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Home Water-Energy-Food Nexus and Climate Change in Cities Chapter Water-Energy-Food Nexus Under Climate Change: Analyzing Different Regional Socio-ecological Contexts in Brazil Lincoln M. Alves, Jean P. H. B. Ometto, Gustavo F. B. Arcoverde, Evandro A. Branco & Peter Toledo Chapter First Online: 16 November 2022 244 Accesses Part of the Sustainable Development Goals Series book series (SDGS) Abstract Climate change, which has been associated with emerging and even elevated risks on the safety and well-being of societies, has already proved to be a significant challenge in todays world. Furthermore, a new set of IPCC climate projections reveals that rainfall and high-temperature extremes are expected to exceed the extreme conditions already experienced in Brazil. Such conditions are expressed by several events such as the drought and water crisis in the southeastern region in 20142015; drought in the northeast region during 20102016; and droughts in Amazonia in 2005, 2010, and 2016 and floods in 2009. These extreme events place several challenges on health, infrastructure, agriculture, biodiversity, and water resources, and therefore with significant environmental and socioeconomic implications. A major focus of this chapter is to provide elements to better inform users from government, organizations, professionals, and individuals on how climate change is likely to impact the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus in Brazil. For that purpose, two case studies will be discussed: (i) why a nexus approach to resource management is important for Cerrado and Caatinga biome, Brazils largest available stock of land for agricultural expansion and renewable energy production (NEXUS Project), and (ii) we analyzed the Paraíba do Sul river basin, which encloses one of the most developed and industrialized regions in Brazil. The first case refers to the development of analyses on the transformation for sustainability in the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes, considering the construction, isbn: 9783031054, Pages: 59-75

Climate change, which has been associated with emerging and even elevated risks on the safety and well-being of societies, has already proved to be a signicant challenge in todays world. Furthermore, a new set of IPCC climate projections reveals that rainfall and hightemperature extremes are expected to exceed the extreme conditions already experienced in Brazil. Such conditions are expressed by several events such as the drought and water crisis in the southeastern region in 20142015; drought in the northeast region during 2010 2016; and droughts in Amazonia in 2005, 2010, and 2016 and oods in 2009. These extreme events place several challenges on health, infrastructure, agriculture, biodiversity, and water resources, and therefore with signicant environmental and socioeconomic implications. A major focus of this chapter is to provide elements to better inform users from government, organizations, professionals, and individuals on how climate change is likely to impact the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus in Brazil. For that purpose, two case studies will be discussed: (i) why a nexus approach to resource management is important for Cerrado and Caatinga biome, Brazils largest available stock of land for agricultural expansion and renewable energy production (NEXUS Project), and (ii) we analyzed the Paraíba do Sul river basin, which encloses one of the most developed and industrialized regions in Brazil. The rst case refers to the development of analyses on the transformation for sustainability in the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes, considering the construction of scenarios and indicators, built through a participatory approach. The identication and construction of indicators were carried out in a collaborative way with experts using the 2030 Agenda target framework., isbn: 9783031054, Volume: 1, Pages: 1-341

Climate change, which has been associated with emerging and even elevated risks on the safety and well-being of societies, has already proved to be a significant challenge in todays world. Furthermore, a new set of IPCC climate projections reveals that rainfall and high-temperature extremes are expected to exceed the extreme conditions already experienced in Brazil. Such conditions are expressed by several events such as the drought and water crisis in the southeastern region in 20142015; drought in the northeast region during 20102016; and droughts in Amazonia in 2005, 2010, and 2016 and floods in 2009. These extreme events place several challenges on health, infrastructure, agriculture, biodiversity, and water resources, and therefore with significant environmental and socioeconomic implications. A major focus of this chapter is to provide elements to better inform users from government, organizations, professionals, and individuals on how climate change is likely to impact the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus in Brazil. For that purpose, two case studies will be discussed: (i) why a nexus approach to resource management is important for Cerrado and Caatinga biome, Brazils largest available stock of land for agricultural expansion and renewable energy production (NEXUS Project), and (ii) we analyzed the Paraíba do Sul river basin, which encloses one of the most developed and industrialized regions in Brazil. The first case refers to the development of analyses on the transformation for sustainability in the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes, considering the construction of scenarios and indicators, built through a participatory approach. The identification and construction of indicators were carried out in a collaborative way with experts using the 2030 Agenda target framework., Pages: 59-75

Pages: 53-68

The objective of this work is to assess the projections of climate change in the city of Santos. The assessment is based on the downscaling of two global climate model simulations using the Eta Regional Climate Model at 20-km and 5-km resolutions, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the period between 1961 and 2100. The higher horizontal resolution simulations reproduce in more detail the surface characteristics, such as the topography, vegetation cover, and coastline, and capture the extreme climate events. Evaluation of the model simulations of the present climate show reasonable agreement with observed climatology. Frequency distributions of precipitation and temperature values show that the 5-km run approaches the observed precipitation better than the 20-km resolution run. The assessment of climate change projections indicates that warming in the region reaches about 2 °C until the end of the twenty-first century, and that precipitation reduces in the entire region. Trends of climatic extreme indices show increase of hot days, warm nights, and in the length of consecutive dry days with the increase of the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Projections of the minimum surface pressure off the coast of Southeast Brazil show weakening tendency under RCP8.5 scenario., Pages: 59-73

The Amazonian forests ability to provide environmental services is threatened by anthropogenic forcing at various scales, such as deforestation, fire, global and regional climate change, and extreme events. In addition to the impacts resulting from each one of these drivers, the synergistic effects potentially increase the risks. In the light of the above, this chapter aims to evaluate the future prospects for the Amazon in a scenario of 4 °C or higher warming resulting from anthropogenic climate change and the related hydrological cycle changes. Future climate scenarios project progressively higher warming that may exceed 4 °C in Amazonia in the second half of the century, particularly during the dry season in the region. Associated with these scenarios, it is projected a reduction of precipitation year-round, being a substantial reduction predominantly in the dry and transition seasons and smaller reductions of the order of 5% for the SH summer. Evaluating the consequences of such substantial climatic change, several negative effects in Amazonia can be anticipated, including short-term hydrological changes similar to the events associated to the extreme 2005 and 2010 droughts, and longer time-scale modifications of broad scale characteristics such as different biome distribution. Based on hydrological models, it is generally expected a reduction in river discharges associated to precipitation decreases and temperature increases brought about by projected climate change, but with the magnitude of the changes differing between models. The future climate change scenarios imply important changes in biomes distribution over Amazonia, with potential expansion of savannah and caatinga over large areas currently occupied by tropical forests. It is necessary a reduction to nearly zero in tropical deforestation and reducing land-cover emissions and mitigating climate change to avoid a dangerous interference with the ability of natural ecosystems to adapt to these possible c, Pages: 201-218

Analysis of extreme precipitation events in different time scales over Santos is presented using the rain gauge network for the period 19802015. Located in the humid tropics, the area presents high annual total rainfall, particularly concentrated in spring and summer. However, the rainiest monthJanuarywas also the one with the most homogeneous distribution. More than 40% of the days presented precipitation, which ranged from 0.1 to 332.9 mm. The precipitation variability was quite high, a fact observed in all scales evaluated, which reveals that the mechanisms that generate precipitation in the area are distinct throughout the year. The high precipitation variability is particularly important in the case of daily distribution: for instance, 25% of the rainy days responded for 71% of the total rainfall. Such concentration is a key element in the outbreak of numerous hazards, such as floods and landslides, that cause extensive property damage and loss of life, being the worst situations registered when extreme precipitation episodes coincide with storm surges., Pages: 45-57

The South America Pantanal is a large floodplain wetland in the center of the Upper Paraguay River Basin, which has a total area of around 360,000 km2. Large sectors of the Pantanal floodplain are submerged from 4 to 8 months each year by water depths from a few centimeters to more than 2 m. Changes in rainfall and temperature and also on land use can affect significantly the flood season with severe consequences for downstream inhabitants. However, impact of climate change on wetlands is small so far compared to the damage caused by the lack of management at the local level due to land-use change. In this chapter we assess climate and hydrology variability for the present and projections of climate change using the global climate models from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Projections show that by the end of the century, temperatures can increase up to 7°C and rainfall can decrease in both summer and particularly winter. The possibility of longer dry spells and increased evaporation may affect the water balance in the region. However, uncertainties on climate projections are still high, particular for rainfall., Pages: 227-238

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Extremos climáticos de chuva, temperatura e vento podem ter um impacto importante na vida das pessoas. Excepcionalmente, os extremos podem ter resultado no desaparecimento de civilizações, a exemplo da dinastia maia, que pode ter sucumbido por uma sucessão de secas severas (Hunt; Elliott, 2002). Em geral, estudos observacionais de extremos climáticos são limitados pelas dificuldades de obtenção de séries temporais longas e homogêneas de dados climáticos capazes de registrá-los. Embora existam séries temporais relativamente longas em muitas partes do globo, os conjuntos de dados disponíveis para a bacia amazônica normalmente são escassos e limitados. Por causa dessas limitações, evidências paleoecológicas tornam-se ferramentas válidas para avaliar o histórico de secas e/ou enchentes no passado, apesar de alguma incerteza nas análises., Pages: 21-27

Neste capítulo são apresentadas as configurações de anomalias de precipitação sobre a América do Sul e anomalias de temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM) nos anos de seca na Amazônia. Para efeito de análise complementar, são apresentados também campos de outras variáveis, tais como anomalias do escoamento atmosférico em altos e baixos níveis, movimento vertical e convergência de umidade de alguns casos de secas na Amazônia. O escoamento atmosférico indica o comportamento dos ventos, e a convergência de umidade apresenta as regiões para onde a umidade da atmosfera está sendo transportada. O período-base para o cálculo das anomalias é de 1971 a 2000, considerado pela Organização Meteorológica Mundial (OMM) como o ideal para representar a climatologia atual. Os dados de precipitação utilizados para as análises sobre a América do Sul são provenientes do Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) (Rudolf; Schneider, 2005). Os campos de TSM foram obtidos dos dados de ERSST.v3 (Smith et al., 2008), e os outros campos são baseados em informações provenientes da reanálise NCEP/NCAR (Kalnay et al., 1996)., Pages: 54-56

A região amazônica, por sua grande extensão territorial, possui regimes climáticos diferenciados. De norte a sul, observa-se uma grande variabilidade espacial e temporal da precipitação, na qual os eventos extremos de secas ou enchentes trazem consequências socioeconômicas importantes para vários setores da sociedade (agricultura, transportes, recursos hídricos, saúde, habitação)., Pages: 49-53

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A região Centro_oeste tem uma área de aproxim adamente 1.607.000 km2, que corresponde a 18% do território brasileiro, sendo formada pelos Estados de Goiás, Mato Grosso do SUl, Mato Grosso e o Distrito Federal. Localizada no extenso Planalto Central, é conhecido principalmente pela diversidade de sua vegetação, tendo o pantanal com a maior área alagada do mundo e uma grnade biodiversidade. Na região de planalto, predomina a vegetação de cerrado., Pages: 235-241