-management, types of health professionals consulted, barriers to care and interventions received. Conclusions Epidemiological surveys measuring service use for mental health among Indigenous populations have been less comprehensive and less standardised than surveys of the general population, despite having assessed similar content. To better understand the gaps in mental health service systems for Indigenous people, systematically-collected subjective and objective indicators of the quality of care being delivered are needed. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12961-017-0233-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Objective: Severe, persistent and complex mental illness (SPCMI) affects a small proportion of young people but is associated with severe disability and a large burden on families and health services. This article identifies and describes service models for adolescents and young adults with SPCMI. Methods: A systematic search was conducted for services for young people aged 12–25 years with SPCMI. The review sought service models providing extended care and/or multidisciplinary services to meet the complex and long-term needs of this population. Results: A total of 43 sources were identified. Evidence of effectiveness was found for both community- and bed-based services. Specific components suggested as important in service delivery included care provided by multidisciplinary teams, consumer and family involvement in care planning, intensive case management and service integration through the continuum of care. Conclusion: Clinical frameworks for this population must incorporate effective community care integrated with inpatient treatment of short duration. Frameworks require consumer and family-centred care with flexibility to support progression through developmental stages and tasks while addressing issues related to risk management, fluctuation in illness severity and stages of recovery. A continuum of care is necessary to meet the needs that arise from SPCMI in adolescents and young adults.

First paragraph: Systematic reviews are common in disciplines such as medicine, nursing, and health sciences and students are increasingly being encouraged to conduct them as a component of their thesis (Pickering & Byrne, 2014). Fortunately, the tedious old days of writing a thesis by gathering mountains of hard-copy papers are long behind us. Privileged modern-day students can access the latest research papers through a simple tap of the keyboard – connecting to databases through the Internet. The ease of accessing scientific papers makes the process of conducting systematic reviews more streamlined and efficient. However, undertaking a systematic review can present many challenges, particularly for novice researchers, and the trade-offs between systematic and non-systematic literature reviews are still debated in research communities (Gough, 2013). In this piece, we discuss the challenges in conducting systematic reviews in the context of our research experience as students in a health science discipline. In doing so, we describe how the process of learning to conduct systematic reviews has helped to induct us into scholarly conversations.

Summary Background Population-representative prevalence data for mental, neurological, and substance use disorders are essential for evidence-based decision making. As a background to the China–India Mental Health Alliance Series, we aim to examine the availability of data and report prevalence for the most common mental, neurological, and substance use disorders in China and India from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013 (GBD 2013). Methods In this systematic analysis, data sources were identified from GBD 2013 for the prevalence of mental, neurological, and substance use disorders in China and India published up to Dec 31, 2013. We calculated the proportion of the population represented by the data with the adjusted population coverage (APC) method adjusting for age, sex, and population size. We developed prevalence models with DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian meta-regression instrument used to pool population-representative epidemiological data as part of GBD 2013. We report estimates and 95% uncertainly intervals (95% UI) for 15 mental, neurological, and substance use disorders for China and India in 1990 and 2013, and benchmark these against those for other BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, and South Africa) in 2013. Findings Few population-representative data were found for the disorders, with an average coverage of 15% of the population of the Chinese mainland and 1% of the population of India. For men in both China and India, major depressive disorder, anxiety disorders, and alcohol dependence were the most common mental, neurological, and substance use disorders. Prevalence of major depressive disorder was 2·2% (95% UI 1·5–2·8) in Chinese men and 3·5% (2·4–4·6) in Indian men; prevalence of anxiety disorders was 2·0% (1·1–3·2) and 1·9% (1·2–2·3), respectively. For women, anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, and dysthymia were the most common. Prevalence of major depressive disorder was 3·3% (2·3–4·1) in Chinese women and 4·7% (95% UI 3·3–6·2) in Indian women; prevalence of anxiety disorders was 3·3% (1·6–5·3) and 4·1% (3·3–5·0), respectively. Schizophrenia was more prevalent in China (0·5%, 95% UI 0·4–0·5) than in India (0·2%; 0·2–0·2). Interpretation More data for mental, neurological, and substance use disorders are needed for India and China but the large population and geographic scale of these countries present challenges to population-representative data collection. Funding China–India Mental Health Alliance, China Medical Board.

Summary Background China and India jointly account for 38% of the world population, so understanding the burden attributed to mental, neurological, and substance use disorders within these two countries is essential. As part of the Lancet/Lancet Psychiatry China–India Mental Health Alliance Series, we aim to provide estimates of the burden of mental, neurological, and substance use disorders for China and India from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013). Methods In this systematic analysis for community representative epidemiological studies, we conducted systematic reviews in line with PRISMA guidelines for community representative epidemiological studies. We extracted estimates of prevalence, incidence, remission and duration, and mortality along with associated uncertainty intervals from GBD 2013. Using these data as primary inputs, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian meta-regression instrument, used a log rate and incidence-prevalence-mortality mathematical model to develop internally consistent epidemiological models. Disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) changes between 1990 and 2013 were decomposed to quantify change attributable to population growth and ageing. We projected DALYs from 2013 to 2025 for mental, neurological, and substance use disorders using United Nations population data. Findings Around a third of global DALYs attributable to mental, neurological, and substance use disorders were found in China and India (66 million DALYs), a number greater than all developed countries combined (50 million DALYs). Disease burden profiles differed; India showed similarities with other developing countries (around 50% of DALYs attributable to non-communicable disease), whereas China more closely resembled developed countries (around 80% of DALYs attributable to non-communicable disease). The overall population growth in India explains a greater proportion of the increase in mental, neurological, and substance use disorder burden from 1990 to 2013 (44%) than in China (20%). The burden of mental, neurological, and substance use disorders is estimated to increase by 10% in China and 23% in India between 2013 and 2025. Interpretation The current and projected burden of mental, neurological, and substance use disorders in China and India warrants the urgent prioritisation of programmes focused on targeted prevention, early identification, and effective treatment. Funding China Medical Board, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BackgroundPeople with severe mental illness (SMI) have high rates of chronic disease and premature death.AimsTo explore the strength of evidence for interventions to reduce risk of mortality in people with SMI.MethodIn a meta-review of 16 systematic reviews of controlled studies, mortality was the primary outcome (8 reviews). Physiological health measures (body mass index, weight, glucose levels, lipid profiles and blood pressure) were secondary outcomes (14 reviews).ResultsAntipsychotic and antidepressant medications had some protective effect on mortality, subject to treatment adherence. Integrative community care programmes may reduce physical morbidity and excess deaths, but the effective ingredients are unknown. Interventions to improve unhealthy lifestyles and risky behaviours can improve risk factor profiles, but longer follow-up is needed. Preventive interventions and improved medical care for comorbid chronic disease may reduce excess mortality, but data are lacking.ConclusionsImproved adherence to pharmacological and physical health management guidelines is indicated.

Aims.To examine: (1) gender-specific determinants of help-seeking for mental health, including health professional consultation and the use of non-clinical support services and self-management strategies (SS/SM) and; (2) gender differences among individuals with unmet perceived need for care.Method.Analyses focused on 689 males and 1075 females aged 16–85 years who met ICD-10 criteria for a past-year affective, anxiety or substance use disorder in an Australian community-representative survey. Two classifications of help-seeking for mental health in the previous year were created: (1) no health professional consultation or SS/SM, or health professional consultation, or SS/SM only, and; (2) no general practitioner (GP) or mental health professional consultation, or GP only consultation, or mental health professional consultation. Between- and within-gender help-seeking patterns were explored using multinomial logistic regression models. Characteristics of males and females with unmet perceived need for care were compared using chi-square tests.Results.Males with mental or substance use disorders had relatively lower odds than females of any health professional consultation (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.46), use of SS/SM only (AOR = 0.59), and GP only consultation (AOR = 0.29). Notably, males with severe disorders had substantially lower odds than females of any health professional consultation (AOR = 0.29) and GP only consultation (AOR = 0.14). Most correlates of help-seeking were need-related. Many applied to both genders (e.g., severity, disability, psychiatric comorbidity), although some were male-specific (e.g., past-year reaction to a traumatic event) or female-specific (e.g., past-year affective disorder). Certain enabling and predisposing factors increased the probability of health professional consultation for both genders (age 30+ years) or for males (unmarried, single parenthood, reliance on government pension). Males with unmet perceived need for care were more likely to have experienced a substance use disorder and to want medicine or tablets or social intervention, whereas their females peers were more likely to have experienced an anxiety disorder and to want counselling or talking therapy. For both genders, attitudinal/knowledge barriers to receiving the types of help wanted (e.g., not knowing where to get help) were more commonly reported than structural barriers (e.g., cost).Conclusions.Findings suggest a need to address barriers to help-seeking in males with severe disorders, and promote GP consultation. Exploring gender-specific attitudinal/knowledge barriers to receiving help, and the types of help wanted, may assist in designing interventions to increase consultation. Mental health promotion/education efforts could incorporate information about the content and benefits of evidence-based treatments and encourage males to participate in other potentially beneficial actions (e.g., physical activity).

Aims.Mortality-associated burden of disease estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 (GBD 2010) may erroneously lead to the interpretation that premature death in people with mental, neurological and substance use disorders (MNSDs) is inconsequential when evidence shows that people with MNSDs experience a significant reduction in life expectancy. We explore differences between cause-specific and excess mortality of MNSDs estimated by GBD 2010.Methods.GBD 2010 cause-specific death estimates were produced using the International Classification of Diseases death-coding system. Excess mortality (all-cause) was estimated using natural history models. Additional mortality attributed to MNSDs as underlying causes but not captured through GBD 2010 methodology is quantified in the comparative risk assessments.Results.In GBD 2010, MNSDs were estimated to be directly responsible for 840 000 deaths compared with more than 13 million excess deaths using natural history models.Conclusions.Numbers of excess deaths and attributable deaths clearly demonstrate the high degree of mortality associated with these disorders. There is substantial evidence pointing to potential causal pathways for this premature mortality with evidence-based interventions available to address this mortality. The life expectancy gap between persons with MNSDs and the general population is high and should be a focus for health systems reform.

Anxiety disorders are increasingly acknowledged as a global health issue however an accurate picture of prevalence across populations is lacking. Empirical data are incomplete and inconsistent so alternate means of estimating prevalence are required to inform estimates for the new Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. We used a Bayesian meta-regression approach which included empirical epidemiological data, expert prior information, study covariates and population characteristics. Reported are global and regional point prevalence for anxiety disorders in 2010. Point prevalence of anxiety disorders differed by up to three-fold across world regions, ranging between 2.1% (1.8-2.5%) in East Asia and 6.1% (5.1-7.4%) in North Africa/Middle East. Anxiety was more common in Latin America; high income regions; and regions with a history of recent conflict. There was considerable uncertainty around estimates, particularly for regions where no data were available. Future research is required to examine whether variations in regional distributions of anxiety disorders are substantive differences or an artefact of cultural or methodological differences. This is a particular imperative where anxiety is consistently reported to be less common, and where it appears to be elevated, but uncertainty prevents the reporting of conclusive estimates.

Background.The main aim of this paper is to compare and contrast the methodological approaches of the new Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study (GBD 2010) with the original study conducted for 1990 (GBD 1990), in terms of calculating burden for mental and substance use disorders.Methods.We reviewed the conceptual and methodological changes to GBD burden calculations in the GBD 2010 study, compared with previous studies. We then discuss the possible implications of these changes with respect to burden estimates for mental and substance use disorders.Results.It is not possible to compare burden estimates arising from the GBD 1990 study with the most recent burden estimates. There have been important advances in the categorisation and definition of mental disorders, and the input and computation of epidemiological models for disease distribution. There have also been major changes to conceptual and social value choices aimed at addressing concerns that arose following publication of earlier GBD studies.Conclusion.Advancements to the GBD conceptual framework and method of calculating burden estimates has led to more accurate and equitable consideration of the burden for mental and substance use disorders. Proposed annual updates of GBD estimates by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation provide an opportunity to continue to advance the evidence base that underpins the quantification of disease burden.

AIMS: To estimate the global prevalence of cocaine and amphetamine dependence and the burden of disease attributable to these disorders. METHODS: An epidemiological model was developed using DisMod-MR, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, using epidemiological data (prevalence, incidence, remission and mortality) sourced from a multi-stage systematic review of data. Age, sex and region-specific prevalence was estimated for and multiplied by comorbidity-adjusted disability weightings to estimate years of life lost to disability (YLDs) from these disorders. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated from cross-national vital registry data. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were estimated by summing YLDs and YLLs in 21 regions, by sex and age, in 1990 and 2010. RESULTS: In 2010, there were an estimated 24.1 million psychostimulant dependent people: 6.9 million cocaine and 17.2 million amphetamines, equating to a point prevalence of 0.10% (0.09-0.11%) for cocaine, and 0.25% (0.22-0.28%) for amphetamines. There were 37.6 amphetamine dependence DALYs (21.3-59.3) per 100,000 population in 2010 and 15.9 per 100,000 (9.3-25.0) cocaine dependence DALYs. There were clear differences between amphetamines and cocaine in the geographic distribution of crude DALYs. Over half of amphetamine dependence DALYs were in Asian regions (52%), whereas almost half of cocaine dependence DALYs were in the Americas (44%, with 23% in North America High Income). CONCLUSION: Dependence upon psychostimulants is a substantial contributor to global disease burden; the contribution of cocaine and amphetamines to this burden varies dramatically by geographic region. There is a need to scale up evidence-based interventions to reduce this burden. Language: en

Background: Anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder (MDD) are common and disabling mental disorders. This paper aims to test the hypothesis that common mental disorders have become more prevalent over the past two decades. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of prevalence, remission, duration, and excess mortality studies for anxiety disorders and MDD and then used a Bayesian meta-regression approach to estimate point prevalence for 1990, 2005, and 2010. We also conducted a post-hoc search for studies that used the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) as a measure of psychological distress and tested for trends to present a qualitative comparison of study findings Results: This study found no evidence for an increased prevalence of anxiety disorders or MDD. While the crude number of cases increased by 36%, this was explained by population growth and changing age structures. Point prevalence of anxiety disorders was estimated at 3.8% (3.6-4.1%) in 1990 and 4.0% (3.7-4.2%) in 2010. The prevalence of MDD was unchanged at 4.4% in 1990 (4.2-4.7%) and 2010 (4.1-4.7%). However, 8 of the 11 GHQ studies found a significant increase in psychological distress over time. Conclusions: The perceived "epidemic" of common mental disorders is most likely explained by the increasing numbers of affected patients driven by increasing population sizes. Additional factors that may explain this perception include the higher rates of psychological distress as measured using symptom checklists, greater public awareness, and the use of terms such as anxiety and depression in a context where they do not represent clinical disorders. Depression and Anxiety 31: 506-516, 2014. (C) 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Summary Background No systematic attempts have been made to estimate the global and regional prevalence of amphetamine, cannabis, cocaine, and opioid dependence, and quantify their burden. We aimed to assess the prevalence and burden of drug dependence, as measured in years of life lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Methods We conducted systematic reviews of the epidemiology of drug dependence, and analysed results with Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) Bayesian meta-regression technique (DisMod-MR) to estimate population-level prevalence of dependence and use. GBD 2010 calculated new disability weights by use of representative community surveys and an internet-based survey. We combined estimates of dependence with disability weights to calculate prevalent YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs, and estimated YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs attributable to drug use as a risk factor for other health outcomes. Findings Illicit drug dependence directly accounted for 20·0 million DALYs (95% UI 15·3–25·4 million) in 2010, accounting for 0·8% (0·6–1·0) of global all-cause DALYs. Worldwide, more people were dependent on opioids and amphetamines than other drugs. Opioid dependence was the largest contributor to the direct burden of DALYs (9·2 million, 95% UI 7·1–11·4). The proportion of all-cause DALYs attributed to drug dependence was 20 times higher in some regions than others, with an increased proportion of burden in countries with the highest incomes. Injecting drug use as a risk factor for HIV accounted for 2·1 million DALYs (95% UI 1·1–3·6 million) and as a risk factor for hepatitis C accounted for 502 000 DALYs (286 000–891 000). Suicide as a risk of amphetamine dependence accounted for 854 000 DALYs (291 000–1 791 000), as a risk of opioid dependence for 671 000 DALYs (329 000–1 730 000), and as a risk of cocaine dependence for 324 000 DALYs (109 000–682 000). Countries with the highest rate of burden (>650 DALYs per 100 000 population) included the USA, UK, Russia, and Australia. Interpretation Illicit drug use is an important contributor to the global burden of disease. Efficient strategies to reduce disease burden of opioid dependence and injecting drug use, such as delivery of opioid substitution treatment and needle and syringe programmes, are needed to reduce this burden at a population scale. Funding Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BackgroundFew studies have examined spontaneous remission from major depression. This study investigated the proportion of prevalent cases of untreated major depression that will remit without treatment in a year, and whether remission rates vary by disorder severity.MethodWait-list controlled trials and observational cohort studies published up to 2010 with data describing remission from untreated depression at ⩽2-year follow-up were identified. Remission was defined as rescinded diagnoses or below threshold scores on standardized symptom measures. Nineteen studies were included in a regression model predicting the probability of 12-month remission from untreated depression, using logit transformed remission proportion as the dependent variable. Covariates included age, gender, study type and diagnostic measure.ResultsWait-listed compared to primary-care samples, studies with longer follow-up duration and older adult compared to adult samples were associated with lower probability of remission. Child and adolescent samples were associated with higher probability of remission. Based on adult samples recruited from primary-care settings, the model estimated that 23% of prevalent cases of untreated depression will remit within 3 months, 32% within 6 months and 53% within 12 months.ConclusionsIt is undesirable to expect 100% treatment coverage for depression, given many will remit before access to services is feasible. Data were drawn from consenting wait-list and primary-care samples, which potentially over-represented mild-to-moderate cases of depression. Considering reported rates of spontaneous remission, a short untreated period seems defensible for this subpopulation, where judged appropriate by the clinician. Conclusions may not apply to individuals with more severe depression.

Background The multiple factors likely to influence estimates of the prevalence of bipolar spectrum disorders (BSD) make it difficult to determine its actual prevalence. A systematic review was undertaken to explore the availability and quality of epidemiological data for BSD. This will inform the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study. Methods Electronic databases searched were Medline, PsycInfo and EMBASE using search terms generated in consultation with a research librarian. Reference lists were searched and experts contacted to obtain articles not identified through the database search. Prevalence data pertaining to point, 6 month or 12 month prevalence of BSD were sought. Results The mean pooled prevalence was 0.741% (point) and 0.843% (6/12 months). The study region, response rate and diagnostic tool had a significant impact on prevalence estimates but there were no significant differences in prevalence across prevalence types, gender, sample coverage, economic status and bipolar subtype. Little or no prevalence data was apparent for many regions of the world. Also, the entire bipolar spectrum was rarely assessed. Limitations Although stringent quality assurance methodology was used, controlling for all sources of variability around the pooled prevalence was not possible. Conclusions This systematic review has made significant contributions to the epidemiological profile of BSD. Prevalence estimates will be used to generate estimates of burden for BSD in the global burden of disease 2010 study.

Background. Depressive disorders are associated with substantial risk of premature mortality. A number of factors may contribute to reported risk estimates, making it difficult to determine actual risk of excess mortality in community cases of depression. The aim of this study is to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of excess mortality in population-based studies of clinically defined depression. Methods. Population-based studies reporting all-cause mortality associated with a clinically defined depressive disorder were included in the systematic review. Estimates of relative risk for excess mortality in population-representative cases of clinical depressive disorders were extracted. A meta-analysis was conducted using Stata to pool estimates of excess mortality and identify sources of heterogeneity within the data. Results. Twenty-one studies reporting risk of excess mortality in clinical depression were identified. A significantly higher risk of mortality was found for major depression (RR 1.92 95% CI 1.65–2.23), but no significant difference was found for dysthymia (RR 1.37 95% CI 0.93–2.00). Relative risk of excess mortality was not significantly different following the adjustment of reported risk estimates. Conclusion. A mortality gradient was identified with increasing severity of clinical depression. Recognition of depressive symptoms in general practice and appropriate referral for evidence-based treatment may help improve outcomes, particularly in patients with comorbid physical disorders.

Background: Concerns about low levels of service utilisation for mental and substance use disorders in Australia – especially among males – have prompted targeted help-seeking and stigma-reduction initiatives. Resulting changes in service utilisation according to gender are unknown. We modelled the percentage of Australian males with a mental or substance use disorder who used services each year between 2006–2007 and 2011–2012, and the types of services they used, relative to females. Methods: Twelve-month prevalence of mental and substance use disorders, stratified by gender, was synthesised from existing estimates. The percentage of males and females with these disorders who used mental health services in each year from 2006–2007 to 2011–2012 was modelled from published programme activity data, supplemented by analyses of epidemiological survey data. Uncertainty analysis quantified the effects of sampling error and assumptions on the estimates. Results: Modelling showed a significant increase in the percentage of people with mental or substance use disorders who used services for their mental health – from 32.0% in 2006–2007 to 40.0% in 2011–2012 in males and from 45.1% in 2006–2007 to 54.6% in 2011–2012 in females. Growth was driven largely by uptake of private specialised services – males’ use of these services grew by 92.7% and females’ by 115.4%. There appeared to be a non-significant decrease in use of general practitioner-only mental health care for males (−17.9%), and a significant decrease in the same for females (−35.1%); however, some assumptions made in the modelling of general practitioner-only care require validation. In 2006–2007, the percentage of females treated was 40.9% higher than for males; in 2011–2012, it was 36.6% greater. Conclusions: Recently implemented initiatives have improved males’ likelihood of service utilisation, particularly their use of specialised mental health services. Although the gender gap may have narrowed, improving males’ access to services should remain a policy priority.

Background Effective decision making in health care relies upon evidence-based measures of relative disease frequency, mortality and morbidity. Findings from the first Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study showed for the first time the high level of health loss, or ‘burden’, associated with mental disorders relative to other high priority public health issues. A major contribution to the mental health burden comes from anxiety disorders yet there has been no comprehensive assessment of the global frequency or extent of health loss from this group of common mental disorders. Accurate estimates for the prevalence and burden of anxiety disorders, relative to other health issues, across populations and over time, are needed to inform policy decisions around resource re-allocation, service provision and research priorities. The new Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2010) aimed to produce estimates of fatal and non-fatal disease burden using improved data and modelling techniques for a more complete range of disease and injury categories. This new initiative provided an opportunity to produce, for the first time, estimates for the global prevalence and burden of anxiety disorders. This thesis addresses the data input and methods required to synthesise populationrepresentative measures of health loss to inform health policy, and the application of these in calculating the prevalence and burden of anxiety disorders. Methods A series of systematic reviews were conducted for epidemiological studies reporting prevalence, incidence, remission and excess mortality for all mental disorders captured in GBD 2010. I collated and assessed information on data availability and study quality, identifying strengths and weaknesses in the current research and calculated regional coverage for prevalence data. Then, focusing on anxiety disorders, I used random effects meta-regression to explore sources of variability (methodological and substantive) in the prevalence data. Next, a global prevalence model of anxiety disorders was derived using a Bayesian meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR). The model input included data sourced iii through the systematic review and expert input. The data were adjusted for methodological differences identified in the preliminary meta-regression and then estimates derived for populations where data were lacking based on epidemiologically similar populations and country-level covariates such as exposure to conflict. Years of life lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated based on prevalent cases multiplied by an average disability weight taken from the weights allocated to severity proportions (mild, moderate and severe). YLDs and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated by sex and age across 21 world regions for 1990, 2005 and 2010. The proportion of burden attributable to anxiety disorders was compared with other mental and physical disorders to provide an objective evidence base to inform decision making in global health policy and service provision. Findings Anxiety disorders were common, with an average point prevalence of 4.0% (95%UI 3.8– 4.3%) and were associated with a high degree of health loss due to the disability resulting from these disorders. In 2010, they accounted for 390 YLDs/DALYs per 100,000 persons (95%UI 191–371/100,000), making anxiety disorders the sixth leading cause of global disability, in terms of YLDs. While there was no direct mortality associated with anxiety disorders in GBD 2010 7% of suicide deaths were attributed to anxiety disorders. Between 1990 and 2010, crude YLDs from anxiety disorders increased by 36%. There was no detectable change in the prevalence of anxiety disorders over the past two decades. The increase in absolute YLDs was explained by global population growth and population ageing. Females accounted for 65% of the DALYs caused by anxiety disorders. The age pattern was similar for both sexes, with YLD rates peaking in the 15–34-year age group: 387 YLDs per 100,000 males and 721 YLDs per 100,000 females. Higher YLD rates were found in high-income GBD regions (North America High Income, Australasia, and Southern Latin America) and in regions with populations exposed to conflict (North Africa/Middle East and Central Europe), while lower rates were found in East Asia. There was considerable uncertainty around estimates, particularly for regions where no empirical data were available. Implications Anxiety disorders are chronic, disabling conditions, and the findings reported here show for the first time their public health significance. To respond to the high burden and low treatment rates of anxiety disorders, policy makers and clinicians in all countries need to ensure cost-effective interventions are widely available. Estimates of prevalence and disease burden could be improved by strengthening the quality of epidemiological data, and identifying whether variations in regional distributions of anxiety disorders are substantive or an artefact of cultural or methodological differences.

Summary As BJPsych Open completes its first circle around the sun and marks its first anniversary, we share with you its strengths and advantages that underpin its success as a new journal. First and foremost, the editorial team has maintained rigorous scientific standards while pursuing an open access publishing model that, by design, accommodates a broad range of clinical and scientific topics. Fundamental to BJPsych Open’s mission has been our policy of accepting papers that are both methodologically sound and intellectually stimulating. The calibre of the journal has already been recognised, with recent notification of indexing all its content in PubMed Central. This reflects the quality of submissions and is the result of concerted efforts by the authors, the editorial board, the many selfless reviewers and our dedicated staff in the journal office. We urge you to join us on this exciting journey and look to your input as authors, readers and reviewers to help shape this fledgling enterprise, destined to become a force to be reckoned with. Declaration of interests None. Copyright and usage © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2016. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Non-Commercial, No Derivatives (CC BY-NC-ND) license.

BackgroundAutism spectrum disorders (ASDs) are persistent disabling neurodevelopmental disorders clinically evident from early childhood. For the first time, the burden of ASDs has been estimated for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). The aims of this study were to develop global and regional prevalence models and estimate the global burden of disease of ASDs.MethodA systematic review was conducted for epidemiological data (prevalence, incidence, remission and mortality risk) of autistic disorder and other ASDs. Data were pooled using a Bayesian meta-regression approach while adjusting for between-study variance to derive prevalence models. Burden was calculated in terms of years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), which are reported here by world region for 1990 and 2010.ResultsIn 2010 there were an estimated 52 million cases of ASDs, equating to a prevalence of 7.6 per 1000 or one in 132 persons. After accounting for methodological variations, there was no clear evidence of a change in prevalence for autistic disorder or other ASDs between 1990 and 2010. Worldwide, there was little regional variation in the prevalence of ASDs. Globally, autistic disorders accounted for more than 58 DALYs per 100 000 population and other ASDs accounted for 53 DALYs per 100 000.ConclusionsASDs account for substantial health loss across the lifespan. Understanding the burden of ASDs is essential for effective policy making. An accurate epidemiological description of ASDs is needed to inform public health policy and to plan for education, housing and financial support services.

Anxiety disorders are one of the most common mental disorders and contribute substantially to the global burden of disease. Although treatment rates for anxiety disorders are low, they are associated with a high utilization of healthcare services related to investigation and treatment for somatic manifestations. This can incur substantial healthcare expenditure. There have been 33 studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of various treatment interventions for anxiety disorders (up until November 2012). While the focus of this chapter is the cost-effectiveness of anxiety treatments, it is important to note that there have been studies that have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of interventions designed to prevent anxiety disorders. The studies that have used techniques that aim to enhance comparability have consistently demonstrated that there are very cost-effective pharmacological and nonpharmacological treatments available for anxiety disorders. While treatments for some disorders are well evaluated, such as GAD and panic disorder, others are not.

BackgroundThe Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) identified mental and substance use disorders as the 5th leading contributor of burden in 2010, measured by disability adjusted life years (DALYs). This estimate was incomplete as it excluded burden resulting from the increased risk of suicide captured elsewhere in GBD 2010's mutually exclusive list of diseases and injuries. Here, we estimate suicide DALYs attributable to mental and substance use disorders.MethodsRelative-risk estimates of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders and the global prevalence of each disorder were used to estimate population attributable fractions. These were adjusted for global differences in the proportion of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders compared to other causes then multiplied by suicide DALYs reported in GBD 2010 to estimate attributable DALYs (with 95% uncertainty).ResultsMental and substance use disorders were responsible for 22.5 million (14.8-29.8 million) of the 36.2 million (26.5-44.3 million) DALYs allocated to suicide in 2010. Depression was responsible for the largest proportion of suicide DALYs (46.1% (28.0%-60.8%)) and anorexia nervosa the lowest (0.2% (0.02%-0.5%)). DALYs occurred throughout the lifespan, with the largest proportion found in Eastern Europe and Asia, and males aged 20-30 years. The inclusion of attributable suicide DALYs would have increased the overall burden of mental and substance use disorders (assigned to them in GBD 2010 as a direct cause) from 7.4% (6.2%-8.6%) to 8.3% (7.1%-9.6%) of global DALYs, and would have changed the global ranking from 5th to 3rd leading cause of burden.ConclusionsCapturing the suicide burden attributable to mental and substance use disorders allows for more accurate estimates of burden. More consideration needs to be given to interventions targeted to populations with, or at risk for, mental and substance use disorders as an effective strategy for suicide prevention.

BackgroundDespite their high prevalence, the global burden of anxiety disorders has never been calculated comprehensively. The new Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has estimated burden due to morbidity and mortality caused by any anxiety disorder.MethodPrevalence was estimated using Bayesian meta-regression informed by data identified in a systematic review. Years of life lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalent cases by an average disability weight based on severity proportions (mild, moderate and severe). Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were then calculated and age standardized using global standard population figures. Estimates were also made for additional suicide mortality attributable to anxiety disorders. Findings are presented for YLDs, DALYs and attributable burden due to suicide for 21 world regions in 1990 and 2010.ResultsAnxiety disorders were the sixth leading cause of disability, in terms of YLDs, in both high-income (HI) and low- and middle-income (LMI) countries. Globally, anxiety disorders accounted for 390 DALYs per 100 000 persons [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 191–371 DALYs per 100 000] in 2010, with no discernible change observed over time. Females accounted for about 65% of the DALYs caused by anxiety disorders, with the highest burden in both males and females experienced by those aged between 15 and 34 years. Although there was regional variation in prevalence, the overlap between uncertainty estimates means that substantive differences in burden between populations could not be identified.ConclusionsAnxiety disorders are chronic, disabling conditions that are distributed across the globe. Future estimates of burden could be further improved by obtaining more representative data on severity state proportions.

Anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder (MDD) are common and disabling mental disorders. This paper aims to test the hypothesis that common mental disorders have become more prevalent over the past two decades.We conducted a systematic review of prevalence, remission, duration, and excess mortality studies for anxiety disorders and MDD and then used a Bayesian meta-regression approach to estimate point prevalence for 1990, 2005, and 2010. We also conducted a post-hoc search for studies that used the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) as a measure of psychological distress and tested for trends to present a qualitative comparison of study findingsThis study found no evidence for an increased prevalence of anxiety disorders or MDD. While the crude number of cases increased by 36%, this was explained by population growth and changing age structures. Point prevalence of anxiety disorders was estimated at 3.8% (3.6-4.1%) in 1990 and 4.0% (3.7-4.2%) in 2010. The prevalence of MDD was unchanged at 4.4% in 1990 (4.2-4.7%) and 2010 (4.1-4.7%). However, 8 of the 11 GHQ studies found a significant increase in psychological distress over time.The perceived "epidemic" of common mental disorders is most likely explained by the increasing numbers of affected patients driven by increasing population sizes. Additional factors that may explain this perception include the higher rates of psychological distress as measured using symptom checklists, greater public awareness, and the use of terms such as anxiety and depression in a context where they do not represent clinical disorders.

Summary Background We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods For each of the 20 mental and substance use disorders included in GBD 2010, we systematically reviewed epidemiological data and used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR, to model prevalence by age, sex, country, region, and year. We obtained disability weights from representative community surveys and an internet-based survey to calculate YLDs. We calculated premature mortality as YLLs from cause of death estimates for 1980–2010 for 20 age groups, both sexes, and 187 countries. We derived DALYs from the sum of YLDs and YLLs. We adjusted burden estimates for comorbidity and present them with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings In 2010, mental and substance use disorders accounted for 183·9 million DALYs (95% UI 153·5 million–216·7 million), or 7·4% (6·2–8·6) of all DALYs worldwide. Such disorders accounted for 8·6 million YLLs (6·5 million–12·1 million; 0·5% [0·4–0·7] of all YLLs) and 175·3 million YLDs (144·5 million–207·8 million; 22·9% [18·6–27·2] of all YLDs). Mental and substance use disorders were the leading cause of YLDs worldwide. Depressive disorders accounted for 40·5% (31·7–49·2) of DALYs caused by mental and substance use disorders, with anxiety disorders accounting for 14·6% (11·2–18·4), illicit drug use disorders for 10·9% (8·9–13·2), alcohol use disorders for 9·6% (7·7–11·8), schizophrenia for 7·4% (5·0–9·8), bipolar disorder for 7·0% (4·4–10·3), pervasive developmental disorders for 4·2% (3·2–5·3), childhood behavioural disorders for 3·4% (2·2–4·7), and eating disorders for 1·2% (0·9–1·5). DALYs varied by age and sex, with the highest proportion of total DALYs occurring in people aged 10–29 years. The burden of mental and substance use disorders increased by 37·6% between 1990 and 2010, which for most disorders was driven by population growth and ageing. Interpretation Despite the apparently small contribution of YLLs—with deaths in people with mental disorders coded to the physical cause of death and suicide coded to the category of injuries under self-harm—our findings show the striking and growing challenge that these disorders pose for health systems in developed and developing regions. In view of the magnitude of their contribution, improvement in population health is only possible if countries make the prevention and treatment of mental and substance use disorders a public health priority. Funding Queensland Department of Health, National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre-University of New South Wales, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, University of Toronto, Technische Universitat, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care, and the US National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.

Theywere found to be the leading cause of disability amongall groups of disorders. In fact, they ranked higher, asmeasured by years lived with disability (YLDs), than allcommunicable disease (including HIV/AIDs), maternaland neonatal disorders, cancers, and cardiovasculardisease, highlighting their significant role in populationhealth. When premature mortality and disability wereconsidered together (disability-adjusted life years,DALYs), they directly accounted for 7.4% of all diseaseburden, more than HIV/tuberculosis, diabetes, or trans-port injuries.While the findings of a high burden, similar to earlierGBD studies, are not unexpected, major changes to theway GBD 2010 was carried out make the findings moresurprising than most in the psychiatric community realize.The neuropsychiatric grouping used in GBD 1990 wasdisaggregated, with neurological disorders now con-sidered a separate category. The number of mentaland substance use disorders was increased. Anxietydisorders were considered together, compared with three(panic disorder, obsessive compulsive disorder and post-traumatic stress disorder), each modeled separately, inGBD 1990. Bipolar disorder in GBD 2010 was expandedto include cyclothymic disorder, and depressive disordersincluded major depressive disorder (MDD) and dysthy-mia. Substance use disorders were expanded to estimatedrug-specific burden for alcohol dependence, opioiddependence, cannabis dependence, cocaine depen-dence, and amphetamine dependence. Eating disorders(anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa), childhoodbehavioral disorders (attention-deficit hyperactivity dis-order and conduct disorder), pervasive developmentaldisorders (autism and Asperger’s disorder) were includedthis time. The inclusion of childhood disorders isparticularly important in regions such as Africa, wherechildren constitute up to 40% of the total population.Idiopathic intellectual disability was included as a mentaldisorder, but dementia was recategorized as a neuro-logical disorder.In GBD 1990 and in its 1999-2004 updates, the rankingof disorders in terms of disability relied heavily on expertopinion. This approach has been criticized.

Purpose of review The Global Burden of Disease study 2010 (GBD 2010) estimated regional and global burden of 291 diseases and 67 risk factors. Here, we provide an overview of the methodological approach taken to this work, as well as the challenges and limitations encountered in deriving the burden of mental and drug use disorders. Recent findings GBD 2010 estimated the burden of 11 mental disorders and four drug use disorders for 21 regions. This involved a systematic literature search for epidemiological data; setting lay case definitions; synthesizing available epidemiological data into an internally consistent disease model; and quantifying the associated disability and health outcomes, to derive region, sex, year and age-specific burden estimates. Notable challenges included the difficulty in deriving culturally comparable case definitions for mental and drug use disorders, the paucity of epidemiological data and the difficulty in capturing disability associated with mental and drug use disorders. Summary GBD 2010 findings demonstrated the major public health importance of mental and drug use disorders. The methodology used to estimate burden was more sophisticated than previous GBD studies, with some restrictions required in order to achieve defensible numerical measures of burden for mental and drug use disorders.

Anxiety disorders are increasingly acknowledged as a global health issue however an accurate picture of prevalence across populations is lacking. Empirical data are incomplete and inconsistent so alternate means of estimating prevalence are required to inform estimates for the new Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. We used a Bayesian meta‐regression approach which included empirical epidemiological data, expert prior information, study covariates and population characteristics. Reported are global and regional point prevalence for anxiety disorders in 2010. Point prevalence of anxiety disorders differed by up to three‐fold across world regions, ranging between 2.1% (1.8–2.5%) in East Asia and 6.1% (5.1–7.4%) in North Africa/Middle East. Anxiety was more common in Latin America; high income regions; and regions with a history of recent conflict. There was considerable uncertainty around estimates, particularly for regions where no data were available. Future research is required to examine whether variations in regional distributions of anxiety disorders are substantive differences or an artefact of cultural or methodological differences. This is a particular imperative where anxiety is consistently reported to be less common, and where it appears to be elevated, but uncertainty prevents the reporting of conclusive estimates. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

BackgroundPopulation-based studies provide the understanding of health-need required for effective public health policy and service-planning. Mental disorders are an important but, until recently, neglected agenda in global health. This paper reviews the coverage and limitations in global epidemiological data for mental disorders and suggests strategies to strengthen the data.MethodsSystematic reviews were conducted for population-based epidemiological studies in mental disorders to inform new estimates for the global burden of disease study. Estimates of population coverage were calculated, adjusted for study parameters (age, gender and sampling frames) to quantify regional coverage.ResultsOf the 77,000 data sources identified, fewer than 1% could be used for deriving national estimates of prevalence, incidence, remission, and mortality in mental disorders. The two major limitations were (1) highly variable regional coverage, and (2) important methodological issues that prevented synthesis across studies, including the use of varying case definitions, the selection of samples not allowing generalization, lack of standardized indicators, and incomplete reporting. North America and Australasia had the most complete prevalence data for mental disorders while coverage was highly variable across Europe, Latin America, and Asia Pacific, and poor in other regions of Asia and Africa. Nationally-representative data for incidence, remission, and mortality were sparse across most of the world.DiscussionRecent calls to action for global mental health were predicated on the high prevalence and disability of mental disorders. However, the global picture of disorders is inadequate for planning. Global data coverage is not commensurate with other important health problems, and for most of the world's population, mental disorders are invisible and remain a low priority.

BackgroundSummarizing the epidemiology of major depressive disorder (MDD) at a global level is complicated by significant heterogeneity in the data. The aim of this study is to present a global summary of the prevalence and incidence of MDD, accounting for sources of bias, and dealing with heterogeneity. Findings are informing MDD burden quantification in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 Study.MethodA systematic review of prevalence and incidence of MDD was undertaken. Electronic databases Medline, PsycINFO and EMBASE were searched. Community-representative studies adhering to suitable diagnostic nomenclature were included. A meta-regression was conducted to explore sources of heterogeneity in prevalence and guide the stratification of data in a meta-analysis.ResultsThe literature search identified 116 prevalence and four incidence studies. Prevalence period, sex, year of study, depression subtype, survey instrument, age and region were significant determinants of prevalence, explaining 57.7% of the variability between studies. The global point prevalence of MDD, adjusting for methodological differences, was 4.7% (4.4–5.0%). The pooled annual incidence was 3.0% (2.4–3.8%), clearly at odds with the pooled prevalence estimates and the previously reported average duration of 30 weeks for an episode of MDD.ConclusionsOur findings provide a comprehensive and up-to-date profile of the prevalence of MDD globally. Region and study methodology influenced the prevalence of MDD. This needs to be considered in the GBD 2010 study and in investigations into the ecological determinants of MDD. Good-quality estimates from low-/middle-income countries were sparse. More accurate data on incidence are also required.

BackgroundThe literature describing the global prevalence of anxiety disorders is highly variable. A systematic review and meta-regression were undertaken to estimate the prevalence of anxiety disorders and to identify factors that may influence these estimates. The findings will inform the new Global Burden of Disease study.MethodA systematic review identified prevalence studies of anxiety disorders published between 1980 and 2009. Electronic databases, reference lists, review articles and monographs were searched and experts then contacted to identify missing studies. Substantive and methodological factors associated with inter-study variability were identified through meta-regression analyses and the global prevalence of anxiety disorders was calculated adjusting for study methodology.ResultsThe prevalence of anxiety disorders was obtained from 87 studies across 44 countries. Estimates of current prevalence ranged between 0.9% and 28.3% and past-year prevalence between 2.4% and 29.8%. Substantive factors including gender, age, culture, conflict and economic status, and urbanicity accounted for the greatest proportion of variability. Methodological factors in the final multivariate model (prevalence period, number of disorders and diagnostic instrument) explained an additional 13% of variance between studies. The global current prevalence of anxiety disorders adjusted for methodological differences was 7.3% (4.8–10.9%) and ranged from 5.3% (3.5–8.1%) in African cultures to 10.4% (7.0–15.5%) in Euro/Anglo cultures.ConclusionsAnxiety disorders are common and the substantive and methodological factors identified here explain much of the variability in prevalence estimates. Specific attention should be paid to cultural differences in responses to survey instruments for anxiety disorders.

BACKGROUND: Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS: We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS: In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION: Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is a major health issue in Queensland, Australia, which has the world's highest incidence. Recent molecular and epidemiologic studies suggest that CMM arises through multiple etiological pathways involving gene–environment interactions. Understanding the potential mechanisms leading to CMM requires larger studies than those previously conducted. This article describes the design and baseline characteristics of Q-MEGA, the Queensland Study of Melanoma: Environmental and Genetic Associations, which followed up 4 population-based samples of CMM patients in Queensland, including children, adolescents, men aged over 50, and a large sample of adult cases and their families, including twins. Q-MEGA aims to investigate the roles of genetic and environmental factors, and their interaction, in the etiology of melanoma. Three thousand, four hundred and seventy-one participants took part in the follow-up study and were administered a computer-assisted telephone interview in 2002–2005. Updated data on environmental and phenotypic risk factors, and 2777 blood samples were collected from interviewed participants as well as a subset of relatives. This study provides a large and well-described population-based sample of CMM cases with follow-up data. Characteristics of the cases and repeatability of sun exposure and phenotype measures between the baseline and the follow-up surveys, from 6 to 17 years later, are also described.

Metabolic syndrome is associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes, and appears to be widely prevalent in both developed and developing countries. While lifestyle modification is recommended for management of the syndrome, the dietary pattern most beneficial for patients is yet to be ascertained. Original research papers from the Medline database were examined for dietary patterns that may be associated with the syndrome. Three large-scale epidemiological studies were found fitting our criteria. Dietary patterns high in fruit and vegetable content were generally found to be associated with lower prevalence of metabolic syndrome. Diet patterns with high meat intake were frequently associated with components of metabolic syndrome, particularly impaired glucose tolerance. High dairy intake was generally associated with reduced risk for components of metabolic syndrome with some inconsistency in the literature regarding risk of obesity. Minimally processed cereals appeared to be associated with decreased risk of metabolic syndrome, while highly processed cereals with high glycaemic index are associated with higher risk. Fried foods were noticeably absent from any dietary pattern associated with decreased prevalence of metabolic syndrome. The conclusion of this review is that no individual dietary component could be considered wholly responsible for the association of diet with metabolic syndrome. Rather it is the overall quality of the diet that appears to offer protection against lifestyle disease such as metabolic syndrome. Further research is required into conditions, such as overweight and obesity, which may influence the effect of diet on the development of metabolic syndrome.

Melanoma runs within families, but this may be due to either shared genetic or shared environmental influences within those families. The concordance between pairs of non-identical twins compared to that between identical twins can be used to determine whether familial aggregation is due to genetic or environmental factors. Mandatory reporting of melanoma cases in the state of Queensland yielded approximately 12,000 cases between 1982 and 1990. Twins in this study and from the adjacent state of New South Wales (125 pairs in total) were used to partition variation in liability to melanoma into genetic and environmental factors. Identical twins were more concordant for melanoma (4 of 27 pairs) than non-identical twins (3 of 98 pairs; P-value approximately 0.04). Identical co-twins of affected individuals were 9.8 times more likely to be affected than by chance. However, non-identical co-twins of affected individuals were only 1.8 times more likely to be affected than by chance. An MZ:DZ recurrence risk ratio of 5.6 suggests that some of the genetic influences on melanoma are due to epistatic (gene-gene) interactions. Using these data and population prevalences, it was estimated that 55% of the variation in liability to melanoma is due to genetic influences.

International audience; BACKGROUND: Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS: We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS: Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2*503 billion) to 2010 (2*490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION: Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A comprehensive revision of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is expected to be completed in 2012. This study utilizes a broad range of improved methods for assessing burden, including closer attention to empirically derived estimates of disability. The aim of this paper is to describe how GBD health states were derived for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. These will be used in deriving health state-specific disability estimates. A literature review was first conducted to settle on a parsimonious set of health states for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. A second review was conducted to investigate the proportion of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder cases experiencing these health states. These were pooled using a quality-effects model to estimate the overall proportion of cases in each state. The two schizophrenia health states were acute (predominantly positive symptoms) and residual (predominantly negative symptoms). The three bipolar disorder health states were depressive, manic, and residual. Based on estimates from six studies, 63% (38%-82%) of schizophrenia cases were in an acute state and 37% (18%-62%) were in a residual state. Another six studies were identified from which 23% (10%-39%) of bipolar disorder cases were in a manic state, 27% (11%-47%) were in a depressive state, and 50% (30%-70%) were in a residual state. This literature review revealed salient gaps in the literature that need to be addressed in future research. The pooled estimates are indicative only and more data are required to generate more definitive estimates. That said, rather than deriving burden estimates that fail to capture the changes in disability within schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, the derived proportions and their wide uncertainty intervals will be used in deriving disability estimates.

Background Mental disorders are associated with a considerable burden of disease as well as being risk factors for other health outcomes. The new Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study will make estimates for both the disability and mortality directly associated with mental disorders, as well as the burden attributable to other health outcomes. Herein we discuss the process by which health outcomes in which mental disorders are risk factors are selected for inclusion in the GBD Study. We make suggestions for future research to strengthen the body of evidence for mental disorders as risk factors. Methods We identified a list of potential associations between mental disorders and subsequent health outcomes based on a review of the literature and consultation with mental health experts. A two-stage filter was applied to identify mental disorders and health outcomes that meet the criteria for inclusion in the GBD Study. Major limitations in the current literature are discussed and illustrated with examples identified during our review. Results and discussion Only two associations are included in the new GBD Study. These associations are the increased risk of ischemic heart disease with major depression and mental disorders as a risk factor for suicide. There is evidence that mental disorders are independent risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes and injuries. However, these associations were unable to be included because of insufficient data. The most common reasons for exclusion were inconsistent identification of 'cases', uncertain validity of health outcomes, lack of generalizability, insufficient control for confounding factors and lack of evidence for temporality. Conclusions CVD, type 2 diabetes and injury are important public health policy areas. Prospective community studies of outcomes in patients with mental disorders are required, and their design must address a range of confounding factors.

Background: Cardiovascular disease and mental health both hold enormous public health importance, both ranking highly in results of the recent Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). For the first time, the GBD 2010 has systematically and quantitatively assessed major depression as an independent risk factor for the development of ischemic heart disease (IHD) using comparative risk assessment methodology. Methods: A pooled relative risk (RR) was calculated from studies identified through a systematic review with strict inclusion criteria designed to provide evidence of independent risk factor status. Accepted case definitions of depression include diagnosis by a clinician or by non-clinician raters adhering to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) or International Classification of Diseases (ICD) classifications. We therefore refer to the exposure in this paper as major depression as opposed to the DSM-IV category of major depressive disorder (MDD). The population attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated using the pooled RR estimate. Attributable burden was calculated by multiplying the PAF by the underlying burden of IHD estimated as part of GBD 2010. Results: The pooled relative risk of developing IHD in those with major depression was 1.56 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.87). Globally there were almost 4 million estimated IHD disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which can be attributed to major depression in 2010; 3.5 million years of life lost and 250,000 years of life lived with a disability. These findings highlight a previously underestimated mortality component of the burden of major depression. As a proportion of overall IHD burden, 2.95% (95% CI 1.48 to 4.46%) of IHD DALYs were estimated to be attributable to MDD in 2010. Eastern Europe and North Africa/Middle East demonstrate the highest proportion with Asia Pacific, high income representing the lowest. Conclusions: The present work comprises the most robust systematic review of its kind to date. The key finding that major depression may be responsible for approximately 3% of global IHD DALYs warrants assessment for depression in patients at high risk of developing IHD or at risk of a repeat IHD event.